Qualify targeted childcare through Pension Credit only on receipt of a guarantee credit by MaxGhenis · Pull Request #1987 · PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk

MaxGhenis · 2026-10-01T13:49:24Z

Fixes #1956

Summary

Targeted (2-year-old) childcare listed the guarantee_credit amount as a qualifying benefit. This PR lists in_receipt_of_guarantee_credit instead, so the Pension Credit route needs a claim and a payment, as SI 2014/2147 reg 1(2) "eligible child" (a)(ii) needs entitlement.

Main has moved since #1956 was filed. #1896 (merged 2026-10-02) gave guarantee_credit defined_for = is_pension_credit_eligible, so working-age families no longer get a computed guarantee credit. That was the half of #1956 that moved money. What this PR still fixes: a Pension Credit eligible pensioner who does not claim Pension Credit qualifies through the computed amount on main.

in_receipt_of_guarantee_credit (on main from #1909, also read by the pensioner CTR rules) now also requires pension_credit > 0, with or without the Pension Credit freeze. A reform that stops Pension Credit being paid (for example by neutralising pension_credit) left receipt true. In the unreformed model this changes nothing (see impact).

The law

SI 2014/2147 reg 1(2), "eligible child" (text valid from 1 January 2026): a young child "whose parent is entitled to any one or more of the following— ... the guaranteed element of state pension credit under the State Pension Credit Act 2002;" (item (ii)).
SPCA 2002 s.1(2): "A claimant is entitled to state pension credit if— (a) he is in Great Britain; (b) he has attained the qualifying age; and (c) he satisfies— (i) the condition in section 2(1) (guarantee credit); ...". s.4(1A): "A claimant is not entitled to state pension credit if he is a member of a couple the other member of which has not attained the qualifying age" (from 15 May 2019, subject to the SI 2019/37 art 4 saving).
SSAA 1992 s.1(1): no person "shall be entitled to any benefit unless ... he makes a claim for it ... or ... he is treated ... as making a claim for it"; s.1(4)(ab) covers state pension credit, and SPCA s.17(1) construes "entitled" through it.

Household example (2026, North East)

Parent aged 68 with a State Pension of £10,000 and a 2-year-old, not claiming Universal Credit:

	main (`2efc8d8`)	this PR
Minimum guarantee (£12,376 + £3,638.96)	£16,014.96	£16,014.96
Computed `guarantee_credit`	£6,014.96	£6,014.96
Not claiming PC: `pension_credit`	£0	£0
Not claiming PC: eligible / entitlement (child)	true / £5,002.07	false / £0
Not claiming PC: `household_net_income`	£16,428.62	£11,426.55
Claiming PC: eligible / entitlement (child)	true / £5,002.07	true / £5,002.07

Enhanced FRS impact

Measured before main's #2177 and #2552 were merged in; not re-run at ac917d3.

Real runs of origin/main 2efc8d8 and this branch at ad8e55d on enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5 (sha256 e433e532…), one microsimulation per package covering 2025–2030. Weighted totals, float64 sums, exact array comparisons.

Targeted childcare spending, children receiving it, household net income, HBAI income, household benefits, gov spending and balance, council tax reduction, and BHC/AHC poverty are identical in every year 2025–2030. No benefit unit loses or gains an entitlement amount.
Every other saved benefit-unit array is identical, including in_receipt_of_guarantee_credit, Pension Credit and Housing Benefit, so the payment condition changes nothing in the baseline.
targeted_childcare_entitlement_eligible turns false for 68–90 records (23.1k–29.0k weighted benefit units a year: 26.2k in 2025, 29.0k in 2026, 23.1k in 2030). All are Pension Credit eligible pensioners in England who do not claim Pension Credit, with a computed guarantee credit and no 2-year-old, so no entitlement is paid either way.
On Qualify targeted childcare through Pension Credit only on receipt of a guarantee credit #1987's earlier base (da947ee, before Replace generic child and adult flags with each programme's legal definitions #1896) the same route cost £39–42m a year; Replace generic child and adult flags with each programme's legal definitions #1896 removed that.

Scripts and outputs, kept in the author's evidence folder and not in the repo: impact/tce_impact.py (the runs), impact/tce_compare.py → impact/compare.json, impact/eligibility_flag_changes.py → impact/eligibility_flag_changes.txt (the lost-flag breakdown, built from the saved arrays; the script was saved after the first run and re-run with identical output), and out/household.py → out/household_main.json, out/household_branch.json (the household example).

Invariants (Hypothesis, `test_targeted_childcare_guarantee_credit_properties.py`)

Populations mix working-age, pension-age and mixed-age families with a 2-year-old, some with a dependent young person aged 16–19, across the four nations, in 2025, 2026 and 2029.

