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Extend LA council tax to all eight bands (MHCLG Table 9, 2026-27) - #482

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@vahid-ahmadi vahid-ahmadi commented Sep 15, 2026 •

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What changed

  • storage/la_council_tax.csv: adds eight columns, band_A_amount … band_H_amount, populated for all 296 English billing authorities. All pre-existing columns and all 360 rows are untouched — verified cell-by-cell against HEAD (0 rows of drift in the original 16 columns).
  • storage/build_la_council_tax.py (new): reproducible builder. Downloads the MHCLG workbook, parses Table_9 from the ODS with zipfile + xml.etree (honouring table:number-columns-repeated; no odfpy/pandas ODS engine needed), re-maps the post-2023 South Yorkshire ONS codes, and rewrites only the new columns. Every other cell is round-tripped as its literal text, so a re-run is a no-op (md5-identical on the second run).
  • targets/sources/la_council_tax.py: module docstring only — documents the new columns, their England-only provenance, and the rebuild script. No behaviour change; get_targets() output is unchanged.
  • tests/test_la_council_tax_targets.py: seven new tests (see below).
  • Changelog fragment changelog.d/la-council-tax-all-bands.added.md.

There is no existing builder directory in this repo — la_council_tax.csv was hand-built in #374 with no committed script. I put the builder in policyengine_uk_data/storage/, alongside download_private_prerequisites.py / upload_completed_datasets.py, as the closest existing pattern. Happy to move it if you'd rather it lived elsewhere.

Data source

MHCLG, Council tax levels set by local authorities in England: 2026 to 2027
https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/council-tax-levels-set-by-local-authorities-in-england-2026-to-2027

Workbook: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/69de1fa63e81003ae0422508/Tables_1-9_2026-27.ods, sheet Table_9 — "Area council tax for a dwelling occupied by two adults by band, 2026 to 2027". 296 English authority rows, bands A–H, inclusive of all precepts.

England only. Table 9 has no Welsh or Scottish coverage, so the 22 Welsh, 32 Scottish and 10 NI rows leave all eight new columns blank rather than inheriting an English figure. Wales additionally has a Band I and Scotland has used non-statutory band ratios since the 2017 reform, so neither could be back-filled from Band D anyway. A test enforces the blanks.

Band-ratio verification

Checked every one of the 296 authorities against the statutory ratios (A=6/9, B=7/9, C=8/9, D=1, E=11/9, F=13/9, G=15/9, H=18/9 of Band D). All 296 obey the ratios. Worst absolute deviation by band:

Band Max deviation Authorities over £0.01
A £0.0033 0
B £0.0044 0
C £0.0044 0
D £0.0000 0
E £0.0044 0
F £0.0044 0
G £0.0033 0
H £0.0000 0

That is pure independent-to-the-penny rounding (at most half a penny per band). No authority deviates and nothing in the source was altered. The test tolerance is £0.01, comfortably above the observed £0.0044 worst case.

Year attribution (step 3) — no change was needed

I checked before touching anything: band_d_amount for England already holds the 2026-27 Table 9 Band D figure, exactly, for all 294 English LAs whose ONS code matches directly (max difference £0.00); the remaining two are the South Yorkshire code re-map below, which also match. _YEAR_BAND_D_ENGLAND is already 2026 and _ENGLAND_REF already points at the 2026-27 release.

So _year_for_band_d, _ref_for_band_d and the reference URL are unchanged, and no target's year attribution moved. The builder still writes band_d_amount from Table 9 so the file stays reproducible, but on today's data that write is a no-op. The new band_D_amount column duplicates band_d_amount for England by construction; a test asserts they agree exactly.

South Yorkshire code re-map

MHCLG uses the post-2023 codes E08000038 (Barnsley) and E08000039 (Sheffield); local_authorities_2021.csv uses E08000016 / E08000019. The builder re-maps them, confirmed by authority name. Their Band D values also matched the existing CSV exactly.

Tests

Added to test_la_council_tax_targets.py:

  • row count is still 360;
  • ONS codes are unique;
  • all eight band_*_amount columns exist;
  • all 296 England rows have all eight amounts non-null;
  • all 64 non-England rows have all eight blank;
  • statutory band ratios hold within £0.01;
  • band_D_amount == band_d_amount for England.
$ uv run --python 3.13 pytest -q -m "not slow"
528 passed, 108 skipped, 5 deselected, 1 xfailed, 3 warnings in 97.38s

uv run ruff format . reformatted my two files (now clean). uv run ruff check . reports 61 errors — the identical count with my changes stashed, i.e. entirely pre-existing on origin/main (verified by stashing and re-running, not assumed). None are in code this PR adds.

What I could NOT verify / gaps

  • No target is emitted from the new columns. get_targets() is unchanged, so the band-amount columns are currently data-only, for downstream band-level work. Wiring them into the loss matrix would ripple into test_la_loss_council_tax.py and felt out of scope here — flagging as follow-up rather than doing it silently.
  • The workbook URL is hard-coded to the current assets.publishing.service.gov.uk media path rather than scraped from the release page (as voa_council_tax.py does). It will need updating for 2027-28. Scraping would be more robust; say the word and I'll switch it.
  • I did not cross-check Table 9 against Table 8a (average council tax per authority), so I can't independently confirm Table 9's consistency with the rest of the release beyond the ratio check above.
  • Wales and Scotland remain Band D only. Extending them needs the Welsh Government and Scottish Government publications — separate sources, separate piece of work.

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

Adds band_A_amount..band_H_amount to storage/la_council_tax.csv for the
296 English billing authorities, taken from MHCLG "Council tax levels
set by local authorities in England 2026-27", Tables_1-9_2026-27.ods,
sheet Table_9 ("Area council tax for a dwelling occupied by two adults
by band"). The columns are England only: Table 9 does not cover Wales
or Scotland, so those rows stay blank, and NI has no council tax.

