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Grow council tax bills by receipts growth net of household weight growth - #2566

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fix-2067-council-tax-growth
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Grow council tax bills by receipts growth net of household weight growth#2566
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fix-2067-council-tax-growth

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@MaxGhenis MaxGhenis commented Oct 22, 2026 •
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Fixes #2067.

Problem

Projected council tax counted the growth in households twice.

  • uprate_council_tax (policyengine_uk/data/economic_assumptions.py) multiplied each household's council_tax by 1 + gov.economic_assumptions.yoy_growth.obr.council_tax.<country>.
  • Since the March 2026 refresh (Update remaining OBR forecasts to March 2026 detailed tables #1514), that series holds 2025-2030 growth in each country's council tax receipts, from OBR's March 2026 EFO Expenditure Table 4.1. England's 2025 value is 44.1172 / 41.2225 − 1 = 0.0702.
  • Receipts already grow with the number of homes. The same table splits England's 2025-26 growth into 5.03% for the council tax level and 1.90% for the council tax base.
  • household_weight is projected separately, by gov.economic_assumptions.yoy_growth.ons.population (policyengine_uk/data/uprating_indices.yaml).

So each country's weighted total grew by (1 + receipts growth)(1 + population growth), outrunning OBR's receipts by population growth: 0.72% in 2025-26 and 0.37-0.45% a year after, 2.8% by 2030-31 in all three countries.

The series used to mean something else. #1225 defined it as growth "in the level (adjusted for household growth)", and #1246 filled 2023-2025 with Band D level outturns, so bills grew by the level alone. #1514 put receipts growth into 2025-2030 without changing the code. 2023 and 2024 still held Band D level growth.

The law and the sources

  • A dwelling's bill is a proportion of its authority's Band D amount. Bands A to H pay 6:7:8:9:11:13:15:18 (Local Government Finance Act 1992 s. 5(1)).
  • The Band D ("basic") amount is the council tax requirement divided by the council tax base. In England it is R / T, where R is the requirement and T the tax base (s. 31B(1)). MHCLG describes the tax base as "the number of Band D equivalent dwellings", which "accounts for any reductions due to discounts, exemptions or local council tax support schemes" (Council Tax levels set by local authorities in England 2025 to 2026).
  • So receipts are the level times the base, and OBR's Table 4.1 shows each country's receipts with that split.

The projection keeps every household and scales all weights by population. A dwelling's own bill grows with its Band D amount. But the tax base can grow faster or slower than population, through new homes per person, premiums on second homes, and changes in discounts and council tax reduction. In this model that difference has to go into the bills. Growing bills by the level alone would undershoot receipts whenever the base outgrows population: in 2025-26 England's base grew 1.90% against population growth of 0.72%. Growing them by receipts growth divided by population growth puts the difference into bills, and each country's total then tracks its receipts.

The fix

  1. uprate_council_tax grows each bill by (1 + receipts growth) / (1 + growth in household weights). The weights' series is the one uprating_indices.yaml lists household_weight under, found by the new household_weight_growth_path(), so the two cannot drift apart. Northern Ireland has no council tax series and stays flat, as before.
  2. The 2023 and 2024 values become receipts outturns, so every year of the series means the same thing. Each is the growth in the liability behind that country's OBR line, net of council tax reduction, from one official release:
Country Source 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2023 old → new 2024 old → new
England MHCLG council tax requirement incl. adult social care and parish precepts (2025-26 release, Table 1) £36,313.2m £38,718.3m £41,222.4m 0.051 → 0.0662 0.051 → 0.0647
Scotland Net amount billed, after CTR, excl. water and sewerage (Council Tax Collection Statistics 2024-25, Figure 1) £2,825.6m £3,005.8m £3,076.8m 0.052 → 0.0638 0.001 → 0.0236
Wales Net collectable debit, net of CTRS (collection rates releases 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25, Table 2) £1,981.6m £2,122.1m £2,331.6m 0.058 → 0.0709 0.077 → 0.0987

These match OBR's own lines:

  • England: OBR's 2024-25 outturn of £41.2225bn is the MHCLG requirement. MHCLG's 2025-26 requirement grows 7.02%, OBR's 2025 value.
  • Scotland: OBR's 2024-25 outturn of £2.9384bn is the £2,938.4m of that year's bills received by 31 March 2025.
  • Wales: OBR's 2024-25 outturn of £2.2284bn is the £2,228.0m collected in-year.

I used amounts due, not collected, so changes in in-year collection rates do not move the series. Without this restatement the division would cut bills in years that held level growth: Scotland's 2024 value of 0.001 divided by 1.0107 would lower every Scottish bill by 1%.

2025-2030 (OBR's forecasts) are unchanged.

Before and after

One £1,000 bill, 2024-25 to 2025-26:

Main This PR
London £1,070.20 £1,062.55 (= 1,000 × 1.0702 / 1.0072)
Wales £1,077.30 £1,069.60
Scotland £1,038.40 £1,030.98
Northern Ireland £1,000 £1,000

Country totals against OBR receipts: synthetic weights, 2024-25 to 2030-31, from test_country_totals_track_obr_receipts.

OBR receipts 2030-31 / 2024-25 Main This PR
England 1.41555 +2.79% +0.003%
Scotland 1.25371 +2.79% −0.002%
Wales 1.54200 +2.76% −0.028%

The remaining gap is the series' rounding to 4 decimals, and Wales held at 0.0743 from 2026 where Table 4.1 implies 0.0743 to 0.0744.

Certified dataset: from the Aggregate impact report (run).

  • Comparison: base 6c0feb303a (main, the merge commit's first parent) against head d5f0315f83 (the merge commit), on enhanced_frs_2024_25 (uk-data 1.58.1).
  • Checks: 0 broken by this change, 1 failing on both sides, 0 fixed.
2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Council tax (= gov_tax, household_tax) −£354.3m −£572.1m −£811.8m −£1.10bn −£1.43bn −£1.81bn −£2.21bn
Council Tax Reduction −£5.1m −£8.3m −£11.7m −£15.6m −£20.5m −£26.0m −£31.7m
gov_balance −£349.1m −£563.8m −£800.0m −£1.08bn −£1.41bn −£1.79bn −£2.18bn
HBAI household net income +£347.4m +£560.9m +£795.9m +£1.08bn +£1.41bn +£1.78bn +£2.17bn
Absolute poverty BHC, everyone −0.18pp −0.02pp −0.01pp −0.02pp −0.06pp −0.08pp −0.11pp

Council tax falls by the computed ratio: base £49.56bn × (1 − 1/1.0072) = £354m in 2025-26, and base £66.74bn × 2.72% = £1.81bn in 2030-31. 2024-25 is the dataset's base year and is unchanged. The report flags 97 moves for review; the largest are these council tax and balance lines and decile re-rankings.

