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End income-related ESA when the family claims Universal Credit - #2563

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fix-1914-esa-ir-uc-gate
Oct 23, 2026
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End income-related ESA when the family claims Universal Credit#2563
MaxGhenis merged 4 commits into
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fix-1914-esa-ir-uc-gate

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@MaxGhenis MaxGhenis commented Oct 22, 2026 •
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Fixes #1914 (the Universal Credit overlap). The 1 July 2026 abolition itself moves to #2562 (see "Not in this PR").

What and why

The model paid income-related ESA to a family that also claims Universal Credit. esa_income was not gated on the claim, so on the Enhanced FRS (uk-data 1.56.16, 2027) it paid £1.64bn of ESA(IR) to 137.8k benefit units that also get UC (issue body). A UC claim ends an old style ESA award's income-related allowance. So the claimant's and partner's ESA(IR) now ends when their family claims UC.

The law

  • Abolition. Welfare Reform Act 2012 s.33(1)(b) abolishes income-related ESA. Its commencement turns on a UC claim.
  • The claim triggers it. SI 2013/983 art. 4 (the No. 9 Order) brings "the amending provisions" (s.33(1)(a) and (b) and the consequential repeals) into force "in relation to the case of a claim" for UC (art. 4(1), (2)(a)). That includes "an old style ESA award ... that exists ... immediately before the day appointed" for that claim (art. 4(9)). The day is "the first day of the period in respect of which the claim is made" (art. 4(3)(a)). Later orders apply the same article to further postcode districts, for example SI 2015/634 art. 4.
  • Whether or not UC is awarded. The trigger is the claim, and any award made on it. So a claim with nil entitlement still ends the award.
  • Run-on. For claims from 22 July 2020, the appointed day moves to the last day of two weeks starting the day after (SI 2019/1152 reg. 5). An annual model can't represent two weeks, as for the IS and HB run-ons.
  • Confirmed by the 2026 order. SI 2025/1148 art. 3A(3) (inserted by SI 2026/409) speaks of the amending provisions "coming into force as a consequence of a claim for universal credit".
  • Northern Ireland. The same structure applies: Welfare Reform (NI) Order 2015 art. 39(1)(b), SR 2017/190 art. 6(1) to (3) and (6), and SR 2025/176 art. 3A(3).
  • Who the claim covers. The claim is the UC claimant's (or joint claimants'). A member who is neither the claimant nor the partner, such as a non-dependent adult, claims ESA in their own right, so the family's claim does not end their award.
  • Contributory ESA continues. Only the income-related allowance ends. A contributory allowance continues as new style ESA (esa_contrib, unchanged).
  • Not in Transitional Regs reg 8. SI 2014/1230 reg. 8 ends tax credits, IS and HB on a claim, but not ESA(IR), and reg. 5(1) doesn't list it. The commencement orders above are the operative provisions.

The change

  • New variable. esa_income_report_closed (Person) is true when the award on a member's report has ended. That happens when their legacy benefits have closed (person_legacy_benefits_closed, as before), or when they are the claimant or partner of a benefit unit that claims UC (claims_universal_credit).
  • Its readers. It replaces person_legacy_benefits_closed in esa_income, esa_income_eligible and utils/benefit_unit.award_of_members (through a per-award REPORT_CLOSED map; income-based JSA keeps person_legacy_benefits_closed). So every reader of the claimant's or partner's award agrees: claimant_or_partner_esa_income, is_on_income_related_esa, the passports, the CTR and HB means tests, and the benefit cap.
  • A separate variable. It is new, rather than an edit to person_legacy_benefits_closed, for two reasons. Abolish working-age Housing Benefit from 1 July 2026 (NI 1 October 2026) #1910, held under d837, edits that variable. And widening it would also end income-based JSA, which is out of scope here.
  • The claim flag. The gate uses claims_universal_credit, the same claim flag that already ends a working-age Housing Benefit continuing award and Child Tax Credit. Like them, a household entered without would_claim_uc: false claims UC, because would_claim_uc defaults to true.
  • Docs. claims_universal_credit's documentation no longer lists income-related ESA among the overlaps it doesn't model.

Before and after

Single claimant aged 40, reporting £5,000 a year of income-related ESA, no capital, 2025 (esa_income_universal_credit_claim.yaml):

would_claim_uc main this PR
Case 1 true ESA(IR) £5,000, UC paid alongside ESA(IR) £0
Case 2 false ESA(IR) £5,000 ESA(IR) £5,000 (unchanged)
Case 3, £40,000 pension income, so nil UC true ESA(IR) £5,000 ESA(IR) £0: the claim still ends it
Case 4, couple's claim plus a non-dependant's own £2,000 award true esa_income £7,000 £2,000, the non-dependant's own

Case 1 in full (model run, 2025): on main, £5,000 of ESA(IR) plus £4,801.68 of UC (12 × £400.14), so £9,801.68 of benefits. Here, the UC alone: £4,801.68. Household net income falls by £5,000. Case 3 goes from £5,000 of ESA(IR) and no UC to neither.

Aggregate impact

From the Aggregate impact report at 1abee5e, refreshed at 09:25Z, with the same figures as at e9aec0d. It compares base 9d81a5d (main's head, the merge commit's first parent) with merge bd5cf1f, both on the certified Enhanced FRS 2024-25 (policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1). The report found 0 checks broken by this change, and 1 failing on both sides.

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
ESA (income-related) spending -£1.33bn -£1.36bn -£1.39bn -£1.43bn -£1.46bn -£1.50bn -£1.53bn
ESA (income-related) caseload -116.0k -116.4k -116.8k -117.3k -117.8k -118.3k -118.8k
Council Tax Reduction spending +£0.3m +£0.6m +£0.6m +£0.7m +£0.7m +£0.8m +£0.8m
Government balance +£1.33bn +£1.36bn +£1.39bn +£1.43bn +£1.46bn +£1.50bn +£1.53bn
Absolute poverty BHC, people +21.2k +22.0k +22.1k +23.5k +23.6k +23.7k +23.8k
Absolute poverty AHC, people +33.7k +35.4k +37.3k +37.5k +38.5k +38.6k +41.8k
  • ESA(IR) before and after. Spending goes from £2.12bn to £0.79bn in 2025-26 (£2.23bn to £0.83bn in 2027-28). The caseload goes from 187k to 71k benefit units.
  • Other lines. No other spending line moves beyond the CTR figures above. UC itself doesn't change, because the model never counted ESA(IR) as UC income. Household net income falls by the ESA(IR) amount. Relative poverty moves are small and change sign from year to year; the full tables are in the report.
  • Against the issue's figure. The issue measured a £1.64bn overlap in 2027 on uk-data 1.56.16. This run is on certified 1.58.1, and it also removes ESA(IR) from claimants with nil UC.
  • What remains. The remaining ~£0.8bn goes to about 71k benefit units that don't claim UC. Abolish income-related ESA from 1 July 2026 (NI 1 October 2026) #2562 (the 1 July 2026 abolition) addresses that.

