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Model the 25p State Pension age addition at 80 - #2340

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Model the 25p State Pension age addition at 80#2340
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@MaxGhenis MaxGhenis commented Oct 11, 2026 •
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Fixes #2139

Stacked on #2336 (fixes #1941). Both change how the reported State Pension is split, so this branch is built on #2336's head and its diff includes #2336 until that merges. Review this PR's own changes with git diff <#2336 head>...<this head>. The base is main so CI runs. Merge #2336 first.

What and why

The 25p a week age addition at 80 was not modelled. The survey's reported State Pension includes it for basic State Pension recipients over 80, and the model booked that 25p as additional pension, uprated it each year, and never paid it to anyone who turned 80 in a later year. This PR models it as the law sets it: a fixed 25p a week, never uprated, for a person over 80 on a retirement pension under the 1992 Act.

Law

  • SSCBA 1992 s.79(1): "A person who is over the age of 80 and entitled to a retirement pension of any category under this Act shall be entitled to an increase of the pension, to be known as 'age addition'."
  • s.79(3) and Sch 4 Part III para 8: £0.25 a week.
  • s.173: a person is over an age once they have attained it, so the test is age ≥ 80.
  • The words "under this Act" in s.79(1) were inserted by the Pensions Act 2014 Sch 12 para 85. A new State Pension is paid under Part 1 of the 2014 Act, so it gets no age addition.
  • Never uprated: each Up-rating Order excludes it (SI 2026/148 art 3(2)(a)).
  • Income: Pension Credit counts it as retirement pension income (SPCA 2002 s.16(1)(e)), as do Universal Credit (UC Regs 2013 regs 66(1)(a), 67) and pension-age Housing Benefit (HB (SPC) Regs 2006 reg 29(1)(c)). It is taxed with the pension it increases (ITEPA 2003 s.577 names the SSCBA retirement pensions; s.677 does not exempt the addition).
  • Overlapping benefits:
    • Carer's Allowance: an age addition is adjusted only by reference to another age addition (SI 1979/597 reg 4(3); Sch 1 row 4, "except any age addition"), so it never reduces Carer's Allowance.
    • Carer Support Payment (Scotland): SSI 2023/302 reg 16(3)(a) and (6) overlap it with a Retirement Pension, "a pension payable under Part II and Part III of the 1992 Act, excluding any additional pension or graduated retirement benefit". The age addition is in Part III and is not excluded, so it does reduce Carer Support Payment.

Change

  • Parameters gov.dwp.state_pension.age_addition.amount (£0.25 a week from 1992, no uprating) and .age (80).
  • state_pension_age_addition (Person, year): the weekly amount × WEEKS_IN_YEAR for a person aged 80 or over (age read on 6 October, as for State Pension age) with a BASIC State Pension type and either a reported State Pension in the data year or a basic or additional State Pension in the year. Otherwise 0.
  • state_pension_reported_excluding_age_addition: the reported amount less the data year's legislated addition, floored at 0. basic_state_pension, new_state_pension and additional_state_pension now split this amount, so the addition is neither counted twice nor uprated as additional pension.
  • state_pension adds state_pension_age_addition. Pension Credit, UC, HB, CTR and gov_spending all read state_pension, so they count it once.
  • overlapping_state_pension (Carer's Allowance) leaves the addition out, as before. New carer_support_payment_overlapping_state_pension keeps it in, and Carer Support Payment's overlapping-benefit list now uses it. The two share one helper.
  • Docs: the State Pension page's Components section, the two edges below, and the "What's been fixed" table.

Edges, documented:

  • A basic recipient over 80 whose reported amount is below the addition (under 25p a week) is paid £13 a year, more than they reported. The data-year identity below is stated for reports of at least 25p a week.
  • The contributed gov.contrib.cec.state_pension_increase reform scales state_pension as a whole, age addition included, although no Up-rating Order raises it.

Out of scope: the Category D retirement pension (s.78(3)), tracked in #2339.

Tests

  • policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/gov/dwp/state_pension_age_addition.yaml: £13 at 80; none at 79; none on a new State Pension at 85; none below State Pension age; the same £13 in 2025, 2026 and 2030; a reported full basic rate plus 25p gives the full basic rate, no additional pension, and the addition.
  • carer_support_payment_overlapping_benefits.yaml Case 6: at 80 with £2,000 basic and £5,000 additional State Pension, the Carer Support Payment overlap is £2,013 and the payment £86.45 × 52 − £2,013, while the Carer's Allowance overlap stays £2,000. Case 6a: at 79, £2,000.
  • test_state_pension_components.py: dataset-built cases and Hypothesis properties (below).
  • test_carer_overlapping_benefits_properties.py: the Carer Support Payment reference overlap now includes the age addition (and Carer's Allowance's still leaves it out). Its explicit example of a Scottish carer aged 80 fails by £13 with the old shared reference and passes with the split one.

Fail on the base (#2336's head fa27e4948), pass on this head: with only this PR's test files copied into a detached #2336 tree, the three YAML files give 17 failed and 31 passed, and test_state_pension_components.py gives 12 failed and 21 passed (5 min 57 s, -n 4). The failures are the age addition cases and the dataset-built cases where an over-80 basic recipient's 25p is still split as additional pension. Three of them error because the new variable or parameters do not exist on the base. Logs: ~/reviews/w7-uk-defects-2026-10-11/impact/r2/fob-2340-{yaml,py}.log. On this head all 48 YAML cases and the four carer overlap properties pass, and CI runs the full suite.

Invariants (property tests)

  • In the data year, with no reform, basic + additional + new + age addition equals the reported amount for every record over State Pension age with a type and a reported amount of at least 25p a week. This is a differential against the model without the addition.
  • The addition is 0 or exactly the fixed amount, and constant across years.
  • It is 0 for NEW and NONE types and under 80.
  • Reforms to the 25p do not move the other components, because the reported amount is split at the legislated amount.

Impact on the certified pair

Real Microsimulation runs on enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5 from policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1 (sha256 056e80fd8e91…, the dataset in policyengine.py's certified UK bundle). Base: #2336 at fa27e4948 (so the table is this PR's own effect). Head: this PR at 9ace2cafd. Both trees clean.

