[vahid-ahmadi]

Adds the statutory council tax discounts under the Local Government Finance Act 1992 — s.11 (England), s.79 (Scotland), and s.11 then s.11E with the 2026 Welsh Regulations (Wales). Nuffield Workstream 2 deliverable; part of #1854.

axiom: TheAxiomFoundation/rulespec-uk#469 queued (LGFA 1992 ss.11, 11E, 79 and SI 2026/8 (W.) regs 3 and 4 are not in the corpus; each returns 404)

What this adds

• Parameters under gov.local_authorities.council_tax.discounts, one file per nation following the band_ratios/ convention:
  • appropriate_percentage.{england,wales,scotland} — 25% from 1993-04-01 in each, referenced to LGFA 1992 s.11(3), s.79(3), and s.11(3) then s.11E with reg. 3 of the Welsh Regulations 2026 respectively.
  • no_resident_multiple.{england,wales,scotland} — the "twice" of s.11(2), which is not uniform: England 2 throughout; Scotland 2 then 0 from 1 April 2005 (s.79(2)(a) repealed by S.S.I. 2005/51 reg. 2); Wales 2 then 0 from 1 April 2026 (no general no-resident discount in the 2026 Regulations).
• Variable council_tax_discount_rate (household) — the appropriate percentage where there is one resident who is not disregarded (s.11(1) England, s.79(1) Scotland, reg. 3 Wales); and, where the nation still provides for it, the multiple times that percentage where there is no such resident. Northern Ireland is zero, as it levies domestic rates.
• Variable simulated_council_tax_less_discounts (household) — simulated_council_tax * (1 - council_tax_discount_rate).
• YAML policy tests plus a pytest that pins the derivation.

The existing council_tax input variable is untouched.

The 25% is the parameter; 50% is derived

s.11(3) sets the appropriate percentage at 25 per cent "unless the Secretary of State by order otherwise provides". The familiar 50% for an unoccupied dwelling is not a printed statutory figure — it is s.11(2)'s "twice the appropriate percentage". So only 0.25 is encoded, and the no-resident rate is computed as 2 * p.

policyengine_uk/tests/test_council_tax_discount_derivation.py proves this: it sets the parameter to 0.3 and asserts the single-resident rate becomes 0.3 and the no-resident rate becomes 0.6, plus a p=0 case that zeroes both. A hardcoded 0.5 would fail these. This test is a pytest rather than a YAML test because the YAML test runner's reforms: key takes reform module paths, not parameter overrides.

Disregards: what is exact and what is not

LGFA 1992 s.6(5) defines a resident as an individual aged 18 or over who has their sole or main residence in the dwelling. So counting residents as adults aged 18+ is the statutory test, not an approximation.

The approximation is narrower and is this: Schedule 1 disregarded-person categories are not modelled, so every resident is treated as never disregarded. Consequences, stated in the variable docstring too:

• A two-adult household where one adult is disregarded (e.g. a full-time student) should get the 25% discount. Here it gets none.
• A household whose only adults are all disregarded should get 50%. Here it gets none.

The discount is therefore understated, not overstated. Adding Schedule 1 will change these results.

Relationship to #1855

This is based on council-tax-computed-liability (#1855), not main, and the PR base is set accordingly. This is a genuine dependency, flagged rather than stacked silently:

• Applying a discount requires a gross-of-discount base. On main the only council tax figure is the FRS-supplied council_tax input. pe-uk-data documents that variable as "the gross liability before CTR" (targets/compute/council_tax.py) — i.e. gross of Council Tax Reduction, and silent on statutory discounts. FRS-reported council tax is generally the amount the household is billed, which is already net of any single-person discount; multiplying it by (1 - rate) would double-discount. I am flagging that FRS point as inference, not as something the repo states.
• simulated_council_tax from Compute gross council tax from LA Band D amounts and statutory band ratios #1855 is gross of discounts by construction, so it is the correct base.

The parameter and council_tax_discount_rate are fully independent of #1855's open design question (whether council tax should be computed under the per-LA weighting context rather than a household("local_authority") enum lookup). They are driven by household composition only and survive either resolution. If #1855 changes shape, only simulated_council_tax_less_discounts needs re-pointing at whatever the gross variable becomes. Nothing here touches the LA lookup design.

Microcosm adapter safety — safe

Checked packages/microcosm-frame/src/microcosm/frame/adapters/policyengine_uk.py. _is_engine_computed (lines 157–162) returns True if a variable has adds, subtracts, formula, or formulas. Both new variables define a formula, so both classify as engine-computed and are materialised by materialize() via simulation.calculate. Neither can ever be requested as a supplied input column. The new parameter is not a variable and is invisible to the adapter. No incompatibility found.

Test output

All run with PYTHONPATH=. (a stale non-editable policyengine_uk in site-packages otherwise shadows the working tree).

policyengine-core test policyengine_uk/tests/policy -c policyengine_uk:

1135 passed, 1 warning in 23.25s

Council tax directory only (16 new cases + 22 existing from #1855), rerun at 7849ca4:

38 passed, 1 warning in 0.35s

pytest policyengine_uk/tests/ --ignore=policyengine_uk/tests/microsimulation:

152 passed, 17 skipped, 6 warnings in 93.38s

Derivation test alone, rerun at 7849ca4:

3 passed in 7.58s

The full-suite figures above (1135 and 152 passed) are from an earlier head and were not rerun at 7849ca4.

The microsimulation/ directory was excluded as it requires dataset downloads; no source there is touched by this change.

Out of scope — follow-ups

Deliberately not built here:

• Schedule 1 disregarded-person categories (students, severe mental impairment, carers, apprentices, etc.) — the largest gap, and the one that changes numbers above.
• s.11A billing-authority determinations (discounts varied locally for empty/second homes).
• s.11B / s.11C long-term-empty and second-home premiums.
• s.11D excepted classes of dwelling.
• Exemptions (Class A–W exempt dwellings).
• Welsh and Scottish premiums and determinations — ss.12A/12B (Wales) and the Scottish unoccupied-dwelling provisions. The discounts themselves are now modelled for all three nations (see the scope commit); these local premium powers are not.

