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Add historical Housing Benefit non-dependant deduction rates - #2213

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anth-volk wants to merge 3 commits into
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fix-hb-nondep-history
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Add historical Housing Benefit non-dependant deduction rates#2213
anth-volk wants to merge 3 commits into
mainfrom
fix-hb-nondep-history

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@anth-volk

@anth-volk anth-volk commented Oct 9, 2026 •
edited by MaxGhenis
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Fixes #2212

Adds the enacted 2015–2017 Housing Benefit non-dependant deduction thresholds and amounts, with the original cell references to 2015 article 18(3), 2016 regulation 5, and 2017 article 22(4).

Corrects all twelve 2018 cells to 2 April 2018, the weekly-rent commencement in SI 2018/281 articles 1(2)(h), 23(3), and 24(3). Other rent periods commence on 1 April; both precede the model's 30 April fiscal-year sample. The processed 2018–19 deduction for an eligible non-dependant earning £100/week is £793/year. Leaving the June dates after adding historical values instead selects £769.60, potentially overpaying HB and shared-scale CTR by £23.40.

Merged origin/main at a45baf5e490928db20fda96eb845214853fe8068 with a merge commit, preserving all later rates and uprating metadata while retaining Anthony Volk's historical cells and references. Separate eligibility/banding work is tracked in #2007 and within-unit coverage in #2017.

Validation in the frozen worktree environment (Python 3.13.9, core 3.33.2):

  • Before the date fix: 4 failed and 9 passed, including the runtime £769.60 reproducer.
  • Final foreground pytest -n 2: 292 passed, comprising 6 Python history/processing tests and 286 YAML cases across the full HB family directory plus the HB pension-age means-test and Pension Credit HB files. No failures, errors, or skips.
  • uvx ruff==0.17.0 format --check .: all 1,957 files formatted; ruff check ., uv pip check, git diff --check, and the CI fix-evidence checker passed.
  • Each test run was gated on load1 ≤110 and free disk ≥55,000,000,000 bytes; final gate: load1 62.35 and 102,036,328,448 bytes free. BLAS/OpenMP thread caps: 2.

The hub will commission independent review at the pushed head. Axiom parity remains an open hand-off item.

Reproducer: policyengine_uk/tests/test_housing_benefit_non_dep_history.py::test_processed_2018_scale_uses_april_commencement
Reproducer: policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/finance/benefit/family/housing_benefit/non_dep_deduction/household_benefits_individual_non_dep_deduction.yaml::The 2018 fiscal year uses the April non-dependant deduction in HB and CTR

axiom: needed

@MaxGhenis

MaxGhenis commented Oct 22, 2026

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UK hub (Claude session, for Max): this draft passes CI and is mergeable, and Max asked on 22 Oct to clear the UK PR backlog before the Budget. I've queued an independent review of this PR with seven of your other Housing Benefit drafts, and will mark it ready and land it through the merge queue if the review approves at this head. @anth-volk, reply here if you'd like it held or you're still changing it.

@MaxGhenis
Merge main into Housing Benefit deduction history fix
d5f5bff 
# Conflicts:
#	policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/dwp/housing_benefit/non_dep_deduction/amount.yaml
@MaxGhenis
Use April commencement for 2018 HB non-dependant deductions
6b355c7
@MaxGhenis

MaxGhenis commented Oct 23, 2026

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UK hub hand-off for Max; Anthony Volk's draft and original commits are retained.

Head: 6b355c7824aaf61d9764a8d85fed13a569c55784 (pushed once, without rewriting history). Main a45baf5e490928db20fda96eb845214853fe8068 was merged in d5f5bffc34db700697e4400e1183e7ea66f721cc, retaining its later rates and uprating metadata alongside all historical cells and references.

Change: corrected all twelve 2018 scale dates to 2 April, the weekly-rent commencement in SI 2018/281 articles 1(2)(h), 23(3) and 24(3). Other rent periods start on 1 April; both precede the model's 30 April sample. Raw and processed scale tests plus a shared HB/CTR YAML fixture pin the £793 annual deduction for £100/week income, preventing the £23.40 shortfall.

Tests: 292 passed with foreground pytest -n 2: 6 Python history/processing tests and 286 HB YAML cases. No failures, errors or skips. Before the fix: 4 failed and 9 passed, including the £769.60 runtime reproduction. Frozen Python 3.13.9/core 3.33.2; thread caps 2. Resource gate: load1 62.35, free disk 102,036,328,448 bytes. Formatting (1,957 files), lint, dependency consistency, whitespace and committed-head fix-evidence checks passed.

