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Let CI test and check jobs use another runner pool, set by repository variables - #2598

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Let CI test and check jobs use another runner pool, set by repository variables#2598
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@MaxGhenis MaxGhenis commented Oct 23, 2026 •
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Fixes #2597

Draft: do not merge before Max decides on CI runner capacity (a cos decision; analysis in ~/reviews/ci-runner-capacity-2026-10/REPORT.md on the hub host). Companion: PolicyEngine/policyengine.py#706.

What and why

The org's 60-job limit for standard GitHub-hosted runners is shared by every PolicyEngine repository. This repository's merge queue groups, main pushes and release test suites queue for runners behind other repositories' pull request runs. This PR lets those jobs move to another runner pool, such as GitHub-hosted larger runners, by setting a repository variable, and move back by deleting it. Nothing changes until a variable is set.

Variable Replaces Jobs
CI_RUNNER_ARM ubuntu-24.04-arm test-suite.yaml YAML, Python (5 shards), Result; pr_code_changes.yaml Changes; code_changes.yaml Tested
CI_RUNNER_X64 ubuntu-latest pr_code_changes.yaml Python-Compat, Lint, Docs; code_changes.yaml Lint; versioning.yaml Lint, Compat, Sdist
CI_RUNNER_EVENTS (optional) Event names separated by commas, no spaces, for example merge_group,push. Only those events use the two variables. Empty means every event.

The test suite is a reusable workflow, so the release's Release test follows CI_RUNNER_ARM when push is listed.

Never moved (the test pins these): versioning.yaml Versioning (version commit, App token), Build (the files that are published), Publish (PyPI trusted publishing); pr_fix_evidence.yaml (runs on pull_request_target with base-repository secrets); aggregate-impact.yaml (household-level detail must stay on the runner); deploy.yml.

Read-only tokens. The org's default GITHUB_TOKEN permission is write (gh api orgs/PolicyEngine/actions/permissions/workflow), and Changes, Python-Compat, Lint and Docs (pr_code_changes.yaml) and main's Lint (code_changes.yaml) had no permissions block, so a moved job would take a write token to the other runner. They now have permissions: contents: read. None of them uses the token beyond checkout. The test suite and versioning.yaml were already read-only at the workflow level.

Data. The moved test jobs download the licensed dataset with HUGGING_FACE_TOKEN and authenticate to GCP through workload identity federation. The workflow comment says to point the variables only at runners where that data may be processed, such as the organisation's GitHub-hosted larger runners. A third-party runner provider would need a data-licence decision first. GitHub-hosted larger runners report runner_environment: github-hosted in the OIDC token, as standard runners do (GitHub OIDC reference).

Each job's runner is

${{ vars.CI_RUNNER_ARM != '' && (vars.CI_RUNNER_EVENTS == '' || contains(format(',{0},', vars.CI_RUNNER_EVENTS), format(',{0},', github.event_name))) && vars.CI_RUNNER_ARM || 'ubuntu-24.04-arm' }}

An unset variable reads as '', so the default label is used. The commas around both sides make pull_request not match pull_request_target.

To switch, for example only the merge queue and main to a larger runner named pe-arm64-4core: Settings > Secrets and variables > Actions > Variables: CI_RUNNER_ARM=pe-arm64-4core, CI_RUNNER_EVENTS=merge_group,push,workflow_dispatch. To switch back: delete CI_RUNNER_ARM. The next run uses ubuntu-24.04-arm.

Invariants

  1. With no variable set, every job's runner is exactly today's label.
  2. Only the 12 listed jobs can move. Every other job keeps a literal GitHub-hosted label, and the release versioning, build and publish jobs, fix evidence, aggregate impact and docs deploy never move.
  3. A variable applies exactly when it is set and CI_RUNNER_EVENTS is empty or names the run's event as a whole name.
  4. Every job that can move holds no write scope on GITHUB_TOKEN (id-token, used for GCP, aside).