Tests

  • YAML. policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/finance/benefit/family/esa_income/esa_income_universal_credit_claim.yaml has six cases, hand-computed from the law above. Cases 1 and 3 to 6 fail on main and pass here. Case 2 is the no-claim control (it fails on main only because esa_income_report_closed is new).
  • Property tests. policyengine_uk/tests/test_esa_income_universal_credit_claim_properties.py (Hypothesis, derandomised) covers 2024 to 2027.
  • Existing tests. 84 cases in 14 YAML files described legacy ESA claimants without setting would_claim_uc, which defaults to true, so the claim now ends their award. Each gets would_claim_uc: false on the benefit unit whose claimant or partner reports ESA(IR). That keeps what the case tests: an ESA capital, work, passport or reader rule for a family on the legacy award. They were found by computing esa_income_report_closed for every YAML case with a report: it ended a live report in 84 cases and left 45 alone, and after the change it ends none. Ten Python test files get the same change in their builders, for the same reason. Where a test covers UC as well, the claim follows the scheme instead:
    • the benefit cap's UC families claim and its HB families don't;
    • the winter heating families claim exactly when their award is UC;
    • the benefit cap's regulation reference counts the couple's ESA(IR) only without a claim.

Local runs, in the worktree's locked venv (core 3.33.2) at load 70 to 240:

  • The new YAML file: 6/6 pass here. On an origin/main export, 6/6 fail; with the new variable's outputs stripped, cases 1 and 3 to 6 still fail on substance (for example esa_income £7,000 against £2,000), and case 2, the control, passes.
  • Every YAML file with an esa_income_reported input (23 files, 385 cases): all pass.
  • The new property tests: 2/2 pass (-n 2, 7 min).
  • code_health metadata checks (variables, input definitions, income and aggregation lists, uprating, fix-PR checker): 2,354 pass.
  • uvx ruff@latest format --check . (0.17.1): clean.
  • CI at 1abee5e: all 16 checks pass (Test / Result, the five Python shards, YAML, Lint, Fix evidence, Aggregate impact, docs and smoke imports).
  • CI at e9aec0d: Lint, Fix evidence, YAML, docs, smoke imports and Python shards 2 to 4 passed. Shards 1 and 5 failed on six tests in test_income_support_esa_entered_directly.py, whose carer reports ESA(IR) under the default UC claim. 1abee5e gives that family would_claim_uc: false, and the file now passes 20/20 locally.
  • Locally, the six Python files edited first (legacy readers, legacy work, closure scope, IS eligibility, IS gate, benefit cap): 106/106 pass. CI passed all of them at e9aec0d.

Invariants

  1. Exclusive: a benefit unit that claims UC pays its claimant and partner no income-related ESA (claimant_or_partner_esa_income = 0), and neither is on it (is_on_income_related_esa). So UC and the couple's ESA(IR) are never both paid, whether or not UC is awarded.
  2. Differential: for income-related ESA, claiming UC is the same as the claimant and partner reporting no award. esa_income, claimant_or_partner_esa_income, esa_income_eligible and each member's is_on_income_related_esa all match. A non-dependant's own award is what it would be without the couple's report.
  3. Inert without a claim: for a family that does not claim UC, esa_income_report_closed is person_legacy_benefits_closed, as before.

Intended: claiming UC can raise esa_income. While the claimant or partner reports an award, esa_income_eligible tests only them, and another member's report is paid or not with their claim. Once the claim ends the couple's award, that member is screened on their own claim, which is invariant 2.

Not in this PR

  • The 1 July 2026 abolition (SI 2025/1148 art. 3A; NI 1 October 2026, SR 2025/176 art. 3A) follows Abolish working-age Housing Benefit from 1 July 2026 (NI 1 October 2026) #1910's fiscal_year_blend switch, which is held under d837. It is tracked in Abolish income-related ESA from 1 July 2026 (NI 1 October 2026) #2562. Until it lands, a family that does not claim UC keeps its reported ESA(IR) after 1 July 2026.
  • Other overlaps. UC's overlap with income-based JSA, Income Support and Working Tax Credit for families DWP has not moved is still not modelled. JSA(IB) and IS are closed from 1 April 2026 in the model; WTC from 6 April 2025.
  • New style ESA as UC unearned income (UC Regs 2013 reg. 66(1)(b); TP Regs reg. 8B(b)) is the separate question the issue raises. It is unchanged here.

Reproducer: policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/finance/benefit/family/esa_income/esa_income_universal_credit_claim.yaml::Case 1, a single claimant who claims Universal Credit loses income-related ESA., policyengine_uk/tests/test_esa_income_universal_credit_claim_properties.py::test_a_universal_credit_claim_ends_the_couples_income_related_esa

axiom: TheAxiomFoundation/rulespec-uk#433 queued

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

MaxGhenis and others added 2 commits October 22, 2026 02:25
@MaxGhenis @claude
End income-related ESA when the family claims Universal Credit
efaec34 
A claim for Universal Credit brings the abolition of income-related ESA
(Welfare Reform Act 2012 s.33(1)(b)) into force for the claimant's old
style ESA award, whether or not UC is awarded (SI 2013/983 art. 4(1),
(2)(a), (3)(a) and (9); NI: SR 2017/190 art. 6). The model paid it
alongside UC.

esa_income_report_closed (Person) ends the award on a report when the
owner's legacy benefits close, or when they are the claimant or partner
of a benefit unit that claims UC. esa_income, esa_income_eligible and
award_of_members read it, so every reader of the claimant's or partner's
award agrees. A non-dependant's own award is not part of the claim.

Existing cases for legacy ESA claimants now say the family does not
claim UC (would_claim_uc: false), which keeps what each one tests.