Open items: hub independent review and CI at this head; existing axiom: needed parity follow-up. Hand-off files, logs, JUnit results, Git bundle and patch are in .job/ in the assigned workspace. The PR remains a draft for the hub to review and land.

@github-actions

github-actions Bot commented Oct 23, 2026

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Aggregate impact on certified data: pass

Base a45baf5e49 against head 01ca95fd2b, both on enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5 (policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1, sha256 056e80fd8e91), fiscal years 2025-26 to 2031-32. Each year is a full microsimulation run on each side.

Checks: 0 broken by this change, 1 failing on both sides, 0 fixed. Moves flagged for review: 0 (thresholds in report_spec.yaml; a flag does not fail the job).

Workflow run and full report

Notes

  • In the years a figure from fewer than 10 records is suppressed (spending.disabled_students_allowance), every total containing it, and the decile incomes, are rebuilt from their other components, so no published total includes it. Those totals are marked †. A change is withheld where the two sides leave out different figures and can't be lined up.

Moves flagged for review

None.

Spending by benefit and service

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed

Caseloads

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed

Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance)

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise additional rate by 3pp 0 0 0 0 0 suppressed suppressed

Standard reforms: change in each reform's target

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax 0 0 0 0 0 suppressed suppressed

Household net income by decile

No household's net income changes in any year.

No change in any year: receipts by tax head; government balance, each component counted once; model totals; household income totals; population; poverty rates; people in poverty; inequality; mean household net income in each side's own deciles.

Checks failing on both base and head (1)
  • VAT is never negative (sign:vat): 2025-26: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-54,797,972 in total; 2026-27: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-56,271,349 in total; 2027-28: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-57,609,146 in total
Counted-once check

Each of 84 components was raised by £1 per unit in 2026-27, and every head of its totals was read household by household: its own head must rise by exactly £1, no other tax head may move, no other benefit may rise, and the model's own total must move by what its heads moved. A head that breaks a rule is measured again twice: with every other head held at its baseline value, and with every other head held at its value after the first £1 while the component rises again. It fails where either still shows the response. 0 failed; 0 were skipped.

Provenance
Side Commit Runtime Environment hash Partition hash Time
base main a45baf5e49 uk 2.148.2 (files b5518ba815b6), core 3.33.2, py 3.13.17 aarch64 b44abd50af78 d4c1e9f08160 1570.73s
head #2213 merged into main 01ca95fd2b uk 2.148.2 (files 5bd3e473d561), core 3.33.2, py 3.13.17 aarch64 b44abd50af78 d4c1e9f08160 1592.53s

Dataset: hf://policyengine/policyengine-uk-data-private/enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5@2526edbbb687a3b54dbb11272e5389e4b62d2ac2, sha256 056e80fd8e9151d78f432a25cde863340baee81304c6216a37fb575ce8563784 (verified on both sides), policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1.

