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Charge income tax on statutory paternity pay - #2368

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MaxGhenis merged 3 commits into
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fix-spp-income-tax
Oct 23, 2026
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MaxGhenis merged 3 commits into
mainfrom
fix-spp-income-tax

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@MaxGhenis MaxGhenis commented Oct 12, 2026 •

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Fixes #2367

Statutory paternity pay (SPP) is taxable under ITEPA 2003 s. 660 Table A. This PR adds it to employment_benefits so it is taxed with statutory sick and maternity pay. It also counts SPP in Housing Benefit and Council Tax Reduction applicable income, whose earnings definitions explicitly include it, so deducting its tax does not spuriously increase those awards.

The prerequisite #2365 is merged (b8ca8faa) and is included through a merge of current main. The required UC follow-up is complete: SPP is in TAXED_AS_WAGES, and an explicit SPP-only Hypothesis property checks that raising it cannot increase pre-cap UC. The final award may rise when additional earnings newly exempt a family from the benefit cap; Marriage Allowance cliffs and childcare-element openings are excluded from this property, as in the existing statutory-pay specifications. A pinned lone parent on £20,000 wages with £388.64 SPP ensures positive awards and a real tax increase/UC decrease.

A new hand-calculated UC YAML case checks £20,000 wages plus £2,000 SPP: income tax £1,886; Class 1 NI £754.40; net earned income £19,359.60; UC £10,516.50. The same family without SPP gets £11,308.50. The existing income-tax, HB and CTR YAML/property cases are retained.

Merge conflicts were resolved by preserving main’s shared HB net-earnings helper and pension-deduction regression cases while retaining the SPP changes. employment_benefits.py merged cleanly with all three payments. The helper and UC documentation now mention SPP. No new edits to simulation.py beyond the merge from main.

Validation at the adoption head: changed Python lint passed; uvx ruff format --check . passed (1,943 files). Runtime tests: 0 run. The required resource gate failed repeatedly: load1 remained below 110, but free disk from os.statvfs was 51.33 decimal GB against a minimum of 55 GB. Queued: statutory-paternity income-tax properties, UC statutory-pay properties, and the focused income-tax/HB/CTR/UC YAML cases, all under pytest with two workers. Locked venv uses policyengine-core 3.33.2.

Open items: gated runtime validation, CI, and hub independent review. The original PR’s historical survey impact run was not repeated by this adoption job. No microsimulation or dataset build was started. The PR remains draft; the hub owns landing.

Reproducer: policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/gov/hmrc/income_tax/bases/employment_benefits.yaml, policyengine_uk/tests/test_statutory_paternity_pay_income_tax_properties.py::test_statutory_paternity_pay_on_the_basic_rate_bears_20_percent, policyengine_uk/tests/test_uc_statutory_pay_properties.py::test_uc_does_not_increase_as_statutory_paternity_pay_rises

axiom: TheAxiomFoundation/rulespec-uk#460 queued in the original PR.

MaxGhenis and others added 2 commits October 11, 2026 21:33
ITEPA 2003 s. 660(1) Table A lists statutory paternity pay as a taxable
UK benefit with statutory sick and maternity pay, but employment_benefits
added only the latter two, so taxable_employment_income left SPP out.

Housing Benefit and Council Tax Reduction deduct all of a person's income
tax and NI but counted only SSP and SMP as income, although every scheme's
earnings definition includes SPP (HB Regs 2006 reg 35(1)(i), SPC reg
35(1)(i), NI equivalents; CTR SI 2012/2885 Sch 1 para 18(1)(j), SI
2012/2886, WSI 2013/3029, SSI 2012/319, SSI 2021/249). Count SPP there too,
so the tax on it does not raise those awards.

Fixes #2367

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Hypothesis properties over generated singles and couples across the four
nations: income tax never falls as statutory paternity pay rises, and rises
by at most a pound per pound without Marriage Allowance; statutory paternity
pay is taxed and means-tested as the same amount of statutory sick pay, and
taxed as wages where wages and profit cover pension contributions; and
employment_benefits and taxable_employment_income add up. Four of the five
fail against main's variables.