Test plan

  • policyengine_uk/tests/code_health/test_ci_runner_variables.py: invariants 1, 2 and 4 against the parsed workflows; invariant 3 exhaustively over 2 variable states × 6 event lists × 6 events (72 cases) on a Python mirror of the expression. 75 passed locally. Mutation check: making Publish read a variable fails invariant 2, and removing Changes' read-only token fails invariant 4.
  • Wheel mode: the release workflow runs this suite on the installed wheel, which has no .github. The test skips itself at module level with the reason "the .github folder is not part of an installed package", as test_aggregate_impact_workflow.py does; .github/test_outcome_allowlist.toml accepts that collect-skipped outcome for code_health/* in wheel mode. Checked in a wheel-like layout: 1 skipped. Do not merge until "Release test / Result" is green on this PR.
  • actionlint on every workflow: no findings.
  • ruff format --check and ruff check on the new test.
  • CI on this PR (variables unset, so it runs on today's labels).
  • Not applicable: YAML policy tests (no policy change).
  • Changelog fragment changelog.d/2597.changed.md.

Reproducer: n/a: CI workflows and a code-health test only; no files under policyengine_uk/ outside policyengine_uk/tests/ change.

axiom: n/a: CI infrastructure only

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

MaxGhenis and others added 2 commits October 23, 2026 07:34
@MaxGhenis @claude
Put CI test and check jobs' runners behind repository variables
95ecedc 
The test suite, Changes, Tested and the Lint, install and Docs checks now
read their runner from CI_RUNNER_ARM or CI_RUNNER_X64, optionally limited
to the events in CI_RUNNER_EVENTS, with today's GitHub-hosted labels as the
defaults. Nothing changes until a variable is set. Release versioning,
build and publish, fix evidence and aggregate impact keep GitHub-hosted
runners. test_ci_runner_variables.py holds the workflows to this.

Fixes #2597

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis @claude
Give the jobs that can move a read-only token
f613672 
The organisation's default GITHUB_TOKEN can write, and Changes, the install
check, Lint and Docs had no permissions block, so a moved job would take a
write token to the other runner. They now read only; none of them uses the
token beyond checkout. test_ci_runner_variables.py checks every job that can
move holds no write scope apart from id-token.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis MaxGhenis mentioned this pull request Oct 23, 2026
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Aggregate impact on certified data: pass

Base 55cd7fb04b against head b620b9561b, both on enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5 (policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1, sha256 056e80fd8e91), fiscal years 2025-26 to 2031-32. Each year is a full microsimulation run on each side.

Checks: 0 broken by this change, 1 failing on both sides, 0 fixed. Moves flagged for review: 0 (thresholds in report_spec.yaml; a flag does not fail the job).

Workflow run and full report

Notes

  • In the years a figure from fewer than 10 records is suppressed (spending.disabled_students_allowance), every total containing it, and the decile incomes, are rebuilt from their other components, so no published total includes it. Those totals are marked †. A change is withheld where the two sides leave out different figures and can't be lined up.

Moves flagged for review

None.

Spending by benefit and service

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed

Caseloads

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed

Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance)

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise additional rate by 3pp 0 0 0 0 0 suppressed suppressed

Standard reforms: change in each reform's target

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax 0 0 0 0 0 suppressed suppressed

Household net income by decile

No household's net income changes in any year.

No change in any year: receipts by tax head; government balance, each component counted once; model totals; household income totals; population; poverty rates; people in poverty; inequality; mean household net income in each side's own deciles.

Checks failing on both base and head (1)
  • VAT is never negative (sign:vat): 2025-26: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-54,797,972 in total; 2026-27: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-56,271,349 in total; 2027-28: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-57,609,146 in total
Counted-once check

Each of 84 components was raised by £1 per unit in 2026-27, and every head of its totals was read household by household: its own head must rise by exactly £1, no other tax head may move, no other benefit may rise, and the model's own total must move by what its heads moved. A head that breaks a rule is measured again twice: with every other head held at its baseline value, and with every other head held at its value after the first £1 while the component rises again. It fails where either still shows the response. 0 failed; 0 were skipped.

Provenance
Side Commit Runtime Environment hash Partition hash Time
base main 55cd7fb04b uk 2.148.5 (files ceb0c292cc4a), core 3.33.2, py 3.13.17 aarch64 c2bcb36ae6e8 d4c1e9f08160 1588.81s
head #2598 merged into main b620b9561b uk 2.148.5 (files ceb0c292cc4a), core 3.33.2, py 3.13.17 aarch64 c2bcb36ae6e8 d4c1e9f08160 1573.6s

Dataset: hf://policyengine/policyengine-uk-data-private/enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5@2526edbbb687a3b54dbb11272e5389e4b62d2ac2, sha256 056e80fd8e9151d78f432a25cde863340baee81304c6216a37fb575ce8563784 (verified on both sides), policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1.

