[juaristi22]

Fixes #2283.

When Universal Credit health-component rebalancing is inactive, anchor the 2026-27 amount to the 2025-26 LCWRA rate (£423.27) increased by September 2025 CPI (3.8%) and rounded to monthly pennies (£439.35; £5,272.20 annually). From 2027-28 use benefit-index growth from that fixed 2026 anchor. This is an explicit CPI-only counterfactual convention: SSAA 1992 s.150 leaves UC uprating and rounding discretionary, so £439.35 is neither an enacted LCWRA rate nor uniquely mandated by law. Keep the inactive award as calculated output so a later public Scenario.apply amount reform refreshes both the health element and final Universal Credit. Active claimant cohorts, explicit parameter reforms, directly supplied awards and the existing 2026 standard-allowance qualification retain their contracts. This is an inactive health-component counterfactual, not a whole-Act or parity certificate.

The internal LCWRA amount wrapper now preserves the delegated formula's origin. The benefit-cap exemption keeps the model's claimant filter while supplied element entries and deliberate external formulas retain their existing treatment.

Reproducer: policyengine_uk/tests/test_uc_rebalancing.py::test_inactive_2026_uses_penny_rounded_september_cpi_anchor; policyengine_uk/tests/test_uc_rebalancing.py::test_inactive_cached_awards_follow_public_late_amount_reform; policyengine_uk/tests/test_benefit_cap_specified_benefits_properties.py::test_internal_lcwra_wrapper_keeps_the_model_claimant_filter

The public-lifecycle regression primes both award caches before applying £300/month. Its expected annual element is £3,600 and final UC is £8,698.80 (£424.90 standard allowance plus £300, each multiplied by twelve). It failed numerically before the cache repair.

Historical validation on public head 2ae29597 passed 133 unique Python tests and 490 UC programme cases. Candidate ffa476e6 passed 32 rebalancing tests and 20 deterministic C2 controls; its anchor regression first failed at £5,251.94 instead of £5,272.20. Those results remain attributed to their captured heads. Earlier full-property and broader health/control commands reached their 180-second bounds and remain INCOMPLETE, with no dot-based test credit. The separate c281 combined 52-case run also remains INCOMPLETE; its three narrow cash controls passed separately.

The prior ordinary integration with captured main 5f4b81c4 retains incoming main's UC deduction, applied-cap and protected-floor allocation code unchanged. It passed 40 targeted Python cases (five cash/cache cases, 23 incoming deduction cases and 12 claimant/supplied-input controls), then the full UC programme directory once: 491 cases, comprising 490 YAML cases and one additional Python case. These are 41 unique Python cases and 490 YAML cases on the integrated state, without adding overlapping historical runs. The new natural-claimant tests use an explicit 15% deduction-rate input: £5,272.20 LCWRA plus £5,098.80 standard allowance, less £764.82 debt deductions, gives £9,606.18 UC. The same result holds with the modeled 85% protected floor. After priming both caches, a public £300/month LCWRA reform gives £7,933.98 UC while deductions remain £764.82. LCWRA entitlement naturally exempts the claimant from the benefit cap; no intermediate award or cap reduction is supplied to force the result.

The identical new fixture failed numerically on untouched captured main at annual LCWRA £2,607.12 instead of the declared counterfactual £5,272.20, then passed after integrating the existing feature. This does not claim main's enacted £217.26 monthly rate is wrong. Required and applicable hosted CI, including published current-head Test / Result, Docs and latest post-body Fix evidence, remain later gates. The full benefit-cap property file has no current full-file PASS claim; the earlier local HTML build failed before completion on a DNS-dependent theme lookup, with no current HTML-build certificate.

The new origin-only tests discard an earlier model-owned award and assert the formula's result and origin before and after wrapping. Two separate default-active 2026 external nil-formula cases retain a cached model-owned award on main 47642d1 as well. The public constructor and late-apply behavior in those cases remains outside this provenance repair.

axiom: TheAxiomFoundation/rulespec-uk#367 queued

The underlying encoding and parity obligation remains OPEN and unverified. No billed run has been approved or invoked, and no parity is claimed.

The inactive scenario covers 2026-27 through 2032-33; from 2033-34 it falls back to the underlying parameter path. This does not provide a continuous long-run Act-off projection. If #1989 lands first or later, the delegated formula and benefit-cap tests need the stated composition check; no foreign branch is repaired here.

