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Fail pull requests that add changelog fragments towncrier drops - #2324

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Fail pull requests that add changelog fragments towncrier drops#2324
MaxGhenis wants to merge 12 commits into
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changelog-fragment-check

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@MaxGhenis

@MaxGhenis MaxGhenis commented Oct 11, 2026 •
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Fixes #2314. Also fixes the fragment example from #2162 (item 3).

The Changelog fragments check rejects added/changed notes that towncrier drops or mishandles: missing/unknown types, blank or non-UTF-8 content, links/submodules, nested paths and duplicate towncrier keys. bump_version.py counts only typed fragments and warns about untyped files. The original 93 obsolete untyped files remain deleted; the independent infra3 review audited their notes and releases, and found no unreleased change requiring conversion.

Merged current main first, preserving its release preparation and required Test / Result routing. Addressed the independent review's P2: after a release consumes all fragments, a dependency-only manifest update can pass without a synthetic release note. The checker examines every changed path and compares parsed TOML. It permits only uv.lock and actual changes to project.dependencies, project.optional-dependencies, build-system.requires or dependency-groups; all other TOML values and types must match. Deletions, renames, mode/type changes, mixed source/workflow changes and version/backend/Towncrier edits do not qualify. Added fragments still receive all existing validation.

This is a semantic exception for every author, including Dependabot, and it works identically on pull-request and merge-group diffs. A PR-author-only workflow skip would fail again in a merge queue, which has no PR-author context. The Changelog workflow therefore remains active, with no bot/job exemption. Main's prepare_release.py already returns a safe no-release result when no typed fragments remain; it does not call the bump script or publish an empty dependency release. AGENTS, the PR template and engineering guidance describe the same bounded exception.

Validation: the independent review_tests/test_2324_automation.py dependency-only reproducer failed before the fix and passed unchanged afterward (1 case each). The new focused coverage checks permitted dependency fields and lock-only updates, rejects mixed/configuration/version/mode/type/deletion/rename changes, preserves bad-fragment failures, and checks both workflow event types. 124 focused cases passed in 161.56s across changelog fragments, release preparation and the Test / Result workflow contract. After making dependency fixtures independent of current version pins, 27 final cases passed in 77.25s (all 26 new regressions plus the independent reproducer). There are 125 distinct passing cases and no skips. CI links are in the hand-off.

Locked Python 3.13/core 3.33.2, foreground pytest -n 2, BLAS/OpenMP 2 and required load/disk/compressor gates. Formatting, lint, F811/F821 and actionlint are checked before the single push. Documentation edits are contributor guidance; the full book build is not needed for this change. No model, simulation, Budget output or survey-data changes.

Reproducer: policyengine_uk/tests/code_health/test_changelog_fragments.py::test_dependency_only_updates_pass_after_a_release

axiom: n/a: CI and changelog tooling

Independent review and landing remain with the hub. Repository administrators decide required-check settings; this job does not change them.

MaxGhenis and others added 5 commits October 11, 2026 12:47
@MaxGhenis @claude
Fail pull requests that add changelog fragments towncrier drops
521c793 
towncrier writes a fragment to CHANGELOG.md only when its name carries a
configured type; any other file in changelog.d is never read or deleted,
and an empty fragment is left out. Add a Changelog fragments check that
fails a PR adding or changing such a file, and make bump_version.py count
only the fragments towncrier consumes, warning about the rest.

Refs #2314

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis @claude
Delete 93 untyped changelog fragments whose changes were released
9382376 
Each was added by a merged PR whose release is on PyPI (2.86.1 to 2.99.1),
but towncrier never consumed it, so none of their notes reached
CHANGELOG.md and every versioning run since counted them. Converting
them to typed fragments now would file old notes under the next version.
The PR lists each file with its PR, merge date, release and note.

