[MaxGhenis]

Fixes #1960.

Reproducer: policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/gov/dwp/capital_valuation.yaml::UC values a mortgaged holiday home as in ADM H1602, policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/gov/dwp/capital_valuation.yaml::UC shares valued less sale expenses bring capital within the limit, policyengine_uk/tests/test_capital_valuation_properties.py::test_valuation_matches_the_regulation_and_never_adds_capital

Universal Credit and every legacy means test counted each capital source at full value. The regulations value capital "at its current market value or surrender value less— (a) where there would be expenses attributable to sale, 10%; and (b) the amount of any encumbrances secured on it" (UC Regs 2013 reg 49(1)). This PR applies that valuation to UC, Housing Benefit, Income Support, income-based JSA, income-related ESA and Pension Credit.

The law

Programme	Provision (GB)	Northern Ireland
Universal Credit	UC Regs 2013 reg 49(1)	S.R. 2016/216 reg 49(1)
Housing Benefit	HB Regs 2006 reg 47; HB (SPC) Regs 2006 reg 45	S.R. 2006/405 reg 44; S.R. 2006/406 reg 43
Income Support	IS Regs 1987 reg 49	S.R. 1987/459 reg 49
Income-based JSA	JSA Regs 1996 reg 111	S.R. 1996/198 reg 111
Income-related ESA	ESA Regs 2008 reg 113	S.R. 2008/280 reg 113
Pension Credit	SPC Regs 2002 reg 19	S.R. 2003/28 reg 19

• All the legacy provisions say the same thing, in older wording ("10 per cent", "encumbrance/incumbrance").
• The GB provisions were substituted on 1.10.2007 (SI 2007/2618). The as-made JSA 1996, SPC 2002 and HB 2006 texts already carried the 10% and encumbrance rule, plus a National Savings Certificate special case that the substitution removed. So each rate parameter starts on the date its sources parameter starts.
• The texts were fetched from legislation.gov.uk /data.xml on 2026-09-30. An independent re-fetch confirmed the regulation numbers: JSA is reg 111, not 109; ESA is reg 113, not 112.

The DWP guidance sets the order and scope of the deductions:

• The flat 10% applies only where selling needs an agent, broker, auctioneer, solicitor or accountant, whatever the actual costs (ADM H1604-H1605).
• Real property always has costs of sale (H1606).
• The 10% comes off gross value, before encumbrances (H1608; DMG 29624; MH v Waltham Forest [2016] UKUT 161 (AAC) para 43).
• A secured debt is deducted only from the asset it is secured on; unsecured debt is not deducted (H1615-H1616).

What changes

• capital.sale_expenses for each programme, next to its existing capital.sources:
  • rate is 0.1.
  • sources lists the capital sources whose sale incurs expenses. Each cites that programme's regulation and guidance (ADM for UC, DMG ch 29 for IS/JSA, DMG ch 84 for PC, HBGM BW1/BP1 for HB).
• policyengine_uk/utils/capital_valuation.py adds valued_capital(). For each source it takes 10% of gross value where the source is listed, then subtracts the debt secured on that source, and floors each encumbered source at nil. Negative equity in one asset therefore never reduces another.
• Penny rounding, as each programme's regulations require. A new capital.round_down parameter for each programme sets the rule:
  • Nearest penny, half up: UC (UC Regs 2013 reg 6(1), which is mandatory; NI reg 7(1)) and HB (HB Regs 2006 reg 80; HB (SPC) Regs 2006 reg 61(6); NI regs 78(8) and 59(7)).
  • Down: IS (reg 27), JSA (reg 92), ESA (reg 3(a)) and Pension Credit (reg 24A). These count a fraction as a penny only where that is to the claimant's advantage.
  • ADM H1665 rounds a share valuation down. For UC the regulation governs the guidance (logged as a ruling).
  • Each valuation, each UC holding and property share, and each programme's assessed capital (the last stage) is rounded by that rule, in float64.
  • exact_amount removes float32 storage error, but only where a stored value is the float nearest a whole penny (£1,000.10 is stored as 1,000.0999756). Any other value, such as a share price to four decimal places, is kept exactly.
• Universal Credit on current main. Main values UC property on its own path (UC capital: a reported financial-capital figure replaces the whole capital stock, so second-home and non-residential property drop out #2439: property_sources, uc_*_property_capital, secured debt). This PR:
  • folds main's separate property_sale_cost_rate into the one capital.sale_expenses.rate, so a single 10% serves property and the financial pool;
  • lists corporate_wealth as UC's financial source with costs of sale, so shares count at 90% (savings stay at face value).
• Regulation 77 (Model Universal Credit reg 77 for owner-managers of a company #1965). This PR lands second of the two, so the reg 49 factor is applied exactly once:
  • a disregarded company holding leaves capital at the value at which it was counted, 90% from the household pool (household_uc_pool_company_holdings), in the override floor (household_uc_reported_financial_capital) and from a complete uc_reported_capital, which is a countable figure;
  • it leaves the owner's own recorded benunit_reported_capital total in full, because that total is used unvalued;
  • where a recorded total is consumed from the household pool, it consumes its part beyond the holding in full and the holding at the counted 90%. A total below the holding still consumes the holding, as a complete override does, so no part of an owner's holding is left for another unit;
  • a small counted_share helper keeps the rule in one place. The company capital substituted under reg 77(2) stays outside the helper (ADM H1892).
• The six *_assessable_capital variables call the helper instead of sum(...). The allocation proxies (adult shares, reported-claim paths) and the uc_reported_capital override are unchanged. Reported capital is taken as already assessed.
• Three household inputs, defaulting to 0 and registered in uprating_indices.yaml next to the values they offset:
  • other_residential_property_secured_debt
  • non_residential_property_secured_debt
  • owned_land_secured_debt
• Council tax reduction. The national schemes on main test only household savings, so nothing changes there. Kingston, Westminster, Merton and Newham use uc_assessable_capital for UC claimants, so they inherit the UC valuation. That is what the prescribed schemes' UC pass-throughs require (2886 para 37(6); WSI 3029 Sch 6 para 9(6)).

Which sources take the 10%

Source	10%?	Authority
savings (bank and building society balances, cash ISAs)	No	Inferred, not stated in terms: an account is valued at "the balance in the account" (ADM H1675, DMG 29685, DMG 84731), and the incidental costs of withdrawing money are not costs of sale (H1607). No guidance paragraph says "cash has no costs of sale".
owned_land, other_residential_property_value, non_residential_property_value	Yes, always	Real property (ADM H1606). The WAS round 8 variables behind these are gross values ("Total value of other houses/buildings/UK land"), so the 10% applies to the right base.
corporate_wealth	Yes	Quoted shares take 10% (ADM H1665). Unit trusts do not: "no costs of sale ... even if persons use an agent" (H1674). ISAs are valued at withdrawal value (H1656).

The corporate_wealth row is a judgement, and the parameter descriptions say so:

• The variable bundles shares with unit trusts and stocks-and-shares ISAs.
• From WAS round 8 aggregates with an HMRC ISA look-through (Table 9.6), about 46% of the share-like holdings carry sale costs. That makes the correct deduction about 4.6% of value: about 6.3% among households near the £16,000 limit, where direct shareholdings dominate.
• A flat 10% overstates the correct deduction by about 1.6× near the limit. Leaving corporate_wealth unlisted would understate it by the full 6.3 points.
• The proper fix is a data split (see follow-ups).

Invariants

These hold for every input and are tested as properties (policyengine_uk/tests/test_capital_valuation_properties.py, Hypothesis). The first two were also checked on every Enhanced FRS record in every year of the impact runs below.

1. Non-increasing. Every programme's assessable capital is at most its value with the deduction off (rate 0, no debt).
2. Cash only. A household holding only savings has the same capital with the deduction on or off.
3. Differential. Capital equals an independent implementation of the regulation: savings + Σ max(0, 90% × value − secured debt), over each programme's own source list.
4. Monotone. A higher rate, or more secured debt, never raises capital.
5. Isolation. Debt secured on one asset never takes capital below the value of the household's other assets, and capital is never negative.
6. Pennies. 90% of any whole-penny value stored as a float32 input equals the exact figure rounded down, or to the nearest penny. This is checked in integer pence up to £131,071.99, the largest value float32 holds to the penny.
7. Never the wrong way. For any stored value, whole penny or not, the result is within a penny below 90% of the exact value when rounding down, and within half a penny of it when rounding to the nearest penny. Storage error is removed only within half the stored value's own precision.
8. Whole pennies through the model. Every programme counts whole-penny savings in full, shares at 90% rounded by its rule, and a Lifetime ISA at 75% below its charge-free age, to the penny.