Fixes #1914 (the UC overlap; the 1 July 2026 abolition follows #1910).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis @claude
Make the legacy-award property tests' families non-UC claimants
e9aec0d 
These tests model families on legacy income-related awards. would_claim_uc
defaults to true, and a UC claim now ends the couple's income-related ESA
(esa_income_report_closed), so their builders say the family does not
claim UC. Where a test is about UC too, the claim follows the scheme: the
benefit cap's UC families claim and its HB families don't, and the winter
heating families claim exactly when their award is UC. The benefit cap's
reference counts the couple's income-related ESA only without a claim.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
This was referenced Oct 22, 2026
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Aggregate impact on certified data: pass

Base a29f30a5d9 against head 93cc7e06ff, both on enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5 (policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1, sha256 056e80fd8e91), fiscal years 2025-26 to 2031-32. Each year is a full microsimulation run on each side.

Checks: 0 broken by this change, 1 failing on both sides, 0 fixed. Moves flagged for review: 110 (thresholds in report_spec.yaml; a flag does not fail the job).

Workflow run and full report

Notes

  • In the years a figure from fewer than 10 records is suppressed (spending.disabled_students_allowance), every total containing it, and the decile incomes, are rebuilt from their other components, so no published total includes it. Those totals are marked †. A change is withheld where the two sides leave out different figures and can't be lined up.

Moves flagged for review

Measure Year Base Head Change
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related) 2031-32 191k 72k -118.8k
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related) 2030-31 190k 72k -118.3k
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related) 2029-30 190k 72k -117.8k
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related) 2028-29 189k 72k -117.3k
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related) 2027-28 188k 71k -116.8k
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related) 2026-27 188k 71k -116.4k
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related) 2025-26 187k 71k -116.0k
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related) 2031-32 £2.45bn £0.91bn -£1.53bn
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related) 2030-31 £2.39bn £0.89bn -£1.50bn
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related) 2029-30 £2.33bn £0.87bn -£1.46bn
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household 2025-26 £39,398 £38,824 -£574
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related) 2028-29 £2.28bn £0.85bn -£1.43bn
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related) 2027-28 £2.23bn £0.83bn -£1.39bn
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related) 2026-27 £2.18bn £0.81bn -£1.36bn
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related) 2025-26 £2.12bn £0.79bn -£1.33bn
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 2031-32 1,491k 1,414k -76.7k
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household 2031-32 £77,575 £78,242 +£668
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household 2027-28 £45,872 £45,535 -£338
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 2031-32 12.9% 12.2% -0.66pp
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household 2025-26 £68,817 £69,269 +£452
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household 2031-32 £30,442 £30,257 -£185
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household 2025-26 £43,698 £43,957 +£260
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household 2026-27 £70,403 £70,751 +£348
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household 2025-26 £34,455 £34,294 -£161
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children 2031-32 32.1% 31.6% -0.46pp
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household 2026-27 £45,019 £44,826 -£193
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household 2029-30 £47,624 £47,426 -£198
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household 2028-29 £46,588 £46,404 -£184
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household 2028-29 £72,842 £73,125 +£284
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household 2030-31 £53,469 £53,262 -£207
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household 2028-29 £29,163 £29,051 -£112
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household 2030-31 £44,024 £43,858 -£166
Government balance, each receipt once 2025-26 £367.45bn £368.77bn +£1.33bn
gov_balance 2025-26 £367.45bn £368.77bn +£1.33bn
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household 2027-28 £58,380 £58,590 +£210
Government balance, each receipt once 2026-27 £392.26bn £393.62bn +£1.36bn
gov_balance 2026-27 £392.26bn £393.62bn +£1.36bn
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household 2031-32 £62,979 £62,762 -£217
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household 2030-31 £29,997 £29,898 -£100
Government balance, each receipt once 2027-28 £423.13bn £424.52bn +£1.39bn

70 more flags are in the report artifact.

Spending by benefit and service

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Council Tax Reduction +£0.3m +£0.6m +£0.6m +£0.7m +£0.7m +£0.8m +£0.8m
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related) -£1.33bn -£1.36bn -£1.39bn -£1.43bn -£1.46bn -£1.50bn -£1.53bn
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed

Caseloads

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Council Tax Reduction +1.1k +1.1k +1.1k +1.1k +1.1k +1.1k +1.1k
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related) -116.0k -116.4k -116.8k -117.3k -117.8k -118.3k -118.8k
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed

Government balance, each component counted once

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Government spending -£1.33bn † -£1.36bn † -£1.39bn † -£1.43bn † -£1.46bn † -£1.50bn † -£1.53bn †
Government balance, each receipt once +£1.33bn † +£1.36bn † +£1.39bn † +£1.43bn † +£1.46bn † +£1.50bn † +£1.53bn †

Model totals

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
gov_spending -£1.33bn † -£1.36bn † -£1.39bn † -£1.43bn † -£1.46bn † -£1.50bn † -£1.53bn †
household_benefits -£1.33bn † -£1.36bn † -£1.39bn † -£1.43bn † -£1.46bn † -£1.50bn † -£1.53bn †
gov_balance +£1.33bn † +£1.36bn † +£1.39bn † +£1.43bn † +£1.46bn † +£1.50bn † +£1.53bn †

Household income totals

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Household net income -£1.33bn † -£1.36bn † -£1.39bn † -£1.43bn † -£1.46bn † -£1.50bn † -£1.53bn †
Household net income (HBAI definition) -£1.33bn -£1.36bn -£1.39bn -£1.43bn -£1.46bn -£1.50bn -£1.53bn

Poverty rates

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone +0.03pp +0.03pp +0.03pp +0.03pp +0.03pp +0.03pp +0.03pp
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults +0.05pp +0.05pp +0.05pp +0.05pp +0.05pp +0.05pp +0.05pp
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners +0.00pp +0.00pp +0.00pp +0.00pp +0.00pp +0.00pp +0.00pp
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone +0.05pp +0.05pp +0.05pp +0.05pp +0.05pp +0.05pp +0.06pp
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults +0.08pp +0.08pp +0.08pp +0.08pp +0.09pp +0.09pp +0.09pp
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners +0.01pp +0.01pp +0.01pp +0.01pp +0.01pp +0.01pp +0.01pp
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone +0.02pp +0.03pp -0.02pp +0.03pp +0.00pp -0.02pp +0.04pp
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children -0.03pp 0 -0.03pp 0 -0.03pp -0.13pp 0
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults +0.04pp +0.05pp +0.01pp +0.05pp +0.03pp +0.02pp +0.06pp
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners -0.02pp +0.00pp -0.13pp +0.00pp -0.05pp -0.00pp +0.00pp
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone +0.01pp +0.04pp +0.04pp -0.02pp +0.01pp -0.06pp -0.26pp
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children -0.04pp -0.02pp -0.02pp -0.19pp -0.03pp -0.25pp -0.46pp
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults +0.04pp +0.07pp +0.07pp +0.03pp +0.05pp -0.00pp -0.09pp
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners -0.01pp +0.01pp +0.00pp -0.00pp -0.06pp -0.03pp -0.66pp

