[juaristi22]

Refs #2526

Keep explicit energy price declarations limited to domestic energy, electricity and gas when generic uprating exclusions change. Declared projections now reject basis or target dates before the selected index has usable history, including an index that starts partway through a year. Unlabelled spending retains its existing flat projection.

The documentation names generic annual OBR CPI as an interim proxy and explains the shared January 1 convention for calendar and fiscal price years. Energy-specific index work and producer/caller adoption remain open in #2526. This follows the review of #2571 and leaves the active fuel work in #2573 unchanged.

Reproducer: policyengine_uk/tests/test_energy_dataset_projection.py::test_declared_energy_projection_ignores_widened_generic_exclusions; policyengine_uk/tests/test_energy_dataset_projection.py::test_energy_projection_rejects_pre_support_basis_and_target

Validation: 141 tests passed across the eight affected energy, reset, metadata, disabled-assumption, dataset-routing and uprating test files; the strict outcome checker passed for that selection with required-data mode enabled. The new regression batch first produced 10 assertion failures and 10 passing controls against the original code; those 20 cases are included in the 141. make format passed. Independent code and source reviews found no open findings.

Test selection (the recorded run also enabled outcome and collection logging):

POLICYENGINE_UK_REQUIRE_TEST_DATA=1 uv run --frozen --no-sync pytest \
  policyengine_uk/tests/test_energy_dataset_projection.py \
  policyengine_uk/tests/test_energy_reset_coherence.py \
  policyengine_uk/tests/test_energy_price_basis.py \
  policyengine_uk/tests/test_no_economic_assumptions.py \
  policyengine_uk/tests/test_simulation_dataset_sources.py \
  policyengine_uk/tests/test_uprating_inputs_reach_data.py \
  policyengine_uk/tests/code_health/test_energy_price_level.py \
  policyengine_uk/tests/code_health/test_uprating_declarations.py \
  -q -p no:cacheprovider -o xfail_strict=true

Full model CI and private-data runs were not executed locally; current-head Linux CI remains required. The documentation build was not run because these are guidance-only content changes. This does not retrofit metadata-free private releases or establish energy-specific forecasting, deployed adoption or encoded parity.

axiom: needed

[github-actions]

Aggregate impact on certified data: pass

Base 024f322c2e against head d279f2f649, both on enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5 (policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1, sha256 056e80fd8e91), fiscal years 2025-26 to 2031-32. Each year is a full microsimulation run on each side.

Checks: 0 broken by this change, 1 failing on both sides, 0 fixed. Moves flagged for review: 0 (thresholds in report_spec.yaml; a flag does not fail the job).

Workflow run and full report

Notes

• In the years a figure from fewer than 10 records is suppressed (spending.disabled_students_allowance), every total containing it, and the decile incomes, are rebuilt from their other components, so no published total includes it. Those totals are marked †. A change is withheld where the two sides leave out different figures and can't be lined up.

Moves flagged for review

None.

Spending by benefit and service

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed

Caseloads

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed

Household net income by decile

No household's net income changes in any year.

No change in any year: receipts by tax head; government balance, each component counted once; model totals; household income totals; population; poverty rates; people in poverty; inequality; mean household net income in each side's own deciles; standard reform costings (change in gov_balance); standard reforms: change in each reform's target.

Checks failing on both base and head (1)

• VAT is never negative (sign:vat): 2025-26: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-54,797,972 in total; 2026-27: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-56,271,349 in total; 2027-28: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-57,609,146 in total

Counted-once check

Each of 84 components was raised by £1 per unit in 2026-27, and every head of its totals was read household by household: its own head must rise by exactly £1, no other tax head may move, no other benefit may rise, and the model's own total must move by what its heads moved. A head that breaks a rule is measured again twice: with every other head held at its baseline value, and with every other head held at its value after the first £1 while the component rises again. It fails where either still shows the response. 0 failed; 0 were skipped.