Receipts by tax head: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Income tax £299.29bn £319.01bn £336.54bn £351.69bn £367.24bn £385.36bn £403.66bn
National Insurance (employee and self-employed) £52.58bn £54.94bn £56.75bn £58.48bn £60.62bn £62.57bn £65.03bn
National Insurance (employer) £152.64bn £159.18bn £164.14bn £168.73bn £176.11bn £181.72bn £188.90bn
Employer NI change borne by capital £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Employer NI change borne by consumers £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Capital gains tax £12.62bn £13.06bn £13.55bn £14.04bn £14.54bn £15.09bn £15.65bn
Student loan repayments £7.83bn £8.12bn £8.35bn £8.56bn £8.79bn £9.04bn £9.38bn
VAT £253.71bn £260.53bn £266.72bn £273.14bn £279.83bn £286.71bn £293.71bn
Change in VAT from its baseline £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
VAT on private school fees £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Fuel duties £24.53bn £24.64bn £26.64bn £26.69bn £26.42bn £25.76bn £26.35bn
Alcohol duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Tobacco duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Vehicle excise duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
TV licence fee £4.28bn £4.43bn £4.44bn £4.46bn £4.48bn £4.51bn £4.53bn
Council tax £49.21bn £51.88bn £54.97bn £58.29bn £61.55bn £64.92bn £68.49bn
High value council tax surcharge £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.48bn £0.49bn £0.51bn £0.52bn
Northern Ireland domestic rates £0.55bn £0.58bn £0.61bn £0.63bn £0.67bn £0.70bn £0.73bn
Business rates £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn
Stamp duty land tax on the household's own purchases £6.93bn £7.42bn £7.85bn £8.26bn £8.68bn £9.09bn £9.51bn
Stamp duty land tax paid by companies £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn
Land transaction tax (Wales) £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Land and buildings transaction tax (Scotland) £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn
Unspecified tax change borne by capital £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Unspecified tax change borne by consumers £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Wealth tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Wealth tax excluding the main residence £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Land value tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Carbon tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Spending by benefit and service: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
State Pension £122.15bn £126.64bn £127.76bn £129.65bn £133.46bn £137.40bn £141.47bn
Pension Credit £6.68bn £7.07bn £7.09bn £7.16bn £7.28bn £7.42bn £7.52bn
Winter Fuel Payment £1.70bn £1.68bn £1.59bn £1.57bn £1.57bn £1.55bn £1.52bn
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland) £0.19bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.21bn £0.21bn £0.22bn £0.22bn
Universal Credit £75.54bn £80.75bn £83.40bn £85.21bn £86.21bn £87.61bn £88.91bn
Housing Benefit £8.59bn £8.93bn £9.19bn £9.33bn £9.61bn £9.87bn £10.15bn
Council Tax Reduction £1.98bn £2.03bn £2.07bn £2.11bn £2.16bn £2.21bn £2.25bn
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related) £0.79bn £0.81bn £0.83bn £0.85bn £0.87bn £0.89bn £0.91bn
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based) £5.22bn £5.36bn £5.49bn £5.62bn £5.76bn £5.90bn £6.04bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based) £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based) £0.29bn £0.30bn £0.30bn £0.31bn £0.32bn £0.33bn £0.33bn
Income Support £0.12bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Working Tax Credit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Child Tax Credit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Incapacity Benefit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Personal Independence Payment £27.05bn £28.19bn £29.28bn £30.02bn £30.75bn £31.51bn £32.28bn
Disability Living Allowance £7.52bn £7.83bn £8.14bn £8.34bn £8.55bn £8.76bn £8.97bn
Attendance Allowance £8.71bn £9.08bn £9.43bn £9.67bn £9.90bn £10.15bn £10.40bn
Carer's Allowance £4.50bn £4.69bn £4.87bn £4.99bn £5.11bn £5.23bn £5.36bn
Carer Support Payment (Scotland) £0.31bn £0.32bn £0.34bn £0.34bn £0.35bn £0.36bn £0.37bn
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland) £0.00bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn
Severe Disablement Allowance £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit £0.51bn £0.52bn £0.53bn £0.54bn £0.56bn £0.57bn £0.59bn
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme £0.61bn £0.62bn £0.64bn £0.65bn £0.67bn £0.69bn £0.70bn
War Widow's or Widower's Pension £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Child Benefit £16.23bn £16.91bn £17.53bn £17.96bn £18.39bn £18.84bn £19.29bn
Scottish Child Payment £0.50bn £0.52bn £0.53bn £0.55bn £0.56bn £0.57bn £0.58bn