The discount now applies across Great Britain, each nation under its own verified provision — LGFA 1992 s.11 (England), s.79 (Scotland), and s.11 then s.11E with the Council Tax (Discounts, Disregards and Exemptions) (Wales) Regulations 2026 (Wales). Northern Ireland levies domestic rates and is zero. See the review reply below for the citations and for the no-resident asymmetry between nations.

Closes part of #1854.

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

[juaristi22]

The encoding is right: 0.25 as the parameter, the no-resident rate derived as twice it, and the pytest pins the derivation. Not blocking while this sits on #1855; two asks before approval.

1. Scope across nations. The rate is zero outside England, so simulated_council_tax_less_discounts is net of the discount in England and gross in Wales and Scotland. Both apply a 25 per cent single-person discount in practice (Scotland under section 79 of the same Act). Either apply it GB-wide with the citations, or name the variable as England-only, so that a UK aggregate does not mix bases. This matters for the validation step in #1854 and for Microcosm's OBR nation rows.
2. Zero-adult branch. On survey households the no-resident case is unreachable (FRS households have an adult reference person), so the doubled rate only ever fires on synthetic inputs. Fine as statute; say so in the docstring.

Minor: the resident count via is_adult (age 18 or over) matches the FRS adulth single-adult flag that both policyengine-uk-data and Microcosm use for council tax cell means, so the two sides agree on who counts.

Nothing here needs porting to Microcosm. Once #1855 lands and Microcosm supplies local_authority, the CTB line 8 single-adult-discount dwelling counts per authority (already in Chronicle) become a validation surface for this variable, since counts are additive.

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

[vahid-ahmadi]

Both asks addressed in 248e708. On Ask 1 I took the GB-wide route, because all three citations verified — but with one correction to the premise, which changed the design.

Ask 1 — scope across nations: applied GB-wide

You're right that the 25 per cent single-person discount applies in all three nations, and I've verified each provision on legislation.gov.uk rather than assuming s.11 carries Wales:

Nation	Single-resident discount	Verified reference
England	25%	LGFA 1992 s.11(1), appropriate percentage 25% under s.11(3)
Scotland	25%	LGFA 1992 s.79(1), appropriate percentage 25% under s.79(3)
Wales, to 31 Mar 2026	25%	LGFA 1992 s.11(1) as it then applied to England and Wales
Wales, from 1 Apr 2026	25%	s.11E + reg. 3, Council Tax (Discounts, Disregards and Exemptions) (Wales) Regulations 2026 (S.I. 2026/8 (W.))

The Welsh point is the one worth flagging, since a previous look at this couldn't trace where the Welsh discount went. The answer is that the Local Government Finance (Wales) Act 2024 (asc 6) inserted the words "in England" into s.11 with effect 1 April 2026 (notes F1, F2, F6, F8 on s.11), and separately inserted new ss.11E ("Discounts: Wales") and 11F. s.12 was omitted at the same time. s.11E prints no percentage at all — it delegates entirely to Welsh Ministers' regulations — and the regulations made under it, S.I. 2026/8 (W.) reg. 3, prescribe the same 25 per cent. So the Welsh rate is numerically continuous across the reform, but its legal basis changes, and the parameter file carries both references with that noted explicitly rather than papered over.

So simulated_council_tax_less_discounts is now net of discount on the same basis in England, Wales and Scotland. Northern Ireland levies domestic rates rather than council tax and is zero throughout (simulated_council_tax was already zero there). A UK aggregate no longer mixes bases, which is what #1854's validation step and the OBR nation rows need.

But the no-resident case genuinely differs, so "twice" could not stay a constant

This is the part that changed the encoding, and it is the reason I did not simply widen the country test. Neither Wales nor Scotland now has a general no-resident doubling:

• Scotland: s.79(2)(a) — the "there is no resident" limb — was repealed with effect from 1 April 2005 by reg. 2 of the Council Tax (Discount for Unoccupied Dwellings) (Scotland) Regulations 2005 (S.S.I. 2005/51). What survives in s.79(2) is only limb (b), residents who are all disregarded. So from 2005 no discount arises under s.79 merely because a dwelling is unoccupied.
• Wales, from 1 April 2026: the 2026 Regulations prescribe 50 per cent only where there are residents and every one is disregarded (reg. 4), and for an unoccupied dwelling only in the narrow caravan-pitch, boat-mooring and job-related-dwelling cases (reg. 6). There is no general no-resident discount. Before 1 April 2026, s.11(2)(a) did apply to Wales.
• England: s.11(2)(a) is intact, giving twice the appropriate percentage.

Applying 2 * p GB-wide would therefore have been wrong, not merely uncited. So the doubling is now its own per-nation, time-varying parameter, discounts.no_resident_multiple: England 2 from 1993; Scotland 2 then 0 from 1 April 2005; Wales 2 then 0 from 1 April 2026.

Your point about the encoding survives this: the 50 per cent is still derived, not printed. no_resident_multiple is 2 because s.11(2) says the word "twice", and the England rate is still 2 * p, so the derivation pytest still bites — I only re-pointed its parameter path at appropriate_percentage.england. Where Wales post-2026 does print a literal 50 per cent (reg. 4), that is the all-disregarded limb, which this model cannot reach anyway since the disregards aren't implemented; that is noted in the docstring rather than encoded.

Parameter layout mirrors the existing band_ratios/{england,wales,scotland}.yaml convention from #1855, one file per nation carrying its own reference.

Ask 2 — zero-adult branch documented

Added to the council_tax_discount_rate docstring, under its own heading so it isn't lost in the statutory detail: every FRS household has an adult reference person, so a household with no resident aged 18 or over does not occur in the microdata; the doubled rate only ever fires on synthetic inputs such as the household calculator or the policy tests, and it is retained because it is what the statute says, not because it moves any survey-based aggregate. Statutory logic unchanged.

Minor — counting basis unchanged

Confirmed: still household.sum(household.members("is_adult", period)), i.e. 18+, matching the FRS adulth single-adult flag that policyengine-uk-data and Microcosm use for the council tax cell means. I didn't touch it, so the two sides still agree on who counts, and the CTB line 8 dwelling counts stay usable as the validation surface you describe once #1855 lands.

