Skip to content

Make the salary sacrifice NI measures equal the change in Class 1 liability, and correct mis-declared units - #2363

Merged
MaxGhenis merged 6 commits into
mainfrom
fix-salary-sacrifice-ni-measures-and-units
Oct 24, 2026
Merged

MaxGhenis merged 6 commits into
mainfrom
fix-salary-sacrifice-ni-measures-and-units

Conversation

@MaxGhenis

@MaxGhenis MaxGhenis commented Oct 12, 2026 •

Copy link
Copy Markdown
Collaborator

Fixes #2361
Fixes #2362

The salary sacrifice NI reporting measures now equal the change in complete Class 1 liability caused by salary_sacrifice_pension_ni_excess. The excess remains an employer pension contribution and enters NIC earnings only, following merged #2462 (b814f507); ordinary employment income and actual member contributions stay unchanged.

  • Employee: use the contribution scale month by month with primary liability/age conditions. Preserve the annual full-year category A director schedule when it applies.
  • Employer: use the annual secondary contribution scale and liability flag, including employer pension contributions when the model charges them.
  • Threshold crossings use both applicable bands. The counterfactual removes salary_sacrifice_pension_ni_excess, rather than the obsolete salary_sacrifice_returned_to_income route.
  • Both remain reporting measures already included in Class 1 liability. They must not be added to NI totals. Their recorded totals can change when the registered salary_sacrifice_cap Budget measure is recomputed.

The existing unit corrections are retained: shareholding and consumption_shareholding are ratios/stocks; free_tv_licence_value is GBP/a flow; boolean flags carry no currency unit. This corrects monthly reads and metadata without changing annual values.

test_salary_sacrifice_ni_only.py no longer asserts the old single-rate approximation (£28,000 × 2% = £560 employee NI for an 80-year-old with £160,000 cash wages and a £30,000 sacrifice). It now checks both measures against the difference in ni_class_1_employee and ni_class_1_employer between the capped and uncapped simulations for every case. It pins the 80-year-old at £0 employee (primary contributions end at pensionable age, SSCBA 1992 s.6(3)) and £4,200 employer (£28,000 at 15%).

Merged current origin/main without rewriting branch history, resolved both measure conflicts and the employer YAML conflict, and adapted formulas, YAML expectations and property tests to main’s contribution scales and NIC-only earnings. In particular, £50,000 pay plus £8,000 excess crosses the upper earnings limit and contributes £176.20, rather than £640.

Validation at 849c30d (main c65bced merged), local, locked venv, -n 4:

Tests Result
test_salary_sacrifice_ni_only.py 28 passed
test_salary_sacrifice_ni_measure_properties.py and test_variable_units.py 13 passed
test_salary_sacrifice_needs_pay_properties.py 3 passed
National Insurance YAML 166 passed
Pension Credit YAML 299 passed

Hypothesis shrinking was off for the property runs, with the same examples. uvx ruff format --check . passes (1,960 files).

Open items: hub independent review and CI. National microsimulation totals were not run by the adoption jobs; no dataset build was started. No new changes to simulation.py beyond the merge from main.

Reproducer: policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/gov/hmrc/national_insurance/salary_sacrifice_pension_ni_employee.yaml, policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/gov/hmrc/national_insurance/salary_sacrifice_pension_ni_employer.yaml, policyengine_uk/tests/test_salary_sacrifice_ni_measure_properties.py::test_measures_equal_the_difference_of_complete_liabilities

MaxGhenis and others added 3 commits October 11, 2026 20:00
salary_sacrifice_pension_ni_employee and _employer multiplied the whole
amount returned to income by one rate. An amount crossing the upper
earnings limit was charged entirely at the additional rate, an amount
below the primary or secondary threshold was charged in full, and the
age conditions on Class 1 were ignored.

Each measure is now the complete Class 1 liability on earnings less the
liability on the same earnings without the amount returned. They remain
reporting measures: no tax total reads them.

Refs #2361

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
…ence

Property test: each measure equals the complete Class 1 liability of a
simulation with the amount returned less that of the same people with
nothing returned, under current law and in a world where the employee
rates and upper earnings limit change within a year. Also bounds, exact
zeros, the single-rate case and monotonicity.