Provenance

Side	Commit	Runtime	Environment hash	Partition hash	Time
base	main 024f322c2e	uk 2.148.1 (files fad2cfc39446), core 3.33.2, py 3.13.17 aarch64	97a328e16617	d4c1e9f08160	1569.1s
head	#2591 merged into main d279f2f649	uk 2.148.1 (files eabf00682365), core 3.33.2, py 3.13.17 aarch64	97a328e16617	d4c1e9f08160	1588.57s

Dataset: hf://policyengine/policyengine-uk-data-private/enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5@2526edbbb687a3b54dbb11272e5389e4b62d2ac2, sha256 056e80fd8e9151d78f432a25cde863340baee81304c6216a37fb575ce8563784 (verified on both sides), policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1.

Receipts by tax head: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Income tax	£299.29bn	£319.01bn	£336.47bn	£351.62bn	£367.17bn	£385.29bn	£403.59bn
National Insurance (employee and self-employed)	£52.58bn	£54.94bn	£56.75bn	£58.48bn	£60.62bn	£62.57bn	£65.03bn
National Insurance (employer)	£152.64bn	£159.18bn	£164.14bn	£168.73bn	£176.11bn	£181.72bn	£188.90bn
Employer NI change borne by capital	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Employer NI change borne by consumers	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Capital gains tax	£12.62bn	£13.06bn	£13.55bn	£14.04bn	£14.54bn	£15.09bn	£15.65bn
Student loan repayments	£7.83bn	£8.12bn	£8.35bn	£8.56bn	£8.79bn	£9.04bn	£9.38bn
VAT	£253.71bn	£260.53bn	£266.72bn	£273.14bn	£279.83bn	£286.71bn	£293.71bn
Change in VAT from its baseline	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
VAT on private school fees	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Fuel duties	£24.53bn	£24.64bn	£26.64bn	£26.69bn	£26.42bn	£25.76bn	£26.35bn
Alcohol duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Tobacco duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Vehicle excise duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
TV licence fee	£4.28bn	£4.43bn	£4.44bn	£4.46bn	£4.48bn	£4.51bn	£4.53bn
Council tax	£49.56bn	£52.45bn	£55.78bn	£59.39bn	£62.98bn	£66.74bn	£70.70bn
High value council tax surcharge	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.48bn	£0.49bn	£0.51bn	£0.52bn
Northern Ireland domestic rates	£0.55bn	£0.58bn	£0.61bn	£0.63bn	£0.67bn	£0.70bn	£0.73bn
Business rates	£31.73bn	£31.73bn	£31.73bn	£31.73bn	£31.73bn	£31.73bn	£31.73bn
Stamp duty land tax on the household's own purchases	£6.93bn	£7.42bn	£7.85bn	£8.26bn	£8.68bn	£9.09bn	£9.51bn
Stamp duty land tax paid by companies	£3.13bn	£3.13bn	£3.13bn	£3.13bn	£3.13bn	£3.13bn	£3.13bn
Land transaction tax (Wales)	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Land and buildings transaction tax (Scotland)	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn
Unspecified tax change borne by capital	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Unspecified tax change borne by consumers	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Wealth tax	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Wealth tax excluding the main residence	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Land value tax	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Carbon tax	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn

Spending by benefit and service: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
State Pension	£122.15bn	£126.64bn	£127.57bn	£129.47bn	£133.29bn	£137.24bn	£141.32bn
Pension Credit	£6.68bn	£7.07bn	£7.06bn	£7.13bn	£7.26bn	£7.39bn	£7.49bn
Winter Fuel Payment	£1.70bn	£1.68bn	£1.59bn	£1.58bn	£1.57bn	£1.55bn	£1.52bn
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland)	£0.19bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.21bn	£0.21bn	£0.22bn	£0.22bn
Universal Credit	£75.54bn	£80.75bn	£82.55bn	£84.28bn	£85.26bn	£86.64bn	£87.92bn
Housing Benefit	£8.59bn	£8.93bn	£9.19bn	£9.34bn	£9.61bn	£9.87bn	£10.15bn
Council Tax Reduction	£1.99bn	£2.03bn	£2.08bn	£2.13bn	£2.18bn	£2.23bn	£2.29bn
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related)	£2.12bn	£2.18bn	£2.23bn	£2.28bn	£2.33bn	£2.39bn	£2.45bn
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based)	£5.22bn	£5.36bn	£5.49bn	£5.62bn	£5.76bn	£5.90bn	£6.04bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based)	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based)	£0.29bn	£0.30bn	£0.30bn	£0.31bn	£0.32bn	£0.33bn	£0.33bn
Income Support	£0.12bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Working Tax Credit	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Child Tax Credit	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Incapacity Benefit	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Personal Independence Payment	£27.05bn	£28.19bn	£28.94bn	£29.64bn	£30.37bn	£31.11bn	£31.87bn
Disability Living Allowance	£7.52bn	£7.83bn	£8.04bn	£8.24bn	£8.44bn	£8.65bn	£8.86bn
Attendance Allowance	£8.71bn	£9.08bn	£9.32bn	£9.55bn	£9.78bn	£10.02bn	£10.26bn
Carer's Allowance	£4.50bn	£4.69bn	£4.81bn	£4.93bn	£5.05bn	£5.17bn	£5.29bn
Carer Support Payment (Scotland)	£0.31bn	£0.32bn	£0.33bn	£0.34bn	£0.35bn	£0.36bn	£0.36bn
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland)	£0.00bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn
Severe Disablement Allowance	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit	£0.51bn	£0.52bn	£0.53bn	£0.54bn	£0.56bn	£0.57bn	£0.59bn
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme	£0.61bn	£0.62bn	£0.64bn	£0.65bn	£0.67bn	£0.69bn	£0.70bn
War Widow's or Widower's Pension	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Child Benefit	£16.23bn	£16.91bn	£17.32bn	£17.73bn	£18.16bn	£18.60bn	£19.04bn
Scottish Child Payment	£0.50bn	£0.52bn	£0.53bn	£0.55bn	£0.56bn	£0.57bn	£0.58bn
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual)	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Healthy Start vouchers	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn
Maternity Allowance	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Statutory Maternity Pay	£3.32bn	£3.41bn	£3.49bn	£3.57bn	£3.66bn	£3.75bn	£3.84bn
Statutory Paternity Pay	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Statutory Sick Pay	£1.13bn	£1.16bn	£1.19bn	£1.22bn	£1.25bn	£1.28bn	£1.31bn
Sure Start Maternity Grant	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn
Bereavement Support Payment	£0.67bn	£0.69bn	£0.70bn	£0.72bn	£0.74bn	£0.76bn	£0.78bn
Tax-Free Childcare	£0.55bn	£0.56bn	£0.57bn	£0.58bn	£0.60bn	£0.61bn	£0.59bn
Extended childcare entitlement	£2.77bn	£3.27bn	£3.36bn	£3.43bn	£3.53bn	£3.61bn	£3.70bn
Universal childcare entitlement	£2.26bn	£2.45bn	£2.51bn	£2.58bn	£2.64bn	£2.72bn	£2.78bn
Targeted childcare entitlement	£0.47bn	£0.49bn	£0.50bn	£0.51bn	£0.52bn	£0.53bn	£0.47bn
Care to Learn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Childcare Grant	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Parents' Learning Allowance	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn
Adult Dependants' Grant	£0.06bn	£0.06bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn
Travel Grant	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
NHS spending	£204.68bn	£205.46bn	£206.22bn	£207.04bn	£207.96bn	£208.89bn	£209.79bn
State education spending	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn
Transport subsidy spending	£25.15bn	£25.25bn	£25.34bn	£25.44bn	£25.55bn	£25.67bn	£25.78bn
Cost-of-living support payment	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Energy Bills Rebate	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Basic income	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Disability basic income	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Other public spending budget change	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn

Caseloads: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
State Pension	11,308k	11,208k	10,906k	10,812k	10,860k	10,908k	10,955k
Pension Credit	1,491k	1,489k	1,478k	1,459k	1,459k	1,457k	1,453k
Winter Fuel Payment	7,091k	7,011k	6,601k	6,517k	6,493k	6,381k	6,254k
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland)	806k	807k	807k	805k	809k	812k	816k
Universal Credit	6,361k	6,370k	6,402k	6,412k	6,386k	6,378k	6,363k
Housing Benefit	1,254k	1,252k	1,254k	1,240k	1,245k	1,247k	1,249k
Council Tax Reduction	3,186k	3,211k	3,224k	3,245k	3,264k	3,280k	3,293k
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related)	187k	188k	188k	189k	190k	190k	191k
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based)	722k	724k	727k	730k	733k	737k	740k
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based)	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based)	67k	67k	68k	68k	68k	69k	69k
Income Support	25k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Working Tax Credit	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Child Tax Credit	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Incapacity Benefit	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Personal Independence Payment	3,581k	3,595k	3,608k	3,623k	3,639k	3,655k	3,671k
Disability Living Allowance	1,296k	1,301k	1,306k	1,311k	1,317k	1,323k	1,329k
Attendance Allowance	1,701k	1,708k	1,714k	1,721k	1,729k	1,736k	1,744k
Carer's Allowance	1,038k	1,042k	1,046k	1,050k	1,055k	1,059k	1,064k
Carer Support Payment (Scotland)	71k	72k	72k	72k	73k	73k	73k
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland)	0k	72k	72k	72k	73k	73k	73k
Severe Disablement Allowance	4k	4k	4k	4k	4k	4k	4k
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit	137k	138k	139k	139k	140k	140k	141k
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme	94k	94k	94k	95k	95k	95k	96k
War Widow's or Widower's Pension	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Child Benefit	8,136k	8,165k	8,185k	8,215k	8,249k	8,282k	8,314k
Scottish Child Payment	352k	354k	355k	356k	357k	358k	357k
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual)	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Healthy Start vouchers	200k	201k	202k	203k	204k	204k	205k
Maternity Allowance	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Statutory Maternity Pay	334k	335k	336k	338k	339k	341k	342k
Statutory Paternity Pay	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Statutory Sick Pay	182k	183k	183k	184k	185k	186k	186k
Sure Start Maternity Grant	26k	26k	26k	27k	27k	27k	27k
Bereavement Support Payment	98k	98k	99k	99k	100k	100k	101k
Tax-Free Childcare	1,018k	1,029k	1,029k	1,033k	1,035k	1,039k	1,024k
Extended childcare entitlement	718k	724k	728k	732k	737k	741k	743k
Universal childcare entitlement	986k	989k	992k	997k	1,002k	1,013k	1,015k
Targeted childcare entitlement	98k	98k	96k	96k	96k	97k	84k
Care to Learn	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Childcare Grant	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Parents' Learning Allowance	98k	99k	99k	100k	100k	100k	101k
Adult Dependants' Grant	18k	18k	12k	13k	13k	13k	13k
Travel Grant	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Cost-of-living support payment	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Energy Bills Rebate	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Basic income	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Disability basic income	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k

Government balance, each component counted once: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Government receipts, each component once	£899.38bn	£939.24bn	£976.18bn	£1,009.38bn	£1,045.66bn	£1,082.60bn	£1,123.48bn
Government spending	£531.92bn †	£546.96bn †	£553.03bn †	£560.01bn †	£568.57bn †	£577.73bn †	£586.77bn †
Government balance, each receipt once	£367.47bn †	£392.28bn †	£423.15bn †	£449.37bn †	£477.09bn †	£504.87bn †	£536.71bn †
Benefits in household_benefits but not in gov_spending	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn

Model totals: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
gov_tax	£899.38bn	£939.24bn	£976.18bn	£1,009.38bn	£1,045.66bn	£1,082.60bn	£1,123.48bn
household_tax	£493.03bn	£519.53bn	£545.32bn	£567.51bn	£589.72bn	£614.17bn	£640.87bn
pre_budget_change_household_tax	£485.21bn	£511.41bn	£536.97bn	£558.47bn	£580.44bn	£604.62bn	£630.98bn
gov_spending	£531.92bn †	£546.96bn †	£553.03bn †	£560.01bn †	£568.57bn †	£577.73bn †	£586.77bn †
household_benefits	£531.92bn †	£546.96bn †	£553.03bn †	£560.01bn †	£568.57bn †	£577.73bn †	£586.77bn †
gov_balance	£367.47bn †	£392.28bn †	£423.15bn †	£449.37bn †	£477.09bn †	£504.87bn †	£536.71bn †

Household income totals: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Household market income	£1,657.06bn	£1,719.25bn	£1,771.68bn	£1,821.99bn	£1,872.88bn	£1,930.99bn	£2,001.98bn
Household net income	£1,656.67bn †	£1,705.92bn †	£1,737.51bn †	£1,771.55bn †	£1,807.66bn †	£1,849.21bn †	£1,900.83bn †
Household net income (HBAI definition)	£1,463.15bn	£1,510.70bn	£1,542.73bn	£1,575.67bn	£1,609.74bn	£1,648.74bn	£1,699.14bn

Population: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
People	69,514k	69,778k	70,036k	70,316k	70,626k	70,944k	71,249k
Benefit units	35,247k	35,381k	35,512k	35,654k	35,811k	35,972k	36,127k
Households	31,167k	31,285k	31,401k	31,526k	31,665k	31,808k	31,944k

Poverty rates: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone	16.2%	15.2%	15.7%	15.8%	15.9%	16.0%	15.9%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children	24.6%	21.4%	22.0%	21.9%	22.1%	22.3%	22.2%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	13.9%	13.5%	14.1%	14.2%	14.3%	14.4%	14.4%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	13.7%	13.2%	13.3%	13.5%	13.6%	13.7%	13.7%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone	21.5%	20.8%	21.5%	21.8%	22.2%	22.4%	22.5%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children	33.4%	30.9%	31.6%	31.8%	32.4%	32.9%	33.2%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	19.8%	19.6%	20.4%	20.6%	20.9%	21.2%	21.2%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	12.8%	12.6%	12.6%	13.1%	13.4%	13.4%	13.4%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone	17.2%	16.5%	16.6%	16.6%	16.4%	16.5%	16.7%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children	26.4%	23.7%	23.7%	23.6%	23.2%	23.3%	23.5%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	14.6%	14.4%	14.7%	14.8%	14.7%	14.8%	14.9%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	15.0%	14.8%	14.4%	14.3%	14.0%	14.0%	14.4%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone	21.7%	21.1%	21.4%	21.4%	21.5%	21.6%	22.0%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children	33.5%	31.3%	31.4%	31.3%	31.3%	31.5%	32.1%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	19.9%	19.8%	20.2%	20.4%	20.5%	20.6%	20.9%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	13.0%	12.7%	12.6%	12.3%	12.2%	12.2%	12.9%

