[MaxGhenis]

Fixes #1962. Also closes #1935 for Scotland and Wales.

Reproducer: policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/gov/local_authorities/council_tax_reduction/council_tax_reduction_devolved_working_age.yaml; policyengine_uk/tests/test_council_tax_reduction_devolved_working_age_properties.py::test_devolved_working_age_award_properties

axiom: SSI 2021/249 regs 13(11), 35, 42, 49(6), 50(3), 51(9), 57(1)(p), Sch 1 para 6(1), Sch 3 para 4(3); SSI 2012/303 reg 38; WSI 2013/3029 Sch 6 paras 3, 9, 15(3), 25, Sch 7 paras 1-4 and 14, Sch 9 para 4, Sch 9 and 10 para 8 | TheAxiomFoundation/rulespec-uk#393 queued (the signed encoder is not yet available for rulespec-uk; scope extended in the issue's comments)

What was wrong

Working-age households in Scotland and Wales ran through the pension-age means test, built on Housing Benefit parameters. On main (76cfc9e) in 2026, on the certified Enhanced FRS 1.58.1, CTR for working-age households was:

• Scotland: £0.058bn (0.059m households), against £0.097bn (0.306m) reported in the survey;
• Wales: £0.004bn (0.011m), against £0.061bn (0.087m) reported.

Four legal defects caused it:

1. Universal Credit. The whole UC award, including the housing costs element, counted as income against a Housing Benefit personal allowance with no children in it. The law is different in each country:
   • Wales (WSI 2013/3029 Sch 6 paras 3 and 9) compares the Secretary of State's UC income plus the award with the UC maximum amount. The housing and child elements cancel, and a UC claimant with no earnings gets the maximum reduction.
   • Scotland (SSI 2021/249 regs 35, 42, 57(1)(p) and (2)(d)) keeps its own applicable amount. It counts as income only the UC child element (with disabled-child additions) plus the childcare costs element, capped at the award. Earnings are measured on the UC basis with the CTR earnings disregards and no work allowance.
2. No passport. Claimants on Income Support, income-based JSA or income-related ESA were means-tested. The law gives them the maximum reduction: SSI 2021/249 reg 13(11); WSI 2013/3029 Sch 9 para 8 and Sch 10 para 8.
3. Applicable amounts.
   • There were no child amounts: Scotland's child premium is £109.85 per child (25% above Housing Benefit since 2017), Wales's child amount £87.88.
   • There was no family premium: £20.22 in Wales, and in Scotland until it closed to new claims on 1 May 2016.
   • There was no disabled child premium or child enhanced disability premium.
   • Welsh personal allowances were Housing Benefit's (£95.55 / £75.65 / £150.15) instead of Wales's own (£101.85 / £80.60 / £159.85).
   • The adult premiums were the projected DWP amounts, not the devolved ones, which differ in most years (2025-26 disability premium: £47.48 projected against £43.20 in law).
   • The carer premium was paid once for a couple even when both qualify.
4. Income.
   • Child Benefit was counted; both countries disregard it.
   • There were no earnings disregards (£5, £10, £20 or £25, plus £17.10), no childcare deduction and no tariff income from capital.
   • Actual interest, dividends and rent were counted, where the law treats them as capital.

What this changes

simulated_council_tax_reduction_benunit sends a claim down a new working-age route when the household is in Scotland or Wales and council_tax_reduction_pensioner (main's per-claim scheme flag) is false.

Who is assessed follows main's applicant identity (#2078) through working_age/_applicant.py:

• The applicant and partner are is_council_tax_reduction_applicant_or_partner.
• Where the household head applies alone (council_tax_reduction_head_applies_alone), she is a single person. The benefit unit's partner, children, UC, income-related benefits and tax credits are its claimant's, not hers, and her premium conditions are her own, as in council_tax_reduction_premiums.
• Children and lone parents follow each scheme's own young person (Use the Universal Credit young person in Scotland's working-age Council Tax Reduction #2288): is_child_or_young_person_for_council_tax_reduction and is_council_tax_reduction_lone_parent. That is the Universal Credit one in Scotland's working-age scheme from 2022-23, and Child Benefit's in Wales.

The new variables are in council_tax_reduction/working_age/:

Variable	Rule
council_tax_reduction_devolved_working_age	Scotland or Wales, not a CTR pensioner. Mixed-age UC couples take this route (WSI 2013/3029 reg 3; SSI 2021/249 reg 3).
council_tax_reduction_working_age_applicable_amount	Wales with UC: uc_maximum_amount. Otherwise: personal allowance, child amounts, and the devolved adult premiums (council_tax_reduction_working_age_adult_premiums).
council_tax_reduction_working_age_personal_allowance	Couple / lone parent / single 25+ / single under 25. The higher single rate also applies on main-phase ESA and, in Scotland, on UC with LCW.
council_tax_reduction_working_age_child_amounts	Per-child amount, family premium, disabled child premium, child enhanced disability premium.
council_tax_reduction_working_age_adult_premiums, _carers	Disability, severe disability, enhanced disability premiums at the devolved amounts (who qualifies follows the legacy premium variables, with CTR's own severe disability premium family test, council_tax_reduction_severe_disability_premium), and a carer premium for each applicant or partner entitled to Carer's Allowance or Carer Support Payment, including an entitlement an overlapping benefit reduces to nil (WSI 2013/3029 Sch 7 para 14(1); SSI 2021/249 Sch 1 para 6(1)(a)-(b)). Scotland also counts an award of UC that includes the carer element (para 6(1)(c)), as one carer when no one in the family is entitled to a carer benefit.
council_tax_reduction_working_age_applicable_income	Passported: 0. Wales with UC: UC earnings before the work allowance + UC unearned income + the award. Otherwise: net earnings − disregards − childcare + unearned income + tariff income (+ relevant UC payments in Scotland).
council_tax_reduction_working_age_person_earned_income, _earned_income, _employed_earned_income	Per applicant or partner. Wales with UC: the UC model's own earned income before the work allowance, after the minimum income floor (uc_individual_earned_income): the Secretary of State's figure (Sch 6 para 9). Scotland with UC: the UC measure without the floor (uc_individual_earned_income_before_mif), since SSI 2021/249 regs 49 and 51(2) have none, less miscellaneous income (net of its tax share), which is unearned here. It includes SSP/SMP/SPP and deducts only the tax and NI paid in respect of the employment or trade. Without UC: pay and SSP/SMP/SPP less the income tax and primary Class 1 on the employment (reg 50(3)(a); WSI 2013/3029 Sch 6 para 15(3)(a)). The tax is the UC model's split, earnings as the lowest slice and pay before trade (uc_income_tax_on_earnings less uc_income_tax_on_trade), shared pro rata with miscellaneous income, which is unearned; primary Class 1 comes off pay in full. Self-employed profit takes the prescribed notional deductions, not the tax paid (SSI 2012/303 reg 38 via SSI 2021/249 reg 51(9); WSI 2013/3029 Sch 6 para 25): basic-rate tax on the profit less the personal allowance (in Wales also the blind person's allowance), Class 4 at the main rate between the profits limits, and Class 2 before April 2024. Half of pension contributions comes off. Never Class 3, tax on pensions or tax on dividends. Employed earnings feed Scotland's £17.10 test.
council_tax_reduction_working_age_unearned_income_tax	Income tax on the counted taxable unearned income. earned_income_tax (non-savings tax other than on property income) less the tax on earnings is the tax on pensions and taxable benefits, shared pro rata with those the schemes do not count (the Scottish Carer Supplement). Wales without UC disregards it (Sch 9 para 4); Scotland counts unearned income gross (reg 57).
council_tax_reduction_working_age_earnings_disregard	£25 lone parent; else £20 with a disability premium, or in Scotland for a UC applicant with LCW or LCWRA where the applicant or partner is under pensionable age and one of them (not necessarily the same one) is in employment (Sch 3 para 4(3)); else, for a carer, £20 of the carers' own earnings plus up to £10 of a non-carer partner's (paras 6-7; carers identified by a carer benefit in payment); else £10 couple, £5 single. Plus £17.10 on the work conditions (not with UC): a couple's disabled member must be the one in work, and in Scotland from April 2022 only employed earnings qualify. Never more than earnings.
council_tax_reduction_working_age_unearned_income	Scotland's closed list in reg 57(1); in Wales, gross income other than earnings less the Sch 9 disregards (Sch 6 para 17). The model counts pensions, contributory ESA and JSA, carer's allowance, the Carer Support Payment component before the overlapping-benefit reduction (as the pension-age route counts it; not the Scottish Carer Supplement), MA, IIB, IB, SDA, Part 5 miscellaneous income and tax credits.
council_tax_reduction_relevant_universal_credit_payments	Scotland: min(child element + disabled-child additions + childcare element, award).
council_tax_reduction_working_age_childcare_deduction	Legacy: charges up to £175 / £300 a week when the lone parent, or both of a couple, work 16 hours or more, taken off earnings after the disregards. Scotland with UC: childcare element ÷ 0.85, up to £290 / £497, taken off income.
council_tax_reduction_working_age_capital, _tariff_income	Wales with UC: UC capital. Wales passported: 0. Otherwise household savings. £1 a week per £250 or part above £6,000.
council_tax_reduction_working_age_passported, _has_universal_credit, _universal_credit_award	IS / JSA(IB) / ESA(IR) without UC (council_tax_reduction_relevant_income_based_benefit); UC entitlement, not a household head's who applies alone; the award after the benefit cap and before deductions from payment.