Refs #2367

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
MaxGhenis added a commit that referenced this pull request Oct 19, 2026
#2019 now measures net employed earnings from employment_income alone,
and takes the income tax payable on them as the top-slice tax without
anyone's employment income. Statutory sick, maternity and paternity pay
are earnings of an employed earner (SPC Regs 2002 reg. 17A(2)(h) and
(i)), so list them once, in
gov.dwp.pension_credit.guarantee_credit.statutory_payments, and read the
list in all three places that need employed earnings:
pension_credit_earnings, the Sch VI disregard's net earnings, and the
top-slice tax (whose branch now zeroes the statutory payments with
employment income). earnings_sources is back to employment and
self-employment income.

Property tests:
- drop the temporary point-count prints;
- the Housing Benefit differential draws only SSP and SMP until #2368
  counts statutory paternity pay in HB, and excludes savings-credit-only
  awards, whose HB income is the Pension Credit assessment plus the
  savings credit (HB (SPC) Regs 2006 reg 27);
- the move-between-wages-and-pay property checks Pension Credit
  quantities only.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
vahid-ahmadi added a commit that referenced this pull request Oct 20, 2026
#2464 added employer-paid Statutory Sick Pay and Statutory Maternity Pay
(employment_benefits) to relevant UK earnings for pension tax relief, in
line with FA 2004 s. 189(2) and HMRC PTM044100. Update the pension tax
relief page and the STBM comparison table to match, and note that
Statutory Paternity Pay still waits on #2368.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis

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Adoption hand-off for the UK hub

Head: df51910e215dc32b8a281080572b3f48a9b1de15; merged main d62d5f3b6d66c0a9657d26cca66bc5e6a5b7dd00 without rewriting history. Original author retained. Prerequisite #2365 (b8ca8faa) is included.

Changed: retained SPP income tax/HB/CTR fixes; completed TAXED_AS_WAGES and the explicit SPP UC non-increase property with a taxable positive-award example; added a hand-computed taxable-SPP UC YAML case. Preserved main’s shared HB helper and all pension-deduction YAML cases during conflict resolution. employment_benefits.py merged cleanly. No new simulation.py edits beyond main’s merge.

Tests: 0 runtime tests run, because the explicit gate failed (latest load1 67.19; free disk 51.33 decimal GB from os.statvfs; minimum 55 GB). Changed Python lint passed; repository-wide uvx ruff format --check . passed, 1,943 files. No microsimulation or dataset build launched.

Interpretation: SPP is explicitly taxable and employed earnings; no new ambiguous legal reading. The UC non-increase property excludes Marriage Allowance cliffs and childcare openings and allows a final-award rise on a new benefit-cap exemption, matching the existing reg. 55/82 specifications.

Open items: focused income-tax/UC property and tax/HB/CTR/UC YAML validation with -n 2 once disk permits; CI; hub independent review. Historical survey impacts not rerun. Remains draft; not merged or closed.

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Aggregate impact on certified data: pass

Base d62d5f3b6d against head 292a4a6748, both on enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5 (policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1, sha256 056e80fd8e91), fiscal years 2025-26 to 2031-32. Each year is a full microsimulation run on each side.

Checks: 0 broken by this change, 1 failing on both sides, 0 fixed. Moves flagged for review: 0 (thresholds in report_spec.yaml; a flag does not fail the job).

Workflow run and full report

Notes

  • In the years a figure from fewer than 10 records is suppressed (spending.disabled_students_allowance), every total containing it, and the decile incomes, are rebuilt from their other components, so no published total includes it. Those totals are marked †. A change is withheld where the two sides leave out different figures and can't be lined up.

Moves flagged for review

None.

Spending by benefit and service

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed

Caseloads

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed

Household net income by decile

No household's net income changes in any year.

No change in any year: receipts by tax head; government balance, each component counted once; model totals; household income totals; population; poverty rates; people in poverty; inequality; mean household net income in each side's own deciles; standard reform costings (change in gov_balance); standard reforms: change in each reform's target.

Checks failing on both base and head (1)
  • VAT is never negative (sign:vat): 2025-26: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-54,797,972 in total; 2026-27: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-56,271,349 in total; 2027-28: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-57,609,146 in total
Counted-once check

Each of 84 components was raised by £1 per unit in 2026-27, and every head of its totals was read household by household: its own head must rise by exactly £1, no other tax head may move, no other benefit may rise, and the model's own total must move by what its heads moved. A head that breaks a rule is measured again twice: with every other head held at its baseline value, and with every other head held at its value after the first £1 while the component rises again. It fails where either still shows the response. 0 failed; 0 were skipped.