People in poverty: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone	11,270k	10,578k	10,975k	11,077k	11,210k	11,339k	11,354k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children	3,696k	3,227k	3,332k	3,325k	3,371k	3,407k	3,408k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	5,940k	5,792k	6,115k	6,209k	6,281k	6,360k	6,367k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	1,634k	1,559k	1,527k	1,543k	1,558k	1,572k	1,579k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone	14,972k	14,539k	15,080k	15,313k	15,657k	15,918k	16,049k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children	5,005k	4,656k	4,776k	4,818k	4,933k	5,035k	5,098k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	8,445k	8,399k	8,848k	9,001k	9,191k	9,342k	9,400k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	1,521k	1,484k	1,456k	1,493k	1,533k	1,541k	1,551k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone	11,980k	11,485k	11,639k	11,698k	11,596k	11,730k	11,890k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children	3,967k	3,570k	3,578k	3,587k	3,531k	3,566k	3,616k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	6,227k	6,161k	6,401k	6,485k	6,468k	6,552k	6,616k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	1,785k	1,754k	1,660k	1,627k	1,597k	1,611k	1,659k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone	15,057k	14,705k	14,981k	15,071k	15,191k	15,336k	15,683k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children	5,024k	4,718k	4,751k	4,755k	4,774k	4,816k	4,937k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	8,480k	8,486k	8,784k	8,917k	9,017k	9,112k	9,256k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	1,552k	1,501k	1,445k	1,399k	1,399k	1,408k	1,491k

Inequality: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Gini coefficient, equivalised HBAI income before housing costs	0.3087	0.3060	0.3074	0.3080	0.3085	0.3091	0.3102

Mean household net income in each side's own deciles: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household	£17,832 †	£18,015 †	£17,980 †	£18,037 †	£18,364 †	£18,545 †	£18,723 †
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household	£28,134 †	£29,089 †	£28,741 †	£29,160 †	£29,431 †	£29,994 †	£30,438 †
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household	£34,455 †	£35,681 †	£36,229 †	£36,632 †	£36,967 †	£37,482 †	£38,380 †
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household	£39,398 †	£41,043 †	£41,970 †	£42,713 †	£43,280 †	£44,024 †	£44,550 †
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household	£43,698 †	£45,019 †	£45,872 †	£46,588 †	£47,624 †	£48,569 †	£49,772 †
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household	£48,494 †	£49,775 †	£50,932 †	£51,700 †	£52,150 †	£53,469 †	£54,371 †
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household	£56,356 †	£57,547 †	£58,375 †	£59,116 †	£60,155 †	£60,877 †	£62,974 †
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household	£68,817 †	£70,403 †	£71,732 †	£72,842 †	£74,422 †	£75,795 †	£77,553 †
Decile 9: mean household_net_income per household	£79,735 †	£82,088 †	£83,280 †	£84,576 †	£86,144 †	£87,656 †	£90,725 †
Decile 10: mean household_net_income per household	£117,772 †	£120,640 †	£122,567 †	£124,692 †	£126,940 †	£129,209 †	£132,023 †

Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance): head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp	£6.22bn	£6.50bn	£6.70bn	£6.90bn	£7.11bn	£7.34bn	£7.62bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp	£3.54bn	£3.82bn	£4.05bn	£4.27bn	£4.49bn	£4.76bn	£4.96bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year	£-3.83bn	£-3.96bn	£-4.03bn	£-4.10bn	£-4.19bn	£-4.30bn	£-2.02bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child	£-2.00bn	£-1.76bn	£-1.64bn	£-1.54bn	£-1.44bn	£-1.34bn	£-1.24bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%	£-20.49bn	£-21.05bn	£-21.40bn	£-21.83bn	£-21.91bn	£-22.28bn	£-22.73bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%	£11.07bn	£11.51bn	£11.84bn	£12.14bn	£12.48bn	£12.82bn	£13.23bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp	£25.01bn	£25.68bn	£26.29bn	£26.92bn	£27.58bn	£28.26bn	£28.95bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp	£2.83bn	£3.07bn	£3.27bn	£3.47bn	£3.67bn	£3.91bn	£4.23bn
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%	£-3.03bn	£-3.16bn	£-3.24bn	£-3.32bn	£-3.37bn	£-3.42bn	£-3.46bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%	£-7.81bn	£-8.07bn	£-7.99bn	£-8.11bn	£-8.36bn	£-8.66bn	£-9.02bn