The new integration uses the actual merged #1819 deduction/floor pipeline and #2522 aggregate-report base correction, preserving both dependency changes rather than treating them as #1989 or #2493. The scoped RuleSpec handoff is already recorded; no duplicate source comment, encoding or parity claim is part of this integration.

This candidate additionally integrates captured main 78f480f2 through an ordinary merge, preserving incoming main outside the six feature paths and retaining every feature production and test blob from 9cb4395f. On this combined state, the five selected natural cash, public-late-amount, claimant and supplied-input tests passed 17 parameterized Python cases. The affected UC programme passed 490 YAML programme checks and one Python case. Sixteen incoming scenario-baseline controls passed and one dataset-dependent control was skipped for missing configured dataset/credential and remains NOTRUN, giving 34 unique Python cases across these current commands, with no duplicate or historical test credit. Core reports blank YAML case names, so the 490 checks are not presented as 490 unique named fixtures. Required/applicable hosted CI and independent incremental review remain later gates; this is a captured-main local result.

[github-actions]

Aggregate impact on certified data: pass

Base 60b09a4e59 against head 178ce1cabe, both on enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5 (policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1, sha256 056e80fd8e91), fiscal years 2025-26 to 2031-32. Each year is a full microsimulation run on each side.

Checks: 0 broken by this change, 1 failing on both sides, 0 fixed. Moves flagged for review: 0 (thresholds in report_spec.yaml; a flag does not fail the job).

Workflow run and full report

Notes

• In the years a figure from fewer than 10 records is suppressed (spending.disabled_students_allowance), every total containing it, and the decile incomes, are rebuilt from their other components, so no published total includes it. Those totals are marked †. A change is withheld where the two sides leave out different figures and can't be lined up.

Moves flagged for review

None.

Spending by benefit and service

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed

Caseloads

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed

Household net income by decile

No household's net income changes in any year.

No change in any year: receipts by tax head; government balance, each component counted once; model totals; components the model counts twice; household income totals; population; poverty rates; people in poverty; inequality; mean household net income in each side's own deciles; standard reform costings (change in gov_balance); standard reforms: change in each reform's target.

Checks failing on both base and head (1)

• VAT is never negative (sign:vat): 2025-26: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-54,797,972 in total; 2026-27: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-56,271,349 in total; 2027-28: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-57,609,146 in total

Counted-once check

Each of 84 components was raised by £1 per unit in 2026-27, and every head of its totals was read household by household: its own head must rise by exactly £1, no other tax head may move, no other benefit may rise, and the model's own total must move by what its heads moved. A head that breaks a rule is measured again twice: with every other head held at its baseline value, and with every other head held at its value after the first £1 while the component rises again. It fails where either still shows the response. 0 failed; 0 were skipped.

• declared double count corporate_sdlt is still contained in expected_sdlt (coefficient 1.000; Corporate SDLT is counted twice in household and government tax totals #2159)

Provenance

Side	Commit	Runtime	Environment hash	Partition hash	Time
base	main 60b09a4e59	uk 2.141.6 (files 20906d9e2a60), core 3.33.2, py 3.13.16 aarch64	d3acd9eb9b0a	0d0426ee9e38	950.24s
head	#2521 merged into main 178ce1cabe	uk 2.141.6 (files 5ccc44e0fcab), core 3.33.2, py 3.13.16 aarch64	d3acd9eb9b0a	0d0426ee9e38	928.51s

Dataset: hf://policyengine/policyengine-uk-data-private/enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5@2526edbbb687a3b54dbb11272e5389e4b62d2ac2, sha256 056e80fd8e9151d78f432a25cde863340baee81304c6216a37fb575ce8563784 (verified on both sides), policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1.