Refs #2314

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis @claude
Test the changelog check and version bump against towncrier itself
041d9c6 
Property and differential tests: bump_version reads the same config and
names as towncrier (parse_toml, parse_newfragment_basename, find_fragments)
across six configurations; every name the check accepts towncrier consumes
with that type; the real towncrier build renders exactly the fragments the
check accepts; the check on a real git repository fails exactly the files
towncrier would drop or that would stop the build; and the bump depends
only on typed fragments. Also catch two fragments that share towncrier's
key, which stops towncrier build and the release.

Refs #2314

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis @claude
Run the changelog check for merge queue groups too
f3d389f 
A required check must also report on merge_group, or the queue waits on
it; diff a group against its base, as pr_code_changes.yaml does in #2306.

Refs #2314

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis @claude
Say exactly what the changelog check fails in the PR guide
15dfe3f 
Refs #2314

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
This was referenced Oct 11, 2026
Merged
Merged
@MaxGhenis @claude
Copy uv.lock into the bump script's test repository
e946276 
#2129 makes bump_version.py move uv.lock's own version too and stop when
the lock is missing; the end-to-end bump tests then still pass.

Refs #2314

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis MaxGhenis mentioned this pull request Oct 11, 2026
Merged
MaxGhenis added a commit that referenced this pull request Oct 11, 2026
@MaxGhenis @claude
Count fragments as the tip's bump_version.py does, old or new
0879f6c 
#2324 makes bump_version.py count only the fragments towncrier consumes
and exit when there are none. prepare_release.py now uses that script's
own classification when it has one (so a commit with only untyped files
releases nothing) and counts every file otherwise, as before. The tests
pass with main's bump_version.py and with #2324's, so the two pull
requests can land in either order. Based on the patch from #2324's
session.

Also merges #2303 (the stale #1968 xfail), which this pull request's
own check rejects as an XPASS until it lands.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
MaxGhenis and others added 2 commits October 11, 2026 19:25
@MaxGhenis
Merge remote-tracking branch 'origin/main' into changelog-fragment-check
a3c34ba
@MaxGhenis @claude
Address review: accurate messages, symlinks, strict config, release t…
d95d020 
…rigger

Sol's review of #2324 (~/reviews/uk-changelog-fragment-check-2026-10-11):
- the test file tripped the cached-array scanner (.partition on a call
  result); parse annotations with a regex instead;
- say a name has no towncrier type only when towncrier reads none; other
  forms it consumes (x.fixed.1.md, x.fixed) are named as such;
- a non-UTF-8 fragment is written with replacement characters, not dropped;
- reject symbolic links, submodule entries and non-UTF-8 file names;
- a type called md no longer breaks 'accepted means consumed as shown';
- bump_version refuses towncrier.toml, sections and issue_pattern, follows
  the project-name package fallback, and stops where towncrier build is
  strict (ignore configured); its annotations are escaped;
- fail a PR that starts the release workflow with no typed fragment left;
- tests for each, and for the five mutants that survived.

Refs #2314

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@juaristi22 juaristi22 mentioned this pull request Oct 17, 2026
Merged
@MaxGhenis

MaxGhenis commented Oct 23, 2026

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Infra backlog hand-off (23 October 2026).