Tests

• New policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/gov/dwp/capital_valuation.yaml has twenty-one cases, each worked by hand from the provisions above:
  • UC:
    • the ADM H1602 example: £125,000 − £12,500 − £100,500 = £12,000, so tariff income is 24 × £4.35 × 12 = £1,252.80;
    • cash savings at face value;
    • shares that bring capital under the limit: £5,000 + 90% × £12,000 = £15,800;
    • negative equity that doesn't reach savings;
    • sale expenses taken before the encumbrance;
    • each encumbered source floored on its own: a second home in negative equity plus premises worth £10,000 gives £9,000, where netting the debts across both would give nil;
    • the exact limit: £1,000 + 90% × £16,666.67 (£15,000.003, so £15,000.00 to the nearest penny) is £16,000.00, which is not greater than £16,000 (WRA 2012 s 5(1)(a); UC Regs 2013 reg 18(1)), so the household is eligible;
    • half a penny up: £1,000.02 + 90% × £16,666.65 (£14,999.985, so £14,999.99) is £16,000.01, over the limit;
    • £16,000.01 of savings under IS, JSA and ESA stays £16,000.01: stored as float32 16,000.0098, it is recovered as that penny before the last-stage floor;
    • a £1,000.04 Lifetime ISA counts £750.03;
    • pennies: 90% of £16,001 of property is £14,400.90 and 90% of £1,000.10 of shares is £900.09, £15,300.99 in all;
    • the ADM H1665 / DMG 84763 worked example, 250 shares at £4.1375: Pension Credit counts £930.93 and UC £930.94.
  • IS: capital shared three ways is rounded down at the last stage: £10,000.01 gives £3,333.33 each.
  • HB:
    • encumbered land;
    • mortgaged second homes and premises: £1,000 + (£45,000 − £30,000) + max(0, £18,000 − £25,000) = £16,000;
    • pension-age HB under HB (SPC) reg 45: 90% × £200,000 − £50,000 = £130,000. Deemed income of 240 × £52 = £12,480 exceeds the guarantee, so no guarantee credit disregards it.
  • IS, JSA, ESA and PC: one case each with secured debt or shares.
• Updated existing expectations, each with the arithmetic in a comment:
  • IS, JSA and ESA, the cases that ignore the main residence: £10,500 becomes £1,000 + 90% × £9,500 = £9,550.
  • The private-pension disregard cases: £3,000 becomes £2,800.
  • UC and HB £50,000 property and wealth cases: £45,000.
  • The HB and PC land cases keep their intent by raising the input: 90% × £17,780 = £16,002 stays over the HB limit. A new HB case shows that land worth £16,001 now falls within it.
  • Pension Credit cases 4 and 5 are recomputed in full:
    • Case 4: capital £50,288, deemed income 81 × £52 = £4,212. Savings credit is now 60% × (£12,376 − £208.07 × 52) − 40% × (£14,688 − £12,376) = £9.02.
    • Case 5: capital £98,670, deemed income 178 × £52 = £9,256, guarantee credit £3,120.
  • test_stock_capital_periods.py now also gives the second home a £5,000 mortgage: £12,000 + (£10,800 − £5,000) + £10,800 = £28,600, the same for a month as for the year.
• test_capital_valuation_properties.py (Hypothesis, 20-200 households per example). The oracle fixes which assets take the 10%, and the 10% itself, from the law, rather than reading the parameters. Removing HB's two property sources from its list makes these tests fail.
• Regulation 77 tests from main, rewritten from the law now that shares count at 90%:
  • uc_company_analogous_business.yaml and the property-capital YAML and Python suites, with each figure worked in a comment;
  • a new regression, "A recorded financial total consumes its owner's company holding at its counted value": £16,500 of savings and a £10,000 holding, with a £10,000 recorded total, give capital of [£0, £16,500];
  • test_uc_company_override_properties.py: the conservation oracle (unit capitals plus disregarded holdings at 90% equal the valued pool) consumes holdings the same way. Its grid now includes recorded totals below the holdings: 1,280 households per layout;
  • three more regressions:
    • after a £10,000.01 holding leaves a £25,000.01 pool, the other unit's capital is exactly £16,000.00 and eligible;
    • £48,000.01 shared three ways is £16,000.00 each;
    • a £4,000 recorded total below a £10,000 holding consumes the holding at £9,000, leaving the other unit only its savings.
• CI: re-running on 9b9ef66. Locally all 1,991 YAML cases under gov/dwp, finance/benefit/family and council_tax_reduction pass, as do the focused capital, company, allocation and warning-filter Python tests (162). Every check passed on a7d8988, including the full Python and YAML shards and the aggregate-impact job.

Impact on the certified data

These are real paired runs by this repository's aggregate-impact CI on enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5 (policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1, sha256 056e80fd8e91). Base is main e2ea32893; head is this PR merged onto it. Each fiscal year is a full microsimulation on each side (report).

Change	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Universal Credit	+£225.7m	+£370.5m	+£577.9m	+£516.8m	+£1.32bn	+£1.49bn	+£1.12bn
Universal Credit caseload	+31.5k	+44.0k	+47.0k	+46.7k	+97.9k	+92.4k	+69.2k
Housing Benefit	+£0.8m	+£0.8m	+£0.3m	+£2.7m	+£0.5m	+£31.0m	+£45.5m
Pension Credit	+£0.9m	+£1.0m	+£1.0m	+£0.7m	+£0.7m	+£0.7m	+£0.6m
ESA (income-related)	+£4.4m	+£0.9m	+£1.0m	+£3.5m	+£1.4m	+£1.4m	+£1.6m
Scottish Child Payment	0	0	0	0	+£5.9m	+£6.1m	+£4.9m
Tax-Free Childcare	-£0.9m	-£1.3m	-£1.3m	0	-£1.5m	-£10.3m	-£10.6m
Household net income	+£231.2m	+£372.9m	+£579.1m	+£523.9m	+£1.33bn	+£1.52bn	+£1.16bn
Absolute poverty AHC, children	-0.02pp	-0.19pp	-0.29pp	-0.16pp	-0.42pp	-0.37pp	-0.15pp

How to read these:

• Who gains. Household-matched changes within the base run's deciles are non-negative in every decile and year, and largest in deciles 1, 2 and (from 2029-30) 5.
• Decile flags. The report's "mean household_net_income per household" flags (for example decile 9, −£480 in 2026-27) are each side's own-decile levels (measure.py, group "Own-decile levels"). They move as households re-rank, and they net to the total.
• Knock-ons. Scottish Child Payment and Tax-Free Childcare move because new UC claimants become eligible for the first and lose the second: UC is among SCP's qualifying_benefits and among Tax-Free Childcare's disqualifying_benefits.
• Concentration. UC caseload moves by 30-100k, so the figures rest on a modest number of records near the capital limits. On the earlier build, the year-to-year swings came from records crossing the frozen £16,000 limit as capital is uprated. That was not decomposed on this dataset.
• Composition. The figures are the effect of the code on this dataset's capital variables. Where corporate_wealth still holds unit trusts, ISAs or pension wealth (see the parameter descriptions, Exclude corporate_wealth from Universal Credit countable capital pending a pension split #1837 and policyengine-uk-data#501), part of the share deduction reaches assets the law would treat differently. These are not a fiscal estimate of reg 49 alone.

Earlier runs on a private copy of the 29 September Enhanced FRS build (before #1950, #2201 and #2439 merged) are kept in the evidence folder for the record. On that build every award effect ran through corporate_wealth, about 85% of which was pension wealth there. A run that applied the deduction to property and land only changed no award.

Coordination

• Exclude corporate_wealth from Universal Credit countable capital pending a pension split #1837 (draft; removes corporate_wealth from UC sources pending the pension split). Compatible: sale-expense lists are keyed by source name. Once corporate_wealth leaves UC's sources, the UC listing has no effect.
• Stop counting interest, dividends and rent as Universal Credit unearned income #1950 (capital-derived income) has merged. This PR updates the let-property cases it added (uc_income_from_capital.yaml GB and NI, and the savings-0 case in uc_unearned_income.yaml): £10,000 of property is now £9,000 of capital, so 12 tariff steps, £626.40 a year, and UC of £4,472.40.
• Model Universal Credit reg 77 for owner-managers of a company #1965 (reg 77, sole owners and partners of companies) edits the docstring and return of uc_assessable_capital.py. The only expected conflict is the docstring; whichever PR merges second resolves it. The capital a person is deemed to possess under reg 77(2) stays outside the reg 49 helper:
  • Reg 77(2) deems "an amount of capital equal to the value ... of the capital of the company". That is a deemed amount, not an asset the person possesses.
  • ADM H1892 (citing R(IS) 13/93) values it as the company's net capital, after its liabilities, and mentions no 10%.
  • ADM H1885 on notional capital in general points the other way. The two PRs take the same position.
  • One interaction to fix on whichever PR rebases second. Model Universal Credit reg 77 for owner-managers of a company #1965 subtracts uc_company_holding_disregard at full value, while this PR counts the holding (inside corporate_wealth) at 90%. The holding should come off at the rate its source was counted at, 1 − sale_expenses.rate, in both places Model Universal Credit reg 77 for owner-managers of a company #1965 subtracts it: the unreported household pool and a reporting benefit unit's uc_reported_capital.
• Add cash ISA and stocks and shares ISA holdings variables #1791 (cash ISA / stocks-and-shares ISA variables). This would let the lists exempt cash ISAs explicitly.
• Disregard guarantee credit recipients' income and capital in pensioner council tax reduction #1909 / CTR. The national CTR schemes count only savings (follow-up below).

axiom: TheAxiomFoundation/rulespec-uk#395 queued

• Reg 49 is not encoded in rulespec-uk: UC 46, 47, 48, 18 and 72 take valued capital as an opaque leaf.
• None of these provisions is in the pinned signed corpus release, so the encoder route is blocked until they are ingested. The queued issue carries the verbatim law, corpus state, landing path, a pasteable review_finding and hand-computed companion tests (ADM H1602 and H1616).