Qualifying age: no benefit unit whose adults are all below the qualifying age qualifies through the Guarantee Credit route. Fails for the route as filed; holds on main since Replace generic child and adult flags with each programme's legal definitions #1896 and here.
Route identity: eligibility = England and one route open. Since Preserve universal and targeted hours alongside extended childcare #2177 (merged 12 Oct) targeted_childcare_entitlement_eligible is legal eligibility, so standalone take-up (would_claim_targeted_childcare) and eligibility for the working parent entitlement no longer enter it.
Receipt (unreformed): route open exactly when pension_credit and guarantee_credit are both positive; implies a claim and, for the generated families (none reports Pension Credit or pension-age Housing Benefit, so none has the SI 2019/37 saving), that the claimant and any partner are over State Pension age. A dependant aged 18 does not block it (one known family, and YAML Cases 12–13).
Differential vs main: never adds eligibility; removes it exactly for eligible non-claimants with no other route.
Not claiming Pension Credit closes the route and never makes a family eligible. Fails for the filed route and for main; holds here.
Universal Credit criterion: met exactly when Universal Credit is paid and earned income before the work allowance (uc_earned_income_before_work_allowance, Use UC earned income before the work allowance in targeted childcare and local CTR #2552) is within £15,400, SI 2014/2147 reg 1(3)(a). Two known families pin Preserve universal and targeted hours alongside extended childcare #2177 and Use UC earned income before the work allowance in targeted childcare and local CTR #2552: a Universal Credit claimant earning £12,000 who is also eligible for working parent hours qualifies; a £20,000 earner on Universal Credit (£17,920 before the work allowance, £9,400 after in 2026) does not.
A reform that stops Pension Credit payments closes the route, with or without the freeze (fixed examples, not generated).
Under the Pension Credit freeze the route follows the baseline receipt (fixed example, not generated).

A mutation test runs the filed and main routes through the same eligibility formula and checks that each breaks the invariant it was written against.

Tests

targeted_childcare_entitlement_guarantee_credit.yaml: 14 cases. Case 9 is a mixed-age couple without the SI 2019/37 art 4 saving (does not qualify); Case 14 is the same couple with the saving (qualifies: couple minimum guarantee £18,889 + £3,638.96 − State Pension £10,000 = £12,527.96 paid).
in_receipt_of_guarantee_credit.yaml (Key the Housing Benefit Guarantee Credit passport on receipt #1927's six cases) is on main since Key the Housing Benefit Guarantee Credit passport on receipt #1927 merged on 8 Oct, so this PR no longer adds it.
Local at ad8e55d: full YAML suite 2,109 passed; the property file 7 passed (234 s).
Local at ac917d3 (main a45baf5 merged): the property file 7 passed (shrinking off, same examples); DfE and Pension Credit YAML 603 passed; Council Tax Reduction and the Housing Benefit guarantee credit passport YAML 283 passed; the seven other property files that read in_receipt_of_guarantee_credit 31 passed (shrinking off). Reverting Use UC earned income before the work allowance in targeted childcare and local CTR #2552 in the Universal Credit criterion fails the new identity and the £20,000 known family.
Mutants of in_receipt_of_guarantee_credit and the parameter: reverting the parameter entry, dropping the payment term, and making the freeze branch use the current formula each fail a test. Dropping would_claim_pc or is_pension_credit_eligible fails none: under the model's formulas a payment already implies both (pension_credit = entitlement × claim; entitlement and guarantee_credit are defined only for eligible units). They differ only when pension_credit or guarantee_credit is supplied as an input, so the terms stay as a guard.

Known departures (unchanged by this PR)

The SI 2019/37 art 4 saving is inferred from reported Pension Credit or pension-age Housing Benefit (has_mixed_age_couple_pension_credit_saving, from Date the mixed-age couple Pension Credit exclusion and model the SI 2019/37 saving #1940) unless set directly. A saved couple qualifies (Case 14).
The model does not distinguish entitlement from payment. In law they can differ, for example where SI 2002/1792 reg 13 makes a credit under 10p a week unpayable.
The model tests the benefit unit's claimant and partner, not "the child's parent".
would_claim_pc is the claim (a take-up draw in the Enhanced FRS).
Annual eligibility does not apply the statutory guidance A1.4 continuation, so a reform that closes a route overstates first-year losses for children already in a place.

Overlaps

Count only the claimant's and partner's legacy awards in means tests and passports #2027 edits the same parameter file (renames the JSA/ESA entries); whichever merges second keeps both changes.
Date the mixed-age couple Pension Credit exclusion and model the SI 2019/37 saving #1940 (merged) edited the same sentence of the in_receipt_of_guarantee_credit docstring. The merge in 95aed89 keeps this PR's payment check and takes Date the mixed-age couple Pension Credit exclusion and model the SI 2019/37 saving #1940's account of the saving.
Key the Housing Benefit Guarantee Credit passport on receipt #1927 merged on 8 Oct with in_receipt_of_guarantee_credit.yaml.

Review

An independent reviewer approved head 314f457, and a second pass approved the follow-up commit c47e283 (the freeze-path payment check). A merge-only delta review of ad8e55d (the two merges of main) is pending. Their should-fix and nit findings are addressed above or listed under known departures; a follow-up for the same payment check on in_receipt_of_savings_credit_only is tracked separately.

Axiom

axiom: TheAxiomFoundation/rulespec-uk#400 queued (extension comment for reg 1(2) "eligible child" (a)(ii): law, required outputs, review_finding and companion cases G1–G6; SI 2014/2147 reg 1 is not yet in the corpus, so the signed encode waits on ingestion)

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

Reproducer: policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/gov/dfe/targeted_childcare_entitlement/targeted_childcare_entitlement_eligible.yaml, policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/gov/dfe/targeted_childcare_entitlement/targeted_childcare_entitlement_guarantee_credit.yaml, policyengine_uk/tests/test_targeted_childcare_guarantee_credit_properties.py::test_no_family_below_the_qualifying_age_qualifies_through_guarantee_credit, policyengine_uk/tests/test_targeted_childcare_guarantee_credit_properties.py::test_eligibility_is_the_union_of_the_routes, policyengine_uk/tests/test_targeted_childcare_guarantee_credit_properties.py::test_fix_only_removes_the_unpaid_guarantee_credit_route