Adds storage/build_la_council_tax.py, which downloads the workbook,
parses the ODS with zipfile plus ElementTree (no odfpy dependency),
re-maps the post-2023 South Yorkshire ONS codes to the pre-2023 codes
used by local_authorities_2021.csv, and rewrites only the new columns.
Every pre-existing cell is round-tripped as its literal text, so the
build is idempotent.

band_d_amount already held the 2026-27 Table 9 Band D figure for all
294 directly-matching English LAs, and _YEAR_BAND_D_ENGLAND / the
England reference URL already point at 2026-27, so no year attribution
changed.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>

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Approving as a data-only change. The useful result is the ratio check: all 296 authorities are exact ninths of Band D to within half a penny, so the eight columns carry nothing beyond Band D and the statutory ratios. That settles how Microcosm treats them: no port and no Chronicle ask, since our route is the published Band D fact times the ratio parameter, and, as #484 says, none of these amounts may ever become an additive target.

Three nits, none blocking:

  • band_D_amount duplicates band_d_amount for England by construction. The test guards the pair, but one column is simpler and cannot desync on a refresh.
  • The builder rewrites band_d_amount for England from Table 9 whenever it differs by more than half a penny. That is a no-op today, but on a future refresh it silently moves that column's provenance from Table 10 to Table 9 without a log line. Print the count of rewritten Band D cells.
  • The hard-coded asset URL is fine for now; scraping the release page the way voa_council_tax.py does can wait for the 2027-28 refresh.

Once this and #484 both land, we re-pin the Microcosm inventory sha256s for the loader and the test file.

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

Drops the duplicate band_D_amount column (nothing in uk-data reads it;
English values were identical to band_d_amount), so the pair cannot
desync on a refresh. The builder now prints how many band_d_amount cells
it rewrote from Table 9, since each rewrite moves that cell's source
from Table 10. Addresses review nits on #482.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@juaristi22

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Review of #482 — Extend LA council tax to all eight bands (MHCLG Table 9, 2026-27)

Base repository: PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk-data
PR number: 482
Reviewed head SHA: 4fc43cc
Merge base SHA: 4b032a7
Mode: full
Scope: changed behavior and affected dependencies
Source evidence: Official sources are linked below; local source copies and validation artifacts were retained.
Review status: COMPLETE

Source Documents

Critical

None.

Should Address

None.

Suggestions

None.

Evidence Gaps

No material gaps reported.

Notes

  • PR description is stale: head adds seven new columns and preserves existing D.
  • Normal package pytest unavailable (microimpute); focused real-module tests passed; full-FRS cases skipped without dataset.
  • New per-band values are data-only; no population recalibration executed or required to validate their unchanged consumer path.

Validation Summary

40 passed, 14 skipped, focused snapshot module tests; official workbook builder reproduced committed CSV twice byte-identically; original 16 cells per row preserved; 3231 emitted targets exact equality to merge-base; pr-482-focused-pytest.log/pr-482-builder-diagnostic.log/pr-482-cell-preservation-diagnostic.json

2368 of 2368 official Table9 values matched exactly; all 296 code mappings checked; year £ units precepts country coverage and notes p/ac established; source/derivative manifest integrity passed; 2 originals 1 extract no PDF renders.

CI at 4fc43cc: Check changelog fragment=SUCCESS, Lint=SUCCESS, Validate bundle release manifest contract=SUCCESS, Test=IN_PROGRESS.

Detailed code, policy, source and reproduction artifacts were retained locally.

Timing

elapsed seconds: 1115.90s; setup seconds: 21.75s

Review Severity

APPROVE. Open findings: 0 critical, 0 should address, 0 suggestions.

juaristi22 added a commit to PolicyEngine/microcosm that referenced this pull request Oct 15, 2026
_local_contract_covers still keyed the local council-tax rows on the
voa.council_tax_stock.by_area. prefix that #929 retired, so the 25 mhclg,
welshgov and scotgov by-area rows covered only the LA loss module. They now
cover uk-data's la_council_tax source as well, ahead of the re-pin that
follows PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk-data#482 and
PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk-data#484.

Three stale texts are corrected while the register regenerates: the English
region concern names the taxbase rows and the nation grain, and the two
private-rent concerns describe the calendar-2025 PIPR series in the pinned
feed, not a June 2026 snapshot.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
juaristi22 added a commit to PolicyEngine/microcosm that referenced this pull request Oct 15, 2026
_local_contract_covers still keyed the local council-tax rows on the
voa.council_tax_stock.by_area. prefix that #929 retired, so the 25 mhclg,
welshgov and scotgov by-area rows covered only the LA loss module. They now
cover uk-data's la_council_tax source as well, ahead of the re-pin that
follows PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk-data#482 and
PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk-data#484.

Three stale texts are corrected while the register regenerates: the English
region concern names the taxbase rows and the nation grain, and the two
private-rent concerns describe the calendar-2025 PIPR series in the pinned
feed, not a June 2026 snapshot.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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Calibration fit against the base build: pass

Targets within 10% (those both builds have) Base Head Change
National (647) 64.6% 64.6% +0.0pp
Local (11,228) 75.0% 75.2% +0.2pp

A drop of more than 2.0% fails.

Notes

  • 10 national targets are in a better band on the head.

National targets in a worse error band on the head (9)

Target Base Head
dwp/uc/claimants_with_5+_children within 10% 25-50%
dwp/uc_payment_dist/COUPLE_NO_CHILDREN_annual_payment_4_800_to_6_000 within 10% 10-25%
dwp/uc_payment_dist/SINGLE_annual_payment_2_400_to_3_600 10-25% 25-50%
hmrc/dividend_income_count_income_band_50_000_to_70_000 10-25% 25-50%
hmrc/property_income_income_band_15_000_to_20_000 within 10% 10-25%
hmrc/self_employment_income_count_income_band_500_000_to_1_000_000 within 10% 10-25%
hmrc/state_pension_count_income_band_300_000_to_500_000 10-25% 25-50%
ons/north_east_age_10_19 within 10% 10-25%
slc/student_loan_repayment/northern_ireland within 10% 10-25%

Flags are for review: builds of the same code move 2 to 12 national targets to a worse band (#598). Bands are of |estimate / target - 1|; no target's estimate or error is published.

Workflow run

Income distribution and single ages against the base build: pass

HBAI FYE 2025 (DWP), period 2024: equivalised income in £ a week, rates and Gini in per cent. A value outside HBAI's 95% interval is marked (outside).