Follow-ups (chips filed)

• Export secured debt on other property (WAS DVHseDebtR8_sum, DVBldDebtR8_sum, DVLUKDebtR8_sum; buy-to-let DVBltValR8_sum/DVBLtDebtR8_sum is being checked too), the pension split and a share / fund / ISA split of corporate_wealth from policyengine-uk-data. In progress as Split pensions, shares, trusts, ISAs and secured debt out of WAS wealth policyengine-uk-data#501 (draft). It exports private_pension_wealth, directly_held_shares, unit_and_investment_trusts, stocks_and_shares_isa, cash_isa and the three *_secured_debt columns, and adds buy-to-let to other_residential_property_value. A model-side follow-up stacked on this PR will name the split variables in the sale-expense lists, so that unit trusts and stocks-and-shares ISAs are exempt.
• National CTR schemes count only savings and apply no tariff income; they should count all capital, with the UC and PC pass-throughs.
• UC capital sources omit owned_land, which every legacy test counts (from Add Universal Credit capital limits #1572, no stated reason).
• axiom-oracles' capital surfaces feed PE assessable capital into the Axiom side, so they can never catch a valuation error.
• rulespec-uk's composed UC pipeline ends entitlement at exactly £16,000 (>=); the Act says "not greater than".

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[MaxGhenis]

Coordination note from #1950 (UC capital income). If this PR lands after #1950, please update the "reg 49 is #1960" notes #1950 adds:

• in uc_income_from_capital.yaml, the header and both let-property cases (GB and NI);
• in uc_unearned_income.yaml, the savings-0 let-property case.

Those cases enter £10,000 of property as capital. At 90% that is 12 tariff steps, not 16, so either update the expected values or restate the input as a property value of £11,111.11. If #1950 lands second, I'll do it on rebase. #1950's merge is waiting on a decision from Max (over the £1bn/yr line).

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[MaxGhenis]

#1950 merged (770bc06), so this PR is second. Please update the "reg 49 is #1960" notes:

• in uc_income_from_capital.yaml, the header and the GB and NI let-property cases;
• in uc_unearned_income.yaml, the savings-0 let-property case.

At 90% valuation, £10,000 of property is 12 tariff steps, not 16, so either update the expected values or enter £11,111.11.

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

[MaxGhenis]

Stacked follow-up: #2131 lists only directly_held_shares and unitemised_corporate_wealth as share-like sources with sale expenses, so unit and investment trusts (ADM H1673-H1674) and stocks and shares ISAs (ADM H1656) count at full value. It builds on this branch's head 22274ca and includes #1974, which itemises corporate_wealth in the six capital lists. Datasets that don't itemise keep this PR's flat treatment exactly.

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[vahid-ahmadi]

Thanks Max. Reviewed at head 22274cad.

The law is right in every programme. I re-fetched each provision from legislation.gov.uk:

• UC Regs 2013 reg 49(1): "Capital is to be calculated at its current market value or surrender value less— (a) where there would be expenses attributable to sale, 10%; and (b) the amount of any encumbrances secured on it."

• The same rule appears, in older wording ("10 per cent", "encumbrance/incumbrance"), in:

  • SPC Regs 2002 reg 19;
  • HB Regs 2006 reg 47 and HB (SPC) Regs 2006 reg 45;
  • IS Regs 1987 reg 49;
  • JSA Regs 1996 reg 111;
  • ESA Regs 2008 reg 113.

  The regulation numbers are right (JSA 111 and ESA 113).

• CTR Prescribed Requirements SI 2012/2885 Sch 1 para 32 has the same 10% rule for pension-age CTR.

• SPC Sch V has no disregard that touches share, unit trust or ISA valuation. Para 9 is business assets only.

The helper follows the guidance. valued_capital takes the 10% off gross value before the debt (ADM H1608) and floors each encumbered source on its own (H1615-H1616).

Probes all match hand arithmetic:

• savings £5,000 + corporate_wealth £12,000 gives £15,800 for UC, HB and IS, and £15,800 for PC at 70 (main: £17,000);
• a £100,000 second home with £95,000 debt plus £3,000 savings gives £3,000;
• a second home of £20,000 with £25,000 debt plus premises of £10,000 gives £9,000.

Tests:

• At the head: properties, PC reported capital and stock periods, 9 passed. DWP, family and CTR YAML, 967 passed.
• Merged into current main b5b09231 (the merge is clean; the branch is 280 commits behind): the same YAML set, 1,274 passed. But two of the new property tests fail; see finding 1. The green CI is from the stale merge ref.

Findings:

1. Blocking (rebase). On main + this branch, test_valuation_matches_the_regulation_and_never_adds_capital and test_cash_only_households_have_no_deduction fail (2 failed, 8 passed). The valuation isn't the problem; the test's oracle is out of date.

   • Main now sets HB capital to nil for anyone on UC, IS, income-based JSA or income-related ESA (HB Regs Sch 6 para 5, housing_benefit_on_passporting_benefit). It also switches the pension-age rules on housing_benefit_pension_age_regulations_apply rather than age 67.
   • So a working-age single person with £2,441.62 of cash now has HB capital of nil (on main too), while applies() at tests/test_capital_valuation_properties.py:127 still expects their savings.
   • I reproduced the cash-only failure directly. The other failing test uses the same applies() predicate, so it is most likely the same cause.
   • Fix: rebase and key the pension-age branch on housing_benefit_pension_age_regulations_apply. Then either skip units where housing_benefit_on_passporting_benefit is true, or give the generated units enough earnings to stay off UC. Skipping alone would hollow out the working-age HB branch, because the strategy's no-income singles are nearly all on UC.

2. Blocking (merge order with #1974). Git merges this branch and #1974 cleanly, but together they undo this PR:

   • #1974 takes corporate_wealth out of every capital.sources list, while this PR's sale_expenses.sources still names it. So the 10% on shares silently stops.
   • On a 1969 + 1974 tree, the probe above goes back to £17,000. Seven YAML cases fail: 3 in capital_valuation.yaml, and 2 each in the IS and ESA capital files.
   • #2131 fixes this. So either merge #1974 first and then this PR and #2131 together, or merge this PR and then #2131 retargeted to main (it carries #1974).
   • A cheap guard in tests/test_capital_valuation_properties.py: assert set(sale_expenses.sources) <= set(capital.sources) for each programme. The existing check at line 160 intersects both sides with counted, so it can't see a stale name.

3. Should fix (body, disclosure). In "A few records carry each figure", the UC, PC and HB bullets, and the poverty bullet, attribute most of each year's change to one or a handful of records, with percentages and counts. Read against the impact table, that is effectively a record-level weighted amount. Keep the caveat ("driven by a handful of records; not an estimate") and drop the percentages, record counts and the median gain.

4. Nit. parameters/gov/dwp/income_support/means_test/capital/sale_expenses/rate.yaml:9. This starts on 2010-01-01, to match sources. IS reg 49 has applied the 10% since 11.4.1988. Add a sentence saying the date follows the sources list, as the HB and PC files already explain their own dates.

5. Nit. utils/capital_valuation.py:18-19. Netting debt across assets within a category is documented. H1616 actually allows it where one debt is secured on several assets. You could cite that, so the approximation reads as partly lawful rather than purely a data limitation.

6. Coordination with #1965. Merged with #1965 there is no textual conflict, but the holding comes off at 100% while it is counted at 90%: savings £5,000 + a £10,000 holding gives £4,000 instead of £5,000. I've put the fix on #1965, since it rebases second.

[MaxGhenis]

Refreshed onto current main at Fleet ops' request (owner session c12c197a not running): 54ed063.

• Owner's local commits pushed: a885743 (merge of main) and f3929c1 (CTR Pension Credit case valued under reg 19), both from 10/11 and previously unpushed.
• Main merged again: merge 503bebb, clean.
• Test fix: one property test updated (54ed063). Main's Housing Benefit passport (Key the Housing Benefit Guarantee Credit passport on receipt #1927 and its UC limb) gives passported families nil HB capital, so the independent reg 47 valuation now skips them.

Local results on the new head:

• benefit, gov/dwp, household/wealth and gov/local_authorities YAML: 1,669 passed;
• property tests: 3 passed;
• code_health: passed;
• ruff: clean.

A fresh independent review is being requested at this head.

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[vahid-ahmadi]

Needs changes before merge. The reg 49 valuation is still right. But this head fails a main test in CI, and #1965 merged first without the rate fix I flagged last time, so on main the company holding now comes off at the wrong rate.

@MaxGhenis, this is a delta review. My last review was at 22274cad; this one is at 1efee62b. Since then:

• main was merged three times (up to 976ec91fe);
• the CTR shares case was revalued under reg 19 (f3929c19);
• the HB property oracle was reworked (54ed063b, 3abaf166, 1efee62b).

Main has since moved on to 714b1438c, which includes #1965.

Status of my earlier findings:

• F1 (stale HB oracle): fixed. Passported units are now asserted to have nil HB capital, and a fixed test proves both branches run. Its property tests pass at this head and on current main.
• F2 (merge order with #1974): still live. See finding 4.
• F3 (record-level figures in the body): not addressed. See finding 5.
• F4 and F5 (nits): not taken. That's fine.
• F6 (#1965): now this PR's to fix. See finding 2.

Findings:

1. must. CI Test / Python 1/4 fails at this head, and this PR causes it. The failing test is tests/test_savings_credit_only_receipt_properties.py:508, test_stopping_pension_credit_payments_ends_the_pension_credit_capital_test, from main. Its case is £12,000 of savings plus £5,000 of other property, with expectations written for full value. I reproduced the failure at this head (it gets 621.816, not 601.02). It passes at 976ec91fe.