Invariants

For any households in any regions, with any council tax of zero or more and any positive weights, any base year from 2022 and every projected year:

  1. Each country's weighted council tax total grows by that country's receipts growth. Unknown regions count with England.
  2. Each bill grows by its country's receipts growth divided by one plus the growth of household weights, whatever the other rows hold.
  3. Northern Ireland bills stay flat, so its weighted total grows with the weights alone.
  4. Scaling every previous-year bill by k scales every result by k.
  5. The 2023 and 2024 values equal the growth in the published liabilities, rounded to 4 decimals. England's 2025 value also equals MHCLG's 2025-26 requirement growth.

Tests

policyengine_uk/tests/test_council_tax_uprating.py:

  • test_uprate_council_tax_holds_northern_ireland_flat, test_uprate_council_tax_gives_unknown_region_england_growth and test_scottish_bills_grow_with_the_amount_billed_in_2024_25: hand-computed cases from the published figures.
  • test_council_tax_growth_matches_published_outturns[...] (7 cases): a differential test against the MHCLG, Scottish Government and Welsh Government figures, embedded in the test (invariant 5).
  • test_country_totals_track_obr_receipts: a differential test against OBR Table 4.1 receipts, using synthetic weights.
  • test_each_country_total_grows_by_its_receipts_growth: Hypothesis, invariants 1-3, through extend_single_year_dataset.
  • test_uprate_council_tax_properties: Hypothesis, invariants 2-4.
  • test_household_weight_growth_path_* (3).
  • The projection and Microsimulation tests, updated to the new growth.

policyengine_uk/tests/test_projection_horizon.py: test_rent_and_council_tax_grow_every_projected_year now expects the new growth.

On origin/main (9d81a5d, a git archive export with the new test file copied in, household_weight_growth_path stubbed since main has none, Hypothesis shrinking off): 17 of the 21 fail. The 4 that pass there are the three unrecognised-region checks (behaviour this PR keeps) and test_council_tax_growth_matches_published_outturns[england-2025] (OBR's 2025 value is unchanged; the test shows it is also MHCLG's 2025-26 requirement growth).

No YAML cases. YAML policy tests cannot reach this code. policyengine-core's runner builds each case from its input with SimulationBuilder().build_from_dict (policyengine_core/tools/test_runner.py), and its TEST_KEYWORDS has no dataset key. A situation is never projected: _projects_data in simulation.py returns False whenever a situation is given. The hand-computed expectations are in the pytest cases above.

On this branch (local, -n 2, ruff 0.17.0):

  • test_council_tax_uprating.py: 21 passed.
  • test_projection_horizon.py: 14 passed.
  • Dataset and uprating tests (test_no_economic_assumptions, test_uprating_inputs_reach_data, test_dataset_group_order, test_simulation_dataset_sources, test_rent_uprating, test_domestic_rates_uprating, test_water_uprating, test_residential_property_uprating): 104 passed.
  • Parameter and declaration tests (test_parameter_metadata, test_parameter_descriptions, test_fiscal_year_parameters, test_import_obr_forecasts, test_scenario_sum_timing, test_dataset_fiscal_year, code_health/test_uprating_declarations, code_health/test_input_variable_definitions): 117 passed.
  • Council tax YAML (policy/baseline/gov/local_authorities/council_tax, .../council_tax_reduction, .../hmrc/council_tax, consumption/council_tax_less_benefit.yaml, reforms/parametric/hbai_council_tax_lvt.yaml): 299 passed.
  • ruff format --check . and ruff check on the changed files: clean.

Interactions checked

  • Compute gross council tax from LA Band D amounts and statutory band ratios #1855 (simulated_council_tax, gross council tax from LA Band D): no other variable reads simulated_council_tax. gov_tax, household_tax, council tax reduction and net income read the dataset's council_tax, which this PR projects. Compute gross council tax from LA Band D amounts and statutory band ratios #1855's Band D amounts are parameters by year and do not pass through dataset projection, so this PR leaves them unchanged.
  • HVCTS: high_value_council_tax_surcharge reads main_residence_value, tenure_type, country and the house price index, not council_tax. It is unaffected, apart from sitting in the same totals.
  • Council tax reduction: CTR's maximum eligible liability is council_tax (council_tax_reduction_maximum_eligible_liability), so simulated CTR awards can fall with the bills.
  • policyengine-uk-data: does not use this series. Its uprate_dataset reads storage/uprating_factors.csv, which has no council_tax row.
  • Microcosm (the Budget data): the UK release is a UKSingleYearDataset for 2024, so policyengine-uk projects it and this PR reaches Budget-year council tax. Microcosm also fits obr.council_tax_{england,scotland,wales} targets at its 2025 solve year, and divides the solved weights by policyengine-uk's own weight projection (uk_runtime/weight_year.py). Its engine pins vendor only the household_weight growth, not council tax growth. I did not trace how Microcosm computes solve-year council tax for those targets, so whether a cut built before this PR then sits about 0.7% below its 2025-26 council tax targets is an open item for the Microcosm owners.
  • Base years: the certified dataset (enhanced_frs_2024_25) and Microcosm UK 2024-25 start in 2024, so only the 2025-2030 change reaches them. The 2023 and 2024 restatement matters for datasets that start in 2022 or 2023.

Not in this PR

  • Wales 2026-2030 is held flat at 0.0743, while Table 4.1 implies 0.0743 to 0.0744. This is pre-existing, and worth under 0.03% by 2030-31.
  • The dataset's council_tax is gross liability, and is grown by the growth in receipts net of CTR. This assumes CTR's share of the gross stays constant.

Reproducer: policyengine_uk/tests/test_council_tax_uprating.py::test_country_totals_track_obr_receipts, policyengine_uk/tests/test_council_tax_uprating.py::test_each_country_total_grows_by_its_receipts_growth, policyengine_uk/tests/test_council_tax_uprating.py::test_council_tax_growth_matches_published_outturns

axiom: n/a: dataset projection code and economic-assumption data, no policy rule changes

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

@MaxGhenis @claude
Grow council tax bills by receipts growth net of household weight growth
ed1a7ec 
Each country's council tax series is OBR receipts growth, which already
includes growth in the number of Band D equivalent dwellings, while
household weights grow with population too. Divide each bill's growth by
the growth of the series uprating_indices.yaml projects household_weight
with, so each country's weighted total tracks its receipts (#2067).