Tests

New per-nation policy cases: Wales and Scotland single adult → 0.25, Wales and Scotland two adults → 0, Scotland no resident → 0, Northern Ireland → 0, plus the Welsh no-resident transition pinned on both sides of the reform (2025 → 0.5 under s.11(2)(a), 2027 → 0). The Welsh case is tested in 2027 rather than 2026 because these are calendar-year parameters resolving at 1 January, so 2026 still sees the pre-reform value — a fiscal-vs-calendar-year wrinkle that is worth knowing about but is not specific to this variable. The new cases assert only council_tax_discount_rate and set only region, deliberately not local_authority, so they don't depend on the Band D amounts and Scottish band ratios still in flight on #1855.

All run with PYTHONPATH=.:

policyengine-core test policyengine_uk/tests/policy -c policyengine_uk:

1142 passed, 1 warning in 23.87s

Council tax directory only:

24 passed, 1 warning in 0.26s

pytest policyengine_uk/tests/ --ignore=policyengine_uk/tests/microsimulation:

152 passed, 17 skipped, 6 warnings in 101.83s

No failures, so nothing needed checking against the base commit. microsimulation/ still excluded as it needs dataset downloads.

Remaining gap, stated plainly

The disregards are still not modelled — Schedule 1 for England and Scotland, Part 3 of the 2026 Regulations for Wales — so the discount remains understated wherever a household contains a disregarded adult, now in all three nations rather than just England. That is unchanged by this commit and is still the largest single gap. I have also not modelled the Welsh s.11F "less discount or no discount" determinations, ss.12A/12B premiums, or the Scottish unoccupied-dwelling regulations that replaced s.79(2)(a); the PR body's out-of-scope list is updated accordingly.

I edited two lines of the PR description that this change falsified ("returns zero outside England" and the Wales/Scotland out-of-scope bullets), so the description and this reply don't contradict each other.

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

[vahid-ahmadi]

Two corrections to my reply above, both pushed in b19af8c — one of them matters because I asserted something in writing that turned out to be false.

1. The calendar-year claim was wrong. I said the Welsh post-reform case had to be tested in 2027 "because these calendar-year parameters resolve at 1 January, before the 1 April 2026 commencement." That is not how the repo behaves. These are annual parameters, so a change dated 1 April 2026 takes effect for the whole of model year 2026. I checked directly rather than reasoning about it:

2024  wales no_resident_multiple = 2.0
2025  wales no_resident_multiple = 2.0
2026  wales no_resident_multiple = 0.0
2027  wales no_resident_multiple = 0.0

So the test is now pinned at 2026, the actual commencement year, with the pre-reform case left at 2025 — which is the more meaningful pair anyway, since it brackets the reform exactly. The misleading comment in the YAML is replaced. No behaviour changed; only the test year and the explanation. This also means the statutory April dates in the parameter files line up cleanly with model years, so the fiscal-vs-calendar wrinkle I warned about does not exist here. Apologies for the noise.

2. The Welsh commencement is now verified, not inferred. My claim that the 25 per cent rate is "continuous across the change" rested on the 2026 Regulations commencing alongside s.11E, which I had not actually checked. Regulation 1 confirms it: the Regulations apply in relation to Wales and the discount provisions come into force on 1 April 2026 — the same day the Local Government Finance (Wales) Act 2024 narrows s.11 to England. So there is no gap and no overlap, and the continuity claim holds on verified ground rather than inference.

I have also updated the PR title, which still read "(LGFA 1992 s.11, England)", and the two "What this adds" bullets that still described appropriate_percentage as a single scalar. Title and description now match this thread.

Tests unchanged in outcome: 24 passed in the council tax directory, and the full suites are green (figures in the reply above).

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

[juaristi22]

Reviewed commit b19af8c5f1910b1ae567dfa5ad7bf5d469523b3d. Needs changes; review coverage is partial. Refresh the council-tax parent and make the omitted resident-disregard scope an explicit merge decision.

Parent refresh required. This branch targets #1855's council-tax-computed-liability branch but contains an older parent version. Its inherited council_tax_band_d_amount.py:1 predates that parent's expanded year and new-unitary coverage. #1855 also needs its confirmed duplicate-enum integration repair. A clean comparison against the old parent would not validate the final main composition.

Known partial coverage. council_tax_discount_rate.py:73 counts every adult as a counting resident. The same variable’s scope documentation explicitly says the student, carer and other statutory disregards are unmodelled. Consequently, a two-adult household with one qualifying disregarded resident takes the two-resident branch. This is a documented limitation requiring an integration decision; this audit did not newly execute a household counterexample or certify every devolved provision.

Repair and acceptance steps:

1. Refresh onto the repaired Compute gross council tax from LA Band D amounts and statutory band ratios #1855 parent, preserve its authority coverage and dated Band D values, then retarget to main after the parent lands. Resolve shared enum changes without duplicate definitions.
2. Decide whether this release implements resident disregards or intentionally exposes a partial discount calculation. For full statutory coverage, distinguish counting residents from all adults and check the nation-specific all-disregarded and unoccupied branches separately. If accepting partial scope, make that limitation explicit at the variable's consumer and in the PR's claims; avoid presenting the net liability as complete for those households.
3. Preserve the current nation-specific parameters. Test one and two ordinary adult residents in each Great Britain nation; test a child alongside one adult; retain Northern Ireland's separate treatment. Exercise Wales before and after the model's transition and Scotland's dated unoccupied rule using the documented parameter-period convention.
4. If implementing disregards, add one qualifying disregarded adult alongside one counting adult, and an all-disregarded household. Assert both the discount rate and resulting liability, with expected results derived from the cited provisions. Do not conflate all-disregarded residents with an empty dwelling.

Suggested checks after repair:

uv run --no-sync pytest policyengine_uk/tests/test_council_tax_discount_derivation.py -q
uv run --no-sync policyengine-core test policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/gov/local_authorities/council_tax -c policyengine_uk

Validation completed here: exact-head source and dependency inspection. No new local policy tests or population run were executed. The devolved 2026 sources and current data-side integration were not independently recertified; new-main CI and the scope decision remain acceptance requirements.

