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Calculate Childcare Grant from eligible children’s costs - #2585

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@juaristi22 juaristi22 commented Oct 22, 2026 •

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Fixes #1931

Calculate Childcare Grant from the nonnegative childcare expenses recorded on eligible dependent children in the benefit unit. Apply the existing coverage rate and one-/two-plus-child family cap after aggregation. For an eligible student with one child's annual costs of £5,000, the model now returns £4,250; the previous formula read zero costs on the student and returned £0.

Pay the family award once, allocating it to the eldest eligible student parent. This is a model allocation convention: actual eligible student partners can share the award under SI 2011/1986 regulation 47(5) and SFE guidance §5.15. Variable documentation and program metadata describe that convention. Existing eligibility proxies, coverage rates, caps and annual 52-week treatment remain in place.

The cap and income-limit child count retains every age-eligible dependent child in the benefit unit, including children with no childcare expenses. This preserves the existing dependent-child interpretation; SLC guidance describes an application-based count of children needing childcare, which the model does not distinguish.

The linked follow-up tracks the missing income taper, the residual-income measure, academic-year/effective-date treatment and the upper-limit boundary. It records the child-count practice question separately, including the guidance's temporary zero-charge exception. These are existing limitations outside the child-cost aggregation fix.

The new regressions cover adult/ineligible-child costs, negative child costs, two eligible parents, asymmetric parent eligibility, member ordering, separate benefit units and the final household benefit/spending totals. Four existing positive grant cases now put their costs on the children and retain their expected awards.

Reproducer: policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/gov/dfe/childcare_grant/childcare_grant.yaml

Validation: the original regressions first reproduced the defect (12 failed, 10 passed); after the formula fix, one focused batch passed 55 items (51 YAML, 4 Python), with 0 failures or skips. Those results are retained for the subsequent documentation-only review follow-up: the module AST excluding the documentation attribute is unchanged, and no model tests were rerun for those four lines. One subsequent whole-repository make format passed (1,943 files unchanged; Ruff checks pass). Full/population suites and documentation build were not run locally; upstream CI will run its applicable checks. No private dataset or encoder run was used.

axiom: TheAxiomFoundation/rulespec-uk#365 queued

The existing parity queue was extended with exact reg45(5)/regulation 47(5) text, module/corpus targets and independently sourced companion cases. Corpus PR #765 remains unmerged and the provision endpoint unavailable; a signed encoder run also requires separate approval.

@juaristi22 juaristi22 self-assigned this Oct 22, 2026
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Aggregate impact on certified data: pass

Base 55cd7fb04b against head bc132c8ef4, both on enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5 (policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1, sha256 056e80fd8e91), fiscal years 2025-26 to 2031-32. Each year is a full microsimulation run on each side.

Checks: 0 broken by this change, 1 failing on both sides, 0 fixed. Moves flagged for review: 0 (thresholds in report_spec.yaml; a flag does not fail the job).

Workflow run and full report

Notes

  • In the years a figure from fewer than 10 records is suppressed (spending.disabled_students_allowance), every total containing it, and the decile incomes, are rebuilt from their other components, so no published total includes it. Those totals are marked †. A change is withheld where the two sides leave out different figures and can't be lined up.

Moves flagged for review

None.

Spending by benefit and service

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed

Caseloads

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed

Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance)

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise additional rate by 3pp 0 0 0 0 0 suppressed suppressed

Standard reforms: change in each reform's target

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax 0 0 0 0 0 suppressed suppressed

Household net income by decile

No household's net income changes in any year.

No change in any year: receipts by tax head; government balance, each component counted once; model totals; household income totals; population; poverty rates; people in poverty; inequality; mean household net income in each side's own deciles.

Checks failing on both base and head (1)
  • VAT is never negative (sign:vat): 2025-26: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-54,797,972 in total; 2026-27: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-56,271,349 in total; 2027-28: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-57,609,146 in total
Counted-once check

Each of 84 components was raised by £1 per unit in 2026-27, and every head of its totals was read household by household: its own head must rise by exactly £1, no other tax head may move, no other benefit may rise, and the model's own total must move by what its heads moved. A head that breaks a rule is measured again twice: with every other head held at its baseline value, and with every other head held at its value after the first £1 while the component rises again. It fails where either still shows the response. 0 failed; 0 were skipped.