Restate the 2023 and 2024 values, which held Band D level growth, as
receipts outturns: MHCLG's council tax requirement (England), the
Scottish Government's net amount billed and the Welsh Government's net
collectable debit, each net of council tax reduction.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis

MaxGhenis commented Oct 22, 2026

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Hand-off to the UK hub (sprint-fix-2067 build job)

Head: ed1a7ecc31f07817289449778b797a72070cb202, one commit on origin/main 9d81a5d. git merge-tree against main at 6c0feb3 is clean. Still a draft: the job brief says to mark it ready once CI is green, and the job's time ran out first.

CI at 09:54Z: Lint, Fix evidence, Test / YAML, Documentation build, Test documentation builds, Changes, and Install + smoke-import on 3.11 to 3.14 have passed. Test / Python 1/5 to 5/5 and Aggregate impact are in progress.

Local tests (all pass, -n 2, ruff 0.17.0):

  • test_council_tax_uprating.py: 21 tests. 17 of them fail on a main export, and the 4 that pass there are expected to (see body).
  • test_projection_horizon.py: 14.
  • Dataset and uprating tests: 104.
  • Parameter and declaration tests: 117.
  • Council tax YAML: 299.
  • ruff format --check .: clean.

Impact:

  • Computed, deterministic: on a dataset that starts in 2024 (the certified enhanced_frs_2024_25 and Microcosm UK 2024-25), council_tax in every Great Britain household falls against main by 0.71% in 2025-26. The fall compounds with population growth: 1.09% in 2026-27, 2.28% in 2029-30, 2.72% in 2030-31 and 3.54% in 2032-33. 2024-25 is unchanged, and so are Northern Ireland households. Each country's weighted total then tracks OBR Table 4.1 receipts within 0.03% to 2030-31.
  • Pending: the effect on gov_tax, CTR and net income waits for the Aggregate impact report, which is still running. Please quote it into the body.

Open items:

  1. When CI is green, mark the PR ready and quote the Aggregate impact report into the body. The body has a line waiting for it under "Before and after".
  2. Microcosm: it fits obr.council_tax_{england,scotland,wales} at its 2025 solve year. Whether a cut built before this PR sits about 0.7% below those targets once projected under this PR depends on how Microcosm computes council tax for the solve year, which I did not trace. Worth passing to the Budget coordinator with the impact.
  3. Nit, pre-existing: Wales 2026-2030 is held at 0.0743, while Table 4.1 implies 0.0743 to 0.0744.

No in-job review was run, per the adopt-common rule. Not merged.

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github-actions Bot commented Oct 22, 2026

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Aggregate impact on certified data: pass

Base 6c0feb303a against head d5f0315f83, both on enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5 (policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1, sha256 056e80fd8e91), fiscal years 2025-26 to 2031-32. Each year is a full microsimulation run on each side.

Checks: 0 broken by this change, 1 failing on both sides, 0 fixed. Moves flagged for review: 97 (thresholds in report_spec.yaml; a flag does not fail the job).

Workflow run and full report

Notes

  • In the years a figure from fewer than 10 records is suppressed (spending.disabled_students_allowance), every total containing it, and the decile incomes, are rebuilt from their other components, so no published total includes it. Those totals are marked †. A change is withheld where the two sides leave out different figures and can't be lined up.

Moves flagged for review

Measure Year Base Head Change
Council tax 2031-32 £70.70bn £68.49bn -£2.21bn
Council tax 2030-31 £66.74bn £64.92bn -£1.81bn
Council tax 2029-30 £62.98bn £61.55bn -£1.43bn
Council tax 2028-29 £59.39bn £58.29bn -£1.10bn
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household 2030-31 £53,447 £53,009 -£439
Council tax 2027-28 £55.78bn £54.97bn -£811.8m
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household 2030-31 £60,810 £61,256 +£447
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 2031-32 1,491k 1,443k -47.6k
Council tax 2026-27 £52.45bn £51.88bn -£572.1m
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children 2025-26 24.6% 24.2% -0.44pp
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 2031-32 12.9% 12.5% -0.41pp
Government balance, each receipt once 2031-32 £535.36bn £533.18bn -£2.18bn
gov_balance 2031-32 £538.49bn £536.31bn -£2.18bn
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children 2025-26 3,696k 3,629k -66.6k
Government balance, each receipt once 2030-31 £503.61bn £501.83bn -£1.79bn
Council tax 2025-26 £49.56bn £49.21bn -£354.3m
gov_balance 2030-31 £506.74bn £504.96bn -£1.79bn
pre_budget_change_household_tax 2031-32 £634.11bn £631.89bn -£2.21bn
household_tax 2031-32 £644.01bn £641.79bn -£2.21bn
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household 2029-30 £29,403 £29,504 +£101
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household 2031-32 £77,535 £77,801 +£266
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household 2031-32 £18,682 £18,738 +£56
pre_budget_change_household_tax 2030-31 £607.75bn £605.94bn -£1.81bn
Government balance, each receipt once 2029-30 £475.87bn £474.45bn -£1.41bn
gov_balance 2029-30 £479.00bn £477.58bn -£1.41bn
household_tax 2030-31 £617.30bn £615.48bn -£1.81bn
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household 2030-31 £37,462 £37,569 +£107
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household 2031-32 £38,358 £38,466 +£108
pre_budget_change_household_tax 2029-30 £583.57bn £582.13bn -£1.43bn
household_tax 2029-30 £592.85bn £591.41bn -£1.43bn
Government balance, each receipt once 2028-29 £448.18bn £447.10bn -£1.08bn
gov_balance 2028-29 £451.31bn £450.23bn -£1.08bn
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone 2025-26 11,270k 11,141k -128.5k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 2031-32 1,659k 1,640k -18.8k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children 2031-32 22.2% 21.9% -0.22pp
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household 2030-31 £18,504 £18,544 +£40
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household 2031-32 £62,906 £62,779 -£127
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 2025-26 5,940k 5,881k -59.4k
Government receipts, each component once 2031-32 £1,123.48bn £1,121.27bn -£2.21bn
gov_tax 2031-32 £1,126.61bn £1,124.40bn -£2.21bn

57 more flags are in the report artifact.

