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Document building the FRS from a UK Data Service download - #635

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Say which FRS release main supports, that the PyPI package is stale,
how to build the base FRS from the UKDS tab files, how to run the
result in policyengine.py, and which FRS codes changed since 2022-23.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 noreply@anthropic.com

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

Say which FRS release main supports, that the PyPI package is stale,
how to build the base FRS from the UKDS tab files, how to run the
result in policyengine.py, and which FRS codes changed since 2022-23.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@github-actions

github-actions Bot commented Oct 23, 2026 •

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Calibration fit against the base build: pass

Targets within 10% (those both builds have) Base Head Change
National (647) 64.6% 64.9% +0.3pp
Local (11,228) 75.0% 75.0% +0.0pp

A drop of more than 2.0% fails.

Notes

  • 11 national targets are in a better band on the head.

National targets in a worse error band on the head (9)

Target Base Head
dwp/benefit_capped_households 25-50% 50-100%
dwp/uc_payment_dist/COUPLE_NO_CHILDREN_annual_payment_7_200_to_8_400 within 10% 10-25%
dwp/uc_payment_dist/COUPLE_WITH_CHILDREN_annual_payment_27_600_to_28_800 25-50% 50-100%
dwp/uc_payment_dist/COUPLE_WITH_CHILDREN_annual_payment_7_200_to_8_400 within 10% 10-25%
hmrc/employment_income_income_band_12_570_to_15_000 within 10% 10-25%
hmrc/property_income_count_income_band_15_000_to_20_000 25-50% 50-100%
hmrc/self_employment_income_count_income_band_300_000_to_500_000 within 10% 10-25%
ons/female_0_4 within 10% 10-25%
ons/south_west_age_20_29 within 10% 10-25%

Flags are for review: builds of the same code move 2 to 12 national targets to a worse band (#598). Bands are of |estimate / target - 1|; no target's estimate or error is published.

Workflow run

Income distribution and single ages against the base build: pass

HBAI FYE 2025 (DWP), period 2024: equivalised income in £ a week, rates and Gini in per cent. A value outside HBAI's 95% interval is marked (outside).

Measure Base Head HBAI 95% interval
median_bhc 678.78 (outside) 678.42 (outside) 719.48 703.57 to 735.58
median_ahc 584.51 (outside) 584.18 (outside) 623.14 605.21 to 637.07
mean_bhc 802.21 (outside) 800.03 (outside) 854.98 836.37 to 870.35
mean_ahc 693.46 (outside) 691.42 (outside) 749.82 732.33 to 764.50
gini_bhc 33.21 33.14 32.74 31.89 to 33.98
gini_ahc 38.47 (outside) 38.44 (outside) 36.78 35.90 to 38.29
relative_low_income_bhc_all 17.95 (outside) 18.21 (outside) 15.91 14.45 to 17.64
relative_low_income_bhc_children 23.21 23.88 20.52 17.36 to 23.96
relative_low_income_bhc_working_age 17.23 (outside) 17.48 (outside) 14.28 12.91 to 16.02
relative_low_income_bhc_pensioners 14.01 13.78 15.90 13.69 to 17.99
relative_low_income_ahc_all 23.12 (outside) 23.46 (outside) 19.64 17.99 to 21.27
relative_low_income_ahc_children 32.57 (outside) 33.50 (outside) 27.41 23.49 to 30.64
relative_low_income_ahc_working_age 22.86 (outside) 23.16 (outside) 18.58 17.01 to 20.34
relative_low_income_ahc_pensioners 12.36 12.05 13.87 11.62 to 15.90
Single ages against the ONS projection Base Head
Mean error, ages 0 to 79 11.0% 11.0%
Largest error, ages 0 to 79 44.0% 43.7%
Largest error, ages 15 to 19 37.8% 36.8%

Flags

None.

These measures report and flag but do not fail yet: their same-code spread is unmeasured (#598).

Aggregate impact of the data change: pass

Base dataset enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5 (the base's build, sha256 79c188d351a6) against head dataset enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5 (this pull request's build, sha256 7e621a36ed4f), both measured with policyengine-uk 2.122.2, fiscal years 2025-26 to 2031-32. Each year is a full microsimulation run on each side.

Checks: 0 broken by this change, 4 failing on both sides, 0 fixed. Moves flagged for review: 180 (thresholds in report_spec.yaml; a flag does not fail the job).

Workflow run and full report

Notes

  • In the years a figure from fewer than 10 records is suppressed (spending.dfe_education_spending, spending.disabled_students_allowance, spending.sda), every total containing it, and the decile incomes, are rebuilt from their other components, so no published total includes it. Those totals are marked †. A change is withheld where the two sides leave out different figures and can't be lined up.