Measure Base Head HBAI 95% interval
median_bhc 678.42 (outside) 678.78 (outside) 719.48 703.57 to 735.58
median_ahc 584.31 (outside) 584.51 (outside) 623.14 605.21 to 637.07
mean_bhc 800.04 (outside) 802.11 (outside) 854.98 836.37 to 870.35
mean_ahc 691.43 (outside) 693.37 (outside) 749.82 732.33 to 764.50
gini_bhc 33.14 33.20 32.74 31.89 to 33.98
gini_ahc 38.44 (outside) 38.46 (outside) 36.78 35.90 to 38.29
relative_low_income_bhc_all 18.20 (outside) 17.95 (outside) 15.91 14.45 to 17.64
relative_low_income_bhc_children 23.87 23.22 20.52 17.36 to 23.96
relative_low_income_bhc_working_age 17.47 (outside) 17.23 (outside) 14.28 12.91 to 16.02
relative_low_income_bhc_pensioners 13.78 14.01 15.90 13.69 to 17.99
relative_low_income_ahc_all 23.47 (outside) 23.13 (outside) 19.64 17.99 to 21.27
relative_low_income_ahc_children 33.52 (outside) 32.58 (outside) 27.41 23.49 to 30.64
relative_low_income_ahc_working_age 23.16 (outside) 22.86 (outside) 18.58 17.01 to 20.34
relative_low_income_ahc_pensioners 12.07 12.37 13.87 11.62 to 15.90
Single ages against the ONS projection Base Head
Mean error, ages 0 to 79 11.0% 11.0%
Largest error, ages 0 to 79 44.0% 44.1%
Largest error, ages 15 to 19 36.9% 37.7%

Flags

None.

These measures report and flag but do not fail yet: their same-code spread is unmeasured (#598).

Aggregate impact of the data change: pass

Base dataset enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5 (the base's build, sha256 f12124e6b476) against head dataset enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5 (this pull request's build, sha256 f778aff9348c), both measured with policyengine-uk 2.122.2, fiscal years 2025-26 to 2031-32. Each year is a full microsimulation run on each side.

Checks: 0 broken by this change, 4 failing on both sides, 0 fixed. Moves flagged for review: 148 (thresholds in report_spec.yaml; a flag does not fail the job).

Workflow run and full report

Notes

  • In the years a figure from fewer than 10 records is suppressed (spending.dfe_education_spending, spending.disabled_students_allowance, spending.sda), every total containing it, and the decile incomes, are rebuilt from their other components, so no published total includes it. Those totals are marked †. A change is withheld where the two sides leave out different figures and can't be lined up.

Moves flagged for review

Measure Year Base Head Change
Extended childcare entitlement 2030-31 837k 805k -32.6k
Disability Living Allowance 2031-32 1,404k 1,364k -39.9k
Disability Living Allowance 2029-30 1,392k 1,352k -39.6k
Disability Living Allowance 2025-26 1,370k 1,331k -39.0k
Disability Living Allowance 2028-29 1,386k 1,346k -39.4k
Disability Living Allowance 2030-31 1,398k 1,358k -39.8k
Disability Living Allowance 2026-27 1,375k 1,336k -39.1k
Disability Living Allowance 2027-28 1,380k 1,341k -39.3k
Personal Independence Payment 2031-32 £35.43bn £35.85bn +£419.1m
Personal Independence Payment 2030-31 £34.58bn £34.99bn +£409.1m
Personal Independence Payment 2029-30 £33.75bn £34.15bn +£399.3m
Personal Independence Payment 2028-29 £32.95bn £33.34bn +£389.7m
Personal Independence Payment 2027-28 £32.17bn £32.55bn +£380.6m
Personal Independence Payment 2026-27 £31.33bn £31.70bn +£370.6m
Personal Independence Payment 2025-26 £30.07bn £30.42bn +£355.7m
Carer's Allowance 2031-32 925k 942k +16.7k
Carer's Allowance 2030-31 921k 938k +16.7k
Income tax 2025-26 £297.20bn £298.18bn +£985.7m
Carer's Allowance 2029-30 917k 933k +16.6k
Carer's Allowance 2028-29 913k 929k +16.5k
Carer's Allowance 2027-28 909k 926k +16.4k
Carer's Allowance 2026-27 906k 922k +16.4k
Carer's Allowance 2025-26 902k 919k +16.3k
Income tax 2026-27 £316.63bn £317.66bn +£1.03bn
Income tax 2027-28 £332.56bn £333.61bn +£1.05bn
Income tax 2028-29 £346.91bn £348.00bn +£1.08bn
Income tax 2029-30 £362.84bn £363.94bn +£1.10bn
Income tax 2030-31 £380.20bn £381.32bn +£1.12bn
Income tax 2031-32 £400.03bn £401.18bn +£1.15bn
Disability Living Allowance 2031-32 £9.82bn £9.55bn -£266.9m
Disability Living Allowance 2030-31 £9.59bn £9.33bn -£260.6m
Disability Living Allowance 2029-30 £9.36bn £9.10bn -£254.3m
Extended childcare entitlement 2026-27 796k 783k -12.7k
Extended childcare entitlement 2031-32 835k 823k -12.6k
State Pension 2027-28 £140.48bn £140.83bn +£348.8m
Disability Living Allowance 2028-29 £9.13bn £8.88bn -£248.3m
Disability Living Allowance 2027-28 £8.92bn £8.68bn -£242.4m
Tax-Free Childcare 2030-31 957k 945k -12.1k
Personal Independence Payment 2027-28 4,114k 4,164k +49.5k
Personal Independence Payment 2026-27 4,099k 4,149k +49.3k

108 more flags are in the report artifact.