Provenance
Side Commit Runtime Environment hash Partition hash Time
base main d62d5f3b6d uk 2.148.0 (files 4fae93cfc3ac), core 3.33.2, py 3.13.17 aarch64 e77106fcde53 d4c1e9f08160 1551.84s
head #2368 merged into main 292a4a6748 uk 2.148.0 (files e7bb48eece54), core 3.33.2, py 3.13.17 aarch64 e77106fcde53 d4c1e9f08160 1533.4s

Dataset: hf://policyengine/policyengine-uk-data-private/enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5@2526edbbb687a3b54dbb11272e5389e4b62d2ac2, sha256 056e80fd8e9151d78f432a25cde863340baee81304c6216a37fb575ce8563784 (verified on both sides), policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1.

Receipts by tax head: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Income tax £299.29bn £319.01bn £336.47bn £351.62bn £367.17bn £385.29bn £403.59bn
National Insurance (employee and self-employed) £52.58bn £54.94bn £56.75bn £58.48bn £60.62bn £62.57bn £65.03bn
National Insurance (employer) £152.64bn £159.18bn £164.14bn £168.73bn £176.11bn £181.72bn £188.90bn
Employer NI change borne by capital £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Employer NI change borne by consumers £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Capital gains tax £12.62bn £13.06bn £13.55bn £14.04bn £14.54bn £15.09bn £15.65bn
Student loan repayments £7.83bn £8.12bn £8.35bn £8.56bn £8.79bn £9.04bn £9.38bn
VAT £253.71bn £260.53bn £266.72bn £273.14bn £279.83bn £286.71bn £293.71bn
Change in VAT from its baseline £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
VAT on private school fees £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Fuel duties £24.53bn £24.64bn £26.64bn £26.69bn £26.42bn £25.76bn £26.35bn
Alcohol duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Tobacco duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Vehicle excise duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
TV licence fee £4.28bn £4.43bn £4.44bn £4.46bn £4.48bn £4.51bn £4.53bn
Council tax £49.56bn £52.45bn £55.78bn £59.39bn £62.98bn £66.74bn £70.70bn
High value council tax surcharge £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.48bn £0.49bn £0.51bn £0.52bn
Northern Ireland domestic rates £0.55bn £0.58bn £0.61bn £0.63bn £0.67bn £0.70bn £0.73bn
Business rates £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn
Stamp duty land tax on the household's own purchases £6.93bn £7.42bn £7.85bn £8.26bn £8.68bn £9.09bn £9.51bn
Stamp duty land tax paid by companies £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn
Land transaction tax (Wales) £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Land and buildings transaction tax (Scotland) £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn
Unspecified tax change borne by capital £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Unspecified tax change borne by consumers £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Wealth tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Wealth tax excluding the main residence £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Land value tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Carbon tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Spending by benefit and service: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
State Pension £122.15bn £126.64bn £127.57bn £129.47bn £133.29bn £137.24bn £141.32bn
Pension Credit £6.68bn £7.07bn £7.06bn £7.13bn £7.26bn £7.39bn £7.49bn
Winter Fuel Payment £1.70bn £1.68bn £1.59bn £1.58bn £1.57bn £1.55bn £1.52bn
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland) £0.19bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.21bn £0.21bn £0.22bn £0.22bn
Universal Credit £75.54bn £80.75bn £82.55bn £84.28bn £85.26bn £86.64bn £87.92bn
Housing Benefit £8.59bn £8.93bn £9.19bn £9.34bn £9.61bn £9.87bn £10.15bn
Council Tax Reduction £1.99bn £2.03bn £2.08bn £2.13bn £2.18bn £2.23bn £2.29bn
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related) £2.12bn £2.18bn £2.23bn £2.28bn £2.33bn £2.39bn £2.45bn
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based) £5.22bn £5.36bn £5.49bn £5.62bn £5.76bn £5.90bn £6.04bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based) £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based) £0.29bn £0.30bn £0.30bn £0.31bn £0.32bn £0.33bn £0.33bn
Income Support £0.12bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Working Tax Credit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Child Tax Credit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Incapacity Benefit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Personal Independence Payment £27.05bn £28.19bn £28.94bn £29.64bn £30.37bn £31.11bn £31.87bn
Disability Living Allowance £7.52bn £7.83bn £8.04bn £8.24bn £8.44bn £8.65bn £8.86bn
Attendance Allowance £8.71bn £9.08bn £9.32bn £9.55bn £9.78bn £10.02bn £10.26bn
Carer's Allowance £4.50bn £4.69bn £4.81bn £4.93bn £5.05bn £5.17bn £5.29bn
Carer Support Payment (Scotland) £0.31bn £0.32bn £0.33bn £0.34bn £0.35bn £0.36bn £0.36bn
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland) £0.00bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn
Severe Disablement Allowance £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit £0.51bn £0.52bn £0.53bn £0.54bn £0.56bn £0.57bn £0.59bn
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme £0.61bn £0.62bn £0.64bn £0.65bn £0.67bn £0.69bn £0.70bn
War Widow's or Widower's Pension £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Child Benefit £16.23bn £16.91bn £17.32bn £17.73bn £18.16bn £18.60bn £19.04bn
Scottish Child Payment £0.50bn £0.52bn £0.53bn £0.55bn £0.56bn £0.57bn £0.58bn
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual) £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Healthy Start vouchers £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn
Maternity Allowance £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Statutory Maternity Pay £3.32bn £3.41bn £3.49bn £3.57bn £3.66bn £3.75bn £3.84bn
Statutory Paternity Pay £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Statutory Sick Pay £1.13bn £1.16bn £1.19bn £1.22bn £1.25bn £1.28bn £1.31bn
Sure Start Maternity Grant £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn
Bereavement Support Payment £0.67bn £0.69bn £0.70bn £0.72bn £0.74bn £0.76bn £0.78bn
Tax-Free Childcare £0.55bn £0.56bn £0.57bn £0.58bn £0.60bn £0.61bn £0.59bn
Extended childcare entitlement £2.69bn £3.18bn £3.26bn £3.33bn £3.42bn £3.51bn £3.60bn
Universal childcare entitlement £2.26bn £2.45bn £2.51bn £2.58bn £2.64bn £2.72bn £2.78bn
Targeted childcare entitlement £0.57bn £0.60bn £0.62bn £0.63bn £0.65bn £0.66bn £0.67bn
Care to Learn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Childcare Grant £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Parents' Learning Allowance £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn
Adult Dependants' Grant £0.06bn £0.06bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn
Travel Grant £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
NHS spending £204.68bn £205.46bn £206.22bn £207.04bn £207.96bn £208.89bn £209.79bn
State education spending £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn
Transport subsidy spending £25.15bn £25.25bn £25.34bn £25.44bn £25.55bn £25.67bn £25.78bn
Cost-of-living support payment £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Energy Bills Rebate £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Basic income £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Disability basic income £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Other public spending budget change £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Caseloads: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
State Pension 11,308k 11,208k 10,906k 10,812k 10,860k 10,908k 10,955k
Pension Credit 1,491k 1,489k 1,478k 1,459k 1,459k 1,457k 1,453k
Winter Fuel Payment 7,091k 7,011k 6,601k 6,517k 6,493k 6,381k 6,254k
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland) 806k 807k 807k 805k 809k 812k 816k
Universal Credit 6,361k 6,370k 6,402k 6,412k 6,386k 6,378k 6,363k
Housing Benefit 1,254k 1,252k 1,254k 1,240k 1,245k 1,247k 1,249k
Council Tax Reduction 3,186k 3,211k 3,224k 3,245k 3,264k 3,280k 3,293k
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related) 187k 188k 188k 189k 190k 190k 191k
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based) 722k 724k 727k 730k 733k 737k 740k
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based) 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based) 67k 67k 68k 68k 68k 69k 69k
Income Support 25k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Working Tax Credit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Child Tax Credit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Incapacity Benefit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Personal Independence Payment 3,581k 3,595k 3,608k 3,623k 3,639k 3,655k 3,671k
Disability Living Allowance 1,296k 1,301k 1,306k 1,311k 1,317k 1,323k 1,329k
Attendance Allowance 1,701k 1,708k 1,714k 1,721k 1,729k 1,736k 1,744k
Carer's Allowance 1,038k 1,042k 1,046k 1,050k 1,055k 1,059k 1,064k
Carer Support Payment (Scotland) 71k 72k 72k 72k 73k 73k 73k
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland) 0k 72k 72k 72k 73k 73k 73k
Severe Disablement Allowance 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit 137k 138k 139k 139k 140k 140k 141k
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme 94k 94k 94k 95k 95k 95k 96k
War Widow's or Widower's Pension 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Child Benefit 8,136k 8,165k 8,185k 8,215k 8,249k 8,282k 8,314k
Scottish Child Payment 352k 354k 355k 356k 357k 358k 357k
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual) 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Healthy Start vouchers 200k 201k 202k 203k 204k 204k 205k
Maternity Allowance 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Statutory Maternity Pay 334k 335k 336k 338k 339k 341k 342k
Statutory Paternity Pay 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Statutory Sick Pay 182k 183k 183k 184k 185k 186k 186k
Sure Start Maternity Grant 26k 26k 26k 27k 27k 27k 27k
Bereavement Support Payment 98k 98k 99k 99k 100k 100k 101k