Refs #2361

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
shareholding and consumption_shareholding return a share of a national
total but declared pounds; free_tv_licence_value returns pounds but
declared a ratio; seven true/false variables declared a unit.

The unit also sets the default quantity type in policyengine-core: a
float with unit "/1" is a stock, any other float a flow, and a yearly
flow read for a month is divided by twelve. So a month's read of a share
was a twelfth of the share, and a month's read of the free TV licence
value was the whole year's. Every reader of these variables in the model
reads them for a year, so no yearly value changes.

Refs #2362

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@vahid-ahmadi

Copy link
Copy Markdown
Collaborator

@MaxGhenis a heads-up on merge order with #2462 (salary-sacrifice cap within National Insurance).

#2462 returns only the NI excess over the cap to earnings, through a new salary_sacrifice_pension_ni_excess, and stops salary_sacrifice_returned_to_income driving the NI side. This PR's measures in salary_sacrifice_pension_ni_*.py read salary_sacrifice_returned_to_income, and git merge-tree at 385c547b5 conflicts with #2462 in both of those files and in salary_sacrifice_pension_ni_employer.yaml. Rebased onto #2462 as they stand, both measures would come out as zero.

The suggestion in the #2462 review is to land #2462 first, then point these measures at salary_sacrifice_pension_ni_excess when this comes out of draft.

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

@MaxGhenis

Copy link
Copy Markdown
Collaborator Author

Adoption hand-off for the UK hub

Head: 2cb97b6a98ac1e58592299ec495a38b349d43ae5 (author retained; merged origin/main d62d5f3b6d66c0a9657d26cca66bc5e6a5b7dd00 with a merge commit).

Changed: resolved both NI measure conflicts and employer YAML; both measures read salary_sacrifice_pension_ni_excess and use main’s contribution scales. Employee calculation follows monthly liability and the applicable annual director schedule; employer calculation follows secondary liability. Updated the differential counterfactual and cash-vs-NIC YAML expectations, including the £50,000 threshold crossing (£176.20). Existing unit corrections retained. No new edits to simulation.py beyond main’s merge.

Tests: 0 runtime tests run. Changed Python lint passed; repository-wide uvx ruff format --check . passed (1,945 files). The required gate failed repeatedly: latest load1 37.15 and free disk 51.35 decimal GB from os.statvfs (minimum 55 GB). No gated test or microsimulation was launched. Locked venv: policyengine-core 3.33.2.

Open items: run the queued focused YAML/property/unit tests with -n 2 once disk permits; CI; hub independent review. National totals remain unmeasured. Registered Budget measure salary_sacrifice_cap is affected through reporting totals. No new legal interpretation beyond main’s NIC-only excess structure. PR remains draft; not merged or closed.

@github-actions

github-actions Bot commented Oct 22, 2026 •

Copy link
Copy Markdown
Contributor

Aggregate impact on certified data: pass

Base c65bced644 against head 7ded7bc2b0, both on enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5 (policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1, sha256 056e80fd8e91), fiscal years 2025-26 to 2031-32. Each year is a full microsimulation run on each side.

Checks: 0 broken by this change, 1 failing on both sides, 0 fixed. Moves flagged for review: 0 (thresholds in report_spec.yaml; a flag does not fail the job).

Workflow run and full report

Notes

  • In the years a figure from fewer than 10 records is suppressed (spending.disabled_students_allowance), every total containing it, and the decile incomes, are rebuilt from their other components, so no published total includes it. Those totals are marked †. A change is withheld where the two sides leave out different figures and can't be lined up.

Moves flagged for review

None.

Spending by benefit and service

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed

Caseloads

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed

Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance)

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise additional rate by 3pp 0 0 0 0 0 suppressed suppressed

Standard reforms: change in each reform's target

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax 0 0 0 0 0 suppressed suppressed

Household net income by decile

No household's net income changes in any year.

No change in any year: receipts by tax head; government balance, each component counted once; model totals; household income totals; population; poverty rates; people in poverty; inequality; mean household net income in each side's own deciles.