Receipts by tax head

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Council tax -£354.3m -£572.1m -£811.8m -£1.10bn -£1.43bn -£1.81bn -£2.21bn

Spending by benefit and service

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Council Tax Reduction -£5.1m -£8.3m -£11.7m -£15.6m -£20.5m -£26.0m -£31.7m
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed

Caseloads

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Council Tax Reduction -418 -249 -749 -1.2k -2.8k -577 -84
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed

Government balance, each component counted once

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Government receipts, each component once -£354.3m -£572.1m -£811.8m -£1.10bn -£1.43bn -£1.81bn -£2.21bn
Government spending -£5.1m † -£8.3m † -£11.7m † -£15.6m † -£20.5m † -£26.0m † -£31.7m †
Government balance, each receipt once -£349.1m † -£563.8m † -£800.0m † -£1.08bn † -£1.41bn † -£1.79bn † -£2.18bn †

Model totals

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
gov_tax -£354.3m -£572.1m -£811.8m -£1.10bn -£1.43bn -£1.81bn -£2.21bn
household_tax -£354.3m -£572.1m -£811.8m -£1.10bn -£1.43bn -£1.81bn -£2.21bn
pre_budget_change_household_tax -£354.3m -£572.1m -£811.8m -£1.10bn -£1.43bn -£1.81bn -£2.21bn
gov_spending -£5.1m † -£8.3m † -£11.7m † -£15.6m † -£20.5m † -£26.0m † -£31.7m †
household_benefits -£5.1m † -£8.3m † -£11.7m † -£15.6m † -£20.5m † -£26.0m † -£31.7m †
gov_balance -£349.1m † -£563.8m † -£800.0m † -£1.08bn † -£1.41bn † -£1.79bn † -£2.18bn †

Household income totals

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Household net income +£349.1m † +£563.8m † +£800.0m † +£1.08bn † +£1.41bn † +£1.79bn † +£2.18bn †
Household net income (HBAI definition) +£347.4m +£560.9m +£795.9m +£1.08bn +£1.41bn +£1.78bn +£2.17bn

Poverty rates

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone -0.18pp -0.02pp -0.01pp -0.02pp -0.06pp -0.08pp -0.11pp
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children -0.44pp -0.04pp -0.01pp -0.02pp -0.08pp -0.08pp -0.22pp
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults -0.14pp -0.02pp -0.01pp -0.01pp -0.05pp -0.08pp -0.07pp
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners -0.02pp -0.03pp -0.03pp -0.08pp -0.07pp -0.10pp -0.12pp
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone -0.01pp -0.00pp -0.02pp -0.04pp -0.07pp -0.05pp -0.08pp
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children -0.01pp -0.00pp -0.00pp -0.03pp -0.11pp -0.06pp -0.14pp
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults -0.01pp -0.01pp -0.02pp -0.03pp -0.05pp -0.05pp -0.07pp
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners -0.02pp -0.00pp -0.02pp -0.09pp -0.09pp -0.02pp -0.03pp
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone -0.00pp +0.00pp -0.01pp -0.01pp -0.00pp -0.00pp -0.02pp
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children 0 0 -0.02pp -0.01pp -0.00pp -0.00pp +0.02pp
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults -0.00pp +0.00pp -0.01pp -0.01pp -0.00pp +0.01pp +0.00pp
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners +0.00pp -0.01pp -0.02pp -0.02pp -0.01pp -0.03pp -0.16pp
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone -0.01pp -0.00pp -0.00pp -0.06pp -0.03pp -0.03pp -0.04pp
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children -0.01pp 0 0 -0.17pp -0.01pp -0.02pp +0.13pp
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults -0.02pp -0.00pp -0.00pp -0.04pp -0.03pp -0.03pp -0.00pp
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners -0.00pp -0.00pp -0.02pp +0.00pp -0.08pp -0.05pp -0.41pp

People in poverty

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone -128.5k -16.9k -9.0k -15.9k -42.0k -59.9k -78.2k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children -66.6k -6.1k -1.4k -2.9k -12.4k -12.2k -33.3k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults -59.4k -7.5k -4.4k -3.9k -21.8k -36.4k -31.2k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners -2.5k -3.3k -3.2k -9.2k -7.8k -11.3k -13.7k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone -5.9k -3.0k -13.2k -29.5k -48.1k -34.1k -58.3k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children -1.8k -304 -640 -5.3k -16.3k -8.8k -22.2k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults -2.3k -2.2k -10.6k -13.9k -21.6k -23.1k -32.5k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners -1.8k -551 -2.0k -10.3k -10.2k -2.3k -3.6k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone -47 +652 -9.9k -8.5k -2.7k -29 -14.8k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children 0 0 -3.0k -1.7k -203 -94 +3.0k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults -48 +1.8k -5.0k -4.2k -1.9k +3.6k +1.0k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners +0 -1.1k -1.9k -2.7k -657 -3.6k -18.8k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone -9.8k -1.8k -3.2k -44.9k -23.7k -23.3k -28.4k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children -799 0 0 -26.1k -2.1k -3.4k +19.9k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults -8.7k -1.6k -1.5k -18.9k -12.8k -14.0k -795
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners -352 -160 -1.8k +130 -8.8k -5.9k -47.6k

Inequality

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Gini coefficient, equivalised HBAI income before housing costs -0.0001 -0.0001 -0.0001 -0.0001 -0.0002 -0.0002 -0.0003

Mean household net income in each side's own deciles

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household +£12 † +£7.94 † +£18 † +£26 † +£35 † +£40 † +£56 †
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household +£6.92 † +£14 † +£19 † +£27 † +£101 † -£7.22 † -£12 †
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household +£8.16 † +£22 † +£25 † +£5.09 † -£12 † +£107 † +£108 †
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household +£8.10 † +£7.45 † +£14 † +£56 † +£51 † -£5.08 † +£85 †
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household +£11 † +£15 † +£23 † +£45 † +£50 † +£34 † +£56 †
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household +£12 † +£16 † +£32 † +£11 † +£20 † -£439 † +£51 †
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household +£7.07 † +£18 † +£17 † +£34 † +£66 † +£447 † -£127 †
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household +£14 † +£23 † +£23 † +£77 † +£60 † +£71 † +£266 †
Decile 9: mean household_net_income per household +£12 † +£27 † +£33 † +£5.74 † -£21 † +£83 † +£82 †
Decile 10: mean household_net_income per household +£13 † +£17 † +£33 † +£43 † +£23 † +£49 † +£175 †

Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance)