Standard reforms: change in each reform's target: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp: change in income_tax	£6.36bn	£6.65bn	£6.86bn	£7.07bn	£7.28bn	£7.52bn	£7.80bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp: change in income_tax	£3.55bn	£3.83bn	£4.06bn	£4.28bn	£4.50bn	£4.77bn	£4.97bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year: change in income_tax	£-3.96bn	£-4.10bn	£-4.19bn	£-4.26bn	£-4.36bn	£-4.47bn	£-1.77bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child: change in child_benefit	£2.34bn	£2.15bn	£2.03bn	£1.92bn	£1.82bn	£1.71bn	£1.59bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%: change in universal_credit	£20.48bn	£21.04bn	£21.39bn	£21.82bn	£21.90bn	£22.27bn	£22.73bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%: change in national_insurance	£11.33bn	£11.79bn	£12.13bn	£12.44bn	£12.78bn	£13.13bn	£13.62bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp: change in vat	£25.01bn	£25.68bn	£26.29bn	£26.92bn	£27.58bn	£28.26bn	£28.95bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax	£2.83bn	£3.07bn	£3.27bn	£3.47bn	£3.67bn	£3.91bn	£4.23bn
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%: change in universal_credit	£3.03bn	£3.16bn	£3.24bn	£3.32bn	£3.37bn	£3.43bn	£3.47bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%: change in state_pension	£10.72bn	£11.23bn	£11.37bn	£11.62bn	£12.08bn	£12.54bn	£13.07bn

[vahid-ahmadi]

@juaristi22 thanks, this closes the two shoulds from my #2571 review cleanly. Review at head 673b67f3, round 1. No must or should findings, so I'm approving; three nits below.

Our #2571 review, status at this head

1. should, index choice (headline CPI vs Ofgem cap, CY2024 vs FY2024-25): partly resolved, enough for this PR. You took option (b): the README (economic_assumptions/README.md:117-137) and dataset-sources.md:84-101 now call generic annual OBR CPI an interim proxy, say the shared start-year convention is an approximation, and point to #2526 for an energy-specific index. The numbers I asked for are not there; see nit 1.
2. should, the declared group sharing DATASET_UPRATING_EXCLUSIONS: resolved. DECLARED_ENERGY_INPUTS (economic_assumptions.py:108-115) now drives both uprate_energy (:390) and the reset group (:734, :742), with DATASET_UPRATING_EXCLUSIONS kept as a separate name. #2573 ended up putting liquid and solid fuel on the CPI mapping in uprating_indices.yaml rather than in the exclusions, and git merge-tree of this head with #2573's head (112056f1) is clean, so the two can merge in either order.
3. nit, declared year before the index starts: resolved. With the real index a fiscal_year 1990 or 2008 declaration now raises ("first supports 2009-01-01"), where it used to give 1,000 to 1,610.6 in 2025; fiscal_year 2009 still projects.
4. nit, base year never repriced: open. I couldn't find a line in dataset-sources.md saying the declared year should match the data year, or that the base year keeps the declared prices. Still a nit.
5. nit, PR body and changelog: partly. The changelog now says what changed. The body still ends axiom: needed.

What I checked

• The eight test files in your selection in a fresh env at the head: 141 passed.
• The 20 new cases against the base economic_assumptions.py with the head's tests: 10 failed, 10 passed, as the body says. The 10 failures are the widened-exclusions cases (projection and both reset variants), the four pre-support cases, the two unusable-history cases and the reformed-index case.
• CI at the head is green, including Test / Result and Aggregate impact.
• Real index: CY2024 or FY2024-25 basis to 2026 gives a ratio of 1.0578, and to 2040 1.368.
• Index history against ONS MM23 (release 21 October 2026): the index rebuilds from yoy_growth.obr.consumer_price_index, so I[Y+1]/I[Y] is calendar-year average CPI growth. For 2022 to 2025 the rates (9.07%, 7.3%, 2.5%, 3.4%) match ONS D7G7. These are the years any current declaration uses. See nit 2 for earlier years and 2026.
• Public code search across PolicyEngine still finds no producer writing energy_price_basis, so this stays inert for current datasets.