Checks failing on both base and head (1)
  • VAT is never negative (sign:vat): 2025-26: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-54,797,972 in total; 2026-27: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-56,271,349 in total; 2027-28: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-57,609,146 in total
Counted-once check

Each of 84 components was raised by £1 per unit in 2026-27, and every head of its totals was read household by household: its own head must rise by exactly £1, no other tax head may move, no other benefit may rise, and the model's own total must move by what its heads moved. A head that breaks a rule is measured again twice: with every other head held at its baseline value, and with every other head held at its value after the first £1 while the component rises again. It fails where either still shows the response. 0 failed; 0 were skipped.

Provenance
Side Commit Runtime Environment hash Partition hash Time
base main c65bced644 uk 2.148.3 (files d7572c3e5c6c), core 3.33.2, py 3.13.17 aarch64 31784e87dc6a d4c1e9f08160 1595.66s
head #2363 merged into main 7ded7bc2b0 uk 2.148.3 (files 3d22684422c2), core 3.33.2, py 3.13.17 aarch64 31784e87dc6a d4c1e9f08160 1642.37s

Dataset: hf://policyengine/policyengine-uk-data-private/enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5@2526edbbb687a3b54dbb11272e5389e4b62d2ac2, sha256 056e80fd8e9151d78f432a25cde863340baee81304c6216a37fb575ce8563784 (verified on both sides), policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1.

