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Disregard allowable employment expenses in Universal Credit earnings - #2494

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MaxGhenis merged 2 commits into
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fix-1997-uc-employment-expenses
Oct 22, 2026
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MaxGhenis merged 2 commits into
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fix-1997-uc-employment-expenses

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@juaristi22

@juaristi22 juaristi22 commented Oct 18, 2026 •

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Refs #1997. This implements the employment-expenses part; payroll giving and any remaining work stay open.

UC employed earnings currently omit the existing employment_expenses input even though it reduces taxable employment income. Deduct that specific input before adding separately calculated trading earnings. In the natural 2024 single-claimant test, £6,000 earnings and £600 allowable expenses now produce £5,400 UC earnings and £330 more annual UC. Existing tax/NI and pension deductions, trade floors, statutory pay, MIF, claimant aggregation and supplied-output overrides are preserved.

The input represents expenses already allowed under ITEPA Part 5 Chapter 2, after the relevant-employment and combined-deduction restrictions in Chapter 1. Reimbursements qualify only to the extent included in employment earnings; callers must avoid duplicate costs. The input metadata and UC documentation explain this contract. No raw-cost admissibility engine or general salary cap is added. The disregard follows GB regulation 55(3)(a) and its NI counterpart; this validation does not certify every historical commencement or payment-timing case.

Nonzero employment expenses supplied by a dataset can change Universal Credit microsimulation results. The aggregate effect has not been quantified.

Reproducer: policyengine_uk/tests/test_uc_employment_expenses.py::test_allowable_expenses_increase_natural_final_uc_cash

Validation: 151 distinct relevant tests passed across implementation and targeted runs, with unchanged cases carried forward after a fixture correction. The prior captured-head CODE/POLICY review reported no findings or material gaps; its 74 tests overlap the implementation results and remain historical evidence. In the current review round, independent code/policy verification covers only the population disclosure and reference cleanup. The requested separate employed-earnings nil boundary remains open. The input accepts expenses already allowed under Part 5 Chapter 2; ITEPA section 329(4) excepts section 351 deductions from the ordinary limits in section 329(1) and (2), so section 329(1) alone does not establish a universal cap. This does not establish the correct UC treatment of every statutory exception or invalid raw-expense input, and this PR is not yet cleared on that boundary. Formatting, lint, structure/protected-payload checks, the trusted base fix-evidence checker and a notebook HTML build without execution passed. The historical implementation left all 807 then-existing parameter YAML files unchanged. The current change leaves all 811 parameter YAML files unchanged relative to main at 8b12bce. Historical implementation runs used Python 3.13/Core 3.32.27/microdf 1.2.1, which differed from the lock; the full suite, private data, population impacts and encoded parity were not tested. Hosted CI remains to be checked.

The notebook is also touched by #1837 and #1999 in different sections. Preserve those edits when coordinating landing; #1999's downstream earnings-measure work remains separate.

axiom: TheAxiomFoundation/rulespec-uk#387 queued

The statutory UC expense disregard needs a supported encoding/parity follow-up; no encoding result is claimed.

@juaristi22 juaristi22 self-assigned this Oct 18, 2026

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Fine once expenses can no longer push employed earnings below nil.

@juaristi22, the change follows UC Regs 2013 reg 55(3)(a), which disregards expenses allowed under ITEPA Part 5 Chapter 2. I hand-checked the main case. The 2024 single standard allowance is £4,721.40. Then 4,721.40 − 0.55 × 5,400 = £1,751.40, and the gain against the case with no expenses is 0.55 × 600 = £330.

  1. should: uc_individual_earned_income_before_mif.py:106-121. employed is not floored before it is added to self_employed, so expenses above employment income now reduce self-employed earnings. With 2025 inputs of £1,000 employment income, £3,000 employment_expenses and £10,000 self-employment income, taxable_employment_income is £0, but UC earned income is £8,000 instead of £10,000. ITEPA s.329(1) says a Part 5 deduction "may not exceed the earnings from which it is deductible", and taxable_employment_income already floors at nil. Cap the expenses at the employment earnings, or floor employed at nil before adding the trade figure.
  2. should: employment_expenses is not only a household-calculator input. policyengine-uk-data imputes it onto the FRS from the SPI (datasets/imputations/income.py:38, employment_expenses="EPB"). So this changes population UC results, not only the household cases in the tests. The PR body says population impacts were not tested. A one-line estimate in the PR, or a note in the changelog that microsimulation results move, would help whoever reviews the data release. Point 1 matters more here, because imputed values are not bound by s.329.
  3. nit: the UC reg 55(3)(a) reference reuses the same URL as the existing reg 55(4)/(5) entry. One entry titled "reg. 55(3)(a), (4) and (5)" would do.