  • Head: ff1eae4f1e03d96caefbb2dabd8255c8aafc62ab on changelog-fragment-check, pushed once. Merged origin/main (c65bced64) first in 14d335473; separate commits implement the fix (1ee8f1d82) and remove dependency-version assumptions from its test fixture (ff1eae4f1). Authorship and shared history preserved.
  • P2 resolved: the missing-fragment guard now accepts a complete dependency-only diff, including the review's manifest-plus-new-lockfile case after release consumes the fragments. It compares parsed TOML values AND types, allowing only project dependencies/optional dependencies, build-system requirements and dependency groups, plus regular uv.lock additions/edits. It rejects mixed source/workflow/configuration/version/backend/Towncrier changes, comment-only manifest edits, deletions, renames and mode/type changes. Every added fragment still receives normal validation.
  • Decision: use the same semantic exception for every author (including Dependabot) and merge queue groups. A PR-author-only job exemption would fail again in a merge group, which has no PR-author context. The workflow remains active on both events, without a bot skip. AGENTS/template/guide document the same bounded exception. Main's prepare_release.py:206-221 already returns a safe no-release result without typed fragments, so there is no empty dependency release or versioning failure to work around.
  • Tests: the unchanged independent infra3 dependency-only reproducer first failed 1 case with the reported P2, then passed 1 case after the fix. Focused foreground pytest -n 2 on test_changelog_fragments.py, test_prepare_release.py, and the Test / Result workflow contract: 124 passed in 161.56s. After the fixture-only follow-up, 27 passed in 77.25s (all 26 new regression cases plus the independent reproducer); 125 distinct passing cases, no skips. Main's safe no-fragment release path and all existing towncrier differential/property cases pass. The checker also accepts this branch's actual diff against main.
  • Checks: local locked Python 3.13/core 3.33.2; make format, uvx ruff format --check . (1,866 files), F811/F821 and actionlint pass. All resource gates passed (load1 <=110, statvfs free >=55 GB decimal, compressor <30 GB), BLAS/OpenMP 2. Documentation changes are contributor guidance; full book build was not rerun. No model/simulation/Budget output or survey-data changes.
  • CI: current-head Code changes has triggered, preserving the now-required Test / Result suite. Changelog, Versioning and other workflows also triggered. Runs are queued at hand-off; remote success is not claimed.
  • Open items: hub's independent review and remote CI completion; repository administrators control required-check settings. Original 93 untyped deletions remain as independently audited in infra3 (no unreleased notes to convert). No merge, close or ready action taken.

@github-actions

github-actions Bot commented Oct 23, 2026 •
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Aggregate impact on certified data: pass

Base 368ce73dcb against head c23c2c2d77, both on enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5 (policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1, sha256 056e80fd8e91), fiscal years 2025-26 to 2031-32. Each year is a full microsimulation run on each side.

Checks: 0 broken by this change, 1 failing on both sides, 0 fixed. Moves flagged for review: 0 (thresholds in report_spec.yaml; a flag does not fail the job).

Workflow run and full report

Notes

  • In the years a figure from fewer than 10 records is suppressed (spending.disabled_students_allowance), every total containing it, and the decile incomes, are rebuilt from their other components, so no published total includes it. Those totals are marked †. A change is withheld where the two sides leave out different figures and can't be lined up.

Moves flagged for review

None.

Spending by benefit and service

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed

Caseloads

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed

Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance)

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise additional rate by 3pp 0 0 0 0 0 suppressed suppressed

Standard reforms: change in each reform's target

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax 0 0 0 0 0 suppressed suppressed

Household net income by decile

No household's net income changes in any year.

No change in any year: receipts by tax head; government balance, each component counted once; model totals; household income totals; population; poverty rates; people in poverty; inequality; mean household net income in each side's own deciles.

Checks failing on both base and head (1)
  • VAT is never negative (sign:vat): 2025-26: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-54,797,972 in total; 2026-27: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-56,271,349 in total; 2027-28: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-57,609,146 in total
Counted-once check

Each of 85 components was raised by £1 per unit in 2026-27, and every head of its totals was read household by household: its own head must rise by exactly £1, no other tax head may move, no other benefit may rise, and the model's own total must move by what its heads moved. A head that breaks a rule is measured again twice: with every other head held at its baseline value, and with every other head held at its value after the first £1 while the component rises again. It fails where either still shows the response. 0 failed; 0 were skipped.