Moves flagged for review

Measure Year Base Head Change
Extended childcare entitlement 2030-31 804k 837k +32.5k
Disability Living Allowance 2031-32 1,364k 1,403k +39.7k
Disability Living Allowance 2030-31 1,358k 1,397k +39.5k
Disability Living Allowance 2028-29 1,346k 1,385k +39.1k
Disability Living Allowance 2027-28 1,341k 1,380k +39.0k
Disability Living Allowance 2029-30 1,352k 1,391k +39.3k
Disability Living Allowance 2025-26 1,331k 1,369k +38.7k
Disability Living Allowance 2026-27 1,336k 1,375k +38.8k
Personal Independence Payment 2031-32 £35.87bn £35.43bn -£440.8m
Personal Independence Payment 2030-31 £35.02bn £34.59bn -£430.3m
Personal Independence Payment 2029-30 £34.18bn £33.76bn -£419.9m
Personal Independence Payment 2028-29 £33.36bn £32.95bn -£409.9m
Personal Independence Payment 2027-28 £32.58bn £32.18bn -£400.3m
Personal Independence Payment 2026-27 £31.73bn £31.34bn -£389.8m
Income tax 2025-26 £298.29bn £297.17bn -£1.12bn
Personal Independence Payment 2025-26 £30.45bn £30.07bn -£374.1m
Income tax 2026-27 £317.77bn £316.60bn -£1.17bn
Income tax 2027-28 £333.72bn £332.52bn -£1.20bn
Income tax 2028-29 £348.12bn £346.87bn -£1.24bn
Income tax 2029-30 £364.07bn £362.80bn -£1.27bn
Income tax 2030-31 £381.45bn £380.16bn -£1.29bn
Carer's Allowance 2031-32 941k 924k -16.9k
Carer's Allowance 2030-31 937k 920k -16.8k
Carer's Allowance 2029-30 933k 916k -16.7k
Income tax 2031-32 £401.32bn £399.98bn -£1.34bn
Carer's Allowance 2028-29 929k 912k -16.6k
Carer's Allowance 2027-28 925k 909k -16.6k
Carer's Allowance 2026-27 922k 905k -16.5k
Carer's Allowance 2025-26 918k 902k -16.4k
National Insurance (employer) 2025-26 £151.24bn £150.81bn -£433.6m
National Insurance (employer) 2026-27 £157.69bn £157.24bn -£450.4m
National Insurance (employer) 2027-28 £162.58bn £162.11bn -£463.3m
National Insurance (employer) 2028-29 £167.10bn £166.62bn -£475.1m
National Insurance (employer) 2029-30 £173.82bn £173.33bn -£492.1m
National Insurance (employer) 2030-31 £179.26bn £178.75bn -£506.4m
National Insurance (employer) 2031-32 £186.31bn £185.79bn -£526.0m
Stamp duty land tax (own purchases, and corporate until the 2031-32 £25.71bn £25.98bn +£269.5m
Disability Living Allowance 2031-32 £9.56bn £9.82bn +£260.3m
Stamp duty land tax (own purchases, and corporate until the 2030-31 £24.52bn £24.77bn +£257.6m
State Pension 2025-26 £133.47bn £133.13bn -£341.0m

140 more flags are in the report artifact.

Receipts by tax head

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Income tax -£1.12bn -£1.17bn -£1.20bn -£1.24bn -£1.27bn -£1.29bn -£1.34bn
National Insurance (employee and self-employed) -£107.6m -£109.7m -£113.8m -£115.5m -£121.4m -£123.2m -£127.1m
National Insurance (employer) -£433.6m -£450.4m -£463.3m -£475.1m -£492.1m -£506.4m -£526.0m
Capital gains tax -£65.5m -£67.9m -£70.5m -£73.0m -£75.5m -£78.3m -£81.1m
Student loan repayments -£15.9m -£16.5m -£16.9m -£17.4m -£17.8m -£18.3m -£23.6m
VAT +£183.4m +£188.3m +£192.8m +£197.4m +£202.2m +£207.2m +£212.3m
Fuel duties +£184 +£751 -£784 -£241 -£229 -£14 -£1,113
TV licence fee +£2.6m +£3.7m +£3.0m +£2.9m +£3.0m +£3.2m +£2.8m
Council tax -£26.6m -£28.3m -£30.2m -£32.2m -£34.3m -£36.5m -£36.7m
High value council tax surcharge 0 0 0 +£3.4m +£3.5m +£3.6m +£3.7m
Northern Ireland domestic rates -£2.1m -£2.2m -£2.3m -£2.4m -£2.5m -£2.6m -£2.6m
Business rates -£430 -£206 -£1,874 -£4,176 +£6,041 -£6,478 -£2,697
Stamp duty land tax (own purchases, and corporate until the +£201.6m +£213.1m +£224.0m +£234.7m +£246.1m +£257.6m +£269.5m
Land transaction tax (Wales) +£0.3m +£0.3m +£0.3m +£0.4m +£0.4m +£0.4m +£0.5m
Land and buildings transaction tax (Scotland) +£0.3m +£0.3m +£0.3m +£0.3m +£0.3m +£0.3m +£0.4m