What I checked

  • Read the full diff and issue #1997. Read reg 55 on legislation.gov.uk and ITEPA s.329.
  • policyengine-core test uc_employment_expenses.yaml: 2 passed. pytest test_uc_employment_expenses.py: 16 passed. All of tests/policy/baseline/finance/benefit/family/universal_credit: 484 passed.
  • Reverted the UC formula. The new YAML then fails 1 of 2, and the new pytest file fails 12 of 16.
  • Ran the over-deduction household above, on this head.
  • ruff check and ruff format --check on the changed Python files: clean.
  • Hosted CI on this head: all green.
  • Not checked: the notebook render, private-data impacts, and the NI regulations beyond the link.

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

@juaristi22
juaristi22 force-pushed the fix-1997-uc-employment-expenses branch from baa76bf to d08f26e Compare October 19, 2026 12:36
@juaristi22

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Added the dataset-dependent microsimulation disclosure to the notebook, changelog and PR description, and combined the duplicate GB regulation 55 citations. The input continues to require expenses already allowed under the relevant-employment limits and statutory exceptions. Formula behavior is unchanged: the requested separate employed-earnings nil boundary remains unresolved pending its intended rule/source.

This is a partial response to the review: the population disclosure and reference cleanup are addressed; boundary item 1 remains open. Historical test results are not evidence resolving that policy question.

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Aggregate impact on certified data: pass

Base 7726c1a176 against head 96fc50adc5, both on enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5 (policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1, sha256 056e80fd8e91), fiscal years 2025-26 to 2031-32. Each year is a full microsimulation run on each side.

Checks: 0 broken by this change, 1 failing on both sides, 0 fixed. Moves flagged for review: 0 (thresholds in report_spec.yaml; a flag does not fail the job).

Workflow run and full report

Notes

  • In the years a figure from fewer than 10 records is suppressed (spending.disabled_students_allowance), every total containing it, and the decile incomes, are rebuilt from their other components, so no published total includes it. Those totals are marked †. A change is withheld where the two sides leave out different figures and can't be lined up.

Moves flagged for review

None.

Spending by benefit and service

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed

Caseloads

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed

Household net income by decile

No household's net income changes in any year.

No change in any year: receipts by tax head; government balance, each component counted once; model totals; components the model counts twice; household income totals; population; poverty rates; people in poverty; inequality; mean household net income in each side's own deciles; standard reform costings (change in gov_balance); standard reforms: change in each reform's target.

Checks failing on both base and head (1)
  • VAT is never negative (sign:vat): 2025-26: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-54,797,972 in total; 2026-27: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-56,271,349 in total; 2027-28: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-57,609,146 in total
Counted-once check

Each of 84 components was raised by £1 per unit in 2026-27, and every head of its totals was read household by household: its own head must rise by exactly £1, no other tax head may move, no other benefit may rise, and the model's own total must move by what its heads moved. A head that breaks a rule is measured again twice: with every other head held at its baseline value, and with every other head held at its value after the first £1 while the component rises again. It fails where either still shows the response. 0 failed; 0 were skipped.

  • incapacity_benefit: pension_credit responds only through other heads in fewer than 10 households (other heads that moved there: carers_allowance; gov_spending; not a failure)
  • incapacity_benefit: pension_credit responds only through other heads in fewer than 10 households (other heads that moved there: carers_allowance; household_benefits; not a failure)
  • incapacity_benefit: universal_credit responds only through other heads in 72 households (other heads that moved there: carers_allowance, carer_support_payment; gov_spending; not a failure)
  • incapacity_benefit: universal_credit responds only through other heads in 72 households (other heads that moved there: carers_allowance, carer_support_payment; household_benefits; not a failure)
  • maternity_allowance: pension_credit responds only through other heads in fewer than 10 households (other heads that moved there: carers_allowance; gov_spending; not a failure)
  • maternity_allowance: pension_credit responds only through other heads in fewer than 10 households (other heads that moved there: carers_allowance; household_benefits; not a failure)
  • declared double count corporate_sdlt is still contained in expected_sdlt (coefficient 1.000; Corporate SDLT is counted twice in household and government tax totals #2159)
Provenance
Side Commit Runtime Environment hash Partition hash Time
base main 7726c1a176 uk 2.137.1 (files 8554ab6677bc), core 3.33.2, py 3.13.16 aarch64 d5d36741f03c 0d0426ee9e38 915.63s
head #2494 merged into main 96fc50adc5 uk 2.137.1 (files 6059e2bab461), core 3.33.2, py 3.13.16 aarch64 d5d36741f03c 0d0426ee9e38 944.41s

