[MaxGhenis]

Fixes #2341

This was stacked on #2322, which merged on 24 Oct, so the PR now targets main. d35650c49 merges main in with no conflicts; the PR's net diff against main has the same patch-id as the reviewed 9ca3cfd2d. It changes no model output: the yoy_growth.yaml edits are comments only, and no model code imports the importer.

Receipt-unit review fix (23 October, 9ca3cfd2d)

A future EFO can change its cash units. Combining £m levels with a £bn outturn base could write growth of 999.0 in place of 0.0. Every selected table in both receipts workbooks now has to declare pound billions in its own header before the fiscal-year row. The explicit aliases are £ billion, £bn and £ bn, ignoring case and whitespace. Other magnitudes, currencies and measures, and missing or ambiguous declarations, stop the import before any output. Requiring the same supported magnitude throughout also prevents mismatched releases from being combined. Receipt-growth arithmetic and economy extraction are unchanged.

Tests were committed first. Real-workbook regressions at the reviewed importer produced 19 failures and 6 passes, including the next-release attack; the unchanged control passed. Committed fixtures retain the original selected worksheet XML and shared strings, with source hashes. Mutations cover all three selected tables in each release, million-pound levels scaled by 1,000, misleading labels, missing/ambiguous declarations, and a 50-example Hypothesis property over labels and common scale factors.

Final validation: 105 importer tests, 534 other unique Python tests, and 46 policy YAML cases passed: 685 unique tests. Five tiny synthetic microsimulation fixtures were additionally rerun serially with per-test resource gates and passed. No requested cases remain excluded.

All pytest runs use foreground -n 2, with load1 <= 110 and at least 60 GB decimal free disk checked before each run. The host gate waited when load1 exceeded 110. Four corporate-receipts cases were initially deferred until compressor occupation fell below the hub's 30 GB gate; all four then passed serially. Five earlier tiny synthetic microsimulation fixtures were also rerun serially with per-test load/disk/memory checks. All 11 recorded gated-run readings (two preflights plus nine cases) meet those limits. No full-survey dataset build or certified-data measurement was run. The worktree venv follows the frozen dev lock (Python 3.13.9, core 3.33.2, NumPy 2.5.4). Full formatting/lint and uvx ruff format --check . pass.

The complete original March 2026/2025 receipts workbooks reproduce the entire committed YAML byte for byte through the receipts renderer (28 growth values). A full CLI run using all three original workbooks also leaves the four receipts series byte-identical. Its existing four-decimal economy extraction changes cumulative 2030 indices by RPI −0.0880%, CPI −0.0584%, average earnings −0.0585% and house prices +0.0194%; these independently verified shifts are now documented in the README's refresh steps, without changing the behavior.

The 2019 England business-rates source link now uses the correct 2019-to-2020-provisional-data release URL; that file's sole change is the link. The base branch and #2322 are unchanged. The UK hub owns the independent final-head review and any merge/retargeting.

Summary

#2322 added four OBR receipts growth series under gov.economic_assumptions.yoy_growth.obr. They project the corporate SDLT and business rates statistics:

• stamp_duty_land_tax.residential and .non_residential, from receipts Table 3.7;
• business_rates.great_britain, from current receipts on a cash basis (Table 3.8 in March 2026, 3.9 in March 2025);
• business_rates.northern_ireland, from Table 3.2.

They were derived by hand. import_obr_forecasts.py did not touch them: read_calendar_values skipped nested series and replace_series_section handles only top-level ones. At the next EFO they would have stayed on March 2026, the failure that left the old statistics at their 2018-2021 values.

The importer now rewrites them from a new EFO's receipts tables in the same run as the economy series and forecast gaps. Run on the March 2026 tables, it reproduces every committed value exactly.

What the importer does

For each series, compute_receipts_growth:

• finds the line by table title and row label, not table number, because numbers move between EFOs. Labels are compared lowercased without footnote markers, so March 2025's "Northern Ireland Business Rates" matches.
• splits each sheet into tables at its title rows and reads a line only from its own table. The accrued current-receipts table's own "Business rates" row is never read, even on the same sheet, and notes above a title don't hide it. A line that is missing, or appears twice, stops the run.
• reads the fiscal-year columns and the "Outturn"/"Forecast" markers above them, which may sit on one row or several. A fiscal year heading two columns, or a marker in two columns, stops the run.
• computes each year's growth as the ratio of consecutive published levels minus 1, to six decimals. A level at or below zero in any year stops the run. The outturn year's base is the previous year's outturn in an earlier EFO (March 2025 for March 2026). The run stops unless that year is outturn there, and unless the first year is outturn in this EFO.

render_receipts_growth_yaml then rewrites each series' values block and metadata.reference list:

• Earlier years are kept. Years before the EFO's outturn year stay as they were, comments included. At the next EFO, 2024 stays, so each index keeps its 2024 base. (Indices start at 1.0 in a series' first year; see create_economic_assumption_indices.py.)
• This EFO's years. The outturn year's growth comes first, with a comment naming both EFOs and tables, then the forecast years.
• After the forecast. Each series follows average_earnings as the same run writes it. The importer writes the value in effect in the first year after the forecast and each later change, so the series equals average_earnings in every year.
• References. Both EFOs, their tables and the base outturn year.
• Self-check. It parses the result and stops unless the whole document differs from the input only in those values and references.