The new parameters are under gov.local_authorities.{scotland,wales}.council_tax_reduction.working_age. Every uprated amount has its full history from 2013-14 to 2026-27, and each change cites the amending instrument and provision. The history was compiled from legislation.gov.uk and chain-checked: each year's "for £X" equals the previous year's value. Welsh 2013-14 values, including the fixed disregards, tariff income and childcare caps (from 1 April 2013), come from the revoked WSI 2012/3144, which then applied.

Pension-age CTR, the English schemes and the Housing Benefit parameters are unchanged. Outside the new working_age/ folders, the model code touched is the Scotland/Wales hook in simulated_council_tax_reduction_benunit.py, one docstring in council_tax_reduction_pensioner.py, and the CTR notes in programs.yaml.

council_tax_reduction_pensioner.py is main's file with one documentation sentence changed: Welsh and Scottish claims that fail the test now take the working-age rules.

Composition with main

The PR is based on main; it was last merged at 76cfc9e (2026-10-20).

• Means-test the Council Tax Reduction applicant and partner, not the benefit unit's claimant #2078 (applicant and partner) and the per-claim council_tax_reduction_pensioner. These replace council_tax_reduction_claim_pensioner, which main removed. The route keys on the new flag, and every mask reads the applicant identity (above).
  • Means-test the Council Tax Reduction applicant and partner, not the benefit unit's claimant #2078's differential property (test_head_applying_alone_matches_her_own_benefit_unit) now also compares the working-age route's scheme flag, income, applicable amount, passport and UC flag.
  • The Scottish working-age head case from Means-test the Council Tax Reduction applicant and partner, not the benefit unit's claimant #2078's review is a YAML case: a 40-year-old head with a £100,000 pension and young parents in her benefit unit gets no reduction.
• Use the Universal Credit young person in Scotland's working-age Council Tax Reduction #2288 (Scotland's own young person). The five reads it flagged now use the scheme-aware variables.
• 2025-26 legacy carer premium and HB personal allowance are extrapolated, not statutory #2110 (statutory 2025-26 amounts). main's Carer Support Payment header and 2025 case are kept.
• UC statutory pay. main's UC now counts SSP, SMP and SPP itself (UC Regs 2013 reg 55(4)), so the Scottish UC route no longer adds them. The Welsh UC route follows UC as before.
• Give sharers, boarders and lodgers their own rent, tenure and LHA category #2006 joint liability, Disregard guarantee credit recipients' income and capital in pensioner council tax reduction #1909 capital, Count Carer's Allowance and Carer Support Payment as Pension Credit income #1952 CSP. The liability keeps council_tax_reduction_joint_liability_share. The pension-age route keeps council_tax_reduction_assessable_capital. The working-age route counts carer_support_payment_pre_overlap, like main's CTR income, until it is settled which amount CTR counts.
• Treat income derived from capital as capital in the legacy means tests #1995 (capital, open). It adds council_tax_reduction_assessable_capital with property capital and a UC route, and council_tax_reduction_universal_credit_award. Whichever of Treat income derived from capital as capital in the legacy means tests #1995 and this PR lands second points council_tax_reduction_working_age_capital, the tariff and the passport at those two (UK hub note, 20 October).
• main tests that pinned Scottish and Welsh working-age awards under the shared formula are re-derived under the devolved rules, each with its derivation in the YAML:
  • claimant_family_scheme.yaml: four shared-rent cases. The working-age family's income input moves to the working-age variable. Wales's own £101.85 allowance gives £359.24, not £293.72; Scotland's amount equals HB's, so its award is unchanged.
  • applicant_or_partner.yaml: two Scottish couples get the couple's £10 earnings disregard, so £1,465.56, not £1,361.56.
  • severe_disability_premium_young_person.yaml: where the 19-year-old is a UC qualifying young person, the Scottish applicant is a lone parent with a £109.85 child premium. The applicable amount is £15,155.40, above the £12,570 income, so the full £2,000.
  • The Welsh working-age earner in council_tax_reduction_pension_credit.yaml gets £1,111.24. The capped Welsh mixed-age UC couple in council_tax_reduction_pensioner.yaml gets the maximum reduction (WSI 2013/3029 Sch 6 paras 3 and 9). main's Carer Support Payment cases get the devolved amounts: the Welsh carer £1,260.92, the 2025 Scottish carer £1,173.56.
• Evaluate claims_all_entitled_benefits per benefit unit #1831 / d046 (take-up) is untouched. In survey runs, CTR claiming is still reported receipt.

Impact (certified Enhanced FRS 2024-25 1.58.1, real microsimulation runs)

At aed6724. The round-4 fixes in 779f5dc move the working-age route: Class 1 now comes off pay in full, Part 5 miscellaneous income counts as unearned income, and partners caring for the same person get one premium. The branch side is being rerun at 779f5dc and will replace the table below. The Aggregate impact check reruns on each push.

CTR in £bn (recipient households, millions). Base = main 76cfc9e; this PR = aed6724. certified Enhanced FRS 2024-25 (release 1.58.1), real microsimulation runs. A household's group follows its CTR claimant benefit unit's scheme (council_tax_reduction_pensioner).

Group	2025 base → PR	2026 base → PR	2027 base → PR	2029 base → PR
Scotland, working age	0.056 (0.059) → 0.149 (0.190)	0.058 (0.059) → 0.155 (0.191)	0.061 (0.058) → 0.161 (0.192)	0.066 (0.058) → 0.176 (0.193)
Wales, working age	0.002 (0.008) → 0.016 (0.017)	0.004 (0.011) → 0.017 (0.017)	0.005 (0.011) → 0.018 (0.017)	0.007 (0.011) → 0.022 (0.018)
Scotland, pension age	0.103 (0.134) → 0.103 (0.134)	0.107 (0.135) → 0.107 (0.135)	0.111 (0.135) → 0.111 (0.135)	0.121 (0.136) → 0.121 (0.136)
Wales, pension age	0.008 (0.009) → 0.008 (0.009)	0.009 (0.009) → 0.009 (0.009)	0.010 (0.010) → 0.010 (0.010)	0.012 (0.010) → 0.012 (0.010)
England, pension age	0.468 (0.452) → 0.468 (0.452)	0.495 (0.455) → 0.495 (0.455)	0.524 (0.455) → 0.524 (0.455)	0.585 (0.456) → 0.585 (0.456)
England, working age (reported)	1.349 (2.514) → 1.349 (2.514)	1.358 (2.534) → 1.358 (2.534)	1.366 (2.548) → 1.366 (2.548)	1.387 (2.582) → 1.387 (2.582)
Northern Ireland	0.000 (0.001) → 0.000 (0.001)	0.000 (0.001) → 0.000 (0.001)	0.000 (0.001) → 0.000 (0.001)	0.000 (0.001) → 0.000 (0.001)
UK total CTR	1.987 (3.178) → 2.093 (3.318)	2.032 (3.204) → 2.141 (3.342)	2.076 (3.217) → 2.190 (3.357)	2.177 (3.255) → 2.302 (3.396)

• Change in CTR by year:

  • 2025: £+0.106bn; 0.172m households gain (mean £614 a year); fewer than 10 survey records lose (figures suppressed); net income change £+0.106bn
  • 2026: £+0.110bn; 0.169m households gain (mean £649 a year); fewer than 10 survey records lose (figures suppressed); net income change £+0.110bn
  • 2027: £+0.114bn; 0.170m households gain (mean £674 a year); fewer than 10 survey records lose (figures suppressed); net income change £+0.114bn
  • 2029: £+0.125bn; 0.171m households gain (mean £731 a year); fewer than 10 survey records lose (figures suppressed); net income change £+0.125bn

• Household net income rises by the same amount as CTR.

• Pension-age CTR is unchanged. It is identical to main in every year run (2025, 2026, 2027 and 2029), in England, Scotland and Wales, and so are English working-age CTR and Northern Ireland. That holds household by household as well as in total: no pension-age benefit unit's simulated reduction changes in 2026 or 2029.

• Losers. Fewer than 10 survey records lose in each year, all Scottish working-age claimants without UC and without earnings. Their pensions or taxable benefits bear income tax. SSI 2021/249 reg 57 counts unearned income gross, whereas the shared formula deducted all income tax. The figures are suppressed under aggregate_impact/privacy.py's small-cell rule.