£m change 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31
additional_state_pension -33.67 -34.48 -35.93 -36.82 -37.74 -38.67 -39.62
basic_state_pension -12.20 -12.79 -13.46 -14.03 -14.44 -14.87 -15.31
new_state_pension +0.00 +0.00 +0.00 +0.00 +0.00 +0.00 +0.00
state_pension_age_addition +45.87 +46.20 +46.37 +46.55 +46.73 +46.94 +47.15
state_pension +0.00 -1.08 -3.01 -4.31 -5.46 -6.60 -7.78
pension_credit -0.00 +0.28 +0.70 +0.99 +1.24 +1.48 +1.72
housing_benefit +0.00 +0.00 +0.01 +0.01 +0.02 +0.02 +0.03
universal_credit +0.00 – – – – – –
council_tax_reduction +0.00 +0.00 +0.01 +0.01 +0.01 +0.01 +0.02
income_tax -0.00 -0.11 -0.38 -0.55 -0.76 -0.95 -1.21
household_net_income +0.00 – – – – – –
gov_tax -0.00 – – – – – –
gov_spending +0.00 – – – – – –
gov_balance – – – – – – –
Records changed 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
additional_state_pension 6356 6356 6356 6356 6356 6356 6356
basic_state_pension 1314 1314 1314 1314 1314 1314 1314
new_state_pension 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
state_pension_age_addition 7666 7666 7666 7666 7666 7666 7666
state_pension 0 7666 7666 7666 7666 7666 7666
pension_credit 0 630 637 628 627 626 626
housing_benefit 0 61 56 61 59 59 59
universal_credit 0 2 2 2 2 2 2
council_tax_reduction 0 182 184 184 182 187 193
income_tax 0 5792 5959 6070 6185 6252 6322
household_net_income 7 6019 6020 6037 6045 6054 6059
gov_tax 0 5213 5349 5440 5534 5591 5655
gov_spending 0 6096 6110 6129 6138 6147 6159
gov_balance 1 6016 6020 6038 6042 6049 6055

state_pension_age_addition 2030-31: head total £47.15m; weighted recipients 3,626,819
state_pension_age_addition 2024-25: head total £45.87m; weighted recipients 3,528,325

  • The addition: £45.9m in 2024-25, 3.53m weighted recipients (basic State Pension, 80 or over) × £13. It stays £13 a head, so the total moves only with the number of recipients.
  • Data year (2024-25): state_pension does not change. The 25p each recipient reported moves from additional pension (and, for partial pensions below the full basic rate, from basic State Pension) to the addition.
  • Later years: state_pension falls £1.1m in 2025-26 and £7.8m in 2030-31, because that 25p was previously uprated each year, as additional pension (£33.7m of it, by September CPI) or, for partial pensions below the full basic rate, as basic State Pension (£12.2m, by the triple lock), and is now fixed. Pension Credit rises slightly and income tax falls slightly.
  • Disclosure: Universal Credit changes for two dataset records each year, so this table withholds it, and the totals it could be recovered from (gov_spending, gov_balance, household_net_income, and gov_tax). In 2024-25 gov_balance changes for one record by rounding. Poverty rates do not move (0.000pp where shown).
  • The CI "Aggregate impact on certified data" comments (which print figures at their own precision) compare against main, not Uprate additional State Pension and protected payments by September CPI #2336, so it shows Uprate additional State Pension and protected payments by CPI, not the flat rate #1941 and State Pension age addition (25p a week at 80, SSCBA 1992 s.79) is not modelled #2139 together; its State Pension line is main→this head (e.g. −£353.8m in 2025-26, against −£352.7m for Uprate additional State Pension and protected payments by September CPI #2336 alone).

Overlaps

Review

  • GPT-6.1 Sol reviewed 972564b0a: REQUEST_CHANGES. It found the Carer Support Payment overlap error (SSI 2023/302 reg 16(6)), fixed in f7e8df354, and the placeholder body, now replaced.
  • Its delta review of 9ace2cafd: REQUEST_CHANGES. The carer overlap property test still used one reference for both benefits and failed in CI. Fixed in bc81c8891 (test only). It also had wording notes, applied here. A delta review of bc81c8891 follows.

axiom: TheAxiomFoundation/rulespec-uk#458 queued

Reproducer: policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/gov/dwp/state_pension_age_addition.yaml, policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/gov/social_security_scotland/carer_support_payment_overlapping_benefits.yaml::Case 6, the additional pension in an old State Pension does not overlap; at 80 its age addition does (SSI 2023/302 reg 16(6))., policyengine_uk/tests/test_state_pension_components.py::test_full_basic_rate_plus_age_addition_is_never_additional_pension

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

MaxGhenis and others added 2 commits October 11, 2026 13:41
@MaxGhenis @claude
Uprate additional State Pension and protected payments by September CPI
bcdee62 
The part of a reported State Pension above the type's full rate (additional
pension for the basic State Pension, protected payments for the new) was
uprated by the full rate's own triple-lock rise. Each Up-rating Order raises
it by September CPI instead (SSAA 1992 ss.150(1)(c), 151 and 151A; SI
2026/148 arts 4(3) and 6(3)(b): 3.8% against 4.8% for the full rates; SI
2025/295: 1.7% against 4.1%). Uprate it by
gov.economic_assumptions.indices.september_cpi_uprating from the data year,
read from the simulation's own parameters, so a reform to the full rates or
the triple lock no longer moves it and a price scenario does.

Fixes #1941.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis @claude
Model the 25p State Pension age addition at 80
16f87a0 
SSCBA 1992 s.79(1) and (3) and Sch 4 Part III para 8 give a person over 80
who is entitled to a retirement pension under that Act 25p a week, which each
Up-rating Order leaves out (SI 2026/148 art 3(2)(a)). A new State Pension
does not count (s.79(1) as amended by the Pensions Act 2014 Sch 12 para 85).

Add gov.dwp.state_pension.age_addition (amount, age) and
state_pension_age_addition, and count it in state_pension. The survey's
State Pension amount is taken to include the addition, so
state_pension_reported_excluding_age_addition takes the data year's
legislated addition off before basic_state_pension, new_state_pension and
additional_state_pension split it: it is neither counted twice nor uprated
as additional pension. It never reduces a carer benefit (SI 1979/597 reg
4(3), Sch 1 row 4), so overlapping_state_pension leaves it out.

Fixes #2139.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis MaxGhenis mentioned this pull request Oct 11, 2026
Open
MaxGhenis and others added 12 commits October 11, 2026 16:00
@MaxGhenis @claude
Compare float32 model output with a float32 tolerance; pass rate refo…
368ebb0 
…rms as a reform

CI found two test faults (run 38161065391): the differential against main's
formula compared the model's float32 arrays with a float64 reference at
rtol 1e-12, which fails for any reported amount float32 cannot hold exactly
(e.g. £169.00 a week, aged 98); and a Scenario cannot take the reform
dictionary's "2026-01-01.2100-12-31" period, so that case passes it as a
reform.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis @claude
Read age addition entitlement from the components as well; update car…
f4e18b1 
…er overlap tests

A simulation given basic or additional State Pension directly, with no
reported amount, now gets the age addition at 80 too. The carer overlap
tests' 80-year-olds report amounts that include the 25p: it moves from
additional pension to the age addition, and in case 8 it no longer reduces
Carer's Allowance (SI 1979/597 reg 4(3); Sch 1 row 4).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis @claude
Merge #2336's test fix into the age addition branch
899ca10 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis @claude
Check the data-year identity with the float32 tolerance
1027203 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis @claude
Separate the CPI scenario test from the triple lock; note the impact …
15bb98d 
…in the docs