  • widowed_parents_allowance: pension_credit responds only through other heads in fewer than 10 households (other heads that moved there: carers_allowance; gov_spending; not a failure)
  • widowed_parents_allowance: pension_credit responds only through other heads in fewer than 10 households (other heads that moved there: carers_allowance; household_benefits; not a failure)
Provenance
Side Commit Runtime Environment hash Partition hash Time
base main 368ce73dcb uk 2.149.0 (files 82bcb1e99617), core 3.33.2, py 3.13.17 aarch64 5913981f9193 2d09eca13f5d 1630.42s
head #2324 merged into main c23c2c2d77 uk 2.149.0 (files 82bcb1e99617), core 3.33.2, py 3.13.17 aarch64 5913981f9193 2d09eca13f5d 1663.61s

Dataset: hf://policyengine/policyengine-uk-data-private/enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5@2526edbbb687a3b54dbb11272e5389e4b62d2ac2, sha256 056e80fd8e9151d78f432a25cde863340baee81304c6216a37fb575ce8563784 (verified on both sides), policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1.

Receipts by tax head: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Income tax £299.29bn £319.01bn £336.54bn £351.69bn £367.24bn £385.36bn £403.66bn
National Insurance (employee and self-employed) £52.58bn £54.94bn £56.75bn £58.48bn £60.62bn £62.57bn £65.03bn
National Insurance (employer) £152.64bn £159.18bn £164.14bn £168.73bn £176.11bn £181.72bn £188.90bn
Employer NI change borne by capital £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Employer NI change borne by consumers £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Capital gains tax £12.62bn £13.06bn £13.55bn £14.04bn £14.54bn £15.09bn £15.65bn
Student loan repayments £7.83bn £8.12bn £8.35bn £8.56bn £8.79bn £9.04bn £9.38bn
VAT £253.71bn £260.53bn £266.72bn £273.14bn £279.83bn £286.71bn £293.71bn
Change in VAT from its baseline £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
VAT on private school fees £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Fuel duties £24.53bn £24.64bn £26.64bn £26.69bn £26.42bn £25.76bn £26.35bn
Alcohol duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Tobacco duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Vehicle excise duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
TV licence fee £4.28bn £4.43bn £4.44bn £4.46bn £4.48bn £4.51bn £4.53bn
Council tax £49.21bn £51.88bn £54.97bn £58.29bn £61.55bn £64.92bn £68.49bn
High value council tax surcharge £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.48bn £0.49bn £0.51bn £0.52bn
Northern Ireland domestic rates £0.55bn £0.58bn £0.61bn £0.63bn £0.67bn £0.70bn £0.73bn
Business rates £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn
Stamp duty land tax on the household's own purchases £6.93bn £7.42bn £7.85bn £8.26bn £8.68bn £9.09bn £9.51bn
Stamp duty land tax paid by companies £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn
Land transaction tax (Wales) £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Land and buildings transaction tax (Scotland) £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn
Unspecified tax change borne by capital £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Unspecified tax change borne by consumers £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Wealth tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Wealth tax excluding the main residence £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Land value tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Carbon tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Spending by benefit and service: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
State Pension £122.15bn £126.64bn £127.76bn £129.65bn £133.46bn £137.40bn £141.47bn
Pension Credit £6.68bn £7.07bn £7.09bn £7.16bn £7.28bn £7.42bn £7.52bn
Winter Fuel Payment £1.70bn £1.68bn £1.59bn £1.57bn £1.57bn £1.55bn £1.52bn
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland) £0.19bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.21bn £0.21bn £0.22bn £0.22bn
Universal Credit £75.54bn £80.75bn £83.40bn £85.21bn £86.21bn £87.61bn £88.91bn
Housing Benefit £8.59bn £8.93bn £9.19bn £9.33bn £9.61bn £9.87bn £10.15bn
Council Tax Reduction £1.98bn £2.03bn £2.07bn £2.11bn £2.16bn £2.21bn £2.25bn
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related) £0.79bn £0.81bn £0.83bn £0.85bn £0.87bn £0.89bn £0.91bn