Dataset: hf://policyengine/policyengine-uk-data-private/enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5@2526edbbb687a3b54dbb11272e5389e4b62d2ac2, sha256 056e80fd8e9151d78f432a25cde863340baee81304c6216a37fb575ce8563784 (verified on both sides), policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1.

Receipts by tax head: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Income tax £298.30bn £318.11bn £335.36bn £350.32bn £365.75bn £383.77bn £402.05bn
National Insurance (employee and self-employed) £52.58bn £54.94bn £56.75bn £58.48bn £60.51bn £62.45bn £64.90bn
National Insurance (employer) £152.64bn £159.18bn £164.14bn £168.73bn £175.57bn £181.08bn £188.22bn
Employer NI change borne by capital £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Employer NI change borne by consumers £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Capital gains tax £12.62bn £13.06bn £13.55bn £14.04bn £14.54bn £15.09bn £15.65bn
Student loan repayments £7.83bn £8.12bn £8.35bn £8.56bn £8.79bn £9.04bn £9.38bn
VAT £253.71bn £260.53bn £266.72bn £273.14bn £279.83bn £286.71bn £293.71bn
Change in VAT from its baseline £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
VAT on private school fees £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Fuel duties £24.53bn £24.64bn £26.64bn £26.69bn £26.42bn £25.76bn £26.35bn
Alcohol duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Tobacco duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Vehicle excise duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
TV licence fee £4.28bn £4.43bn £4.44bn £4.46bn £4.49bn £4.51bn £4.53bn
Council tax £49.56bn £52.45bn £55.78bn £59.39bn £62.98bn £66.74bn £70.70bn
High value council tax surcharge £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.48bn £0.50bn £0.51bn £0.52bn
Northern Ireland domestic rates £0.55bn £0.58bn £0.61bn £0.63bn £0.67bn £0.70bn £0.73bn
Business rates £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn
Stamp duty land tax (own purchases, and corporate until the £10.26bn £10.84bn £11.32bn £11.80bn £12.29bn £12.83bn £13.42bn
Land transaction tax (Wales) £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.01bn £0.01bn
Land and buildings transaction tax (Scotland) £0.01bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn
Unspecified tax change borne by capital £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Unspecified tax change borne by consumers £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Wealth tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Wealth tax excluding the main residence £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Land value tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Carbon tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Spending by benefit and service: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
State Pension £122.50bn £127.12bn £128.28bn £130.21bn £134.05bn £138.02bn £142.08bn
Pension Credit £6.68bn £7.06bn £7.04bn £7.11bn £7.23bn £7.37bn £7.46bn
Winter Fuel Payment £1.70bn £1.68bn £1.59bn £1.57bn £1.57bn £1.55bn £1.52bn
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland) £0.19bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.21bn £0.21bn £0.22bn £0.22bn
Universal Credit £79.17bn £83.50bn £85.32bn £87.08bn £88.02bn £89.45bn £90.80bn
Housing Benefit £8.60bn £8.93bn £9.20bn £9.34bn £9.62bn £9.88bn £10.17bn
Council Tax Reduction £1.99bn £2.03bn £2.08bn £2.13bn £2.18bn £2.24bn £2.29bn
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related) £2.12bn £2.18bn £2.23bn £2.28bn £2.33bn £2.39bn £2.45bn
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based) £5.22bn £5.36bn £5.49bn £5.62bn £5.76bn £5.90bn £6.04bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based) £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based) £0.29bn £0.30bn £0.30bn £0.31bn £0.32bn £0.33bn £0.33bn
Income Support £0.12bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Working Tax Credit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Child Tax Credit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Incapacity Benefit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Personal Independence Payment £27.05bn £28.19bn £28.94bn £29.64bn £30.37bn £31.11bn £31.87bn
Disability Living Allowance £7.52bn £7.83bn £8.04bn £8.24bn £8.44bn £8.65bn £8.86bn
Attendance Allowance £8.71bn £9.08bn £9.32bn £9.55bn £9.78bn £10.02bn £10.26bn
Carer's Allowance £4.50bn £4.69bn £4.81bn £4.93bn £5.05bn £5.17bn £5.29bn
Carer Support Payment (Scotland) £0.35bn £0.37bn £0.38bn £0.39bn £0.40bn £0.41bn £0.41bn
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland) £0.00bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn
Severe Disablement Allowance £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit £0.51bn £0.52bn £0.53bn £0.54bn £0.56bn £0.57bn £0.59bn
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme £0.61bn £0.62bn £0.64bn £0.65bn £0.67bn £0.69bn £0.70bn
War Widow's or Widower's Pension £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Child Benefit £16.23bn £16.91bn £17.32bn £17.73bn £18.16bn £18.60bn £19.04bn