Tax-Free Childcare 1,018k 1,029k 1,029k 1,033k 1,035k 1,039k 1,024k
Extended childcare entitlement 718k 724k 728k 732k 737k 741k 743k
Universal childcare entitlement 986k 989k 992k 997k 1,002k 1,013k 1,015k
Targeted childcare entitlement 119k 120k 120k 121k 121k 122k 121k
Care to Learn 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Childcare Grant 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Parents' Learning Allowance 98k 99k 99k 100k 100k 100k 101k
Adult Dependants' Grant 18k 18k 12k 13k 13k 13k 13k
Travel Grant 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Cost-of-living support payment 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Energy Bills Rebate 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Basic income 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Disability basic income 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Government balance, each component counted once: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Government receipts, each component once £899.38bn £939.24bn £976.18bn £1,009.38bn £1,045.66bn £1,082.60bn £1,123.48bn
Government spending £531.94bn † £546.98bn † £553.05bn † £560.03bn † £568.60bn † £577.76bn † £586.86bn †
Government balance, each receipt once £367.45bn † £392.26bn † £423.13bn † £449.35bn † £477.06bn † £504.85bn † £536.62bn †
Benefits in household_benefits but not in gov_spending £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Model totals: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
gov_tax £899.38bn £939.24bn £976.18bn £1,009.38bn £1,045.66bn £1,082.60bn £1,123.48bn
household_tax £493.03bn £519.53bn £545.32bn £567.51bn £589.72bn £614.17bn £640.87bn
pre_budget_change_household_tax £485.21bn £511.41bn £536.97bn £558.47bn £580.44bn £604.62bn £630.98bn
gov_spending £531.94bn † £546.98bn † £553.05bn † £560.03bn † £568.60bn † £577.76bn † £586.86bn †
household_benefits £531.94bn † £546.98bn † £553.05bn † £560.03bn † £568.60bn † £577.76bn † £586.86bn †
gov_balance £367.45bn † £392.26bn † £423.13bn † £449.35bn † £477.06bn † £504.85bn † £536.62bn †
Household income totals: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Household market income £1,657.06bn £1,719.25bn £1,771.68bn £1,821.99bn £1,872.88bn £1,930.99bn £2,001.98bn
Household net income £1,656.69bn † £1,705.94bn † £1,737.53bn † £1,771.57bn † £1,807.68bn † £1,849.24bn † £1,900.92bn †
Household net income (HBAI definition) £1,463.15bn £1,510.70bn £1,542.73bn £1,575.67bn £1,609.74bn £1,648.74bn £1,699.14bn
Population: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
People 69,514k 69,778k 70,036k 70,316k 70,626k 70,944k 71,249k
Benefit units 35,247k 35,381k 35,512k 35,654k 35,811k 35,972k 36,127k
Households 31,167k 31,285k 31,401k 31,526k 31,665k 31,808k 31,944k
Poverty rates: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone 16.2% 15.2% 15.7% 15.8% 15.9% 16.0% 15.9%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children 24.6% 21.4% 22.0% 21.9% 22.1% 22.3% 22.2%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 13.9% 13.5% 14.1% 14.2% 14.3% 14.4% 14.4%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 13.7% 13.2% 13.3% 13.5% 13.6% 13.7% 13.7%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone 21.5% 20.8% 21.5% 21.8% 22.2% 22.4% 22.5%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children 33.4% 30.9% 31.6% 31.8% 32.4% 32.9% 33.2%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 19.8% 19.6% 20.4% 20.6% 20.9% 21.2% 21.2%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 12.8% 12.6% 12.6% 13.1% 13.4% 13.4% 13.4%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone 17.2% 16.5% 16.6% 16.6% 16.4% 16.5% 16.7%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children 26.4% 23.7% 23.7% 23.6% 23.2% 23.3% 23.5%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 14.6% 14.4% 14.7% 14.8% 14.7% 14.8% 14.9%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 15.0% 14.8% 14.4% 14.3% 14.0% 14.0% 14.4%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone 21.7% 21.1% 21.4% 21.4% 21.5% 21.6% 22.0%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children 33.5% 31.3% 31.4% 31.3% 31.3% 31.5% 32.1%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 19.9% 19.8% 20.2% 20.4% 20.5% 20.6% 20.9%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 13.0% 12.7% 12.6% 12.3% 12.2% 12.2% 12.9%
People in poverty: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone 11,270k 10,578k 10,975k 11,077k 11,210k 11,339k 11,354k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children 3,696k 3,227k 3,332k 3,325k 3,371k 3,407k 3,408k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 5,940k 5,792k 6,115k 6,209k 6,281k 6,360k 6,367k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 1,634k 1,559k 1,527k 1,543k 1,558k 1,572k 1,579k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone 14,972k 14,539k 15,080k 15,313k 15,657k 15,918k 16,049k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children 5,005k 4,656k 4,776k 4,818k 4,933k 5,035k 5,098k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 8,445k 8,399k 8,848k 9,001k 9,191k 9,342k 