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based) £5.22bn £5.36bn £5.49bn £5.62bn £5.76bn £5.90bn £6.04bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based) £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based) £0.29bn £0.30bn £0.30bn £0.31bn £0.32bn £0.33bn £0.33bn
Income Support £0.12bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Working Tax Credit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Child Tax Credit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Incapacity Benefit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Personal Independence Payment £27.05bn £28.19bn £29.28bn £30.02bn £30.75bn £31.51bn £32.28bn
Disability Living Allowance £7.52bn £7.83bn £8.14bn £8.34bn £8.55bn £8.76bn £8.97bn
Attendance Allowance £8.71bn £9.08bn £9.43bn £9.67bn £9.90bn £10.15bn £10.40bn
Carer's Allowance £4.50bn £4.69bn £4.87bn £4.99bn £5.11bn £5.23bn £5.36bn
Carer Support Payment (Scotland) £0.31bn £0.32bn £0.34bn £0.34bn £0.35bn £0.36bn £0.37bn
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland) £0.00bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn
Severe Disablement Allowance £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit £0.51bn £0.52bn £0.53bn £0.54bn £0.56bn £0.57bn £0.59bn
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme £0.61bn £0.62bn £0.64bn £0.65bn £0.67bn £0.69bn £0.70bn
War Widow's or Widower's Pension £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Child Benefit £16.23bn £16.91bn £17.53bn £17.96bn £18.39bn £18.84bn £19.29bn
Scottish Child Payment £0.50bn £0.52bn £0.53bn £0.55bn £0.56bn £0.57bn £0.58bn
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual) £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Healthy Start vouchers £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn
Maternity Allowance £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Statutory Maternity Pay £3.32bn £3.41bn £3.49bn £3.57bn £3.66bn £3.75bn £3.84bn
Statutory Paternity Pay £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Statutory Sick Pay £1.13bn £1.16bn £1.19bn £1.22bn £1.25bn £1.28bn £1.31bn
Sure Start Maternity Grant £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn
Bereavement Support Payment £0.67bn £0.69bn £0.70bn £0.72bn £0.74bn £0.76bn £0.78bn
Widowed Parent's Allowance £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Tax-Free Childcare £0.55bn £0.56bn £0.57bn £0.58bn £0.60bn £0.61bn £0.59bn
Extended childcare entitlement £2.77bn £3.27bn £3.36bn £3.43bn £3.53bn £3.61bn £3.70bn
Universal childcare entitlement £2.26bn £2.45bn £2.51bn £2.58bn £2.64bn £2.72bn £2.78bn
Targeted childcare entitlement £0.47bn £0.49bn £0.50bn £0.51bn £0.52bn £0.53bn £0.47bn
Care to Learn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Childcare Grant £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Parents' Learning Allowance £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn
Adult Dependants' Grant £0.06bn £0.06bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn
Travel Grant £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
NHS spending £204.68bn £205.46bn £206.22bn £207.04bn £207.96bn £208.89bn £209.79bn
State education spending £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn
Transport subsidy spending £25.15bn £25.25bn £25.34bn £25.44bn £25.55bn £25.67bn £25.78bn
Cost-of-living support payment £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Energy Bills Rebate £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Basic income £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Disability basic income £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Other public spending budget change £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Caseloads: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
State Pension 11,308k 11,208k 10,906k 10,812k 10,860k 10,908k 10,955k
Pension Credit 1,491k 1,489k 1,478k 1,459k 1,459k 1,456k 1,453k
Winter Fuel Payment 7,091k 7,011k 6,599k 6,512k 6,493k 6,379k 6,248k
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland) 806k 807k 807k 805k 809k 812k 816k
Universal Credit 6,361k 6,370k 6,404k 6,419k 6,390k 6,387k 6,368k
Housing Benefit 1,254k 1,252k 1,254k 1,239k 1,245k 1,247k 1,249k
Council Tax Reduction 3,187k 3,212k 3,224k 3,245k 3,262k 3,280k 3,294k