The 2-year-old entitlement listed the raw guarantee_credit amount as a qualifying benefit. PolicyEngine computes that amount for every benefit unit, so low-income working-age families and pensioners who do not claim Pension Credit qualified through it. SI 2014/2147 reg 1(2) requires the parent to be entitled to the guaranteed element of state pension credit, and entitlement needs the qualifying age (SPCA 2002 s.1(2)(b)) and a claim (SSAA 1992 s.1(1), (4)(ab)). The entry is now in_receipt_of_guarantee_credit (Pension Credit eligible, claims it, guarantee credit positive), the variable #1927 and #1909 add; the file is byte-identical to theirs. Its YAML test is #1927's, also byte-identical. Fixes #1956 Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

…tests with main Main (#1896) now pays Guarantee Credit only within Pension Credit, so the working-age half of #1956 is already fixed there. The targeted childcare route still needs a claim: this branch keys it on in_receipt_of_guarantee_credit, which #1909 put on main. - in_receipt_of_guarantee_credit also requires pension_credit > 0, so a reform that stops Pension Credit being paid ends receipt (review finding: neutralising pension_credit left receipt true). No change in the unreformed model, where a positive guarantee credit for an eligible claimant is always paid. - YAML: below-age cases now assert the minimum guarantee and a zero guarantee credit; add the 17/18-year-old dependant pair. - Properties: compare the route as filed, main's route and the fix; add dependent young people and childcare take-up to the generator, a payment test and a mutation check that the earlier routes break the invariants. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

…; fix saving and Savings Credit wording Law review: the docs now separate the legal rule (entitlement: qualifying age, SPCA s.4(1A) with the SI 2019/37 art 4 saving, a claim) from PolicyEngine's receipt test; the art 4 saving is described as art 4 states it; the Savings Credit comment follows SPCA s.3(1). The receipt YAML test is restored to #1927's blob (fe4b686) so the two PRs do not conflict on it. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

…ent departure plainly Independent review: with gov.contrib.freeze_pension_credit on, the receipt returned the baseline receipt without checking the payment, so a reform that also stopped Pension Credit left receipt true. The freeze branch now requires pension_credit > 0 as well; nothing changes while the frozen award is paid. The docs say the model does not distinguish entitlement from payment instead of claiming they differ only at the 10p rule. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Resolve the in_receipt_of_guarantee_credit conflict with #1940: keep this branch's payment check (also under the freeze) and take main's account of the SI 2019/37 art 4 saving, which the model now infers. Update the tests and docs that said the model omits the saving, and add a case for a saved mixed-age couple with a 2-year-old. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

…-entitlement

Resolve two conflicts: - qualifying_benefits.yaml: keep main's claimant_or_partner_jsa_income and claimant_or_partner_esa_income entries (#2027) with this branch's in_receipt_of_guarantee_credit entry, and describe both rules. - in_receipt_of_guarantee_credit.yaml: take main's copy, which #1927 landed with an updated Case 3 and a saved mixed-age couple case. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

…ving in the docs Address the merge-delta review's nits: - YAML Case 14: the older member is 80, so had reached the qualifying age by 14 May 2019 as SI 2019/37 art 4 requires. The award is unchanged. - The notebook's age requirement now names the art 4 exception. Point the property test's legacy-benefit oracle at claimant_or_partner_jsa_income and claimant_or_partner_esa_income, the entries the parameter lists since #2027. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

…-entitlement

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Since #2177 targeted_childcare_entitlement_eligible is legal eligibility: standalone take-up (would_claim_targeted_childcare) and eligibility for the working parent entitlement no longer remove it. The route-identity and differential oracles still required both, so they failed on every family that does not claim targeted childcare on its own or is eligible for the extended hours. The oracles are now England and at least one route open. The Universal Credit criterion reads earned income before the work allowance since #2552 (SI 2014/2147 reg 1(3)(a)); the union property now checks the criterion against that rule for every generated family, and two known families pin both changes: a Universal Credit claimant also eligible for working parent hours qualifies, and a £20,000 earner on Universal Credit (£17,920 before the work allowance) does not. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

MaxGhenis · 2026-10-23T06:41:11Z

Backlog F hand-off (UK hub build job, 2026-10-23)

Head: ac917d37689f413e8319ae048f64e48dc3cd2aca. I merged origin/main at a45baf5e4 with a merge commit (ada8df198), then added one test-only commit (ac917d376). There is no force-push and the author is unchanged.

Why the two merge-queue properties failed. The cause is #2177 (merged 12 Oct, after this branch's last main merge), not #2552. #2177 made targeted_childcare_entitlement_eligible legal eligibility: it dropped defined_for = "would_claim_targeted_childcare" and the exclusion for extended-entitlement eligibility. The oracles in test_eligibility_is_the_union_of_the_routes and test_fix_only_removes_the_unpaid_guarantee_credit_route still required both conditions. They therefore failed on every family that does not claim targeted childcare on its own, or that is eligible for working parent hours. In the known families, the non-claiming pensioner (row 12) is now eligible. #2552's Universal Credit route was already in the oracle, because the oracle reads the model's own criterion variables.

Change (test_targeted_childcare_guarantee_credit_properties.py only):

The oracles are now England plus at least one route open. Invariant 6 ("not claiming targeted childcare never leaves a family eligible") no longer holds under Preserve universal and targeted hours alongside extended childcare #2177. It is replaced by an explicit Use UC earned income before the work allowance in targeted childcare and local CTR #2552 oracle: the Universal Credit criterion holds exactly when UC > 0 and uc_earned_income_before_work_allowance ≤ £15,400. That oracle is checked for every generated family.
Two new known families:
- A £12,000 earner on UC who is also eligible for working parent hours: qualifies.
- A £20,000 earner on UC: does not qualify. Earned income is £17,920 before the work allowance and £9,400 after it (2026), so this case fails if the work allowance is deducted again.
A mutation check reverted Use UC earned income before the work allowance in targeted childcare and local CTR #2552 in the criterion. It broke the identity, and the £20,000 family became eligible.