Receipts by tax head

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Income tax +£985.7m +£1.03bn +£1.05bn +£1.08bn +£1.10bn +£1.12bn +£1.15bn
National Insurance (employee and self-employed) +£78.4m +£79.1m +£81.2m +£81.8m +£86.6m +£87.2m +£89.6m
National Insurance (employer) +£346.1m +£359.3m +£369.3m +£378.6m +£393.0m +£404.2m +£419.8m
Capital gains tax -£166.0m -£171.3m -£177.3m -£183.6m -£189.9m -£196.7m -£203.8m
Student loan repayments +£16.0m +£16.6m +£17.0m +£17.5m +£17.9m +£18.4m +£27.1m
VAT -£359.9m -£369.5m -£378.3m -£387.4m -£396.9m -£406.7m -£416.6m
Fuel duties -£368 +£16 +£573 +£21 -£247 +£332 -£225
TV licence fee -£4.7m -£5.9m -£5.2m -£5.1m -£5.3m -£5.4m -£5.1m
Council tax -£0.6m -£0.8m -£0.9m -£1.0m -£1.2m -£1.4m -£1.4m
High value council tax surcharge 0 0 0 -£3.4m -£3.5m -£3.6m -£3.6m
Northern Ireland domestic rates +£5.0m +£5.3m +£5.5m +£5.8m +£6.0m +£6.3m +£6.4m
Business rates +£2,761 -£3,725 -£2,028 -£4,178 -£464 -£483 +£2,924
Stamp duty land tax (own purchases, and corporate until the -£139.4m -£148.2m -£155.9m -£163.4m -£171.3m -£179.0m -£186.8m
Land transaction tax (Wales) -£0.4m -£0.5m -£0.5m -£0.5m -£0.6m -£0.6m -£0.7m
Land and buildings transaction tax (Scotland) +£0.6m +£0.6m +£0.6m +£0.6m +£0.7m +£0.7m +£0.7m

Spending by benefit and service

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
State Pension +£304.3m +£307.5m +£348.8m +£323.9m +£333.4m +£343.3m +£353.4m
Pension Credit -£0.7m +£0.4m -£3.1m -£2.1m -£3.8m -£5.1m -£11.2m
Winter Fuel Payment +£4.0m +£5.6m +£3.3m +£2.8m +£2.8m +£3.5m +£3.7m
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland) -£0.3m -£0.2m -£0.3m -£0.3m -£0.4m -£0.4m -£0.3m
Universal Credit -£40.5m -£14.4m +£0.5m +£42.0m +£60.4m -£2.5m -£7.7m
Housing Benefit +£3.6m +£4.3m +£3.7m +£4.1m +£4.3m +£4.3m +£6.2m
Council Tax Reduction -£16.9m -£16.4m -£18.2m -£19.5m -£20.0m -£16.8m -£16.2m
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related) -£6.0m -£6.1m -£6.3m -£6.4m -£6.5m -£6.7m -£6.9m
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based) +£3.7m +£3.8m +£3.9m +£4.0m +£4.1m +£4.2m +£4.3m
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based) +£1.3m 0 0 0 0 0 0
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based) -£0.6m -£0.7m -£0.7m -£0.7m -£0.7m -£0.7m -£0.7m
Income Support +£7.3m 0 0 0 0 0 0
Personal Independence Payment +£355.7m +£370.6m +£380.6m +£389.7m +£399.3m +£409.1m +£419.1m
Disability Living Allowance -£226.5m -£236.1m -£242.4m -£248.3m -£254.3m -£260.6m -£266.9m
Attendance Allowance +£76.1m +£79.3m +£81.4m +£83.4m +£85.4m +£87.5m +£89.6m
Carer's Allowance +£70.7m +£73.6m +£75.6m +£77.4m +£79.3m +£81.3m +£83.2m
Carer Support Payment (Scotland) -£9.7m -£10.1m -£10.4m -£10.7m -£10.9m -£11.2m -£11.5m
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland) 0 -£1.4m -£1.4m -£1.4m -£1.4m -£1.4m -£1.4m
Severe Disablement Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit -£4.1m -£4.2m -£4.3m -£4.4m -£4.5m -£4.6m -£4.7m
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme +£46.8m +£48.1m +£49.2m +£50.4m +£51.6m +£52.9m +£54.2m
Child Benefit -£35.0m -£35.7m -£38.2m -£39.0m -£40.1m -£40.9m -£41.4m
Scottish Child Payment +£6.8m +£6.9m +£7.1m +£7.2m +£7.3m +£7.5m +£8.2m
Healthy Start vouchers -£1.6m -£1.6m -£1.6m -£1.6m -£1.6m -£1.6m -£1.6m
Statutory Maternity Pay +£7.1m +£7.2m +£7.4m +£7.6m +£7.8m +£8.0m +£8.2m
Statutory Sick Pay -£27.4m -£28.1m -£28.8m -£29.5m -£30.2m -£31.0m -£31.7m
Sure Start Maternity Grant +£46,972 +£47,150 +£47,324 +£47,514 +£47,723 +£47,938 +£48,144
Bereavement Support Payment -£19.7m -£20.3m -£20.7m -£21.2m -£21.8m -£22.3m -£22.8m
Tax-Free Childcare +£1.5m -£4.1m -£3.8m -£4.0m -£4.3m -£11.3m -£11.3m
Extended childcare entitlement -£48.6m -£59.8m -£52.0m -£58.9m -£59.9m -£114.1m -£68.6m
Universal childcare entitlement -£15.6m -£11.7m -£12.0m -£11.5m -£11.8m -£12.2m -£12.5m
Targeted childcare entitlement -£6.0m -£6.2m -£6.4m -£6.6m -£6.7m -£6.2m +£5.7m
Parents' Learning Allowance +£19,448 +£19,521 +£19,592 +£19,670 +£19,757 +£19,844 +£19,928
Adult Dependants' Grant -£0.1m -£0.1m -£0.6m -£0.6m -£0.6m -£0.6m -£0.6m
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
NHS spending +£19.3m +£19.4m +£19.5m +£19.6m +£19.6m +£19.7m +£19.8m
State education spending suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Transport subsidy spending -£61 -£145 -£109 -£83 -£61 +£15 +£123