Receipts by tax head: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Income tax £299.29bn £319.01bn £336.54bn £351.69bn £367.24bn £385.36bn £403.66bn
National Insurance (employee and self-employed) £52.58bn £54.94bn £56.75bn £58.48bn £60.62bn £62.57bn £65.03bn
National Insurance (employer) £152.64bn £159.18bn £164.14bn £168.73bn £176.11bn £181.72bn £188.90bn
Employer NI change borne by capital £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Employer NI change borne by consumers £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Capital gains tax £12.62bn £13.06bn £13.55bn £14.04bn £14.54bn £15.09bn £15.65bn
Student loan repayments £7.83bn £8.12bn £8.35bn £8.56bn £8.79bn £9.04bn £9.38bn
VAT £253.71bn £260.53bn £266.72bn £273.14bn £279.83bn £286.71bn £293.71bn
Change in VAT from its baseline £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
VAT on private school fees £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Fuel duties £24.53bn £24.64bn £26.64bn £26.69bn £26.42bn £25.76bn £26.35bn
Alcohol duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Tobacco duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Vehicle excise duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
TV licence fee £4.28bn £4.43bn £4.44bn £4.46bn £4.48bn £4.51bn £4.53bn
Council tax £49.56bn £52.45bn £55.78bn £59.39bn £62.98bn £66.74bn £70.70bn
High value council tax surcharge £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.48bn £0.49bn £0.51bn £0.52bn
Northern Ireland domestic rates £0.55bn £0.58bn £0.61bn £0.63bn £0.67bn £0.70bn £0.73bn
Business rates £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn
Stamp duty land tax on the household's own purchases £6.93bn £7.42bn £7.85bn £8.26bn £8.68bn £9.09bn £9.51bn
Stamp duty land tax paid by companies £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn
Land transaction tax (Wales) £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Land and buildings transaction tax (Scotland) £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn
Unspecified tax change borne by capital £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Unspecified tax change borne by consumers £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Wealth tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Wealth tax excluding the main residence £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Land value tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Carbon tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Spending by benefit and service: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
State Pension £122.15bn £126.64bn £127.76bn £129.65bn £133.46bn £137.40bn £141.47bn
Pension Credit £6.68bn £7.07bn £7.09bn £7.16bn £7.28bn £7.42bn £7.52bn
Winter Fuel Payment £1.70bn £1.68bn £1.59bn £1.57bn £1.57bn £1.55bn £1.52bn
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland) £0.19bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.21bn £0.21bn £0.22bn £0.22bn
Universal Credit £75.54bn £80.75bn £83.40bn £85.21bn £86.21bn £87.61bn £88.91bn
Housing Benefit £8.59bn £8.93bn £9.19bn £9.33bn £9.61bn £9.87bn £10.15bn
Council Tax Reduction £1.99bn £2.03bn £2.08bn £2.13bn £2.18bn £2.23bn £2.29bn
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related) £2.12bn £2.18bn £2.23bn £2.28bn £2.33bn £2.39bn £2.45bn
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based) £5.22bn £5.36bn £5.49bn £5.62bn £5.76bn £5.90bn £6.04bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based) £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based) £0.29bn £0.30bn £0.30bn £0.31bn £0.32bn £0.33bn £0.33bn
Income Support £0.12bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Working Tax Credit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Child Tax Credit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Incapacity Benefit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Personal Independence Payment £27.05bn £28.19bn £29.28bn £30.02bn £30.75bn £31.51bn £32.28bn
Disability Living Allowance £7.52bn £7.83bn £8.14bn £8.34bn £8.55bn £8.76bn £8.97bn
Attendance Allowance £8.71bn £9.08bn £9.43bn £9.67bn £9.90bn £10.15bn £10.40bn
Carer's Allowance £4.50bn £4.69bn £4.87bn £4.99bn £5.11bn £5.23bn £5.36bn
Carer Support Payment (Scotland) £0.31bn £0.32bn £0.34bn £0.34bn £0.35bn £0.36bn £0.37bn
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland) £0.00bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn
Severe Disablement Allowance £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit £0.51bn £0.52bn £0.53bn £0.54bn £0.56bn £0.57bn £0.59bn
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme £0.61bn £0.62bn £0.64bn £0.65bn £0.67bn £0.69bn £0.70bn
War Widow's or Widower's Pension £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Child Benefit £16.23bn £16.91bn £17.53bn £17.96bn £18.39bn £18.84bn £19.29bn
Scottish Child Payment £0.50bn £0.52bn £0.53bn £0.55bn £0.56bn £0.57bn £0.58bn
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual) £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Healthy Start vouchers £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn
Maternity Allowance £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Statutory Maternity Pay £3.32bn £3.41bn £3.49bn £3.57bn £3.66bn £3.75bn £3.84bn
Statutory Paternity Pay £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Statutory Sick Pay £1.13bn £1.16bn £1.19bn £1.22bn £1.25bn £1.28bn £1.31bn
Sure Start Maternity Grant £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn
Bereavement Support Payment £0.67bn £0.69bn £0.70bn £0.72bn £0.74bn £0.76bn £0.78bn
Tax-Free Childcare £0.55bn £0.56bn £0.57bn £0.58bn £0.60bn £0.61bn £0.59bn
Extended childcare entitlement £2.77bn £3.27bn £3.36bn £3.43bn £3.53bn £3.61bn £3.70bn
Universal childcare entitlement £2.26bn £2.45bn £2.51bn £2.58bn £2.64bn £2.72bn £2.78bn
Targeted childcare entitlement £0.47bn £0.49bn £0.50bn £0.51bn £0.52bn £0.53bn £0.47bn
Care to Learn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Childcare Grant £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Parents' Learning Allowance £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn
Adult Dependants' Grant £0.06bn £0.06bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn
Travel Grant £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
NHS spending £204.68bn £205.46bn £206.22bn £207.04bn £207.96bn £208.89bn £209.79bn
State education spending £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn
Transport subsidy spending £25.15bn £25.25bn £25.34bn £25.44bn £25.55bn £25.67bn £25.78bn