Scottish Child Payment £0.50bn £0.52bn £0.53bn £0.55bn £0.56bn £0.57bn £0.58bn
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual) £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Healthy Start vouchers £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn
Maternity Allowance £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Statutory Maternity Pay £3.32bn £3.41bn £3.49bn £3.57bn £3.66bn £3.75bn £3.84bn
Statutory Paternity Pay £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Statutory Sick Pay £1.13bn £1.16bn £1.19bn £1.22bn £1.25bn £1.28bn £1.31bn
Sure Start Maternity Grant £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn
Bereavement Support Payment £0.67bn £0.69bn £0.70bn £0.72bn £0.74bn £0.76bn £0.78bn
Tax-Free Childcare £0.55bn £0.56bn £0.57bn £0.58bn £0.60bn £0.61bn £0.59bn
Extended childcare entitlement £2.66bn £3.14bn £3.23bn £3.30bn £3.38bn £3.47bn £3.55bn
Universal childcare entitlement £3.32bn £3.59bn £3.69bn £3.78bn £3.88bn £3.99bn £4.08bn
Targeted childcare entitlement £0.57bn £0.60bn £0.62bn £0.63bn £0.65bn £0.66bn £0.67bn
Care to Learn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Childcare Grant £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Parents' Learning Allowance £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn
Adult Dependants' Grant £0.06bn £0.06bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn
Travel Grant £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
NHS spending £204.68bn £205.46bn £206.22bn £207.04bn £207.96bn £208.89bn £209.79bn
State education spending £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn
Transport subsidy spending £25.15bn £25.25bn £25.34bn £25.44bn £25.55bn £25.67bn £25.78bn
Cost-of-living support payment £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Energy Bills Rebate £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Basic income £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Disability basic income £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Other public spending budget change £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Caseloads: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
State Pension 11,308k 11,208k 10,906k 10,812k 10,860k 10,908k 10,955k
Pension Credit 1,491k 1,489k 1,477k 1,455k 1,457k 1,454k 1,451k
Winter Fuel Payment 7,091k 7,008k 6,593k 6,509k 6,491k 6,377k 6,242k
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland) 806k 807k 807k 805k 809k 812k 816k
Universal Credit 6,372k 6,379k 6,409k 6,420k 6,395k 6,387k 6,371k
Housing Benefit 1,254k 1,253k 1,254k 1,240k 1,245k 1,247k 1,249k
Council Tax Reduction 3,187k 3,212k 3,225k 3,247k 3,263k 3,282k 3,296k
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related) 187k 188k 188k 189k 190k 190k 191k
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based) 722k 724k 727k 730k 733k 737k 740k
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based) 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based) 67k 67k 68k 68k 68k 69k 69k
Income Support 25k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Working Tax Credit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Child Tax Credit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Incapacity Benefit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Personal Independence Payment 3,581k 3,595k 3,608k 3,623k 3,639k 3,655k 3,671k
Disability Living Allowance 1,296k 1,301k 1,306k 1,311k 1,317k 1,323k 1,329k
Attendance Allowance 1,701k 1,708k 1,714k 1,721k 1,729k 1,736k 1,744k
Carer's Allowance 1,038k 1,042k 1,046k 1,050k 1,055k 1,059k 1,064k
Carer Support Payment (Scotland) 81k 82k 82k 82k 83k 83k 83k
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland) 0k 82k 82k 82k 83k 83k 83k
Severe Disablement Allowance 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit 137k 138k 139k 139k 140k 140k 141k
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme 94k 94k 94k 95k 95k 95k 96k
War Widow's or Widower's Pension 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Child Benefit 8,136k 8,165k 8,185k 8,215k 8,249k 8,282k 8,314k
Scottish Child Payment 352k 354k 355k 356k 357k 358k 357k
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual) 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Healthy Start vouchers 200k 201k 202k 203k 204k 204k 205k
Maternity Allowance 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Statutory Maternity Pay 334k 335k 336k 338k 339k 341k 342k
Statutory Paternity Pay 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Statutory Sick Pay 182k 183k 183k 184k 185k 186k 186k
Sure Start Maternity Grant 26k 26k 26k 27k 27k 27k 27k
Bereavement Support Payment 98k 98k 99k 99k 100k 100k 101k
Tax-Free Childcare 1,017k 1,028k 1,028k 1,033k 1,034k 1,038k 1,023k
Extended childcare entitlement 665k 671k 675k 677k 682k 686k 687k
Universal childcare entitlement 986k 989k 992k 997k 1,002k 1,013k 1,015k
Targeted childcare entitlement 119k 120k 120k 121k 121k 122k 121k