Command line

• --previous-receipts-file / --previous-receipts-url: the earlier EFO's receipts tables. Receipts growth is updated whenever yoy_growth.yaml is, so these and --receipts-file are required. The opt-out is --skip-receipts-growth; a --dry-run only warns.
• Release checks. The importer reads each workbook's release from its contents sheet, or failing that from the file name or URL (URL-decoded).
  • The economy tables' contents sheet decides their release. --release-month and --release-year must agree with it when it names one.
  • It refuses receipts tables from a different EFO than the economy tables, or whose release it cannot tell. This also guards the existing September CPI gap.
  • It refuses previous tables unless they come from an earlier EFO.
• Statutory gaps are built only when they are written, so a growth-only run (--output or --skip-statutory-gaps) does not need September CPI in the receipts tables.
• A comment indented no deeper than a YAML key no longer ends its block.
• --gaps-only refuses the previous receipts tables, because it leaves yoy_growth.yaml alone.
• An invalid --release-month now fails with a clear message.
• All files are still rendered before any is written (write_all_or_none), so growth, receipts growth and gaps never mix EFOs.

read_calendar_values now returns nested series, keyed by dotted path (stamp_duty_land_tax.residential).

Changes to yoy_growth.yaml

Comments only; every value is unchanged.

• Header. The comment above the receipts series no longer names March 2026, so it stays true after a refresh.
• Outturn-year comment. It now names both EFOs, e.g. # Outturn (2024-25 over 2023-24) from OBR EFO March 2026 over March 2025, receipts Table 3.8 (March 2025: Table 3.9) "Business rates". This line is kept at later EFOs, so it has to say where its value came from.

The file is now exactly the importer's output; a test enforces this (below).

The economic assumptions README lists the four series and adds a refresh step:

• the new flags;
• updating OBR_RECEIPTS_BN in test_corporate_receipts_statistics.py, which pins the series to the published levels.

Check against the March 2026 workbooks

Inputs:

• OBR March 2026 receipts and economy detailed forecast tables, and March 2025 receipts tables;
• sha256 in ~/reviews/uk-obr-receipts-importer-2341/sources; the receipts files are the ones Update corporate SDLT and business rates statistics and project them with OBR receipts #2322 used.

Results:

• Full CLI run. --file economy, --receipts-file, --previous-receipts-file, --output to a scratch file, on the committed yoy_growth.yaml, with no release flags (each release comes from its contents sheet). The four receipts series come out byte-identical; no line of the diff falls in the receipts block. Rerun on 23 October at the final head.
  • The same run would also change four economy series. RPI, CPI, average earnings and house prices hold three-decimal values referenced to Table A.1, where the importer writes four-decimal values from Tables 1.7, 1.6 and 1.16. For example, CPI in 2027 is 0.020 against 0.0197. The committed forecast gaps are measured from the stored values, so the two files agree with each other. This PR leaves the economy series alone.
• Library run. compute_receipts_growth gives the 28 growth values in Update corporate SDLT and business rates statistics and project them with OBR receipts #2322's growth.json exactly, and render_receipts_growth_yaml leaves the committed file byte-identical. That file came from a separate openpyxl extraction (extract_values.py), so this is a differential check of two readers. Rerun on 23 October at the final head.
• Table location. Tables 3.7, 3.8 and 3.2 in March 2026, and 3.7, 3.9 and 3.2 in March 2025, with 2024-25 and 2023-24 as their outturn years.

Invariants (tests in test_import_obr_forecasts.py)

1. Ratio. Hypothesis, any positive levels and 2 to 8 years. Every year from the outturn year is round(level(t) / level(t-1) - 1, 6), read back exactly from the written YAML.
2. Tail. Same test. Every year after the forecast, to 2049, equals average_earnings in effect that year.
3. History. Years before the outturn year are kept with their comments. A simulated March 2027 refresh keeps 2024 and its March 2026 comment.
4. Locality. Only the four series' values and references change. The renderer checks this at runtime and a test checks it from outside, including the text before and after.
5. Idempotence. A second run on the output changes nothing. Hypothesis checks this, and so does the golden fixture.
6. Round-trip text. format_growth(v) is fixed-point, has at least four decimals and reads back as v. Hypothesis checks 300 floats.
7. Reproduction. A replica of the March 2026 and March 2025 tables, built from the published cell values with the real titles, numbers and labels, leaves the committed yoy_growth.yaml byte-identical. Changing one value, one value's text (0.0380 to 0.038) or one reference makes it fail; each was tried.
8. Refusals change no file. Each refusal is tested: tables from another EFO, receipts or previous tables whose release is unknown, economy tables whose contents contradict the release flags, a previous EFO that is not earlier, no outturn for the base year, a missing or duplicated line, a line only in another table, a fiscal year heading two columns, a marker in two columns, and a missing, non-numeric or non-positive level in any year. After a refusal, yoy_growth.yaml and both gap files are unchanged.
9. Comments. A comment at any indentation before a series' values leaves the rendered file equal to the render without it, plus the comment in place.

Previous validation at 749b547 (23 October)

Local, foreground, -n 2, with host load around 50; PR CI is dispatched manually on this branch, since it targets #2322's branch.

• test_import_obr_forecasts.py: 80 passed (60 at 0da72d8aa, 24 before this PR). The 20 new cases are listed under Review. 18 of them fail on 0da72d8aa; the other two, comments at indents 6 and 8, already worked there. The one changed existing case (test_receipts_growth_rejects_a_missing_or_non_positive_level, new message) also fails there.
• test_corporate_receipts_statistics.py (excluding its 4 microsimulation cases, which this PR's comment-only YAML change cannot move): 137 passed.
• test_lagged_series.py, test_council_tax_uprating.py, test_threshold_indexation.py, test_fiscal_year_parameters.py and test_domestic_rates_uprating.py: 133 passed.
• code_health/test_cached_arrays_not_written_in_place.py: 36 passed (it failed at 0da72d8aa merged with main).
• ruff format --check . and ruff check on the touched files pass.