Caseloads

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
State Pension +10.5k +9.5k +12.7k +10.7k +10.7k +10.8k +10.8k
Pension Credit +3.7k +9.8k +4.5k +3.8k +4.4k +5.3k +4.1k
Winter Fuel Payment +18.3k +24.5k +15.5k +12.2k +12.0k +16.2k +17.7k
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland) +526 +654 +185 +120 +121 +121 +122
Universal Credit -11.6k -10.0k -7.8k -9.9k -9.8k -7.1k -9.8k
Housing Benefit +637 +630 +630 +648 +645 +646 +913
Council Tax Reduction -3.3k -1.4k -5.6k -8.0k -4.1k -2.0k +5.8k
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related) +685 +688 +690 +697 +700 +703 +706
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based) +402 +403 +405 +407 +408 +410 +412
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based) +336 0 0 0 0 0 0
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based) -78 -78 -79 -79 -79 -80 -80
Income Support +406 0 0 0 0 0 0
Personal Independence Payment +49.1k +49.3k +49.5k +49.7k +49.9k +50.1k +50.4k
Disability Living Allowance -39.0k -39.1k -39.3k -39.4k -39.6k -39.8k -39.9k
Attendance Allowance +12.4k +12.5k +12.5k +12.6k +12.6k +12.7k +12.8k
Carer's Allowance +16.3k +16.4k +16.4k +16.5k +16.6k +16.7k +16.7k
Carer Support Payment (Scotland) -2.2k -2.3k -2.3k -2.3k -2.3k -2.3k -2.3k
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland) 0 -2.3k -2.3k -2.3k -2.3k -2.3k -2.3k
Severe Disablement Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit +284 +286 +287 +288 +289 +290 +292
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme +5.4k +5.4k +5.4k +5.5k +5.5k +5.5k +5.5k
Child Benefit -26.0k -25.9k -26.5k -26.6k -26.7k -26.7k -26.5k
Scottish Child Payment +4.8k +4.7k +4.7k +4.7k +4.7k +4.7k +5.1k
Healthy Start vouchers -7.8k -7.8k -7.8k -7.9k -7.9k -7.9k -8.0k
Statutory Maternity Pay -1.1k -1.1k -1.1k -1.1k -1.1k -1.1k -1.1k
Statutory Sick Pay -5.3k -5.4k -5.4k -5.4k -5.4k -5.5k -5.5k
Sure Start Maternity Grant +94 +94 +95 +95 +95 +96 +96
Bereavement Support Payment -2.8k -2.8k -2.9k -2.9k -2.9k -2.9k -2.9k
Tax-Free Childcare +374 -4.5k -5.5k -5.8k -6.4k -12.1k -11.3k
Extended childcare entitlement -11.4k -12.7k -10.9k -11.7k -11.7k -32.6k -12.6k
Universal childcare entitlement -4.5k -3.3k -3.3k -3.1k -3.1k -3.2k -3.2k
Targeted childcare entitlement -1.2k -1.2k -1.3k -1.3k -1.3k -1.1k +1.0k
Parents' Learning Allowance +10 +10 +10 +10 +10 +10 +10
Adult Dependants' Grant -28 -28 -173 -174 -175 -175 -180
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed

Government balance, each component counted once

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Government receipts, each component once +£760.8m +£790.6m +£807.0m +£823.5m +£832.8m +£838.6m +£877.1m
Government spending +£448.9m † +£469.6m † +£529.7m † +£545.6m † +£575.8m † +£471.2m † +£537.5m †
Government balance, each receipt once +£311.9m † +£321.0m † +£277.2m † +£277.9m † +£256.9m † +£367.3m † +£339.7m †

Model totals

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
gov_tax +£760.8m +£790.6m +£807.0m +£823.5m +£832.8m +£838.6m +£877.1m
household_tax +£774.5m +£800.8m +£816.0m +£832.3m +£836.7m +£841.1m +£873.9m
pre_budget_change_household_tax +£758.6m +£784.3m +£799.0m +£818.2m +£822.2m +£826.2m +£850.5m
gov_spending +£448.9m † +£469.6m † +£529.7m † +£545.6m † +£575.8m † +£471.2m † +£537.5m †
household_benefits +£448.9m † +£469.6m † +£529.7m † +£545.6m † +£575.8m † +£471.2m † +£537.5m †
gov_balance +£311.9m † +£321.0m † +£277.2m † +£277.9m † +£256.9m † +£367.3m † +£339.7m †

Components the model counts twice

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
corporate_sdlt, counted again inside expected_sdlt +£286 -£378 -£192 -£430 -£52 -£48 +£301

Household income totals

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Household market income +£1.92bn +£2.00bn +£2.05bn +£2.10bn +£2.18bn +£2.24bn +£2.32bn
Household net income +£2.40bn † +£2.50bn † +£2.62bn † +£2.69bn † +£2.79bn † +£2.76bn † +£2.91bn †
Household net income (HBAI definition) suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed

Population

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
People -21.0k -21.0k -21.1k -21.2k -21.3k -21.4k -21.5k
Benefit units -25.9k -26.0k -26.1k -26.2k -26.3k -26.4k -26.5k
Households -10.1k -10.1k -10.2k -10.2k -10.3k -10.3k -10.4k

Poverty rates

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed

People in poverty

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed

Inequality

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Gini coefficient, equivalised HBAI income before housing costs suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed

Mean household net income in each side's own deciles

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Decile 9: mean household_net_income per household suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Decile 10: mean household_net_income per household suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed

Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance)

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp +£11.1m +£10.7m +£10.8m +£10.7m +£10.3m +£10.3m +£11.6m
Raise higher rate by 1pp +£24.1m +£25.9m +£27.3m +£28.5m +£29.9m +£31.3m +£32.7m
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year -£8.5m -£1.6m -£1.1m -£3.2m +£0.3m -£0.8m -£0.5m
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child -£17.7m -£15.1m -£15.3m -£17.1m -£16.3m -£16.1m -£15.7m
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20% -£23.5m -£20.0m -£25.8m -£24.1m -£41.5m -£45.0m -£61.2m
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10% +£12.8m +£13.1m +£13.5m +£11.4m +£11.7m +£11.1m +£13.7m
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp -£35.8m -£36.8m -£37.7m -£38.6m -£39.5m -£40.5m -£41.5m
Raise additional rate by 3pp +£18.4m +£18.7m +£18.9m +£19.7m +£18.5m +£17.6m +£18.0m
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10% -£4.5m -£4.2m -£7.4m -£11.8m -£14.4m -£14.8m -£15.5m
Raise the State Pension by 10% -£33.5m -£27.7m -£36.9m -£38.4m -£38.6m -£39.5m -£42.9m