Spending by benefit and service

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
State Pension -£341.0m -£344.7m -£350.7m -£352.4m -£362.8m -£373.5m -£384.5m
Pension Credit -£5.4m -£7.2m -£3.4m -£4.6m -£3.2m -£2.2m +£3.9m
Winter Fuel Payment -£4.1m -£5.7m -£3.4m -£2.8m -£2.8m -£3.5m -£3.7m
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland) +£0.2m +£88,269 +£0.2m +£0.2m +£0.3m +£0.3m +£0.3m
Universal Credit +£48.8m +£18.1m +£2.0m -£40.6m -£59.6m +£4.2m +£10.1m
Housing Benefit -£6.6m -£7.7m -£5.6m -£6.0m -£6.2m -£6.2m -£7.1m
Council Tax Reduction +£16.4m +£15.7m +£17.6m +£18.9m +£19.3m +£16.2m +£15.6m
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related) +£5.7m +£5.9m +£6.0m +£6.2m +£6.3m +£6.5m +£6.7m
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based) -£11.5m -£11.8m -£12.1m -£12.4m -£12.7m -£13.0m -£13.3m
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based) -£2.2m 0 0 0 0 0 0
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based) +£1.2m +£1.3m +£1.3m +£1.3m +£1.4m +£1.4m +£1.4m
Income Support -£6.6m 0 0 0 0 0 0
Personal Independence Payment -£374.1m -£389.8m -£400.3m -£409.9m -£419.9m -£430.3m -£440.8m
Disability Living Allowance +£220.9m +£230.3m +£236.4m +£242.1m +£248.0m +£254.1m +£260.3m
Attendance Allowance -£77.9m -£81.2m -£83.4m -£85.4m -£87.4m -£89.6m -£91.8m
Carer's Allowance -£71.2m -£74.2m -£76.2m -£78.0m -£79.9m -£81.9m -£83.9m
Carer Support Payment (Scotland) +£9.6m +£10.0m +£10.3m +£10.5m +£10.8m +£11.1m +£11.3m
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland) 0 +£1.4m +£1.4m +£1.4m +£1.4m +£1.4m +£1.4m
Severe Disablement Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit +£3.5m +£3.6m +£3.7m +£3.8m +£3.9m +£4.0m +£4.1m
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme -£46.8m -£48.1m -£49.3m -£50.4m -£51.7m -£52.9m -£54.2m
Child Benefit +£31.6m +£32.3m +£35.0m +£35.7m +£36.5m +£37.2m +£37.8m
Scottish Child Payment -£4.5m -£4.5m -£4.7m -£4.8m -£4.9m -£5.0m -£5.6m
Healthy Start vouchers +£1.4m +£1.4m +£1.4m +£1.4m +£1.5m +£1.5m +£1.5m
Statutory Maternity Pay -£6.0m -£6.2m -£6.3m -£6.5m -£6.6m -£6.8m -£7.0m
Statutory Sick Pay +£23.0m +£23.6m +£24.2m +£24.7m +£25.3m +£26.0m +£26.6m
Sure Start Maternity Grant -£0.1m -£0.1m -£0.1m -£0.1m -£0.1m -£0.1m -£0.1m
Bereavement Support Payment +£27.8m +£28.5m +£29.2m +£29.9m +£30.6m +£31.4m +£32.1m
Tax-Free Childcare -£1.6m +£4.0m +£3.8m +£3.9m +£4.1m +£11.1m +£11.1m
Extended childcare entitlement +£48.6m +£60.1m +£52.1m +£59.5m +£60.4m +£114.3m +£68.5m
Universal childcare entitlement +£14.1m +£10.0m +£10.2m +£9.3m +£9.6m +£9.9m +£10.2m
Targeted childcare entitlement +£5.9m +£6.2m +£6.3m +£6.5m +£6.6m +£6.2m -£5.7m
Parents' Learning Allowance -£0.2m -£0.2m -£0.2m -£0.2m -£0.2m -£0.2m -£0.2m
Adult Dependants' Grant -£0.3m -£0.3m +£70,386 +£70,668 +£70,979 +£71,298 +£0.1m
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
NHS spending -£83.8m -£84.2m -£84.5m -£84.8m -£85.2m -£85.6m -£85.9m
State education spending suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Transport subsidy spending -£142 -£57 +£7 +£37 +£19 +£114 +£680