People in poverty

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone +21.8k +22.0k +22.1k +23.5k +23.6k +23.7k +23.8k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults +21.3k +21.5k +21.6k +23.0k +23.1k +23.2k +23.3k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners +462 +515 +517 +519 +521 +524 +528
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone +33.7k +35.4k +37.3k +37.5k +38.5k +38.6k +41.8k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults +33.0k +34.6k +36.6k +36.7k +37.7k +37.9k +41.1k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners +701 +727 +730 +743 +752 +755 +759
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone +11.8k +23.0k -12.1k +24.5k +801 -12.5k +25.3k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children -4.0k 0 -3.8k 0 -4.8k -20.0k 0
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults +18.5k +22.5k +6.5k +24.0k +11.7k +7.7k +24.7k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners -2.7k +515 -14.8k +521 -6.1k -145 +528
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone +9.9k +28.6k +28.6k -17.2k +8.7k -43.3k -185.9k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children -5.4k -3.0k -3.1k -28.3k -4.6k -38.9k -70.9k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults +16.6k +30.8k +31.2k +11.5k +20.2k -819 -38.3k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners -1.4k +727 +509 -448 -6.9k -3.6k -76.7k

Inequality

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Gini coefficient, equivalised HBAI income before housing costs +0.0002 +0.0002 +0.0002 +0.0002 +0.0002 +0.0002 +0.0002

Mean household net income in each side's own deciles

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household +£2.19 † -£4.98 † -£13 † -£3.32 † -£14 † -£15 † -£13 †
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household -£55 † -£86 † -£69 † -£112 † -£75 † -£100 † -£185 †
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household -£161 † -£22 † -£7.60 † -£32 † -£7.75 † -£53 † +£40 †
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household -£574 † -£101 † -£0.92 † -£71 † -£115 † -£166 † -£112 †
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household +£260 † -£193 † -£338 † -£184 † -£198 † -£91 † -£105 †
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household -£92 † -£15 † -£137 † +£2.68 † -£34 † -£207 † -£22 †
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household +£42 † +£44 † +£210 † +£93 † -£184 † -£25 † -£217 †
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household +£452 † +£348 † +£215 † +£284 † +£167 † +£167 † +£668 †
Decile 9: mean household_net_income per household +£64 † +£74 † -£14 † +£123 † +£106 † +£156 † +£90 †
Decile 10: mean household_net_income per household +£66 † +£25 † +£36 † +£36 † +£38 † +£93 † +£94 †

Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance)

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp -£1 +£0 -£2 -£0 +£2 +£1 -£2
Raise higher rate by 1pp 0 0 0 -£0 0 0 0
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year +£0 -£4 +£0 +£5 +£2 +£2 +£5
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child 0 -£0 -£0 +£0 +£0 0 0
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20% -£1 -£7 -£12 -£0 -£0 +£1 +£4
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10% +£0 +£0 0 -£0 +£0 +£0 +£0
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp -£13 -£15 -£9 -£0 -£45 -£14 -£30
Raise additional rate by 3pp 0 -£0 +£0 -£0 +£0 0 -£0
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10% +£99,135 +£0.1m +£0.1m +£0.1m +£0.1m +£0.1m +£0.1m
Raise the State Pension by 10% +£1 -£1 -£1 +£0 -£0 +£2 -£0

Household net income by decile

Mean change in household net income per household, and as a share of the decile's base income; households stay in the base run's deciles.

Base decile 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Decile 1 0 fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change
Decile 2 fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change -£10 (-0.0%) -£10 (-0.0%) -£10 (-0.0%) -£10 (-0.0%)
Decile 3 -£4 (-0.0%) -£12 (-0.0%) -£12 (-0.0%) -£12 (-0.0%) -£12 (-0.0%) -£12 (-0.0%) -£13 (-0.0%)
Decile 4 -£23 (-0.1%) -£17 (-0.0%) -£18 (-0.0%) -£16 (-0.0%) -£17 (-0.0%) -£17 (-0.0%) -£17 (-0.0%)
Decile 5 -£47 (-0.1%) -£44 (-0.1%) -£45 (-0.1%) -£43 (-0.1%) -£44 (-0.1%) -£45 (-0.1%) -£60 (-0.1%)
Decile 6 -£36 (-0.1%) -£39 (-0.1%) -£38 (-0.1%) -£43 (-0.1%) -£43 (-0.1%) -£44 (-0.1%) -£31 (-0.1%)
Decile 7 -£76 (-0.1%) -£77 (-0.1%) -£80 (-0.1%) -£81 (-0.1%) -£79 (-0.1%) -£80 (-0.1%) -£86 (-0.1%)
Decile 8 -£188 (-0.3%) -£187 (-0.3%) -£191 (-0.3%) -£196 (-0.3%) -£182 (-0.2%) -£186 (-0.2%) -£208 (-0.3%)
Decile 9 fewer than 10 households change -£52 (-0.1%) -£54 (-0.1%) -£55 (-0.1%) -£78 (-0.1%) -£68 (-0.1%) -£47 (-0.1%)
Decile 10 fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change -£29 (-0.0%) -£30 (-0.0%)
all -£43 (-0.1%) -£44 (-0.1%) -£44 (-0.1%) -£45 (-0.1%) -£46 (-0.1%) -£47 (-0.1%) -£48 (-0.1%)
Year People gaining over £1 People losing over £1
2025-26 0.0% 0.2%
2026-27 0.0% 0.2%
2027-28 0.0% 0.2%
2028-29 0.0% 0.2%
2029-30 0.0% 0.2%
2030-31 0.0% 0.2%
2031-32 0.0% 0.2%

No change in any year: receipts by tax head; population; standard reforms: change in each reform's target.