• Earlier years. The base Enhanced FRS has no weights before 2024. Three YAML cases check the 2015, 2016 and 2018 amounts instead.

• The Aggregate impact check agrees. Base 60b09a4 is the test merge's first parent. CTR spending is +£105.8m in 2025-26, +£109.7m in 2026-27 and +£114.3m in 2027-28, matching the runs above, with 138-143k more recipients each year.

• Flagged pensioner poverty move. Its one flagged pensioner move is relative poverty before housing costs, +0.22pp in 2027-28. No pension-age benefit unit's reduction changes, and households that mix a pension-age and a gaining working-age family only gain income. So the move comes through the relative poverty line, which rises with median income, not through any pensioner's income falling.

• Scripts: impact_v2.py and impact_table.py. The pension grouping maps benefit units to households through their members.

Why the gap to reported and official figures remains (data, not law)

Filed as PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk-data#496 and #497; the fix, policyengine-uk-data#499, lands with a later data release.

• council_tax is the FRS bill net of CTR. DWP defines the FRS 2024-25 CTANNUAL as "Annual CT amount after discounts/reduction", derived from CTREB and CTREBAMT. The model treats it as the gross liability, so each reported recipient's liability is already reduced by its own CTR.
  • In release 1.58.1, 22.3% of Welsh FRS-original reported recipients (all ages, base-year weights) have a £0 bill. Scotland's bill includes water charges, so none are £0 there.
  • A diagnostic copy of 1.58.1 (not a release) adds reported CTR back to FRS-original rows. With this PR on that copy, 2026 CTR is:
    • Scotland working-age: £0.200bn (0.197m households);
    • Wales working-age: £0.045bn (0.039m).
  • On the same copy, main gives £0.071bn and £0.010bn.
• SPI-synthetic rows carry imputed "reported" CTR from the stage-2 QRF (Add UC metadata #497).
• Take-up. Only survey reporters claim CTR in survey runs (Evaluate claims_all_entitled_benefits per benefit unit #1831, d046). Wales has 0.049m FRS-original working-age reporters, against 157k working-age CTR households in March 2026.

Group, 2026	This PR, release 1.58.1	This PR, gross-bill diagnostic copy	Survey reported	Official
Scotland, working age	£0.155bn (0.191m)	£0.200bn (0.197m)	£0.097bn (0.306m)	about £0.276bn and 306,740 recipients (March 2026)¹
Wales, working age	£0.017bn (0.017m)	£0.045bn (0.039m)	£0.061bn (0.087m)	157,021 households (March 2026); all ages £347.4m (2025-26), £336.0m budgeted (2026-27)²
England, pension age	£0.495bn (0.455m)	£0.782bn (0.610m)	£0.562bn (0.999m)	£1.816bn forgone (2025-26), 1,349,524 claimants (31 March 2026)³

1. Council Tax Reduction in Scotland, 2025-26 (gov.scot):
   • £425.1m provisional income forgone in 2025-26; 458,950 recipients in March 2026.
   • Working-age recipients = the total less pension-age recipients (sheet 2.6).
   • £0.276bn is the under-65 share of the £425.1m, derived from the average weekly awards by age (sheet 3.3). No split by age is published.
2. Welsh Government, Council Tax Reduction Scheme annual report 2025 to 2026; StatsWales revenue budget (CTRS) 2026-27.
3. MHCLG Council Taxbase 2025, CT Support sheet; Local Council Tax Support claimants live table, Q1 2026-27.

Not modelled (documented in the variables)

• Components and premium conditions. The ESA work-related activity and support components are not modelled, and the disability premium's LCW/LCWRA exclusion is not applied. Who qualifies for the adult premiums follows the model's legacy premium variables (Give pension-age HB and CTR the severe disability premium Pension Credit uses #1938 and Give the legacy severe disability premium its statutory conditions (stacked on #1896) #1946 are revising their conditions); the amounts are the devolved ones.
• Tax credits. The childcare deduction's extension to earnings plus WTC/CTC, and the up-to-£17.10 WTC disregard, are not modelled; tax credits ended in April 2025.
• Mid-year changes. Amounts that change mid-year (for example the Scottish UC childcare caps from 28 June 2023) apply from the next model year, because the model samples one value a year.
• Scottish fixed amounts before SSI 2021/249. Scotland's disregards, tariff income, childcare caps and hours parameters cite SSI 2021/249 from 2013; the predecessor SSI 2012/303 is not separately cited, and Scotland's April-September 2013 tariff-income threshold for applicants aged 60 or over is not modelled. (Wales's fixed amounts cite WSI 2012/3144 for 2013-14.)
• Tax on pay without UC. The law deducts the tax actually deducted from pay. The model uses the UC model's split, which takes earnings as the lowest slice of non-savings income and pay before trade. It does not see a PAYE code that collects tax on other income through the pay.
• Notional self-employed tax. The personal allowance taper and the married couple's and marriage allowances are not applied.
• Welsh unearned income. Wales counts all gross income other than earnings less the Sch 9 disregards. The model counts the sources listed above; others it holds, such as maintenance received, are not counted.
• Scottish carer premium with no carer benefit in payment. The carer earnings disregard identifies carers by a carer benefit in payment (Sch 3 para 6(1)(a)). Where a Scottish family has the carer premium but no one receives Carer's Allowance or Carer Support Payment (an award of UC with the carer element, or a carer benefit overlapped to nil), the £20 is approximated against the family's earnings. That can exceed Sch 3 para 7's £10 limit on a non-carer partner's earnings.
• Transitional family premium. Scotland's is not modelled, because the model cannot see an unbroken claim since May 2016.
• Scotland-only routes. The band E-H alternative maximum (reg 14) and the second adult rebate are not modelled.
• Scotland before April 2022. Its UC rules under SSI 2012/303 are approximated with the 2021 scheme's structure. The UC childcare caps before 2022 take the 2022 value (£175 / £300), the same as the non-UC caps.
• Exclusions. Students and persons from abroad are not excluded.
• Non-dependant deductions use main's national CTR deductions (National council tax reduction: non-dependant deductions use Housing Benefit amounts and skip exemptions; pensioner gate ignores benefit exclusions #1934; Apply Housing Benefit and national Council Tax Reduction non-dependant deductions as legislated #2007 open).
• Capital is household savings, except UC capital on the Welsh UC route (Pensioners without Pension Credit are tested on household savings only for the council tax reduction capital limit #1936). Treat income derived from capital as capital in the legacy means tests #1995 adds property capital; see above.

Tests

• YAML. council_tax_reduction_devolved_working_age.yaml has 41 cases. Expected values are worked by hand from the law's amounts:

  • Wales UC with no earnings: full award;
  • Wales UC excess income = 0.45 × earnings with no work allowance;
  • the Wales UC award is the same at double the rent;
  • a Welsh couple with a child and no UC (Sch 7 amounts, disregards, Child Benefit ignored);
  • a Scottish UC lone parent counting only the child element;
  • a Scottish UC single earner (the £5 disregard, and no UC counted);
  • the Scottish under-25 allowance;
  • the ESA passport in both countries;
  • Scotland's capital limit for a passported claimant;
  • tariff income;
  • a mixed-age UC couple in Wales on the working-age route;
  • 2015-16, 2016-17 and 2018-19 amounts;
  • regressions for the first review round: the carer disregard, the £17.10 conditions, Welsh tax on unearned income, the CSP component, a carer premium per partner, SMP on the Scottish UC route, the 2025 Scottish disability premium;
  • regressions for the second review round: tax on a pension or on dividends never comes off wages (three Welsh cases, one Scottish), a Welsh carer premium on entitlement when contributory ESA overlaps Carer's Allowance to nil, no Scottish carer premium from a potential UC carer element, the Scottish UC LCWRA £20 disregard, and voluntary Class 3 NI;
  • regressions for the third review round: property income does not dilute the Welsh pension-tax disregard; the Scottish LCWRA £20 where the younger partner has LCWRA and the older one works; the Welsh notional self-employed tax (pay 12,570 and profit 5,000 give earnings 17,570, not 16,570); the Scottish self-employed lone parent at the basic rate (£1,322.52, not the starter-rate £1,317.66);
  • regressions for the fourth review round:
    • Welsh pay and miscellaneous income (Class 1 off pay in full; the miscellaneous income counted as unearned, with its tax share disregarded);
    • Scottish Part 5 miscellaneous income as unearned income (reg 57(1)(o));
    • one carer premium for partners caring for the same person, with a different-person control.
  • Means-test the Council Tax Reduction applicant and partner, not the benefit unit's claimant #2078: a Scottish working-age head who applies alone has her own pension counted; a 22-year-old head who applies alone keeps the under-25 allowance although the young couple in her benefit unit are on income-related ESA.