Receipts by tax head: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Income tax £299.29bn £319.01bn £336.54bn £351.69bn £367.24bn £385.36bn £403.66bn
National Insurance (employee and self-employed) £52.58bn £54.94bn £56.75bn £58.48bn £60.62bn £62.57bn £65.03bn
National Insurance (employer) £152.64bn £159.18bn £164.14bn £168.73bn £176.11bn £181.72bn £188.90bn
Employer NI change borne by capital £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Employer NI change borne by consumers £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Capital gains tax £12.62bn £13.06bn £13.55bn £14.04bn £14.54bn £15.09bn £15.65bn
Student loan repayments £7.83bn £8.12bn £8.35bn £8.56bn £8.79bn £9.04bn £9.38bn
VAT £253.71bn £260.53bn £266.72bn £273.14bn £279.83bn £286.71bn £293.71bn
Change in VAT from its baseline £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
VAT on private school fees £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Fuel duties £24.53bn £24.64bn £26.64bn £26.69bn £26.42bn £25.76bn £26.35bn
Alcohol duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Tobacco duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Vehicle excise duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
TV licence fee £4.28bn £4.43bn £4.44bn £4.46bn £4.48bn £4.51bn £4.53bn
Council tax £49.56bn £52.45bn £55.78bn £59.39bn £62.98bn £66.74bn £70.70bn
High value council tax surcharge £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.48bn £0.49bn £0.51bn £0.52bn
Northern Ireland domestic rates £0.55bn £0.58bn £0.61bn £0.63bn £0.67bn £0.70bn £0.73bn
Business rates £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn
Stamp duty land tax on the household's own purchases £6.93bn £7.42bn £7.85bn £8.26bn £8.68bn £9.09bn £9.51bn
Stamp duty land tax paid by companies £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn
Land transaction tax (Wales) £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Land and buildings transaction tax (Scotland) £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn
Unspecified tax change borne by capital £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Unspecified tax change borne by consumers £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Wealth tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Wealth tax excluding the main residence £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Land value tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Carbon tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Spending by benefit and service: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
State Pension £122.15bn £126.64bn £127.76bn £129.65bn £133.46bn £137.40bn £141.47bn
Pension Credit £6.68bn £7.07bn £7.09bn £7.16bn £7.28bn £7.42bn £7.52bn
Winter Fuel Payment £1.70bn £1.68bn £1.59bn £1.57bn £1.57bn £1.55bn £1.52bn
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland) £0.19bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.21bn £0.21bn £0.22bn £0.22bn
Universal Credit £75.54bn £80.75bn £83.40bn £85.21bn £86.21bn £87.61bn £88.91bn
Housing Benefit £8.59bn £8.93bn £9.19bn £9.33bn £9.61bn £9.87bn £10.15bn
Council Tax Reduction £1.99bn £2.03bn £2.08bn £2.13bn £2.18bn £2.23bn £2.29bn
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related) £2.12bn £2.18bn £2.23bn £2.28bn £2.33bn £2.39bn £2.45bn
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based) £5.22bn £5.36bn £5.49bn £5.62bn £5.76bn £5.90bn £6.04bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based) £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based) £0.29bn £0.30bn £0.30bn £0.31bn £0.32bn £0.33bn £0.33bn
Income Support £0.12bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Working Tax Credit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Child Tax Credit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Incapacity Benefit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Personal Independence Payment £27.05bn £28.19bn £29.28bn £30.02bn £30.75bn £31.51bn £32.28bn
Disability Living Allowance £7.52bn £7.83bn £8.14bn £8.34bn £8.55bn £8.76bn £8.97bn
Attendance Allowance £8.71bn £9.08bn £9.43bn £9.67bn £9.90bn £10.15bn £10.40bn
Carer's Allowance £4.50bn £4.69bn £4.87bn £4.99bn £5.11bn £5.23bn £5.36bn
Carer Support Payment (Scotland) £0.31bn £0.32bn £0.34bn £0.34bn £0.35bn £0.36bn £0.37bn
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland) £0.00bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn
Severe Disablement Allowance £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit £0.51bn £0.52bn £0.53bn £0.54bn £0.56bn £0.57bn £0.59bn
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme £0.61bn £0.62bn £0.64bn £0.65bn £0.67bn £0.69bn £0.70bn
War Widow's or Widower's Pension £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Child Benefit £16.23bn £16.91bn £17.53bn £17.96bn £18.39bn £18.84bn £19.29bn
Scottish Child Payment £0.50bn £0.52bn £0.53bn £0.55bn £0.56bn £0.57bn £0.58bn
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual) £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Healthy Start vouchers £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn
Maternity Allowance £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Statutory Maternity Pay £3.32bn £3.41bn £3.49bn £3.57bn £3.66bn £3.75bn £3.84bn
Statutory Paternity Pay £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Statutory Sick Pay £1.13bn £1.16bn £1.19bn £1.22bn £1.25bn £1.28bn £1.31bn
Sure Start Maternity Grant £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn
Bereavement Support Payment £0.67bn £0.69bn £0.70bn £0.72bn £0.74bn £0.76bn £0.78bn
Tax-Free Childcare £0.55bn £0.56bn £0.57bn £0.58bn £0.60bn £0.61bn £0.59bn
Extended childcare entitlement £2.77bn £3.27bn £3.36bn £3.43bn £3.53bn £3.61bn £3.70bn
Universal childcare entitlement £2.26bn £2.45bn £2.51bn £2.58bn £2.64bn £2.72bn £2.78bn
Targeted childcare entitlement £0.47bn £0.49bn £0.50bn £0.51bn £0.52bn £0.53bn £0.47bn
Care to Learn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Childcare Grant £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Parents' Learning Allowance £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn
Adult Dependants' Grant £0.06bn £0.06bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn
Travel Grant £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
NHS spending £204.68bn £205.46bn £206.22bn £207.04bn £207.96bn £208.89bn £209.79bn
State education spending £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn
Transport subsidy spending £25.15bn £25.25bn £25.34bn £25.44bn £25.55bn £25.67bn £25.78bn
Cost-of-living support payment £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Energy Bills Rebate £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Basic income £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Disability basic income £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Other public spending budget change £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Caseloads: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
State Pension 11,308k 11,208k 10,906k 10,812k 10,860k 10,908k 10,955k
Pension Credit 1,491k 1,489k 1,478k 1,459k 1,459k 1,456k 1,453k
Winter Fuel Payment 7,091k 7,011k 6,599k 6,512k 6,493k 6,379k 6,248k
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland) 806k 807k 807k 805k 809k 812k 816k
Universal Credit 6,361k 6,370k 6,404k 6,419k 6,390k 6,387k 6,368k
Housing Benefit 1,254k 1,252k 1,254k 1,239k 1,245k 1,247k 1,249k
Council Tax Reduction 3,186k 3,211k 3,226k 3,245k 3,264k 3,281k 3,293k
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related) 187k 188k 188k 189k 190k 190k 191k
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based) 722k 724k 727k 730k 733k 737k 740k
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based) 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based) 67k 67k 68k 68k 68k 69k 69k
Income Support 25k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Working Tax Credit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Child Tax Credit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Incapacity Benefit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Personal Independence Payment 3,581k 3,595k 3,608k 3,623k 3,639k 3,655k 3,671k
Disability Living Allowance 1,296k 1,301k 1,306k 1,311k 1,317k 1,323k 1,329k
Attendance Allowance 1,701k 1,708k 1,714k 1,721k 1,729k 1,736k 1,744k
Carer's Allowance 1,038k 1,042k 1,046k 1,050k 1,055k 1,059k 1,064k
Carer Support Payment (Scotland) 71k 72k 72k 72k 73k 73k 73k
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland) 0k 72k 72k 72k 73k 73k 73k
Severe Disablement Allowance 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit 137k 138k 139k 139k 140k 140k 141k
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme 94k 94k 94k 95k 95k 95k 96k
War Widow's or Widower's Pension 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Child Benefit 8,136k 8,165k 8,185k 8,215k 8,249k 8,282k 8,314k
Scottish Child Payment 352k 354k 355k 359k 357k 358k 357k
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual) 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Healthy Start vouchers 200k 201k 202k 203k 204k 204k 205k
Maternity Allowance 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Statutory Maternity Pay 334k 335k 336k 338k 339k 341k 342k
Statutory Paternity Pay 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Statutory Sick Pay 182k 183k 183k 184k 185k 186k 186k
Sure Start Maternity Grant 26k 26k 26k 27k 27k 27k 27k
Bereavement Support Payment 98k 98k 99k 99k 100k 100k 101k
Tax-Free Childcare 1,018k 1,029k 1,028k 1,033k 1,034k 1,039k 1,023k
Extended childcare entitlement 718k 724k 728k 732k 737k 741k 743k
Universal childcare entitlement 986k 989k 992k 997k 1,002k 1,013k 1,015k
Targeted childcare entitlement 98k 98k 96k 96k 96k 97k 84k
Care to Learn 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Childcare Grant 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Parents' Learning Allowance 98k 99k 99k 100k 100k 100k 101k
Adult Dependants' Grant 18k 18k 12k 13k 13k 13k 13k
