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Start Scottish Government presentation for 9 October 2026 - #70
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Rebuild the 9 October deck as a follow-up to the February and March presentations, without repeating their material: 1. New data pipeline and property income: what changed since the Enhanced FRS, Scotland in the new build, release checks with two validation comparisons, the property income concept problem and the model and data fixes (policyengine-uk #2172 merged, Microcosm #1145 in progress). 2. Published work, April to October 2026: eight linked cards with cover images, plus the latest Scotland-specific dashboard and the research library. 3. Plan for the Autumn Budget: what is new this year, how Budget day will run, and where the Scottish Government's input would help. Sources are pinned to microcosm 75167a68 and policyengine-uk f1a9a3cc. Every slide link was checked. Drops the unused 2025 dashboard screenshot. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
…Government deck Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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This branch link redeploys automatically on every push to this PR. It sits behind Vercel login until the preview is made public or the PR merges; after merging, the deck is at https://policyengine.org/slides/scottish-government-2026. |
Open each part with a section slide: Scotland's microdata, property income, an analysis example, published work and the Autumn Budget. - Replace the overview, imputation and calibration diagrams with one pipeline graph that names the sources feeding each stage, and the three target cards with a table of Scotland's 1,915 target rows by family, source and level. - Show what each source measures as one bar of HMRC's rent received, and which data informs each piece of landlords' income as a grid, following Microcosm #1145. - Fill the energy placeholder with the targeted energy bill discount (uk-energy-reforms 14bf3b0): eligibility by region and the average gain across Scotland's income deciles, linked to the dashboard. Move it before the published work. - Fit every slide at 1280x720, 1366x768, 1440x900 and 1920x1080. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
The starting-point slide shows the 2025 dashboard and the 2025 in review dashboard as two equal cards, each with a screenshot and a link, so it is clear both open. The review's repository moves to the sources line. Section slides use the plain white background. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Slide 9 becomes a two-lane diagram of how landlords' income is built, following Microcosm #1145: survey landlords (FRS households, mortgage interest added back) and tax-record copies (copied households, SPI incomes drawn) merge into rent received, calibration and tax, each step naming the data that informs it. Part 1 is titled the UK's microdata, and the pipeline weights to UK totals. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Slide 8 starts from HMRC's rent received and takes off allowable expenses and mortgage interest in turn, naming what each step removes and which source counts each total: taxable profit (the SPI) and rent after mortgage payments (the FRS, drawn as an upper bound). Slide 9's footnote now says the work is in progress instead of naming the PR. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
The survey's rent after mortgage payments is now a measured total: FRS 2024-25 grossed up, £15.4bn from the 1.75m landlords reporting a profit. The step before it is the £4.4bn between profit after all costs and that total: mortgage capital the survey also takes off, and landlords it misses. Slide 4's title says the population represents the UK. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
- The live calibration dashboard slide is out of the slide order: on 9 October its embed showed "HF fetch failed 401" and a private dataset name. The component stays, ready to add back once the dashboard loads. - The waterfall callout names the Enhanced FRS as the dataset that treated about £55bn as taxable property income, and the fine print says the figures are UK totals. - The £31bn taxable-profit bar is derived from HMRC's rental statistics; its note now gives the SPI's own £29.4bn for 2023-24. - Speaker notes are renumbered for 17 slides and cover what the current Microcosm release holds for property income (Microcosm #1106). Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
- Targets: titled "Scottish targets in the Microcosm UK build". Only the 58 Scotland-wide rows are in the national release; the 1,857 council and constituency rows are for the local-area build, still in validation. - Pipeline: names Microcosm UK and marks the Output Area stage as the local-area build, which the national release skips. - Property income: the Enhanced FRS, still the website's UK default, multiplies SPI profit by 1.9, so it treats about £56bn as taxable, more than the rent itself. The step diagram says which steps are released and which come from draft Microcosm #1145, and links it. - Energy discount: describes RF's £2bn option for early 2027, modelled as £175 per eligible household; Scotland's figures are eligibility at full take-up; the decile chart gives its sample sizes. - Published work: the land value tax card shows the post's decile chart in place of a campaign-rally photo; the income tax card names Reform UK Scotland's proposal and drops the UK Government signage. - Budgets: the Scottish Budget 2026-27 dashboard replaces the unlaunched Autumn Budget 2025 in review card (its repository is private); the plan gives 28 October and 3 December, and reconciles with the SFC's forecasts at the Scottish Budget, since the SFC doesn't cost UK Budget measures. - Speaker notes cover crediting Helen for the HMRC clarification, Scotland's landlord sample, take-up, and likely questions. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
- The electricity VAT card gets a plain 5% to 0% cover in place of a press photo of the Prime Minister. - Notes: we costed the cut on 21 July, the day it was announced, rather than before it was enacted; and Scotland's household total is calibrated to the council tax base (2.62m chargeable dwellings), which is why it sits about 2% above NRS's household count. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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Open the public Scottish Government deck preview. This public deployment follows the branch. The Vercel bot also links a deployment in the
policy-engineteam that requires Vercel sign-in; use this public link to present or share the deck. Public deployment roots redirect from/to/slides.Adds an 18-slide presentation for the Scottish Government meeting on 9 October 2026, in five parts. Each part opens with a section slide.
l0-ima-2026shows five stages, each with the sources that feed it: the FRS, the SPI, the surveys used to fill gaps, NRS Output Areas, and the official statistics the weights match. A table lists Scotland's 1,915 target rows by target type, source and level. The live UK diagnostics dashboard is embedded.The figures are drawn in HTML and CSS in
slides/figures.tsx, with no chart library. Presenter details, pinned sources, cover images and speaker notes accompany the deck.The earlier demo source was recovered from policyengine-demo PR #1 and PR #2. The new presentation follows those meetings. The 2026 Budget part describes a plan, since its development repository still contains inherited 2025 measures.
The Vercel routing configuration redirects only the deployment root to the existing slide library. This fixes the automatic PR preview button, which otherwise returns 404 because Next.js is mounted at
/slides.Sources and figures
75167a68: 58 Scotland-wide rows, 831 rows across 32 council areas and 1,026 across 57 Westminster constituencies. The slide labels these as target definitions; the local-area release is still being validated.uk-energy-reforms14bf3b0: 2026-27, Microcosm UK national release, policyengine-uk 2.102.3.Validation
This remains a draft for presentation edits.
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