Care to Learn 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Childcare Grant 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Parents' Learning Allowance 98k 99k 99k 100k 100k 100k 101k
Adult Dependants' Grant 18k 18k 12k 13k 13k 13k 13k
Travel Grant 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Cost-of-living support payment 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Energy Bills Rebate 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Basic income 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Disability basic income 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Government balance, each component counted once: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Government receipts, each component once £898.60bn £938.62bn £975.41bn £1,008.49bn £1,044.08bn £1,080.93bn £1,121.92bn
Government spending £537.00bn † £551.36bn † £557.71bn † £564.79bn † £573.36bn † £582.62bn † £591.80bn †
Government balance, each receipt once £361.60bn † £387.26bn † £417.70bn † £443.70bn † £470.73bn † £498.30bn † £530.12bn †
Benefits in household_benefits but not in gov_spending £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Model totals: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
gov_tax £901.73bn £941.75bn £978.54bn £1,011.62bn £1,047.21bn £1,084.06bn £1,125.05bn
household_tax £495.38bn £522.04bn £547.68bn £569.74bn £591.81bn £616.26bn £643.12bn
pre_budget_change_household_tax £487.56bn £513.92bn £539.33bn £560.70bn £582.53bn £606.72bn £633.22bn
gov_spending £537.00bn † £551.36bn † £557.71bn † £564.79bn † £573.36bn † £582.62bn † £591.80bn †
household_benefits £537.00bn † £551.36bn † £557.71bn † £564.79bn † £573.36bn † £582.62bn † £591.80bn †
gov_balance £364.73bn † £390.39bn † £420.83bn † £446.83bn † £473.86bn † £501.43bn † £533.25bn †
Components the model counts twice: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
corporate_sdlt, counted again inside expected_sdlt £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn
Household income totals: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Household market income £1,657.06bn £1,719.25bn £1,771.68bn £1,821.99bn £1,887.41bn £1,945.59bn £2,017.37bn
Household net income £1,659.41bn † £1,707.82bn † £1,739.83bn † £1,774.09bn † £1,810.35bn † £1,852.01bn † £1,903.61bn †
Household net income (HBAI definition) £1,468.17bn £1,514.88bn £1,547.36bn £1,580.55bn £1,614.82bn £1,654.01bn £1,704.49bn
Population: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
People 69,514k 69,778k 70,036k 70,316k 70,626k 70,944k 71,249k
Benefit units 35,247k 35,381k 35,512k 35,654k 35,811k 35,972k 36,127k
Households 31,167k 31,285k 31,401k 31,526k 31,665k 31,808k 31,944k
Poverty rates: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone 15.9% 14.9% 15.5% 15.6% 15.7% 15.8% 15.7%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children 23.7% 20.9% 21.6% 21.4% 21.6% 21.8% 21.7%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 13.8% 13.4% 14.0% 14.1% 14.2% 14.3% 14.3%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 13.6% 13.1% 13.2% 13.4% 13.5% 13.6% 13.5%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone 20.9% 20.4% 21.0% 21.2% 21.4% 21.7% 21.8%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children 31.8% 30.0% 30.7% 31.0% 31.2% 31.6% 31.8%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 19.4% 19.2% 20.0% 20.2% 20.5% 20.7% 20.8%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 12.5% 12.2% 12.0% 12.2% 12.2% 12.3% 12.3%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone 17.0% 16.4% 16.5% 16.6% 16.8% 16.8% 16.9%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children 25.7% 23.5% 23.3% 23.2% 23.4% 23.5% 23.7%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 14.5% 14.4% 14.7% 14.8% 15.1% 15.1% 15.2%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 14.8% 14.9% 14.4% 14.4% 14.3% 14.4% 14.6%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone 21.5% 21.1% 21.3% 21.4% 21.5% 21.6% 21.8%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children 32.6% 31.3% 31.1% 31.1% 31.4% 31.4% 31.8%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 19.8% 19.8% 20.2% 20.3% 20.5% 20.7% 20.8%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 13.3% 12.8% 12.6% 12.7% 12.3% 12.2% 12.3%
People in poverty: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone 11,050k 10,426k 10,847k 10,945k 11,075k 11,205k 11,215k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children 3,559k 3,140k 3,260k 3,252k 3,297k 3,333k 3,333k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 5,864k 5,737k 6,070k 6,164k 6,236k 6,314k 6,319k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 1,627k 1,549k 1,517k 1,528k 1,542k 1,558k 1,563k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone 14,536k 14,210k 14,688k 14,922k 15,145k 15,380k 15,517k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children 4,765k 4,513k 4,641k 4,697k 4,753k 4,831k 4,894k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 8,275k 8,251k 8,665k 8,836k 8,991k 9,138k 9,200k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 