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related) 71k 71k 71k 72k 72k 72k 72k
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based) 722k 724k 727k 730k 733k 737k 740k
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based) 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based) 67k 67k 68k 68k 68k 69k 69k
Income Support 25k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Working Tax Credit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Child Tax Credit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Incapacity Benefit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Personal Independence Payment 3,581k 3,595k 3,608k 3,623k 3,639k 3,655k 3,671k
Disability Living Allowance 1,296k 1,301k 1,306k 1,311k 1,317k 1,323k 1,329k
Attendance Allowance 1,701k 1,708k 1,714k 1,721k 1,729k 1,736k 1,744k
Carer's Allowance 1,038k 1,042k 1,046k 1,050k 1,055k 1,059k 1,064k
Carer Support Payment (Scotland) 71k 72k 72k 72k 73k 73k 73k
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland) 0k 72k 72k 72k 73k 73k 73k
Severe Disablement Allowance 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit 137k 138k 139k 139k 140k 140k 141k
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme 94k 94k 94k 95k 95k 95k 96k
War Widow's or Widower's Pension 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Child Benefit 8,136k 8,165k 8,185k 8,215k 8,249k 8,282k 8,314k
Scottish Child Payment 352k 354k 355k 359k 357k 358k 357k
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual) 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Healthy Start vouchers 200k 201k 202k 203k 204k 204k 205k
Maternity Allowance 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Statutory Maternity Pay 334k 335k 336k 338k 339k 341k 342k
Statutory Paternity Pay 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Statutory Sick Pay 182k 183k 183k 184k 185k 186k 186k
Sure Start Maternity Grant 26k 26k 26k 27k 27k 27k 27k
Bereavement Support Payment 98k 98k 99k 99k 100k 100k 101k
Widowed Parent's Allowance 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Tax-Free Childcare 1,018k 1,029k 1,028k 1,033k 1,034k 1,039k 1,023k
Extended childcare entitlement 718k 724k 728k 732k 737k 741k 743k
Universal childcare entitlement 986k 989k 992k 997k 1,002k 1,013k 1,015k
Targeted childcare entitlement 98k 98k 96k 96k 96k 97k 84k
Care to Learn 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Childcare Grant 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Parents' Learning Allowance 98k 99k 99k 100k 100k 100k 101k
Adult Dependants' Grant 18k 18k 12k 13k 13k 13k 13k
Travel Grant 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Cost-of-living support payment 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Energy Bills Rebate 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Basic income 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Disability basic income 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Government balance, each component counted once: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Government receipts, each component once £899.03bn £938.67bn £975.44bn £1,008.36bn £1,044.30bn £1,080.86bn £1,121.34bn
Government spending £530.58bn † £545.59bn † £553.49bn † £560.60bn † £569.15bn † £578.31bn † £587.34bn †
Government balance, each receipt once £368.44bn † £393.08bn † £421.95bn † £447.75bn † £475.14bn † £502.55bn † £534.00bn †
Benefits in household_benefits but not in gov_spending £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Model totals: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
gov_tax £899.03bn £938.67bn £975.44bn £1,008.36bn £1,044.30bn £1,080.86bn £1,121.34bn
household_tax £492.68bn £518.96bn £544.57bn £566.48bn £588.35bn £612.42bn £638.73bn
pre_budget_change_household_tax £484.85bn £510.84bn £536.22bn £557.44bn £579.07bn £602.88bn £628.84bn
gov_spending £530.58bn † £545.59bn † £553.49bn † £560.60bn † £569.15bn † £578.31bn † £587.34bn †
household_benefits £530.58bn † £545.59bn † £553.49bn † £560.60bn † £569.15bn † £578.31bn † £587.34bn †
gov_balance £368.44bn † £393.08bn † £421.95bn † £447.75bn † £475.14bn † £502.55bn † £534.00bn †
Household income totals: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Household market income £1,657.06bn £1,719.25bn £1,771.68bn £1,821.99bn £1,872.88bn £1,930.99bn £2,001.98bn