   • Under reg 19 the property is £4,500, so PC capital is £16,500. That is still over £16,000, so the test's point (no CTR) holds.
   • Deemed income is (16,500 − 10,000) / 500 = 13, so £13 a week. Income falls from £254 to £253, so the savings credit is 0.6 × 29.93 − 0.4 × (253 − 238) = £11.958 a week, or £621.82 a year. The engine agrees.
   • Update the comment and two expectations: 601.02 → 621.82, and council_tax_reduction_assessable_capital 17,000 → 16,500. The stopped branch is unaffected, because it uses savings only.

2. must (my F6, now on this PR). uc_assessable_capital.py subtracts disregarded company holdings at full value, while this PR counts corporate_wealth at 90%. That happens both in household_uc_pool_company_holdings (capped at full corporate_wealth) and in own_holdings against reported capital.

   • Probes on this head merged into current main (the merge is clean): a single UC claimant who stands as sole owner of a trading company, with a £10,000 holding and no company capital.

     Case	This PR on main	Expected
     savings £5,000, corporate_wealth £10,000	£4,000	£5,000
     savings £5,000, corporate_wealth £20,000	£13,000	£5,000 + 90% × £10,000 = £14,000

     Main alone gives £5,000 and £15,000. So the reg 77(2) disregard now takes £1,000 of savings with it.

   • Fix: take the holding off at the rate its source was counted at, 1 − sale_expenses.rate, when corporate_wealth is in UC's sale-expense list. Cap it at the valued corporate_wealth. Do this in the pool and, if reported capital is taken as already valued, against reported capital too.

   • Main's own #1965 tests already catch it. On this head merged into main, 8 of the 26 cases in tests/policy/baseline/finance/benefit/family/universal_credit/company/uc_company_analogous_business.yaml fail. Three properties in tests/test_uc_company_owner_properties.py fail too: test_household_capital_is_allocated_and_conserved_across_benefit_units, test_disregarded_holdings_count_for_no_benefit_unit and test_capital_and_earnings_identities.

   • Five of the eight failing YAML cases are the holding at full value: the cases at lines 114, 152, 329, 459 and 616. For example, in the property company case at line 114 (savings £2,000, a £90,000 holding, company capital £120,000), the expected £122,000 comes out as £120,000. That's 2,000 + 81,000 − 90,000, floored at nil, plus 120,000.

   • The other three (lines 210, 247 and 275) have no disregarded holding. There corporate_wealth simply counts at 90%, which is this PR's intended change, so they only need new expectations.

   • The cases at lines 182 and 297 pass only because the nil floor absorbs the same 10% gap, so the bug reaches further than the failures show.

   • CI at this head was cut before #1965 merged, so it can't show any of this.

   • Add my two cases above as tests too.

3. should. There's still no guard against a sale-expense list naming a source that no capital list counts. That is exactly how #1974 silently undoes this PR.

   • My earlier suggestion (sale_expenses.sources ⊆ capital.sources) would trip on UC, whose sale list names owned_land while UC capital omits it.
   • A version that works: assert that every name in each sale_expenses.sources is in at least one programme's capital.sources.
   • The current check at tests/test_capital_valuation_properties.py:178 intersects with counted, so it can't see a stale name.

4. should (merge order, still live). At these heads, a #1969 + #1974 tree gives £5,000 savings + corporate_wealth £12,000 = £17,000 for UC and IS, and for PC at 70. This PR alone gives £15,800. Either land #2131 retargeted to main (it contains this PR and #1974) and close the other two, or land all three back to back with #2131 green first.

5. should (body, my F3). "A few records carry each figure" still gives top-record shares (35-78%, 69-78%, 95-97%) and record counts. The poverty bullet still gives "56 person records in 36 benefit units", "97% of the weight" and the median gain. Read against the table, that's record-level weighted detail. Keep the caveat and drop the numbers. The table is also from before the 10/12 merges, as the body says, so mark it as superseded rather than leaving it as the PR's impact.

What I checked:

• Merge resolutions. --remerge-diff on a8857439d, 503bebb4a and b5416775. The conflicts in uprating_indices.yaml and the uc_assessable_capital docstring were resolved keeping both sides.
• New CTR expectations, by hand. 18,000 capital, then (18,000 − 10,000) / 500 = 16 × £52 = £832, then 13,500 − 186 + 832 = 14,146, then 933.816 − 0.4 × 1,770 = 225.82. All match.
• Tests. I ran the capital-valuation, PC reported-capital, stock-period, share-component, wealth-component, projection-horizon and savings-credit-only property files, code_health, and #1965's two company-owner files. I also ran the YAML under gov/dwp, finance/benefit, household/wealth and gov/local_authorities.
  • At this head: 1 failed (finding 1) and 2,334 passed; YAML 1,879 passed.
  • Merged into current main (the merge is clean): 4 failed (finding 1, plus the three #1965 properties) and 2,379 passed; YAML 8 failed (finding 2) and 1,970 passed. Current main 714b1438c on the same set: all 2,363 pass, and YAML 1,964 pass.
• Lint. ruff check and ruff format --check on the 13 changed Python files: clean.
• CI at 1efee62b. Every check passes except Test / Python 1/4, which fails on finding 1 only (1 failed, 1,415 passed).
• Not checked. The Enhanced FRS impact at this head; I have no data access.

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[MaxGhenis]

Status at a7d8988 (merges main e2ea328):

• UC capital: a reported financial-capital figure replaces the whole capital stock, so second-home and non-residential property drop out #2439 reconciled. UC now has one 10% parameter, capital.sale_expenses.rate, which replaces property_sale_cost_rate. It is used by main's property path and by the financial pool, where corporate_wealth (shares) now counts at 90%.
• Model Universal Credit reg 77 for owner-managers of a company #1965 interaction. This PR lands second, so it applies the reg 49 factor to reg 77 holdings exactly once. Holdings leave the pool, the override floor and a complete override at 90%, and leave a recorded benunit_reported_capital total in full, because that total is used unvalued.
• Tests from main that assumed full-value shares are rewritten from the law: the reg 77 company cases, the property-capital and mock suites, the company-override conservation identities, and the savings-credit-only Pension Credit cases (£16,500 of capital; savings credit £621.82). This also fixes the earlier Test / Python 1/4 failure.
• Local results. 364 capital, company and property pytest cases pass, as do the 540 related YAML cases. The full local suites and a fresh real impact run against e2ea328 are queued behind the Route A host reservation, which ends 2026-10-21 04:00Z.
• Review. An independent GPT-6.1 Sol review of this head is dispatched (20261019-163419-pr1969-review-v3) and will run when the Codex lanes reopen at 2026-10-20 01:04Z.

The target is to land before the triple-lock re-certification (~26 Oct). The impact table in the description will be refreshed from the new runs.

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

[github-actions]

Aggregate impact on certified data: pass

Base 582b86315c against head 31591a1f68, both on enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5 (policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1, sha256 056e80fd8e91), fiscal years 2025-26 to 2031-32. Each year is a full microsimulation run on each side.

Checks: 0 broken by this change, 1 failing on both sides, 0 fixed. Moves flagged for review: 188 (thresholds in report_spec.yaml; a flag does not fail the job).

Workflow run and full report

Notes

• In the years a figure from fewer than 10 records is suppressed (spending.disabled_students_allowance), every total containing it, and the decile incomes, are rebuilt from their other components, so no published total includes it. Those totals are marked †. A change is withheld where the two sides leave out different figures and can't be lined up.

Moves flagged for review

Measure	Year	Base	Head	Change
Universal Credit	2030-31	£89.03bn	£90.51bn	+£1.49bn
Universal Credit	2029-30	£87.61bn	£88.94bn	+£1.32bn
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household	2029-30	£48,027	£48,649	+£622
Universal Credit	2031-32	£90.35bn	£91.47bn	+£1.12bn
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household	2030-31	£49,181	£49,494	+£312
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household	2031-32	£38,492	£38,733	+£241
Universal Credit	2027-28	£84.93bn	£85.50bn	+£577.9m
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household	2029-30	£37,221	£37,433	+£212
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household	2031-32	£62,893	£63,235	+£342
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household	2028-29	£28,983	£29,139	+£156
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household	2031-32	£44,926	£45,168	+£241
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household	2031-32	£50,036	£50,299	+£264
Decile 9: mean household_net_income per household	2026-27	£81,992	£81,560	-£432
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household	2031-32	£77,578	£77,171	-£407
Universal Credit	2028-29	£86.69bn	£87.20bn	+£516.8m
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household	2026-27	£70,356	£70,719	+£363
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	2031-32	1,686k	1,726k	+40.7k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children	2029-30	23.2%	22.8%	-0.47pp
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household	2030-31	£75,797	£75,473	-£324
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household	2030-31	£37,811	£37,972	+£160
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household	2029-30	£74,351	£74,038	-£314
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household	2029-30	£29,330	£29,452	+£122
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children	2029-30	21.6%	21.2%	-0.41pp
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children	2029-30	3,542k	3,470k	-71.3k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children	2029-30	3,298k	3,235k	-62.6k
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household	2027-28	£28,705	£28,813	+£108
Universal Credit	2026-27	£83.11bn	£83.48bn	+£370.3m
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children	2031-32	23.2%	23.6%	+0.37pp
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children	2030-31	31.6%	31.2%	-0.36pp
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household	2026-27	£29,102	£28,998	-£104
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	2031-32	14.6%	14.9%	+0.35pp
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household	2029-30	£43,435	£43,292	-£143
Tax-Free Childcare	2027-28	1,028k	1,011k	-16.8k
Tax-Free Childcare	2026-27	1,028k	1,011k	-16.8k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children	2031-32	3,565k	3,622k	+56.8k
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household	2026-27	£35,807	£35,918	+£111
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children	2027-28	23.2%	22.9%	-0.31pp
Universal Credit	2029-30	6,395k	6,493k	+97.9k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone	2031-32	11,879k	12,058k	+179.8k
Government balance, each receipt once	2030-31	£501.23bn	£499.71bn	-£1.52bn

148 more flags are in the report artifact.