• Property and differential tests. test_council_tax_reduction_devolved_working_age_properties.py runs many households in one simulation:

  • Hypothesis: 0 ≤ award ≤ liability; the Wales UC award does not depend on rent where both variants have a housing costs element (uncapped awards); the UC award never rises with earnings; IS/JSA/ESA passported claimants get the full liability.
  • Hypothesis found that the rent property fails when one variant has no housing costs element. Gaining one lowers the UC work allowance (UC Regs 2013 reg 22), so the award changes by more than the element. That is the law, so the property now requires the element in both variants, and test_welsh_universal_credit_rent_cancels_only_given_housing_costs executes the boundary.
  • Means-test the Council Tax Reduction applicant and partner, not the benefit unit's claimant #2078's differential (test_head_applying_alone_matches_her_own_benefit_unit) also compares the working-age route's scheme flag, income, applicable amount, passport and UC flag.
  • Differential: on the Welsh UC route, CTR earnings equal the UC model's uc_individual_earned_income, income equals earnings + uc_unearned_income + the award, and the applicable amount equals uc_maximum_amount, with and without SMP.
  • A targeted partial Welsh UC award (£246.36) that is the same at £6,000 and £13,000 rent.
  • Wales's fixed amounts start on 1 April 2013 with the WSI 2012/3144 values.

• Mutation checks, each run against these tests:

  • Removing the Welsh UC income route fails the differential test and the targeted partial-award test. The 20 derandomised Hypothesis examples alone do not catch it, which is why the targeted case was added.
  • Removing the passport fails the passport property.
  • Reverting each second-round fix fails its regression: all tax off wages (4 cases fail), Class 3 off wages, the carer premium on receipt, the potential UC carer element, dropping the LCWRA limb, and adding statutory pay to Welsh UC earnings (the differential test fails).
  • At aed6724, each of these fails at least one YAML case:
    • R3-1, sharing the pension-tax disregard with property income;
    • R3-2, requiring the same person to be under pensionable age and in work;
    • R3-3, deducting the tax actually paid on a profit (2 cases);
    • reading the benefit unit's claimant and partner instead of the applicant identity (Means-test the Council Tax Reduction applicant and partner, not the benefit unit's claimant #2078);
    • reading the Child Benefit young person in Scotland's working-age scheme (Use the Universal Credit young person in Scotland's working-age Council Tax Reduction #2288; 2 cases);
    • reading the benefit unit's esa_income for the higher single allowance;
    • at 779f5dc: sharing Class 1 with miscellaneous income (R4-1); dropping the same-person carer cap (R4-2); leaving miscellaneous income uncounted (R4-3; 2 cases).

• Outsider income. test_means_test_income_properties.py now also checks that the new working-age income never counts income from people outside the family.

• Suites. Local runs:

  • the CTR YAML directory, 272 cases at fae2f38, and the devolved file, 37 of 37 at 3667413;
  • test_council_tax_reduction_applicant_properties.py and test_means_test_income_properties.py, which pass at fae2f38;
  • the devolved property file, which passes at 3667413.

  CI runs the full suite.

Invariants

• 0 ≤ award ≤ liability.
• The award is non-increasing in earnings on the UC route.
• A Welsh UC award is independent of the size of the housing costs element when there is one and no benefit cap.
• A passported claimant gets the full liability less non-dependant deductions.
• On the Welsh UC route, CTR earnings equal the UC model's earned income, so CTR and UC never disagree on earnings.
• Pension-age CTR is identical to main's in every year run, benefit unit by benefit unit.

Effect on pensioner CTR (uk-triple-lock)

None. Pension-age CTR in England, Scotland and Wales is identical to main (76cfc9e) in every year run (2025, 2026, 2027 and 2029), in total and benefit unit by benefit unit, so uk-triple-lock's pensioner offsets are unaffected.

The one legal change on the pension side is that a mixed-age couple on UC in Scotland or Wales takes the working-age route, keyed on main's per-claim council_tax_reduction_pensioner (WSI 2013/3029 reg 3; SSI 2021/249 reg 3). The pension-age totals above are unchanged with it.

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

[MaxGhenis]

Coordination note from #1992 (Scottish CTR counts Carer Support Payment, stacked on #1952).

council_tax_reduction_working_age_unearned_income here subtracts carer_support_payment × supplement / (rate + supplement). That assumes carer_support_payment includes the Scottish Carer Supplement, which is true on main today. #1952 makes carer_support_payment the CSP component only (csp.rate × 52) and adds a separate scottish_carer_supplement.

Once #1952 is in, this subtraction would remove £535.88 a year of genuine CSP in 2026 (4,495.40 × 11.70 / 98.15), understating income for every Scottish working-age carer. Whichever of #1952 and this PR merges second should drop the subtraction and count carer_support_payment as it stands.

The carers overlapping-benefits work (#1953) will also make carer_support_payment the amount payable after CSP Regs reg 16(2). SSI 2021/249 reg 57(1)(b) counts benefits "subject to any adjustment … under section 73 of the Social Security Administration Act 1992"; whether that covers a reg 16(2) reduction is being checked in #1992.

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

[MaxGhenis]

Composition note: #2015 (stacked on #2009 → #2006) adds council_tax_reduction_pensioner (BenUnit) with the same name, entity and meaning as this PR, but only the age test, and deletes council_tax_reduction_household_has_pensioner. Every CTR scheme now reads the per-family flag: national, the four _legacy councils, Oxford and council_tax_reduction_scheme_supported. Whichever lands second: keep this PR's formula for council_tax_reduction_pensioner.py (add/add), delete council_tax_reduction_household_has_pensioner.py (modify/delete), and change any remaining benunit.household("council_tax_reduction_household_has_pensioner", period) to benunit("council_tax_reduction_pensioner", period).

[MaxGhenis]

Composition note from #2078 (stacked on #2009), which makes the CTR means test assess the applicant and partner rather than the benefit unit's claimant and partner.

#2078 adds is_council_tax_reduction_applicant_or_partner (Person): the benefit unit's claimant and partner where the liable person is one of them, and the household head alone where the head is liable but is not the benefit unit's claimant or partner (council_tax_reduction_head_applies_alone; for example, a grandmother head sharing a benefit unit with a young couple who are its claimant and partner).

council_tax_reduction_pensioner here reads the generic claimant identity. Whichever of the two PRs lands second should make it read is_council_tax_reduction_applicant_or_partner. Otherwise the 80-year-old grandmother above, whose benefit unit's claimant and partner are 17, is not a pensioner and goes on a working-age scheme. SI 2012/2885 reg 3(1)(a)(i): "he has attained the qualifying age for state pension credit", where "he" is the applicant. #2078 already does this for council_tax_reduction_household_has_pensioner; its YAML case "A pensioner who is not the applicant or partner does not make a young couple's claim a pensioner's" pins it.

[MaxGhenis]

Correction to my earlier note, from #2078's review r1. A pensioner-flag swap is not enough for #1966, because it adds its own working-age assessment.

#2078 (now stacked on #2015) makes the CTR means test assess the applicant and partner (is_council_tax_reduction_applicant_or_partner), not the benefit unit's claimant and partner. Where the household head is liable but is not the benefit unit's claimant or partner (council_tax_reduction_head_applies_alone; for example a grandmother sharing a benefit unit with a young couple), the head applies alone: a single person, with the benefit unit's awards and children belonging to the couple.

#1966's working-age assessment has its own person masks and family tests. Whichever of #1966 and #2078 lands second must move all of them onto the applicant identity:

• unearned income (council_tax_reduction_working_age_unearned_income) and earned income;
• family status and children;
• premiums;
• the passport;
• the Universal Credit route.

Then run #2078's differential property (test_head_applying_alone_matches_her_own_benefit_unit) on the composed tree, plus one case: Scotland 2026, a 40-year-old head with a £100,000 private pension, sharing a benefit unit with two 17-year-old parents and their baby, £1,800 council tax. SSI 2021/249 reg 36 counts her pension, so she gets no reduction. With only the pensioner swap, #1966's reader would leave it out and pay £1,800.

[MaxGhenis]

Status, paused by Fleet ops (overnight session cap): head a5e5a73 is based on main, MERGEABLE, CI running. CTR YAML 129 passed; property tests pass.

Pending:

• Review. Hard-tier review, subfleet run 20261003-221336-ctr1966-review-r2. Output goes to ~/reviews/uk-ctr-shortfall-2026-09-30/out/review_r2_a5e5a73.md.
• Impact. The rerun against main 7fee075 is impact/branch_a5e5a73.json beside impact/base_main_2efc8d8.json.

Next: read the review and fix anything it finds, update the PR's impact table, mark ready, and merge on gates or hand off to the UK hub.