Household net income £1,655.70bn † £1,705.12bn † £1,738.71bn † £1,773.17bn † £1,809.60bn † £1,851.54bn † £1,903.54bn †
Household net income (HBAI definition) £1,462.17bn £1,509.90bn £1,543.94bn £1,577.28bn £1,611.67bn £1,651.05bn £1,701.84bn
Population: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
People 69,514k 69,778k 70,036k 70,316k 70,626k 70,944k 71,249k
Benefit units 35,247k 35,381k 35,512k 35,654k 35,811k 35,972k 36,127k
Households 31,167k 31,285k 31,401k 31,526k 31,665k 31,808k 31,944k
Poverty rates: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone 16.1% 15.2% 15.5% 15.7% 15.7% 15.8% 15.8%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children 24.2% 21.4% 21.6% 21.6% 21.7% 22.0% 21.8%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 13.9% 13.5% 14.0% 14.2% 14.2% 14.3% 14.3%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 13.7% 13.2% 13.2% 13.4% 13.5% 13.5% 13.5%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone 21.6% 20.9% 21.4% 21.6% 21.9% 22.1% 22.3%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children 33.4% 30.9% 31.1% 31.3% 31.5% 32.0% 32.3%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 19.9% 19.7% 20.3% 20.5% 20.8% 21.0% 21.1%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 12.8% 12.6% 12.6% 12.9% 13.1% 13.4% 13.4%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone 17.2% 16.5% 16.5% 16.6% 16.4% 16.4% 16.4%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children 26.4% 23.7% 23.4% 23.4% 22.9% 23.0% 22.9%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 14.7% 14.4% 14.7% 14.8% 14.7% 14.8% 14.8%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 14.8% 14.8% 14.1% 14.2% 14.0% 14.0% 14.1%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone 21.7% 21.1% 21.3% 21.3% 21.4% 21.4% 21.7%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children 33.5% 31.3% 31.0% 30.8% 31.0% 31.0% 31.5%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 19.9% 19.8% 20.2% 20.3% 20.5% 20.5% 20.7%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 13.0% 12.7% 12.6% 12.2% 12.1% 12.2% 12.5%
People in poverty: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone 11,163k 10,583k 10,866k 11,011k 11,088k 11,228k 11,233k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children 3,629k 3,221k 3,263k 3,284k 3,310k 3,369k 3,350k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 5,902k 5,806k 6,087k 6,198k 6,235k 6,305k 6,321k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 1,632k 1,556k 1,515k 1,529k 1,543k 1,555k 1,562k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone 15,000k 14,571k 14,968k 15,173k 15,433k 15,708k 15,854k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children 5,004k 4,656k 4,703k 4,745k 4,808k 4,897k 4,966k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 8,476k 8,431k 8,814k 8,960k 9,130k 9,273k 9,341k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 1,520k 1,484k 1,451k 1,468k 1,496k 1,538k 1,547k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone 11,974k 11,507k 11,542k 11,648k 11,548k 11,670k 11,705k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children 3,963k 3,570k 3,543k 3,553k 3,489k 3,519k 3,518k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 6,246k 6,184k 6,378k 6,475k 6,459k 6,538k 6,554k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 1,765k 1,753k 1,621k 1,620k 1,600k 1,613k 1,633k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone 15,067k 14,732k 14,895k 14,945k 15,110k 15,214k 15,475k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children 5,019k 4,715k 4,686k 4,669k 4,725k 4,753k 4,839k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 8,497k 8,516k 8,764k 8,884k 8,994k 9,060k 9,195k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 1,551k 1,502k 1,445k 1,392k 1,391k 1,401k 1,441k
Inequality: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Gini coefficient, equivalised HBAI income before housing costs 0.3088 0.3061 0.3068 0.3074 0.3078 0.3084 0.3095
Mean household net income in each side's own deciles: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household £17,841 † £18,023 † £18,040 † £18,084 † £18,438 † £18,627 † £18,803 †
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household £28,086 † £29,021 † £28,787 † £29,226 † £29,487 † £29,939 † £30,568 †