Checks failing on both base and head (1)
  • VAT is never negative (sign:vat): 2025-26: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-54,797,972 in total; 2026-27: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-56,271,349 in total; 2027-28: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-57,609,146 in total
Counted-once check

Each of 84 components was raised by £1 per unit in 2026-27, and every head of its totals was read household by household: its own head must rise by exactly £1, no other tax head may move, no other benefit may rise, and the model's own total must move by what its heads moved. A head that breaks a rule is measured again twice: with every other head held at its baseline value, and with every other head held at its value after the first £1 while the component rises again. It fails where either still shows the response. 0 failed; 0 were skipped.

Provenance
Side Commit Runtime Environment hash Partition hash Time
base main a29f30a5d9 uk 2.147.2 (files 4fae93cfc3ac), core 3.33.2, py 3.13.17 aarch64 5c9a49667c9b d4c1e9f08160 1502.93s
head #2563 merged into main 93cc7e06ff uk 2.147.2 (files cd6224b11dd8), core 3.33.2, py 3.13.17 aarch64 5c9a49667c9b d4c1e9f08160 1520.75s

Dataset: hf://policyengine/policyengine-uk-data-private/enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5@2526edbbb687a3b54dbb11272e5389e4b62d2ac2, sha256 056e80fd8e9151d78f432a25cde863340baee81304c6216a37fb575ce8563784 (verified on both sides), policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1.