Cost-of-living support payment £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Energy Bills Rebate £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Basic income £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Disability basic income £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Other public spending budget change £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Caseloads: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
State Pension 11,308k 11,208k 10,906k 10,812k 10,860k 10,908k 10,955k
Pension Credit 1,491k 1,489k 1,478k 1,459k 1,459k 1,456k 1,453k
Winter Fuel Payment 7,091k 7,011k 6,599k 6,512k 6,493k 6,379k 6,248k
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland) 806k 807k 807k 805k 809k 812k 816k
Universal Credit 6,361k 6,370k 6,404k 6,419k 6,390k 6,387k 6,368k
Housing Benefit 1,254k 1,252k 1,254k 1,239k 1,245k 1,247k 1,249k
Council Tax Reduction 3,186k 3,211k 3,226k 3,245k 3,264k 3,281k 3,293k
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related) 187k 188k 188k 189k 190k 190k 191k
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based) 722k 724k 727k 730k 733k 737k 740k
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based) 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based) 67k 67k 68k 68k 68k 69k 69k
Income Support 25k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Working Tax Credit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Child Tax Credit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Incapacity Benefit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Personal Independence Payment 3,581k 3,595k 3,608k 3,623k 3,639k 3,655k 3,671k
Disability Living Allowance 1,296k 1,301k 1,306k 1,311k 1,317k 1,323k 1,329k
Attendance Allowance 1,701k 1,708k 1,714k 1,721k 1,729k 1,736k 1,744k
Carer's Allowance 1,038k 1,042k 1,046k 1,050k 1,055k 1,059k 1,064k
Carer Support Payment (Scotland) 71k 72k 72k 72k 73k 73k 73k
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland) 0k 72k 72k 72k 73k 73k 73k
Severe Disablement Allowance 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit 137k 138k 139k 139k 140k 140k 141k
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme 94k 94k 94k 95k 95k 95k 96k
War Widow's or Widower's Pension 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Child Benefit 8,136k 8,165k 8,185k 8,215k 8,249k 8,282k 8,314k
Scottish Child Payment 352k 354k 355k 359k 357k 358k 357k
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual) 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Healthy Start vouchers 200k 201k 202k 203k 204k 204k 205k
Maternity Allowance 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Statutory Maternity Pay 334k 335k 336k 338k 339k 341k 342k
Statutory Paternity Pay 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Statutory Sick Pay 182k 183k 183k 184k 185k 186k 186k
Sure Start Maternity Grant 26k 26k 26k 27k 27k 27k 27k
Bereavement Support Payment 98k 98k 99k 99k 100k 100k 101k
Tax-Free Childcare 1,018k 1,029k 1,028k 1,033k 1,034k 1,039k 1,023k
Extended childcare entitlement 718k 724k 728k 732k 737k 741k 743k
Universal childcare entitlement 986k 989k 992k 997k 1,002k 1,013k 1,015k
Targeted childcare entitlement 98k 98k 96k 96k 96k 97k 84k
Care to Learn 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Childcare Grant 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Parents' Learning Allowance 98k 99k 99k 100k 100k 100k 101k
Adult Dependants' Grant 18k 18k 12k 13k 13k 13k 13k
Travel Grant 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Cost-of-living support payment 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Energy Bills Rebate 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Basic income 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Disability basic income 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Government balance, each component counted once: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Government receipts, each component once £899.38bn £939.24bn £976.25bn £1,009.45bn £1,045.73bn £1,082.67bn £1,123.55bn
Government spending £531.92bn † £546.96bn † £554.90bn † £562.04bn † £570.63bn † £579.83bn † £588.90bn †
Government balance, each receipt once £367.47bn † £392.28bn † £421.35bn † £447.41bn † £475.10bn † £502.84bn † £534.65bn †
Benefits in household_benefits but not in gov_spending £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Model totals: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
gov_tax £899.38bn £939.24bn £976.25bn £1,009.45bn £1,045.73bn £1,082.67bn £1,123.55bn
household_tax £493.03bn £519.53bn £545.39bn £567.58bn £589.79bn £614.24bn £640.95bn
pre_budget_change_household_tax £485.21bn £511.41bn £537.04bn £558.54bn £580.51bn £604.69bn £631.05bn
gov_spending £531.92bn † £546.96bn † £554.90bn † £562.04bn † £570.63bn † £579.83bn † £588.90bn †
household_benefits £531.92bn † £546.96bn † £554.90bn † £562.04bn † £570.63bn † £579.83bn † £588.90bn †
gov_balance £367.47bn † £392.28bn † £421.35bn † £447.41bn † £475.10bn † £502.84bn † £534.65bn †
Household income totals: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Household market income £1,657.06bn £1,719.25bn £1,771.68bn £1,821.99bn £1,872.88bn £1,930.99bn £2,001.98bn
Household net income £1,656.67bn † £1,705.92bn † £1,739.31bn † £1,773.51bn † £1,809.65bn † £1,851.24bn † £1,902.89bn †
Household net income (HBAI definition) £1,463.15bn £1,510.70bn £1,544.54bn £1,577.63bn £1,611.73bn £1,650.77bn £1,701.20bn
Population: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
People 69,514k 69,778k 70,036k 70,316k 70,626k 70,944k 71,249k
Benefit units 35,247k 35,381k 35,512k 35,654k 35,811k 35,972k 36,127k
Households 31,167k 31,285k 31,401k 31,526k 31,665k 31,808k 31,944k
Poverty rates: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone 16.2% 15.2% 15.5% 15.7% 15.7% 15.8% 15.8%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children 24.6% 21.4% 21.6% 21.6% 21.8% 22.0% 21.9%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 13.9% 13.5% 14.0% 14.1% 14.2% 14.3% 14.2%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 13.7% 13.2% 13.2% 13.5% 13.5% 13.6% 13.6%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone 21.5% 20.8% 21.4% 21.6% 21.9% 22.2% 22.2%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children 33.4% 30.9% 31.2% 31.3% 31.7% 32.2% 32.3%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 19.8% 19.6% 20.3% 20.4% 20.8% 21.0% 21.0%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 12.8% 12.6% 12.6% 13.0% 13.3% 13.4% 13.4%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone 17.2% 16.5% 16.5% 16.6% 16.4% 16.5% 16.6%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children 26.4% 23.7% 23.4% 23.4% 22.9% 23.0% 23.4%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 14.6% 14.4% 14.6% 14.8% 14.7% 14.8% 14.9%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 15.0% 14.8% 14.1% 14.2% 14.0% 14.1% 14.2%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone 21.7% 21.1% 21.3% 21.3% 21.4% 21.5% 21.9%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children 33.5% 31.3% 31.1% 31.0% 31.0% 31.1% 31.7%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 19.9% 19.8% 20.2% 20.3% 20.4% 20.5% 20.8%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 13.0% 12.7% 12.6% 12.3% 12.2% 12.2% 13.1%