At 5% September CPI the triple lock also rose 5%, so the scenario test passed
on main. At 1%, below the triple lock's 2.5% floor, the add-on rises 1% and
the full rates at least 2.5%. The docs record the change in the model's State
Pension against DWP's forecast, from full runs on the certified dataset.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis @claude
Merge origin/main into asp-cpi-uprating-1941
4b9264f 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis @claude
Merge origin/main into the age addition branch
528b8a8 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis @claude
Compare the age addition with the reported amount the model holds; ex…
5234997 
…pect none on a new State Pension

CI run 38170838155 failed three of the age addition tests. None was a model
defect:

- The two components-add-up properties drew a weekly amount of 8.3e-246
  (and 2.2e-313). state_pension_reported is a float variable, stored in
  float32, so the simulation holds it as nil and rightly pays no age
  addition; the reference read the float64 draw and expected 25p. The
  reference now reads each report as the simulation holds it, and the two
  CI examples (and a tiny amount float32 does hold) are pinned as
  examples.
- The age addition reform test expected £10 a week for both records in
  2030-31. Held at 77, the second record is on the new State Pension by
  then, and the age addition belongs only to a retirement pension under
  the 1992 Act (s.79(1)), reformed or not. The test now asserts each
  year's type and expects the addition only on the basic State Pension.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis @claude
Merge #2336 (asp-cpi-uprating-1941 at 4b9264f) into the age addition …
0e2d7ac 
…branch

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis @claude
Merge origin/main into asp-cpi-uprating-1941
2fd0c7a 
Keep the September CPI uprating in additional_state_pension: main's
np.divide guard (00c07d6) was on the full-rate ratio this branch replaces.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis @claude
Say precisely why the model taxes the age addition with the pension
03adbc9 
ITEPA 2003 s.577(2) lists the SSCBA 1992 retirement pension sections but not
s.79, so the docs now say the model taxes the age addition as part of the
pension it increases (s.79(1)), and that s.677 does not exempt it.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis @codex
Clarify the statutory uprating basis and forecast comparison
4a6b736 
Co-Authored-By: GPT-6 <noreply@openai.com>
@MaxGhenis MaxGhenis mentioned this pull request Oct 12, 2026
Merged
MaxGhenis and others added 6 commits October 20, 2026 17:38
@MaxGhenis @claude
Merge origin/main (76cfc9e) into asp-cpi-uprating-1941
4e495b7 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis @claude
Merge #2336 (asp-cpi-uprating-1941 at 4e495b7, carrying main 76cfc9e)…
972564b 
… into the age addition branch

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis @claude
Count the age addition in the Carer Support Payment overlap
f7e8df3 
SSI 2023/302 reg 16(3)(a) and (6) overlap Carer Support Payment with a
Retirement Pension "payable under Part II and Part III of the 1992 Act,
excluding any additional pension or graduated retirement benefit". The age
addition (SSCBA 1992 s.79, Part III) is not excluded, unlike for Carer's
Allowance (SI 1979/597 reg 4(3)). Split the overlap into
overlapping_state_pension (Carer's Allowance, unchanged) and
carer_support_payment_overlapping_state_pension, sharing one helper.
Correct CSP Case 6 to £2,013 and add the under-80 case. Document the two
edges the review named: a report below 25p a week, and the contributed
state_pension_increase reform scaling the addition.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis @claude
Label the per-recipient growth as pre-fix; state the forecast-year fl…
f1b2909 
…oor and two simplifications

From the independent review of 4e495b7: the 17.0% per-recipient growth
came from runs before this fix; from April 2027 SSAA 1992 ss.150(2) and
151A(3) set a floor ("not less than" the rise in prices) that the model pays
exactly; contracted-out records and additional pension inside a partial
basic pension are simplified.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis @claude
Drop an unverified contracted-out note from the State Pension docs
fa27e49 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis @claude
Merge #2336 (asp-cpi-uprating-1941 at fa27e49) into the age addition …
9ace2ca 
…branch

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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Aggregate impact on certified data: pass

Base ecd531776e against head 7774f5e09f, both on enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5 (policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1, sha256 056e80fd8e91), fiscal years 2025-26 to 2031-32. Each year is a full microsimulation run on each side.

Checks: 0 broken by this change, 1 failing on both sides, 0 fixed. Moves flagged for review: 109 (thresholds in report_spec.yaml; a flag does not fail the job).

Workflow run and full report

Notes

  • In the years a figure from fewer than 10 records is suppressed (spending.disabled_students_allowance), every total containing it, and the decile incomes, are rebuilt from their other components, so no published total includes it. Those totals are marked †. A change is withheld where the two sides leave out different figures and can't be lined up.

Moves flagged for review

Measure Year Base Head Change
Raise the State Pension by 10%: change in state_pension 2025-26 £12.25bn £10.72bn -£1.53bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%: change in state_pension 2026-27 £12.71bn £11.23bn -£1.48bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%: change in state_pension 2027-28 £12.83bn £11.37bn -£1.46bn
Raise the State Pension by 10% 2025-26 £-8.92bn £-7.81bn +£1.11bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%: change in state_pension 2028-29 £13.02bn £11.62bn -£1.40bn
Raise the State Pension by 10% 2026-27 £-9.13bn £-8.06bn +£1.06bn
Raise the State Pension by 10% 2027-28 £-9.03bn £-7.99bn +£1.03bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%: change in state_pension 2029-30 £13.41bn £12.08bn -£1.32bn
Raise the State Pension by 10% 2028-29 £-9.06bn £-8.10bn +£959.2m
Raise the State Pension by 10%: change in state_pension 2030-31 £13.80bn £12.54bn -£1.26bn
Raise the State Pension by 10% 2029-30 £-9.26bn £-8.36bn +£901.5m
Raise the State Pension by 10% 2030-31 £-9.51bn £-8.66bn +£855.0m
Raise the State Pension by 10%: change in state_pension 2031-32 £14.21bn £13.07bn -£1.14bn
Raise the State Pension by 10% 2031-32 £-9.78bn £-9.02bn +£759.5m
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household 2029-30 £48,379 £48,027 -£353
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 2031-32 1,475k 1,523k +48.2k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 2029-30 1,487k 1,533k +46.5k
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household 2029-30 £43,186 £43,435 +£249
State Pension 2030-31 £138.02bn £137.23bn -£789.7m
State Pension 2028-29 £130.21bn £129.47bn -£744.0m
State Pension 2029-30 £134.05bn £133.29bn -£765.5m
State Pension 2027-28 £128.28bn £127.56bn -£718.1m
State Pension 2031-32 £142.08bn £141.31bn -£773.6m
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 2028-29 1,634k 1,673k +38.9k
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household 2031-32 £63,192 £62,893 -£300
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household 2031-32 £45,129 £44,926 -£203
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 2027-28 1,625k 1,661k +36.5k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 2030-31 1,509k 1,541k +32.0k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 2031-32 12.8% 13.2% +0.42pp
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 2029-30 13.0% 13.4% +0.41pp
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 2030-31 1,457k 1,486k +28.5k
State Pension 2026-27 £127.12bn £126.63bn -£480.8m
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 2028-29 1,466k 1,493k +26.8k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 2028-29 14.3% 14.7% +0.34pp
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 2025-26 1,605k 1,631k +26.0k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 2027-28 14.1% 14.4% +0.32pp
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 2031-32 1,661k 1,686k +24.3k
State Pension 2025-26 £122.50bn £122.15bn -£353.8m
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 2030-31 13.1% 13.4% +0.28pp
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 2028-29 1,458k 1,477k +19.3k

69 more flags are in the report artifact.