Caseloads

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
State Pension -13.9k -12.7k -13.1k -13.0k -13.1k -13.1k -13.2k
Pension Credit -4.1k -10.9k -4.7k -3.9k -4.6k -5.5k -4.1k
Winter Fuel Payment -18.8k -25.0k -16.1k -12.3k -12.1k -16.1k -17.6k
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland) -1.1k -1.2k -624 -490 -492 -494 -496
Universal Credit +11.7k +10.1k +7.8k +9.8k +9.6k +6.8k +9.4k
Housing Benefit -1.2k -1.2k -1.0k -1.0k -1.0k -1.0k -1.2k
Council Tax Reduction +2.7k +754 +4.8k +7.2k +3.3k +1.2k -6.6k
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related) -760 -763 -766 -772 -775 -779 -782
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based) -1.4k -1.4k -1.4k -1.4k -1.4k -1.4k -1.4k
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based) -498 0 0 0 0 0 0
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based) +182 +183 +183 +184 +185 +186 +187
Income Support -265 0 0 0 0 0 0
Personal Independence Payment -51.1k -51.3k -51.5k -51.7k -51.9k -52.2k -52.4k
Disability Living Allowance +38.7k +38.8k +39.0k +39.1k +39.3k +39.5k +39.7k
Attendance Allowance -12.7k -12.8k -12.8k -12.9k -12.9k -13.0k -13.0k
Carer's Allowance -16.4k -16.5k -16.6k -16.6k -16.7k -16.8k -16.9k
Carer Support Payment (Scotland) +2.2k +2.2k +2.2k +2.2k +2.3k +2.3k +2.3k
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland) 0 +2.2k +2.2k +2.2k +2.3k +2.3k +2.3k
Severe Disablement Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit -403 -404 -406 -408 -409 -411 -413
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme -5.5k -5.5k -5.5k -5.6k -5.6k -5.6k -5.6k
Child Benefit +24.4k +24.3k +25.0k +25.0k +25.1k +25.1k +25.1k
Scottish Child Payment -3.2k -3.1k -3.1k -3.1k -3.1k -3.2k -3.4k
Healthy Start vouchers +7.2k +7.2k +7.2k +7.3k +7.3k +7.3k +7.4k
Statutory Maternity Pay +1.5k +1.5k +1.5k +1.5k +1.5k +1.5k +1.5k
Statutory Sick Pay +4.4k +4.4k +4.5k +4.5k +4.5k +4.5k +4.5k
Sure Start Maternity Grant -260 -261 -262 -263 -264 -265 -266
Bereavement Support Payment +3.3k +3.3k +3.4k +3.4k +3.4k +3.4k +3.4k
Tax-Free Childcare -1.4k +3.4k +4.3k +4.6k +5.2k +11.0k +10.2k
Extended childcare entitlement +11.2k +12.6k +10.8k +11.8k +11.7k +32.5k +12.4k
Universal childcare entitlement +4.1k +2.8k +2.8k +2.5k +2.5k +2.6k +2.6k
Targeted childcare entitlement +1.2k +1.2k +1.2k +1.2k +1.2k +1.1k -1.0k
Parents' Learning Allowance -82 -83 -83 -83 -84 -84 -84
Adult Dependants' Grant -98 -98 +20 +20 +20 +20 +36
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed

Government balance, each component counted once

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Government receipts, each component once -£1.39bn -£1.44bn -£1.48bn -£1.52bn -£1.55bn -£1.59bn -£1.64bn
Government spending -£585.1m † -£613.5m † -£638.7m † -£683.2m † -£717.0m † -£614.1m † -£680.5m †
Government balance, each receipt once -£801.4m † -£829.2m † -£841.0m † -£837.4m † -£837.1m † -£971.0m † -£963.8m †

Model totals

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
gov_tax -£1.39bn -£1.44bn -£1.48bn -£1.52bn -£1.55bn -£1.59bn -£1.64bn
household_tax -£1.14bn -£1.18bn -£1.21bn -£1.24bn -£1.26bn -£1.29bn -£1.33bn
pre_budget_change_household_tax -£1.12bn -£1.16bn -£1.19bn -£1.23bn -£1.25bn -£1.27bn -£1.31bn
gov_spending -£585.1m † -£613.5m † -£638.7m † -£683.2m † -£717.0m † -£614.1m † -£680.5m †
household_benefits -£585.1m † -£613.5m † -£638.7m † -£683.2m † -£717.0m † -£614.1m † -£680.5m †
gov_balance -£801.4m † -£829.2m † -£841.0m † -£837.4m † -£837.1m † -£971.0m † -£963.8m †

Components the model counts twice

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
corporate_sdlt, counted again inside expected_sdlt -£50 -£16 -£181 -£410 +£616 -£628 -£237

Household income totals

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Household market income -£3.68bn -£3.82bn -£3.94bn -£4.04bn -£4.18bn -£4.31bn -£4.47bn
Household net income -£3.93bn † -£4.09bn † -£4.22bn † -£4.36bn † -£4.50bn † -£4.53bn † -£4.74bn †
Household net income (HBAI definition) suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed

Population

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
People -3.2k -3.3k -3.3k -3.3k -3.3k -3.3k -3.3k
Benefit units +16.2k +16.3k +16.4k +16.4k +16.5k +16.6k +16.6k
Households -1.5k -1.5k -1.5k -1.5k -1.5k -1.5k -1.5k

Poverty rates

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed

People in poverty

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed

Inequality

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Gini coefficient, equivalised HBAI income before housing costs suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed

Mean household net income in each side's own deciles

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Decile 9: mean household_net_income per household suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Decile 10: mean household_net_income per household suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed

Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance)

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp -£13.6m -£13.3m -£13.3m -£13.5m -£13.2m -£13.3m -£14.7m
Raise higher rate by 1pp -£25.0m -£26.8m -£28.2m -£29.4m -£30.9m -£32.3m -£33.7m
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year +£10.5m +£3.7m +£3.0m +£5.5m +£2.0m +£3.0m +£1.4m
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child +£18.6m +£16.2m +£16.4m +£18.2m +£17.3m +£16.9m +£16.4m
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20% +£27.9m +£26.3m +£32.9m +£30.2m +£49.7m +£53.1m +£73.4m
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10% -£18.6m -£18.9m -£19.7m -£18.0m -£18.5m -£18.0m -£20.8m
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp +£18.3m +£18.8m +£19.2m +£19.7m +£20.2m +£20.7m +£21.2m
Raise additional rate by 3pp -£24.4m -£25.0m -£25.5m -£26.5m -£25.5m -£24.9m -£25.7m
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10% +£4.8m +£4.8m +£8.2m +£12.6m +£15.2m +£15.6m +£16.3m
Raise the State Pension by 10% +£36.6m +£30.4m +£37.2m +£41.3m +£42.1m +£43.0m +£46.5m

Standard reforms: change in each reform's target

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp: change in income_tax -£12.1m -£12.4m -£12.1m -£11.8m -£12.2m -£12.4m -£12.6m
Raise higher rate by 1pp: change in income_tax -£25.1m -£27.0m -£28.5m -£29.5m -£31.0m -£32.4m -£33.6m
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year: change in income_tax +£10.3m +£3.9m +£3.2m +£5.7m +£2.5m +£3.7m +£1.6m
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child: change in child_benefit -£0.7m -£0.7m -£0.3m -£0.3m -£0.3m -£0.3m -£0.3m
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%: change in universal_credit -£28.1m -£26.3m -£32.9m -£30.3m -£49.9m -£53.3m -£73.5m
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%: change in national_insurance -£16.9m -£16.9m -£17.5m -£17.7m -£18.9m -£18.8m -£19.2m
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp: change in vat +£18.3m +£18.8m +£19.3m +£19.7m +£20.2m +£20.7m +£21.2m
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax -£24.4m -£25.0m -£25.5m -£26.5m -£25.5m -£24.9m -£25.7m
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%: change in universal_credit -£5.1m -£5.1m -£8.5m -£13.0m -£15.7m -£16.1m -£16.8m
Raise the State Pension by 10%: change in state_pension -£34.1m -£34.5m -£35.1m -£35.2m -£36.3m -£37.4m -£38.4m

Household net income by decile

The datasets hold different households, so households are not matched; compare the mean income in each side's own deciles.

Checks failing on both base and head (4)
  • Each model total's components are exactly the partition's heads and declared double counts (closure): gov_spending: the partition puts 'healthy_start_vouchers' in this total, but the model does not add it; gov_spending: the partition puts 'scottish_child_payment' in this total, but the model does not add it; gov_spending: the partition puts 'statutory_paternity_pay' in this total, but the model does not add it
  • VAT is never negative (sign:vat): 2025-26: 65 units below zero, a weighted £-81,930,140 in total; 2026-27: 65 units below zero, a weighted £-84,133,035 in total; 2027-28: 65 units below zero, a weighted £-86,133,214 in total
  • The partition's heads and declared double counts add up to gov_spending (identity:gov_spending): 2025-26: 350 households differ, by a weighted £536,005,095 in total (households holding a figure from fewer than 10 records aren't checked this year); 2026-27: 352 households differ, by a weighted £557,157,825 in total (households holding a figure from fewer than 10 records aren't checked this year); 2027-28: 352 households differ, by a weighted £570,697,294 in total (households holding a figure from fewer than 10 records aren't checked this year)
  • The partition's heads and declared double counts add up to household_benefits (identity:household_benefits): 2025-26: 1,835 households differ, by a weighted £92,466,727 in total (households holding a figure from fewer than 10 records aren't checked this year); 2026-27: 1,802 households differ, by a weighted £94,314,624 in total (households holding a figure from fewer than 10 records aren't checked this year); 2027-28: 1,757 households differ, by a weighted £94,814,886 in total (households holding a figure from fewer than 10 records aren't checked this year)
Counted-once check

Counted-once check not run: not requested.

Provenance
Side Commit Runtime Environment hash Partition hash Time
base policyengi uk 2.122.2 (files 0cb87d75a516), core 3.32.13, py 3.13.16 x86_64 a9ab0df50691 e8ea8a019873 153.37s
head policyengi uk 2.122.2 (files 0cb87d75a516), core 3.32.13, py 3.13.16 x86_64 a9ab0df50691 e8ea8a019873 210.85s

Base dataset: enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5, sha256 79c188d351a613bddb07937c6455afaed60af88f0c215beea918455e89cb5a33, the base's build.