People in poverty: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone 11,270k 10,578k 10,858k 11,007k 11,103k 11,238k 11,252k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children 3,696k 3,227k 3,267k 3,285k 3,319k 3,371k 3,363k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 5,940k 5,792k 6,071k 6,182k 6,234k 6,302k 6,314k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 1,634k 1,559k 1,519k 1,540k 1,550k 1,566k 1,575k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone 14,972k 14,539k 14,956k 15,179k 15,479k 15,741k 15,843k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children 5,005k 4,656k 4,709k 4,752k 4,834k 4,930k 4,973k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 8,445k 8,399k 8,796k 8,942k 9,125k 9,271k 9,320k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 1,521k 1,484k 1,452k 1,485k 1,520k 1,539k 1,550k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone 11,980k 11,485k 11,528k 11,641k 11,552k 11,677k 11,832k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children 3,967k 3,570k 3,543k 3,556k 3,491k 3,522k 3,593k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 6,227k 6,161k 6,359k 6,462k 6,453k 6,536k 6,596k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 1,785k 1,754k 1,627k 1,623k 1,608k 1,619k 1,644k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone 15,057k 14,705k 14,915k 14,985k 15,110k 15,227k 15,621k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children 5,024k 4,718k 4,698k 4,701k 4,731k 4,765k 4,874k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 8,480k 8,486k 8,769k 8,885k 8,981k 9,056k 9,230k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 1,552k 1,501k 1,448k 1,398k 1,398k 1,405k 1,516k
Inequality: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Gini coefficient, equivalised HBAI income before housing costs 0.3087 0.3060 0.3067 0.3074 0.3079 0.3085 0.3096
Mean household net income in each side's own deciles: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household £17,832 † £18,015 † £18,026 † £18,059 † £18,395 † £18,583 † £18,743 †
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household £28,134 † £29,089 † £28,825 † £29,239 † £29,564 † £29,945 † £30,476 †
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household £34,455 † £35,681 † £36,264 † £36,779 † £37,076 † £37,626 † £38,511 †
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household £39,398 † £41,043 † £42,036 † £42,777 † £43,509 † £44,366 † £44,673 †
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household £43,698 † £45,019 † £46,119 † £46,804 † £47,819 † £48,805 † £49,921 †
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household £48,494 † £49,775 † £50,906 † £51,593 † £52,132 † £53,429 † £54,829 †
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household £56,356 † £57,547 † £58,429 † £59,170 † £60,256 † £60,799 † £62,484 †
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household £68,817 † £70,403 † £71,736 † £73,017 † £74,372 † £75,880 † £77,602 †
Decile 9: mean household_net_income per household £79,735 † £82,088 † £83,308 † £84,528 † £86,191 † £87,657 † £90,676 †
Decile 10: mean household_net_income per household £117,772 † £120,640 † £122,567 † £124,670 † £126,895 † £129,221 † £132,115 †
Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance): head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp £6.22bn £6.50bn £6.70bn £6.90bn £7.11bn £7.34bn £7.62bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp £3.54bn £3.82bn £4.05bn £4.27bn £4.49bn £4.76bn £4.96bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year £-3.83bn £-3.96bn £-4.03bn £-4.10bn £-4.19bn £-4.30bn £-2.02bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child £-2.00bn £-1.76bn £-1.58bn £-1.48bn £-1.38bn £-1.28bn £-1.17bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20% £-20.49bn £-21.05bn £-21.50bn £-21.94bn £-22.03bn £-22.40bn £-22.87bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10% £11.07bn £11.51bn £11.84bn £12.14bn £12.49bn £12.83bn £13.23bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp £25.01bn £25.68bn £26.29bn £26.92bn £27.58bn £28.26bn £28.95bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp £2.83bn £3.07bn £3.27bn £3.47bn £3.67bn suppressed suppressed
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10% £-3.03bn £-3.16bn £-3.28bn £-3.35bn £-3.39bn £-3.44bn £-3.51bn
Raise the State Pension by 10% £-7.81bn £-8.07bn £-7.99bn £-8.11bn £-8.36bn £-8.66bn £-9.02bn
Standard reforms: change in each reform's target: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp: change in income_tax £6.36bn £6.65bn £6.86bn £7.07bn £7.28bn £7.52bn £7.80bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp: change in income_tax £3.55bn £3.83bn £4.06bn £4.28bn £4.50bn £4.77bn £4.97bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year: change in income_tax £-3.96bn £-4.10bn £-4.19bn £-4.26bn £-4.36bn £-4.47bn £-1.77bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child: change in child_benefit £2.34bn £2.15bn £1.96bn £1.85bn £1.74bn £1.63bn £1.51bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%: change in universal_credit £20.48bn £21.04bn £21.49bn £21.93bn £22.02bn £22.40bn £22.86bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%: change in national_insurance £11.33bn £11.79bn £12.13bn £12.44bn £12.78bn £13.13bn £13.62bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp: change in vat £25.01bn £25.68bn £26.29bn £26.92bn £27.58bn £28.26bn £28.95bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax £2.83bn £3.07bn £3.27bn £3.47bn £3.67bn suppressed suppressed
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%: change in universal_credit £3.03bn £3.16bn £3.28bn £3.36bn £3.41bn £3.47bn £3.52bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%: change in state_pension £10.72bn £11.23bn £11.37bn £11.62bn £12.08bn £12.54bn £13.07bn