Receipts by tax head: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Income tax	£299.38bn	£319.14bn	£336.66bn	£351.81bn	£367.35bn	£385.48bn	£403.83bn
National Insurance (employee and self-employed)	£52.58bn	£54.94bn	£56.75bn	£58.48bn	£60.62bn	£62.57bn	£65.03bn
National Insurance (employer)	£152.64bn	£159.18bn	£164.14bn	£168.73bn	£176.11bn	£181.72bn	£188.90bn
Employer NI change borne by capital	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Employer NI change borne by consumers	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Capital gains tax	£12.62bn	£13.06bn	£13.55bn	£14.04bn	£14.54bn	£15.09bn	£15.65bn
Student loan repayments	£7.83bn	£8.12bn	£8.35bn	£8.56bn	£8.79bn	£9.04bn	£9.38bn
VAT	£253.71bn	£260.53bn	£266.72bn	£273.14bn	£279.83bn	£286.71bn	£293.71bn
Change in VAT from its baseline	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
VAT on private school fees	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Fuel duties	£24.53bn	£24.64bn	£26.64bn	£26.69bn	£26.42bn	£25.76bn	£26.35bn
Alcohol duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Tobacco duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Vehicle excise duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
TV licence fee	£4.28bn	£4.43bn	£4.44bn	£4.46bn	£4.49bn	£4.51bn	£4.53bn
Council tax	£49.56bn	£52.45bn	£55.78bn	£59.39bn	£62.98bn	£66.74bn	£70.70bn
High value council tax surcharge	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.48bn	£0.49bn	£0.51bn	£0.52bn
Northern Ireland domestic rates	£0.55bn	£0.58bn	£0.61bn	£0.63bn	£0.67bn	£0.70bn	£0.73bn
Business rates	£31.73bn	£31.73bn	£31.73bn	£31.73bn	£31.73bn	£31.73bn	£31.73bn
Stamp duty land tax (own purchases, and corporate until the	£10.06bn	£10.56bn	£10.98bn	£11.40bn	£11.81bn	£12.23bn	£12.64bn
Land transaction tax (Wales)	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Land and buildings transaction tax (Scotland)	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn
Unspecified tax change borne by capital	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Unspecified tax change borne by consumers	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Wealth tax	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Wealth tax excluding the main residence	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Land value tax	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Carbon tax	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn

Spending by benefit and service: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
State Pension	£122.50bn	£127.12bn	£128.28bn	£130.21bn	£134.05bn	£138.02bn	£142.08bn
Pension Credit	£6.66bn	£7.04bn	£7.02bn	£7.09bn	£7.21bn	£7.34bn	£7.44bn
Winter Fuel Payment	£1.70bn	£1.68bn	£1.59bn	£1.57bn	£1.57bn	£1.55bn	£1.52bn
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland)	£0.19bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.21bn	£0.21bn	£0.22bn	£0.22bn
Universal Credit	£78.78bn	£83.09bn	£84.89bn	£86.65bn	£87.58bn	£89.00bn	£90.33bn
Housing Benefit	£8.59bn	£8.92bn	£9.19bn	£9.33bn	£9.61bn	£9.87bn	£10.15bn
Council Tax Reduction	£1.99bn	£2.03bn	£2.08bn	£2.13bn	£2.18bn	£2.23bn	£2.28bn
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related)	£2.12bn	£2.18bn	£2.23bn	£2.28bn	£2.33bn	£2.39bn	£2.45bn
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based)	£5.22bn	£5.36bn	£5.49bn	£5.62bn	£5.76bn	£5.90bn	£6.04bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based)	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based)	£0.29bn	£0.30bn	£0.30bn	£0.31bn	£0.32bn	£0.33bn	£0.33bn
Income Support	£0.12bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Working Tax Credit	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Child Tax Credit	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Incapacity Benefit	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Personal Independence Payment	£27.05bn	£28.19bn	£28.94bn	£29.64bn	£30.37bn	£31.11bn	£31.87bn
Disability Living Allowance	£7.52bn	£7.83bn	£8.04bn	£8.24bn	£8.44bn	£8.65bn	£8.86bn
Attendance Allowance	£8.71bn	£9.08bn	£9.32bn	£9.55bn	£9.78bn	£10.02bn	£10.26bn
Carer's Allowance	£4.50bn	£4.69bn	£4.81bn	£4.93bn	£5.05bn	£5.17bn	£5.29bn
Carer Support Payment (Scotland)	£0.35bn	£0.37bn	£0.38bn	£0.39bn	£0.40bn	£0.41bn	£0.41bn
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland)	£0.00bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn
Severe Disablement Allowance	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit	£0.51bn	£0.52bn	£0.53bn	£0.54bn	£0.56bn	£0.57bn	£0.59bn
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme	£0.61bn	£0.62bn	£0.64bn	£0.65bn	£0.67bn	£0.69bn	£0.70bn
War Widow's or Widower's Pension	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Child Benefit	£16.23bn	£16.91bn	£17.32bn	£17.73bn	£18.16bn	£18.60bn	£19.04bn
Scottish Child Payment	£0.50bn	£0.52bn	£0.53bn	£0.55bn	£0.56bn	£0.57bn	£0.58bn
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual)	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Healthy Start vouchers	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn
Maternity Allowance	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Statutory Maternity Pay	£3.32bn	£3.41bn	£3.49bn	£3.57bn	£3.66bn	£3.75bn	£3.84bn
Statutory Paternity Pay	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Statutory Sick Pay	£1.13bn	£1.16bn	£1.19bn	£1.22bn	£1.25bn	£1.28bn	£1.31bn
Sure Start Maternity Grant	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn
Bereavement Support Payment	£0.67bn	£0.69bn	£0.70bn	£0.72bn	£0.74bn	£0.76bn	£0.78bn
Tax-Free Childcare	£0.55bn	£0.56bn	£0.57bn	£0.58bn	£0.60bn	£0.61bn	£0.59bn
Extended childcare entitlement	£2.66bn	£3.14bn	£3.23bn	£3.30bn	£3.38bn	£3.47bn	£3.55bn
Universal childcare entitlement	£3.32bn	£3.59bn	£3.69bn	£3.78bn	£3.88bn	£3.99bn	£4.08bn
Targeted childcare entitlement	£0.57bn	£0.60bn	£0.62bn	£0.63bn	£0.65bn	£0.66bn	£0.67bn
Care to Learn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Childcare Grant	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Parents' Learning Allowance	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn
Adult Dependants' Grant	£0.06bn	£0.06bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn
Travel Grant	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
NHS spending	£204.68bn	£205.46bn	£206.22bn	£207.04bn	£207.96bn	£208.89bn	£209.79bn
State education spending	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn
Transport subsidy spending	£25.15bn	£25.25bn	£25.34bn	£25.44bn	£25.55bn	£25.67bn	£25.78bn
Cost-of-living support payment	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Energy Bills Rebate	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Basic income	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Disability basic income	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Other public spending budget change	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn

Caseloads: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
State Pension	11,308k	11,208k	10,906k	10,812k	10,860k	10,908k	10,955k
Pension Credit	1,490k	1,489k	1,477k	1,455k	1,457k	1,454k	1,450k
Winter Fuel Payment	7,091k	7,008k	6,593k	6,509k	6,491k	6,377k	6,242k
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland)	806k	807k	807k	805k	809k	812k	816k
Universal Credit	6,371k	6,379k	6,409k	6,419k	6,395k	6,387k	6,371k
Housing Benefit	1,254k	1,252k	1,254k	1,240k	1,244k	1,247k	1,249k
Council Tax Reduction	3,185k	3,210k	3,223k	3,244k	3,262k	3,280k	3,293k
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related)	187k	188k	188k	189k	190k	190k	191k
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based)	722k	724k	727k	730k	733k	737k	740k
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based)	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based)	67k	67k	68k	68k	68k	69k	69k
Income Support	25k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Working Tax Credit	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Child Tax Credit	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Incapacity Benefit	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Personal Independence Payment	3,581k	3,595k	3,608k	3,623k	3,639k	3,655k	3,671k
Disability Living Allowance	1,296k	1,301k	1,306k	1,311k	1,317k	1,323k	1,329k
Attendance Allowance	1,701k	1,708k	1,714k	1,721k	1,729k	1,736k	1,744k
Carer's Allowance	1,038k	1,042k	1,046k	1,050k	1,055k	1,059k	1,064k
Carer Support Payment (Scotland)	81k	82k	82k	82k	83k	83k	83k
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland)	0k	82k	82k	82k	83k	83k	83k
Severe Disablement Allowance	4k	4k	4k	4k	4k	4k	4k
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit	137k	138k	139k	139k	140k	140k	141k
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme	94k	94k	94k	95k	95k	95k	96k
War Widow's or Widower's Pension	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Child Benefit	8,136k	8,165k	8,185k	8,215k	8,249k	8,282k	8,314k
Scottish Child Payment	352k	354k	355k	356k	357k	358k	357k
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual)	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Healthy Start vouchers	200k	201k	202k	203k	204k	204k	205k
Maternity Allowance	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Statutory Maternity Pay	334k	335k	336k	338k	339k	341k	342k
Statutory Paternity Pay	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Statutory Sick Pay	182k	183k	183k	184k	185k	186k	186k
Sure Start Maternity Grant	26k	26k	26k	27k	27k	27k	27k
Bereavement Support Payment	98k	98k	99k	99k	100k	100k	101k
Tax-Free Childcare	1,017k	1,028k	1,028k	1,033k	1,034k	1,038k	1,023k
Extended childcare entitlement	665k	671k	675k	677k	682k	686k	687k
Universal childcare entitlement	986k	989k	992k	997k	1,002k	1,013k	1,015k
Targeted childcare entitlement	119k	120k	120k	121k	121k	122k	121k
Care to Learn	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Childcare Grant	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Parents' Learning Allowance	98k	99k	99k	100k	100k	100k	101k
Adult Dependants' Grant	18k	18k	12k	13k	13k	13k	13k
Travel Grant	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Cost-of-living support payment	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Energy Bills Rebate	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Basic income	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Disability basic income	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k