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp -£590 +£5,319 +£12,019 +£46,101 +£88,994 +£6,278 +£2,984
Raise higher rate by 1pp +£315 +£491 +£1,820 -£2,472 -£793 -£1,469 -£1,525
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year -£18,213 -£35,632 -£27,846 -£29,736 -£94,559 -£57,135 -£2,282
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child -£21 +£427 +£159 +£1 -£359 +£25 -£448
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20% -£24,521 -£39,193 -£55,430 -£75,347 -£98,233 -£0.1m -£0.2m
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10% +£104 +£3,742 +£1,437 -£649 +£918 -£2,313 +£1,088
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp -£1,574 +£1,418 +£1,978 -£439 -£219 -£1,504 +£1,257
Raise additional rate by 3pp +£42 -£113 +£540 -£656 -£201 -£781 +£1,746
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10% -£7,057 -£42,385 -£71,774 -£0.1m -£0.1m -£0.1m -£94,271
Raise the State Pension by 10% -£0.1m -£0.2m -£0.3m -£0.4m -£0.6m -£0.9m -£1.2m

Household net income by decile

Mean change in household net income per household, and as a share of the decile's base income; households stay in the base run's deciles.

Base decile 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Decile 1 +£9 (+0.1%) +£15 (+0.1%) +£21 (+0.1%) +£28 (+0.2%) +£36 (+0.2%) +£46 (+0.2%) +£55 (+0.3%)
Decile 2 +£10 (+0.0%) +£16 (+0.1%) +£22 (+0.1%) +£30 (+0.1%) +£39 (+0.1%) +£49 (+0.2%) +£60 (+0.2%)
Decile 3 +£10 (+0.0%) +£15 (+0.0%) +£22 (+0.1%) +£29 (+0.1%) +£38 (+0.1%) +£48 (+0.1%) +£59 (+0.2%)
Decile 4 +£10 (+0.0%) +£16 (+0.0%) +£24 (+0.1%) +£32 (+0.1%) +£41 (+0.1%) +£51 (+0.1%) +£63 (+0.1%)
Decile 5 +£10 (+0.0%) +£16 (+0.0%) +£23 (+0.1%) +£31 (+0.1%) +£41 (+0.1%) +£51 (+0.1%) +£62 (+0.1%)
Decile 6 +£11 (+0.0%) +£17 (+0.0%) +£24 (+0.0%) +£33 (+0.1%) +£43 (+0.1%) +£55 (+0.1%) +£66 (+0.1%)
Decile 7 +£11 (+0.0%) +£18 (+0.0%) +£26 (+0.0%) +£35 (+0.1%) +£45 (+0.1%) +£56 (+0.1%) +£70 (+0.1%)
Decile 8 +£13 (+0.0%) +£20 (+0.0%) +£29 (+0.0%) +£39 (+0.1%) +£51 (+0.1%) +£64 (+0.1%) +£77 (+0.1%)
Decile 9 +£14 (+0.0%) +£23 (+0.0%) +£32 (+0.0%) +£44 (+0.1%) +£57 (+0.1%) +£72 (+0.1%) +£86 (+0.1%)
Decile 10 +£14 (+0.0%) +£23 (+0.0%) +£33 (+0.0%) +£44 (+0.0%) +£57 (+0.0%) +£71 (+0.1%) +£89 (+0.1%)
all +£11 (+0.0%) +£18 (+0.0%) +£25 (+0.0%) +£34 (+0.1%) +£45 (+0.1%) +£56 (+0.1%) +£68 (+0.1%)
Year People gaining over £1 People losing over £1
2025-26 90.4% 0.0%
2026-27 90.4% 0.0%
2027-28 90.4% 0.0%
2028-29 90.4% 0.0%
2029-30 90.4% 0.0%
2030-31 90.4% 0.0%
2031-32 90.4% 0.0%

No change in any year: components the model counts twice; population; standard reforms: change in each reform's target.

Checks failing on both base and head (1)
  • VAT is never negative (sign:vat): 2025-26: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-54,797,972 in total; 2026-27: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-56,271,349 in total; 2027-28: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-57,609,146 in total
Counted-once check

Each of 84 components was raised by £1 per unit in 2026-27, and every head of its totals was read household by household: its own head must rise by exactly £1, no other tax head may move, no other benefit may rise, and the model's own total must move by what its heads moved. A head that breaks a rule is measured again twice: with every other head held at its baseline value, and with every other head held at its value after the first £1 while the component rises again. It fails where either still shows the response. 0 failed; 0 were skipped.

Provenance
Side Commit Runtime Environment hash Partition hash Time
base main 6c0feb303a uk 2.146.3 (files cb65e488316c), core 3.33.2, py 3.13.17 aarch64 9d34a6d30859 f210f83d5be4 1495.86s
head #2566 merged into main d5f0315f83 uk 2.146.3 (files f5acecf94dd4), core 3.33.2, py 3.13.17 aarch64 9d34a6d30859 f210f83d5be4 1501.19s

Dataset: hf://policyengine/policyengine-uk-data-private/enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5@2526edbbb687a3b54dbb11272e5389e4b62d2ac2, sha256 056e80fd8e9151d78f432a25cde863340baee81304c6216a37fb575ce8563784 (verified on both sides), policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1.