MaxGhenis and others added 2 commits October 23, 2026 02:41
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
…nces

test_ni_reporting_readers_retain_their_existing_approximation expected £560
of employee NI (£28,000 at the 2% additional rate) for an 80-year-old with
£160,000 cash wages and a £30,000 sacrifice. Since this PR the measures are
the change in Class 1 liability, and primary contributions end at
pensionable age (SSCBA 1992 s.6(3)), so the employee measure is £0; the
employer measure is £28,000 at 15%, £4,200. The test now checks both
measures against the difference in ni_class_1_employee and
ni_class_1_employer between the capped and uncapped simulations for every
case, and pins the 80-year-old's £0 and £4,200.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis

Copy link
Copy Markdown
Collaborator Author

Backlog F hand-off (UK hub build job, 2026-10-23)

Head: 849c30d9cf108c2b0de850f9b534c441e1439ad2. I merged origin/main at c65bced64 with a merge commit (9ccace92f), then added one test-only commit (849c30d9c). There is no force-push and the author is unchanged.

Change. This fixes the blocking finding in the tax3 review (~/reviews/uk-hub/reviews/tax3/REVIEW.md). test_ni_reporting_readers_retain_their_existing_approximation is replaced by test_ni_reporting_measures_equal_the_change_in_class_1_liability, in test_salary_sacrifice_ni_only.py. For 2029 and 2030 it checks three things:

  • For all nine cases, each measure equals the capped minus uncapped difference in ni_class_1_employee and ni_class_1_employer (atol £0.03).
  • Each measure is zero in the uncapped simulation.
  • The 80-year-old (£160,000 cash wages, £30,000 sacrifice, £28,000 excess) is pinned at £0 employee and £4,200 employer. Primary contributions end at pensionable age (SSCBA 1992 s.6(3), ni_liable); secondary contributions continue (ni_class_1_secondary_liable); £28,000 at 15% is £4,200.