Receipts by tax head

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
TV licence fee	-£0.2m	-£0.2m	-£0.2m	-£0.2m	-£80,053	-£80,413	-£6,209

Spending by benefit and service

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Pension Credit	+£1.0m	+£1.1m	+£1.0m	+£0.7m	+£0.7m	+£0.7m	+£0.6m
Winter Fuel Payment	+£6,040	0	0	0	0	0	0
Universal Credit	+£225.7m	+£370.3m	+£577.9m	+£516.8m	+£1.32bn	+£1.49bn	+£1.12bn
Housing Benefit	+£0.9m	+£0.8m	+£0.3m	+£2.8m	+£0.6m	+£30.8m	+£43.8m
Council Tax Reduction	+£0.8m	+£0.2m	+£0.9m	+£1.0m	-£20,650	-£25,929	-£0.3m
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related)	+£4.4m	+£0.9m	+£1.0m	+£3.5m	+£1.4m	+£1.4m	+£1.6m
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based)	+£13,693	0	0	0	0	0	0
Income Support	+£44,469	0	0	0	0	0	0
Scottish Child Payment	0	0	0	0	+£5.9m	+£6.1m	+£4.9m
Tax-Free Childcare	-£0.9m	-£1.3m	-£1.3m	0	-£1.5m	-£10.3m	-£10.6m
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed

Caseloads

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Pension Credit	+975	+2.4k	+967	+1.2k	+445	+457	+45
Winter Fuel Payment	+30	0	0	0	0	0	0
Universal Credit	+31.5k	+44.0k	+47.0k	+46.7k	+97.9k	+92.4k	+69.2k
Housing Benefit	+94	+87	0	+198	0	+3.1k	+5.0k
Council Tax Reduction	+99	-76	+551	+553	0	0	-54
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related)	+317	0	0	+190	0	0	0
Scottish Child Payment	0	0	0	0	+3.8k	+3.8k	+3.0k
Tax-Free Childcare	-1.3k	-16.8k	-16.8k	0	-4.3k	-12.1k	-11.6k
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed

Government balance, each component counted once

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Government receipts, each component once	-£0.2m	-£0.2m	-£0.2m	-£0.2m	-£80,053	-£80,413	-£6,209
Government spending	+£231.9m †	+£372.0m †	+£579.9m †	+£524.8m †	+£1.33bn †	+£1.52bn †	+£1.16bn †
Government balance, each receipt once	-£232.1m †	-£372.2m †	-£580.1m †	-£525.0m †	-£1.33bn †	-£1.52bn †	-£1.16bn †

Model totals

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
gov_tax	-£0.2m	-£0.2m	-£0.2m	-£0.2m	-£80,053	-£80,413	-£6,209
household_tax	-£0.2m	-£0.2m	-£0.2m	-£0.2m	-£80,053	-£80,413	-£6,209
pre_budget_change_household_tax	-£0.2m	-£0.2m	-£0.2m	-£0.2m	-£80,053	-£80,413	-£6,209
gov_spending	+£231.9m †	+£372.0m †	+£579.9m †	+£524.8m †	+£1.33bn †	+£1.52bn †	+£1.16bn †
household_benefits	+£231.9m †	+£372.0m †	+£579.9m †	+£524.8m †	+£1.33bn †	+£1.52bn †	+£1.16bn †
gov_balance	-£232.1m †	-£372.2m †	-£580.1m †	-£525.0m †	-£1.33bn †	-£1.52bn †	-£1.16bn †

Household income totals

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Household net income	+£232.1m †	+£372.2m †	+£580.1m †	+£525.0m †	+£1.33bn †	+£1.52bn †	+£1.16bn †
Household net income (HBAI definition)	+£231.9m	+£371.9m	+£579.8m	+£522.9m	+£1.33bn	+£1.52bn	+£1.16bn

Poverty rates

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone	-0.02pp	-0.02pp	-0.08pp	-0.09pp	-0.16pp	-0.09pp	-0.08pp
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children	-0.04pp	-0.04pp	-0.21pp	-0.24pp	-0.41pp	-0.22pp	-0.17pp
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	-0.02pp	-0.02pp	-0.05pp	-0.06pp	-0.11pp	-0.06pp	-0.06pp
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	-0.00pp	-0.00pp	-0.00pp	-0.00pp	0	-0.02pp	-0.03pp
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone	-0.01pp	-0.11pp	-0.11pp	-0.06pp	-0.15pp	-0.16pp	-0.12pp
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children	-0.02pp	-0.30pp	-0.27pp	-0.14pp	-0.29pp	-0.30pp	-0.15pp
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	-0.01pp	-0.08pp	-0.08pp	-0.04pp	-0.15pp	-0.16pp	-0.13pp
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	-0.00pp	-0.00pp	0	-0.00pp	0	-0.01pp	-0.03pp
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone	-0.02pp	-0.08pp	-0.11pp	-0.09pp	-0.13pp	-0.06pp	+0.25pp
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children	-0.04pp	-0.23pp	-0.31pp	-0.22pp	-0.47pp	-0.16pp	+0.37pp
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	-0.02pp	-0.06pp	-0.07pp	-0.06pp	-0.07pp	-0.06pp	+0.19pp
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	-0.00pp	0	+0.00pp	+0.00pp	+0.05pp	+0.05pp	+0.35pp
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone	-0.03pp	-0.09pp	-0.03pp	-0.05pp	-0.16pp	-0.18pp	-0.12pp
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children	-0.05pp	-0.25pp	-0.11pp	-0.13pp	-0.29pp	-0.36pp	-0.17pp
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	-0.03pp	-0.06pp	-0.03pp	-0.04pp	-0.17pp	-0.16pp	-0.13pp
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	+0.00pp	-0.00pp	+0.07pp	-0.00pp	+0.04pp	-0.01pp	-0.03pp

People in poverty

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone	-12.8k	-12.8k	-55.6k	-63.4k	-109.9k	-62.4k	-56.4k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children	-5.6k	-6.2k	-31.9k	-35.7k	-62.6k	-33.5k	-25.8k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	-7.1k	-6.6k	-23.7k	-27.7k	-47.3k	-26.9k	-27.0k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	-8	-19	-19	-19	0	-2.0k	-3.7k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone	-8.2k	-77.8k	-77.8k	-40.8k	-109.3k	-116.6k	-82.9k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children	-3.3k	-45.2k	-41.2k	-21.9k	-43.9k	-46.2k	-23.3k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	-4.8k	-32.4k	-36.6k	-18.9k	-65.4k	-68.7k	-55.9k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	-94	-87	0	-8	0	-1.7k	-3.7k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone	-12.2k	-58.4k	-74.9k	-59.8k	-94.2k	-42.8k	+179.8k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children	-5.7k	-34.8k	-46.7k	-34.0k	-71.3k	-23.9k	+56.8k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	-6.5k	-23.6k	-28.6k	-26.1k	-29.0k	-25.1k	+82.3k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	-8	0	+508	+264	+6.1k	+6.2k	+40.7k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone	-18.0k	-65.0k	-22.0k	-38.3k	-113.0k	-127.2k	-88.5k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children	-7.1k	-37.1k	-16.1k	-19.9k	-43.9k	-55.6k	-26.2k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	-10.9k	-27.5k	-13.8k	-18.4k	-73.1k	-70.2k	-58.6k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	+74	-455	+7.8k	-8	+4.0k	-1.4k	-3.7k

Inequality

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Gini coefficient, equivalised HBAI income before housing costs	-0.0001	-0.0002	-0.0004	-0.0004	-0.0007	-0.0007	-0.0004

Mean household net income in each side's own deciles

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household	+£12 †	-£25 †	-£2.83 †	+£51 †	-£55 †	-£8.28 †	+£33 †
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household	+£44 †	-£104 †	+£108 †	+£156 †	+£122 †	+£75 †	-£20 †
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household	+£8.79 †	+£111 †	+£19 †	-£45 †	+£212 †	+£160 †	+£241 †
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household	-£19 †	+£35 †	+£53 †	-£9.72 †	-£143 †	+£105 †	+£241 †
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household	+£6.15 †	+£65 †	+£49 †	+£98 †	+£622 †	+£312 †	+£264 †
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household	+£4.63 †	+£6.57 †	+£40 †	-£71 †	-£36 †	+£57 †	+£44 †
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household	+£1.03 †	-£0.91 †	-£11 †	-£12 †	+£46 †	-£8.25 †	+£342 †
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household	+£4.60 †	+£363 †	-£0.45 †	+£25 †	-£314 †	-£324 †	-£407 †
Decile 9: mean household_net_income per household	+£2.59 †	-£432 †	+£0.83 †	+£3.83 †	-£0.54 †	-£0.53 †	-£0.56 †
Decile 10: mean household_net_income per household	+£0.36 †	+£0.21 †	+£0.36 †	+£0.36 †	+£0.36 †	+£0.36 †	+£0.37 †

Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance)

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp	-£2.1m	-£3.2m	-£3.7m	-£3.0m	-£7.1m	-£3.5m	-£4.5m
Raise higher rate by 1pp	-£5,510	+£7	-£0.1m	-£0.2m	-£0.8m	+£0.6m	-£0.1m
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year	+£2.0m	+£2.1m	+£3.2m	+£2.8m	+£3.3m	+£3.0m	+£1.6m
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child	+£0.5m	+£7,725	-£83	+£10,463	+£31,763	+£1.1m	+£0.9m
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%	-£186.2m	-£452.4m	-£526.9m	-£453.8m	-£645.8m	-£471.2m	-£428.2m
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%	-£2.9m	-£4.8m	-£7.2m	-£6.9m	-£15.6m	-£9.6m	-£10.5m
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp	+£79	+£87	+£10	+£19	-£12	+£48	-£73
Raise additional rate by 3pp	+£0	-£0	+£0	-£0	0	+£0	-£0
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%	-£8.4m	-£22.5m	-£32.9m	-£31.3m	-£65.5m	-£52.7m	-£41.1m
Raise the State Pension by 10%	-£4.5m	+£0.9m	+£1.4m	+£1.6m	+£0.5m	+£2.7m	+£3.6m

Standard reforms: change in each reform's target

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%: change in universal_credit	+£183.4m	+£450.2m	+£526.1m	+£452.9m	+£645.1m	+£471.2m	+£428.2m
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%: change in universal_credit	+£8.4m	+£22.8m	+£33.1m	+£31.4m	+£65.0m	+£52.8m	+£41.3m

Household net income by decile

Mean change in household net income per household, and as a share of the decile's base income; households stay in the base run's deciles.

Base decile	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Decile 1	+£25 (+0.1%)	+£17 (+0.1%)	+£60 (+0.3%)	+£98 (+0.5%)	+£164 (+0.9%)	+£165 (+0.9%)	+£85 (+0.5%)
Decile 2	+£8 (+0.0%)	+£62 (+0.2%)	+£64 (+0.2%)	+£10 (+0.0%)	+£42 (+0.1%)	+£47 (+0.2%)	+£37 (+0.1%)
Decile 3	+£12 (+0.0%)	+£9 (+0.0%)	+£16 (+0.0%)	+£8 (+0.0%)	+£8 (+0.0%)	+£9 (+0.0%)	+£10 (+0.0%)
Decile 4	+£5 (+0.0%)	+£7 (+0.0%)	+£7 (+0.0%)	+£8 (+0.0%)	+£15 (+0.0%)	+£76 (+0.2%)	+£75 (+0.2%)
Decile 5	+£5 (+0.0%)	+£4 (+0.0%)	+£10 (+0.0%)	+£9 (+0.0%)	+£151 (+0.3%)	+£144 (+0.3%)	+£140 (+0.3%)
Decile 6	+£5 (+0.0%)	+£6 (+0.0%)	+£6 (+0.0%)	+£3 (+0.0%)	+£13 (+0.0%)	+£12 (+0.0%)	+£6 (+0.0%)
Decile 7	+£3 (+0.0%)	+£3 (+0.0%)	+£3 (+0.0%)	+£3 (+0.0%)	+£2 (+0.0%)	+£2 (+0.0%)	+£3 (+0.0%)
Decile 8	+£3 (+0.0%)	+£5 (+0.0%)	+£5 (+0.0%)	+£6 (+0.0%)	+£2 (+0.0%)	+£2 (+0.0%)	+£1 (+0.0%)
Decile 9	+£5 (+0.0%)	+£4 (+0.0%)	+£4 (+0.0%)	+£4 (+0.0%)	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change
Decile 10	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change
all	+£7 (+0.0%)	+£12 (+0.0%)	+£18 (+0.0%)	+£17 (+0.0%)	+£42 (+0.1%)	+£48 (+0.1%)	+£36 (+0.1%)

Year	People gaining over £1	People losing over £1
2025-26	3.6%	0.0%
2026-27	3.6%	0.0%
2027-28	3.8%	0.0%
2028-29	3.7%	0.0%
2029-30	3.8%	0.0%
2030-31	3.6%	0.0%
2031-32	3.5%	0.0%

No change in any year: components the model counts twice; population.

Checks failing on both base and head (1)

• VAT is never negative (sign:vat): 2025-26: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-54,797,972 in total; 2026-27: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-56,271,349 in total; 2027-28: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-57,609,146 in total

Counted-once check

Each of 84 components was raised by £1 per unit in 2026-27, and every head of its totals was read household by household: its own head must rise by exactly £1, no other tax head may move, no other benefit may rise, and the model's own total must move by what its heads moved. A head that breaks a rule is measured again twice: with every other head held at its baseline value, and with every other head held at its value after the first £1 while the component rises again. It fails where either still shows the response. 0 failed; 0 were skipped.

• declared double count corporate_sdlt is still contained in expected_sdlt (coefficient 1.000; Corporate SDLT is counted twice in household and government tax totals #2159)

Provenance

Side	Commit	Runtime	Environment hash	Partition hash	Time
base	main 582b86315c	uk 2.146.1 (files 792e7aaf1a15), core 3.33.2, py 3.13.16 aarch64	5d40da9d9749	f210f83d5be4	1458.37s
head	#1969 merged into main 31591a1f68	uk 2.146.1 (files ca50dc0833fd), core 3.33.2, py 3.13.16 aarch64	5d40da9d9749	f210f83d5be4	1486.04s

Dataset: hf://policyengine/policyengine-uk-data-private/enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5@2526edbbb687a3b54dbb11272e5389e4b62d2ac2, sha256 056e80fd8e9151d78f432a25cde863340baee81304c6216a37fb575ce8563784 (verified on both sides), policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1.

Receipts by tax head: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Income tax	£299.29bn	£319.01bn	£336.47bn	£351.62bn	£367.17bn	£385.29bn	£403.59bn
National Insurance (employee and self-employed)	£52.58bn	£54.94bn	£56.75bn	£58.48bn	£60.62bn	£62.57bn	£65.03bn
National Insurance (employer)	£152.64bn	£159.18bn	£164.14bn	£168.73bn	£176.11bn	£181.72bn	£188.90bn
Employer NI change borne by capital	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Employer NI change borne by consumers	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Capital gains tax	£12.62bn	£13.06bn	£13.55bn	£14.04bn	£14.54bn	£15.09bn	£15.65bn
Student loan repayments	£7.83bn	£8.12bn	£8.35bn	£8.56bn	£8.79bn	£9.04bn	£9.38bn
VAT	£253.71bn	£260.53bn	£266.72bn	£273.14bn	£279.83bn	£286.71bn	£293.71bn
Change in VAT from its baseline	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
VAT on private school fees	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Fuel duties	£24.53bn	£24.64bn	£26.64bn	£26.69bn	£26.42bn	£25.76bn	£26.35bn
Alcohol duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Tobacco duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Vehicle excise duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
TV licence fee	£4.28bn	£4.43bn	£4.44bn	£4.46bn	£4.48bn	£4.51bn	£4.53bn
Council tax	£49.56bn	£52.45bn	£55.78bn	£59.39bn	£62.98bn	£66.74bn	£70.70bn
High value council tax surcharge	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.48bn	£0.49bn	£0.51bn	£0.52bn
Northern Ireland domestic rates	£0.55bn	£0.58bn	£0.61bn	£0.63bn	£0.67bn	£0.70bn	£0.73bn
Business rates	£31.73bn	£31.73bn	£31.73bn	£31.73bn	£31.73bn	£31.73bn	£31.73bn
Stamp duty land tax (own purchases, and corporate until the	£10.06bn	£10.56bn	£10.98bn	£11.40bn	£11.81bn	£12.23bn	£12.64bn
Land transaction tax (Wales)	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Land and buildings transaction tax (Scotland)	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn
Unspecified tax change borne by capital	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Unspecified tax change borne by consumers	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Wealth tax	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Wealth tax excluding the main residence	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Land value tax	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Carbon tax	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn

Spending by benefit and service: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
State Pension	£122.15bn	£126.64bn	£127.57bn	£129.47bn	£133.29bn	£137.24bn	£141.32bn
Pension Credit	£6.69bn	£7.07bn	£7.06bn	£7.13bn	£7.26bn	£7.39bn	£7.49bn
Winter Fuel Payment	£1.70bn	£1.68bn	£1.59bn	£1.58bn	£1.57bn	£1.55bn	£1.52bn
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland)	£0.19bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.21bn	£0.21bn	£0.22bn	£0.22bn
Universal Credit	£79.04bn	£83.48bn	£85.50bn	£87.20bn	£88.94bn	£90.51bn	£91.47bn
Housing Benefit	£8.59bn	£8.93bn	£9.19bn	£9.34bn	£9.61bn	£9.90bn	£10.20bn
Council Tax Reduction	£1.99bn	£2.03bn	£2.08bn	£2.13bn	£2.18bn	£2.23bn	£2.29bn
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related)	£2.12bn	£2.18bn	£2.23bn	£2.28bn	£2.33bn	£2.39bn	£2.45bn
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based)	£5.22bn	£5.36bn	£5.49bn	£5.62bn	£5.76bn	£5.90bn	£6.04bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based)	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based)	£0.29bn	£0.30bn	£0.30bn	£0.31bn	£0.32bn	£0.33bn	£0.33bn
Income Support	£0.12bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Working Tax Credit	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Child Tax Credit	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Incapacity Benefit	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Personal Independence Payment	£27.05bn	£28.19bn	£28.94bn	£29.64bn	£30.37bn	£31.11bn	£31.87bn
Disability Living Allowance	£7.52bn	£7.83bn	£8.04bn	£8.24bn	£8.44bn	£8.65bn	£8.86bn
Attendance Allowance	£8.71bn	£9.08bn	£9.32bn	£9.55bn	£9.78bn	£10.02bn	£10.26bn
Carer's Allowance	£4.50bn	£4.69bn	£4.81bn	£4.93bn	£5.05bn	£5.17bn	£5.29bn
Carer Support Payment (Scotland)	£0.31bn	£0.32bn	£0.33bn	£0.34bn	£0.35bn	£0.36bn	£0.36bn
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland)	£0.00bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn
Severe Disablement Allowance	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit	£0.51bn	£0.52bn	£0.53bn	£0.54bn	£0.56bn	£0.57bn	£0.59bn
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme	£0.61bn	£0.62bn	£0.64bn	£0.65bn	£0.67bn	£0.69bn	£0.70bn
War Widow's or Widower's Pension	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Child Benefit	£16.23bn	£16.91bn	£17.32bn	£17.73bn	£18.16bn	£18.60bn	£19.04bn
Scottish Child Payment	£0.50bn	£0.52bn	£0.53bn	£0.55bn	£0.56bn	£0.58bn	£0.58bn
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual)	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Healthy Start vouchers	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn
Maternity Allowance	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Statutory Maternity Pay	£3.32bn	£3.41bn	£3.49bn	£3.57bn	£3.66bn	£3.75bn	£3.84bn
Statutory Paternity Pay	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Statutory Sick Pay	£1.13bn	£1.16bn	£1.19bn	£1.22bn	£1.25bn	£1.28bn	£1.31bn
Sure Start Maternity Grant	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn
Bereavement Support Payment	£0.67bn	£0.69bn	£0.70bn	£0.72bn	£0.74bn	£0.76bn	£0.78bn
Tax-Free Childcare	£0.55bn	£0.56bn	£0.57bn	£0.58bn	£0.60bn	£0.60bn	£0.58bn
Extended childcare entitlement	£2.66bn	£3.14bn	£3.23bn	£3.30bn	£3.38bn	£3.47bn	£3.55bn
Universal childcare entitlement	£3.32bn	£3.59bn	£3.69bn	£3.78bn	£3.88bn	£3.99bn	£4.08bn
Targeted childcare entitlement	£0.57bn	£0.60bn	£0.62bn	£0.63bn	£0.65bn	£0.66bn	£0.67bn
Care to Learn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Childcare Grant	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Parents' Learning Allowance	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn
Adult Dependants' Grant	£0.06bn	£0.06bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn
Travel Grant	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
NHS spending	£204.68bn	£205.46bn	£206.22bn	£207.04bn	£207.96bn	£208.89bn	£209.79bn
State education spending	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn
Transport subsidy spending	£25.15bn	£25.25bn	£25.34bn	£25.44bn	£25.55bn	£25.67bn	£25.78bn
Cost-of-living support payment	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Energy Bills Rebate	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Basic income	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Disability basic income	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Other public spending budget change	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn

Caseloads: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
State Pension	11,308k	11,208k	10,906k	10,812k	10,860k	10,908k	10,955k
Pension Credit	1,492k	1,492k	1,479k	1,460k	1,460k	1,457k	1,453k
Winter Fuel Payment	7,092k	7,011k	6,601k	6,517k	6,493k	6,381k	6,254k
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland)	806k	807k	807k	805k	809k	812k	816k
Universal Credit	6,403k	6,423k	6,456k	6,466k	6,493k	6,480k	6,441k
Housing Benefit	1,254k	1,252k	1,254k	1,240k	1,245k	1,250k	1,254k
Council Tax Reduction	3,186k	3,211k	3,225k	3,245k	3,264k	3,280k	3,293k
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related)	187k	188k	188k	189k	190k	190k	191k
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based)	722k	724k	727k	730k	733k	737k	740k
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based)	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based)	67k	67k	68k	68k	68k	69k	69k
Income Support	25k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Working Tax Credit	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Child Tax Credit	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Incapacity Benefit	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Personal Independence Payment	3,581k	3,595k	3,608k	3,623k	3,639k	3,655k	3,671k
Disability Living Allowance	1,296k	1,301k	1,306k	1,311k	1,317k	1,323k	1,329k
Attendance Allowance	1,701k	1,708k	1,714k	1,721k	1,729k	1,736k	1,744k
Carer's Allowance	1,038k	1,042k	1,046k	1,050k	1,055k	1,059k	1,064k
Carer Support Payment (Scotland)	71k	72k	72k	72k	73k	73k	73k
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland)	0k	72k	72k	72k	73k	73k	73k
Severe Disablement Allowance	4k	4k	4k	4k	4k	4k	4k
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit	137k	138k	139k	139k	140k	140k	141k
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme	94k	94k	94k	95k	95k	95k	96k
War Widow's or Widower's Pension	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Child Benefit	8,136k	8,165k	8,185k	8,215k	8,249k	8,282k	8,314k
Scottish Child Payment	352k	354k	355k	356k	360k	362k	360k
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual)	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Healthy Start vouchers	200k	201k	202k	203k	204k	204k	205k
Maternity Allowance	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Statutory Maternity Pay	334k	335k	336k	338k	339k	341k	342k
Statutory Paternity Pay	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Statutory Sick Pay	182k	183k	183k	184k	185k	186k	186k
Sure Start Maternity Grant	26k	26k	26k	27k	27k	27k	27k
Bereavement Support Payment	98k	98k	99k	99k	100k	100k	101k
Tax-Free Childcare	1,016k	1,011k	1,011k	1,033k	1,029k	1,026k	1,012k
Extended childcare entitlement	665k	671k	675k	677k	682k	686k	687k
Universal childcare entitlement	986k	989k	992k	997k	1,002k	1,013k	1,015k
Targeted childcare entitlement	119k	120k	120k	121k	121k	122k	121k
Care to Learn	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Childcare Grant	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Parents' Learning Allowance	98k	99k	99k	100k	100k	100k	101k
Adult Dependants' Grant	18k	18k	12k	13k	13k	13k	13k
Travel Grant	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Cost-of-living support payment	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Energy Bills Rebate	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Basic income	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Disability basic income	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k

Government balance, each component counted once: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Government receipts, each component once	£899.38bn	£939.24bn	£976.18bn	£1,009.38bn	£1,045.66bn	£1,082.60bn	£1,123.48bn
Government spending	£536.47bn †	£550.82bn †	£557.15bn †	£564.14bn †	£573.48bn †	£582.89bn †	£591.71bn †
Government balance, each receipt once	£362.91bn †	£388.42bn †	£419.03bn †	£445.25bn †	£472.18bn †	£499.71bn †	£531.77bn †
Benefits in household_benefits but not in gov_spending	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn

Model totals: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
gov_tax	£902.51bn	£942.37bn	£979.31bn	£1,012.51bn	£1,048.79bn	£1,085.73bn	£1,126.61bn
household_tax	£496.17bn	£522.66bn	£548.45bn	£570.64bn	£592.85bn	£617.30bn	£644.01bn
pre_budget_change_household_tax	£488.34bn	£514.54bn	£540.10bn	£561.60bn	£583.57bn	£607.75bn	£634.11bn
gov_spending	£536.47bn †	£550.82bn †	£557.15bn †	£564.14bn †	£573.48bn †	£582.89bn †	£591.71bn †
household_benefits	£536.47bn †	£550.82bn †	£557.15bn †	£564.14bn †	£573.48bn †	£582.89bn †	£591.71bn †
gov_balance	£366.04bn †	£391.55bn †	£422.16bn †	£448.38bn †	£475.31bn †	£502.84bn †	£534.90bn †

Components the model counts twice: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
corporate_sdlt, counted again inside expected_sdlt	£3.13bn	£3.13bn	£3.13bn	£3.13bn	£3.13bn	£3.13bn	£3.13bn

Household income totals: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Household market income	£1,657.06bn	£1,719.25bn	£1,771.68bn	£1,821.99bn	£1,872.88bn	£1,930.99bn	£2,001.98bn
Household net income	£1,658.09bn †	£1,706.65bn †	£1,738.50bn †	£1,772.55bn †	£1,809.43bn †	£1,851.24bn †	£1,902.64bn †
Household net income (HBAI definition)	£1,466.65bn	£1,513.43bn	£1,545.69bn	£1,578.60bn	£1,613.42bn	£1,652.64bn	£1,702.73bn

Population: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
People	69,514k	69,778k	70,036k	70,316k	70,626k	70,944k	71,249k
Benefit units	35,247k	35,381k	35,512k	35,654k	35,811k	35,972k	36,127k
Households	31,167k	31,285k	31,401k	31,526k	31,665k	31,808k	31,944k