1,496k 1,445k 1,382k 1,389k 1,401k 1,411k 1,423k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone 11,807k 11,456k 11,570k 11,652k 11,832k 11,919k 12,065k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children 3,863k 3,538k 3,520k 3,528k 3,567k 3,592k 3,642k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 6,178k 6,160k 6,389k 6,483k 6,623k 6,674k 6,741k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 1,767k 1,758k 1,661k 1,642k 1,642k 1,653k 1,682k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone 14,918k 14,717k 14,897k 15,056k 15,215k 15,345k 15,518k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children 4,886k 4,714k 4,695k 4,721k 4,789k 4,814k 4,894k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 8,442k 8,497k 8,756k 8,884k 9,018k 9,123k 9,201k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 1,590k 1,507k 1,446k 1,451k 1,408k 1,408k 1,423k
Inequality: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Gini coefficient, equivalised HBAI income before housing costs 0.3076 0.3053 0.3067 0.3074 0.3079 0.3086 0.3096
Mean household net income in each side's own deciles: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household £17,703 † £17,992 † £17,936 † £18,011 † £18,318 † £18,513 † £18,674 †
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household £28,348 † £29,017 † £28,655 † £28,970 † £29,308 † £29,678 † £30,275 †
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household £34,599 † £35,849 † £36,522 † £37,006 † £37,361 † £38,078 † £38,727 †
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household £39,341 † £40,988 † £41,881 † £42,614 † £43,169 † £43,763 † £44,893 †
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household £44,542 † £46,026 † £46,958 † £47,586 † £48,343 † £49,291 † £49,916 †
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household £48,357 † £49,456 † £50,387 † £51,215 † £52,336 † £53,141 † £54,599 †
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household £56,416 † £57,582 † £58,485 † £59,450 † £60,073 † £61,473 † £63,079 †
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household £69,296 † £70,502 † £71,718 † £73,044 † £74,365 † £75,837 † £77,619 †
Decile 9: mean household_net_income per household £79,710 † £82,067 † £83,315 † £84,464 † £86,264 † £87,817 † £90,044 †
Decile 10: mean household_net_income per household £117,836 † £120,656 † £122,579 † £124,731 † £127,216 † £129,852 † £132,997 †
Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance): head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp £6.22bn £6.50bn £6.71bn £6.90bn £7.11bn £7.35bn £7.62bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp £3.54bn £3.82bn £4.05bn £4.27bn £4.49bn £4.76bn £4.96bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year £-3.84bn £-3.98bn £-4.06bn £-4.11bn £-4.20bn £-4.32bn £-2.04bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child £-2.00bn £-1.76bn £-1.64bn £-1.54bn £-1.44bn £-1.34bn £-1.24bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20% £-20.54bn £-21.10bn £-21.45bn £-21.88bn £-21.96bn £-22.33bn £-22.81bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10% £11.06bn £11.51bn £11.83bn £12.14bn £12.46bn £12.80bn £13.27bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp £25.01bn £25.68bn £26.29bn £26.92bn £27.58bn £28.26bn £28.95bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp £2.83bn £3.07bn £3.26bn £3.46bn £3.66bn £3.89bn £4.21bn
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10% £-3.04bn £-3.17bn £-3.25bn £-3.32bn £-3.37bn £-3.43bn £-3.47bn
Raise the State Pension by 10% £-8.93bn £-9.14bn £-9.06bn £-9.12bn £-9.31bn £-9.55bn £-9.82bn
Standard reforms: change in each reform's target: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp: change in income_tax £6.36bn £6.65bn £6.87bn £7.07bn £7.29bn £7.53bn £7.81bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp: change in income_tax £3.54bn £3.83bn £4.06bn £4.28bn £4.50bn £4.77bn £4.97bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year: change in income_tax £-3.97bn £-4.12bn £-4.22bn £-4.27bn £-4.36bn £-4.48bn £-1.79bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child: change in child_benefit £2.34bn £2.15bn £2.03bn £1.92bn £1.82bn £1.71bn £1.59bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%: change in universal_credit £20.53bn £21.09bn £21.44bn £21.87bn £21.95bn £22.32bn £22.80bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%: change in national_insurance £11.33bn £11.79bn £12.13bn £12.44bn £12.77bn £13.12bn £13.61bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp: change in vat £25.01bn £25.68bn £26.29bn £26.92bn £27.58bn £28.26bn £28.95bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax £2.83bn £3.07bn £3.26bn £3.46bn £3.66bn £3.89bn £4.21bn
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%: change in universal_credit £3.04bn £3.17bn £3.25bn £3.32bn £3.38bn £3.43bn £3.48bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%: change in state_pension £12.25bn £12.71bn £12.83bn £13.02bn £13.41bn £13.80bn £14.21bn