Head dataset: enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5, sha256 7e621a36ed4f5a808df432168ed8c49835d6e6713e4f7c77e9407093aa319c82, this pull request's build.

Receipts by tax head: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Income tax £297.17bn £316.60bn £332.52bn £346.87bn £362.80bn £380.16bn £399.98bn
National Insurance (employee and self-employed) £51.06bn £53.26bn £55.01bn £56.59bn £58.50bn £60.31bn £62.63bn
National Insurance (employer) £150.81bn £157.24bn £162.11bn £166.62bn £173.33bn £178.75bn £185.79bn
Employer NI change borne by capital £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Employer NI change borne by consumers £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Capital gains tax £25.08bn £25.93bn £26.88bn £27.84bn £28.81bn £29.87bn £30.96bn
Student loan repayments £7.69bn £7.98bn £8.20bn £8.41bn £8.63bn £8.88bn £8.26bn
VAT £324.00bn £332.71bn £340.62bn £348.83bn £357.37bn £366.16bn £375.09bn
Change in VAT from its baseline £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
VAT on private school fees £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Fuel duties £24.04bn £24.14bn £26.10bn £26.16bn £25.89bn £25.24bn £25.82bn
Alcohol duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Tobacco duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Vehicle excise duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
TV licence fee £4.51bn £4.66bn £4.68bn £4.70bn £4.72bn £4.75bn £4.77bn
Council tax £48.69bn £51.52bn £54.78bn £58.31bn £61.84bn £65.51bn £65.80bn
High value council tax surcharge £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.69bn £0.71bn £0.73bn £0.75bn
Northern Ireland domestic rates £1.12bn £1.18bn £1.23bn £1.29bn £1.35bn £1.42bn £1.42bn
Business rates £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn
Stamp duty land tax (own purchases, and corporate until the £19.78bn £20.67bn £21.65bn £22.63bn £23.65bn £24.77bn £25.98bn
Land transaction tax (Wales) £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn
Land and buildings transaction tax (Scotland) £0.06bn £0.06bn £0.06bn £0.06bn £0.07bn £0.07bn £0.07bn
Unspecified tax change borne by capital £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Unspecified tax change borne by consumers £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Wealth tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Wealth tax excluding the main residence £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Land value tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Carbon tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Spending by benefit and service: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
State Pension £133.13bn £138.20bn £140.44bn £142.81bn £147.03bn £151.38bn £155.83bn
Pension Credit £6.53bn £7.13bn £7.02bn £7.07bn £7.18bn £7.29bn £7.30bn
Winter Fuel Payment £1.68bn £1.66bn £1.61bn £1.59bn £1.58bn £1.57bn £1.57bn
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland) £0.09bn £0.09bn £0.09bn £0.10bn £0.10bn £0.10bn £0.10bn
Universal Credit £78.92bn £83.11bn £84.92bn £86.42bn £87.33bn £84.60bn £85.11bn
Housing Benefit £8.33bn £8.66bn £8.85bn £9.06bn £9.33bn £9.58bn £9.54bn
Council Tax Reduction £2.19bn £2.24bn £2.31bn £2.38bn £2.44bn £2.51bn £2.48bn
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related) £3.20bn £3.29bn £3.36bn £3.44bn £3.52bn £3.61bn £3.69bn
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based) £4.74bn £4.87bn £4.98bn £5.10bn £5.23bn £5.36bn £5.49bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based) £0.04bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based) £0.29bn £0.30bn £0.30bn £0.31bn £0.32bn £0.33bn £0.33bn
Income Support £0.16bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Working Tax Credit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Child Tax Credit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Incapacity Benefit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Personal Independence Payment £30.07bn £31.34bn £32.18bn £32.95bn £33.76bn £34.59bn £35.43bn
Disability Living Allowance £8.33bn £8.68bn £8.91bn £9.13bn £9.35bn £9.58bn £9.82bn
Attendance Allowance £7.71bn £8.03bn £8.24bn £8.44bn £8.65bn £8.86bn £9.08bn
Carer's Allowance £3.91bn £4.07bn £4.18bn £4.28bn £4.38bn £4.49bn £4.60bn
Carer Support Payment (Scotland) £0.32bn £0.33bn £0.34bn £0.35bn £0.36bn £0.36bn £0.37bn
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland) £0.00bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn
Severe Disablement Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit £0.63bn £0.64bn £0.66bn £0.67bn £0.69bn £0.71bn £0.72bn
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme £0.55bn £0.56bn £0.57bn £0.59bn £0.60bn £0.62bn £0.63bn
Child Benefit £16.38bn £17.02bn £17.45bn £17.85bn £18.27bn £18.71bn £19.11bn
Scottish Child Payment £0.48bn £0.50bn £0.51bn £0.52bn £0.53bn £0.54bn £0.55bn
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual) £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Healthy Start vouchers £0.06bn £0.06bn £0.06bn £0.06bn £0.06bn £0.06bn £0.06bn
Maternity Allowance £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Statutory Maternity Pay £3.83bn £3.93bn £4.02bn £4.12bn £4.22bn £4.33bn £4.43bn