Travel Grant 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Cost-of-living support payment 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Energy Bills Rebate 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Basic income 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Disability basic income 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Government balance, each component counted once: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Government receipts, each component once £899.38bn £939.24bn £976.25bn £1,009.45bn £1,045.73bn £1,082.67bn £1,123.55bn
Government spending £531.92bn † £546.96bn † £554.90bn † £562.04bn † £570.63bn † £579.83bn † £588.90bn †
Government balance, each receipt once £367.47bn † £392.28bn † £421.35bn † £447.41bn † £475.10bn † £502.84bn † £534.65bn †
Benefits in household_benefits but not in gov_spending £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Model totals: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
gov_tax £899.38bn £939.24bn £976.25bn £1,009.45bn £1,045.73bn £1,082.67bn £1,123.55bn
household_tax £493.03bn £519.53bn £545.39bn £567.58bn £589.79bn £614.24bn £640.95bn
pre_budget_change_household_tax £485.21bn £511.41bn £537.04bn £558.54bn £580.51bn £604.69bn £631.05bn
gov_spending £531.92bn † £546.96bn † £554.90bn † £562.04bn † £570.63bn † £579.83bn † £588.90bn †
household_benefits £531.92bn † £546.96bn † £554.90bn † £562.04bn † £570.63bn † £579.83bn † £588.90bn †
gov_balance £367.47bn † £392.28bn † £421.35bn † £447.41bn † £475.10bn † £502.84bn † £534.65bn †
Household income totals: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Household market income £1,657.06bn £1,719.25bn £1,771.68bn £1,821.99bn £1,872.88bn £1,930.99bn £2,001.98bn
Household net income £1,656.67bn † £1,705.92bn † £1,739.31bn † £1,773.51bn † £1,809.65bn † £1,851.24bn † £1,902.89bn †
Household net income (HBAI definition) £1,463.15bn £1,510.70bn £1,544.54bn £1,577.63bn £1,611.73bn £1,650.77bn £1,701.20bn
Population: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
People 69,514k 69,778k 70,036k 70,316k 70,626k 70,944k 71,249k
Benefit units 35,247k 35,381k 35,512k 35,654k 35,811k 35,972k 36,127k
Households 31,167k 31,285k 31,401k 31,526k 31,665k 31,808k 31,944k
Poverty rates: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone 16.2% 15.2% 15.5% 15.7% 15.7% 15.8% 15.8%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children 24.6% 21.4% 21.6% 21.6% 21.8% 22.0% 21.9%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 13.9% 13.5% 14.0% 14.1% 14.2% 14.3% 14.2%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 13.7% 13.2% 13.2% 13.5% 13.5% 13.6% 13.6%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone 21.5% 20.8% 21.4% 21.6% 21.9% 22.2% 22.2%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children 33.4% 30.9% 31.2% 31.3% 31.7% 32.2% 32.3%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 19.8% 19.6% 20.3% 20.4% 20.8% 21.0% 21.0%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 12.8% 12.6% 12.6% 13.0% 13.3% 13.4% 13.4%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone 17.2% 16.5% 16.5% 16.6% 16.4% 16.5% 16.6%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children 26.4% 23.7% 23.4% 23.4% 22.9% 23.0% 23.4%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 14.6% 14.4% 14.6% 14.8% 14.7% 14.8% 14.9%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 15.0% 14.8% 14.1% 14.2% 14.0% 14.1% 14.2%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone 21.7% 21.1% 21.3% 21.3% 21.4% 21.5% 21.9%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children 33.5% 31.3% 31.1% 31.0% 31.0% 31.1% 31.7%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 19.9% 19.8% 20.2% 20.3% 20.4% 20.5% 20.8%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 13.0% 12.7% 12.6% 12.3% 12.2% 12.2% 13.1%
People in poverty: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone 11,270k 10,578k 10,858k 11,007k 11,103k 11,238k 11,252k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children 3,696k 3,227k 3,267k 3,285k 3,319k 3,371k 3,363k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 5,940k 5,792k 6,071k 6,182k 6,234k 6,302k 6,314k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 1,634k 1,559k 1,519k 1,540k 1,550k 1,566k 1,575k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone 14,972k 14,539k 14,956k 15,179k 15,479k 15,741k 15,843k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children 5,005k 4,656k 4,709k 4,752k 4,834k 4,930k 4,973k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 8,445k 8,399k 8,796k 8,942k 9,125k 9,271k 9,320k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 1,521k 1,484k 1,452k 1,485k 1,520k 1,539k 1,550k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone 11,980k 11,485k 11,528k 11,641k 11,552k 11,677k 11,832k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children 3,967k 3,570k 3,543k 3,556k 3,491k 3,522k 3,593k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 6,227k 6,161k 6,359k 6,462k 6,453k 6,536k 6,596k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 1,785k 1,754k 1,627k 1,623k 1,608k 1,619k 1,644k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone 15,057k 14,705k 14,915k 14,985k 15,110k 15,227k 15,621k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children 5,024k 4,718k 4,698k 4,701k 4,731k 4,765k 4,874k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 8,480k 8,486k 8,769k 8,885k 8,981k 9,056k 9,230k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 1,552k 1,501k 1,448k 1,398k 1,398k 1,405k 1,516k