@vahid-ahmadi vahid-ahmadi left a comment

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@juaristi22 round 2, at d08f26ed4. The branch was rebased onto 8b12bce. The first commit carries no changes (git range-diff shows it as identical), so I reviewed the new commit against round 1.

Verdict: items 2 and 3 are fixed. Item 1 is still open, as your reply says, and the axiom: line needs changing, so this isn't ready to approve yet.

Round-1 points

  1. should: expenses can push employed earnings below nil: not fixed. Your reply says this waits for the intended rule or source. That source is ITEPA s.329(1), which I cited in round 1: "The amount of a deduction allowed under this Part may not exceed the earnings from which it is deductible." So expenses allowed under Chapter 2 can never exceed the employment earnings. Reg 55(3)(a) disregards those allowed expenses from employed earnings, so they can't reduce trade earnings either. The model already applies this cap on the tax side, because taxable_employment_income floors at nil. I re-ran the round-1 household on this head (2025: £1,000 employment income, £10,000 self-employment income):

    employment_expenses taxable_employment_income uc_individual_earned_income_before_mif
    £0 £1,000 £11,000
    £1,000 £0 £10,000
    £3,000 £0 £8,000

    The last row should be £10,000. The input contract says callers should supply only allowed amounts, but the formula doesn't enforce that, and the same input gives different results for tax and for UC. taxable_employment_income nets employment_deductions (which is employment_expenses) against employment_income plus employment_benefits (SSP and SMP) and floors at nil. To match it, uc_individual_earned_income_before_mif.py:102-106 could deduct min_(person("employment_expenses", period), person("employment_income", period) + person("employment_benefits", period)), with one YAML case like the table above.

    After item 2, my round-1 point about imputed data no longer applies on the current dataset. This point now rests on s.329 and on tax and UC agreeing for calculator inputs.