Poverty rates: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone	15.9%	14.9%	15.4%	15.5%	15.5%	15.7%	15.7%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children	23.7%	20.8%	21.4%	21.2%	21.2%	21.6%	21.5%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	13.7%	13.4%	13.9%	14.0%	14.1%	14.2%	14.2%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	13.7%	13.2%	13.3%	13.5%	13.6%	13.7%	13.6%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone	21.1%	20.5%	21.2%	21.5%	21.8%	22.0%	22.2%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children	32.0%	30.0%	30.7%	31.0%	31.4%	32.0%	32.3%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	19.6%	19.3%	20.1%	20.4%	20.6%	20.9%	20.9%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	12.8%	12.6%	12.6%	13.1%	13.4%	13.4%	13.4%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone	16.9%	16.3%	16.3%	16.5%	16.4%	16.6%	16.9%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children	25.6%	23.3%	22.9%	23.0%	22.8%	23.1%	23.6%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	14.4%	14.3%	14.6%	14.7%	14.8%	15.0%	15.1%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	15.0%	14.9%	14.4%	14.7%	14.3%	14.3%	14.9%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone	21.7%	21.2%	21.3%	21.4%	21.5%	21.7%	21.9%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children	32.9%	31.3%	30.9%	30.9%	31.0%	31.2%	31.8%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	20.0%	19.9%	20.2%	20.3%	20.4%	20.7%	20.8%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	13.7%	13.1%	12.9%	13.0%	12.8%	12.9%	13.2%

People in poverty: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone	11,043k	10,422k	10,801k	10,896k	10,981k	11,158k	11,178k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children	3,554k	3,135k	3,229k	3,217k	3,235k	3,301k	3,309k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	5,855k	5,729k	6,045k	6,136k	6,188k	6,287k	6,294k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	1,634k	1,559k	1,527k	1,543k	1,558k	1,570k	1,575k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone	14,655k	14,288k	14,829k	15,103k	15,382k	15,639k	15,791k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children	4,806k	4,511k	4,635k	4,697k	4,791k	4,893k	4,971k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	8,328k	8,294k	8,738k	8,912k	9,057k	9,207k	9,273k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	1,521k	1,484k	1,456k	1,493k	1,533k	1,539k	1,547k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone	11,768k	11,405k	11,448k	11,601k	11,613k	11,789k	12,058k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children	3,834k	3,503k	3,459k	3,490k	3,470k	3,530k	3,622k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	6,148k	6,136k	6,327k	6,438k	6,501k	6,611k	6,710k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	1,786k	1,766k	1,661k	1,673k	1,642k	1,649k	1,726k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone	15,092k	14,801k	14,934k	15,071k	15,168k	15,386k	15,607k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children	4,941k	4,719k	4,668k	4,695k	4,727k	4,785k	4,890k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	8,520k	8,532k	8,780k	8,899k	8,981k	9,117k	9,198k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	1,631k	1,550k	1,487k	1,477k	1,460k	1,484k	1,519k

Inequality: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Gini coefficient, equivalised HBAI income before housing costs	0.3073	0.3050	0.3062	0.3069	0.3071	0.3077	0.3091

Mean household net income in each side's own deciles: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household	£17,711 †	£17,970 †	£17,931 †	£18,042 †	£18,273 †	£18,498 †	£18,714 †
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household	£28,367 †	£28,998 †	£28,813 †	£29,139 †	£29,452 †	£29,809 †	£30,298 †
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household	£34,638 †	£35,918 †	£36,465 †	£36,974 †	£37,433 †	£37,972 †	£38,733 †
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household	£39,316 †	£40,838 †	£41,811 †	£42,683 †	£43,292 †	£44,130 †	£45,168 †
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household	£44,862 †	£46,215 †	£47,126 †	£47,538 †	£48,649 †	£49,494 †	£50,299 †
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household	£47,935 †	£49,341 †	£50,330 †	£51,103 †	£52,131 †	£53,010 †	£54,249 †
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household	£56,320 †	£57,567 †	£58,461 †	£59,411 †	£60,195 †	£61,612 †	£63,235 †
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household	£69,272 †	£70,719 †	£71,671 †	£72,835 †	£74,038 †	£75,473 †	£77,171 †
Decile 9: mean household_net_income per household	£79,650 †	£81,560 †	£83,193 †	£84,490 †	£86,055 †	£87,569 †	£90,645 †
Decile 10: mean household_net_income per household	£117,618 †	£120,489 †	£122,421 †	£124,553 †	£126,803 †	£129,074 †	£131,887 †

Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance): head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp	£6.21bn	£6.50bn	£6.70bn	£6.90bn	£7.10bn	£7.34bn	£7.61bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp	£3.54bn	£3.82bn	£4.05bn	£4.27bn	£4.49bn	£4.76bn	£4.96bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year	£-3.83bn	£-3.95bn	£-4.03bn	£-4.10bn	£-4.19bn	£-4.29bn	£-2.01bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child	£-2.00bn	£-1.76bn	£-1.64bn	£-1.54bn	£-1.44bn	£-1.34bn	£-1.23bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%	£-20.73bn	£-21.55bn	£-21.98bn	£-22.33bn	£-22.60bn	£-22.80bn	£-23.22bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%	£11.06bn	£11.51bn	£11.83bn	£12.13bn	£12.46bn	£12.80bn	£13.28bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp	£25.01bn	£25.68bn	£26.29bn	£26.92bn	£27.58bn	£28.26bn	£28.95bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp	£2.83bn	£3.07bn	£3.27bn	£3.47bn	£3.67bn	£3.91bn	£4.23bn
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%	£-3.05bn	£-3.19bn	£-3.28bn	£-3.35bn	£-3.44bn	£-3.48bn	£-3.51bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%	£-7.81bn	£-8.06bn	£-7.99bn	£-8.10bn	£-8.36bn	£-8.66bn	£-9.02bn

Standard reforms: change in each reform's target: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp: change in income_tax	£6.36bn	£6.65bn	£6.86bn	£7.07bn	£7.28bn	£7.52bn	£7.80bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp: change in income_tax	£3.55bn	£3.83bn	£4.06bn	£4.28bn	£4.50bn	£4.77bn	£4.97bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year: change in income_tax	£-3.96bn	£-4.10bn	£-4.19bn	£-4.26bn	£-4.36bn	£-4.47bn	£-1.77bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child: change in child_benefit	£2.34bn	£2.15bn	£2.03bn	£1.92bn	£1.82bn	£1.71bn	£1.59bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%: change in universal_credit	£20.71bn	£21.54bn	£21.96bn	£22.32bn	£22.59bn	£22.79bn	£23.21bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%: change in national_insurance	£11.33bn	£11.79bn	£12.13bn	£12.44bn	£12.78bn	£13.13bn	£13.62bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp: change in vat	£25.01bn	£25.68bn	£26.29bn	£26.92bn	£27.58bn	£28.26bn	£28.95bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax	£2.83bn	£3.07bn	£3.27bn	£3.47bn	£3.67bn	£3.91bn	£4.23bn
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%: change in universal_credit	£3.05bn	£3.19bn	£3.28bn	£3.35bn	£3.44bn	£3.48bn	£3.51bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%: change in state_pension	£10.72bn	£11.23bn	£11.37bn	£11.62bn	£12.08bn	£12.54bn	£13.07bn

[MaxGhenis]

UK hub: #1995 (head 3727eb8) now depends on this PR. Its r3 finding 3, the Pension Credit savings-credit exit cliff, is Pension Credit's gross property valuation, which this PR fixes. So #1969 should land first; #1995 will then merge main and add two property boundary cases. This PR's latest review (Subfleet 20261019-181511-pr1969-review-v3b, 2026-10-20 01:43Z) requested changes, and there has been no new head since.

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[MaxGhenis]

Merge-order note from #1974's owner. #1974 (head 6600477, main a8b2848 merged) is being finished for the Budget cut. If it lands first, this PR's next merge of main needs the following, or the 10% sale-expense deduction silently stops applying to shares.

#1974 renames the share-like source in all six capital sources lists from corporate_wealth to share_like_capital. That variable is corporate_wealth as supplied, or its itemised components where they exceed it beyond float32 rounding. On every released dataset it equals corporate_wealth exactly.

Rename in this PR. valued_capital applies the 10% only to a source listed in sale_expenses.sources, so these must change:

• All six sale_expenses/sources.yaml: corporate_wealth becomes share_like_capital.
• Three hardcoded counted_share(p.sale_expenses, "corporate_wealth") calls, in uc_assessable_capital.py, household_uc_pool_company_holdings.py and household_uc_reported_financial_capital.py. Import HOLDINGS_SOURCE from household_uc_company_holding_pool_scale and pass it instead.
• The exact_amount(person.household("corporate_wealth", period)) budgets, in the pool and reported-capital files. Itemise corporate_wealth's share-like components for the means tests #1974 already points main's versions of these lines at HOLDINGS_SOURCE (= "share_like_capital"), so take Itemise corporate_wealth's share-like components for the means tests #1974's side and keep exact_amount around it.

Tests.

• Itemise corporate_wealth's share-like components for the means tests #1974's test_lists_name_share_like_capital_only now also checks any sale_expenses list that exists, and fails if corporate_wealth is still listed there.
• This PR's property oracles that read unit["assets"][source] will raise KeyError: 'share_like_capital'. Map share_like_capital to the household's corporate_wealth.
• Itemise corporate_wealth's share-like components for the means tests #1974's test_components_alone_are_counted expects UC capital of £13,000. Under reg 49 it becomes £1,000 + 90% of £12,000 = £11,800.

If this PR lands first instead, #1974 does the same reconciliation when it merges main. #2131 is then rebuilt on whichever head results.

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