Receipts by tax head

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Income tax -£67.8m -£97.1m -£148.5m -£158.1m -£165.2m -£173.1m -£168.7m
Capital gains tax -£69,402 -£0.1m -£0.2m -£0.2m -£0.2m -£0.2m -£0.2m
TV licence fee -£20,477 -£74,024 -£86,209 -£0.7m -£0.3m -£0.4m -£0.2m

Spending by benefit and service

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
State Pension -£353.8m -£480.8m -£718.1m -£744.0m -£765.5m -£789.7m -£773.6m
Pension Credit +£23.3m +£30.3m +£44.3m +£46.5m +£49.2m +£52.2m +£55.2m
Winter Fuel Payment +£0.2m +£1.0m +£2.0m +£2.4m +£0.6m +£0.9m +£3.1m
Universal Credit +£0.2m +£87,292 +£0.2m +£0.2m +£0.2m +£0.1m +£98,496
Housing Benefit +£2.0m +£4.8m +£3.6m +£3.9m +£6.8m +£6.6m +£4.6m
Council Tax Reduction +£1.3m +£2.2m +£3.3m +£3.5m +£3.9m +£4.1m +£3.7m
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed

Caseloads

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Pension Credit +958 +524 +425 +3.6k +1.9k +2.7k +2.9k
Winter Fuel Payment +998 +3.6k +7.1k +8.3k +2.3k +3.3k +11.4k
Universal Credit 0 0 0 +430 +432 +434 +293
Housing Benefit 0 +305 -190 -190 +247 +248 0
Council Tax Reduction +2.1k +1.0k +1.6k +1.3k +3.0k +1.2k +437
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed

Government balance, each component counted once

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Government receipts, each component once -£67.9m -£97.3m -£148.8m -£158.9m -£165.7m -£173.7m -£169.1m
Government spending -£326.8m † -£442.4m † -£664.7m † -£687.6m † -£704.9m † -£725.7m † -£706.8m †
Government balance, each receipt once +£258.9m † +£345.1m † +£515.9m † +£528.6m † +£539.2m † +£552.0m † +£537.7m †

Model totals

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
gov_tax -£67.9m -£97.3m -£148.8m -£158.9m -£165.7m -£173.7m -£169.1m
household_tax -£67.9m -£97.3m -£148.8m -£158.9m -£165.7m -£173.7m -£169.1m
pre_budget_change_household_tax -£67.9m -£97.3m -£148.8m -£158.9m -£165.7m -£173.7m -£169.1m
gov_spending -£326.8m † -£442.4m † -£664.7m † -£687.6m † -£704.9m † -£725.7m † -£706.8m †
household_benefits -£326.8m † -£442.4m † -£664.7m † -£687.6m † -£704.9m † -£725.7m † -£706.8m †
gov_balance +£258.9m † +£345.1m † +£515.9m † +£528.6m † +£539.2m † +£552.0m † +£537.7m †

Household income totals

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Household net income -£258.9m † -£345.1m † -£515.9m † -£528.6m † -£539.2m † -£552.0m † -£537.7m †
Household net income (HBAI definition) -£259.0m -£345.2m -£516.0m -£528.8m -£539.3m -£552.2m -£537.9m

Poverty rates

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone +0.01pp +0.01pp +0.02pp +0.02pp +0.02pp +0.02pp +0.02pp
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 0 +0.00pp +0.00pp +0.00pp +0.00pp +0.00pp +0.00pp
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners +0.05pp +0.08pp +0.09pp +0.12pp +0.12pp +0.10pp +0.12pp
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone +0.01pp +0.01pp +0.01pp +0.04pp +0.07pp +0.05pp +0.01pp
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults +0.00pp 0 +0.00pp +0.00pp +0.00pp +0.00pp 0
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners +0.03pp +0.03pp +0.06pp +0.24pp +0.41pp +0.28pp +0.03pp
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone +0.03pp +0.01pp +0.05pp +0.06pp +0.00pp -0.05pp -0.05pp
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children 0 0 0 0 -0.03pp -0.19pp -0.25pp
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults +0.00pp 0 +0.00pp +0.00pp -0.02pp -0.04pp -0.06pp
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners +0.17pp +0.07pp +0.32pp +0.34pp +0.11pp +0.07pp +0.21pp
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone +0.06pp +0.00pp -0.05pp +0.03pp -0.05pp +0.03pp +0.06pp
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children -0.00pp 0 -0.18pp 0 -0.18pp -0.00pp -0.02pp
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults +0.05pp +0.00pp -0.07pp +0.00pp -0.03pp -0.01pp -0.01pp
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners +0.22pp +0.02pp +0.17pp +0.17pp +0.03pp +0.25pp +0.42pp

People in poverty

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone +6.2k +10.0k +10.6k +13.9k +14.0k +12.4k +14.1k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 0 +1 +175 +20 +20 +657 +639
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners +6.2k +10.0k +10.4k +13.9k +14.0k +11.8k +13.4k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone +3.6k +3.9k +7.5k +27.1k +46.7k +32.2k +3.8k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults +152 0 +227 +228 +229 +230 0
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners +3.5k +3.9k +7.3k +26.8k +46.5k +32.0k +3.8k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone +20.1k +8.3k +36.7k +39.6k +1.6k -35.4k -37.9k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children 0 0 0 0 -3.8k -28.4k -37.7k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults +0 0 +167 +653 -6.6k -15.6k -24.5k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners +20.1k +8.3k +36.5k +38.9k +12.1k +8.6k +24.3k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone +45.1k +2.8k -36.6k +19.6k -38.7k +23.7k +42.3k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children -667 0 -27.3k 0 -27.6k -166 -3.0k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults +19.8k +152 -28.5k +228 -15.1k -4.6k -2.9k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners +26.0k +2.7k +19.2k +19.3k +4.0k +28.5k +48.2k