Standard reforms: change in each reform's target

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp: change in income_tax +£9.5m +£9.6m +£9.4m +£8.9m +£9.1m +£9.2m +£9.3m
Raise higher rate by 1pp: change in income_tax +£24.2m +£26.0m +£27.5m +£28.5m +£29.9m +£31.3m +£32.5m
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year: change in income_tax -£8.3m -£1.7m -£1.1m -£3.3m -£92,745 -£1.3m -£0.7m
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child: change in child_benefit +£0.1m +£0.3m -£57,561 -£26,859 -£39,252 -£13,365 -£13,595
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%: change in universal_credit +£23.9m +£20.2m +£26.1m +£24.5m +£41.9m +£45.5m +£61.5m
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%: change in national_insurance +£11.0m +£10.7m +£10.9m +£11.0m +£11.9m +£11.6m +£11.8m
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp: change in vat -£35.8m -£36.8m -£37.7m -£38.6m -£39.5m -£40.5m -£41.5m
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax +£18.4m +£18.7m +£18.9m +£19.7m +£18.5m +£17.6m +£18.0m
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%: change in universal_credit +£4.8m +£4.5m +£7.8m +£12.2m +£14.8m +£15.3m +£16.0m
Raise the State Pension by 10%: change in state_pension +£30.4m +£30.7m +£34.9m +£32.4m +£33.3m +£34.3m +£35.3m

Household net income by decile

The datasets hold different households, so households are not matched; compare the mean income in each side's own deciles.

Checks failing on both base and head (4)
  • Each model total's components are exactly the partition's heads and declared double counts (closure): gov_spending: the partition puts 'healthy_start_vouchers' in this total, but the model does not add it; gov_spending: the partition puts 'scottish_child_payment' in this total, but the model does not add it; gov_spending: the partition puts 'statutory_paternity_pay' in this total, but the model does not add it
  • VAT is never negative (sign:vat): 2025-26: 67 units below zero, a weighted £-81,256,994 in total; 2026-27: 67 units below zero, a weighted £-83,441,790 in total; 2027-28: 67 units below zero, a weighted £-85,425,533 in total
  • The partition's heads and declared double counts add up to gov_spending (identity:gov_spending): 2025-26: 358 households differ, by a weighted £538,899,257 in total (households holding a figure from fewer than 10 records aren't checked this year); 2026-27: 360 households differ, by a weighted £560,022,873 in total (households holding a figure from fewer than 10 records aren't checked this year); 2027-28: 360 households differ, by a weighted £573,673,478 in total (households holding a figure from fewer than 10 records aren't checked this year)
  • The partition's heads and declared double counts add up to household_benefits (identity:household_benefits): 2025-26: 1,819 households differ, by a weighted £92,343,005 in total (households holding a figure from fewer than 10 records aren't checked this year); 2026-27: 1,791 households differ, by a weighted £94,271,561 in total (households holding a figure from fewer than 10 records aren't checked this year); 2027-28: 1,739 households differ, by a weighted £94,648,135 in total (households holding a figure from fewer than 10 records aren't checked this year)
Counted-once check

Counted-once check not run: not requested.

Provenance
Side Commit Runtime Environment hash Partition hash Time
base policyengi uk 2.122.2 (files 0cb87d75a516), core 3.32.13, py 3.13.16 x86_64 a9ab0df50691 e8ea8a019873 208.57s
head policyengi uk 2.122.2 (files 0cb87d75a516), core 3.32.13, py 3.13.16 x86_64 a9ab0df50691 e8ea8a019873 177.52s

Base dataset: enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5, sha256 f12124e6b476f8b525c1f51c3b3b65668e5f9a35b16cf18dc17b41914ea34add, the base's build.

Head dataset: enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5, sha256 f778aff9348cc72e3900f912b13a217450ec27c53479397f3d0e8eb785ae641f, this pull request's build.