Receipts by tax head: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Income tax £299.29bn £319.01bn £336.47bn £351.62bn £367.17bn £385.29bn £403.59bn
National Insurance (employee and self-employed) £52.58bn £54.94bn £56.75bn £58.48bn £60.62bn £62.57bn £65.03bn
National Insurance (employer) £152.64bn £159.18bn £164.14bn £168.73bn £176.11bn £181.72bn £188.90bn
Employer NI change borne by capital £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Employer NI change borne by consumers £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Capital gains tax £12.62bn £13.06bn £13.55bn £14.04bn £14.54bn £15.09bn £15.65bn
Student loan repayments £7.83bn £8.12bn £8.35bn £8.56bn £8.79bn £9.04bn £9.38bn
VAT £253.71bn £260.53bn £266.72bn £273.14bn £279.83bn £286.71bn £293.71bn
Change in VAT from its baseline £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
VAT on private school fees £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Fuel duties £24.53bn £24.64bn £26.64bn £26.69bn £26.42bn £25.76bn £26.35bn
Alcohol duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Tobacco duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Vehicle excise duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
TV licence fee £4.28bn £4.43bn £4.44bn £4.46bn £4.48bn £4.51bn £4.53bn
Council tax £49.21bn £51.88bn £54.97bn £58.29bn £61.55bn £64.92bn £68.49bn
High value council tax surcharge £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.48bn £0.49bn £0.51bn £0.52bn
Northern Ireland domestic rates £0.55bn £0.58bn £0.61bn £0.63bn £0.67bn £0.70bn £0.73bn
Business rates £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn
Stamp duty land tax (own purchases, and corporate until the £10.06bn £10.56bn £10.98bn £11.40bn £11.81bn £12.23bn £12.64bn
Land transaction tax (Wales) £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Land and buildings transaction tax (Scotland) £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn
Unspecified tax change borne by capital £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Unspecified tax change borne by consumers £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Wealth tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Wealth tax excluding the main residence £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Land value tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Carbon tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Spending by benefit and service: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
State Pension £122.15bn £126.64bn £127.57bn £129.47bn £133.29bn £137.24bn £141.32bn
Pension Credit £6.68bn £7.07bn £7.06bn £7.13bn £7.26bn £7.39bn £7.49bn
Winter Fuel Payment £1.70bn £1.68bn £1.59bn £1.58bn £1.57bn £1.55bn £1.52bn
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland) £0.19bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.21bn £0.21bn £0.22bn £0.22bn
Universal Credit £75.54bn £80.75bn £82.55bn £84.28bn £85.26bn £86.64bn £87.92bn
Housing Benefit £8.59bn £8.93bn £9.19bn £9.34bn £9.61bn £9.87bn £10.15bn
Council Tax Reduction £1.98bn £2.02bn £2.07bn £2.11bn £2.16bn £2.21bn £2.25bn
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related) £2.12bn £2.18bn £2.23bn £2.28bn £2.33bn £2.39bn £2.45bn
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based) £5.22bn £5.36bn £5.49bn £5.62bn £5.76bn £5.90bn £6.04bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based) £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based) £0.29bn £0.30bn £0.30bn £0.31bn £0.32bn £0.33bn £0.33bn
Income Support £0.12bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Working Tax Credit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Child Tax Credit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Incapacity Benefit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Personal Independence Payment £27.05bn £28.19bn £28.94bn £29.64bn £30.37bn £31.11bn £31.87bn
Disability Living Allowance £7.52bn £7.83bn £8.04bn £8.24bn £8.44bn £8.65bn £8.86bn
Attendance Allowance £8.71bn £9.08bn £9.32bn £9.55bn £9.78bn £10.02bn £10.26bn
Carer's Allowance £4.50bn £4.69bn £4.81bn £4.93bn £5.05bn £5.17bn £5.29bn
Carer Support Payment (Scotland) £0.31bn £0.32bn £0.33bn £0.34bn £0.35bn £0.36bn £0.36bn
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland) £0.00bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn
Severe Disablement Allowance £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit £0.51bn £0.52bn £0.53bn £0.54bn £0.56bn £0.57bn £0.59bn
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme £0.61bn £0.62bn £0.64bn £0.65bn £0.67bn £0.69bn £0.70bn
War Widow's or Widower's Pension £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Child Benefit £16.23bn £16.91bn £17.32bn £17.73bn £18.16bn £18.60bn £19.04bn
Scottish Child Payment £0.50bn £0.52bn £0.53bn £0.55bn £0.56bn £0.57bn £0.58bn
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual) £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Healthy Start vouchers £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn
Maternity Allowance £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Statutory Maternity Pay £3.32bn £3.41bn £3.49bn £3.57bn £3.66bn £3.75bn £3.84bn
Statutory Paternity Pay £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Statutory Sick Pay £1.13bn £1.16bn £1.19bn £1.22bn £1.25bn £1.28bn £1.31bn
Sure Start Maternity Grant £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn
Bereavement Support Payment £0.67bn £0.69bn £0.70bn £0.72bn £0.74bn £0.76bn £0.78bn
Tax-Free Childcare £0.55bn £0.56bn £0.57bn £0.58bn £0.60bn £0.61bn £0.59bn
Extended childcare entitlement £2.66bn £3.14bn £3.23bn £3.30bn £3.38bn £3.47bn £3.55bn
Universal childcare entitlement £3.32bn £3.59bn £3.69bn £3.78bn £3.88bn £3.99bn £4.08bn
Targeted childcare entitlement £0.57bn £0.60bn £0.62bn £0.63bn £0.65bn £0.66bn £0.67bn
Care to Learn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Childcare Grant £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Parents' Learning Allowance £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn
Adult Dependants' Grant £0.06bn £0.06bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn
Travel Grant £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
NHS spending £204.68bn £205.46bn £206.22bn £207.04bn £207.96bn £208.89bn £209.79bn
State education spending £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn
Transport subsidy spending £25.15bn £25.25bn £25.34bn £25.44bn £25.55bn £25.67bn £25.78bn
Cost-of-living support payment £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Energy Bills Rebate £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Basic income £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Disability basic income £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Other public spending budget change £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Caseloads: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
State Pension 11,308k 11,208k 10,906k 10,812k 10,860k 10,908k 10,955k
Pension Credit 1,491k 1,489k 1,478k 1,459k 1,459k 1,457k 1,453k
Winter Fuel Payment 7,091k 7,011k 6,601k 6,517k 6,493k 6,381k 6,254k
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland) 806k 807k 807k 805k 809k 812k 816k
Universal Credit 6,361k 6,370k 6,402k 6,412k 6,386k 6,378k 6,363k
Housing Benefit 1,254k 1,252k 1,254k 1,240k 1,245k 1,247k 1,249k
Council Tax Reduction 3,186k 3,211k 3,224k 3,244k 3,261k 3,280k 3,293k
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related) 187k 188k 188k 189k 190k 190k 191k
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based) 722k 724k 727k 730k 733k 737k 740k
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based) 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based) 67k 67k 68k 68k 68k 69k 69k
Income Support 25k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Working Tax Credit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Child Tax Credit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Incapacity Benefit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Personal Independence Payment 3,581k 3,595k 3,608k 3,623k 3,639k 3,655k 3,671k
Disability Living Allowance 1,296k 1,301k 1,306k 1,311k 1,317k 1,323k 1,329k
Attendance Allowance 1,701k 1,708k 1,714k 1,721k 1,729k 1,736k 1,744k
Carer's Allowance 1,038k 1,042k 1,046k 1,050k 1,055k 1,059k 1,064k
Carer Support Payment (Scotland) 71k 72k 72k 72k 73k 73k 73k
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland) 0k 72k 72k 72k 73k 73k 73k
Severe Disablement Allowance 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit 137k 138k 139k 139k 140k 140k 141k
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme 94k 94k 94k 95k 95k 95k 96k
War Widow's or Widower's Pension 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Child Benefit 8,136k 8,165k 8,185k 8,215k 8,249k 8,282k 8,314k
Scottish Child Payment 352k 354k 355k 356k 357k 358k 357k
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual) 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Healthy Start vouchers 200k 201k 202k 203k 204k 204k 205k
Maternity Allowance 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Statutory Maternity Pay 334k 335k 336k 338k 339k 341k 342k
Statutory Paternity Pay 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Statutory Sick Pay 182k 183k 183k 184k 185k 186k 186k
Sure Start Maternity Grant 26k 26k 26k 27k 27k 27k 27k
Bereavement Support Payment 98k 98k 99k 99k 100k 100k 101k
Tax-Free Childcare 1,018k 1,029k 1,029k 1,033k 1,035k 1,039k 1,024k
Extended childcare entitlement 665k 671k 675k 677k 682k 686k 687k
Universal childcare entitlement 986k 989k 992k 997k 1,002k 1,013k 1,015k
Targeted childcare entitlement 119k 120k 120k 121k 121k 122k 121k
Care to Learn 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Childcare Grant 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Parents' Learning Allowance 98k 99k 99k 100k 100k 100k 101k