Receipts by tax head: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Income tax £299.29bn £319.01bn £336.47bn £351.62bn £367.17bn £385.29bn £403.59bn
National Insurance (employee and self-employed) £52.58bn £54.94bn £56.75bn £58.48bn £60.62bn £62.57bn £65.03bn
National Insurance (employer) £152.64bn £159.18bn £164.14bn £168.73bn £176.11bn £181.72bn £188.90bn
Employer NI change borne by capital £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Employer NI change borne by consumers £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Capital gains tax £12.62bn £13.06bn £13.55bn £14.04bn £14.54bn £15.09bn £15.65bn
Student loan repayments £7.83bn £8.12bn £8.35bn £8.56bn £8.79bn £9.04bn £9.38bn
VAT £253.71bn £260.53bn £266.72bn £273.14bn £279.83bn £286.71bn £293.71bn
Change in VAT from its baseline £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
VAT on private school fees £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Fuel duties £24.53bn £24.64bn £26.64bn £26.69bn £26.42bn £25.76bn £26.35bn
Alcohol duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Tobacco duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Vehicle excise duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
TV licence fee £4.28bn £4.43bn £4.44bn £4.46bn £4.48bn £4.51bn £4.53bn
Council tax £49.56bn £52.45bn £55.78bn £59.39bn £62.98bn £66.74bn £70.70bn
High value council tax surcharge £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.48bn £0.49bn £0.51bn £0.52bn
Northern Ireland domestic rates £0.55bn £0.58bn £0.61bn £0.63bn £0.67bn £0.70bn £0.73bn
Business rates £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn
Stamp duty land tax on the household's own purchases £6.93bn £7.42bn £7.85bn £8.26bn £8.68bn £9.09bn £9.51bn
Stamp duty land tax paid by companies £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn
Land transaction tax (Wales) £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Land and buildings transaction tax (Scotland) £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn
Unspecified tax change borne by capital £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Unspecified tax change borne by consumers £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Wealth tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Wealth tax excluding the main residence £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Land value tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Carbon tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Spending by benefit and service: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
State Pension £122.15bn £126.64bn £127.57bn £129.47bn £133.29bn £137.24bn £141.32bn
Pension Credit £6.68bn £7.07bn £7.06bn £7.13bn £7.26bn £7.39bn £7.49bn
Winter Fuel Payment £1.70bn £1.68bn £1.59bn £1.58bn £1.57bn £1.55bn £1.52bn
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland) £0.19bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.21bn £0.21bn £0.22bn £0.22bn
Universal Credit £75.54bn £80.75bn £82.55bn £84.28bn £85.26bn £86.64bn £87.92bn
Housing Benefit £8.59bn £8.93bn £9.19bn £9.34bn £9.61bn £9.87bn £10.15bn
Council Tax Reduction £1.99bn £2.03bn £2.08bn £2.13bn £2.18bn £2.23bn £2.29bn
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related) £0.79bn £0.81bn £0.83bn £0.85bn £0.87bn £0.89bn £0.91bn
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based) £5.22bn £5.36bn £5.49bn £5.62bn £5.76bn £5.90bn £6.04bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based) £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based) £0.29bn £0.30bn £0.30bn £0.31bn £0.32bn £0.33bn £0.33bn
Income Support £0.12bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Working Tax Credit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Child Tax Credit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Incapacity Benefit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Personal Independence Payment £27.05bn £28.19bn £28.94bn £29.64bn £30.37bn £31.11bn £31.87bn
Disability Living Allowance £7.52bn £7.83bn £8.04bn £8.24bn £8.44bn £8.65bn £8.86bn
Attendance Allowance £8.71bn £9.08bn £9.32bn £9.55bn £9.78bn £10.02bn £10.26bn
Carer's Allowance £4.50bn £4.69bn £4.81bn £4.93bn £5.05bn £5.17bn £5.29bn
Carer Support Payment (Scotland) £0.31bn £0.32bn £0.33bn £0.34bn £0.35bn £0.36bn £0.36bn
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland) £0.00bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn
Severe Disablement Allowance £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit £0.51bn £0.52bn £0.53bn £0.54bn £0.56bn £0.57bn £0.59bn
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme £0.61bn £0.62bn £0.64bn £0.65bn £0.67bn £0.69bn £0.70bn
War Widow's or Widower's Pension £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Child Benefit £16.23bn £16.91bn £17.32bn £17.73bn £18.16bn £18.60bn £19.04bn
Scottish Child Payment £0.50bn £0.52bn £0.53bn £0.55bn £0.56bn £0.57bn £0.58bn
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual) £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Healthy Start vouchers £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn
Maternity Allowance £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Statutory Maternity Pay £3.32bn £3.41bn £3.49bn £3.57bn £3.66bn £3.75bn £3.84bn
Statutory Paternity Pay £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Statutory Sick Pay £1.13bn £1.16bn £1.19bn £1.22bn £1.25bn £1.28bn £1.31bn
Sure Start Maternity Grant £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn
Bereavement Support Payment £0.67bn £0.69bn £0.70bn £0.72bn £0.74bn £0.76bn £0.78bn
Tax-Free Childcare £0.55bn £0.56bn £0.57bn £0.58bn £0.60bn £0.61bn £0.59bn
Extended childcare entitlement £2.69bn £3.18bn £3.26bn £3.33bn £3.42bn £3.51bn £3.60bn
Universal childcare entitlement £2.26bn £2.45bn £2.51bn £2.58bn £2.64bn £2.72bn £2.78bn
Targeted childcare entitlement £0.57bn £0.60bn £0.62bn £0.63bn £0.65bn £0.66bn £0.67bn
Care to Learn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Childcare Grant £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Parents' Learning Allowance £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn
Adult Dependants' Grant £0.06bn £0.06bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn
Travel Grant £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
NHS spending £204.68bn £205.46bn £206.22bn £207.04bn £207.96bn £208.89bn £209.79bn
State education spending £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn
Transport subsidy spending £25.15bn £25.25bn £25.34bn £25.44bn £25.55bn £25.67bn £25.78bn
Cost-of-living support payment £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Energy Bills Rebate £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Basic income £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Disability basic income £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Other public spending budget change £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Caseloads: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
State Pension 11,308k 11,208k 10,906k 10,812k 10,860k 10,908k 10,955k
Pension Credit 1,491k 1,489k 1,478k 1,459k 1,459k 1,457k 1,453k
Winter Fuel Payment 7,091k 7,011k 6,601k 6,517k 6,493k 6,381k 6,254k
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland) 806k 807k 807k 805k 809k 812k 816k
Universal Credit 6,361k 6,370k 6,402k 6,412k 6,386k 6,378k 6,363k
Housing Benefit 1,254k 1,252k 1,254k 1,240k 1,245k 1,247k 1,249k
Council Tax Reduction 3,187k 3,212k 3,225k 3,246k 3,265k 3,282k 3,294k
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related) 71k 71k 71k 72k 72k 72k 72k
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based) 722k 724k 727k 730k 733k 737k 740k
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based) 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based) 67k 67k 68k 68k 68k 69k 69k
Income Support 25k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Working Tax Credit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Child Tax Credit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Incapacity Benefit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Personal Independence Payment 3,581k 3,595k 3,608k 3,623k 3,639k 3,655k 3,671k
Disability Living Allowance 1,296k 1,301k 1,306k 1,311k 1,317k 1,323k 1,329k
Attendance Allowance 1,701k 1,708k 1,714k 1,721k 1,729k 1,736k 1,744k
Carer's Allowance 1,038k 1,042k 1,046k 1,050k 1,055k 1,059k 1,064k
Carer Support Payment (Scotland) 71k 72k 72k 72k 73k 73k 73k
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland) 0k 72k 72k 72k 73k 73k 73k
Severe Disablement Allowance 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit 137k 138k 139k 139k 140k 140k 141k
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme 94k 94k 94k 95k 95k 95k 96k
War Widow's or Widower's Pension 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Child Benefit 8,136k 8,165k 8,185k 8,215k 8,249k 8,282k 8,314k
Scottish Child Payment 352k 354k 355k 356k 357k 358k 357k
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual) 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Healthy Start vouchers 200k 201k 202k 203k 204k 204k 205k
Maternity Allowance 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Statutory Maternity Pay 334k 335k 336k 338k 339k 341k 342k
Statutory Paternity Pay 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Statutory Sick Pay 182k 183k 183k 184k 185k 186k 186k
Sure Start Maternity Grant 26k 26k 26k 27k 27k 27k 27k
Bereavement Support Payment 98k 98k 99k 99k 100k 100k 101k
Tax-Free Childcare 1,018k 1,029k 1,029k 1,033k 1,035k 1,039k 1,024k
Extended childcare entitlement 718k 724k 728k 732k 737k 741k 743k
Universal childcare entitlement 986k 989k 992k 997k 1,002k 1,013k 1,015k
Targeted childcare entitlement 119k 120k 120k 121k 121k 122k 121k