Stack update (23 October 2026)

• 8a99e330b merges Update corporate SDLT and business rates statistics and project them with OBR receipts #2322's updated head (376f10307), which carries Count corporate SDLT once and let SDLT abolition remove all of it #2235 and main at a45baf5e4. There was one conflict, in the economic assumptions README's EFO refresh checklist: main added step 6 (move PROJECTION_END_YEAR on) where this PR added step 6 (refresh the receipts series). Both are kept: receipts refresh as step 6, projection horizon as step 7, then the importer example. Main has not touched the importer or its tests since this PR branched.
• daabdf343 fixes the review findings below.
• 4daa09f56 merges Update corporate SDLT and business rates statistics and project them with OBR receipts #2322's f6ed43708. That commit holds test_aggregate_impact_certified.py's receipts identity to the spec's float32 tolerance, which fixes this branch's one CI failure in run 39915137960 (Test / Python 3/5; 1,743 other tests in that shard passed).
• 749b547c5 fixes that run's other failure (Test / Python 4/5). test_cached_arrays_not_written_in_place.py's static scan treats a method call with a string first argument as a simulation read, so it took lines = content.split("\n") in render_receipts_growth_yaml for a cached array and flagged its two slice assignments. The function now builds each new list instead. Its output is unchanged: the importer tests, the scan's module (36 passed) and the real-workbook check all pass. In that run, every other shard, plus YAML, docs and smoke-import, passed. The CI run at this head is 39928984925.

Review

Round 1 (independent attack review of 0da72d8aa, 11 October): REQUEST_CHANGES, with seven should-fix findings and one nit, each reproduced. All are fixed in daabdf343, each with a test that fails on 0da72d8aa:

1. Unidentified current receipts bypassed the release check, so growth from another EFO could be written silently. Receipts tables whose release can't be told are now refused, as previous ones already were (test_main_refuses_tables_from_the_wrong_efo[receipts_unidentified]).
2. The economy release ignored the contents sheet. It now comes from the contents sheet, then the file name or URL, which is URL-decoded. The release flags must agree with the contents sheet (test_main_refuses_release_flags_the_economy_tables_contradict, test_main_takes_the_release_from_the_economy_contents_sheet, test_release_is_read_from_a_url_encoded_name).
3. The first title applied to the whole sheet. Sheets are now split into tables at title rows. A later accrued table can't supply a cash-basis line, and notes above a title no longer hide it (test_a_line_is_read_only_from_its_own_table, test_a_table_title_below_publication_notes_is_found).
4. Repeated fiscal-year headers overwrote levels. They are now refused (test_a_fiscal_year_heading_two_columns_is_refused).
5. Marker rows overwrote each other. Markers are now collected across the table, and conflicting ones are refused (test_outturn_and_forecast_markers_may_sit_on_separate_rows, test_a_marker_in_two_columns_is_refused).
6. Comment indentation ended YAML blocks. A shallow comment no longer ends a block (test_a_comment_at_any_indent_ends_no_yaml_block, at indents 0, 2, 4, 6 and 8).
7. Skipped gaps still needed September CPI. Gaps are now built only when written (test_a_growth_only_run_does_not_need_september_cpi, three flag sets).
8. Nit, pre-existing: the next EFO needs new year entries. The error now names the series and year, and README step 2 says to add the entry first (test_a_forecast_year_a_series_lacks_is_named). Inserting entries automatically would also move every later year up to the next entry, so that stays manual.

Also fixed: one probe in the review's scratch showed that a zero last level wrote growth of −1.0, zeroing the index. A level at or below zero is now refused in any year (test_a_last_level_at_or_below_zero_is_refused).

The review's own probes, rerun against daabdf343: findings 3 to 6 no longer reproduce. A title moved below its markers is now refused, because its markers fall outside the table; it used to give "found none".

Round 2 (review at 749b547c5): REQUEST_CHANGES for unchecked receipt units. Addressed by the unit checks and regressions above; independent review of the new head remains with the UK hub.

Reproducer: policyengine_uk/tests/test_import_obr_forecasts.py::test_real_receipts_units_are_refused_before_any_write, policyengine_uk/tests/test_import_obr_forecasts.py::test_next_release_real_receipts_refuse_a_thousandfold_unit_change, policyengine_uk/tests/test_import_obr_forecasts.py::test_real_receipts_workbooks_reproduce_committed_yaml_byte_for_byte

axiom: n/a: importer tooling for OBR forecast series; no policy rule changes

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

[MaxGhenis]

Hand-off to the UK hub (build job 20261023-001751-stack-2322-b)

Head: 749b547c5, fast-forwards from 0da72d8aa. No history rewritten.

• 8a99e330b merges Update corporate SDLT and business rates statistics and project them with OBR receipts #2322's new head (376f10307). There was one conflict, in the README's EFO checklist: the receipts refresh is step 6, main's projection-horizon step is step 7, and the example follows.
• daabdf343 fixes all eight findings from the independent attack review of 0da72d8aa (11 October, REQUEST_CHANGES). It adds 20 test cases, and 18 of them fail on 0da72d8aa. It also refuses a non-positive receipts level in any year, which the review's probes found writing −100% growth.
• 4daa09f56 merges Update corporate SDLT and business rates statistics and project them with OBR receipts #2322's f6ed43708, the float32 tolerance fix for this branch's one CI failure (run 39915137960, Test / Python 3/5).
• 749b547c5 fixes that run's only other failure (Python 4/5). The static cached-array scan mistook content.split("\n") for a simulation read, so render_receipts_growth_yaml now rebuilds its line list instead of slice-assigning; the output is unchanged.

Tests: these ran locally with -n 2 and all passed:

• the importer tests: 80;
• the receipts statistics parameter tests: 137;
• the uprating and fiscal-year tests that read yoy_growth.yaml: 133.