Receipts by tax head: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Income tax £298.18bn £317.66bn £333.61bn £348.00bn £363.94bn £381.32bn £401.18bn
National Insurance (employee and self-employed) £51.16bn £53.37bn £55.12bn £56.70bn £58.61bn £60.42bn £62.75bn
National Insurance (employer) £151.19bn £157.63bn £162.52bn £167.04bn £173.76bn £179.19bn £186.25bn
Employer NI change borne by capital £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Employer NI change borne by consumers £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Capital gains tax £25.01bn £25.86bn £26.81bn £27.77bn £28.73bn £29.79bn £30.87bn
Student loan repayments £7.72bn £8.01bn £8.23bn £8.44bn £8.66bn £8.91bn £8.30bn
VAT £323.80bn £332.51bn £340.41bn £348.61bn £357.15bn £365.93bn £374.85bn
Change in VAT from its baseline £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
VAT on private school fees £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Fuel duties £24.04bn £24.14bn £26.10bn £26.16bn £25.89bn £25.24bn £25.82bn
Alcohol duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Tobacco duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Vehicle excise duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
TV licence fee £4.50bn £4.66bn £4.68bn £4.70bn £4.72bn £4.74bn £4.77bn
Council tax £48.70bn £51.53bn £54.80bn £58.33bn £61.85bn £65.53bn £65.82bn
High value council tax surcharge £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.69bn £0.71bn £0.73bn £0.74bn
Northern Ireland domestic rates £1.13bn £1.18bn £1.24bn £1.30bn £1.36bn £1.43bn £1.43bn
Business rates £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn
Stamp duty land tax (own purchases, and corporate until the £19.58bn £20.46bn £21.43bn £22.39bn £23.40bn £24.51bn £25.70bn
Land transaction tax (Wales) £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn
Land and buildings transaction tax (Scotland) £0.06bn £0.06bn £0.06bn £0.06bn £0.07bn £0.07bn £0.07bn
Unspecified tax change borne by capital £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Unspecified tax change borne by consumers £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Wealth tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Wealth tax excluding the main residence £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Land value tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Carbon tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Spending by benefit and service: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
State Pension £133.46bn £138.54bn £140.83bn £143.17bn £147.39bn £151.76bn £156.22bn
Pension Credit £6.53bn £7.14bn £7.02bn £7.07bn £7.18bn £7.29bn £7.30bn
Winter Fuel Payment £1.69bn £1.66bn £1.62bn £1.59bn £1.58bn £1.58bn £1.57bn
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland) £0.09bn £0.09bn £0.09bn £0.10bn £0.10bn £0.10bn £0.10bn
Universal Credit £78.86bn £83.08bn £84.90bn £86.45bn £87.37bn £84.58bn £85.08bn
Housing Benefit £8.33bn £8.66bn £8.86bn £9.06bn £9.34bn £9.58bn £9.54bn
Council Tax Reduction £2.17bn £2.23bn £2.30bn £2.36bn £2.42bn £2.49bn £2.46bn
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related) £3.19bn £3.28bn £3.35bn £3.43bn £3.51bn £3.60bn £3.68bn
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based) £4.75bn £4.87bn £4.99bn £5.11bn £5.24bn £5.36bn £5.50bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based) £0.05bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based) £0.29bn £0.30bn £0.30bn £0.31bn £0.32bn £0.33bn £0.33bn
Income Support £0.17bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Working Tax Credit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Child Tax Credit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Incapacity Benefit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Personal Independence Payment £30.42bn £31.70bn £32.55bn £33.34bn £34.15bn £34.99bn £35.85bn
Disability Living Allowance £8.11bn £8.45bn £8.68bn £8.88bn £9.10bn £9.33bn £9.55bn
Attendance Allowance £7.78bn £8.11bn £8.33bn £8.53bn £8.74bn £8.95bn £9.17bn
Carer's Allowance £3.98bn £4.15bn £4.26bn £4.36bn £4.47bn £4.58bn £4.69bn
Carer Support Payment (Scotland) £0.31bn £0.32bn £0.33bn £0.34bn £0.34bn £0.35bn £0.36bn
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland) £0.00bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn
Severe Disablement Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit £0.62bn £0.64bn £0.65bn £0.67bn £0.69bn £0.70bn £0.72bn
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme £0.59bn £0.61bn £0.62bn £0.64bn £0.65bn £0.67bn £0.69bn
Child Benefit £16.35bn £16.99bn £17.41bn £17.81bn £18.23bn £18.67bn £19.07bn
Scottish Child Payment £0.48bn £0.50bn £0.51bn £0.53bn £0.53bn £0.55bn £0.56bn
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual) £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Healthy Start vouchers £0.06bn £0.06bn £0.06bn £0.06bn £0.06bn £0.06bn £0.06bn
Maternity Allowance £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Statutory Maternity Pay £3.84bn £3.95bn £4.04bn £4.14bn £4.24bn £4.34bn £4.45bn
Statutory Paternity Pay £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Statutory Sick Pay £0.97bn £0.99bn £1.02bn £1.04bn £1.07bn £1.09bn £1.12bn
Sure Start Maternity Grant £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn
Bereavement Support Payment £1.13bn £1.16bn £1.19bn £1.22bn £1.25bn £1.28bn £1.31bn
Tax-Free Childcare £0.45bn £0.44bn £0.44bn £0.45bn £0.46bn £0.47bn £0.47bn
Extended childcare entitlement £3.76bn £4.17bn £4.29bn £4.41bn £4.52bn £4.69bn £4.82bn
Universal childcare entitlement £1.50bn £1.59bn £1.64bn £1.68bn £1.72bn £1.74bn £1.79bn
Targeted childcare entitlement £0.37bn £0.38bn £0.39bn £0.40bn £0.41bn £0.41bn £0.42bn
Care to Learn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Childcare Grant £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Parents' Learning Allowance £0.19bn £0.19bn £0.19bn £0.19bn £0.19bn £0.20bn £0.20bn
Adult Dependants' Grant £0.06bn £0.06bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn
Travel Grant £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
NHS spending £208.42bn £209.21bn £209.98bn £210.82bn £211.75bn £212.70bn £213.62bn
State education spending suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Transport subsidy spending £25.15bn £25.25bn £25.34bn £25.44bn £25.55bn £25.67bn £30.94bn
Cost-of-living support payment £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Energy Bills Rebate £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Basic income £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Disability basic income £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Other public spending budget change £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Caseloads: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
State Pension 11,748k 11,642k 11,396k 11,306k 11,356k 11,407k 11,456k
Pension Credit 1,368k 1,391k 1,345k 1,328k 1,328k 1,326k 1,306k
Winter Fuel Payment 7,150k 7,028k 6,805k 6,671k 6,648k 6,617k 6,606k
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland) 710k 703k 690k 684k 687k 690k 693k
Universal Credit 6,373k 6,403k 6,428k 6,430k 6,405k 6,395k 6,371k
Housing Benefit 1,210k 1,207k 1,202k 1,198k 1,204k 1,203k 1,200k
Council Tax Reduction 3,611k 3,638k 3,680k 3,704k 3,726k 3,747k 3,721k
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related) 310k 311k 312k 313k 314k 316k 317k
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based) 668k 670k 673k 676k 679k 682k 685k
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based) 9k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based) 60k 60k 60k 61k 61k 61k 62k