Inequality: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Gini coefficient, equivalised HBAI income before housing costs 0.3087 0.3060 0.3067 0.3074 0.3079 0.3085 0.3096
Mean household net income in each side's own deciles: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household £17,832 † £18,015 † £18,026 † £18,059 † £18,395 † £18,583 † £18,743 †
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household £28,134 † £29,089 † £28,825 † £29,239 † £29,564 † £29,945 † £30,476 †
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household £34,455 † £35,681 † £36,264 † £36,779 † £37,076 † £37,626 † £38,511 †
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household £39,398 † £41,043 † £42,036 † £42,777 † £43,509 † £44,366 † £44,673 †
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household £43,698 † £45,019 † £46,119 † £46,804 † £47,819 † £48,805 † £49,921 †
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household £48,494 † £49,775 † £50,906 † £51,593 † £52,132 † £53,429 † £54,829 †
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household £56,356 † £57,547 † £58,429 † £59,170 † £60,256 † £60,799 † £62,484 †
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household £68,817 † £70,403 † £71,736 † £73,017 † £74,372 † £75,880 † £77,602 †
Decile 9: mean household_net_income per household £79,735 † £82,088 † £83,308 † £84,528 † £86,191 † £87,657 † £90,676 †
Decile 10: mean household_net_income per household £117,772 † £120,640 † £122,567 † £124,670 † £126,895 † £129,221 † £132,115 †
Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance): head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp £6.22bn £6.50bn £6.70bn £6.90bn £7.11bn £7.34bn £7.62bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp £3.54bn £3.82bn £4.05bn £4.27bn £4.49bn £4.76bn £4.96bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year £-3.83bn £-3.96bn £-4.03bn £-4.10bn £-4.19bn £-4.30bn £-2.02bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child £-2.00bn £-1.76bn £-1.58bn £-1.48bn £-1.38bn £-1.28bn £-1.17bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20% £-20.49bn £-21.05bn £-21.50bn £-21.94bn £-22.03bn £-22.40bn £-22.87bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10% £11.07bn £11.51bn £11.84bn £12.14bn £12.49bn £12.83bn £13.23bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp £25.01bn £25.68bn £26.29bn £26.92bn £27.58bn £28.26bn £28.95bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp £2.83bn £3.07bn £3.27bn £3.47bn £3.67bn suppressed suppressed
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10% £-3.03bn £-3.16bn £-3.28bn £-3.35bn £-3.39bn £-3.44bn £-3.51bn
Raise the State Pension by 10% £-7.81bn £-8.07bn £-7.99bn £-8.11bn £-8.36bn £-8.66bn £-9.02bn
Standard reforms: change in each reform's target: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp: change in income_tax £6.36bn £6.65bn £6.86bn £7.07bn £7.28bn £7.52bn £7.80bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp: change in income_tax £3.55bn £3.83bn £4.06bn £4.28bn £4.50bn £4.77bn £4.97bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year: change in income_tax £-3.96bn £-4.10bn £-4.19bn £-4.26bn £-4.36bn £-4.47bn £-1.77bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child: change in child_benefit £2.34bn £2.15bn £1.96bn £1.85bn £1.74bn £1.63bn £1.51bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%: change in universal_credit £20.48bn £21.04bn £21.49bn £21.93bn £22.02bn £22.40bn £22.86bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%: change in national_insurance £11.33bn £11.79bn £12.13bn £12.44bn £12.78bn £13.13bn £13.62bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp: change in vat £25.01bn £25.68bn £26.29bn £26.92bn £27.58bn £28.26bn £28.95bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax £2.83bn £3.07bn £3.27bn £3.47bn £3.67bn suppressed suppressed
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%: change in universal_credit £3.03bn £3.16bn £3.28bn £3.36bn £3.41bn £3.47bn £3.52bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%: change in state_pension £10.72bn £11.23bn £11.37bn £11.62bn £12.08bn £12.54bn £13.07bn

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MaxGhenis marked this pull request as ready for review October 23, 2026 07:27
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@MaxGhenis @claude
Give each Python test shard 75 minutes
75bdc6b 
With five shards the Python test jobs took 45 to 59 minutes on 23 October.
In the merge-queue run for #2213 (run 40034703741), shard 4/5's tests all
passed in 59m32s, and the 60-minute limit then cancelled the job during its
Codecov upload. The queue took #2213 out and rebuilt every group behind it.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

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Add the 2015–2017 Housing Benefit non-dependant deduction scale history

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@anth-volk @MaxGhenis