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual) £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Healthy Start vouchers £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn
Maternity Allowance £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Statutory Maternity Pay £3.32bn £3.41bn £3.49bn £3.57bn £3.66bn £3.75bn £3.84bn
Statutory Paternity Pay £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Statutory Sick Pay £1.13bn £1.16bn £1.19bn £1.22bn £1.25bn £1.28bn £1.31bn
Sure Start Maternity Grant £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn
Bereavement Support Payment £0.67bn £0.69bn £0.70bn £0.72bn £0.74bn £0.76bn £0.78bn
Tax-Free Childcare £0.55bn £0.56bn £0.57bn £0.58bn £0.60bn £0.61bn £0.59bn
Extended childcare entitlement £2.77bn £3.27bn £3.36bn £3.43bn £3.53bn £3.61bn £3.70bn
Universal childcare entitlement £2.26bn £2.45bn £2.51bn £2.58bn £2.64bn £2.72bn £2.78bn
Targeted childcare entitlement £0.47bn £0.49bn £0.50bn £0.51bn £0.52bn £0.53bn £0.47bn
Care to Learn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Childcare Grant £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Parents' Learning Allowance £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn
Adult Dependants' Grant £0.06bn £0.06bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn
Travel Grant £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
NHS spending £204.68bn £205.46bn £206.22bn £207.04bn £207.96bn £208.89bn £209.79bn
State education spending £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn
Transport subsidy spending £25.15bn £25.25bn £25.34bn £25.44bn £25.55bn £25.67bn £25.78bn
Cost-of-living support payment £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Energy Bills Rebate £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Basic income £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Disability basic income £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Other public spending budget change £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Caseloads: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
State Pension 11,308k 11,208k 10,906k 10,812k 10,860k 10,908k 10,955k
Pension Credit 1,491k 1,489k 1,478k 1,459k 1,459k 1,456k 1,453k
Winter Fuel Payment 7,091k 7,011k 6,599k 6,512k 6,493k 6,379k 6,248k
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland) 806k 807k 807k 805k 809k 812k 816k
Universal Credit 6,361k 6,370k 6,404k 6,419k 6,390k 6,387k 6,368k
Housing Benefit 1,254k 1,252k 1,254k 1,239k 1,245k 1,247k 1,249k
Council Tax Reduction 3,187k 3,212k 3,224k 3,245k 3,262k 3,280k 3,294k
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related) 71k 71k 71k 72k 72k 72k 72k
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based) 722k 724k 727k 730k 733k 737k 740k
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based) 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based) 67k 67k 68k 68k 68k 69k 69k
Income Support 25k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Working Tax Credit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Child Tax Credit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Incapacity Benefit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Personal Independence Payment 3,581k 3,595k 3,608k 3,623k 3,639k 3,655k 3,671k
Disability Living Allowance 1,296k 1,301k 1,306k 1,311k 1,317k 1,323k 1,329k
Attendance Allowance 1,701k 1,708k 1,714k 1,721k 1,729k 1,736k 1,744k
Carer's Allowance 1,038k 1,042k 1,046k 1,050k 1,055k 1,059k 1,064k
Carer Support Payment (Scotland) 71k 72k 72k 72k 73k 73k 73k
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland) 0k 72k 72k 72k 73k 73k 73k
Severe Disablement Allowance 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit 137k 138k 139k 139k 140k 140k 141k
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme 94k 94k 94k 95k 95k 95k 96k
War Widow's or Widower's Pension 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Child Benefit 8,136k 8,165k 8,185k 8,215k 8,249k 8,282k 8,314k
Scottish Child Payment 352k 354k 355k 359k 357k 358k 357k
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual) 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Healthy Start vouchers 200k 201k 202k 203k 204k 204k 205k
Maternity Allowance 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Statutory Maternity Pay 334k 335k 336k 338k 339k 341k 342k
Statutory Paternity Pay 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Statutory Sick Pay 182k 183k 183k 184k 185k 186k 186k
Sure Start Maternity Grant 26k 26k 26k 27k 27k 27k 27k
Bereavement Support Payment 98k 98k 99k 99k 100k 100k 101k
Tax-Free Childcare 1,018k 1,029k 1,028k 1,033k 1,034k 1,039k 1,023k
Extended childcare entitlement 718k 724k 728k 732k 737k 741k 743k
Universal childcare entitlement 986k 989k 992k 997k 1,002k 1,013k 1,015k
Targeted childcare entitlement 98k 98k 96k 96k 96k 97k 84k