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

[MaxGhenis]

A note from #2288, which gives Scotland's working-age Council Tax Reduction scheme its own "young person" (SSI 2021/249 reg. 6(1): the Universal Credit qualifying young person, UC Regs 2013 reg. 5) and leaves England, Wales and Scotland's pension-age scheme on the Child Benefit one.

When this PR is rebased after #2288 lands, five reads in the new working-age variables use the legacy flags, which follow the Child Benefit definition:

File (at this PR's head)	Line	Reads
working_age/council_tax_reduction_working_age_child_amounts.py	44	is_child_or_young_person_for_legacy_benefits
working_age/council_tax_reduction_working_age_childcare_deduction.py	47	is_child_or_young_person_for_legacy_benefits
working_age/council_tax_reduction_working_age_earnings_disregard.py	66	is_lone_parent
working_age/council_tax_reduction_working_age_earnings_disregard.py	153	is_child_or_young_person_for_legacy_benefits
working_age/council_tax_reduction_working_age_personal_allowance.py	38	is_lone_parent

For Scotland these should read is_child_or_young_person_for_council_tax_reduction and is_council_tax_reduction_lone_parent from #2288. Those already choose the definition by scheme (Universal Credit for Scottish working-age families from 2022-23, Child Benefit everywhere else), so Wales is unaffected by switching to them. The two definitions differ for a 19-year-old on a course begun before 19 who is past the 1 September after their 19th birthday: a Child Benefit young person until 20, not a Universal Credit one.

#2288 also edits council_tax_reduction_applicable_amount (lines 25 to 27 here) and the income mask in council_tax_reduction_applicable_income (line 43 here), so those two files will conflict. The severe disability premium has the same issue through a shared helper: #2295.

[MaxGhenis]

UK hub, coordination with #1995 (income derived from capital in the legacy means tests; owner session local_4c20f06a; head 3727eb8).

#1995 adds council_tax_reduction_assessable_capital (property at 90% less secured debt, the UC award route, and passported-applicant capital disregards by scheme) and council_tax_reduction_universal_credit_award (paid, or claimed and entitled before the cap and deductions; not the applicant's when the head applies alone).

When this PR's working-age route (council_tax_reduction_working_age_capital, tariff, passport) is next rebased, it should reuse those two variables. Otherwise the working-age route would drop property capital again. Whichever of #1966 and #1995 lands second does the substitution.

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

[github-actions]

Aggregate impact on certified data: pass

Base 69903500ea against head 4fa309d415, both on enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5 (policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1, sha256 056e80fd8e91), fiscal years 2025-26 to 2031-32. Each year is a full microsimulation run on each side.

Checks: 0 broken by this change, 1 failing on both sides, 0 fixed. Moves flagged for review: 27 (thresholds in report_spec.yaml; a flag does not fail the job).

Workflow run and full report

Notes

• In the years a figure from fewer than 10 records is suppressed (spending.disabled_students_allowance), every total containing it, and the decile incomes, are rebuilt from their other components, so no published total includes it. Those totals are marked †. A change is withheld where the two sides leave out different figures and can't be lined up.

Moves flagged for review

Measure	Year	Base	Head	Change
Council Tax Reduction	2025-26	3,185k	3,325k	+140.3k
Council Tax Reduction	2027-28	3,223k	3,363k	+140.2k
Council Tax Reduction	2028-29	3,244k	3,385k	+140.8k
Council Tax Reduction	2031-32	3,293k	3,436k	+142.8k
Council Tax Reduction	2029-30	3,262k	3,403k	+141.4k
Council Tax Reduction	2030-31	3,280k	3,422k	+142.1k
Council Tax Reduction	2026-27	3,210k	3,348k	+138.0k
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household	2031-32	£30,329	£30,422	+£93
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	2027-28	1,625k	1,650k	+24.9k
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household	2029-30	£29,373	£29,455	+£82
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household	2026-27	£40,908	£41,009	+£101
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household	2028-29	£29,013	£29,081	+£68
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	2027-28	14.1%	14.3%	+0.22pp
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household	2028-29	£17,992	£18,025	+£33
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household	2026-27	£35,901	£35,838	-£64
Council Tax Reduction	2031-32	£2.28bn	£2.42bn	+£137.6m
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children	2025-26	32.1%	31.9%	-0.13pp
Council Tax Reduction	2030-31	£2.23bn	£2.36bn	+£130.3m
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household	2030-31	£37,825	£37,874	+£49
Council Tax Reduction	2029-30	£2.18bn	£2.30bn	+£124.9m
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household	2028-29	£37,008	£36,963	-£45
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children	2025-26	33.0%	32.9%	-0.12pp
Council Tax Reduction	2028-29	£2.13bn	£2.25bn	+£119.4m
Council Tax Reduction	2027-28	£2.08bn	£2.19bn	+£114.3m
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household	2026-27	£17,997	£17,977	-£20
Council Tax Reduction	2026-27	£2.03bn	£2.14bn	+£109.7m
Council Tax Reduction	2025-26	£1.99bn	£2.09bn	+£105.8m

Spending by benefit and service

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Council Tax Reduction	+£105.8m	+£109.7m	+£114.3m	+£119.4m	+£124.9m	+£130.3m	+£137.6m
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed

Caseloads

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Council Tax Reduction	+140.3k	+138.0k	+140.2k	+140.8k	+141.4k	+142.1k	+142.8k
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed

Government balance, each component counted once

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Government spending	+£105.8m †	+£109.7m †	+£114.3m †	+£119.4m †	+£124.9m †	+£130.3m †	+£137.6m †
Government balance, each receipt once	-£105.8m †	-£109.7m †	-£114.3m †	-£119.4m †	-£124.9m †	-£130.3m †	-£137.6m †

Model totals

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
gov_spending	+£105.8m †	+£109.7m †	+£114.3m †	+£119.4m †	+£124.9m †	+£130.3m †	+£137.6m †
household_benefits	+£105.8m †	+£109.7m †	+£114.3m †	+£119.4m †	+£124.9m †	+£130.3m †	+£137.6m †
gov_balance	-£105.8m †	-£109.7m †	-£114.3m †	-£119.4m †	-£124.9m †	-£130.3m †	-£137.6m †

Household income totals

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Household net income	+£105.8m †	+£109.7m †	+£114.3m †	+£119.4m †	+£124.9m †	+£130.3m †	+£137.6m †
Household net income (HBAI definition)	+£105.8m	+£109.7m	+£114.3m	+£119.4m	+£124.9m	+£130.3m	+£137.6m

Poverty rates

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone	-0.01pp	-0.02pp	-0.02pp	-0.02pp	-0.02pp	-0.02pp	-0.02pp
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children	-0.02pp	-0.04pp	-0.04pp	-0.03pp	-0.03pp	-0.03pp	-0.04pp
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	-0.01pp	-0.02pp	-0.02pp	-0.02pp	-0.02pp	-0.02pp	-0.02pp
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone	-0.06pp	-0.02pp	-0.02pp	-0.03pp	-0.03pp	-0.03pp	-0.03pp
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children	-0.13pp	-0.03pp	-0.06pp	-0.08pp	-0.07pp	-0.07pp	-0.07pp
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	-0.05pp	-0.02pp	-0.01pp	-0.03pp	-0.03pp	-0.03pp	-0.03pp
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone	-0.01pp	-0.01pp	+0.02pp	-0.01pp	-0.01pp	-0.01pp	-0.01pp
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children	-0.01pp	-0.01pp	-0.03pp	-0.02pp	-0.02pp	-0.02pp	-0.03pp
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	-0.00pp	-0.00pp	-0.01pp	-0.01pp	-0.01pp	-0.01pp	-0.01pp
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	0	0	+0.22pp	0	+0.01pp	0	0
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone	-0.05pp	-0.03pp	-0.03pp	-0.03pp	-0.03pp	-0.03pp	-0.03pp
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children	-0.12pp	-0.08pp	-0.07pp	-0.08pp	-0.06pp	-0.06pp	-0.07pp
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	-0.04pp	-0.03pp	-0.03pp	-0.03pp	-0.02pp	-0.02pp	-0.03pp
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	0	0	+0.00pp	0	0	0	0

People in poverty

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone	-6.7k	-15.3k	-15.1k	-12.3k	-12.7k	-12.8k	-15.7k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children	-3.2k	-5.9k	-6.0k	-4.5k	-4.6k	-4.6k	-6.1k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	-3.5k	-9.4k	-9.1k	-7.7k	-8.2k	-8.2k	-9.7k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone	-40.2k	-13.4k	-14.1k	-22.8k	-23.3k	-22.1k	-22.2k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children	-20.0k	-5.3k	-8.6k	-11.5k	-10.8k	-10.2k	-10.2k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	-20.1k	-8.1k	-5.5k	-11.3k	-12.5k	-11.9k	-12.0k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone	-3.8k	-3.6k	+13.3k	-6.5k	-4.0k	-5.7k	-9.4k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children	-1.8k	-1.8k	-5.1k	-3.2k	-2.7k	-2.9k	-4.7k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	-2.1k	-1.8k	-6.5k	-3.2k	-2.5k	-2.9k	-4.7k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	0	0	+24.9k	0	+1.2k	0	0
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone	-36.6k	-22.5k	-23.1k	-22.8k	-20.1k	-18.3k	-22.0k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children	-18.3k	-11.4k	-10.9k	-11.5k	-9.7k	-8.8k	-10.7k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	-18.4k	-11.2k	-12.8k	-11.3k	-10.4k	-9.5k	-11.4k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	0	0	+551	0	0	0	0