Government balance, each component counted once: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Government receipts, each component once	£899.48bn	£939.37bn	£976.38bn	£1,009.57bn	£1,045.85bn	£1,082.80bn	£1,123.71bn
Government spending	£536.58bn †	£550.92bn †	£557.25bn †	£564.32bn †	£572.87bn †	£582.12bn †	£591.28bn †
Government balance, each receipt once	£362.90bn †	£388.45bn †	£419.13bn †	£445.25bn †	£472.98bn †	£500.68bn †	£532.43bn †
Benefits in household_benefits but not in gov_spending	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn

Model totals: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
gov_tax	£902.61bn	£942.50bn	£979.51bn	£1,012.70bn	£1,048.98bn	£1,085.93bn	£1,126.84bn
household_tax	£496.26bn	£522.79bn	£548.64bn	£570.82bn	£593.03bn	£617.49bn	£644.24bn
pre_budget_change_household_tax	£488.43bn	£514.67bn	£540.29bn	£561.78bn	£583.75bn	£607.95bn	£634.34bn
gov_spending	£536.58bn †	£550.92bn †	£557.25bn †	£564.32bn †	£572.87bn †	£582.12bn †	£591.28bn †
household_benefits	£536.58bn †	£550.92bn †	£557.25bn †	£564.32bn †	£572.87bn †	£582.12bn †	£591.28bn †
gov_balance	£366.03bn †	£391.58bn †	£422.26bn †	£448.38bn †	£476.11bn †	£503.81bn †	£535.56bn †

Components the model counts twice: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
corporate_sdlt, counted again inside expected_sdlt	£3.13bn	£3.13bn	£3.13bn	£3.13bn	£3.13bn	£3.13bn	£3.13bn

Household income totals: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Household market income	£1,657.06bn	£1,719.25bn	£1,771.68bn	£1,821.99bn	£1,891.04bn	£1,949.88bn	£2,021.87bn
Household net income	£1,658.11bn †	£1,706.62bn †	£1,738.40bn †	£1,772.54bn †	£1,808.64bn †	£1,850.28bn †	£1,901.98bn †
Household net income (HBAI definition)	£1,466.67bn	£1,513.40bn	£1,545.60bn	£1,578.60bn	£1,612.63bn	£1,651.67bn	£1,702.07bn

Population: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
People	69,514k	69,778k	70,036k	70,316k	70,626k	70,944k	71,249k
Benefit units	35,247k	35,381k	35,512k	35,654k	35,811k	35,972k	36,127k
Households	31,167k	31,285k	31,401k	31,526k	31,665k	31,808k	31,944k