Inequality

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Gini coefficient, equivalised HBAI income before housing costs +0.0001 +0.0001 +0.0001 +0.0001 +0.0001 +0.0001 +0.0001

Mean household net income in each side's own deciles

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household -£6.94 † -£1.28 † -£7.48 † -£0.61 † +£1.81 † -£16 † -£3.83 †
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household -£40 † +£52 † +£33 † -£76 † -£44 † -£46 † -£15 †
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household +£21 † -£79 † -£63 † +£90 † -£43 † -£13 † -£21 †
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household +£5.16 † -£105 † -£49 † -£5.12 † +£249 † +£41 † -£203 †
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household -£15 † +£3.26 † +£1.37 † -£30 † -£353 † -£70 † -£37 †
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household -£0.36 † +£9.44 † +£18 † -£9.84 † -£2.67 † +£14 † -£17 †
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household -£1.43 † -£10 † +£3.89 † +£8.31 † +£25 † +£13 † -£300 †
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household +£19 † -£3.41 † +£38 † -£57 † +£26 † +£8.25 † +£17 †
Decile 9: mean household_net_income per household -£38 † -£18 † -£52 † +£42 † -£28 † +£0.52 † +£5.35 †
Decile 10: mean household_net_income per household -£5.51 † +£25 † +£7.63 † -£10 † +£29 † -£8.88 † +£1.95 †

Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance)

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp -£2.6m -£3.4m -£5.4m -£5.7m -£5.8m -£5.9m -£5.7m
Raise higher rate by 1pp -£0.3m -£0.4m -£0.7m -£0.8m -£1.0m -£1.0m -£0.9m
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year +£0.9m +£0.9m +£3.3m +£5.6m +£4.7m +£3.8m +£96,003
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child +£0 +£18 +£4 +£8 -£3,130 0 -£1,591
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20% -£0.3m -£0.6m -£0.9m -£0.7m -£0.3m -£0.3m -£0.3m
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10% +£359 +£10 +£127 +£84 -£120 +£98 +£155
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp -£317 -£92 -£277 +£317 -£271 -£555 -£170
Raise additional rate by 3pp -£42,410 -£52,654 -£85,367 -£95,447 -£0.1m -£0.1m -£0.1m
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10% -£300 -£19 -£18 -£23,659 -£56,817 -£0.1m -£0.1m
Raise the State Pension by 10% +£1.11bn +£1.06bn +£1.03bn +£959.2m +£901.5m +£855.0m +£759.5m

Standard reforms: change in each reform's target

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp: change in income_tax -£2.7m -£3.9m -£5.9m -£6.2m -£6.3m -£6.6m -£6.4m
Raise higher rate by 1pp: change in income_tax -£0.3m -£0.4m -£0.7m -£0.8m -£1.0m -£1.0m -£0.9m
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year: change in income_tax +£1.3m +£3.1m +£1.6m +£4.2m +£2.8m +£2.1m +£0.5m
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%: change in universal_credit +£0.3m +£0.6m +£0.9m +£0.7m +£0.3m +£0.3m +£0.3m
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax -£42,191 -£53,110 -£85,029 -£95,434 -£0.1m -£0.1m -£0.1m
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%: change in universal_credit +£306 +£15 +£24 +£23,669 +£56,832 +£0.1m +£0.1m
Raise the State Pension by 10%: change in state_pension -£1.53bn -£1.48bn -£1.46bn -£1.40bn -£1.32bn -£1.26bn -£1.14bn

Household net income by decile

Mean change in household net income per household, and as a share of the decile's base income; households stay in the base run's deciles.

Base decile 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Decile 1 -£4 (-0.0%) -£5 (-0.0%) -£5 (-0.0%) -£5 (-0.0%) -£5 (-0.0%) -£6 (-0.0%) -£5 (-0.0%)
Decile 2 -£11 (-0.0%) -£15 (-0.1%) -£21 (-0.1%) -£20 (-0.1%) -£21 (-0.1%) -£22 (-0.1%) -£22 (-0.1%)
Decile 3 -£11 (-0.0%) -£15 (-0.0%) -£23 (-0.1%) -£23 (-0.1%) -£24 (-0.1%) -£25 (-0.1%) -£25 (-0.1%)
Decile 4 -£13 (-0.0%) -£18 (-0.0%) -£28 (-0.1%) -£30 (-0.1%) -£28 (-0.1%) -£29 (-0.1%) -£29 (-0.1%)
Decile 5 -£10 (-0.0%) -£13 (-0.0%) -£20 (-0.0%) -£21 (-0.0%) -£21 (-0.0%) -£21 (-0.0%) -£21 (-0.0%)
Decile 6 -£8 (-0.0%) -£10 (-0.0%) -£15 (-0.0%) -£16 (-0.0%) -£17 (-0.0%) -£17 (-0.0%) -£15 (-0.0%)
Decile 7 -£7 (-0.0%) -£10 (-0.0%) -£16 (-0.0%) -£17 (-0.0%) -£18 (-0.0%) -£18 (-0.0%) -£17 (-0.0%)
Decile 8 -£8 (-0.0%) -£10 (-0.0%) -£15 (-0.0%) -£15 (-0.0%) -£16 (-0.0%) -£17 (-0.0%) -£15 (-0.0%)
Decile 9 -£6 (-0.0%) -£7 (-0.0%) -£10 (-0.0%) -£10 (-0.0%) -£10 (-0.0%) -£11 (-0.0%) -£10 (-0.0%)
Decile 10 -£6 (-0.0%) -£8 (-0.0%) -£12 (-0.0%) -£13 (-0.0%) -£12 (-0.0%) -£12 (-0.0%) -£11 (-0.0%)
all -£8 (-0.0%) -£11 (-0.0%) -£16 (-0.0%) -£17 (-0.0%) -£17 (-0.0%) -£17 (-0.0%) -£17 (-0.0%)
Year People gaining over £1 People losing over £1
2025-26 0.0% 12.4%
2026-27 0.0% 13.0%
2027-28 0.0% 12.8%
2028-29 0.0% 12.1%
2029-30 0.0% 11.9%
2030-31 0.0% 11.5%
2031-32 0.0% 11.3%

No change in any year: components the model counts twice; population.

Checks failing on both base and head (1)
  • VAT is never negative (sign:vat): 2025-26: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-54,797,972 in total; 2026-27: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-56,271,349 in total; 2027-28: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-57,609,146 in total
Counted-once check

Each of 84 components was raised by £1 per unit in 2026-27, and every head of its totals was read household by household: its own head must rise by exactly £1, no other tax head may move, no other benefit may rise, and the model's own total must move by what its heads moved. A head that breaks a rule is measured again twice: with every other head held at its baseline value, and with every other head held at its value after the first £1 while the component rises again. It fails where either still shows the response. 0 failed; 0 were skipped.