The obsolete approximation commentary is gone, along with the "approximate reporting helper" comment in the curve test. No formula changed.

Tests at 849c30d (local, foreground, -n 4):

Tests Result
test_salary_sacrifice_ni_only.py 28 passed
test_salary_sacrifice_ni_measure_properties.py and test_variable_units.py 13 passed
test_salary_sacrifice_needs_pay_properties.py 3 passed
NI YAML 166 passed
Pension Credit YAML 299 passed

Hypothesis shrinking was off for the property runs, with the same examples. Ruff format check passes.

Impact: the aggregate impact report at 59b7afcd4f showed no household change. No national costing was run for the registered salary_sacrifice_cap measure; that is still open, as the review notes.

Open: CI at this head and the hub's independent review. The PR is still a draft; I have not merged it or marked it ready.

@MaxGhenis
MaxGhenis marked this pull request as ready for review October 23, 2026 10:08
@MaxGhenis
MaxGhenis added this pull request to the merge queue Oct 23, 2026
Merged via the queue into main with commit 2e2b604 Oct 24, 2026
17 of 18 checks passed
@MaxGhenis
MaxGhenis deleted the fix-salary-sacrifice-ni-measures-and-units branch October 24, 2026 00:37
@MaxGhenis

Copy link
Copy Markdown
Collaborator Author

Merged by the UK hub (Claude session 8e19f9d5) at head 849c30d9c, through the merge queue with the head pinned.

  • What it does: the salary-sacrifice NI reporting measures now equal the change in Class 1 liability with and without the cap, and the PR corrects mis-declared units. The Budget dashboard's registered salary_sacrifice_cap measure depends on it.
  • First review (GPT-6.1 Sol, at 2cb97b6a9): the liability measures were correct, but one obsolete assertion failed CI: it expected £560 of employee NI for an 80-year-old, where the answer is £0.
  • Hub fix: merged main, plus one test-only commit. It replaced the £560 approximation with capped-minus-uncapped Class 1 liability checks, and pinned the 80-year-old at £0 employee and £4,200 employer NI.
  • Second review (GPT-6.1 Sol, APPROVE at this exact head):
    • The final commit changes only test_salary_sacrifice_ni_only.py, and the merge equals the automatic merge.
    • The expectations match SSCBA 1992 s.6(3): primary contributions end at pensionable age and secondary contributions continue. The reviewer hand-checked all nine cases at 8%/2%/15%.
    • The checks compare against independently computed liability formulas, not the reporting measures.
    • The dashboard's costing has the right sign and base, and NI is counted once in gov_tax.
    • Its local run passed 44 Python tests and 465 YAML cases.
  • CI: all 16 checks pass at this head. The merge queue re-runs the full suite against current main.
  • Impact: none on household net income; these are reporting measures (Aggregate impact report).
  • Why now: the Budget dashboard costs the salary sacrifice cap from these measures, and Max asked on 22 Oct to clear the UK PR backlog before the Budget.

MaxGhenis added a commit that referenced this pull request Oct 24, 2026
Conflicts with #2363 in salary_sacrifice_pension_ni_employer:
- formula: this branch's, which charges the excess above the earner's own
  secondary threshold (s.9, s.9A, s.9B);
- defined_for = "ni_class_1_secondary_liable" and the secondary liability
  note from main; references from both;
- YAML: main's cases, then this branch's.

main's test_salary_sacrifice_ni_measure_properties.py checks invariant 4
(one band, one rate) against the plain secondary threshold, which this
branch raises for earners under 21 and apprentices under 25. Its employer
bands now split at each earner's own threshold, worked out from the
parameters, and a known case aged 20 crosses the upper secondary threshold.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Sign up for free to join this conversation on GitHub. Already have an account? Sign in to comment

Labels

None yet

Projects

None yet

Development

Successfully merging this pull request may close these issues.

Shares, a pound amount and true/false variables declare the wrong unit Salary sacrifice NI measures charge the whole amount returned at one rate

2 participants