9,400k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 1,521k 1,484k 1,456k 1,493k 1,533k 1,541k 1,551k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone 11,980k 11,485k 11,639k 11,698k 11,596k 11,730k 11,890k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children 3,967k 3,570k 3,578k 3,587k 3,531k 3,566k 3,616k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 6,227k 6,161k 6,401k 6,485k 6,468k 6,552k 6,616k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 1,785k 1,754k 1,660k 1,627k 1,597k 1,611k 1,659k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone 15,057k 14,705k 14,981k 15,071k 15,191k 15,336k 15,683k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children 5,024k 4,718k 4,751k 4,755k 4,774k 4,816k 4,937k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 8,480k 8,486k 8,784k 8,917k 9,017k 9,112k 9,256k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 1,552k 1,501k 1,445k 1,399k 1,399k 1,408k 1,491k
Inequality: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Gini coefficient, equivalised HBAI income before housing costs 0.3087 0.3060 0.3074 0.3080 0.3085 0.3091 0.3102
Mean household net income in each side's own deciles: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household £17,832 † £18,015 † £17,980 † £18,037 † £18,364 † £18,545 † £18,723 †
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household £28,135 † £29,092 † £28,744 † £29,163 † £29,434 † £29,997 † £30,442 †
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household £34,455 † £35,681 † £36,229 † £36,632 † £36,967 † £37,482 † £38,380 †
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household £39,398 † £41,043 † £41,970 † £42,713 † £43,280 † £44,024 † £44,550 †
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household £43,698 † £45,019 † £45,872 † £46,588 † £47,624 † £48,569 † £49,772 †
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household £48,494 † £49,775 † £50,932 † £51,700 † £52,150 † £53,469 † £54,371 †
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household £56,360 † £57,552 † £58,380 † £59,120 † £60,160 † £60,882 † £62,979 †
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household £68,817 † £70,403 † £71,732 † £72,842 † £74,422 † £75,795 † £77,575 †
Decile 9: mean household_net_income per household £79,735 † £82,088 † £83,280 † £84,576 † £86,144 † £87,656 † £90,725 †
Decile 10: mean household_net_income per household £117,772 † £120,640 † £122,567 † £124,692 † £126,940 † £129,209 † £132,023 †
Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance): head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp £6.22bn £6.50bn £6.70bn £6.90bn £7.11bn £7.34bn £7.62bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp £3.54bn £3.82bn £4.05bn £4.27bn £4.49bn £4.76bn £4.96bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year £-3.83bn £-3.96bn £-4.03bn £-4.10bn £-4.19bn £-4.30bn £-2.02bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child £-2.00bn £-1.76bn £-1.64bn £-1.54bn £-1.44bn £-1.34bn £-1.24bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20% £-20.49bn £-21.05bn £-21.40bn £-21.83bn £-21.91bn £-22.28bn £-22.73bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10% £11.07bn £11.51bn £11.84bn £12.14bn £12.48bn £12.82bn £13.29bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp £25.01bn £25.68bn £26.29bn £26.92bn £27.58bn £28.26bn £28.95bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp £2.83bn £3.07bn £3.27bn £3.47bn £3.67bn £3.91bn £4.23bn
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10% £-3.03bn £-3.16bn £-3.24bn £-3.32bn £-3.37bn £-3.42bn £-3.46bn
Raise the State Pension by 10% £-7.81bn £-8.07bn £-7.99bn £-8.11bn £-8.36bn £-8.66bn £-9.02bn
Standard reforms: change in each reform's target: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp: change in income_tax £6.36bn £6.65bn £6.86bn £7.07bn £7.28bn £7.52bn £7.80bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp: change in income_tax £3.55bn £3.83bn £4.06bn £4.28bn £4.50bn £4.77bn £4.97bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year: change in income_tax £-3.96bn £-4.10bn £-4.19bn £-4.26bn £-4.36bn £-4.47bn £-1.77bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child: change in child_benefit £2.34bn £2.15bn £2.03bn £1.92bn £1.82bn £1.71bn £1.59bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%: change in universal_credit £20.48bn £21.04bn £21.39bn £21.82bn £21.90bn £22.27bn £22.73bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%: change in national_insurance £11.33bn £11.79bn £12.13bn £12.44bn £12.78bn £13.13bn £13.62bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp: change in vat £25.01bn £25.68bn £26.29bn £26.92bn £27.58bn £28.26bn £28.95bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax £2.83bn £3.07bn £3.27bn £3.47bn £3.67bn £3.91bn £4.23bn
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%: change in universal_credit £3.03bn £3.16bn £3.24bn £3.32bn £3.37bn £3.43bn £3.47bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%: change in state_pension £10.72bn £11.23bn £11.37bn £11.62bn £12.08bn £12.54bn £13.07bn