New findings

1. nit: say how big the approximation is. dataset-sources.md:84-90 and README.md:124-127 say the shared start-year convention approximates calendar/fiscal alignment but give no size, and the sign depends on the index. On headline CPI the ONS D7BT average for FY2024-25 (134.78) is 0.7% above CY2024 (133.86), so mapping a FY2024-25 basis to I[2024] projects it about 0.7% too high. On the Ofgem cap it goes the other way: CY2024 is about 2.8% above FY2024-25 (my #2571 figures), so an energy index under the same convention would project a FY2024-25 basis about 2.8% too low. One sentence with these numbers would let a caller judge the proxy. The wording "January 1 index level" could also mislead, since I[Y] is the calendar-year average level dated 1 January rather than a January reading; "calendar-year average level" would be clearer.

2. nit (not from this PR): the CPI history the new check accepts is not all calendar-year CPI. yoy_growth.yaml:206-218 says each value is growth over a calendar year, but 2010 to 2021 do not match ONS D7G7 calendar-year rates: for example 2014 1.1% (ONS 1.5%), 2016 1.1% (0.7%), 2021 4.0% (2.6%). They match ONS financial-year average growth instead (from D7BT monthly: 2014 1.05%, 2016 1.10%, 2021 3.97%), so 2010 to 2021 are FY rates and 2022 onward are CY rates. The cumulative effect from 2009 to 2024 is small (model 1.558, ONS 1.546, about 0.7%), and no plausible energy declaration starts that early. Separately, 2026 is the forecast 2.3%, while ONS January to September 2026 runs 3.0% above the same months of 2025, so a 2024 basis is projected to 2026 about 0.7pp low for now. Neither is for this PR; worth a line in the #2526 follow-up or a separate issue when the CPI series is next refreshed.

3. nit: axiom: needed. Same as last round; the body should give the axiom line a decision.

#2526
I'd keep #2526 open but narrow it. This PR and #2571 together deliver its consumer side: reading the declared price year, keeping unlabelled and legacy files flat, and the tests. What remains is the energy-specific index (Ofgem cap for outturn quarters, then a sourced assumption) and a Microcosm release that actually writes the declaration. I'd narrow #2526 to the index work once this merges, with the producer side linked from Microcosm. Refs #2526, not Fixes, is right.

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

[MaxGhenis]

Merged by the UK hub (Claude session 8e19f9d5) at head 673b67f36, through the merge queue with the head pinned.

• What it does: it isolates the declared energy projection group (domestic_energy_consumption, electricity_consumption, gas_consumption), so the projection and the amount-and-metadata reset act on exactly those columns. Widening the generic dataset uprating exclusions can no longer project or reset unrelated spending. It also validates that the selected index's history covers both the declared basis year and the target year.
• Reviews: Vahid approved at this head. An independent GPT-6.1 Sol review APPROVE at this head found no current-law cash value, rate, parameter history, index choice or variable uprating change. The index stays OBR CPI. The validator rejects only histories that start after the basis or target year's 1 January (or are empty or all null), not falling or sparse series. It checked the interaction with Model the temporary 0% VAT on GB domestic electricity #2189 (temporary 0% VAT on GB domestic electricity): no overlapping paths, and the two merge cleanly together. The 20 new deterministic cases cover the boundaries.
• Impact: none on current-law outputs. The only intended behaviour change is an error for unsupported declarations.
• CI: all 17 checks pass at this head.
• Open (not this PR): energy-specific forecasting and producer adoption, in Energy spending projection: add an energy-specific price index and a Microcosm release that writes energy_price_basis #2526.
• Why now: it makes energy measures (for example a Budget change to VAT on domestic energy) safe to score on projected spending.