Live posting check (2026-10-02T15:12:27.633010+00:00): same reviewed commit; GitHub reports MERGEABLE. No hosted checks reported. These checks do not replace the remaining validation listed above.

[vahid-ahmadi]

Thanks, María. Addressed at f68ad58c, rebased onto the fixed #1855:

• Disregards scope made explicit: simulated_council_tax_less_discounts now says it is not the complete net liability and that its aggregates are an upper bound.
• New tests in council_tax_discounts.yaml:
  • one adult and a child in Maidstone (25%, £1,876.94);
  • a single adult in Cardiff (£1,509.89);
  • a single adult in Edinburgh (£1,219.54);
  • an empty Scottish dwelling in 2004 (0.5).
• Main's code-health test bans reading is_adult, so residents are now counted with age >= resident_minimum_age, a new cited parameter (LGFA 1992 ss. 6(5) and 18). Results don't change.

Locally: YAML suite 2,643 passed; code_health and derivation tests 1,968 passed; ruff clean.

[juaristi22]

Review of #1864 — Add statutory council tax discounts across Great Britain (LGFA 1992 ss.11 and 79; Welsh Regulations 2026)

Base repository: PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk
PR number: 1864
Reviewed head SHA: f68ad58
Merge base SHA: 283b0ae
Mode: full
Scope: changed behavior and affected dependencies
Source evidence: Official sources are linked below; local source copies and validation artifacts were retained.
Review status: PARTIAL

Source Documents

• current-policy-source-s14.html.
• current-policy-source-s16.html.
• current-policy-source-s17.html.
• current-policy-source-s18.html.
• current-policy-source-s20.html.
• current-policy-source-s22.html.
• current-policy-source-s30.html.
• current-policy-source-s31.html.
• current-policy-source-s32.html.

Critical

None.

Should Address

A1 — Use a configured Towncrier type for the changelog fragment (OPEN)

SHOULD ADDRESS — repository requirement. changelog.d/council-tax-statutory-discounts.md:1 omits the required type component. Snapshot docs/engineering/skills/github-prs.md requires <issue-number-or-branch-slug>.<type>.md; pyproject.toml:96 configures added, alongside breaking/changed/fixed/removed. The new filename has no configured type, so it does not meet the release-note classification contract. Rename it to council-tax-statutory-discounts.added.md and check the Towncrier draft. No tax-policy defect is claimed.

Suggestions

None.

Evidence Gaps

• The separate Scottish statutory resident-definition provision was not independently acquired; the new parameter cites England/Wales section 6(5) as GB-wide. No contrary age rule is established.
• Role checks incomplete: current-pr-1864-review-policy.md; see recovered report.

Notes

• Standalone computed gross/discount outputs do not replace reported payable council tax or change household net income; this is the declared scope.
• Initial collection failed for two unchanged optional uprating property paths because Hypothesis is unavailable; required changed/direct tests passed together after excluding them.
• Policy role confirmed legal amounts/rates/dates within partial scope; private population claims and citation qualifications remain policy-owned.
• Welsh 2026 changes, Scottish 2005 repeal and 25% rates corroborated.
• Disregards and exemptions intentionally omitted; new outputs are standalone and explicitly partial.

Validation Summary

181 passed, 1 warning in 7.22s, exit 0; bounded elapsed 11.2s. Exact snapshot Python import with bytecode disabled; run_bounded.py --seconds 540 review-code-test-runner.py current-pr-1864-code-tests-config.json; passing output current-pr-1864-code-tests-required.log, initial collection output current-pr-1864-code-tests.log. Focused nation vector and final standalone/payable/net-income assertions: run_bounded.py --seconds 150 current-council-tax-code-diagnostic.py 1864, exit 0 in 4.36s; output current-pr-1864-code-diagnostic.log. Existing Python3.13 interpreter used; no installs.

Exact captured diff and source originals read. current-pr-1864-review-sources.json; current-pr-1864-review-source-cache-check.json. Source acquisition timing in current-policy-source-acquisition.json; source extracts checked independently of PR body. No duplicate policy-calculation diagnostics. Canonical source-manifest validator exited 0.

CI at f68ad58: No checks reported at capture.

Detailed code, policy, source and reproduction artifacts were retained locally.

Timing

elapsed seconds: 1151.70s; setup seconds: 271.84s

Review Severity

COMMENT. Open findings: 0 critical, 1 should address, 0 suggestions.

[vahid-ahmadi]

Thanks, María. Renamed the fragment to changelog.d/council-tax-statutory-discounts.added.md in 4b311f5, so Towncrier now files it under "added". No code changes.

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

[juaristi22]

Re-reviewed 7849ca46f8ef26fb4b6d3fe767472f104bc2fb76. A1 is resolved: Towncrier now renders the renamed .added.md fragment. I also closed the Scottish resident-definition source gap: LGFA1992 section99(1) requires age18 and sole/main residence, matching the encoded rule. All11 PR-owned model/test files are unchanged from the previous review, and61 focused tests pass against the updated stacked head. I am approving the implementation.

Minor citation improvement: add section99(1) beside section6(5) in the resident-age parameter/documentation; section6 itself covers England/Wales. This does not change the age rule or outputs.

Merge gates remain: this is still stacked on #1855 and no current-head hosted checks are reported. Land the base, retarget, and obtain the required passing CI before merging. Local review approval does not establish those gates.

[vahid-ahmadi]

@juaristi22 I've added the axiom line:

axiom: TheAxiomFoundation/rulespec-uk#469 queued (LGFA 1992 ss.11, 11E, 79 and SI 2026/8 (W.) regs 3 and 4 are not in the corpus; each returns 404)

TheAxiomFoundation/rulespec-uk#469 is the dispatch-ready pe-parity issue for the discounts. It links to TheAxiomFoundation/rulespec-uk#468 for the #1855 band amounts. I also fixed the stale test counts in the description. The council tax directory has 16 new cases plus 22 from #1855, and a rerun at 7849ca46f gives 38 passed. No code changed. Fix evidence only runs on PRs into main, so I ran .github/check_fix_pr.py locally against this body: PASS (not a fix PR).