Ruff is clean. Against the real OBR workbooks (March 2026, plus the March 2025 receipts tables):

• the library render is byte-identical to the committed yoy_growth.yaml;
• a full CLI run with no release flags leaves the receipts block byte-identical;
• all 28 growth values equal Update corporate SDLT and business rates statistics and project them with OBR receipts #2322's growth.json.

CI (dispatched on the branch, since this PR targets #2322's branch): run 39928984925 at 749b547c5. At 09:50Z, when this job ended, its Changes and Lint had passed and its test shards were queued. At daabdf343 (run 39915137960), only Python 3/5 and 4/5 failed, both fixed above. The PR is still a draft: the hub marks it ready once that run is green.

Impact: none on model outputs. The yoy_growth.yaml changes are comments only, and no model code imports the importer.

Open items

• Independent review. The hub's review at 749b547c5.
• Retarget. Move this PR to main after Update corporate SDLT and business rates statistics and project them with OBR receipts #2322 merges.
• History. It carries 5f08c244c through Update corporate SDLT and business rates statistics and project them with OBR receipts #2322; see Update corporate SDLT and business rates statistics and project them with OBR receipts #2322's hand-off and d1384.
• Budget day (pre-existing, unchanged). A full importer run also moves RPI, CPI, average earnings and house prices from their committed Table A.1 values (3 dp) to Tables 1.6/1.7/1.16 (4 dp).

[MaxGhenis]

Hand-off to the UK hub (Budget build 8e19f9d5)

Head: 9ca3cfd2d7a2cbc9b17602b69b3881ef405a9764, three fast-forward commits above 749b547c5. The base and PR author are unchanged.

• Receipt tables in both releases must explicitly declare pound billions in their own headers. Unknown/missing/ambiguous declarations, including £m, stop before output; mismatched cash magnitudes cannot be combined.
• Added real-workbook mutation/byte-control tests and a Hypothesis property over labels/scales. Tests first: 19 expected failures and 6 passes; final importer: 105 passed.
• Fixed only the 2019 England source URL and documented the unchanged four-decimal economy extraction and verified 2030 shifts.

Validation: 639 Python + 46 policy YAML = 685 unique tests passed, all foreground -n 2; five tiny microsimulation fixtures also passed a serial repeat under per-test memory/load/disk gates. No requested cases remain excluded. Full lint/format and uvx ruff format --check . pass. Original full receipts workbooks reproduce committed YAML bytes; the full CLI preserves receipt blocks and confirms all four documented economy-index shifts. No full-survey dataset run or build.

Impact: no policy values or model output changed. The UK hub owns independent review and subsequent merge/retargeting; none was performed here. .job/HANDOFF.md, .job/handoffs.jsonl and the verified .job/HANDOFF.bundle are in the assigned workspace. No CI workflow was dispatched by this job.

[github-actions]

Aggregate impact on certified data: pass

Base 4ed874f23d against head ae3b9cf3f7, both on enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5 (policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1, sha256 056e80fd8e91), fiscal years 2025-26 to 2031-32. Each year is a full microsimulation run on each side.

Checks: 0 broken by this change, 1 failing on both sides, 0 fixed. Moves flagged for review: 0 (thresholds in report_spec.yaml; a flag does not fail the job).

Workflow run and full report

Notes

• In the years a figure from fewer than 10 records is suppressed (spending.disabled_students_allowance), every total containing it, and the decile incomes, are rebuilt from their other components, so no published total includes it. Those totals are marked †. A change is withheld where the two sides leave out different figures and can't be lined up.

Moves flagged for review

None.

Spending by benefit and service

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed

Caseloads

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed

Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance)

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise additional rate by 3pp	0	0	0	0	0	suppressed	suppressed

Standard reforms: change in each reform's target

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax	0	0	0	0	0	suppressed	suppressed

Household net income by decile

No household's net income changes in any year.

No change in any year: receipts by tax head; government balance, each component counted once; model totals; household income totals; population; poverty rates; people in poverty; inequality; mean household net income in each side's own deciles.

Checks failing on both base and head (1)

• VAT is never negative (sign:vat): 2025-26: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-54,797,972 in total; 2026-27: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-56,271,349 in total; 2027-28: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-57,609,146 in total

Counted-once check

Each of 86 components was raised by £1 per unit in 2026-27, and every head of its totals was read household by household: its own head must rise by exactly £1, no other tax head may move, no other benefit may rise, and the model's own total must move by what its heads moved. A head that breaks a rule is measured again twice: with every other head held at its baseline value, and with every other head held at its value after the first £1 while the component rises again. It fails where either still shows the response. 0 failed; 0 were skipped.

• widowed_parents_allowance: pension_credit responds only through other heads in fewer than 10 households (other heads that moved there: carers_allowance; gov_spending; not a failure)
• widowed_parents_allowance: pension_credit responds only through other heads in fewer than 10 households (other heads that moved there: carers_allowance; household_benefits; not a failure)

Provenance

Side	Commit	Runtime	Environment hash	Partition hash	Time
base	main 4ed874f23d	uk 2.152.5 (files 77596e142f87), core 3.33.2, py 3.13.17 aarch64	293cdd16b6ad	8d321bae91af	1590.4s
head	#2342 merged into main ae3b9cf3f7	uk 2.152.5 (files 111ab8d5707d), core 3.33.2, py 3.13.17 aarch64	293cdd16b6ad	8d321bae91af	1602.35s

Dataset: hf://policyengine/policyengine-uk-data-private/enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5@2526edbbb687a3b54dbb11272e5389e4b62d2ac2, sha256 056e80fd8e9151d78f432a25cde863340baee81304c6216a37fb575ce8563784 (verified on both sides), policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1.