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MaxGhenis marked this pull request as ready for review October 23, 2026 04:16
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MaxGhenis added this pull request to the merge queue Oct 23, 2026
Merged via the queue into main with commit 7706007 Oct 23, 2026
17 of 19 checks passed
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MaxGhenis deleted the fix-spp-income-tax branch October 23, 2026 17:24
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Merged by the UK hub (Claude session 8e19f9d5) at head df51910e2, through the merge queue with the head pinned.

MaxGhenis added a commit that referenced this pull request Oct 23, 2026
Brings in #2368, which adds statutory paternity pay to employment_benefits.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
MaxGhenis added a commit that referenced this pull request Oct 24, 2026
Resolves three conflicts with #2368, which taxes statutory paternity pay
and counts it as Housing Benefit earnings: both docstrings now name
paternity pay and the tax before the winter fuel payment charge, and the
net earnings tests keep #2368's two paternity pay cases and this branch's
charge case.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
MaxGhenis added a commit that referenced this pull request Oct 24, 2026
#2368 taxes statutory paternity pay, so it is in total income, and with
this branch's charge a pound of it can take total income over £35,000 and
raise income_tax by the whole winter fuel payment. The bound in
test_statutory_paternity_pay_income_tax_properties.py now reads
income_tax_before_winter_fuel_payment_charge, names the charge as an
intended cliff next to Marriage Allowance, and a new case checks the
cliff: £35,000 of pension and savings plus £1 raises income tax by
£200.20, 20p before the charge.

total_income_charged_to_tax no longer says the model does not tax
statutory paternity pay, and the changelog and the Pension Credit
statutory pay test's docstring now say that it does.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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Statutory paternity pay is not charged income tax

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