Adult Dependants' Grant 18k 18k 12k 13k 13k 13k 13k
Travel Grant 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Cost-of-living support payment 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Energy Bills Rebate 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Basic income 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Disability basic income 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Government balance, each component counted once: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Government receipts, each component once £899.03bn £938.67bn £975.37bn £1,008.29bn £1,044.23bn £1,080.79bn £1,121.27bn
Government spending £532.96bn † £548.09bn † £554.18bn † £561.19bn † £569.77bn † £578.97bn † £588.08bn †
Government balance, each receipt once £366.07bn † £390.59bn † £421.19bn † £447.10bn † £474.45bn † £501.83bn † £533.18bn †
Benefits in household_benefits but not in gov_spending £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Model totals: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
gov_tax £902.16bn £941.80bn £978.50bn £1,011.42bn £1,047.36bn £1,083.92bn £1,124.40bn
household_tax £495.81bn £522.09bn £547.64bn £569.54bn £591.41bn £615.48bn £641.79bn
pre_budget_change_household_tax £487.98bn £513.97bn £539.29bn £560.50bn £582.13bn £605.94bn £631.89bn
gov_spending £532.96bn † £548.09bn † £554.18bn † £561.19bn † £569.77bn † £578.97bn † £588.08bn †
household_benefits £532.96bn † £548.09bn † £554.18bn † £561.19bn † £569.77bn † £578.97bn † £588.08bn †
gov_balance £369.20bn † £393.72bn † £424.32bn † £450.23bn † £477.58bn † £504.96bn † £536.31bn †
Components the model counts twice: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
corporate_sdlt, counted again inside expected_sdlt £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn
Household income totals: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Household market income £1,657.06bn £1,719.25bn £1,771.68bn £1,821.99bn £1,872.88bn £1,930.99bn £2,001.98bn
Household net income £1,654.94bn † £1,704.49bn † £1,736.34bn † £1,770.69bn † £1,807.16bn † £1,849.13bn † £1,901.23bn †
Household net income (HBAI definition) £1,463.50bn £1,511.27bn £1,543.53bn £1,576.75bn £1,611.14bn £1,650.52bn £1,701.31bn
Population: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
People 69,514k 69,778k 70,036k 70,316k 70,626k 70,944k 71,249k
Benefit units 35,247k 35,381k 35,512k 35,654k 35,811k 35,972k 36,127k
Households 31,167k 31,285k 31,401k 31,526k 31,665k 31,808k 31,944k
Poverty rates: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone 16.0% 15.1% 15.7% 15.7% 15.8% 15.9% 15.8%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children 24.2% 21.4% 22.0% 21.9% 22.0% 22.2% 21.9%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 13.8% 13.5% 14.1% 14.2% 14.2% 14.3% 14.3%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 13.7% 13.2% 13.2% 13.5% 13.5% 13.6% 13.6%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone 21.5% 20.8% 21.5% 21.7% 22.1% 22.4% 22.4%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children 33.4% 30.9% 31.6% 31.7% 32.3% 32.8% 33.0%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 19.8% 19.6% 20.4% 20.5% 20.9% 21.1% 21.1%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 12.7% 12.5% 12.6% 13.0% 13.3% 13.4% 13.4%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone 17.2% 16.5% 16.6% 16.6% 16.4% 16.5% 16.7%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children 26.4% 23.7% 23.7% 23.6% 23.2% 23.3% 23.5%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 14.6% 14.4% 14.7% 14.8% 14.7% 14.9% 14.9%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 15.0% 14.8% 14.4% 14.2% 13.9% 14.0% 14.2%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone 21.6% 21.1% 21.4% 21.4% 21.5% 21.6% 22.0%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children 33.5% 31.3% 31.4% 31.2% 31.3% 31.4% 32.2%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 19.9% 19.8% 20.2% 20.3% 20.5% 20.6% 20.9%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 13.0% 12.7% 12.5% 12.3% 12.1% 12.2% 12.5%
People in poverty: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone 11,141k 10,561k 10,965k 11,061k 11,168k 11,279k 11,276k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children 3,629k 3,221k 3,330k 3,322k 3,358k 3,395k 3,375k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 5,881k 5,785k 6,111k 6,205k 6,259k 6,323k 6,336k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 1,631k 1,556k 1,524k 1,534k 1,550k 1,561k 1,565k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone 14,966k 14,536k 15,067k 15,283k 15,609k 15,884k 15,990k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children 5,004k 4,656k 4,776k 4,813k 4,917k 5,026k 5,076k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 8,443k 8,397k 8,838k 8,987k 9,169k 9,319k 9,367k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 1,520k 1,483k 1,454k 1,483k 1,523k 1,538k 1,547k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone 11,980k 11,486k 11,629k 11,690k 11,594k 11,730k 11,875k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children 3,967k 3,570k 3,575k 3,585k 3,531k 3,566k 3,619k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 6,227k 6,163k 6,396k 6,481k 6,466k 6,556k 6,617k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 1,785k 1,752k 1,658k 1,624k 1,596k 1,608k 1,640k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone 15,047k 14,703k 14,978k 15,026k 15,167k 15,313k 15,655k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children 5,023k 4,718k 4,751k 4,729k 4,772k 4,813k 4,957k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 8,471k 8,484k 8,783k 8,898k 9,004k 9,098k 9,255k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 1,552k 1,501k 1,444k 1,399k 1,391k 1,402k 1,443k
Inequality: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Gini coefficient, equivalised HBAI income before housing costs 0.3086 0.3059 0.3073 0.3079 0.3083 0.3089 0.3099
Mean household net income in each side's own deciles: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household £17,824 † £17,994 † £17,953 † £18,019 † £18,357 † £18,544 † £18,738 †
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household £28,106 † £29,077 † £28,731 † £29,159 † £29,504 † £29,966 † £30,406 †
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household £34,437 † £35,679 † £36,235 † £36,619 † £36,938 † £37,569 † £38,466 †
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household £39,344 † £40,993 † £41,943 † £42,732 † £43,296 † £43,985 † £44,607 †
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household £43,634 † £44,956 † £45,820 † £46,556 † £47,597 † £48,526 † £49,745 †
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household £48,450 † £49,742 † £50,917 † £51,673 † £52,132 † £53,009 † £54,404 †
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household £56,307 † £57,511 † £58,342 † £59,097 † £60,168 † £61,256 † £62,779 †
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household £68,775 † £70,378 † £71,708 † £72,871 † £74,437 † £75,824 † £77,801 †
Decile 9: mean household_net_income per household £79,651 † £82,021 † £83,221 † £84,488 † £86,031 † £87,648 † £90,723 †
Decile 10: mean household_net_income per household £117,599 † £120,475 † £122,421 † £124,562 † £126,792 † £129,089 † £132,027 †
Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance): head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp £6.22bn £6.50bn £6.70bn £6.90bn £7.11bn £7.34bn £7.62bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp £3.54bn £3.82bn £4.05bn £4.27bn £4.49bn £4.76bn £4.96bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year £-3.83bn £-3.96bn £-4.03bn £-4.10bn £-4.19bn £-4.30bn £-2.02bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child £-2.00bn £-1.76bn £-1.64bn £-1.54bn £-1.44bn £-1.34bn £-1.24bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20% £-20.49bn £-21.05bn £-21.40bn £-21.83bn £-21.91bn £-22.28bn £-22.73bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10% £11.07bn £11.51bn £11.84bn £12.14bn £12.48bn £12.82bn £13.29bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp £25.01bn £25.68bn £26.29bn £26.92bn £27.58bn £28.26bn £28.95bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp £2.83bn £3.07bn £3.27bn £3.47bn £3.67bn £3.91bn £4.23bn
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10% £-3.03bn £-3.16bn £-3.24bn £-3.32bn £-3.37bn £-3.42bn £-3.46bn
Raise the State Pension by 10% £-7.81bn £-8.07bn £-7.99bn £-8.11bn £-8.37bn £-8.66bn £-9.02bn
Standard reforms: change in each reform's target: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp: change in income_tax £6.36bn £6.65bn £6.86bn £7.07bn £7.28bn £7.52bn £7.80bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp: change in income_tax £3.55bn £3.83bn £4.06bn £4.28bn £4.50bn £4.77bn £4.97bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year: change in income_tax £-3.96bn £-4.10bn £-4.19bn £-4.26bn £-4.36bn £-4.47bn £-1.77bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child: change in child_benefit £2.34bn £2.15bn £2.03bn £1.92bn £1.82bn £1.71bn £1.59bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%: change in universal_credit £20.48bn £21.04bn £21.39bn £21.82bn £21.90bn £22.27bn £22.73bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%: change in national_insurance £11.33bn £11.79bn £12.13bn £12.44bn £12.78bn £13.13bn £13.62bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp: change in vat £25.01bn £25.68bn £26.29bn £26.92bn £27.58bn £28.26bn £28.95bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax £2.83bn £3.07bn £3.27bn £3.47bn £3.67bn £3.91bn £4.23bn
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%: change in universal_credit £3.03bn £3.16bn £3.24bn £3.32bn £3.37bn £3.43bn £3.47bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%: change in state_pension £10.72bn £11.23bn £11.37bn £11.62bn £12.08bn £12.54bn £13.07bn