Care to Learn 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Childcare Grant 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Parents' Learning Allowance 98k 99k 99k 100k 100k 100k 101k
Adult Dependants' Grant 18k 18k 12k 13k 13k 13k 13k
Travel Grant 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Cost-of-living support payment 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Energy Bills Rebate 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Basic income 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Disability basic income 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Government balance, each component counted once: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Government receipts, each component once £899.38bn £939.24bn £976.18bn £1,009.38bn £1,045.66bn £1,082.60bn £1,123.48bn
Government spending £530.61bn † £545.62bn † £551.66bn † £558.61bn † £567.14bn † £576.26bn † £585.33bn †
Government balance, each receipt once £368.77bn † £393.62bn † £424.52bn † £450.78bn † £478.52bn † £506.34bn † £538.15bn †
Benefits in household_benefits but not in gov_spending £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Model totals: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
gov_tax £899.38bn £939.24bn £976.18bn £1,009.38bn £1,045.66bn £1,082.60bn £1,123.48bn
household_tax £493.03bn £519.53bn £545.32bn £567.51bn £589.72bn £614.17bn £640.87bn
pre_budget_change_household_tax £485.21bn £511.41bn £536.97bn £558.47bn £580.44bn £604.62bn £630.98bn
gov_spending £530.61bn † £545.62bn † £551.66bn † £558.61bn † £567.14bn † £576.26bn † £585.33bn †
household_benefits £530.61bn † £545.62bn † £551.66bn † £558.61bn † £567.14bn † £576.26bn † £585.33bn †
gov_balance £368.77bn † £393.62bn † £424.52bn † £450.78bn † £478.52bn † £506.34bn † £538.15bn †
Household income totals: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Household market income £1,657.06bn £1,719.25bn £1,771.68bn £1,821.99bn £1,872.88bn £1,930.99bn £2,001.98bn
Household net income £1,655.37bn † £1,704.58bn † £1,736.14bn † £1,770.15bn † £1,806.22bn † £1,847.74bn † £1,899.39bn †
Household net income (HBAI definition) £1,461.82bn £1,509.34bn £1,541.34bn £1,574.24bn £1,608.28bn £1,647.25bn £1,697.61bn
Population: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
People 69,514k 69,778k 70,036k 70,316k 70,626k 70,944k 71,249k
Benefit units 35,247k 35,381k 35,512k 35,654k 35,811k 35,972k 36,127k
Households 31,167k 31,285k 31,401k 31,526k 31,665k 31,808k 31,944k
Poverty rates: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone 16.2% 15.2% 15.7% 15.8% 15.9% 16.0% 16.0%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children 24.6% 21.4% 22.0% 21.9% 22.1% 22.3% 22.2%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 14.0% 13.6% 14.1% 14.2% 14.3% 14.5% 14.4%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 13.7% 13.2% 13.3% 13.5% 13.6% 13.7% 13.7%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone 21.6% 20.9% 21.6% 21.8% 22.2% 22.5% 22.6%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children 33.4% 30.9% 31.6% 31.8% 32.4% 32.9% 33.2%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 19.9% 19.7% 20.5% 20.7% 21.0% 21.3% 21.3%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 12.8% 12.6% 12.7% 13.1% 13.4% 13.4% 13.4%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone 17.3% 16.5% 16.6% 16.7% 16.4% 16.5% 16.7%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children 26.4% 23.7% 23.6% 23.6% 23.1% 23.2% 23.5%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 14.7% 14.4% 14.8% 14.9% 14.7% 14.9% 15.0%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 15.0% 14.8% 14.3% 14.3% 13.9% 14.0% 14.4%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone 21.7% 21.1% 21.4% 21.4% 21.5% 21.6% 21.8%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children 33.5% 31.3% 31.4% 31.1% 31.3% 31.2% 31.6%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 19.9% 19.9% 20.3% 20.4% 20.6% 20.6% 20.8%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 13.0% 12.7% 12.6% 12.3% 12.2% 12.2% 12.2%
People in poverty: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone 11,292k 10,600k 10,997k 11,101k 11,233k 11,363k 11,378k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children 3,696k 3,227k 3,332k 3,325k 3,371k 3,407k 3,408k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 5,962k 5,814k 6,137k 6,232k 6,304k 6,383k 6,391k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 1,634k 1,560k 1,528k 1,543k 1,558k 1,573k 1,579k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone 15,006k 14,575k 15,118k 15,350k 15,696k 15,957k 16,091k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children 5,005k 4,656k 4,776k 4,818k 4,933k 5,035k 5,098k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 8,478k 8,434k 8,885k 9,038k 9,229k 9,380k 9,441k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 1,522k 1,484k 1,457k 1,494k 1,534k 1,541k 1,552k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone 11,992k 11,508k 11,627k 11,723k 11,597k 11,717k 11,915k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children 3,963k 3,570k 3,574k 3,587k 3,526k 3,546k 3,616k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 6,246k 6,184k 6,408k 6,509k 6,480k 6,560k 6,640k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 1,782k 1,754k 1,645k 1,627k 1,591k 1,611k 1,659k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone 15,067k 14,733k 15,009k 15,053k 15,200k 15,293k 15,498k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children 5,019k 4,715k 4,748k 4,727k 4,770k 4,777k 4,866k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 8,497k 8,517k 8,816k 8,928k 9,037k 9,111k 9,217k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 1,551k 1,502k 1,446k 1,398k 1,392k 1,405k 1,414k
Inequality: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Gini coefficient, equivalised HBAI income before housing costs 0.3088 0.3062 0.3075 0.3082 0.3087 0.3093 0.3104
Mean household net income in each side's own deciles: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household £17,835 † £18,010 † £17,966 † £18,033 † £18,350 † £18,530 † £18,709 †
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household £28,080 † £29,007 † £28,675 † £29,051 † £29,359 † £29,898 † £30,257 †
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household £34,294 † £35,659 † £36,221 † £36,600 † £36,960 † £37,429 † £38,420 †
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household £38,824 † £40,941 † £41,969 † £42,642 † £43,164 † £43,858 † £44,437 †
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household £43,957 † £44,826 † £45,535 † £46,404 † £47,426 † £48,478 † £49,666 †
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household £48,402 † £49,760 † £50,795 † £51,703 † £52,116 † £53,262 † £54,348 †
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household £56,403 † £57,596 † £58,590 † £59,214 † £59,975 † £60,856 † £62,762 †
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household £69,269 † £70,751 † £71,947 † £73,125 † £74,588 † £75,961 † £78,242 †
Decile 9: mean household_net_income per household £79,799 † £82,161 † £83,265 † £84,700 † £86,250 † £87,812 † £90,815 †
Decile 10: mean household_net_income per household £117,839 † £120,664 † £122,603 † £124,729 † £126,978 † £129,301 † £132,118 †
Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance): head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp £6.22bn £6.50bn £6.70bn £6.90bn £7.11bn £7.34bn £7.62bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp £3.54bn £3.82bn £4.05bn £4.27bn £4.49bn £4.76bn £4.96bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year £-3.83bn £-3.96bn £-4.03bn £-4.10bn £-4.19bn £-4.30bn £-2.02bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child £-2.00bn £-1.76bn £-1.64bn £-1.54bn £-1.44bn £-1.34bn £-1.24bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20% £-20.49bn £-21.05bn £-21.40bn £-21.83bn £-21.91bn £-22.28bn £-22.73bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10% £11.07bn £11.51bn £11.84bn £12.14bn £12.48bn £12.82bn £13.29bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp £25.01bn £25.68bn £26.29bn £26.92bn £27.58bn £28.26bn £28.95bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp £2.83bn £3.07bn £3.27bn £3.47bn £3.67bn £3.91bn £4.23bn
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10% £-3.03bn £-3.16bn £-3.24bn £-3.32bn £-3.37bn £-3.42bn £-3.46bn
Raise the State Pension by 10% £-7.81bn £-8.07bn £-7.99bn £-8.11bn £-8.36bn £-8.66bn £-9.02bn
Standard reforms: change in each reform's target: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp: change in income_tax £6.36bn £6.65bn £6.86bn £7.07bn £7.28bn £7.52bn £7.80bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp: change in income_tax £3.55bn £3.83bn £4.06bn £4.28bn £4.50bn £4.77bn £4.97bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year: change in income_tax £-3.96bn £-4.10bn £-4.19bn £-4.26bn £-4.36bn £-4.47bn £-1.77bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child: change in child_benefit £2.34bn £2.15bn £2.03bn £1.92bn £1.82bn £1.71bn £1.59bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%: change in universal_credit £20.48bn £21.04bn £21.39bn £21.82bn £21.90bn £22.27bn £22.73bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%: change in national_insurance £11.33bn £11.79bn £12.13bn £12.44bn £12.78bn £13.13bn £13.62bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp: change in vat £25.01bn £25.68bn £26.29bn £26.92bn £27.58bn £28.26bn £28.95bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax £2.83bn £3.07bn £3.27bn £3.47bn £3.67bn £3.91bn £4.23bn
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%: change in universal_credit £3.03bn £3.16bn £3.24bn £3.32bn £3.37bn £3.43bn £3.47bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%: change in state_pension £10.72bn £11.23bn £11.37bn £11.62bn £12.08bn £12.54bn £13.07bn