Poverty rates: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone	15.9%	14.9%	15.5%	15.6%	15.7%	15.8%	15.7%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children	23.7%	20.9%	21.6%	21.4%	21.6%	21.8%	21.7%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	13.8%	13.4%	14.0%	14.1%	14.2%	14.3%	14.3%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	13.7%	13.1%	13.2%	13.4%	13.5%	13.6%	13.6%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone	21.1%	20.6%	21.3%	21.5%	21.9%	22.2%	22.3%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children	32.1%	30.3%	30.9%	31.1%	31.7%	32.3%	32.5%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	19.6%	19.4%	20.2%	20.4%	20.8%	21.0%	21.0%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	12.7%	12.5%	12.6%	12.9%	13.0%	13.1%	13.4%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone	16.9%	16.4%	16.4%	16.5%	16.6%	16.7%	16.7%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children	25.6%	23.5%	23.2%	23.2%	23.3%	23.4%	23.4%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	14.4%	14.4%	14.7%	14.8%	14.9%	15.1%	15.0%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	14.8%	14.9%	14.1%	14.3%	14.2%	14.2%	14.4%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone	21.7%	21.3%	21.4%	21.5%	21.7%	21.8%	22.0%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children	33.0%	31.6%	31.2%	31.1%	31.5%	31.6%	32.0%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	20.0%	20.0%	20.3%	20.4%	20.6%	20.8%	20.9%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	13.5%	13.1%	12.7%	12.8%	12.7%	12.7%	12.8%

People in poverty: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone	11,051k	10,427k	10,848k	10,947k	11,079k	11,209k	11,218k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children	3,560k	3,141k	3,261k	3,253k	3,298k	3,334k	3,334k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	5,864k	5,737k	6,070k	6,165k	6,237k	6,315k	6,319k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	1,627k	1,549k	1,517k	1,529k	1,544k	1,561k	1,565k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone	14,660k	14,362k	14,899k	15,116k	15,439k	15,724k	15,870k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children	4,809k	4,556k	4,676k	4,719k	4,832k	4,939k	4,994k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	8,333k	8,326k	8,775k	8,931k	9,120k	9,275k	9,329k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	1,518k	1,480k	1,449k	1,466k	1,487k	1,509k	1,547k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone	11,760k	11,456k	11,504k	11,625k	11,706k	11,868k	11,914k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children	3,840k	3,538k	3,514k	3,525k	3,546k	3,582k	3,602k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	6,154k	6,160k	6,365k	6,465k	6,537k	6,651k	6,651k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	1,766k	1,758k	1,625k	1,634k	1,623k	1,634k	1,661k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone	15,065k	14,863k	14,993k	15,090k	15,314k	15,490k	15,653k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children	4,948k	4,756k	4,711k	4,715k	4,795k	4,840k	4,919k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	8,511k	8,559k	8,822k	8,917k	9,068k	9,192k	9,260k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	1,605k	1,548k	1,460k	1,458k	1,452k	1,457k	1,475k

Inequality: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Gini coefficient, equivalised HBAI income before housing costs	0.3074	0.3051	0.3065	0.3071	0.3077	0.3083	0.3093

Mean household net income in each side's own deciles: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household	£17,707 †	£17,997 †	£17,941 †	£17,992 †	£18,326 †	£18,522 †	£18,686 †
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household	£28,362 †	£29,040 †	£28,672 †	£29,013 †	£29,373 †	£29,779 †	£30,329 †
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household	£34,607 †	£35,901 †	£36,507 †	£37,008 †	£37,263 †	£37,825 †	£38,514 †
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household	£39,329 †	£40,908 †	£41,808 †	£42,695 †	£43,186 †	£43,984 †	£45,129 †
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household	£44,871 †	£46,147 †	£47,077 †	£47,609 †	£48,379 †	£49,251 †	£50,073 †
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household	£47,930 †	£49,325 †	£50,272 †	£51,070 †	£52,170 †	£52,939 †	£54,222 †
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household	£56,320 †	£57,578 †	£58,469 †	£59,414 †	£60,124 †	£61,607 †	£63,192 †
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household	£69,250 †	£70,361 †	£71,635 †	£72,869 †	£74,327 †	£75,790 †	£77,563 †
Decile 9: mean household_net_income per household	£79,671 †	£82,008 †	£83,242 †	£84,444 †	£86,085 †	£87,570 †	£90,640 †
Decile 10: mean household_net_income per household	£117,648 †	£120,458 †	£122,406 †	£124,560 †	£126,772 †	£129,080 †	£131,872 †

Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance): head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp	£6.22bn	£6.50bn	£6.71bn	£6.90bn	£7.11bn	£7.35bn	£7.62bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp	£3.54bn	£3.82bn	£4.05bn	£4.27bn	£4.49bn	£4.76bn	£4.96bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year	£-3.83bn	£-3.96bn	£-4.03bn	£-4.10bn	£-4.20bn	£-4.30bn	£-2.02bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child	£-2.00bn	£-1.76bn	£-1.64bn	£-1.54bn	£-1.44bn	£-1.34bn	£-1.24bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%	£-20.54bn	£-21.10bn	£-21.45bn	£-21.88bn	£-21.96bn	£-22.33bn	£-22.81bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%	£11.06bn	£11.51bn	£11.83bn	£12.14bn	£12.47bn	£12.81bn	£13.29bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp	£25.01bn	£25.68bn	£26.29bn	£26.92bn	£27.58bn	£28.26bn	£28.95bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp	£2.83bn	£3.07bn	£3.27bn	£3.47bn	£3.67bn	£3.91bn	£4.23bn
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%	£-3.04bn	£-3.17bn	£-3.24bn	£-3.32bn	£-3.37bn	£-3.43bn	£-3.47bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%	£-8.92bn	£-9.13bn	£-9.03bn	£-9.06bn	£-9.26bn	£-9.51bn	£-9.78bn

Standard reforms: change in each reform's target: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp: change in income_tax	£6.36bn	£6.65bn	£6.87bn	£7.07bn	£7.29bn	£7.53bn	£7.81bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp: change in income_tax	£3.55bn	£3.83bn	£4.06bn	£4.28bn	£4.50bn	£4.78bn	£4.97bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year: change in income_tax	£-3.96bn	£-4.11bn	£-4.19bn	£-4.27bn	£-4.36bn	£-4.47bn	£-1.77bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child: change in child_benefit	£2.34bn	£2.15bn	£2.03bn	£1.92bn	£1.82bn	£1.71bn	£1.59bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%: change in universal_credit	£20.53bn	£21.09bn	£21.44bn	£21.87bn	£21.95bn	£22.32bn	£22.80bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%: change in national_insurance	£11.33bn	£11.79bn	£12.13bn	£12.44bn	£12.78bn	£13.13bn	£13.62bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp: change in vat	£25.01bn	£25.68bn	£26.29bn	£26.92bn	£27.58bn	£28.26bn	£28.95bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax	£2.83bn	£3.07bn	£3.27bn	£3.47bn	£3.67bn	£3.91bn	£4.23bn
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%: change in universal_credit	£3.04bn	£3.17bn	£3.25bn	£3.32bn	£3.38bn	£3.43bn	£3.48bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%: change in state_pension	£12.25bn	£12.71bn	£12.83bn	£13.02bn	£13.41bn	£13.80bn	£14.21bn

[vahid-ahmadi]

@juaristi22 first-round review of #2521 at 2ae29597d. Two shoulds and two nits. The mechanism looks right; the first should is about the 2026-27 number it produces.

What I checked

• Law, from legislation.gov.uk. UC Act 2025 s.2 inserts the £217.26 new-claimant row into UC Regs 2013 reg.36 from 6 April 2026. s.3 disapplies SSAA 1992 s.150(1) and (2) for the LCWRA and LCW elements for the four uprating years. s.4 is the protected-amount floor. Reg.36 as amended now shows £217.26 and £429.80 (pre-2026, severe conditions or terminally ill). So with the Act switched off, the 2026-27 element is the 2025-26 £423.27 uprated under ordinary s.150, with no cohort split, freeze or floor. That is what #2283 asks for and what the PR does structurally.
• uc_reform.py:290-299: the wrapper only acts in REBALANCING_YEARS, defers to explicit amount overrides (dated assignments and legacy overrides, including pending single-day ones) and scales the delegated formula's result, so eligibility and any other logic in uc_LCWRA_element still apply. Supplied awards are kept (uc_reform.py:320-327). parameters(str(year)) resolves to the fiscal-year value here (parameters("2025") gives £423.27), so the base year is right.
• is_uc_benefit_cap_exempt_specified_benefit.py:58: lcwra_formula_origin only unwraps formulas registered in the WeakKeyDictionary, so external wrappers keep their own provenance. Looks correct.
• Tests locally: test_uc_rebalancing.py, test_benefit_cap_specified_benefits_properties.py, test_uc_health_*.py, test_uc_standard_allowance_uplift.py, the benefit-cap property and scenario tests and test_construction_reform_wrappers.py: 233 passed. UC YAML (gov/dwp/universal_credit and finance/benefit/family/universal_credit): 504 passed. With the PR's two test files on base 47642d1ee, 9 of the new test_uc_rebalancing.py tests fail, including the Reproducer: test, so they detect the bug.
• CI at head is green (the cancelled Fix evidence run is superseded by two successful ones). Changelog fragment is present.