Provenance
Side Commit Runtime Environment hash Partition hash Time
base main 55cd7fb04b uk 2.148.5 (files ceb0c292cc4a), core 3.33.2, py 3.13.17 aarch64 c2bcb36ae6e8 d4c1e9f08160 1542.08s
head #2585 merged into main bc132c8ef4 uk 2.148.5 (files 39b05ae39713), core 3.33.2, py 3.13.17 aarch64 c2bcb36ae6e8 d4c1e9f08160 1580.38s

Dataset: hf://policyengine/policyengine-uk-data-private/enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5@2526edbbb687a3b54dbb11272e5389e4b62d2ac2, sha256 056e80fd8e9151d78f432a25cde863340baee81304c6216a37fb575ce8563784 (verified on both sides), policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1.

Receipts by tax head: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Income tax £299.29bn £319.01bn £336.54bn £351.69bn £367.24bn £385.36bn £403.66bn
National Insurance (employee and self-employed) £52.58bn £54.94bn £56.75bn £58.48bn £60.62bn £62.57bn £65.03bn
National Insurance (employer) £152.64bn £159.18bn £164.14bn £168.73bn £176.11bn £181.72bn £188.90bn
Employer NI change borne by capital £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Employer NI change borne by consumers £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Capital gains tax £12.62bn £13.06bn £13.55bn £14.04bn £14.54bn £15.09bn £15.65bn
Student loan repayments £7.83bn £8.12bn £8.35bn £8.56bn £8.79bn £9.04bn £9.38bn
VAT £253.71bn £260.53bn £266.72bn £273.14bn £279.83bn £286.71bn £293.71bn
Change in VAT from its baseline £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
VAT on private school fees £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Fuel duties £24.53bn £24.64bn £26.64bn £26.69bn £26.42bn £25.76bn £26.35bn
Alcohol duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Tobacco duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Vehicle excise duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
TV licence fee £4.28bn £4.43bn £4.44bn £4.46bn £4.48bn £4.51bn £4.53bn
Council tax £49.21bn £51.88bn £54.97bn £58.29bn £61.55bn £64.92bn £68.49bn
High value council tax surcharge £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.48bn £0.49bn £0.51bn £0.52bn
Northern Ireland domestic rates £0.55bn £0.58bn £0.61bn £0.63bn £0.67bn £0.70bn £0.73bn
Business rates £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn
Stamp duty land tax on the household's own purchases £6.93bn £7.42bn £7.85bn £8.26bn £8.68bn £9.09bn £9.51bn
Stamp duty land tax paid by companies £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn
Land transaction tax (Wales) £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Land and buildings transaction tax (Scotland) £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn
Unspecified tax change borne by capital £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Unspecified tax change borne by consumers £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Wealth tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Wealth tax excluding the main residence £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Land value tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Carbon tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Spending by benefit and service: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
State Pension £122.15bn £126.64bn £127.76bn £129.65bn £133.46bn £137.40bn £141.47bn
Pension Credit £6.68bn £7.07bn £7.09bn £7.16bn £7.28bn £7.42bn £7.52bn
Winter Fuel Payment £1.70bn £1.68bn £1.59bn £1.57bn £1.57bn £1.55bn £1.52bn
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland) £0.19bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.21bn £0.21bn £0.22bn £0.22bn
Universal Credit £75.54bn £80.75bn £83.40bn £85.21bn £86.21bn £87.61bn £88.91bn
Housing Benefit £8.59bn £8.93bn £9.19bn £9.33bn £9.61bn £9.87bn £10.15bn
Council Tax Reduction £1.98bn £2.03bn £2.07bn £2.11bn £2.16bn £2.21bn £2.25bn
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related) £0.79bn £0.81bn £0.83bn £0.85bn £0.87bn £0.89bn £0.91bn
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based) £5.22bn £5.36bn £5.49bn £5.62bn £5.76bn £5.90bn £6.04bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based) £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based) £0.29bn £0.30bn £0.30bn £0.31bn £0.32bn £0.33bn £0.33bn
Income Support £0.12bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Working Tax Credit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Child Tax Credit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Incapacity Benefit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Personal Independence Payment £27.05bn £28.19bn £29.28bn £30.02bn £30.75bn £31.51bn £32.28bn
Disability Living Allowance £7.52bn £7.83bn £8.14bn £8.34bn £8.55bn £8.76bn £8.97bn
Attendance Allowance £8.71bn £9.08bn £9.43bn £9.67bn £9.90bn £10.15bn £10.40bn
Carer's Allowance £4.50bn £4.69bn £4.87bn £4.99bn £5.11bn £5.23bn £5.36bn
Carer Support Payment (Scotland) £0.31bn £0.32bn £0.34bn £0.34bn £0.35bn £0.36bn £0.37bn
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland) £0.00bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn
Severe Disablement Allowance £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit £0.51bn £0.52bn £0.53bn £0.54bn £0.56bn £0.57bn £0.59bn
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme £0.61bn £0.62bn £0.64bn £0.65bn £0.67bn £0.69bn £0.70bn
War Widow's or Widower's Pension £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Child Benefit £16.23bn £16.91bn £17.53bn £17.96bn £18.39bn £18.84bn £19.29bn
Scottish Child Payment £0.50bn £0.52bn £0.53bn £0.55bn £0.56bn £0.57bn £0.58bn
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual) £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Healthy Start vouchers £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn
Maternity Allowance £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Statutory Maternity Pay £3.32bn £3.41bn £3.49bn £3.57bn £3.66bn £3.75bn £3.84bn
Statutory Paternity Pay £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Statutory Sick Pay £1.13bn £1.16bn £1.19bn £1.22bn £1.25bn £1.28bn £1.31bn
Sure Start Maternity Grant £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn
Bereavement Support Payment £0.67bn £0.69bn £0.70bn £0.72bn £0.74bn £0.76bn £0.78bn
Tax-Free Childcare £0.55bn £0.56bn £0.57bn £0.58bn £0.60bn £0.61bn £0.59bn
Extended childcare entitlement £2.77bn £3.27bn £3.36bn £3.43bn £3.53bn £3.61bn £3.70bn
Universal childcare entitlement £2.26bn £2.45bn £2.51bn £2.58bn £2.64bn £2.72bn £2.78bn
Targeted childcare entitlement £0.47bn £0.49bn £0.50bn £0.51bn £0.52bn £0.53bn £0.47bn
Care to Learn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Childcare Grant £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Parents' Learning Allowance £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn
Adult Dependants' Grant £0.06bn £0.06bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn
Travel Grant £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
NHS spending £204.68bn £205.46bn £206.22bn £207.04bn £207.96bn £208.89bn £209.79bn
State education spending £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn
Transport subsidy spending £25.15bn £25.25bn £25.34bn £25.44bn £25.55bn £25.67bn £25.78bn
Cost-of-living support payment £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Energy Bills Rebate £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Basic income £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Disability basic income £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Other public spending budget change £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Caseloads: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
State Pension 11,308k 11,208k 10,906k 10,812k 10,860k 10,908k 10,955k
Pension Credit 1,491k 1,489k 1,478k 1,459k 1,459k 1,456k 1,453k
Winter Fuel Payment 7,091k 7,011k 6,599k 6,512k 6,493k 6,379k 6,248k
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland) 806k 807k 807k 805k 809k 812k 816k
Universal Credit 6,361k 6,370k 6,404k 6,419k 6,390k 6,387k 6,368k
Housing Benefit 1,254k 1,252k 1,254k 1,239k 1,245k 1,247k 1,249k
Council Tax Reduction 3,187k 3,212k 3,224k 3,245k 3,262k 3,280k 3,294k
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related) 71k 71k 71k 72k 72k 72k 72k
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based) 722k 724k 727k 730k 733k 737k 740k
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based) 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based) 67k 67k 68k 68k 68k 69k 69k
Income Support 25k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Working Tax Credit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Child Tax Credit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Incapacity Benefit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Personal Independence Payment 3,581k 3,595k 3,608k 3,623k 3,639k 3,655k 3,671k
Disability Living Allowance 1,296k 1,301k 1,306k 1,311k 1,317k 1,323k 1,329k
Attendance Allowance 1,701k 1,708k 1,714k 1,721k 1,729k 1,736k 1,744k
Carer's Allowance 1,038k 1,042k 1,046k 1,050k 1,055k 1,059k 1,064k
Carer Support Payment (Scotland) 71k 72k 72k 72k 73k 73k 73k
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland) 0k 72k 72k 72k 73k 73k 73k
Severe Disablement Allowance 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit 137k 138k 139k 139k 140k 140k 141k
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme 94k 94k 94k 95k 95k 95k 96k
War Widow's or Widower's Pension 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Child Benefit 8,136k 8,165k 8,185k 8,215k 8,249k 8,282k 8,314k
Scottish Child Payment 352k 354k 355k 359k 357k 358k 357k
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual) 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Healthy Start vouchers 200k 201k 202k 203k 204k 204k 205k
Maternity Allowance 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Statutory Maternity Pay 334k 335k 336k 338k 339k 341k 342k
Statutory Paternity Pay 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Statutory Sick Pay 182k 183k 183k 184k 185k 186k 186k
Sure Start Maternity Grant 26k 26k 26k 27k 27k 27k 27k
Bereavement Support Payment 98k 98k 99k 99k 100k 100k 101k