Care to Learn 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Childcare Grant 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Parents' Learning Allowance 98k 99k 99k 100k 100k 100k 101k
Adult Dependants' Grant 18k 18k 12k 13k 13k 13k 13k
Travel Grant 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Cost-of-living support payment 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Energy Bills Rebate 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Basic income 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Disability basic income 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Government balance, each component counted once: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Government receipts, each component once £899.03bn £938.67bn £975.44bn £1,008.36bn £1,044.30bn £1,080.86bn £1,121.34bn
Government spending £530.58bn † £545.59bn † £553.49bn † £560.60bn † £569.15bn † £578.31bn † £587.34bn †
Government balance, each receipt once £368.44bn † £393.08bn † £421.95bn † £447.75bn † £475.14bn † £502.55bn † £534.00bn †
Benefits in household_benefits but not in gov_spending £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Model totals: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
gov_tax £899.03bn £938.67bn £975.44bn £1,008.36bn £1,044.30bn £1,080.86bn £1,121.34bn
household_tax £492.68bn £518.96bn £544.57bn £566.48bn £588.35bn £612.42bn £638.73bn
pre_budget_change_household_tax £484.85bn £510.84bn £536.22bn £557.44bn £579.07bn £602.88bn £628.84bn
gov_spending £530.58bn † £545.59bn † £553.49bn † £560.60bn † £569.15bn † £578.31bn † £587.34bn †
household_benefits £530.58bn † £545.59bn † £553.49bn † £560.60bn † £569.15bn † £578.31bn † £587.34bn †
gov_balance £368.44bn † £393.08bn † £421.95bn † £447.75bn † £475.14bn † £502.55bn † £534.00bn †
Household income totals: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Household market income £1,657.06bn £1,719.25bn £1,771.68bn £1,821.99bn £1,872.88bn £1,930.99bn £2,001.98bn
Household net income £1,655.70bn † £1,705.12bn † £1,738.71bn † £1,773.17bn † £1,809.60bn † £1,851.54bn † £1,903.54bn †
Household net income (HBAI definition) £1,462.17bn £1,509.90bn £1,543.94bn £1,577.28bn £1,611.67bn £1,651.05bn £1,701.84bn
Population: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
People 69,514k 69,778k 70,036k 70,316k 70,626k 70,944k 71,249k
Benefit units 35,247k 35,381k 35,512k 35,654k 35,811k 35,972k 36,127k
Households 31,167k 31,285k 31,401k 31,526k 31,665k 31,808k 31,944k
Poverty rates: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone 16.1% 15.2% 15.5% 15.7% 15.7% 15.8% 15.8%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children 24.2% 21.4% 21.6% 21.6% 21.7% 22.0% 21.8%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 13.9% 13.5% 14.0% 14.2% 14.2% 14.3% 14.3%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 13.7% 13.2% 13.2% 13.4% 13.5% 13.5% 13.5%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone 21.6% 20.9% 21.4% 21.6% 21.9% 22.1% 22.3%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children 33.4% 30.9% 31.1% 31.3% 31.5% 32.0% 32.3%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 19.9% 19.7% 20.3% 20.5% 20.8% 21.0% 21.1%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 12.8% 12.6% 12.6% 12.9% 13.1% 13.4% 13.4%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone 17.2% 16.5% 16.5% 16.6% 16.4% 16.4% 16.4%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children 26.4% 23.7% 23.4% 23.4% 22.9% 23.0% 22.9%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 14.7% 14.4% 14.7% 14.8% 14.7% 14.8% 14.8%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 14.8% 14.8% 14.1% 14.2% 14.0% 14.0% 14.1%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone 21.7% 21.1% 21.3% 21.3% 21.4% 21.4% 21.7%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children 33.5% 31.3% 31.0% 30.8% 31.0% 31.0% 31.5%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 19.9% 19.8% 20.2% 20.3% 20.5% 20.5% 20.7%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 13.0% 12.7% 12.6% 12.2% 12.1% 12.2% 12.5%
People in poverty: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone 11,163k 10,583k 10,866k 11,011k 11,088k 11,228k 11,233k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children 3,629k 3,221k 3,263k 3,284k 3,310k 3,369k 3,350k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 5,902k 5,806k 6,087k 6,198k 6,235k 6,305k 6,321k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 1,632k 1,556k 1,515k 1,529k 1,543k 1,555k 1,562k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone 15,000k 14,571k 14,968k 15,173k 15,433k 15,708k 15,854k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children 5,004k 4,656k 4,703k 4,745k 4,808k 4,897k 4,966k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 8,476k 8,431k 8,814k 8,960k 9,130k 9,273k 9,341k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 1,520k 1,484k 1,451k 1,468k 1,496k 1,538k 1,547k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone 11,974k 11,507k 