Statutory Paternity Pay £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Statutory Sick Pay £0.99bn £1.02bn £1.04bn £1.07bn £1.10bn £1.12bn £1.15bn
Sure Start Maternity Grant £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn
Bereavement Support Payment £1.15bn £1.19bn £1.21bn £1.24bn £1.27bn £1.30bn £1.34bn
Tax-Free Childcare £0.45bn £0.44bn £0.45bn £0.46bn £0.46bn £0.48bn £0.48bn
Extended childcare entitlement £3.81bn £4.23bn £4.34bn £4.46bn £4.58bn £4.80bn £4.89bn
Universal childcare entitlement £1.52bn £1.60bn £1.65bn £1.69bn £1.73bn £1.76bn £1.80bn
Targeted childcare entitlement £0.38bn £0.39bn £0.40bn £0.41bn £0.42bn £0.42bn £0.41bn
Care to Learn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Childcare Grant £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Parents' Learning Allowance £0.19bn £0.19bn £0.19bn £0.19bn £0.19bn £0.20bn £0.20bn
Adult Dependants' Grant £0.06bn £0.06bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn
Travel Grant £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
NHS spending £208.34bn £209.14bn £209.91bn £210.75bn £211.68bn £212.63bn £213.54bn
State education spending suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Transport subsidy spending £25.15bn £25.25bn £25.34bn £25.44bn £25.55bn £25.67bn £30.94bn
Cost-of-living support payment £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Energy Bills Rebate £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Basic income £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Disability basic income £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Other public spending budget change £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Caseloads: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
State Pension 11,734k 11,629k 11,380k 11,293k 11,342k 11,393k 11,443k
Pension Credit 1,364k 1,380k 1,340k 1,324k 1,323k 1,320k 1,302k
Winter Fuel Payment 7,131k 7,003k 6,789k 6,658k 6,636k 6,601k 6,588k
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland) 708k 701k 689k 683k 686k 689k 692k
Universal Credit 6,386k 6,414k 6,437k 6,441k 6,416k 6,403k 6,382k
Housing Benefit 1,209k 1,206k 1,201k 1,197k 1,203k 1,202k 1,199k
Council Tax Reduction 3,613k 3,638k 3,685k 3,710k 3,729k 3,747k 3,714k
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related) 309k 310k 312k 312k 314k 315k 317k
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based) 667k 670k 672k 675k 678k 681k 684k
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based) 9k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based) 60k 60k 61k 61k 61k 61k 62k
Income Support 26k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Working Tax Credit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Child Tax Credit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Incapacity Benefit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Personal Independence Payment 4,084k 4,100k 4,115k 4,131k 4,150k 4,168k 4,186k
Disability Living Allowance 1,369k 1,375k 1,380k 1,385k 1,391k 1,397k 1,403k
Attendance Allowance 1,525k 1,531k 1,537k 1,543k 1,550k 1,557k 1,563k
Carer's Allowance 902k 905k 909k 912k 916k 920k 924k
Carer Support Payment (Scotland) 73k 73k 74k 74k 74k 75k 75k
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland) 0k 73k 74k 74k 74k 75k 75k
Severe Disablement Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit 158k 158k 159k 160k 160k 161k 162k
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme 61k 61k 61k 61k 62k 62k 62k
Child Benefit 7,979k 7,993k 8,007k 8,034k 8,060k 8,092k 8,105k
Scottish Child Payment 337k 338k 340k 341k 339k 341k 339k
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual) 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Healthy Start vouchers 238k 239k 240k 241k 242k 243k 244k
Maternity Allowance 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Statutory Maternity Pay 305k 306k 307k 308k 310k 311k 312k
Statutory Paternity Pay 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Statutory Sick Pay 156k 157k 157k 158k 159k 159k 160k
Sure Start Maternity Grant 22k 22k 22k 22k 23k 23k 23k
Bereavement Support Payment 186k 187k 187k 188k 189k 190k 191k
Tax-Free Childcare 965k 955k 957k 962k 940k 956k 944k
Extended childcare entitlement 803k 795k 801k 805k 807k 837k 835k
Universal childcare entitlement 443k 452k 454k 455k 457k 455k 458k
Targeted childcare entitlement 78k 78k 78k 79k 79k 77k 74k
Care to Learn 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Childcare Grant 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Parents' Learning Allowance 94k 95k 95k 96k 96k 96k 97k
Adult Dependants' Grant 17k 17k 15k 15k 15k 15k 14k
Travel Grant 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Cost-of-living support payment 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Energy Bills Rebate 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Basic income 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Disability basic income 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Government balance, each component counted once: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Government receipts, each component once £985.75bn £1,027.70bn £1,065.61bn £1,100.77bn £1,139.41bn £1,178.35bn £1,219.06bn