  2. should: population effect: fixed, and my premise was wrong. The changelog, notebook and body now say dataset values can change UC results. The aggregate-impact check on certified data (enhanced FRS 2024-25, policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1) then reported no change at all: no household net income moves in any year, and no benefit total moves either. So my round-1 claim that this "changes population UC results" does not hold for the current certified dataset, even though uk-data's SPI imputation code still maps employment_expenses. Your wording ("can change", "not quantified") is still accurate. You could replace "not quantified" with "no change on the current certified dataset" and link the report. That's optional.

  3. nit: duplicate reg 55 reference: fixed. It is now one entry, "reg. 55(3)(a), (4) and (5)".

New findings

  1. should: PR body Axiom: needed. PolicyEngine/.github CONTRIBUTING.md ("Mirror policy changes in Axiom") keeps axiom: needed for external contributors. As a maintainer you need encoded-correct, encoded, queued or n/a. TheAxiomFoundation/rulespec-uk#387 ("Encode UC Regs 2013 reg 55 and 57 earnings deductions per person", pe-parity, open) already covers reg 55, and it records the corpus blocker (reg 55 is not yet in the pinned release). So axiom: TheAxiomFoundation/rulespec-uk#387 queued should fit. Add a comment there with the 55(3)(a) expense disregard and a companion test, such as the £6,000 / £600 / £330 case. I missed this in round 1, sorry.

What I checked

  • Read the fix commit, your reply, the updated changelog, notebook cell and PR body.
  • Fresh worktree and uv venv at the head. policyengine-core test tests/policy/baseline/finance/benefit/family/universal_credit: 484 passed.
  • On a local merge of this head into current main (410bf54d7): the same 484 pass, and test_uc_employment_expenses.py plus test_parameter_descriptions.py give 40 passed. The merge with main is clean.
  • Re-ran the item 1 household on the merged tree. The household is synthetic.
  • CI at the head: all 16 checks pass. I read the aggregate-impact comment for item 2.
  • Not checked: the rendered notebook, private data, or #1837 and #1999, which touch other sections of the same notebook.

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@juaristi22

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Addressed review item4: the PR now records axiom: TheAxiomFoundation/rulespec-uk#387 queued, with the reg.55(3)(a) source quote and ordinary allowed-expense companion case in TheAxiomFoundation/rulespec-uk#387 (comment). The corpus/signed-encoder blocker remains; no encoder run or parity completion is claimed.

Review item1 remains OPEN while we resolve the Chapter2 input scope and statutory exceptions. The policy formula and tests are unchanged; this process update does not claim overall approval.

@juaristi22

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The existing input requires expenses already allowed under Part 5 Chapter 2 after the applicable limits; it does not validate raw work costs. ITEPA section 329(1) supplies the ordinary limit, but section 329(4) expressly excepts section 351 deductions from subsections (1) and (2). UC regulation 55(3)(a) refers to allowed Chapter 2 expenses. That prevents inferring a universal cap from section 329(1) alone. It does not establish that negative employed earnings or reductions of trade earnings are correct in every case.

I have clarified this boundary in the description without changing the formula or expanding the input contract. Item 1 remains open for an exception-aware resolution; no new numerical validation or overall approval is claimed.

Item 4 was already delivered on 19 October: the existing expense-disregard handoff and this PR's queued disposition remain in place. The underlying encoding/parity debt stays open; no duplicate handoff or encoder run is proposed.

@MaxGhenis
MaxGhenis added this pull request to the merge queue Oct 21, 2026
Merged via the queue into main with commit 6ac87fb Oct 22, 2026
18 of 19 checks passed
@MaxGhenis
MaxGhenis deleted the fix-1997-uc-employment-expenses branch October 22, 2026 02:46
@MaxGhenis

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Merged by the UK hub (session local_8e19f9d5, Opus 5.5) on Max's explicit instruction to merge the team's ready PRs before the Budget (21 October, about 23:00Z: "go ahead and merge them. none of us has time to wait on each other"). One merge-queue enqueue, pinned to head d08f26ed4a36fd8836a8c1fb25387854aded9e7d.

  • Gates at this head: every check passes; GitHub reports MERGEABLE; not a draft; juaristi22, review decision . The merge queue re-tests against current main.
  • Review: no independent agent review was run at this head before merging, on Max's instruction. Any finding after merge goes to a follow-up PR.
  • Budget: the Budget runs on a locked pe-uk release (microcosm#1333). This change reaches Budget-day numbers only if the lock moves to a release that contains it.

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3 participants