Tests at ac917d3 (local, foreground, -n 4, load 35–70):

Tests	Result
The property file	7 passed
DfE and Pension Credit YAML	603 passed
CTR YAML and the HB guarantee credit passport YAML	283 passed
The seven other property files that read `in_receipt_of_guarantee_credit` (CTR ×5, HB passport, savings credit only)	31 passed

Hypothesis shrinking was off for the property runs, with the same examples; it only runs after a failure.

Impact: the Enhanced FRS figures in the body predate the #2177 and #2552 merges and were not re-run at this head. The PR's own code change (parameter and in_receipt_of_guarantee_credit) is unchanged.

Open: CI at this head, and the hub's independent review of the merge plus test delta. I have not merged it or marked it ready.

github-actions · 2026-10-23T07:50:41Z

Aggregate impact on certified data: pass

Base c65bced644 against head 986149fc91, both on enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5 (policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1, sha256 056e80fd8e91), fiscal years 2025-26 to 2031-32. Each year is a full microsimulation run on each side.

Checks: 0 broken by this change, 1 failing on both sides, 0 fixed. Moves flagged for review: 0 (thresholds in report_spec.yaml; a flag does not fail the job).

Workflow run and full report

Notes

In the years a figure from fewer than 10 records is suppressed (spending.disabled_students_allowance), every total containing it, and the decile incomes, are rebuilt from their other components, so no published total includes it. Those totals are marked †. A change is withheld where the two sides leave out different figures and can't be lined up.

Moves flagged for review

None.

Spending by benefit and service

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed

Caseloads

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed

Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance)

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise additional rate by 3pp	0	0	0	0	0	suppressed	suppressed

Standard reforms: change in each reform's target

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax	0	0	0	0	0	suppressed	suppressed

Household net income by decile

No household's net income changes in any year.

No change in any year: receipts by tax head; government balance, each component counted once; model totals; household income totals; population; poverty rates; people in poverty; inequality; mean household net income in each side's own deciles.

Checks failing on both base and head (1)

VAT is never negative (sign:vat): 2025-26: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-54,797,972 in total; 2026-27: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-56,271,349 in total; 2027-28: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-57,609,146 in total

Counted-once check

Each of 84 components was raised by £1 per unit in 2026-27, and every head of its totals was read household by household: its own head must rise by exactly £1, no other tax head may move, no other benefit may rise, and the model's own total must move by what its heads moved. A head that breaks a rule is measured again twice: with every other head held at its baseline value, and with every other head held at its value after the first £1 while the component rises again. It fails where either still shows the response. 0 failed; 0 were skipped.

Provenance

Side	Commit	Runtime	Environment hash	Partition hash	Time
base	main `c65bced644`	uk 2.148.3 (files `d7572c3e5c6c`), core 3.33.2, py 3.13.17 aarch64	`31784e87dc6a`	`d4c1e9f08160`	1518.27s
head	#1987 merged into main `986149fc91`	uk 2.148.3 (files `4cd328308b52`), core 3.33.2, py 3.13.17 aarch64	`31784e87dc6a`	`d4c1e9f08160`	1518.92s

Dataset: hf://policyengine/policyengine-uk-data-private/enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5@2526edbbb687a3b54dbb11272e5389e4b62d2ac2, sha256 056e80fd8e9151d78f432a25cde863340baee81304c6216a37fb575ce8563784 (verified on both sides), policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1.

Receipts by tax head: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Income tax	£299.29bn	£319.01bn	£336.54bn	£351.69bn	£367.24bn	£385.36bn	£403.66bn
National Insurance (employee and self-employed)	£52.58bn	£54.94bn	£56.75bn	£58.48bn	£60.62bn	£62.57bn	£65.03bn
National Insurance (employer)	£152.64bn	£159.18bn	£164.14bn	£168.73bn	£176.11bn	£181.72bn	£188.90bn
Employer NI change borne by capital	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Employer NI change borne by consumers	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Capital gains tax	£12.62bn	£13.06bn	£13.55bn	£14.04bn	£14.54bn	£15.09bn	£15.65bn
Student loan repayments	£7.83bn	£8.12bn	£8.35bn	£8.56bn	£8.79bn	£9.04bn	£9.38bn
VAT	£253.71bn	£260.53bn	£266.72bn	£273.14bn	£279.83bn	£286.71bn	£293.71bn
Change in VAT from its baseline	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
VAT on private school fees	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Fuel duties	£24.53bn	£24.64bn	£26.64bn	£26.69bn	£26.42bn	£25.76bn	£26.35bn
Alcohol duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Tobacco duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Vehicle excise duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
TV licence fee	£4.28bn	£4.43bn	£4.44bn	£4.46bn	£4.48bn	£4.51bn	£4.53bn
Council tax	£49.56bn	£52.45bn	£55.78bn	£59.39bn	£62.98bn	£66.74bn	£70.70bn
High value council tax surcharge	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.48bn	£0.49bn	£0.51bn	£0.52bn
Northern Ireland domestic rates	£0.55bn	£0.58bn	£0.61bn	£0.63bn	£0.67bn	£0.70bn	£0.73bn
Business rates	£31.73bn	£31.73bn	£31.73bn	£31.73bn	£31.73bn	£31.73bn	£31.73bn
Stamp duty land tax on the household's own purchases	£6.93bn	£7.42bn	£7.85bn	£8.26bn	£8.68bn	£9.09bn	£9.51bn
Stamp duty land tax paid by companies	£3.13bn	£3.13bn	£3.13bn	£3.13bn	£3.13bn	£3.13bn	£3.13bn
Land transaction tax (Wales)	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Land and buildings transaction tax (Scotland)	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn
Unspecified tax change borne by capital	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Unspecified tax change borne by consumers	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Wealth tax	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Wealth tax excluding the main residence	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Land value tax	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Carbon tax	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn

Spending by benefit and service: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
State Pension	£122.15bn	£126.64bn	£127.76bn	£129.65bn	£133.46bn	£137.40bn	£141.47bn
Pension Credit	£6.68bn	£7.07bn	£7.09bn	£7.16bn	£7.28bn	£7.42bn	£7.52bn
Winter Fuel Payment	£1.70bn	£1.68bn	£1.59bn	£1.57bn	£1.57bn	£1.55bn	£1.52bn
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland)	£0.19bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.21bn	£0.21bn	£0.22bn	£0.22bn
Universal Credit	£75.54bn	£80.75bn	£83.40bn	£85.21bn	£86.21bn	£87.61bn	£88.91bn
Housing Benefit	£8.59bn	£8.93bn	£9.19bn	£9.33bn	£9.61bn	£9.87bn	£10.15bn
Council Tax Reduction	£1.99bn	£2.03bn	£2.08bn	£2.13bn	£2.18bn	£2.23bn	£2.29bn
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related)	£2.12bn	£2.18bn	£2.23bn	£2.28bn	£2.33bn	£2.39bn	£2.45bn
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based)	£5.22bn	£5.36bn	£5.49bn	£5.62bn	£5.76bn	£5.90bn	£6.04bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based)	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based)	£0.29bn	£0.30bn	£0.30bn	£0.31bn	£0.32bn	£0.33bn	£0.33bn
Income Support	£0.12bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Working Tax Credit	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Child Tax Credit	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Incapacity Benefit	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Personal Independence Payment	£27.05bn	£28.19bn	£29.28bn	£30.02bn	£30.75bn	£31.51bn	£32.28bn
Disability Living Allowance	£7.52bn	£7.83bn	£8.14bn	£8.34bn	£8.55bn	£8.76bn	£8.97bn
Attendance Allowance	£8.71bn	£9.08bn	£9.43bn	£9.67bn	£9.90bn	£10.15bn	£10.40bn
Carer's Allowance	£4.50bn	£4.69bn	£4.87bn	£4.99bn	£5.11bn	£5.23bn	£5.36bn
Carer Support Payment (Scotland)	£0.31bn	£0.32bn	£0.34bn	£0.34bn	£0.35bn	£0.36bn	£0.37bn
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland)	£0.00bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn
Severe Disablement Allowance	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit	£0.51bn	£0.52bn	£0.53bn	£0.54bn	£0.56bn	£0.57bn	£0.59bn
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme	£0.61bn	£0.62bn	£0.64bn	£0.65bn	£0.67bn	£0.69bn	£0.70bn
War Widow's or Widower's Pension	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Child Benefit	£16.23bn	£16.91bn	£17.53bn	£17.96bn	£18.39bn	£18.84bn	£19.29bn
Scottish Child Payment	£0.50bn	£0.52bn	£0.53bn	£0.55bn	£0.56bn	£0.57bn	£0.58bn
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual)	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Healthy Start vouchers	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn
Maternity Allowance	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Statutory Maternity Pay	£3.32bn	£3.41bn	£3.49bn	£3.57bn	£3.66bn	£3.75bn	£3.84bn
Statutory Paternity Pay	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Statutory Sick Pay	£1.13bn	£1.16bn	£1.19bn	£1.22bn	£1.25bn	£1.28bn	£1.31bn
Sure Start Maternity Grant	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn
Bereavement Support Payment	£0.67bn	£0.69bn	£0.70bn	£0.72bn	£0.74bn	£0.76bn	£0.78bn
Tax-Free Childcare	£0.55bn	£0.56bn	£0.57bn	£0.58bn	£0.60bn	£0.61bn	£0.59bn
Extended childcare entitlement	£2.77bn	£3.27bn	£3.36bn	£3.43bn	£3.53bn	£3.61bn	£3.70bn
Universal childcare entitlement	£2.26bn	£2.45bn	£2.51bn	£2.58bn	£2.64bn	£2.72bn	£2.78bn
Targeted childcare entitlement	£0.47bn	£0.49bn	£0.50bn	£0.51bn	£0.52bn	£0.53bn	£0.47bn
Care to Learn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Childcare Grant	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Parents' Learning Allowance	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn
Adult Dependants' Grant	£0.06bn	£0.06bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn
Travel Grant	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
NHS spending	£204.68bn	£205.46bn	£206.22bn	£207.04bn	£207.96bn	£208.89bn	£209.79bn
State education spending	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn
Transport subsidy spending	£25.15bn	£25.25bn	£25.34bn	£25.44bn	£25.55bn	£25.67bn	£25.78bn
Cost-of-living support payment	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Energy Bills Rebate	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Basic income	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Disability basic income	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Other public spending budget change	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn

Caseloads: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
State Pension	11,308k	11,208k	10,906k	10,812k	10,860k	10,908k	10,955k
Pension Credit	1,491k	1,489k	1,478k	1,459k	1,459k	1,456k	1,453k
Winter Fuel Payment	7,091k	7,011k	6,599k	6,512k	6,493k	6,379k	6,248k
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland)	806k	807k	807k	805k	809k	812k	816k
Universal Credit	6,361k	6,370k	6,404k	6,419k	6,390k	6,387k	6,368k
Housing Benefit	1,254k	1,252k	1,254k	1,239k	1,245k	1,247k	1,249k
Council Tax Reduction	3,186k	3,211k	3,226k	3,245k	3,264k	3,281k	3,293k
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related)	187k	188k	188k	189k	190k	190k	191k
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based)	722k	724k	727k	730k	733k	737k	740k
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based)	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based)	67k	67k	68k	68k	68k	69k	69k
Income Support	25k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Working Tax Credit	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Child Tax Credit	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Incapacity Benefit	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Personal Independence Payment	3,581k	3,595k	3,608k	3,623k	3,639k	3,655k	3,671k
Disability Living Allowance	1,296k	1,301k	1,306k	1,311k	1,317k	1,323k	1,329k
Attendance Allowance	1,701k	1,708k	1,714k	1,721k	1,729k	1,736k	1,744k
Carer's Allowance	1,038k	1,042k	1,046k	1,050k	1,055k	1,059k	1,064k
Carer Support Payment (Scotland)	71k	72k	72k	72k	73k	73k	73k
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland)	0k	72k	72k	72k	73k	73k	73k
Severe Disablement Allowance	4k	4k	4k	4k	4k	4k	4k
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit	137k	138k	139k	139k	140k	140k	141k
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme	94k	94k	94k	95k	95k	95k	96k
War Widow's or Widower's Pension	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Child Benefit	8,136k	8,165k	8,185k	8,215k	8,249k	8,282k	8,314k
Scottish Child Payment	352k	354k	355k	359k	357k	358k	357k
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual)	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Healthy Start vouchers	200k	201k	202k	203k	204k	204k	205k
Maternity Allowance	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Statutory Maternity Pay	334k	335k	336k	338k	339k	341k	342k
Statutory Paternity Pay	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Statutory Sick Pay	182k	183k	183k	184k	185k	186k	186k
Sure Start Maternity Grant	26k	26k	26k	27k	27k	27k	27k
Bereavement Support Payment	98k	98k	99k	99k	100k	100k	101k
Tax-Free Childcare	1,018k	1,029k	1,028k	1,033k	1,034k	1,039k	1,023k
Extended childcare entitlement	718k	724k	728k	732k	737k	741k	743k
Universal childcare entitlement	986k	989k	992k	997k	1,002k	1,013k	1,015k
Targeted childcare entitlement	98k	98k	96k	96k	96k	97k	84k
Care to Learn	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Childcare Grant	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Parents' Learning Allowance	98k	99k	99k	100k	100k	100k	101k
Adult Dependants' Grant	18k	18k	12k	13k	13k	13k	13k
Travel Grant	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Cost-of-living support payment	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Energy Bills Rebate	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Basic income	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Disability basic income	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k

Government balance, each component counted once: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Government receipts, each component once	£899.38bn	£939.24bn	£976.25bn	£1,009.45bn	£1,045.73bn	£1,082.67bn	£1,123.55bn
Government spending	£531.92bn †	£546.96bn †	£554.90bn †	£562.04bn †	£570.63bn †	£579.83bn †	£588.90bn †
Government balance, each receipt once	£367.47bn †	£392.28bn †	£421.35bn †	£447.41bn †	£475.10bn †	£502.84bn †	£534.65bn †
Benefits in household_benefits but not in gov_spending	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn

Model totals: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
gov_tax	£899.38bn	£939.24bn	£976.25bn	£1,009.45bn	£1,045.73bn	£1,082.67bn	£1,123.55bn
household_tax	£493.03bn	£519.53bn	£545.39bn	£567.58bn	£589.79bn	£614.24bn	£640.95bn
pre_budget_change_household_tax	£485.21bn	£511.41bn	£537.04bn	£558.54bn	£580.51bn	£604.69bn	£631.05bn
gov_spending	£531.92bn †	£546.96bn †	£554.90bn †	£562.04bn †	£570.63bn †	£579.83bn †	£588.90bn †
household_benefits	£531.92bn †	£546.96bn †	£554.90bn †	£562.04bn †	£570.63bn †	£579.83bn †	£588.90bn †
gov_balance	£367.47bn †	£392.28bn †	£421.35bn †	£447.41bn †	£475.10bn †	£502.84bn †	£534.65bn †

Household income totals: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Household market income	£1,657.06bn	£1,719.25bn	£1,771.68bn	£1,821.99bn	£1,872.88bn	£1,930.99bn	£2,001.98bn
Household net income	£1,656.67bn †	£1,705.92bn †	£1,739.31bn †	£1,773.51bn †	£1,809.65bn †	£1,851.24bn †	£1,902.89bn †
Household net income (HBAI definition)	£1,463.15bn	£1,510.70bn	£1,544.54bn	£1,577.63bn	£1,611.73bn	£1,650.77bn	£1,701.20bn

Population: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
People	69,514k	69,778k	70,036k	70,316k	70,626k	70,944k	71,249k
Benefit units	35,247k	35,381k	35,512k	35,654k	35,811k	35,972k	36,127k
Households	31,167k	31,285k	31,401k	31,526k	31,665k	31,808k	31,944k