Tax-Free Childcare 1,018k 1,029k 1,028k 1,033k 1,034k 1,039k 1,023k
Extended childcare entitlement 718k 724k 728k 732k 737k 741k 743k
Universal childcare entitlement 986k 989k 992k 997k 1,002k 1,013k 1,015k
Targeted childcare entitlement 98k 98k 96k 96k 96k 97k 84k
Care to Learn 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Childcare Grant 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Parents' Learning Allowance 98k 99k 99k 100k 100k 100k 101k
Adult Dependants' Grant 18k 18k 12k 13k 13k 13k 13k
Travel Grant 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Cost-of-living support payment 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Energy Bills Rebate 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Basic income 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Disability basic income 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Government balance, each component counted once: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Government receipts, each component once £899.03bn £938.67bn £975.44bn £1,008.36bn £1,044.30bn £1,080.86bn £1,121.34bn
Government spending £530.58bn † £545.59bn † £553.49bn † £560.60bn † £569.15bn † £578.31bn † £587.34bn †
Government balance, each receipt once £368.44bn † £393.08bn † £421.95bn † £447.75bn † £475.14bn † £502.55bn † £534.00bn †
Benefits in household_benefits but not in gov_spending £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Model totals: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
gov_tax £899.03bn £938.67bn £975.44bn £1,008.36bn £1,044.30bn £1,080.86bn £1,121.34bn
household_tax £492.68bn £518.96bn £544.57bn £566.48bn £588.35bn £612.42bn £638.73bn
pre_budget_change_household_tax £484.85bn £510.84bn £536.22bn £557.44bn £579.07bn £602.88bn £628.84bn
gov_spending £530.58bn † £545.59bn † £553.49bn † £560.60bn † £569.15bn † £578.31bn † £587.34bn †
household_benefits £530.58bn † £545.59bn † £553.49bn † £560.60bn † £569.15bn † £578.31bn † £587.34bn †
gov_balance £368.44bn † £393.08bn † £421.95bn † £447.75bn † £475.14bn † £502.55bn † £534.00bn †
Household income totals: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Household market income £1,657.06bn £1,719.25bn £1,771.68bn £1,821.99bn £1,872.88bn £1,930.99bn £2,001.98bn
Household net income £1,655.70bn † £1,705.12bn † £1,738.71bn † £1,773.17bn † £1,809.60bn † £1,851.54bn † £1,903.54bn †
Household net income (HBAI definition) £1,462.17bn £1,509.90bn £1,543.94bn £1,577.28bn £1,611.67bn £1,651.05bn £1,701.84bn
Population: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
People 69,514k 69,778k 70,036k 70,316k 70,626k 70,944k 71,249k
Benefit units 35,247k 35,381k 35,512k 35,654k 35,811k 35,972k 36,127k
Households 31,167k 31,285k 31,401k 31,526k 31,665k 31,808k 31,944k
Poverty rates: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone 16.1% 15.2% 15.5% 15.7% 15.7% 15.8% 15.8%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children 24.2% 21.4% 21.6% 21.6% 21.7% 22.0% 21.8%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 13.9% 13.5% 14.0% 14.2% 14.2% 14.3% 14.3%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 13.7% 13.2% 13.2% 13.4% 13.5% 13.5% 13.5%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone 21.6% 20.9% 21.4% 21.6% 21.9% 22.1% 22.3%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children 33.4% 30.9% 31.1% 31.3% 31.5% 32.0% 32.3%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 19.9% 19.7% 20.3% 20.5% 20.8% 21.0% 21.1%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 12.8% 12.6% 12.6% 12.9% 13.1% 13.4% 13.4%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone 17.2% 16.5% 16.5% 16.6% 16.4% 16.4% 16.4%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children 26.4% 23.7% 23.4% 23.4% 22.9% 23.0% 22.9%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 14.7% 14.4% 14.7% 14.8% 14.7% 14.8% 14.8%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 14.8% 14.8% 14.1% 14.2% 14.0% 14.0% 14.1%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone 21.7% 21.1% 21.3% 21.3% 21.4% 21.4% 21.7%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children 33.5% 31.3% 31.0% 30.8% 31.0% 31.0% 31.5%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 19.9% 19.8% 20.2% 20.3% 20.5% 20.5% 20.7%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 13.0% 12.7% 12.6% 12.2% 12.1% 12.2% 12.5%
People in poverty: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone 11,163k 10,583k 10,866k 11,011k 11,088k 11,228k 11,233k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children 3,629k 3,221k 3,263k 3,284k 3,310k 3,369k 3,350k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 5,902k 5,806k 6,087k 6,198k 6,235k 6,305k 6,321k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 1,632k 1,556k 1,515k 1,529k 1,543k 1,555k 1,562k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone 15,000k 14,571k 14,968k 15,173k 15,433k 15,708k 15,854k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children 5,004k 4,656k 4,703k 4,745k 4,808k 4,897k 4,966k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 8,476k 8,431k 8,814k 8,960k 9,130k 9,273k 