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household £34,361 † £35,678 † £36,193 † £36,764 † £37,055 † £37,700 † £38,313 †
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household £38,776 † £40,951 † £42,048 † £42,647 † £43,424 † £44,189 † £44,704 †
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household £43,948 † £44,841 † £45,903 † £46,641 † £47,851 † £48,655 † £49,864 †
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household £48,438 † £49,772 † £50,873 † £51,669 † £51,947 † £53,410 † £54,725 †
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household £56,400 † £57,626 † £58,395 † £59,133 † £60,160 † £60,960 † £62,360 †
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household £69,281 † £70,763 † £72,241 † £73,343 † £74,868 † £76,016 † £78,283 †
Decile 9: mean household_net_income per household £79,811 † £82,188 † £83,310 † £84,759 † £86,323 † £87,891 † £90,929 †
Decile 10: mean household_net_income per household £117,852 † £120,687 † £122,639 † £124,783 † £127,005 † £129,364 † £132,261 †
Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance): head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp £6.22bn £6.50bn £6.70bn £6.90bn £7.11bn £7.34bn £7.62bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp £3.54bn £3.82bn £4.05bn £4.27bn £4.49bn £4.76bn £4.96bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year £-3.83bn £-3.96bn £-4.03bn £-4.10bn £-4.19bn £-4.30bn £-2.02bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child £-2.00bn £-1.76bn £-1.58bn £-1.48bn £-1.38bn £-1.28bn £-1.17bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20% £-20.49bn £-21.05bn £-21.50bn £-21.94bn £-22.03bn £-22.40bn £-22.87bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10% £11.07bn £11.51bn £11.84bn £12.14bn £12.49bn £12.83bn £13.23bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp £25.01bn £25.68bn £26.29bn £26.92bn £27.58bn £28.26bn £28.95bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp £2.83bn £3.07bn £3.27bn £3.47bn £3.67bn suppressed suppressed
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10% £-3.03bn £-3.16bn £-3.28bn £-3.35bn £-3.39bn £-3.44bn £-3.51bn
Raise the State Pension by 10% £-7.81bn £-8.07bn £-7.99bn £-8.11bn £-8.36bn £-8.66bn £-9.02bn
Standard reforms: change in each reform's target: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp: change in income_tax £6.36bn £6.65bn £6.86bn £7.07bn £7.28bn £7.52bn £7.80bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp: change in income_tax £3.55bn £3.83bn £4.06bn £4.28bn £4.50bn £4.77bn £4.97bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year: change in income_tax £-3.96bn £-4.10bn £-4.19bn £-4.26bn £-4.36bn £-4.47bn £-1.77bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child: change in child_benefit £2.34bn £2.15bn £1.96bn £1.85bn £1.74bn £1.63bn £1.51bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%: change in universal_credit £20.48bn £21.04bn £21.49bn £21.93bn £22.02bn £22.40bn £22.86bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%: change in national_insurance £11.33bn £11.79bn £12.13bn £12.44bn £12.78bn £13.13bn £13.62bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp: change in vat £25.01bn £25.68bn £26.29bn £26.92bn £27.58bn £28.26bn £28.95bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax £2.83bn £3.07bn £3.27bn £3.47bn £3.67bn suppressed suppressed
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%: change in universal_credit £3.03bn £3.16bn £3.28bn £3.36bn £3.41bn £3.47bn £3.52bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%: change in state_pension £10.72bn £11.23bn £11.37bn £11.62bn £12.08bn £12.54bn £13.07bn

@MaxGhenis @claude
Merge main and preserve lock-first changelog version updates
66aecb9 
Retain tomllib and dataclass imports. Supply Towncrier configuration to the newer-main version-bump fixture and require the intended lock failure diagnostics.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis
MaxGhenis marked this pull request as ready for review October 23, 2026 19:40
@MaxGhenis
MaxGhenis added this pull request to the merge queue Oct 23, 2026
Any commits made after this event will not be merged.

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Untyped changelog fragments are silently left out of CHANGELOG.md

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