Poverty rates: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone	16.2%	15.2%	15.5%	15.7%	15.7%	15.8%	15.8%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children	24.6%	21.4%	21.6%	21.6%	21.8%	22.0%	21.9%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	13.9%	13.5%	14.0%	14.1%	14.2%	14.3%	14.2%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	13.7%	13.2%	13.2%	13.5%	13.5%	13.6%	13.6%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone	21.5%	20.8%	21.4%	21.6%	21.9%	22.2%	22.2%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children	33.4%	30.9%	31.2%	31.3%	31.7%	32.2%	32.3%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	19.8%	19.6%	20.3%	20.4%	20.8%	21.0%	21.0%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	12.8%	12.6%	12.6%	13.0%	13.3%	13.4%	13.4%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone	17.2%	16.5%	16.5%	16.6%	16.4%	16.5%	16.6%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children	26.4%	23.7%	23.4%	23.4%	22.9%	23.0%	23.4%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	14.6%	14.4%	14.6%	14.8%	14.7%	14.8%	14.9%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	15.0%	14.8%	14.1%	14.2%	14.0%	14.1%	14.2%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone	21.7%	21.1%	21.3%	21.3%	21.4%	21.5%	21.9%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children	33.5%	31.3%	31.1%	31.0%	31.0%	31.1%	31.7%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	19.9%	19.8%	20.2%	20.3%	20.4%	20.5%	20.8%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	13.0%	12.7%	12.6%	12.3%	12.2%	12.2%	13.1%

People in poverty: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone	11,270k	10,578k	10,858k	11,007k	11,103k	11,238k	11,252k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children	3,696k	3,227k	3,267k	3,285k	3,319k	3,371k	3,363k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	5,940k	5,792k	6,071k	6,182k	6,234k	6,302k	6,314k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	1,634k	1,559k	1,519k	1,540k	1,550k	1,566k	1,575k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone	14,972k	14,539k	14,956k	15,179k	15,479k	15,741k	15,843k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children	5,005k	4,656k	4,709k	4,752k	4,834k	4,930k	4,973k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	8,445k	8,399k	8,796k	8,942k	9,125k	9,271k	9,320k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	1,521k	1,484k	1,452k	1,485k	1,520k	1,539k	1,550k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone	11,980k	11,485k	11,528k	11,641k	11,552k	11,677k	11,832k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children	3,967k	3,570k	3,543k	3,556k	3,491k	3,522k	3,593k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	6,227k	6,161k	6,359k	6,462k	6,453k	6,536k	6,596k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	1,785k	1,754k	1,627k	1,623k	1,608k	1,619k	1,644k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone	15,057k	14,705k	14,915k	14,985k	15,110k	15,227k	15,621k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children	5,024k	4,718k	4,698k	4,701k	4,731k	4,765k	4,874k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	8,480k	8,486k	8,769k	8,885k	8,981k	9,056k	9,230k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	1,552k	1,501k	1,448k	1,398k	1,398k	1,405k	1,516k

Inequality: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Gini coefficient, equivalised HBAI income before housing costs	0.3087	0.3060	0.3067	0.3074	0.3079	0.3085	0.3096

Mean household net income in each side's own deciles: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household	£17,832 †	£18,015 †	£18,026 †	£18,059 †	£18,395 †	£18,583 †	£18,743 †
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household	£28,134 †	£29,089 †	£28,825 †	£29,239 †	£29,564 †	£29,945 †	£30,476 †
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household	£34,455 †	£35,681 †	£36,264 †	£36,779 †	£37,076 †	£37,626 †	£38,511 †
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household	£39,398 †	£41,043 †	£42,036 †	£42,777 †	£43,509 †	£44,366 †	£44,673 †
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household	£43,698 †	£45,019 †	£46,119 †	£46,804 †	£47,819 †	£48,805 †	£49,921 †
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household	£48,494 †	£49,775 †	£50,906 †	£51,593 †	£52,132 †	£53,429 †	£54,829 †
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household	£56,356 †	£57,547 †	£58,429 †	£59,170 †	£60,256 †	£60,799 †	£62,484 †
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household	£68,817 †	£70,403 †	£71,736 †	£73,017 †	£74,372 †	£75,880 †	£77,602 †
Decile 9: mean household_net_income per household	£79,735 †	£82,088 †	£83,308 †	£84,528 †	£86,191 †	£87,657 †	£90,676 †
Decile 10: mean household_net_income per household	£117,772 †	£120,640 †	£122,567 †	£124,670 †	£126,895 †	£129,221 †	£132,115 †

Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance): head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp	£6.22bn	£6.50bn	£6.70bn	£6.90bn	£7.11bn	£7.34bn	£7.62bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp	£3.54bn	£3.82bn	£4.05bn	£4.27bn	£4.49bn	£4.76bn	£4.96bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year	£-3.83bn	£-3.96bn	£-4.03bn	£-4.10bn	£-4.19bn	£-4.30bn	£-2.02bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child	£-2.00bn	£-1.76bn	£-1.58bn	£-1.48bn	£-1.38bn	£-1.28bn	£-1.17bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%	£-20.49bn	£-21.05bn	£-21.50bn	£-21.94bn	£-22.03bn	£-22.40bn	£-22.87bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%	£11.07bn	£11.51bn	£11.84bn	£12.14bn	£12.49bn	£12.83bn	£13.23bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp	£25.01bn	£25.68bn	£26.29bn	£26.92bn	£27.58bn	£28.26bn	£28.95bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp	£2.83bn	£3.07bn	£3.27bn	£3.47bn	£3.67bn	suppressed	suppressed
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%	£-3.03bn	£-3.16bn	£-3.28bn	£-3.35bn	£-3.39bn	£-3.44bn	£-3.51bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%	£-7.81bn	£-8.07bn	£-7.99bn	£-8.11bn	£-8.36bn	£-8.66bn	£-9.02bn