9,341k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 1,520k 1,484k 1,451k 1,468k 1,496k 1,538k 1,547k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone 11,974k 11,507k 11,542k 11,648k 11,548k 11,670k 11,705k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children 3,963k 3,570k 3,543k 3,553k 3,489k 3,519k 3,518k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 6,246k 6,184k 6,378k 6,475k 6,459k 6,538k 6,554k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 1,765k 1,753k 1,621k 1,620k 1,600k 1,613k 1,633k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone 15,067k 14,732k 14,895k 14,945k 15,110k 15,214k 15,475k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children 5,019k 4,715k 4,686k 4,669k 4,725k 4,753k 4,839k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 8,497k 8,516k 8,764k 8,884k 8,994k 9,060k 9,195k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 1,551k 1,502k 1,445k 1,392k 1,391k 1,401k 1,441k
Inequality: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Gini coefficient, equivalised HBAI income before housing costs 0.3088 0.3061 0.3068 0.3074 0.3078 0.3084 0.3095
Mean household net income in each side's own deciles: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household £17,841 † £18,023 † £18,040 † £18,084 † £18,438 † £18,627 † £18,803 †
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household £28,086 † £29,021 † £28,787 † £29,226 † £29,487 † £29,939 † £30,568 †
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household £34,361 † £35,678 † £36,193 † £36,764 † £37,055 † £37,700 † £38,313 †
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household £38,776 † £40,951 † £42,048 † £42,647 † £43,424 † £44,189 † £44,704 †
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household £43,948 † £44,841 † £45,903 † £46,641 † £47,851 † £48,655 † £49,864 †
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household £48,438 † £49,772 † £50,873 † £51,669 † £51,947 † £53,410 † £54,725 †
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household £56,400 † £57,626 † £58,395 † £59,133 † £60,160 † £60,960 † £62,360 †
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household £69,281 † £70,763 † £72,241 † £73,343 † £74,868 † £76,016 † £78,283 †
Decile 9: mean household_net_income per household £79,811 † £82,188 † £83,310 † £84,759 † £86,323 † £87,891 † £90,929 †
Decile 10: mean household_net_income per household £117,852 † £120,687 † £122,639 † £124,783 † £127,005 † £129,364 † £132,261 †
Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance): head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp £6.22bn £6.50bn £6.70bn £6.90bn £7.11bn £7.34bn £7.62bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp £3.54bn £3.82bn £4.05bn £4.27bn £4.49bn £4.76bn £4.96bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year £-3.83bn £-3.96bn £-4.03bn £-4.10bn £-4.19bn £-4.30bn £-2.02bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child £-2.00bn £-1.76bn £-1.58bn £-1.48bn £-1.38bn £-1.28bn £-1.17bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20% £-20.49bn £-21.05bn £-21.50bn £-21.94bn £-22.03bn £-22.40bn £-22.87bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10% £11.07bn £11.51bn £11.84bn £12.14bn £12.49bn £12.83bn £13.23bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp £25.01bn £25.68bn £26.29bn £26.92bn £27.58bn £28.26bn £28.95bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp £2.83bn £3.07bn £3.27bn £3.47bn £3.67bn suppressed suppressed
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10% £-3.03bn £-3.16bn £-3.28bn £-3.35bn £-3.39bn £-3.44bn £-3.51bn
Raise the State Pension by 10% £-7.81bn £-8.07bn £-7.99bn £-8.11bn £-8.36bn £-8.66bn £-9.02bn
Standard reforms: change in each reform's target: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp: change in income_tax £6.36bn £6.65bn £6.86bn £7.07bn £7.28bn £7.52bn £7.80bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp: change in income_tax £3.55bn £3.83bn £4.06bn £4.28bn £4.50bn £4.77bn £4.97bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year: change in income_tax £-3.96bn £-4.10bn £-4.19bn £-4.26bn £-4.36bn £-4.47bn £-1.77bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child: change in child_benefit £2.34bn £2.15bn £1.96bn £1.85bn £1.74bn £1.63bn £1.51bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%: change in universal_credit £20.48bn £21.04bn £21.49bn £21.93bn £22.02bn £22.40bn £22.86bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%: change in national_insurance £11.33bn £11.79bn £12.13bn £12.44bn £12.78bn £13.13bn £13.62bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp: change in vat £25.01bn £25.68bn £26.29bn £26.92bn £27.58bn £28.26bn £28.95bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax £2.83bn £3.07bn £3.27bn £3.47bn £3.67bn suppressed suppressed
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%: change in universal_credit £3.03bn £3.16bn £3.28bn £3.36bn £3.41bn £3.47bn £3.52bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%: change in state_pension £10.72bn £11.23bn £11.37bn £11.62bn £12.08bn £12.54bn £13.07bn