11,542k 11,648k 11,548k 11,670k 11,705k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children 3,963k 3,570k 3,543k 3,553k 3,489k 3,519k 3,518k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 6,246k 6,184k 6,378k 6,475k 6,459k 6,538k 6,554k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 1,765k 1,753k 1,621k 1,620k 1,600k 1,613k 1,633k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone 15,067k 14,732k 14,895k 14,945k 15,110k 15,214k 15,475k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children 5,019k 4,715k 4,686k 4,669k 4,725k 4,753k 4,839k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 8,497k 8,516k 8,764k 8,884k 8,994k 9,060k 9,195k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 1,551k 1,502k 1,445k 1,392k 1,391k 1,401k 1,441k
Inequality: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Gini coefficient, equivalised HBAI income before housing costs 0.3088 0.3061 0.3068 0.3074 0.3078 0.3084 0.3095
Mean household net income in each side's own deciles: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household £17,841 † £18,023 † £18,040 † £18,084 † £18,438 † £18,627 † £18,803 †
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household £28,086 † £29,021 † £28,787 † £29,226 † £29,487 † £29,939 † £30,568 †
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household £34,361 † £35,678 † £36,193 † £36,764 † £37,055 † £37,700 † £38,313 †
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household £38,776 † £40,951 † £42,048 † £42,647 † £43,424 † £44,189 † £44,704 †
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household £43,948 † £44,841 † £45,903 † £46,641 † £47,851 † £48,655 † £49,864 †
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household £48,438 † £49,772 † £50,873 † £51,669 † £51,947 † £53,410 † £54,725 †
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household £56,400 † £57,626 † £58,395 † £59,133 † £60,160 † £60,960 † £62,360 †
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household £69,281 † £70,763 † £72,241 † £73,343 † £74,868 † £76,016 † £78,283 †
Decile 9: mean household_net_income per household £79,811 † £82,188 † £83,310 † £84,759 † £86,323 † £87,891 † £90,929 †
Decile 10: mean household_net_income per household £117,852 † £120,687 † £122,639 † £124,783 † £127,005 † £129,364 † £132,261 †
Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance): head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp £6.22bn £6.50bn £6.70bn £6.90bn £7.11bn £7.34bn £7.62bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp £3.54bn £3.82bn £4.05bn £4.27bn £4.49bn £4.76bn £4.96bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year £-3.83bn £-3.96bn £-4.03bn £-4.10bn £-4.19bn £-4.30bn £-2.02bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child £-2.00bn £-1.76bn £-1.58bn £-1.48bn £-1.38bn £-1.28bn £-1.17bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20% £-20.49bn £-21.05bn £-21.50bn £-21.94bn £-22.03bn £-22.40bn £-22.87bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10% £11.07bn £11.51bn £11.84bn £12.14bn £12.49bn £12.83bn £13.23bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp £25.01bn £25.68bn £26.29bn £26.92bn £27.58bn £28.26bn £28.95bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp £2.83bn £3.07bn £3.27bn £3.47bn £3.67bn suppressed suppressed
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10% £-3.03bn £-3.16bn £-3.28bn £-3.35bn £-3.39bn £-3.44bn £-3.51bn
Raise the State Pension by 10% £-7.81bn £-8.07bn £-7.99bn £-8.11bn £-8.36bn £-8.66bn £-9.02bn
Standard reforms: change in each reform's target: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp: change in income_tax £6.36bn £6.65bn £6.86bn £7.07bn £7.28bn £7.52bn £7.80bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp: change in income_tax £3.55bn £3.83bn £4.06bn £4.28bn £4.50bn £4.77bn £4.97bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year: change in income_tax £-3.96bn £-4.10bn £-4.19bn £-4.26bn £-4.36bn £-4.47bn £-1.77bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child: change in child_benefit £2.34bn £2.15bn £1.96bn £1.85bn £1.74bn £1.63bn £1.51bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%: change in universal_credit £20.48bn £21.04bn £21.49bn £21.93bn £22.02bn £22.40bn £22.86bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%: change in national_insurance £11.33bn £11.79bn £12.13bn £12.44bn £12.78bn £13.13bn £13.62bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp: change in vat £25.01bn £25.68bn £26.29bn £26.92bn £27.58bn £28.26bn £28.95bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax £2.83bn £3.07bn £3.27bn £3.47bn £3.67bn suppressed suppressed
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%: change in universal_credit £3.03bn £3.16bn £3.28bn £3.36bn £3.41bn £3.47bn £3.52bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%: change in state_pension £10.72bn £11.23bn £11.37bn £11.62bn £12.08bn £12.54bn £13.07bn