Provenance
Side Commit Runtime Environment hash Partition hash Time
base main ecd531776e uk 2.145.0 (files e09a3aa74820), core 3.33.2, py 3.13.16 aarch64 ccab9aa7a280 f210f83d5be4 1539.34s
head #2340 merged into main 7774f5e09f uk 2.145.0 (files 95a7e4f9d419), core 3.33.2, py 3.13.16 aarch64 ccab9aa7a280 f210f83d5be4 1607.86s

Dataset: hf://policyengine/policyengine-uk-data-private/enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5@2526edbbb687a3b54dbb11272e5389e4b62d2ac2, sha256 056e80fd8e9151d78f432a25cde863340baee81304c6216a37fb575ce8563784 (verified on both sides), policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1.

Receipts by tax head: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Income tax £299.29bn £319.02bn £336.48bn £351.64bn £367.18bn £385.30bn £403.61bn
National Insurance (employee and self-employed) £52.58bn £54.94bn £56.75bn £58.48bn £60.62bn £62.57bn £65.03bn
National Insurance (employer) £152.64bn £159.18bn £164.14bn £168.73bn £176.11bn £181.72bn £188.90bn
Employer NI change borne by capital £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Employer NI change borne by consumers £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Capital gains tax £12.62bn £13.06bn £13.55bn £14.04bn £14.54bn £15.09bn £15.65bn
Student loan repayments £7.83bn £8.12bn £8.35bn £8.56bn £8.79bn £9.04bn £9.38bn
VAT £253.71bn £260.53bn £266.72bn £273.14bn £279.83bn £286.71bn £293.71bn
Change in VAT from its baseline £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
VAT on private school fees £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Fuel duties £24.53bn £24.64bn £26.64bn £26.69bn £26.42bn £25.76bn £26.35bn
Alcohol duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Tobacco duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Vehicle excise duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
TV licence fee £4.28bn £4.43bn £4.44bn £4.46bn £4.48bn £4.51bn £4.53bn
Council tax £49.56bn £52.45bn £55.78bn £59.39bn £62.98bn £66.74bn £70.70bn
High value council tax surcharge £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.48bn £0.49bn £0.51bn £0.52bn
Northern Ireland domestic rates £0.55bn £0.58bn £0.61bn £0.63bn £0.67bn £0.70bn £0.73bn
Business rates £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn
Stamp duty land tax (own purchases, and corporate until the £10.06bn £10.56bn £10.98bn £11.40bn £11.81bn £12.23bn £12.64bn
Land transaction tax (Wales) £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Land and buildings transaction tax (Scotland) £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn
Unspecified tax change borne by capital £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Unspecified tax change borne by consumers £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Wealth tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Wealth tax excluding the main residence £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Land value tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Carbon tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Spending by benefit and service: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
State Pension £122.15bn £126.63bn £127.56bn £129.47bn £133.29bn £137.23bn £141.31bn
Pension Credit £6.68bn £7.07bn £7.06bn £7.13bn £7.26bn £7.39bn £7.49bn
Winter Fuel Payment £1.70bn £1.68bn £1.59bn £1.58bn £1.57bn £1.55bn £1.52bn
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland) £0.19bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.21bn £0.21bn £0.22bn £0.22bn
Universal Credit £78.78bn £83.08bn £84.89bn £86.65bn £87.58bn £88.99bn £90.32bn
Housing Benefit £8.59bn £8.93bn £9.19bn £9.34bn £9.61bn £9.87bn £10.15bn
Council Tax Reduction £1.99bn £2.03bn £2.08bn £2.13bn £2.18bn £2.23bn £2.29bn
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related) £2.12bn £2.18bn £2.23bn £2.28bn £2.33bn £2.39bn £2.45bn
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based) £5.22bn £5.36bn £5.49bn £5.62bn £5.76bn £5.90bn £6.04bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based) £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based) £0.29bn £0.30bn £0.30bn £0.31bn £0.32bn £0.33bn £0.33bn
Income Support £0.12bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Working Tax Credit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Child Tax Credit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Incapacity Benefit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Personal Independence Payment £27.05bn £28.19bn £28.94bn £29.64bn £30.37bn £31.11bn £31.87bn
Disability Living Allowance £7.52bn £7.83bn £8.04bn £8.24bn £8.44bn £8.65bn £8.86bn
Attendance Allowance £8.71bn £9.08bn £9.32bn £9.55bn £9.78bn £10.02bn £10.26bn
Carer's Allowance £4.50bn £4.69bn £4.81bn £4.93bn £5.05bn £5.17bn £5.29bn
Carer Support Payment (Scotland) £0.35bn £0.37bn £0.38bn £0.39bn £0.40bn £0.41bn £0.41bn
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland) £0.00bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn
Severe Disablement Allowance £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit £0.51bn £0.52bn £0.53bn £0.54bn £0.56bn £0.57bn £0.59bn
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme £0.61bn £0.62bn £0.64bn £0.65bn £0.67bn £0.69bn £0.70bn
War Widow's or Widower's Pension £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Child Benefit £16.23bn £16.91bn £17.32bn £17.73bn £18.16bn £18.60bn £19.04bn
Scottish Child Payment £0.50bn £0.52bn £0.53bn £0.55bn £0.56bn £0.57bn £0.58bn
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual) £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Healthy Start vouchers £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn
Maternity Allowance £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Statutory Maternity Pay £3.32bn £3.41bn £3.49bn £3.57bn £3.66bn £3.75bn £3.84bn
Statutory Paternity Pay £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Statutory Sick Pay £1.13bn £1.16bn £1.19bn £1.22bn £1.25bn £1.28bn £1.31bn
Sure Start Maternity Grant £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn
Bereavement Support Payment £0.67bn £0.69bn £0.70bn £0.72bn £0.74bn £0.76bn £0.78bn
Tax-Free Childcare £0.55bn £0.56bn £0.57bn £0.58bn £0.60bn £0.61bn £0.59bn
Extended childcare entitlement £2.66bn £3.14bn £3.23bn £3.30bn £3.38bn £3.47bn £3.55bn
Universal childcare entitlement £3.32bn £3.59bn £3.69bn £3.78bn £3.88bn £3.99bn £4.08bn
Targeted childcare entitlement £0.57bn £0.60bn £0.62bn £0.63bn £0.65bn £0.66bn £0.67bn
Care to Learn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Childcare Grant £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Parents' Learning Allowance £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn
Adult Dependants' Grant £0.06bn £0.06bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn
Travel Grant £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
NHS spending £204.68bn £205.46bn £206.22bn £207.04bn £207.96bn £208.89bn £209.79bn
State education spending £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn
Transport subsidy spending £25.15bn £25.25bn £25.34bn £25.44bn £25.55bn £25.67bn £25.78bn
Cost-of-living support payment £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Energy Bills Rebate £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Basic income £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Disability basic income £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Other public spending budget change £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Caseloads: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
State Pension 11,308k 11,208k 10,906k 10,812k 10,860k 10,908k 10,955k
Pension Credit 1,491k 1,489k 1,478k 1,459k 1,459k 1,457k 1,453k
Winter Fuel Payment 7,092k 7,011k 6,601k 6,517k 6,493k 6,381k 6,254k
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland) 806k 807k 807k 805k 809k 812k 816k
Universal Credit 6,371k 6,379k 6,409k 6,420k 6,395k 6,387k 6,371k
Housing Benefit 1,254k 1,252k 1,254k 1,240k 1,245k 1,247k 1,249k
Council Tax Reduction 3,186k 3,211k 3,224k 3,245k 3,264k 3,280k 3,293k
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related) 187k 188k 188k 189k 190k 190k 191k
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based) 722k 724k 727k 730k 733k 737k 740k
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based) 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based) 67k 67k 68k 68k 68k 69k 69k
Income Support 25k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Working Tax Credit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Child Tax Credit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Incapacity Benefit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Personal Independence Payment 3,581k 3,595k 3,608k 3,623k 3,639k 3,655k 3,671k
Disability Living Allowance 1,296k 1,301k 1,306k 1,311k 1,317k 1,323k 1,329k
Attendance Allowance 1,701k 1,708k 1,714k 1,721k 1,729k 1,736k 1,744k
Carer's Allowance 1,038k 1,042k 1,046k 1,050k 1,055k 1,059k 1,064k
Carer Support Payment (Scotland) 81k 82k 82k 82k 83k 83k 83k
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland) 0k 82k 82k 82k 83k 83k 83k
Severe Disablement Allowance 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit 137k 138k 139k 139k 140k 140k 141k
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme 94k 94k 94k 95k 95k 95k 96k
War Widow's or Widower's Pension 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Child Benefit 8,136k 8,165k 8,185k 8,215k 8,249k 8,282k 8,314k
Scottish Child Payment 352k 354k 355k 356k 357k 358k 357k
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual) 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Healthy Start vouchers 200k 201k 202k 203k 204k 204k 205k
Maternity Allowance 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Statutory Maternity Pay 334k 335k 336k 338k 339k 341k 342k
Statutory Paternity Pay 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Statutory Sick Pay 182k 183k 183k 184k 185k 186k 186k
Sure Start Maternity Grant 26k 26k 26k 27k 27k 27k 27k
Bereavement Support Payment 98k 98k 99k 99k 100k 100k 101k
Tax-Free Childcare 1,017k 1,028k 1,028k 1,033k 1,034k 1,038k 1,023k
Extended childcare entitlement 665k 671k 675k 677k 682k 686k 687k