@juaristi22
juaristi22 marked this pull request as ready for review October 23, 2026 01:55

@vahid-ahmadi vahid-ahmadi left a comment

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@juaristi22 thanks, this is a clean fix for #1931. Moving the cost read onto eligible children matches Care to Learn and Tax-Free Childcare, the one-payment convention is sensible, and the new cases (adult costs, negative costs, member order, separate benefit units, final totals) are good. Two things on the amount side, both older than this PR, checked against the regulations and the SFE AY 2026/27 guidance.

Checked at head 6c19f4bd9

  • 85% coverage and the £199.62 / £342.24 weekly maxima match SI 2011/1986 reg 45(5) (current text) and SFE Grants for Dependants AY 26/27 §5 (p.19). The AY 26/27 figures are unchanged, so the 2026 parameter values are right.
  • Under-15 / under-17-with-SEN, the TFC / UC / WTC / NHS exclusions and the nanny exclusion match reg 45(2), (3), (3B) and (7A).
  • Paying the family award to one parent matches SFE §5.15 (p.33): "where two students apply for CCG ... SLC request that all of the CCG is allocated to one parent", and the total equals two halves under reg 47(5).
  • Local run in a fresh venv: policyengine-core test .../dfe/childcare_grant 51 passed; pytest tests/test_childcare_grant.py 1 passed. CI is green at this head. Reproducer:, axiom: ... queued and changelog.d/1931.fixed.md are present. No other open PR touches childcare_grant.