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MaxGhenis commented Oct 22, 2026

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Follow-up to the hand-off: the Aggregate impact report has finished and passed. It found 0 checks broken by this change and 1 failing on both sides. It compares main at 6c0feb3 with the merge commit. I quoted it in the body under "Before and after".

  • Council tax (= gov_tax): −£354.3m in 2025-26, −£1.81bn in 2030-31 and −£2.21bn in 2031-32. This is the computed 0.71% to 3.1% fall on base totals.
  • CTR: −£5.1m to −£31.7m.
  • gov_balance: −£349.1m to −£2.18bn.

Only the Python test shards are still running; the job ends before they finish. Please mark the PR ready once they pass.

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MaxGhenis marked this pull request as ready for review October 22, 2026 17:08
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MaxGhenis added this pull request to the merge queue Oct 22, 2026
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github-merge-queue Bot removed this pull request from the merge queue due to failed status checks Oct 22, 2026
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MaxGhenis added this pull request to the merge queue Oct 23, 2026
Merged via the queue into main with commit 080cf28 Oct 23, 2026
19 checks passed
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MaxGhenis deleted the fix-2067-council-tax-growth branch October 23, 2026 12:07
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MaxGhenis commented Oct 23, 2026

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Merged by the UK hub (Claude session 8e19f9d5) at head ed1a7ecc3, through the merge queue with the head pinned.

  • Independent review: GPT-6.1 Sol, APPROVE at this exact head, with no blocking findings.
    • It verified that bills × (1+r)/(1+w) times weights × (1+w) grows each GB country's council tax total by the OBR receipts rate. Against OBR Table 4.1, the 2030-31 factors are within 0.03%.
    • It checked the six restated 2023 and 2024 growth rates against MHCLG, Scottish Government and Welsh Government statistics.
    • It found no double adjustment with Compute gross council tax from LA Band D amounts and statutory band ratios #1855.
    • Local checks: 387 passed (council tax uprating and projection tests, 299 council tax YAML cases, CTR and HVCTS cases).
  • CI: all 17 checks pass at this head.
  • Impact (Aggregate impact report): council tax −£354.3m in 2025-26, −£1.81bn in 2030-31 and −£2.21bn in 2031-32; government balance −£349.1m, −£1.79bn and −£2.18bn. Bills were growing by receipts growth on top of household weight growth, which overstated council tax by 2.8% by 2030-31.

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Council tax projection may double-count tax base growth

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@MaxGhenis