Receipts by tax head: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Income tax	£299.29bn	£319.01bn	£336.54bn	£351.69bn	£367.24bn	£385.36bn	£403.66bn
National Insurance (employee and self-employed)	£52.58bn	£54.94bn	£56.75bn	£58.48bn	£60.62bn	£62.57bn	£65.03bn
National Insurance (employer)	£152.64bn	£159.18bn	£164.14bn	£168.73bn	£176.11bn	£181.72bn	£188.90bn
Employer NI change borne by capital	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Employer NI change borne by consumers	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Capital gains tax	£12.62bn	£13.06bn	£13.55bn	£14.04bn	£14.54bn	£15.09bn	£15.65bn
Student loan repayments	£7.83bn	£8.12bn	£8.35bn	£8.56bn	£8.79bn	£9.04bn	£9.38bn
VAT	£253.71bn	£260.53bn	£266.72bn	£273.14bn	£279.83bn	£286.71bn	£293.71bn
Change in VAT from its baseline	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
VAT on private school fees	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Fuel duties	£24.53bn	£24.64bn	£26.64bn	£26.69bn	£26.42bn	£25.76bn	£26.35bn
Alcohol duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Tobacco duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Vehicle excise duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Betting and gaming duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
TV licence fee	£4.28bn	£4.43bn	£4.44bn	£4.46bn	£4.48bn	£4.50bn	£4.52bn
Council tax	£49.21bn	£51.88bn	£54.97bn	£58.29bn	£61.55bn	£64.92bn	£68.49bn
High value council tax surcharge	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.48bn	£0.49bn	£0.51bn	£0.52bn
Northern Ireland domestic rates	£0.55bn	£0.58bn	£0.61bn	£0.63bn	£0.67bn	£0.70bn	£0.73bn
Business rates	£34.68bn	£38.04bn	£38.88bn	£39.76bn	£43.07bn	£43.13bn	£44.57bn
Stamp duty land tax on the household's own purchases	£6.93bn	£7.42bn	£7.85bn	£8.26bn	£8.68bn	£9.09bn	£9.51bn
Stamp duty land tax paid by companies	£4.81bn	£5.98bn	£6.73bn	£7.46bn	£8.21bn	£8.87bn	£9.16bn
Land transaction tax (Wales)	£0.08bn	£0.08bn	£0.09bn	£0.09bn	£0.10bn	£0.10bn	£0.11bn
Land and buildings transaction tax (Scotland)	£0.31bn	£0.32bn	£0.34bn	£0.36bn	£0.37bn	£0.39bn	£0.40bn
Unspecified tax change borne by capital	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Unspecified tax change borne by consumers	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Wealth tax	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Wealth tax excluding the main residence	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Land value tax	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Carbon tax	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn

Spending by benefit and service: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
State Pension	£122.15bn	£126.64bn	£127.76bn	£129.65bn	£133.46bn	£137.40bn	£141.47bn
Pension Credit	£6.68bn	£7.07bn	£7.35bn	£7.50bn	£7.65bn	£7.83bn	£8.02bn
Winter Fuel Payment	£1.70bn	£1.68bn	£1.59bn	£1.57bn	£1.57bn	£1.55bn	£1.52bn
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland)	£0.19bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.21bn	£0.21bn	£0.22bn	£0.22bn
Universal Credit	£75.54bn	£80.75bn	£83.40bn	£85.21bn	£86.21bn	£87.61bn	£88.91bn
Housing Benefit	£8.59bn	£8.93bn	£9.22bn	£9.37bn	£9.64bn	£9.91bn	£10.20bn
Council Tax Reduction	£1.98bn	£2.03bn	£2.07bn	£2.12bn	£2.17bn	£2.22bn	£2.26bn
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related)	£0.79bn	£0.81bn	£0.83bn	£0.85bn	£0.87bn	£0.89bn	£0.91bn
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based)	£5.22bn	£5.36bn	£5.49bn	£5.62bn	£5.76bn	£5.90bn	£6.04bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based)	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based)	£0.29bn	£0.30bn	£0.30bn	£0.31bn	£0.32bn	£0.33bn	£0.33bn
Income Support	£0.12bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Working Tax Credit	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Child Tax Credit	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Incapacity Benefit	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Personal Independence Payment	£27.05bn	£28.19bn	£29.28bn	£30.02bn	£30.75bn	£31.51bn	£32.28bn
Disability Living Allowance	£7.52bn	£7.83bn	£8.14bn	£8.34bn	£8.55bn	£8.76bn	£8.97bn
Attendance Allowance	£8.71bn	£9.08bn	£9.43bn	£9.67bn	£9.90bn	£10.15bn	£10.40bn
Carer's Allowance	£4.50bn	£4.69bn	£4.87bn	£4.99bn	£5.11bn	£5.23bn	£5.36bn
Carer Support Payment (Scotland)	£0.31bn	£0.32bn	£0.34bn	£0.34bn	£0.35bn	£0.36bn	£0.37bn
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland)	£0.00bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn
Severe Disablement Allowance	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit	£0.51bn	£0.52bn	£0.53bn	£0.54bn	£0.56bn	£0.57bn	£0.59bn
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme	£0.61bn	£0.62bn	£0.64bn	£0.65bn	£0.67bn	£0.69bn	£0.70bn
War Widow's or Widower's Pension	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Child Benefit	£16.23bn	£16.91bn	£17.53bn	£17.96bn	£18.39bn	£18.84bn	£19.29bn
Scottish Child Payment	£0.50bn	£0.52bn	£0.54bn	£0.56bn	£0.56bn	£0.58bn	£0.59bn
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual)	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Healthy Start vouchers	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn
Maternity Allowance	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Statutory Maternity Pay	£3.32bn	£3.41bn	£3.49bn	£3.57bn	£3.66bn	£3.75bn	£3.84bn
Statutory Paternity Pay	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Statutory Sick Pay	£1.13bn	£1.16bn	£1.19bn	£1.22bn	£1.25bn	£1.28bn	£1.31bn
Sure Start Maternity Grant	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn
Bereavement Support Payment	£0.67bn	£0.69bn	£0.70bn	£0.72bn	£0.74bn	£0.76bn	£0.78bn
Widowed Parent's Allowance	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Tax-Free Childcare	£0.55bn	£0.56bn	£0.57bn	£0.58bn	£0.60bn	£0.61bn	£0.59bn
Extended childcare entitlement	£2.77bn	£3.27bn	£3.36bn	£3.43bn	£3.53bn	£3.61bn	£3.70bn
Universal childcare entitlement	£2.26bn	£2.45bn	£2.51bn	£2.58bn	£2.64bn	£2.72bn	£2.78bn
Targeted childcare entitlement	£0.47bn	£0.49bn	£0.50bn	£0.51bn	£0.52bn	£0.53bn	£0.47bn
Care to Learn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Childcare Grant	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Parents' Learning Allowance	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn
Adult Dependants' Grant	£0.06bn	£0.06bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn
Travel Grant	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
NHS spending	£204.68bn	£205.46bn	£206.22bn	£207.04bn	£207.96bn	£208.89bn	£209.79bn
State education spending	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn
Transport subsidy spending	£25.15bn	£25.25bn	£25.34bn	£25.44bn	£25.55bn	£25.67bn	£25.78bn
Cost-of-living support payment	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Energy Bills Rebate	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Basic income	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Disability basic income	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Other public spending budget change	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn

Caseloads: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
State Pension	11,308k	11,208k	10,906k	10,812k	10,860k	10,908k	10,955k
Pension Credit	1,491k	1,489k	1,488k	1,470k	1,473k	1,476k	1,475k
Winter Fuel Payment	7,091k	7,011k	6,600k	6,512k	6,493k	6,379k	6,248k
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland)	806k	807k	807k	805k	809k	812k	816k
Universal Credit	6,361k	6,370k	6,404k	6,419k	6,390k	6,387k	6,368k
Housing Benefit	1,254k	1,252k	1,256k	1,242k	1,246k	1,250k	1,252k
Council Tax Reduction	3,187k	3,212k	3,225k	3,248k	3,266k	3,282k	3,295k
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related)	71k	71k	71k	72k	72k	72k	72k
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based)	722k	724k	727k	730k	733k	737k	740k
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based)	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based)	67k	67k	68k	68k	68k	69k	69k
Income Support	25k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Working Tax Credit	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Child Tax Credit	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Incapacity Benefit	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Personal Independence Payment	3,581k	3,595k	3,608k	3,623k	3,639k	3,655k	3,671k
Disability Living Allowance	1,296k	1,301k	1,306k	1,311k	1,317k	1,323k	1,329k
Attendance Allowance	1,701k	1,708k	1,714k	1,721k	1,729k	1,736k	1,744k
Carer's Allowance	1,038k	1,042k	1,046k	1,050k	1,055k	1,059k	1,064k
Carer Support Payment (Scotland)	71k	72k	72k	72k	73k	73k	73k
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland)	0k	72k	72k	72k	73k	73k	73k
Severe Disablement Allowance	4k	4k	4k	4k	4k	4k	4k
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit	137k	138k	139k	139k	140k	140k	141k
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme	94k	94k	94k	95k	95k	95k	96k
War Widow's or Widower's Pension	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Child Benefit	8,136k	8,165k	8,185k	8,215k	8,249k	8,282k	8,314k
Scottish Child Payment	352k	354k	355k	359k	357k	358k	357k
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual)	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Healthy Start vouchers	200k	201k	202k	203k	204k	204k	205k
Maternity Allowance	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Statutory Maternity Pay	334k	335k	336k	338k	339k	341k	342k
Statutory Paternity Pay	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Statutory Sick Pay	182k	183k	183k	184k	185k	186k	186k
Sure Start Maternity Grant	26k	26k	26k	27k	27k	27k	27k
Bereavement Support Payment	98k	98k	99k	99k	100k	100k	101k
Widowed Parent's Allowance	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Tax-Free Childcare	1,018k	1,029k	1,028k	1,033k	1,034k	1,039k	1,023k
Extended childcare entitlement	718k	724k	728k	732k	737k	741k	743k
Universal childcare entitlement	986k	989k	992k	997k	1,002k	1,013k	1,015k
Targeted childcare entitlement	98k	98k	96k	96k	96k	97k	84k
Care to Learn	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Childcare Grant	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Parents' Learning Allowance	98k	99k	99k	100k	100k	100k	101k
Adult Dependants' Grant	18k	18k	12k	13k	13k	13k	13k
Travel Grant	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Cost-of-living support payment	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Energy Bills Rebate	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Basic income	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Disability basic income	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k

Government balance, each component counted once: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Government receipts, each component once	£904.02bn	£948.22bn	£986.59bn	£1,021.15bn	£1,061.16bn	£1,098.47bn	£1,140.69bn
Government spending	£530.58bn †	£545.59bn †	£553.80bn †	£560.99bn †	£569.57bn †	£578.78bn †	£587.89bn †
Government balance, each receipt once	£373.44bn †	£402.63bn †	£432.79bn †	£460.16bn †	£491.59bn †	£519.69bn †	£552.80bn †
Benefits in household_benefits but not in gov_spending	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn

Model totals: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
gov_tax	£904.02bn	£948.22bn	£986.59bn	£1,021.15bn	£1,061.16bn	£1,098.47bn	£1,140.69bn
household_tax	£497.67bn	£528.51bn	£555.73bn	£579.27bn	£605.22bn	£630.03bn	£658.08bn
pre_budget_change_household_tax	£489.85bn	£520.38bn	£547.38bn	£570.23bn	£595.94bn	£620.49bn	£648.19bn
gov_spending	£530.58bn †	£545.59bn †	£553.80bn †	£560.99bn †	£569.57bn †	£578.78bn †	£587.89bn †
household_benefits	£530.58bn †	£545.59bn †	£553.80bn †	£560.99bn †	£569.57bn †	£578.78bn †	£587.89bn †
gov_balance	£373.44bn †	£402.63bn †	£432.79bn †	£460.16bn †	£491.59bn †	£519.69bn †	£552.80bn †

Household income totals: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Household market income	£1,657.06bn	£1,719.25bn	£1,771.68bn	£1,821.99bn	£1,872.88bn	£1,930.99bn	£2,001.98bn
Household net income	£1,650.70bn †	£1,695.57bn †	£1,727.87bn †	£1,760.76bn †	£1,793.15bn †	£1,834.40bn †	£1,884.74bn †
Household net income (HBAI definition)	£1,462.17bn	£1,509.90bn	£1,544.25bn	£1,577.67bn	£1,612.09bn	£1,651.53bn	£1,702.40bn

Population: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
People	69,514k	69,778k	70,036k	70,316k	70,626k	70,944k	71,249k
Benefit units	35,247k	35,381k	35,512k	35,654k	35,811k	35,972k	36,127k
Households	31,167k	31,285k	31,401k	31,526k	31,665k	31,808k	31,944k

Poverty rates: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone	16.1%	15.2%	15.5%	15.6%	15.7%	15.8%	15.8%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children	24.2%	21.4%	21.6%	21.6%	21.7%	22.0%	21.8%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	13.9%	13.5%	14.0%	14.2%	14.2%	14.3%	14.3%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	13.7%	13.2%	13.1%	13.4%	13.4%	13.5%	13.5%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone	21.6%	20.9%	21.3%	21.5%	21.8%	22.1%	22.2%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children	33.4%	30.9%	31.1%	31.1%	31.5%	32.0%	32.3%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	19.9%	19.7%	20.3%	20.5%	20.8%	21.0%	21.1%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	12.8%	12.6%	12.4%	12.6%	12.7%	13.0%	13.0%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone	17.2%	16.5%	16.5%	16.6%	16.3%	16.4%	16.4%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children	26.4%	23.7%	23.4%	23.4%	22.9%	23.0%	22.9%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	14.7%	14.4%	14.7%	14.8%	14.7%	14.8%	14.8%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	14.8%	14.8%	14.0%	14.2%	13.9%	14.0%	14.1%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone	21.7%	21.1%	21.2%	21.2%	21.4%	21.4%	21.7%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children	33.5%	31.3%	31.0%	30.8%	31.0%	31.1%	31.5%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	19.9%	19.8%	20.2%	20.3%	20.5%	20.5%	20.7%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	13.0%	12.7%	12.4%	12.1%	12.0%	12.1%	12.4%

People in poverty: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone	11,163k	10,583k	10,852k	11,004k	11,081k	11,222k	11,226k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children	3,629k	3,221k	3,260k	3,284k	3,310k	3,369k	3,350k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	5,902k	5,806k	6,080k	6,197k	6,234k	6,304k	6,319k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	1,632k	1,556k	1,512k	1,523k	1,537k	1,550k	1,556k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone	15,000k	14,571k	14,945k	15,112k	15,392k	15,663k	15,804k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children	5,004k	4,656k	4,703k	4,723k	4,808k	4,897k	4,966k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	8,476k	8,431k	8,812k	8,952k	9,130k	9,273k	9,341k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	1,520k	1,484k	1,430k	1,437k	1,455k	1,492k	1,497k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone	11,974k	11,507k	11,535k	11,642k	11,544k	11,663k	11,712k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children	3,963k	3,570k	3,543k	3,553k	3,489k	3,519k	3,522k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	6,246k	6,184k	6,378k	6,475k	6,460k	6,538k	6,563k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	1,765k	1,753k	1,615k	1,613k	1,595k	1,606k	1,628k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone	15,067k	14,732k	14,872k	14,931k	15,091k	15,202k	15,461k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children	5,019k	4,715k	4,686k	4,669k	4,725k	4,754k	4,839k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	8,497k	8,516k	8,764k	8,884k	8,992k	9,060k	9,192k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	1,551k	1,502k	1,422k	1,378k	1,374k	1,388k	1,429k

Inequality: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Gini coefficient, equivalised HBAI income before housing costs	0.3088	0.3061	0.3067	0.3073	0.3077	0.3083	0.3093

Mean household net income in each side's own deciles: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household	£17,768 †	£17,884 †	£17,830 †	£17,847 †	£18,125 †	£18,315 †	£18,440 †
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household	£27,995 †	£28,845 †	£28,594 †	£29,012 †	£29,189 †	£29,600 †	£30,278 †
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household	£34,275 †	£35,509 †	£36,037 †	£36,498 †	£36,760 †	£37,372 †	£37,928 †
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household	£38,650 †	£40,696 †	£41,778 †	£42,415 †	£43,055 †	£43,779 †	£44,259 †
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household	£43,775 †	£44,546 †	£45,584 †	£46,298 †	£47,371 †	£48,231 †	£49,554 †
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household	£48,323 †	£49,547 †	£50,591 †	£51,565 †	£51,587 †	£53,193 †	£54,178 †
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household	£56,215 †	£57,308 †	£58,072 †	£58,467 †	£59,609 †	£60,184 †	£61,764 †
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household	£69,098 †	£70,411 †	£71,825 †	£72,849 †	£74,256 †	£75,374 †	£77,582 †
Decile 9: mean household_net_income per household	£79,578 †	£81,719 †	£82,750 †	£84,111 †	£85,450 †	£86,991 †	£89,920 †
Decile 10: mean household_net_income per household	£117,506 †	£120,013 †	£121,860 †	£123,908 †	£125,844 †	£128,160 †	£130,960 †

Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance): head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp	£6.22bn	£6.50bn	£6.70bn	£6.90bn	£7.11bn	£7.34bn	£7.62bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp	£3.54bn	£3.82bn	£4.05bn	£4.27bn	£4.49bn	£4.76bn	£4.96bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year	£-3.83bn	£-3.96bn	£-4.03bn	£-4.10bn	£-4.19bn	£-4.30bn	£-2.02bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child	£-2.00bn	£-1.76bn	£-1.58bn	£-1.48bn	£-1.38bn	£-1.28bn	£-1.17bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%	£-20.49bn	£-21.05bn	£-21.50bn	£-21.94bn	£-22.03bn	£-22.40bn	£-22.87bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%	£11.07bn	£11.51bn	£11.84bn	£12.14bn	£12.49bn	£12.83bn	£13.23bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp	£25.01bn	£25.68bn	£26.29bn	£26.92bn	£27.58bn	£28.26bn	£28.95bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp	£2.83bn	£3.07bn	£3.27bn	£3.47bn	£3.67bn	suppressed	suppressed
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%	£-3.03bn	£-3.16bn	£-3.28bn	£-3.35bn	£-3.39bn	£-3.44bn	£-3.51bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%	£-7.81bn	£-8.07bn	£-8.06bn	£-8.18bn	£-8.43bn	£-8.60bn	£-8.96bn

Standard reforms: change in each reform's target: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp: change in income_tax	£6.36bn	£6.65bn	£6.86bn	£7.07bn	£7.28bn	£7.52bn	£7.80bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp: change in income_tax	£3.55bn	£3.83bn	£4.06bn	£4.28bn	£4.50bn	£4.77bn	£4.97bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year: change in income_tax	£-3.96bn	£-4.10bn	£-4.19bn	£-4.26bn	£-4.36bn	£-4.47bn	£-1.77bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child: change in child_benefit	£2.34bn	£2.15bn	£1.96bn	£1.85bn	£1.74bn	£1.63bn	£1.51bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%: change in universal_credit	£20.48bn	£21.04bn	£21.49bn	£21.93bn	£22.02bn	£22.40bn	£22.86bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%: change in national_insurance	£11.33bn	£11.79bn	£12.13bn	£12.44bn	£12.78bn	£13.13bn	£13.62bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp: change in vat	£25.01bn	£25.68bn	£26.29bn	£26.92bn	£27.58bn	£28.26bn	£28.95bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax	£2.83bn	£3.07bn	£3.27bn	£3.47bn	£3.67bn	suppressed	suppressed
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%: change in universal_credit	£3.03bn	£3.16bn	£3.28bn	£3.36bn	£3.41bn	£3.47bn	£3.52bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%: change in state_pension	£10.72bn	£11.23bn	£11.37bn	£11.62bn	£12.08bn	£12.54bn	£13.07bn

[MaxGhenis]

Merged by the UK hub (Claude session 8e19f9d5) through the merge queue with the head pinned. The head is recorded in the lander log.

• What it does: it refreshes the OBR receipts growth series in yoy_growth.yaml from the EFO receipts tables, with an importer that refuses anything it could misread. Budget day's EFO (28 Oct) goes through this importer.
• First review (GPT-6.1 Sol, at 749b547c5): it confirmed all eight earlier findings fixed. It had one P1: the importer didn't read each table's cash units, so a release in £m would have silently written a growth value 1,000 times too large.
• Hub fix: three commits to 9ca3cfd2d. They add receipt-unit validation, real-workbook and Hypothesis tests, Update corporate SDLT and business rates statistics and project them with OBR receipts #2322's corrected 2019 England source link, and documentation of the existing 4-decimal economy-series rounding, whose behaviour is unchanged.
• Second review (GPT-6.1 Sol, APPROVE at 9ca3cfd2d):
  • Each selected table must now declare pounds billion in its own header, and the check runs before any level is read, for both releases.
  • The reviewer's attacks on the real OBR March 2026 workbook (SHA-256 f65b6cb7…) all refuse before writing anything. They cover sheet 3.8 converted to £m with every value scaled, missing or unknown units, mismatched or both-£m releases, and footnote-only units. A shifted header gives identical output.
  • The committed yoy_growth.yaml reproduces byte for byte from the real March 2026 and March 2025 workbooks.
  • Its local run passed 130 tests (105 importer, 25 full-workbook probes).
• Main merge (d35650c49): once Update corporate SDLT and business rates statistics and project them with OBR receipts #2322 merged, the hub merged main into the branch with no conflicts. The PR's net diff against main has the same patch-id as the reviewed 9ca3cfd2d, so the reviewed change is what lands.
• CI: CI only ran once the PR targeted main after Update corporate SDLT and business rates statistics and project them with OBR receipts #2322 merged; every check passes at the landed head. The merge queue re-runs the full suite.
• Impact: none on model outputs. The receipts YAML is unchanged apart from comments.
• Why now: the importer runs on Budget day's EFO, and Max asked on 22 Oct to clear the UK PR backlog before the Budget.