Findings

  1. should: the one-child / two-plus split counts age-eligible children, not children in childcare. childcare_grant.py:34-38 picks the weekly cap from childcare_grant_eligible_children, which counts every child who meets the age rule, whether or not they have childcare costs. To be fair to the current code: reg 45(5) and reg 47(2)/(2C) are worded as "one dependent child" / "two or more dependent children", which on its own supports a plain count. SLC applies it to the children in the application, though. SFE AY 26/27 pp.49-51 reassesses to the one-child cap when a child stops needing childcare (the Travis and Miriam examples), and SLC sample-checks students "receiving up to £342.24 for only one child in childcare". GOV.UK also frames the income limits as "if you're applying for 1 child" / "2 or more children". Repro at this head: a student with a 3-year-old costing £20,000 and a 10-year-old with no childcare costs gets £17,000 (85% of £20,000 under the £342.24 cap). Under SLC practice it is £10,380.24 (52 x £199.62). The same count drives the income limit in childcare_grant_eligible.py (£20,107.23 vs £28,914.47). This predates the PR, but it sits in the cap step this PR now applies after aggregation, and the fix is small: count eligible_child & (child_costs > 0) for both the cap and the income limit, and add one test with that household expecting 10,380.24. If you'd rather follow the literal dependent-child count, say so in the variable documentation and I'm fine with that.

  2. should: there is no income taper, and with this fix the grant now pays out at full value across the taper band. Reg 47(2A)/(2B) reduce the annual maximum pound for pound once dependants' income exceeds £9,727 (one child) or £11,118 (two or more), reaching nil above £20,107.23 / £28,914.47 (reg 47(2C)). SFE AY 26/27 pp.45-46 and 50-51 show the working (£15,000 income, one child: £10,380.24 - £5,273 = £5,107.24). The model only has the cliff at the upper limit. Repro at this head: one child, £12,000 costs, childcare_grant_household_income £15,000 returns £10,200; the guidance gives £5,107.24. Two children at £10,000 each, same income: model £17,000, guidance £13,914.48. This predates the PR, but now that costs are read from the children, any household calculation between the two thresholds is overpaid, by up to about £10,380 for one child. The PR body says "Existing eligibility proxies, coverage rates, caps and annual 52-week treatment remain in place", so I'm happy for this to be a linked follow-up issue rather than part of this PR. Please open and link it before merge so it doesn't get lost.

Not for this PR (for the follow-up issue, no action here)

  • The legal income measure is the residual income of the partner and any adult dependants plus the children's net income (reg 47(2A)-(2C)). The proxy, maintenance_loan_household_income, is benefit-unit net income, which includes the student's own income.
  • Parameters change on 1 January, but the AY runs from 1 September (nanny exclusion from 1 August 2026, per GOV.UK). With a calendar-year period, 2026 applies the nanny exclusion to January to July 2026 too.
  • Reg 47(2C) says nil where income "exceeds" £20,107.23; the model's < gives nil at exactly that figure. The legal amount there is 1p, so this changes nothing in practice.
  • Aggregate impact shows Childcare Grant at £0 on both sides. That is expected, because childcare_grant_full_time_student defaults to False and the FRS has no input for it, so this fix only shows up in household calculations for now.

Reviewed against SI 2011/1986 regs 45 and 47 (legislation.gov.uk, current text), GOV.UK Childcare Grant pages and SFE Grants for Dependants AY 2026/27 v3.0.

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@vahid-ahmadi vahid-ahmadi left a comment

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@juaristi22 thanks, second round at 6763caa6a. The delta since my review (git diff 6c19f4bd9..6763caa6a) is four lines of the childcare_grant documentation string, with no change to executable code, so my round-1 test run at 6c19f4bd9 (51 YAML cases and the pytest file) still holds.

Earlier findings

  1. should, cap and income limit count age-eligible children rather than children in childcare: resolved. I offered documenting the literal dependent-child count as an alternative, and childcare_grant.py:13-16 now does that, naming the SLC application-based practice. #2604 also records it as a separate practice question, including the guidance's temporary zero-charge exception, which is a fair point against a plain positive-cost test.
  2. should, no income taper: resolved. #2604 is open and linked from the PR body. It covers the reg 47(2A) to (2C) £1-for-£1 taper with the £9,727 / £11,118 lower and £20,107.23 / £28,914.47 upper thresholds, the residual-income measure, the academic-year and nanny-exclusion dates and the upper-limit boundary, with the SFE p.51 controls.

No new findings. The test jobs at this head were cancelled by the runner rather than failing; I re-ran the workflow and it passed. Approving.

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@vahid-ahmadi
vahid-ahmadi added this pull request to the merge queue Oct 23, 2026
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Childcare Grant reads the parent's childcare costs, which the Enhanced FRS records on children

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