Inequality

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Gini coefficient, equivalised HBAI income before housing costs	-0.0001	-0.0001	-0.0001	-0.0001	-0.0001	-0.0001	-0.0001

Mean household net income in each side's own deciles

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household	+£2.22 †	-£20 †	+£10 †	+£33 †	-£7.06 †	+£11 †	+£2.50 †
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household	+£24 †	+£15 †	+£23 †	+£68 †	+£82 †	-£24 †	+£93 †
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household	+£23 †	-£64 †	-£15 †	-£45 †	-£5.88 †	+£49 †	-£16 †
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household	+£2.44 †	+£101 †	+£11 †	+£3.60 †	+£35 †	+£3.02 †	+£13 †
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household	+£13 †	+£14 †	+£37 †	+£13 †	-£5.97 †	+£35 †	+£17 †
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household	-£11 †	-£12 †	-£28 †	-£23 †	-£27 †	-£25 †	-£20 †
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household	-£0.01 †	-£0.01 †	-£0.00 †	-£0.00 †	-£0.00 †	-£0.00 †	-£0.00 †
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household	+£1.50 †	+£1.46 †	+£1.51 †	+£1.57 †	+£1.63 †	+£1.68 †	+£1.73 †
Decile 9: mean household_net_income per household	+£0.08 †	+£0.09 †	+£0.09 †	+£0.09 †	+£0.10 †	+£0.10 †	+£0.11 †

Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance)

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp	-£11,458	-£12,302	-£12,934	-£13,514	-£14,097	-£14,928	-£15,664
Raise higher rate by 1pp	0	0	-£0	+£0	-£0	0	0
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year	-£15,507	+£2,288	+£897	+£899	+£820	+£34,822	+£7,109
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child	-£2,315	-£2,123	-£11,353	-£39,762	-£37,576	-£35,330	-£33,003
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%	-£59,617	-£34,284	-£83,589	-£0.1m	-£0.1m	-£0.1m	-£0.1m
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%	-£29,558	-£29,432	-£32,228	-£36,747	-£41,292	-£49,364	-£40,797
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp	-£12	+£5	-£6	+£22	+£2	+£3	-£39
Raise additional rate by 3pp	-£0	-£0	0	-£0	-£0	0	+£0
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%	-£2.3m	-£2.7m	-£2.9m	-£3.0m	-£3.1m	-£3.2m	-£3.3m
Raise the State Pension by 10%	0	0	-£0	0	-£0	+£0	-£0

Household net income by decile

Mean change in household net income per household, and as a share of the decile's base income; households stay in the base run's deciles.

Base decile	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Decile 1	+£13 (+0.1%)	+£13 (+0.1%)	+£13 (+0.1%)	+£13 (+0.1%)	+£15 (+0.1%)	+£13 (+0.1%)	+£15 (+0.1%)
Decile 2	+£5 (+0.0%)	+£5 (+0.0%)	+£7 (+0.0%)	+£7 (+0.0%)	+£7 (+0.0%)	+£9 (+0.0%)	+£9 (+0.0%)
Decile 3	+£5 (+0.0%)	+£6 (+0.0%)	+£5 (+0.0%)	+£4 (+0.0%)	+£4 (+0.0%)	+£4 (+0.0%)	+£4 (+0.0%)
Decile 4	+£4 (+0.0%)	+£5 (+0.0%)	+£5 (+0.0%)	+£6 (+0.0%)	+£6 (+0.0%)	+£7 (+0.0%)	+£7 (+0.0%)
Decile 5	+£3 (+0.0%)	+£3 (+0.0%)	+£3 (+0.0%)	+£3 (+0.0%)	+£3 (+0.0%)	+£3 (+0.0%)	+£3 (+0.0%)
Decile 6	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change
Decile 7	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change
Decile 8	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change
Decile 9	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change
Decile 10	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
all	+£3 (+0.0%)	+£4 (+0.0%)	+£4 (+0.0%)	+£4 (+0.0%)	+£4 (+0.0%)	+£4 (+0.0%)	+£4 (+0.0%)

Year	People gaining over £1	People losing over £1
2025-26	0.5%	0.0%
2026-27	0.5%	0.0%
2027-28	0.5%	0.0%
2028-29	0.5%	0.0%
2029-30	0.5%	0.0%
2030-31	0.5%	0.0%
2031-32	0.5%	0.0%

No change in any year: receipts by tax head; components the model counts twice; population; standard reforms: change in each reform's target.

Checks failing on both base and head (1)

• VAT is never negative (sign:vat): 2025-26: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-54,797,972 in total; 2026-27: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-56,271,349 in total; 2027-28: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-57,609,146 in total

Counted-once check

Each of 84 components was raised by £1 per unit in 2026-27, and every head of its totals was read household by household: its own head must rise by exactly £1, no other tax head may move, no other benefit may rise, and the model's own total must move by what its heads moved. A head that breaks a rule is measured again twice: with every other head held at its baseline value, and with every other head held at its value after the first £1 while the component rises again. It fails where either still shows the response. 0 failed; 0 were skipped.

• declared double count corporate_sdlt is still contained in expected_sdlt (coefficient 1.000; Corporate SDLT is counted twice in household and government tax totals #2159)

Provenance

Side	Commit	Runtime	Environment hash	Partition hash	Time
base	main 69903500ea	uk 2.141.7 (files 4eecf7c2d8b5), core 3.33.2, py 3.13.16 aarch64	9432d584e851	0d0426ee9e38	926.33s
head	#1966 merged into main 4fa309d415	uk 2.141.7 (files 9605b07332b6), core 3.33.2, py 3.13.16 aarch64	9432d584e851	0d0426ee9e38	967.03s

Dataset: hf://policyengine/policyengine-uk-data-private/enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5@2526edbbb687a3b54dbb11272e5389e4b62d2ac2, sha256 056e80fd8e9151d78f432a25cde863340baee81304c6216a37fb575ce8563784 (verified on both sides), policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1.

Receipts by tax head: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Income tax	£299.38bn	£319.14bn	£336.66bn	£351.81bn	£367.35bn	£385.48bn	£403.83bn
National Insurance (employee and self-employed)	£52.58bn	£54.94bn	£56.75bn	£58.48bn	£60.62bn	£62.57bn	£65.03bn
National Insurance (employer)	£152.64bn	£159.18bn	£164.14bn	£168.73bn	£176.11bn	£181.72bn	£188.90bn
Employer NI change borne by capital	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Employer NI change borne by consumers	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Capital gains tax	£12.62bn	£13.06bn	£13.55bn	£14.04bn	£14.54bn	£15.09bn	£15.65bn
Student loan repayments	£7.83bn	£8.12bn	£8.35bn	£8.56bn	£8.79bn	£9.04bn	£9.38bn
VAT	£253.71bn	£260.53bn	£266.72bn	£273.14bn	£279.83bn	£286.71bn	£293.71bn
Change in VAT from its baseline	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
VAT on private school fees	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Fuel duties	£24.53bn	£24.64bn	£26.64bn	£26.69bn	£26.42bn	£25.76bn	£26.35bn
Alcohol duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Tobacco duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Vehicle excise duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
TV licence fee	£4.28bn	£4.43bn	£4.44bn	£4.46bn	£4.49bn	£4.51bn	£4.53bn
Council tax	£49.56bn	£52.45bn	£55.78bn	£59.39bn	£62.98bn	£66.74bn	£70.70bn
High value council tax surcharge	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.48bn	£0.49bn	£0.51bn	£0.52bn
Northern Ireland domestic rates	£0.55bn	£0.58bn	£0.61bn	£0.63bn	£0.67bn	£0.70bn	£0.73bn
Business rates	£31.73bn	£31.73bn	£31.73bn	£31.73bn	£31.73bn	£31.73bn	£31.73bn
Stamp duty land tax (own purchases, and corporate until the	£10.06bn	£10.56bn	£10.98bn	£11.40bn	£11.81bn	£12.23bn	£12.64bn
Land transaction tax (Wales)	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Land and buildings transaction tax (Scotland)	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn
Unspecified tax change borne by capital	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Unspecified tax change borne by consumers	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Wealth tax	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Wealth tax excluding the main residence	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Land value tax	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Carbon tax	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn

Spending by benefit and service: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
State Pension	£122.50bn	£127.12bn	£128.28bn	£130.21bn	£134.05bn	£138.02bn	£142.08bn
Pension Credit	£6.66bn	£7.04bn	£7.02bn	£7.09bn	£7.21bn	£7.34bn	£7.44bn
Winter Fuel Payment	£1.70bn	£1.68bn	£1.59bn	£1.57bn	£1.57bn	£1.55bn	£1.52bn
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland)	£0.19bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.21bn	£0.21bn	£0.22bn	£0.22bn
Universal Credit	£78.78bn	£83.09bn	£84.89bn	£86.65bn	£87.58bn	£89.00bn	£90.33bn
Housing Benefit	£8.59bn	£8.92bn	£9.19bn	£9.33bn	£9.61bn	£9.87bn	£10.15bn
Council Tax Reduction	£2.09bn	£2.14bn	£2.19bn	£2.25bn	£2.30bn	£2.36bn	£2.42bn
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related)	£2.12bn	£2.18bn	£2.23bn	£2.28bn	£2.33bn	£2.39bn	£2.45bn
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based)	£5.22bn	£5.36bn	£5.49bn	£5.62bn	£5.76bn	£5.90bn	£6.04bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based)	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based)	£0.29bn	£0.30bn	£0.30bn	£0.31bn	£0.32bn	£0.33bn	£0.33bn
Income Support	£0.12bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Working Tax Credit	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Child Tax Credit	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Incapacity Benefit	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Personal Independence Payment	£27.05bn	£28.19bn	£28.94bn	£29.64bn	£30.37bn	£31.11bn	£31.87bn
Disability Living Allowance	£7.52bn	£7.83bn	£8.04bn	£8.24bn	£8.44bn	£8.65bn	£8.86bn
Attendance Allowance	£8.71bn	£9.08bn	£9.32bn	£9.55bn	£9.78bn	£10.02bn	£10.26bn
Carer's Allowance	£4.50bn	£4.69bn	£4.81bn	£4.93bn	£5.05bn	£5.17bn	£5.29bn
Carer Support Payment (Scotland)	£0.35bn	£0.37bn	£0.38bn	£0.39bn	£0.40bn	£0.41bn	£0.41bn
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland)	£0.00bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn
Severe Disablement Allowance	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit	£0.51bn	£0.52bn	£0.53bn	£0.54bn	£0.56bn	£0.57bn	£0.59bn
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme	£0.61bn	£0.62bn	£0.64bn	£0.65bn	£0.67bn	£0.69bn	£0.70bn
War Widow's or Widower's Pension	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Child Benefit	£16.23bn	£16.91bn	£17.32bn	£17.73bn	£18.16bn	£18.60bn	£19.04bn
Scottish Child Payment	£0.50bn	£0.52bn	£0.53bn	£0.55bn	£0.56bn	£0.57bn	£0.58bn
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual)	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Healthy Start vouchers	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn
Maternity Allowance	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Statutory Maternity Pay	£3.32bn	£3.41bn	£3.49bn	£3.57bn	£3.66bn	£3.75bn	£3.84bn
Statutory Paternity Pay	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Statutory Sick Pay	£1.13bn	£1.16bn	£1.19bn	£1.22bn	£1.25bn	£1.28bn	£1.31bn
Sure Start Maternity Grant	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn
Bereavement Support Payment	£0.67bn	£0.69bn	£0.70bn	£0.72bn	£0.74bn	£0.76bn	£0.78bn
Tax-Free Childcare	£0.55bn	£0.56bn	£0.57bn	£0.58bn	£0.60bn	£0.61bn	£0.59bn
Extended childcare entitlement	£2.66bn	£3.14bn	£3.23bn	£3.30bn	£3.38bn	£3.47bn	£3.55bn
Universal childcare entitlement	£3.32bn	£3.59bn	£3.69bn	£3.78bn	£3.88bn	£3.99bn	£4.08bn
Targeted childcare entitlement	£0.57bn	£0.60bn	£0.62bn	£0.63bn	£0.65bn	£0.66bn	£0.67bn
Care to Learn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Childcare Grant	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Parents' Learning Allowance	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn
Adult Dependants' Grant	£0.06bn	£0.06bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn
Travel Grant	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
NHS spending	£204.68bn	£205.46bn	£206.22bn	£207.04bn	£207.96bn	£208.89bn	£209.79bn
State education spending	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn
Transport subsidy spending	£25.15bn	£25.25bn	£25.34bn	£25.44bn	£25.55bn	£25.67bn	£25.78bn
Cost-of-living support payment	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Energy Bills Rebate	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Basic income	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Disability basic income	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Other public spending budget change	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn

Caseloads: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
State Pension	11,308k	11,208k	10,906k	10,812k	10,860k	10,908k	10,955k
Pension Credit	1,490k	1,489k	1,477k	1,455k	1,457k	1,454k	1,450k
Winter Fuel Payment	7,091k	7,008k	6,593k	6,509k	6,491k	6,377k	6,242k
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland)	806k	807k	807k	805k	809k	812k	816k
Universal Credit	6,371k	6,379k	6,409k	6,419k	6,395k	6,387k	6,371k
Housing Benefit	1,254k	1,252k	1,254k	1,240k	1,244k	1,247k	1,249k
Council Tax Reduction	3,325k	3,348k	3,363k	3,385k	3,403k	3,422k	3,436k
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related)	187k	188k	188k	189k	190k	190k	191k
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based)	722k	724k	727k	730k	733k	737k	740k
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based)	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based)	67k	67k	68k	68k	68k	69k	69k
Income Support	25k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Working Tax Credit	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Child Tax Credit	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Incapacity Benefit	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Personal Independence Payment	3,581k	3,595k	3,608k	3,623k	3,639k	3,655k	3,671k
Disability Living Allowance	1,296k	1,301k	1,306k	1,311k	1,317k	1,323k	1,329k
Attendance Allowance	1,701k	1,708k	1,714k	1,721k	1,729k	1,736k	1,744k
Carer's Allowance	1,038k	1,042k	1,046k	1,050k	1,055k	1,059k	1,064k
Carer Support Payment (Scotland)	81k	82k	82k	82k	83k	83k	83k
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland)	0k	82k	82k	82k	83k	83k	83k
Severe Disablement Allowance	4k	4k	4k	4k	4k	4k	4k
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit	137k	138k	139k	139k	140k	140k	141k
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme	94k	94k	94k	95k	95k	95k	96k
War Widow's or Widower's Pension	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Child Benefit	8,136k	8,165k	8,185k	8,215k	8,249k	8,282k	8,314k
Scottish Child Payment	352k	354k	355k	356k	357k	358k	357k
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual)	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Healthy Start vouchers	200k	201k	202k	203k	204k	204k	205k
Maternity Allowance	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Statutory Maternity Pay	334k	335k	336k	338k	339k	341k	342k
Statutory Paternity Pay	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Statutory Sick Pay	182k	183k	183k	184k	185k	186k	186k
Sure Start Maternity Grant	26k	26k	26k	27k	27k	27k	27k
Bereavement Support Payment	98k	98k	99k	99k	100k	100k	101k
Tax-Free Childcare	1,017k	1,028k	1,028k	1,033k	1,034k	1,038k	1,023k
Extended childcare entitlement	665k	671k	675k	677k	682k	686k	687k
Universal childcare entitlement	986k	989k	992k	997k	1,002k	1,013k	1,015k
Targeted childcare entitlement	119k	120k	120k	121k	121k	122k	121k
Care to Learn	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Childcare Grant	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Parents' Learning Allowance	98k	99k	99k	100k	100k	100k	101k
Adult Dependants' Grant	18k	18k	12k	13k	13k	13k	13k
Travel Grant	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Cost-of-living support payment	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Energy Bills Rebate	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Basic income	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Disability basic income	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k

Government balance, each component counted once: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Government receipts, each component once	£899.48bn	£939.37bn	£976.38bn	£1,009.57bn	£1,045.85bn	£1,082.80bn	£1,123.71bn
Government spending	£536.68bn †	£551.03bn †	£557.37bn †	£564.44bn †	£573.00bn †	£582.25bn †	£591.42bn †
Government balance, each receipt once	£362.80bn †	£388.34bn †	£419.01bn †	£445.13bn †	£472.85bn †	£500.55bn †	£532.29bn †
Benefits in household_benefits but not in gov_spending	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn

Model totals: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
gov_tax	£902.61bn	£942.50bn	£979.51bn	£1,012.70bn	£1,048.98bn	£1,085.93bn	£1,126.84bn
household_tax	£496.26bn	£522.79bn	£548.64bn	£570.82bn	£593.03bn	£617.49bn	£644.24bn
pre_budget_change_household_tax	£488.43bn	£514.67bn	£540.29bn	£561.78bn	£583.75bn	£607.95bn	£634.34bn
gov_spending	£536.68bn †	£551.03bn †	£557.37bn †	£564.44bn †	£573.00bn †	£582.25bn †	£591.42bn †
household_benefits	£536.68bn †	£551.03bn †	£557.37bn †	£564.44bn †	£573.00bn †	£582.25bn †	£591.42bn †
gov_balance	£365.93bn †	£391.47bn †	£422.14bn †	£448.26bn †	£475.98bn †	£503.68bn †	£535.42bn †

Components the model counts twice: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
corporate_sdlt, counted again inside expected_sdlt	£3.13bn	£3.13bn	£3.13bn	£3.13bn	£3.13bn	£3.13bn	£3.13bn

Household income totals: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Household market income	£1,657.06bn	£1,719.25bn	£1,771.68bn	£1,821.99bn	£1,891.04bn	£1,949.88bn	£2,021.87bn
Household net income	£1,658.21bn †	£1,706.73bn †	£1,738.52bn †	£1,772.66bn †	£1,808.76bn †	£1,850.41bn †	£1,902.12bn †
Household net income (HBAI definition)	£1,466.77bn	£1,513.51bn	£1,545.71bn	£1,578.72bn	£1,612.75bn	£1,651.80bn	£1,702.21bn

Population: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
People	69,514k	69,778k	70,036k	70,316k	70,626k	70,944k	71,249k
Benefit units	35,247k	35,381k	35,512k	35,654k	35,811k	35,972k	36,127k
Households	31,167k	31,285k	31,401k	31,526k	31,665k	31,808k	31,944k

Poverty rates: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone	15.9%	14.9%	15.5%	15.6%	15.7%	15.8%	15.7%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children	23.7%	20.8%	21.5%	21.4%	21.6%	21.7%	21.6%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	13.8%	13.4%	14.0%	14.1%	14.2%	14.3%	14.2%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	13.7%	13.1%	13.2%	13.4%	13.5%	13.6%	13.6%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone	21.0%	20.6%	21.3%	21.5%	21.8%	22.1%	22.2%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children	31.9%	30.2%	30.9%	31.0%	31.6%	32.2%	32.4%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	19.5%	19.4%	20.2%	20.4%	20.7%	21.0%	21.0%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	12.7%	12.5%	12.6%	12.9%	13.0%	13.1%	13.4%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone	16.9%	16.4%	16.4%	16.5%	16.6%	16.7%	16.7%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children	25.6%	23.5%	23.2%	23.2%	23.2%	23.4%	23.4%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	14.4%	14.4%	14.6%	14.8%	14.9%	15.1%	15.0%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	14.8%	14.9%	14.3%	14.3%	14.2%	14.2%	14.4%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone	21.6%	21.3%	21.4%	21.4%	21.7%	21.8%	21.9%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children	32.9%	31.5%	31.1%	31.0%	31.4%	31.6%	31.9%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	19.9%	19.9%	20.3%	20.4%	20.6%	20.8%	20.9%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	13.5%	13.1%	12.7%	12.8%	12.7%	12.7%	12.8%

People in poverty: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone	11,045k	10,411k	10,833k	10,935k	11,066k	11,197k	11,202k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children	3,557k	3,135k	3,255k	3,248k	3,293k	3,330k	3,327k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	5,861k	5,727k	6,061k	6,158k	6,229k	6,306k	6,310k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	1,627k	1,549k	1,517k	1,529k	1,544k	1,561k	1,565k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone	14,620k	14,349k	14,885k	15,094k	15,416k	15,702k	15,848k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children	4,789k	4,551k	4,667k	4,708k	4,821k	4,929k	4,984k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	8,313k	8,318k	8,769k	8,919k	9,107k	9,263k	9,317k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	1,518k	1,480k	1,449k	1,466k	1,487k	1,509k	1,547k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone	11,756k	11,452k	11,517k	11,619k	11,702k	11,862k	11,905k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children	3,838k	3,536k	3,509k	3,522k	3,543k	3,579k	3,597k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	6,152k	6,158k	6,359k	6,462k	6,535k	6,649k	6,647k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	1,766k	1,758k	1,650k	1,634k	1,625k	1,634k	1,661k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone	15,028k	14,841k	14,970k	15,067k	15,294k	15,471k	15,631k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children	4,930k	4,744k	4,700k	4,703k	4,785k	4,832k	4,908k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	8,493k	8,548k	8,809k	8,906k	9,057k	9,182k	9,248k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	1,605k	1,548k	1,460k	1,458k	1,452k	1,457k	1,475k

Inequality: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Gini coefficient, equivalised HBAI income before housing costs	0.3073	0.3050	0.3064	0.3071	0.3076	0.3082	0.3093

Mean household net income in each side's own deciles: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household	£17,709 †	£17,977 †	£17,952 †	£18,025 †	£18,319 †	£18,534 †	£18,688 †
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household	£28,386 †	£29,056 †	£28,695 †	£29,081 †	£29,455 †	£29,755 †	£30,422 †
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household	£34,629 †	£35,838 †	£36,493 †	£36,963 †	£37,258 †	£37,874 †	£38,499 †
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household	£39,331 †	£41,009 †	£41,818 †	£42,699 †	£43,221 †	£43,987 †	£45,143 †
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household	£44,884 †	£46,161 †	£47,114 †	£47,622 †	£48,373 †	£49,287 †	£50,090 †
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household	£47,920 †	£49,313 †	£50,244 †	£51,047 †	£52,143 †	£52,914 †	£54,202 †
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household	£56,320 †	£57,578 †	£58,469 †	£59,414 †	£60,124 †	£61,607 †	£63,192 †
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household	£69,252 †	£70,362 †	£71,637 †	£72,870 †	£74,329 †	£75,791 †	£77,565 †
Decile 9: mean household_net_income per household	£79,671 †	£82,009 †	£83,243 †	£84,444 †	£86,085 †	£87,570 †	£90,640 †
Decile 10: mean household_net_income per household	£117,648 †	£120,458 †	£122,406 †	£124,560 †	£126,772 †	£129,080 †	£131,872 †

Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance): head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp	£6.22bn	£6.50bn	£6.71bn	£6.90bn	£7.11bn	£7.35bn	£7.62bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp	£3.54bn	£3.82bn	£4.05bn	£4.27bn	£4.49bn	£4.76bn	£4.96bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year	£-3.83bn	£-3.96bn	£-4.03bn	£-4.10bn	£-4.20bn	£-4.30bn	£-2.02bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child	£-2.00bn	£-1.76bn	£-1.64bn	£-1.54bn	£-1.44bn	£-1.34bn	£-1.24bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%	£-20.54bn	£-21.10bn	£-21.45bn	£-21.88bn	£-21.96bn	£-22.33bn	£-22.81bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%	£11.06bn	£11.51bn	£11.83bn	£12.14bn	£12.47bn	£12.81bn	£13.29bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp	£25.01bn	£25.68bn	£26.29bn	£26.92bn	£27.58bn	£28.26bn	£28.95bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp	£2.83bn	£3.07bn	£3.27bn	£3.47bn	£3.67bn	£3.91bn	£4.23bn
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%	£-3.04bn	£-3.17bn	£-3.25bn	£-3.33bn	£-3.37bn	£-3.43bn	£-3.47bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%	£-8.92bn	£-9.13bn	£-9.03bn	£-9.06bn	£-9.26bn	£-9.51bn	£-9.78bn

Standard reforms: change in each reform's target: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp: change in income_tax	£6.36bn	£6.65bn	£6.87bn	£7.07bn	£7.29bn	£7.53bn	£7.81bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp: change in income_tax	£3.55bn	£3.83bn	£4.06bn	£4.28bn	£4.50bn	£4.78bn	£4.97bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year: change in income_tax	£-3.96bn	£-4.11bn	£-4.19bn	£-4.27bn	£-4.36bn	£-4.47bn	£-1.77bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child: change in child_benefit	£2.34bn	£2.15bn	£2.03bn	£1.92bn	£1.82bn	£1.71bn	£1.59bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%: change in universal_credit	£20.53bn	£21.09bn	£21.44bn	£21.87bn	£21.95bn	£22.32bn	£22.80bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%: change in national_insurance	£11.33bn	£11.79bn	£12.13bn	£12.44bn	£12.78bn	£13.13bn	£13.62bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp: change in vat	£25.01bn	£25.68bn	£26.29bn	£26.92bn	£27.58bn	£28.26bn	£28.95bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax	£2.83bn	£3.07bn	£3.27bn	£3.47bn	£3.67bn	£3.91bn	£4.23bn
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%: change in universal_credit	£3.04bn	£3.17bn	£3.25bn	£3.32bn	£3.38bn	£3.43bn	£3.48bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%: change in state_pension	£12.25bn	£12.71bn	£12.83bn	£13.02bn	£13.41bn	£13.80bn	£14.21bn