Universal childcare entitlement 986k 989k 992k 997k 1,002k 1,013k 1,015k
Targeted childcare entitlement 119k 120k 120k 121k 121k 122k 121k
Care to Learn 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Childcare Grant 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Parents' Learning Allowance 98k 99k 99k 100k 100k 100k 101k
Adult Dependants' Grant 18k 18k 12k 13k 13k 13k 13k
Travel Grant 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Cost-of-living support payment 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Energy Bills Rebate 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Basic income 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Disability basic income 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Government balance, each component counted once: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Government receipts, each component once £899.39bn £939.25bn £976.20bn £1,009.40bn £1,045.67bn £1,082.62bn £1,123.49bn
Government spending £536.25bn † £550.47bn † £556.59bn † £563.63bn † £572.17bn † £581.39bn † £590.56bn †
Government balance, each receipt once £363.14bn † £388.79bn † £419.61bn † £445.77bn † £473.51bn † £501.23bn † £532.93bn †
Benefits in household_benefits but not in gov_spending £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Model totals: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
gov_tax £902.52bn £942.38bn £979.33bn £1,012.53bn £1,048.80bn £1,085.75bn £1,126.62bn
household_tax £496.17bn £522.67bn £548.46bn £570.65bn £592.86bn £617.31bn £644.02bn
pre_budget_change_household_tax £488.35bn £514.55bn £540.11bn £561.61bn £583.58bn £607.77bn £634.12bn
gov_spending £536.25bn † £550.47bn † £556.59bn † £563.63bn † £572.17bn † £581.39bn † £590.56bn †
household_benefits £536.25bn † £550.47bn † £556.59bn † £563.63bn † £572.17bn † £581.39bn † £590.56bn †
gov_balance £366.27bn † £391.92bn † £422.74bn † £448.90bn † £476.64bn † £504.36bn † £536.06bn †
Components the model counts twice: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
corporate_sdlt, counted again inside expected_sdlt £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn
Household income totals: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Household market income £1,657.06bn £1,719.25bn £1,771.68bn £1,821.99bn £1,872.88bn £1,930.99bn £2,001.98bn
Household net income £1,657.86bn † £1,706.29bn † £1,737.92bn † £1,772.03bn † £1,808.11bn † £1,849.73bn † £1,901.48bn †
Household net income (HBAI definition) £1,466.42bn £1,513.07bn £1,545.12bn £1,578.08bn £1,612.09bn £1,651.13bn £1,701.57bn
Population: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
People 69,514k 69,778k 70,036k 70,316k 70,626k 70,944k 71,249k
Benefit units 35,247k 35,381k 35,512k 35,654k 35,811k 35,972k 36,127k
Households 31,167k 31,285k 31,401k 31,526k 31,665k 31,808k 31,944k
Poverty rates: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone 15.9% 15.0% 15.5% 15.6% 15.7% 15.8% 15.8%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children 23.7% 20.9% 21.6% 21.4% 21.6% 21.8% 21.7%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 13.8% 13.4% 14.0% 14.1% 14.2% 14.3% 14.3%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 13.7% 13.2% 13.3% 13.5% 13.6% 13.7% 13.7%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone 21.1% 20.6% 21.3% 21.5% 21.9% 22.2% 22.3%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children 32.1% 30.3% 30.9% 31.1% 31.7% 32.3% 32.5%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 19.6% 19.4% 20.2% 20.4% 20.8% 21.0% 21.0%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 12.8% 12.6% 12.6% 13.1% 13.4% 13.4% 13.4%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone 16.9% 16.4% 16.5% 16.6% 16.6% 16.7% 16.7%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children 25.6% 23.5% 23.2% 23.2% 23.2% 23.2% 23.2%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 14.4% 14.4% 14.7% 14.8% 14.9% 15.0% 15.0%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 15.0% 14.9% 14.4% 14.7% 14.3% 14.3% 14.6%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone 21.7% 21.3% 21.4% 21.5% 21.6% 21.9% 22.0%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children 33.0% 31.6% 31.0% 31.1% 31.3% 31.6% 32.0%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 20.0% 20.0% 20.3% 20.4% 20.6% 20.8% 20.9%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 13.7% 13.1% 12.8% 13.0% 12.7% 12.9% 13.2%
People in poverty: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone 11,057k 10,437k 10,858k 10,961k 11,093k 11,222k 11,234k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children 3,560k 3,141k 3,261k 3,253k 3,298k 3,334k 3,335k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 5,864k 5,737k 6,070k 6,165k 6,237k 6,315k 6,321k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 1,634k 1,559k 1,527k 1,543k 1,558k 1,572k 1,579k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone 14,663k 14,366k 14,907k 15,144k 15,491k 15,756k 15,874k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children 4,809k 4,556k 4,676k 4,719k 4,835k 4,939k 4,994k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 8,333k 8,326k 8,775k 8,931k 9,122k 9,275k 9,329k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 1,521k 1,484k 1,456k 1,493k 1,533k 1,541k 1,551k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone 11,780k 11,464k 11,541k 11,665k 11,708k 11,832k 11,879k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children 3,840k 3,538k 3,514k 3,525k 3,542k 3,554k 3,565k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 6,154k 6,160k 6,365k 6,466k 6,530k 6,636k 6,628k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 1,786k 1,766k 1,661k 1,673k 1,636k 1,643k 1,686k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone 15,110k 14,866k 14,956k 15,109k 15,281k 15,513k 15,696k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children 4,948k 4,756k 4,684k 4,715k 4,771k 4,840k 4,916k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 8,531k 8,560k 8,793k 8,917k 9,054k 9,187k 9,257k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 1,631k 1,551k 1,479k 1,477k 1,456k 1,486k 1,523k
Inequality: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Gini coefficient, equivalised HBAI income before housing costs 0.3074 0.3052 0.3066 0.3072 0.3078 0.3084 0.3095
Mean household net income in each side's own deciles: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household £17,700 † £17,996 † £17,934 † £17,991 † £18,328 † £18,506 † £18,680 †
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household £28,322 † £29,102 † £28,705 † £28,937 † £29,330 † £29,733 † £30,317 †
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household £34,628 † £35,807 † £36,445 † £37,098 † £37,220 † £37,810 † £38,491 †
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household £39,334 † £40,803 † £41,758 † £42,690 † £43,435 † £44,025 † £44,926 †
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household £44,856 † £46,150 † £47,078 † £47,580 † £48,027 † £49,181 † £50,035 †
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household £47,930 † £49,334 † £50,290 † £51,060 † £52,167 † £52,953 † £54,204 †
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household £56,319 † £57,568 † £58,473 † £59,422 † £60,149 † £61,621 † £62,893 †
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household £69,269 † £70,357 † £71,673 † £72,812 † £74,353 † £75,799 † £77,580 †
Decile 9: mean household_net_income per household £79,648 † £81,992 † £83,193 † £84,488 † £86,056 † £87,571 † £90,646 †
Decile 10: mean household_net_income per household £117,618 † £120,489 † £122,420 † £124,552 † £126,802 † £129,073 † £131,887 †
Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance): head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp £6.21bn £6.50bn £6.70bn £6.90bn £7.11bn £7.34bn £7.62bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp £3.54bn £3.82bn £4.05bn £4.27bn £4.49bn £4.76bn £4.96bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year £-3.83bn £-3.96bn £-4.03bn £-4.10bn £-4.19bn £-4.29bn £-2.02bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child £-2.00bn £-1.76bn £-1.64bn £-1.54bn £-1.44bn £-1.34bn £-1.24bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20% £-20.54bn £-21.10bn £-21.45bn £-21.88bn £-21.95bn £-22.32bn £-22.79bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10% £11.06bn £11.51bn £11.83bn £12.14bn £12.47bn £12.81bn £13.29bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp £25.01bn £25.68bn £26.29bn £26.92bn £27.58bn £28.26bn £28.95bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp £2.83bn £3.07bn £3.27bn £3.47bn £3.67bn £3.91bn £4.23bn
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10% £-3.04bn £-3.17bn £-3.24bn £-3.32bn £-3.37bn £-3.42bn £-3.47bn
Raise the State Pension by 10% £-7.81bn £-8.06bn £-7.99bn £-8.10bn £-8.36bn £-8.66bn £-9.02bn
Standard reforms: change in each reform's target: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp: change in income_tax £6.36bn £6.65bn £6.86bn £7.07bn £7.28bn £7.52bn £7.80bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp: change in income_tax £3.55bn £3.83bn £4.06bn £4.28bn £4.50bn £4.77bn £4.97bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year: change in income_tax £-3.96bn £-4.10bn £-4.19bn £-4.26bn £-4.36bn £-4.47bn £-1.77bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child: change in child_benefit £2.34bn £2.15bn £2.03bn £1.92bn £1.82bn £1.71bn £1.59bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%: change in universal_credit £20.53bn £21.09bn £21.44bn £21.86bn £21.95bn £22.32bn £22.78bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%: change in national_insurance £11.33bn £11.79bn £12.13bn £12.44bn £12.78bn £13.13bn £13.62bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp: change in vat £25.01bn £25.68bn £26.29bn £26.92bn £27.58bn £28.26bn £28.95bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax £2.83bn £3.07bn £3.27bn £3.47bn £3.67bn £3.91bn £4.23bn
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%: change in universal_credit £3.04bn £3.17bn £3.25bn £3.32bn £3.37bn £3.43bn £3.47bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%: change in state_pension £10.72bn £11.23bn £11.37bn £11.62bn £12.08bn £12.54bn £13.07bn