@MaxGhenis @claude
Skip the runner-variable test in the installed wheel
c78f886 
The release workflow runs the test suite on the installed wheel, which has
no .github folder, so the test could not find the workflows and failed,
which would block Publish. It now skips at module level there, with the
reason the test-outcome allowlist accepts for code_health tests in wheel
mode, as test_aggregate_impact_workflow.py does.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis
MaxGhenis marked this pull request as ready for review October 24, 2026 00:46
@MaxGhenis
MaxGhenis added this pull request to the merge queue Oct 24, 2026
@MaxGhenis

MaxGhenis commented Oct 24, 2026

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Queued for merge on Max's go ("Merge policyengine-uk#2598 and policyengine.py#706 on their normal gates", 2026-10-24). Handing it to the UK hub for merge order.

  • Head queued: c78f886 (enqueued 00:47Z with expectedHeadOid, position 44).
  • Checks at that head: 33 pass and 1 skipped (Publish), including "Release test / Result" and "Fix evidence". gh pr checks exited 0 right before queueing.
  • Independent review: two Opus 5.5 reviews of the runner-capacity work. Round 1 found that the new test would fail in the wheel-mode release run and block Publish; c78f886 skips it there, matching the allowlist. Round 2 checked that fix end to end (wheel layout, outcome log, check_test_shards.py --mode wheel exits 0) and approved with fixes, all of them in the report. The Codex lanes were closed, so there was no GPT-6.1 Sol pass. Record: ~/reviews/ci-runner-capacity-2026-10/REVISIONS.md.
  • Main has had no workflow changes since the branch was cut; the queue re-runs CI on the merged result anyway.
  • Depends on nothing. policyengine.py#706 (the same change there) merged at 00:46Z. Decision d1907.

Nothing changes until someone sets CI_RUNNER_X64 or CI_RUNNER_EVENTS on this repository; until then every job keeps its current runner. The read-only token on the moved jobs takes effect on merge. No follow-ups owed on this PR.

Merged via the queue into main with commit f153a60 Oct 24, 2026
56 of 65 checks passed
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MaxGhenis deleted the ci/runner-variables branch October 24, 2026 17:54
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Let CI test jobs use another runner pool, set by repository variables

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@MaxGhenis