Standard reforms: change in each reform's target: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp: change in income_tax	£6.36bn	£6.65bn	£6.86bn	£7.07bn	£7.28bn	£7.52bn	£7.80bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp: change in income_tax	£3.55bn	£3.83bn	£4.06bn	£4.28bn	£4.50bn	£4.77bn	£4.97bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year: change in income_tax	£-3.96bn	£-4.10bn	£-4.19bn	£-4.26bn	£-4.36bn	£-4.47bn	£-1.77bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child: change in child_benefit	£2.34bn	£2.15bn	£1.96bn	£1.85bn	£1.74bn	£1.63bn	£1.51bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%: change in universal_credit	£20.48bn	£21.04bn	£21.49bn	£21.93bn	£22.02bn	£22.40bn	£22.86bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%: change in national_insurance	£11.33bn	£11.79bn	£12.13bn	£12.44bn	£12.78bn	£13.13bn	£13.62bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp: change in vat	£25.01bn	£25.68bn	£26.29bn	£26.92bn	£27.58bn	£28.26bn	£28.95bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax	£2.83bn	£3.07bn	£3.27bn	£3.47bn	£3.67bn	suppressed	suppressed
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%: change in universal_credit	£3.03bn	£3.16bn	£3.28bn	£3.36bn	£3.41bn	£3.47bn	£3.52bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%: change in state_pension	£10.72bn	£11.23bn	£11.37bn	£11.62bn	£12.08bn	£12.54bn	£13.07bn

MaxGhenis · 2026-10-24T03:47:27Z

Merged by the UK hub (Claude session 8e19f9d5) at head ac917d376, through the merge queue with the head pinned.

What it does: targeted childcare qualifies through Pension Credit only when a guarantee credit is received. The test fix brings the property oracles into line with Preserve universal and targeted hours alongside extended childcare #2177, which made eligibility legal eligibility: no claim needed, and extended working-parent hours don't exclude a family.
Hub test fix (backlog build F): merged main, plus one test-only commit; no formula or production code changed.
Independent review (GPT-6.1 Sol, APPROVE at this exact head): the rewritten oracles are correct in law (DfE guidance A1.11 permits both entitlements; SI 2014/2147 reg 1(3)(a)). The known families are hand-checked: a £20,000 UC earner has £17,919.60 net, above £15,400, and £9,399.60 after the work allowance, so restoring the pre-Use UC earned income before the work allowance in targeted childcare and local CTR #2552 test would contradict the UC rule.
CI: every check passes at this head. The merge queue re-runs the full suite against current main.
Impact (Aggregate impact report, certified data, 2025-26 to 2031-32): no household's net income changes in any year, and 0 checks broke.
Why now: Max asked on 22 Oct to clear the UK PR backlog before the Budget.

MaxGhenis and others added 3 commits October 2, 2026 15:21

Keep the Guarantee Credit route tests off the State Pension age phase-in

95ece6c

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

MaxGhenis force-pushed the targeted-childcare-gc-entitlement branch from 806859d to 2f93939 Compare October 2, 2026 19:36

MaxGhenis mentioned this pull request Oct 2, 2026

Encode S.I. 2014/2147 reg 1(2)-(6): the Universal Credit earned income route into the two-year-old offer (PE parity: policyengine-uk#1999) TheAxiomFoundation/rulespec-uk#400

Open

MaxGhenis mentioned this pull request Oct 3, 2026

savings_credit has no Pension Credit eligibility condition (guarantee_credit fixed in #1896) #2121

Closed

MaxGhenis and others added 2 commits October 3, 2026 22:06

Merge remote-tracking branch 'origin/main' into targeted-childcare-gc…

ad8e55d

…-entitlement

This was referenced Oct 12, 2026

in_receipt_of_savings_credit_only ignores whether Pension Credit is paid #2372

Closed

Require a Pension Credit payment for savings-credit-only receipt #2373

Merged

MaxGhenis and others added 3 commits October 12, 2026 07:19

Merge remote-tracking branch 'origin/main' into targeted-childcare-gc…

1901d72

…-entitlement

MaxGhenis marked this pull request as ready for review October 22, 2026 18:14

MaxGhenis added this pull request to the merge queue Oct 22, 2026

github-merge-queue Bot removed this pull request from the merge queue due to failed status checks Oct 23, 2026

MaxGhenis and others added 2 commits October 23, 2026 00:22

Merge origin/main into targeted-childcare-gc-entitlement

ada8df1

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

MaxGhenis added this pull request to the merge queue Oct 23, 2026

Merged via the queue into main with commit 2db76c9 Oct 24, 2026
17 of 18 checks passed

MaxGhenis deleted the targeted-childcare-gc-entitlement branch October 24, 2026 03:40

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Qualify targeted childcare through Pension Credit only on receipt of a guarantee credit - #1987

Qualify targeted childcare through Pension Credit only on receipt of a guarantee credit#1987
MaxGhenis merged 12 commits into
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MaxGhenis commented Oct 1, 2026 •

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Summary

The law

Household example (2026, North East)

Enhanced FRS impact

Invariants (Hypothesis, test_targeted_childcare_guarantee_credit_properties.py)

Tests

Known departures (unchanged by this PR)

Overlaps

Review

Axiom

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MaxGhenis commented Oct 23, 2026

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github-actions Bot commented Oct 23, 2026

Aggregate impact on certified data: pass

Notes

Moves flagged for review

Spending by benefit and service

Caseloads

Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance)

Standard reforms: change in each reform's target

Household net income by decile

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MaxGhenis commented Oct 1, 2026 •

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Invariants (Hypothesis, `test_targeted_childcare_guarantee_credit_properties.py`)