@MaxGhenis @claude
Give Carer Support Payment its own reference overlap in the carer pro…
bc81c88 
…perty test

From the independent delta review of 9ace2ca: the test rebuilt one
overlapping amount for both carer benefits and left the 25p age addition out
of it, so its explicit example of a Scottish carer aged 80 with basic and
additional State Pension failed by £13 once Carer Support Payment counted the
addition (SSI 2023/302 reg 16(6)). The reference now adds the age addition to
the Carer Support Payment overlap only, as the regulations do, and keeps it
out of Carer's Allowance (SI 1979/597 reg 4(3)).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
juaristi22
juaristi22 approved these changes Oct 24, 2026
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Reviewed at bc81c88913d9430365e9c9ca03a122d4c4410dd2, using the PR’s own diff over #2336 at fa27e494826858baf2732cdb00efefad4941f2ea. No actionable findings from independent policy/source and code reviews.

Official GB and NI sources support the fixed 25p addition from attained age 80, old/new State Pension separation, pension-income treatment and distinct Carer’s Allowance/Scottish Carer Support Payment overlap rules.

Validation: 37 focused Python tests and all 48 serially collected YAML cases passed. Doubling the addition increases pension by £13, Income Tax by £2.60 and household net income by £10.40, with other components unchanged. Formatting and import provenance checks passed. The stacked-parent merge order remains.

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@MaxGhenis @juaristi22