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

[vahid-ahmadi]

@juaristi22 thanks for the approval. I've taken your minor citation point in c8f8567: resident_minimum_age.yaml now cites LGFA 1992 s.99(1) beside s.6(5), and its description says s.6(5) covers England and Wales (Part I) and s.99(1) Scotland (Part II). The formula comment and the YAML test note say the same. No value or output changes: the council tax YAML directory gives 38 passed, test_council_tax_discount_derivation.py 3 passed, and tests/code_health 2,350 passed.

This changes the head after your approval, so it's a citation-only update for you to check. It is still stacked on #1855, so hosted checks will run once that lands and this retargets to main.

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

[juaristi22]

Re-reviewed c8f85676fdc256b336afd845d534dd576fd3b4a6.

S1 is resolved: the resident-age parameter now cites LGFA 1992 s.99(1) for Scotland alongside s.6(5) for England/Wales. The permitted queued record in rulespec-uk#469 is dispatch-ready and documents its corpus/encoder blocker.

Only references, descriptions and comments changed. I retained the previous 61 passing local tests because executable behavior and dependencies are unchanged, and renew implementation approval at this commit.

Landing gates remain: #1855 must land, this PR must be retargeted/integrated, and the required CI must pass. No hosted checks are currently reported for this head.

Review status: COMPLETE. No open critical findings.

[github-actions]

Aggregate impact on certified data: pass

Base 9d81a5dfa8 against head 2a9d8de8d0, both on enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5 (policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1, sha256 056e80fd8e91), fiscal years 2025-26 to 2031-32. Each year is a full microsimulation run on each side.

Checks: 0 broken by this change, 1 failing on both sides, 0 fixed. Moves flagged for review: 0 (thresholds in report_spec.yaml; a flag does not fail the job).

Workflow run and full report

Notes

• In the years a figure from fewer than 10 records is suppressed (spending.disabled_students_allowance), every total containing it, and the decile incomes, are rebuilt from their other components, so no published total includes it. Those totals are marked †. A change is withheld where the two sides leave out different figures and can't be lined up.

Moves flagged for review

None.

Spending by benefit and service

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed

Caseloads

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed

Household net income by decile

No household's net income changes in any year.

No change in any year: receipts by tax head; government balance, each component counted once; model totals; components the model counts twice; household income totals; population; poverty rates; people in poverty; inequality; mean household net income in each side's own deciles; standard reform costings (change in gov_balance); standard reforms: change in each reform's target.

Checks failing on both base and head (1)

• VAT is never negative (sign:vat): 2025-26: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-54,797,972 in total; 2026-27: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-56,271,349 in total; 2027-28: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-57,609,146 in total

Counted-once check

Each of 84 components was raised by £1 per unit in 2026-27, and every head of its totals was read household by household: its own head must rise by exactly £1, no other tax head may move, no other benefit may rise, and the model's own total must move by what its heads moved. A head that breaks a rule is measured again twice: with every other head held at its baseline value, and with every other head held at its value after the first £1 while the component rises again. It fails where either still shows the response. 0 failed; 0 were skipped.

• declared double count corporate_sdlt is still contained in expected_sdlt (coefficient 1.000; Corporate SDLT is counted twice in household and government tax totals #2159)

Provenance

Side	Commit	Runtime	Environment hash	Partition hash	Time
base	main 9d81a5dfa8	uk 2.146.2 (files 582dff2713e2), core 3.33.2, py 3.13.17 aarch64	6a24b7ff580b	f210f83d5be4	1456.44s
head	#1864 merged into main 2a9d8de8d0	uk 2.146.2 (files 9adf88964847), core 3.33.2, py 3.13.17 aarch64	6a24b7ff580b	f210f83d5be4	1447.99s

Dataset: hf://policyengine/policyengine-uk-data-private/enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5@2526edbbb687a3b54dbb11272e5389e4b62d2ac2, sha256 056e80fd8e9151d78f432a25cde863340baee81304c6216a37fb575ce8563784 (verified on both sides), policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1.

Receipts by tax head: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Income tax	£299.29bn	£319.01bn	£336.47bn	£351.62bn	£367.17bn	£385.29bn	£403.59bn
National Insurance (employee and self-employed)	£52.58bn	£54.94bn	£56.75bn	£58.48bn	£60.62bn	£62.57bn	£65.03bn
National Insurance (employer)	£152.64bn	£159.18bn	£164.14bn	£168.73bn	£176.11bn	£181.72bn	£188.90bn
Employer NI change borne by capital	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Employer NI change borne by consumers	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Capital gains tax	£12.62bn	£13.06bn	£13.55bn	£14.04bn	£14.54bn	£15.09bn	£15.65bn
Student loan repayments	£7.83bn	£8.12bn	£8.35bn	£8.56bn	£8.79bn	£9.04bn	£9.38bn
VAT	£253.71bn	£260.53bn	£266.72bn	£273.14bn	£279.83bn	£286.71bn	£293.71bn
Change in VAT from its baseline	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
VAT on private school fees	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Fuel duties	£24.53bn	£24.64bn	£26.64bn	£26.69bn	£26.42bn	£25.76bn	£26.35bn
Alcohol duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Tobacco duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Vehicle excise duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
TV licence fee	£4.28bn	£4.43bn	£4.44bn	£4.46bn	£4.48bn	£4.51bn	£4.53bn
Council tax	£49.56bn	£52.45bn	£55.78bn	£59.39bn	£62.98bn	£66.74bn	£70.70bn
High value council tax surcharge	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.48bn	£0.49bn	£0.51bn	£0.52bn
Northern Ireland domestic rates	£0.55bn	£0.58bn	£0.61bn	£0.63bn	£0.67bn	£0.70bn	£0.73bn
Business rates	£31.73bn	£31.73bn	£31.73bn	£31.73bn	£31.73bn	£31.73bn	£31.73bn
Stamp duty land tax (own purchases, and corporate until the	£10.06bn	£10.56bn	£10.98bn	£11.40bn	£11.81bn	£12.23bn	£12.64bn
Land transaction tax (Wales)	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Land and buildings transaction tax (Scotland)	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn
Unspecified tax change borne by capital	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Unspecified tax change borne by consumers	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Wealth tax	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Wealth tax excluding the main residence	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Land value tax	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Carbon tax	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn

Spending by benefit and service: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
State Pension	£122.15bn	£126.64bn	£127.57bn	£129.47bn	£133.29bn	£137.24bn	£141.32bn
Pension Credit	£6.68bn	£7.07bn	£7.06bn	£7.13bn	£7.26bn	£7.39bn	£7.49bn
Winter Fuel Payment	£1.70bn	£1.68bn	£1.59bn	£1.58bn	£1.57bn	£1.55bn	£1.52bn
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland)	£0.19bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.21bn	£0.21bn	£0.22bn	£0.22bn
Universal Credit	£78.81bn	£83.11bn	£84.93bn	£86.69bn	£87.61bn	£89.03bn	£90.35bn
Housing Benefit	£8.59bn	£8.93bn	£9.19bn	£9.34bn	£9.61bn	£9.87bn	£10.15bn
Council Tax Reduction	£1.99bn	£2.03bn	£2.08bn	£2.13bn	£2.18bn	£2.23bn	£2.29bn
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related)	£2.12bn	£2.18bn	£2.23bn	£2.28bn	£2.33bn	£2.39bn	£2.45bn
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based)	£5.22bn	£5.36bn	£5.49bn	£5.62bn	£5.76bn	£5.90bn	£6.04bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based)	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based)	£0.29bn	£0.30bn	£0.30bn	£0.31bn	£0.32bn	£0.33bn	£0.33bn
Income Support	£0.12bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Working Tax Credit	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Child Tax Credit	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Incapacity Benefit	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Personal Independence Payment	£27.05bn	£28.19bn	£28.94bn	£29.64bn	£30.37bn	£31.11bn	£31.87bn
Disability Living Allowance	£7.52bn	£7.83bn	£8.04bn	£8.24bn	£8.44bn	£8.65bn	£8.86bn
Attendance Allowance	£8.71bn	£9.08bn	£9.32bn	£9.55bn	£9.78bn	£10.02bn	£10.26bn
Carer's Allowance	£4.50bn	£4.69bn	£4.81bn	£4.93bn	£5.05bn	£5.17bn	£5.29bn
Carer Support Payment (Scotland)	£0.31bn	£0.32bn	£0.33bn	£0.34bn	£0.35bn	£0.36bn	£0.36bn
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland)	£0.00bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn
Severe Disablement Allowance	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit	£0.51bn	£0.52bn	£0.53bn	£0.54bn	£0.56bn	£0.57bn	£0.59bn
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme	£0.61bn	£0.62bn	£0.64bn	£0.65bn	£0.67bn	£0.69bn	£0.70bn
War Widow's or Widower's Pension	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Child Benefit	£16.23bn	£16.91bn	£17.32bn	£17.73bn	£18.16bn	£18.60bn	£19.04bn
Scottish Child Payment	£0.50bn	£0.52bn	£0.53bn	£0.55bn	£0.56bn	£0.57bn	£0.58bn
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual)	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Healthy Start vouchers	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn
Maternity Allowance	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Statutory Maternity Pay	£3.32bn	£3.41bn	£3.49bn	£3.57bn	£3.66bn	£3.75bn	£3.84bn
Statutory Paternity Pay	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Statutory Sick Pay	£1.13bn	£1.16bn	£1.19bn	£1.22bn	£1.25bn	£1.28bn	£1.31bn
Sure Start Maternity Grant	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn
Bereavement Support Payment	£0.67bn	£0.69bn	£0.70bn	£0.72bn	£0.74bn	£0.76bn	£0.78bn
Tax-Free Childcare	£0.55bn	£0.56bn	£0.57bn	£0.58bn	£0.60bn	£0.61bn	£0.59bn
Extended childcare entitlement	£2.66bn	£3.14bn	£3.23bn	£3.30bn	£3.38bn	£3.47bn	£3.55bn
Universal childcare entitlement	£3.32bn	£3.59bn	£3.69bn	£3.78bn	£3.88bn	£3.99bn	£4.08bn
Targeted childcare entitlement	£0.57bn	£0.60bn	£0.62bn	£0.63bn	£0.65bn	£0.66bn	£0.67bn
Care to Learn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Childcare Grant	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Parents' Learning Allowance	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn
Adult Dependants' Grant	£0.06bn	£0.06bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn
Travel Grant	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
NHS spending	£204.68bn	£205.46bn	£206.22bn	£207.04bn	£207.96bn	£208.89bn	£209.79bn
State education spending	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn
Transport subsidy spending	£25.15bn	£25.25bn	£25.34bn	£25.44bn	£25.55bn	£25.67bn	£25.78bn
Cost-of-living support payment	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Energy Bills Rebate	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Basic income	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Disability basic income	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Other public spending budget change	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn

Caseloads: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
State Pension	11,308k	11,208k	10,906k	10,812k	10,860k	10,908k	10,955k
Pension Credit	1,491k	1,489k	1,478k	1,459k	1,459k	1,457k	1,453k
Winter Fuel Payment	7,092k	7,011k	6,601k	6,517k	6,493k	6,381k	6,254k
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland)	806k	807k	807k	805k	809k	812k	816k
Universal Credit	6,371k	6,379k	6,409k	6,420k	6,395k	6,387k	6,371k
Housing Benefit	1,254k	1,252k	1,254k	1,240k	1,245k	1,247k	1,249k
Council Tax Reduction	3,186k	3,211k	3,224k	3,245k	3,264k	3,280k	3,293k
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related)	187k	188k	188k	189k	190k	190k	191k
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based)	722k	724k	727k	730k	733k	737k	740k
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based)	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based)	67k	67k	68k	68k	68k	69k	69k
Income Support	25k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Working Tax Credit	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Child Tax Credit	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Incapacity Benefit	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Personal Independence Payment	3,581k	3,595k	3,608k	3,623k	3,639k	3,655k	3,671k
Disability Living Allowance	1,296k	1,301k	1,306k	1,311k	1,317k	1,323k	1,329k
Attendance Allowance	1,701k	1,708k	1,714k	1,721k	1,729k	1,736k	1,744k
Carer's Allowance	1,038k	1,042k	1,046k	1,050k	1,055k	1,059k	1,064k
Carer Support Payment (Scotland)	71k	72k	72k	72k	73k	73k	73k
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland)	0k	72k	72k	72k	73k	73k	73k
Severe Disablement Allowance	4k	4k	4k	4k	4k	4k	4k
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit	137k	138k	139k	139k	140k	140k	141k
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme	94k	94k	94k	95k	95k	95k	96k
War Widow's or Widower's Pension	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Child Benefit	8,136k	8,165k	8,185k	8,215k	8,249k	8,282k	8,314k
Scottish Child Payment	352k	354k	355k	356k	357k	358k	357k
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual)	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Healthy Start vouchers	200k	201k	202k	203k	204k	204k	205k
Maternity Allowance	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Statutory Maternity Pay	334k	335k	336k	338k	339k	341k	342k
Statutory Paternity Pay	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Statutory Sick Pay	182k	183k	183k	184k	185k	186k	186k
Sure Start Maternity Grant	26k	26k	26k	27k	27k	27k	27k
Bereavement Support Payment	98k	98k	99k	99k	100k	100k	101k
Tax-Free Childcare	1,017k	1,028k	1,028k	1,033k	1,034k	1,038k	1,023k
Extended childcare entitlement	665k	671k	675k	677k	682k	686k	687k
Universal childcare entitlement	986k	989k	992k	997k	1,002k	1,013k	1,015k
Targeted childcare entitlement	119k	120k	120k	121k	121k	122k	121k
Care to Learn	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Childcare Grant	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Parents' Learning Allowance	98k	99k	99k	100k	100k	100k	101k
Adult Dependants' Grant	18k	18k	12k	13k	13k	13k	13k
Travel Grant	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Cost-of-living support payment	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Energy Bills Rebate	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Basic income	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Disability basic income	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k

Government balance, each component counted once: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Government receipts, each component once	£899.38bn	£939.24bn	£976.18bn	£1,009.38bn	£1,045.66bn	£1,082.60bn	£1,123.48bn
Government spending	£536.24bn †	£550.45bn †	£556.57bn †	£563.61bn †	£572.15bn †	£581.38bn †	£590.55bn †
Government balance, each receipt once	£363.15bn †	£388.79bn †	£419.62bn †	£445.77bn †	£473.51bn †	£501.23bn †	£532.93bn †
Benefits in household_benefits but not in gov_spending	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn

Model totals: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
gov_tax	£902.51bn	£942.37bn	£979.31bn	£1,012.51bn	£1,048.79bn	£1,085.73bn	£1,126.61bn
household_tax	£496.17bn	£522.66bn	£548.45bn	£570.64bn	£592.85bn	£617.30bn	£644.01bn
pre_budget_change_household_tax	£488.34bn	£514.54bn	£540.10bn	£561.60bn	£583.57bn	£607.75bn	£634.11bn
gov_spending	£536.24bn †	£550.45bn †	£556.57bn †	£563.61bn †	£572.15bn †	£581.38bn †	£590.55bn †
household_benefits	£536.24bn †	£550.45bn †	£556.57bn †	£563.61bn †	£572.15bn †	£581.38bn †	£590.55bn †
gov_balance	£366.28bn †	£391.92bn †	£422.75bn †	£448.90bn †	£476.64bn †	£504.36bn †	£536.06bn †

Components the model counts twice: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
corporate_sdlt, counted again inside expected_sdlt	£3.13bn	£3.13bn	£3.13bn	£3.13bn	£3.13bn	£3.13bn	£3.13bn

Household income totals: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Household market income	£1,657.06bn	£1,719.25bn	£1,771.68bn	£1,821.99bn	£1,872.88bn	£1,930.99bn	£2,001.98bn
Household net income	£1,657.86bn †	£1,706.28bn †	£1,737.91bn †	£1,772.02bn †	£1,808.10bn †	£1,849.73bn †	£1,901.48bn †
Household net income (HBAI definition)	£1,466.42bn	£1,513.06bn	£1,545.11bn	£1,578.08bn	£1,612.09bn	£1,651.12bn	£1,701.58bn

Population: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
People	69,514k	69,778k	70,036k	70,316k	70,626k	70,944k	71,249k
Benefit units	35,247k	35,381k	35,512k	35,654k	35,811k	35,972k	36,127k
Households	31,167k	31,285k	31,401k	31,526k	31,665k	31,808k	31,944k

Poverty rates: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone	15.9%	15.0%	15.5%	15.6%	15.7%	15.8%	15.8%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children	23.7%	20.9%	21.6%	21.4%	21.6%	21.8%	21.7%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	13.8%	13.4%	14.0%	14.1%	14.2%	14.3%	14.3%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	13.7%	13.2%	13.3%	13.5%	13.6%	13.7%	13.7%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone	21.1%	20.6%	21.3%	21.5%	21.9%	22.2%	22.3%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children	32.1%	30.3%	30.9%	31.1%	31.7%	32.3%	32.5%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	19.6%	19.4%	20.2%	20.4%	20.8%	21.0%	21.0%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	12.8%	12.6%	12.6%	13.1%	13.4%	13.4%	13.4%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone	16.9%	16.4%	16.5%	16.6%	16.6%	16.7%	16.7%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children	25.6%	23.5%	23.2%	23.2%	23.2%	23.2%	23.2%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	14.4%	14.4%	14.6%	14.8%	14.9%	15.0%	15.0%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	15.0%	14.9%	14.4%	14.7%	14.3%	14.3%	14.6%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone	21.7%	21.3%	21.4%	21.5%	21.6%	21.9%	22.0%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children	33.0%	31.6%	31.0%	31.1%	31.3%	31.6%	32.0%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	20.0%	20.0%	20.3%	20.4%	20.6%	20.8%	20.9%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	13.7%	13.1%	12.8%	13.0%	12.7%	12.9%	13.2%