@MaxGhenis @claude
Keep the Income Support ESA entry tests' family off Universal Credit
1abee5e 
The carer reports income-related ESA in some of these tests, and a UC
claim (would_claim_uc defaults to true) now ends it, so the family says
it does not claim UC. CI shards 1 and 5 failed on these six tests at
e9aec0d; all 20 pass locally.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis MaxGhenis mentioned this pull request Oct 22, 2026
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MaxGhenis marked this pull request as ready for review October 22, 2026 09:43
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MaxGhenis commented Oct 22, 2026

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Hand-off to the UK hub (sprint build for #1914)

  • Head: 1abee5ea0d78a6117da251485378cdb418bbff95 (branch fix-1914-esa-ir-uc-gate, on main 9d81a5d, merges cleanly).
  • Not self-reviewed and not merged. The hub dispatches the independent review at this head.

Tests

  • CI: all 16 checks pass at this head (Test / Result, the five Python shards, YAML, Lint, Fix evidence, Aggregate impact, docs and smoke imports). gh pr checks exits 0, and the PR is MERGEABLE. The first push (e9aec0d) failed six tests in test_income_support_esa_entered_directly.py; 1abee5e fixed that builder.
  • New tests, local: esa_income_universal_credit_claim.yaml passes 6/6. On an origin/main export, cases 1 and 3 to 6 fail on substance and the case 2 control passes. test_esa_income_universal_credit_claim_properties.py passes 2/2.
  • Existing tests, local: all 23 YAML files with an ESA(IR) report (385 cases) pass, as do the static code_health checks (2,354). ruff format --check (0.17.1) is clean, and check_fix_pr.py passes.
  • Edited tests. 84 YAML cases and the builders in ten Python test files now set would_claim_uc: false for legacy ESA claimants, since a default UC claim would now end their award. The benefit-cap reference is gated on the claim. 106/106 pass locally for the six files edited first (legacy readers, legacy work, closure scope, IS eligibility, IS gate, benefit cap); test_income_support_esa_entered_directly.py 20/20 locally; the other three edited files passed in CI at e9aec0d.

Impact: ESA(IR) spending falls £1.33bn in 2025-26, £1.39bn in 2027-28 and £1.53bn in 2031-32. The caseload falls by 116k to 119k benefit units. CTR rises by £0.3m to £0.8m; UC is unchanged. The government balance improves by £1.33bn to £1.53bn. Absolute poverty rises by 21k to 24k people BHC and 34k to 42k AHC. Source: the Aggregate impact comment (certified EFRS 1.58.1, base main 9d81a5d).

Open items

  1. Abolish income-related ESA from 1 July 2026 (NI 1 October 2026) #2562 (new) carries the 1 July 2026 abolition itself, after Abolish working-age Housing Benefit from 1 July 2026 (NI 1 October 2026) #1910 (held, d837).
  2. Still not modelled: UC's overlap with JSA(IB), IS and WTC, new style ESA as UC unearned income, and the two-week run-on.
  3. By-value reading. award_of_members reads a stored award by its value. An entered esa_income that equals the gated formula award on a non-dependant's report is now read as the formula's. This is pre-existing fragility that the gate makes reachable; see the winter heating test's builder change.
  4. Axiom: the ESA addendum is on Encode legacy award termination on a UC claim or migration deadline, with run-on and savings (PE parity: policyengine-uk#2119) TheAxiomFoundation/rulespec-uk#433 (queued).

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

@MaxGhenis @claude
Merge main into end-esa-ir-at-uc-claim; keep #2558's couple case off UC
a7292c8 
Main's #2558 added a Pension Credit earnings-disregard case whose couple's benefit unit doesn't set would_claim_uc, so under this PR the default UC claim ends the partner's income-related ESA (claimant_or_partner_esa_income 0, not 5,000). Set would_claim_uc: false on that benefit unit, as this PR already does in 84 other legacy cases (independent review B1).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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MaxGhenis added this pull request to the merge queue Oct 23, 2026
Merged via the queue into main with commit 8f43068 Oct 23, 2026
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MaxGhenis deleted the fix-1914-esa-ir-uc-gate branch October 23, 2026 08:45
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MaxGhenis commented Oct 23, 2026

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Merged by the UK hub (Claude session 8e19f9d5) at head a7292c82b, through the merge queue with the head pinned.

  • Independent review: GPT-6.1 Sol at 1abee5ea0: right in law, with every ESA(IR) reader gated, and an impact matching the PR.
    • A UC claim ends the claimant's and partner's ESA(IR) award from the first day claimed for, whether or not UC is awarded: SI 2013/983 art. 4(1), (3)(a) and (9), confirmed by SI 2025/1148 art. 3A(3). TP Regs reg 8 and 5(1) don't cover ESA(IR). SR 2017/190 art. 6 mirrors art. 4 for Northern Ireland.
    • Its one blocker (B1) was a test main added later (Read only the claimant's and partner's ESA in the Pension Credit earnings disregard #2558): a couple case without would_claim_uc. It said the PR becomes an APPROVE once CI re-runs green on the merged branch with the one-line fix.
  • Hub change: a7292c82b merges main and sets would_claim_uc: false on that case's benefit unit, as the PR already does in 84 other legacy cases.
  • CI: every check passes at this head.
  • Impact (PR body, CI Aggregate impact): ESA(IR) −£1.33bn (2025-26) to −£1.53bn (2031-32), about −116k benefit units; government balance up by the same amount. CTR +£0.3m to £0.8m; UC unchanged. Absolute poverty rises by 21k–24k before housing costs and 34k–42k after.

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Abolish income-related ESA from 1 July 2026 (NI 1 October 2026) and stop paying it alongside UC

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