Government spending £553.62bn † £568.27bn † £575.68bn † £583.06bn † £592.01bn † £597.65bn † £611.12bn †
Government balance, each receipt once £432.14bn † £459.43bn † £489.92bn † £517.71bn † £547.40bn † £580.71bn † £607.94bn †
Benefits in household_benefits but not in gov_spending £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Model totals: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
gov_tax £988.88bn £1,030.83bn £1,068.74bn £1,103.90bn £1,142.54bn £1,181.48bn £1,222.19bn
household_tax £514.07bn £540.88bn £566.00bn £588.45bn £611.84bn £636.58bn £661.32bn
pre_budget_change_household_tax £506.38bn £532.90bn £557.80bn £579.35bn £602.50bn £626.97bn £652.31bn
gov_spending £553.62bn † £568.27bn † £575.68bn † £583.06bn † £592.01bn † £597.65bn † £611.12bn †
household_benefits £553.62bn † £568.27bn † £575.68bn † £583.06bn † £592.01bn † £597.65bn † £611.12bn †
gov_balance £435.27bn † £462.56bn † £493.05bn † £520.84bn † £550.53bn † £583.84bn † £611.07bn †
Components the model counts twice: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
corporate_sdlt, counted again inside expected_sdlt £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn
Household income totals: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Household market income £1,658.50bn £1,720.63bn £1,773.31bn £1,823.91bn £1,889.29bn £1,947.74bn £2,019.61bn
Household net income £1,656.79bn † £1,705.20bn † £1,738.99bn † £1,773.41bn † £1,808.97bn † £1,846.93bn † £1,904.97bn †
Household net income (HBAI definition) suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Population: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
People 70,733k 71,002k 71,265k 71,550k 71,864k 72,188k 72,498k
Benefit units 38,936k 39,084k 39,229k 39,386k 39,559k 39,737k 39,908k
Households 32,059k 32,181k 32,300k 32,429k 32,571k 32,718k 32,859k
Poverty rates: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
People in poverty: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Inequality: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Gini coefficient, equivalised HBAI income before housing costs suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Mean household net income in each side's own deciles: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Decile 9: mean household_net_income per household suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Decile 10: mean household_net_income per household suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance): head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp £6.03bn £6.30bn £6.50bn £6.70bn £6.90bn £7.12bn £7.38bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp £3.74bn £4.03bn £4.27bn £4.49bn £4.75bn £5.04bn £5.25bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year £-3.58bn £-3.69bn £-3.79bn £-3.85bn £-3.91bn £-3.98bn £-1.67bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child £-2.04bn £-1.80bn £-1.68bn £-1.57bn £-1.47bn £-1.36bn £-1.25bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20% £-16.76bn £-17.40bn £-17.64bn £-17.83bn £-17.87bn £-18.08bn £-18.09bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10% £10.61bn £11.02bn £11.33bn £11.58bn £11.87bn £12.17bn £12.61bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp £31.95bn £32.81bn £33.59bn £34.40bn £35.24bn £36.11bn £36.99bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp £3.26bn £3.51bn £3.72bn £3.93bn £4.17bn £4.42bn £4.78bn
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10% £-2.96bn £-3.11bn £-3.16bn £-3.20bn £-3.23bn £-3.27bn £-3.31bn
Raise the State Pension by 10% £-9.73bn £-9.99bn £-10.06bn £-10.16bn £-10.39bn £-10.64bn £-10.92bn
Standard reforms: change in each reform's target: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp: change in income_tax £6.14bn £6.42bn £6.63bn £6.83bn £7.03bn £7.26bn £7.52bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp: change in income_tax £3.74bn £4.04bn £4.28bn £4.50bn £4.76bn £5.04bn £5.26bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year: change in income_tax £-3.68bn £-3.81bn £-3.91bn £-3.97bn £-4.03bn £-4.11bn £-1.73bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child: change in child_benefit £2.50bn £2.29bn £2.16bn £2.05bn £1.94bn £1.82bn £1.69bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%: change in universal_credit £16.80bn £17.44bn £17.68bn £17.87bn £17.91bn £18.12bn £18.13bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%: change in national_insurance £10.80bn £11.21bn £11.52bn £11.80bn £12.09bn £12.40bn £12.85bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp: change in vat £31.95bn £32.81bn £33.59bn £34.40bn £35.24bn £36.11bn £36.99bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax £3.26bn £3.51bn £3.72bn £3.93bn £4.17bn £4.42bn £4.78bn
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%: change in universal_credit £2.97bn £3.11bn £3.17bn £3.21bn £3.23bn £3.27bn £3.32bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%: change in state_pension £13.31bn £13.82bn £14.04bn £14.28bn £14.70bn £15.14bn £15.58bn

@vahid-ahmadi
vahid-ahmadi marked this pull request as ready for review October 23, 2026 22:03

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