People in poverty: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone	11,056k	10,435k	10,856k	10,960k	11,091k	11,220k	11,234k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children	3,560k	3,141k	3,261k	3,253k	3,298k	3,334k	3,335k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	5,862k	5,735k	6,068k	6,164k	6,235k	6,314k	6,321k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	1,634k	1,559k	1,527k	1,543k	1,558k	1,572k	1,579k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone	14,663k	14,366k	14,907k	15,144k	15,491k	15,755k	15,874k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children	4,809k	4,556k	4,676k	4,719k	4,835k	4,939k	4,994k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	8,333k	8,326k	8,775k	8,931k	9,122k	9,275k	9,329k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	1,521k	1,484k	1,456k	1,493k	1,533k	1,541k	1,551k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone	11,780k	11,464k	11,523k	11,660k	11,708k	11,832k	11,879k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children	3,840k	3,538k	3,506k	3,524k	3,542k	3,554k	3,565k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	6,154k	6,160k	6,356k	6,464k	6,530k	6,636k	6,628k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	1,786k	1,766k	1,661k	1,673k	1,636k	1,643k	1,686k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone	15,110k	14,866k	14,956k	15,109k	15,280k	15,513k	15,696k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children	4,948k	4,756k	4,684k	4,715k	4,771k	4,840k	4,916k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	8,531k	8,560k	8,793k	8,917k	9,054k	9,187k	9,257k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	1,631k	1,551k	1,479k	1,477k	1,455k	1,486k	1,523k

Inequality: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Gini coefficient, equivalised HBAI income before housing costs	0.3074	0.3052	0.3066	0.3072	0.3078	0.3084	0.3095

Mean household net income in each side's own deciles: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household	£17,700 †	£17,996 †	£17,934 †	£17,991 †	£18,328 †	£18,506 †	£18,680 †
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household	£28,323 †	£29,102 †	£28,705 †	£28,983 †	£29,330 †	£29,734 †	£30,317 †
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household	£34,629 †	£35,807 †	£36,445 †	£37,019 †	£37,221 †	£37,811 †	£38,492 †
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household	£39,334 †	£40,803 †	£41,758 †	£42,693 †	£43,435 †	£44,025 †	£44,926 †
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household	£44,861 †	£46,156 †	£47,079 †	£47,439 †	£48,027 †	£49,181 †	£50,036 †
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household	£47,925 †	£49,329 †	£50,288 †	£51,174 †	£52,167 †	£52,953 †	£54,205 †
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household	£56,319 †	£57,568 †	£58,473 †	£59,423 †	£60,149 †	£61,621 †	£62,893 †
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household	£69,267 †	£70,356 †	£71,672 †	£72,810 †	£74,351 †	£75,797 †	£77,578 †
Decile 9: mean household_net_income per household	£79,648 †	£81,992 †	£83,192 †	£84,486 †	£86,056 †	£87,570 †	£90,645 †
Decile 10: mean household_net_income per household	£117,618 †	£120,489 †	£122,421 †	£124,552 †	£126,802 †	£129,073 †	£131,887 †

Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance): head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp	£6.21bn	£6.50bn	£6.70bn	£6.90bn	£7.11bn	£7.34bn	£7.62bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp	£3.54bn	£3.82bn	£4.05bn	£4.27bn	£4.49bn	£4.76bn	£4.96bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year	£-3.83bn	£-3.96bn	£-4.03bn	£-4.10bn	£-4.19bn	£-4.29bn	£-2.02bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child	£-2.00bn	£-1.76bn	£-1.64bn	£-1.54bn	£-1.44bn	£-1.34bn	£-1.24bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%	£-20.54bn	£-21.10bn	£-21.45bn	£-21.88bn	£-21.95bn	£-22.32bn	£-22.79bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%	£11.06bn	£11.51bn	£11.83bn	£12.14bn	£12.47bn	£12.81bn	£13.29bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp	£25.01bn	£25.68bn	£26.29bn	£26.92bn	£27.58bn	£28.26bn	£28.95bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp	£2.83bn	£3.07bn	£3.27bn	£3.47bn	£3.67bn	£3.91bn	£4.23bn
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%	£-3.04bn	£-3.17bn	£-3.24bn	£-3.32bn	£-3.37bn	£-3.42bn	£-3.47bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%	£-7.81bn	£-8.07bn	£-7.99bn	£-8.11bn	£-8.36bn	£-8.66bn	£-9.02bn

Standard reforms: change in each reform's target: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp: change in income_tax	£6.36bn	£6.65bn	£6.86bn	£7.07bn	£7.28bn	£7.52bn	£7.80bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp: change in income_tax	£3.55bn	£3.83bn	£4.06bn	£4.28bn	£4.50bn	£4.77bn	£4.97bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year: change in income_tax	£-3.96bn	£-4.10bn	£-4.19bn	£-4.26bn	£-4.36bn	£-4.47bn	£-1.77bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child: change in child_benefit	£2.34bn	£2.15bn	£2.03bn	£1.92bn	£1.82bn	£1.71bn	£1.59bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%: change in universal_credit	£20.53bn	£21.09bn	£21.44bn	£21.87bn	£21.95bn	£22.32bn	£22.78bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%: change in national_insurance	£11.33bn	£11.79bn	£12.13bn	£12.44bn	£12.78bn	£13.13bn	£13.62bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp: change in vat	£25.01bn	£25.68bn	£26.29bn	£26.92bn	£27.58bn	£28.26bn	£28.95bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax	£2.83bn	£3.07bn	£3.27bn	£3.47bn	£3.67bn	£3.91bn	£4.23bn
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%: change in universal_credit	£3.04bn	£3.17bn	£3.25bn	£3.32bn	£3.37bn	£3.43bn	£3.47bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%: change in state_pension	£10.72bn	£11.23bn	£11.37bn	£11.62bn	£12.08bn	£12.54bn	£13.07bn

[MaxGhenis]

Merged by the UK hub (Claude session 8e19f9d5) at head 8c1833520, through the merge queue with the head pinned.

• Review: @juaristi22 (19 Oct) approved at this exact head.
• CI: every check on gh pr checks passed at this head.
• Why now: Max asked (22 Oct) to clear the policyengine-uk PR backlog before the Autumn Budget on 28 October, without waiting on each other.