Income Support 26k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Working Tax Credit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Child Tax Credit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Incapacity Benefit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Personal Independence Payment 4,133k 4,149k 4,164k 4,181k 4,199k 4,218k 4,236k
Disability Living Allowance 1,331k 1,336k 1,341k 1,346k 1,352k 1,358k 1,364k
Attendance Allowance 1,538k 1,544k 1,550k 1,556k 1,563k 1,570k 1,576k
Carer's Allowance 919k 922k 926k 929k 933k 938k 942k
Carer Support Payment (Scotland) 71k 71k 71k 71k 72k 72k 72k
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland) 0k 71k 71k 71k 72k 72k 72k
Severe Disablement Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit 158k 159k 159k 160k 161k 161k 162k
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme 66k 67k 67k 67k 67k 68k 68k
Child Benefit 7,955k 7,968k 7,982k 8,008k 8,035k 8,067k 8,080k
Scottish Child Payment 340k 341k 343k 344k 342k 344k 342k
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual) 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Healthy Start vouchers 231k 231k 232k 233k 234k 235k 236k
Maternity Allowance 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Statutory Maternity Pay 304k 305k 306k 308k 309k 310k 312k
Statutory Paternity Pay 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Statutory Sick Pay 151k 152k 153k 153k 154k 154k 155k
Sure Start Maternity Grant 22k 22k 23k 23k 23k 23k 23k
Bereavement Support Payment 183k 183k 184k 185k 186k 187k 187k
Tax-Free Childcare 966k 951k 952k 957k 934k 945k 934k
Extended childcare entitlement 792k 783k 790k 793k 795k 805k 823k
Universal childcare entitlement 438k 448k 451k 452k 454k 452k 455k
Targeted childcare entitlement 77k 77k 77k 77k 78k 76k 75k
Care to Learn 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Childcare Grant 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Parents' Learning Allowance 94k 95k 95k 96k 96k 96k 97k
Adult Dependants' Grant 17k 17k 14k 15k 15k 15k 14k
Travel Grant 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Cost-of-living support payment 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Energy Bills Rebate 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Basic income 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Disability basic income 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Government balance, each component counted once: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Government receipts, each component once £986.81bn £1,028.81bn £1,066.74bn £1,101.93bn £1,140.59bn £1,179.56bn £1,220.31bn
Government spending £554.15bn † £568.83bn † £576.30bn † £583.70bn † £592.68bn † £598.21bn † £611.75bn †
Government balance, each receipt once £432.66bn † £459.98bn † £490.44bn † £518.24bn † £547.92bn † £581.34bn † £608.56bn †
Benefits in household_benefits but not in gov_spending £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Model totals: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
gov_tax £989.94bn £1,031.94bn £1,069.87bn £1,105.06bn £1,143.72bn £1,182.69bn £1,223.44bn
household_tax £514.96bn £541.80bn £566.94bn £589.41bn £612.82bn £637.56bn £662.34bn
pre_budget_change_household_tax £507.24bn £533.79bn £558.71bn £580.28bn £603.45bn £627.93bn £653.30bn
gov_spending £554.15bn † £568.83bn † £576.30bn † £583.70bn † £592.68bn † £598.21bn † £611.75bn †
household_benefits £554.15bn † £568.83bn † £576.30bn † £583.70bn † £592.68bn † £598.21bn † £611.75bn †
gov_balance £435.79bn † £463.11bn † £493.57bn † £521.37bn † £551.05bn † £584.47bn † £611.69bn †
Components the model counts twice: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
corporate_sdlt, counted again inside expected_sdlt £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn
Household income totals: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Household market income £1,661.30bn £1,723.54bn £1,776.31bn £1,826.99bn £1,892.48bn £1,951.02bn £2,023.01bn
Household net income £1,660.04bn † £1,708.58bn † £1,742.51bn † £1,777.03bn † £1,812.71bn † £1,850.68bn † £1,908.90bn †
Household net income (HBAI definition) suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Population: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
People 70,732k 71,001k 71,264k 71,549k 71,864k 72,187k 72,497k
Benefit units 38,921k 39,068k 39,213k 39,370k 39,543k 39,721k 39,892k
Households 32,058k 32,179k 32,298k 32,428k 32,570k 32,717k 32,858k
Poverty rates: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
People in poverty: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Inequality: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Gini coefficient, equivalised HBAI income before housing costs suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Mean household net income in each side's own deciles: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Decile 9: mean household_net_income per household suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Decile 10: mean household_net_income per household suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance): head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp £6.04bn £6.31bn £6.52bn £6.71bn £6.91bn £7.14bn £7.40bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp £3.76bn £4.06bn £4.30bn £4.52bn £4.78bn £5.07bn £5.29bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year £-3.59bn £-3.69bn £-3.80bn £-3.86bn £-3.91bn £-3.98bn £-1.67bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child £-2.05bn £-1.82bn £-1.69bn £-1.59bn £-1.48bn £-1.37bn £-1.26bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20% £-16.79bn £-17.43bn £-17.67bn £-17.86bn £-17.92bn £-18.13bn £-18.16bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10% £10.63bn £11.04bn £11.35bn £11.60bn £11.89bn £12.19bn £12.63bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp £31.93bn £32.79bn £33.57bn £34.38bn £35.22bn £36.08bn £36.96bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp £3.28bn £3.53bn £3.74bn £3.94bn £4.19bn £4.44bn £4.79bn
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10% £-2.97bn £-3.12bn £-3.17bn £-3.22bn £-3.24bn £-3.28bn £-3.33bn
Raise the State Pension by 10% £-9.77bn £-10.02bn £-10.10bn £-10.20bn £-10.43bn £-10.69bn £-10.97bn
Standard reforms: change in each reform's target: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp: change in income_tax £6.15bn £6.43bn £6.64bn £6.84bn £7.05bn £7.28bn £7.54bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp: change in income_tax £3.77bn £4.07bn £4.30bn £4.53bn £4.79bn £5.08bn £5.30bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year: change in income_tax £-3.69bn £-3.81bn £-3.91bn £-3.98bn £-4.03bn £-4.11bn £-1.73bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child: change in child_benefit £2.50bn £2.29bn £2.17bn £2.05bn £1.94bn £1.82bn £1.70bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%: change in universal_credit £16.83bn £17.47bn £17.71bn £17.91bn £17.96bn £18.17bn £18.20bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%: change in national_insurance £10.82bn £11.23bn £11.54bn £11.82bn £12.11bn £12.42bn £12.87bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp: change in vat £31.93bn £32.79bn £33.57bn £34.38bn £35.22bn £36.08bn £36.96bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax £3.28bn £3.53bn £3.74bn £3.94bn £4.19bn £4.44bn £4.79bn
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%: change in universal_credit £2.97bn £3.12bn £3.17bn £3.22bn £3.25bn £3.29bn £3.33bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%: change in state_pension £13.35bn £13.85bn £14.08bn £14.32bn £14.74bn £15.18bn £15.62bn

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