Findings

1. should uc_reform.py:259-263, 2026-27 uprating rate. The method follows #2283's spec ("the model's benefit uprating index"), but that index is out of line with law for 2026-27. benefit_uprating_cpi rises by 3.40% from 2025-26 to 2026-27 (178.3175 to 184.3803, built from lag_cpi.py). The actual 2026-27 uprating was 3.8% (September 2025 CPI). DWP's benefit and pension rates 2026 to 2027 shows the statutory minimum increase at 3.80%, and the repo's own parameters agree: the UC carer element goes £201.68 to £209.34 (reg.36) and Carer's Allowance £83.30 to £86.45, both 3.8%. So the PR pays £437.66 a month in 2026-27, where ordinary s.150 uprating gives £423.27 × 1.038 = £439.35. That is £1.69 a month (about £20 a year) low per claimant, and every later inactive year starts from the low base. Two ways to resolve it: (a) correct the index's 2026 value to the outturn in its own PR, which fixes every amount that depends on it, and note that here; or (b) anchor 2026-27 explicitly in this PR and use the index only from 2027-28. Either way, the tests can't catch this, because _inactive_lcwra_expected (test_uc_rebalancing.py:415-421) rebuilds the same index ratio. Please add one hard-coded 2026 assertion (£439.35 × 12 = £5,272.20, to within rounding).

2. should PR body, Axiom: needed. The PR template (.github/PULL_REQUEST_TEMPLATE.md:16) keeps needed for external contributors who cannot do the Axiom work, so a maintainer PR should use one of the standard options. If the inactive counterfactual needs rulespec-uk work, open the issue and use <rulespec-uk issue> queued. If you see this as a scenario counterfactual with no change to enacted law, n/a: <reason> fits. Either way, not needed.

3. nit uc_reform.py:290. After PROJECTION_END_YEAR (2032), active: false falls back to the Act's £217.26 parameter path again, so a long-run "Act off" run halves the element from 2033-34. The docs say so (uc-rebalancing.md:27), but a warning, or a sentence in the new paragraph at uc-rebalancing.md:95, would make the limit clear to someone switching the Act off.

4. nit Merge order with #1989 (draft, currently conflicting), which rewrites uc_LCWRA_element's formula. The wrapper delegates through get_formula(period) and the benefit-cap check matches by code location, so they should compose. Whichever lands second should rerun test_uc_rebalancing.py and test_benefit_cap_specified_benefits_properties.py.

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

[juaristi22]

Addressed the two shoulds in review5585327926. The inactive2026-27 counterfactual now anchors at £439.35/month (£5,272.20/year), with index growth from that anchor for later years. The existing public-late-amount, claimant and supplied-input contracts remain covered. The scoped RuleSpec367 handoff is delivered and queued; encoding/parity remains OPEN and no billed run is approved.

The ordinary integration with captured main 78f480f2 passed34 unique Python cases and490 YAML programme checks; one credential-dependent dataset control is NOTRUN. Prior41/490 results and the52-case timeout remain separately attributed. This does not certify whole-population results or an unrestricted long-run Act-off projection.

[MaxGhenis]

Merged by the UK hub (session local_8e19f9d5, Opus 5.5) on Max's explicit instruction to merge the team's ready PRs before the Budget (21 October, about 23:00Z: "go ahead and merge them. none of us has time to wait on each other"). One merge-queue enqueue, pinned to head dec3d00a14715dd82bb5366956a8781b680f4bb4.

• Gates at this head: every check passes; GitHub reports MERGEABLE; not a draft; juaristi22, review decision . The merge queue re-tests against current main.
• Review: no independent agent review was run at this head before merging, on Max's instruction. Any finding after merge goes to a follow-up PR.
• Budget: the Budget runs on a locked pe-uk release (microcosm#1333). This change reaches Budget-day numbers only if the lock moves to a release that contains it.

🤖 Generated with Claude Code