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Give both OBR placements of Northern Ireland domestic rates in the fiscal partition - #2663

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Give both OBR placements of Northern Ireland domestic rates in the fiscal partition#2663
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@MaxGhenis MaxGhenis commented Oct 25, 2026 •
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Fixes #2662

What changed

Documentation only: the domestic_rates head and a source entry in policyengine_uk/data/fiscal_partition.yaml, one comment in policyengine_uk/parameters/gov/economic_assumptions/yoy_growth.yaml, and a changelog fragment. No model code, parameter value or variable changes.

  • domestic_rates.obr_line_note rewritten. It used to say only that "The OBR adds Northern Irish domestic rates to its council tax receipts". domestic_rates charges the whole NI domestic bill (regional rate plus district rate, levied as one bill). The note now gives both places the OBR shows NI domestic rates. The OBR labels neither as regional or district.

    • Expenditure Table 4.1 row 16, "NI domestic rates". A flat £0.494bn in every column from the 2024-25 outturn to 2030-31, inside net council tax receipts. This line appears to be the district rates.
    • Receipts Table 3.2 row 6, "Northern Ireland domestic rates". £485.3m in 2024-25, under "Other taxes". This line appears to cover the regional rate only.

    The OBR defines neither line, so "appears to" stays throughout. The note also:

    • gives the ONS rows (regional £498m, central government; district £441m, local government, grouped with council tax);
    • says the reading rests on where each line sits, not on its size. The £0.494bn line is nearer ONS's regional row than its district row, and the two lines together (£0.979bn) exceed both LPS (£889.5m) and ONS's two rows (£939m);
    • says that in the 2024-25 outturn, March 2026 Table A.5's council tax row (£47.417bn) is £0.273bn below Table 4.1's total (£47.690bn). Whether that row includes NI domestic rates in that year is therefore not established; the two agree in every forecast year;
    • explains obr_table_3_1: null;
    • points to the gov.economic_assumptions.yoy_growth.finance_ni.domestic_rates comment (d870), which has the evidence.

  • domestic_rates.data_note (new). It gives the head's measured level on the certified dataset against LPS, and points to Northern Ireland domestic rates: low level and district-only OBR target policyengine-uk-data#520, which tracks the gap and uk-data's obr/domestic_rates target.

  • sources.ni_domestic_rates (new). The two OBR tables, the ONS rows and the LPS series.

  • uncovered_receipts is unchanged (it matches main).

    • Review r1 found that the first draft's "partly measured" note on Other taxes contradicted the list's definition, "rows of Table A.5 the model has no household measure for". The r1 fix redefined the list, and review r2 then found that redefinition needs a schema_version bump under the file's own rule.
    • A bump would break consumers outside this repo. policyengine.py's provenance/uk_candidate.py runs a vendored copy of pe_uk_aggregate_impact on the installed policyengine-uk partition. policyengine-uk-data's pull_request.yaml runs the tool at a pinned policyengine-uk commit. Both accept only version 1, and no code reads uncovered_receipts except the closure test.
    • So this PR keeps the definition and drops the note. The overlap is documented on the two heads, as inference: the regional parts of the NI domestic and business rates appear to sit in Other taxes. The list's wording was already imprecise before this PR, since business_rates includes NI. A schema change to fix it would have to be coordinated with those consumers.

  • The finance_ni.domestic_rates comment in yoy_growth.yaml gets the same "placement, not size" clause. Its opening "Neither OBR March 2026 line covers the whole bill" now rests on size: each line is about half of LPS's £889.5m.

obr_line and obr_table_3_1: unchanged, and why

  • obr_line: Council tax stays.
    • The schema allows one Table A.5 row per head, and this head appears to span two (Council tax and Other taxes).
    • Council tax is the one placement the OBR states: its council tax page says net receipts "are arrived at by adding a forecast of Northern Irish domestic rates to the accrued receipts forecasts for Great Britain".
    • Moving the head to Other taxes would also take that row out of uncovered_receipts. The row is £12.97bn in 2024-25, almost all unmodelled.
    • The note keeps the scope conditional: if the regional and district reading holds, the head corresponds to the two lines together.
  • obr_table_3_1: null stays.
    • Table 3.1's footnotes (March 2026 EFO) put council tax in PSNB-neutral receipts but do not name NI domestic rates.
    • Footnote 3 also puts the community infrastructure levy, a Table 3.2 line, in PSNB-neutral receipts. So Table 3.1's "Other taxes" is not the same as the A.5 row.
    • high_value_council_tax_surcharge carries PSNB-neutral receipts because it sits wholly on the council tax row. This head appears to span two rows.

What reads these fields

  • policyengine_uk/tests/test_fiscal_partition.py::test_partition_schema. It checks that obr_line is a Table A.5 tax row, and that heads' obr_line values and uncovered_receipts are disjoint and together cover every row.
  • policyengine_uk/utils/aggregate_impact/partition.py. It copies obr_line and the head notes into Head. as_dict() exports them in the report JSON's partition block.
    • No code compares obr_line with OBR figures, so this PR moves no aggregate.
    • The aggregate-impact report will warn that the partition changed (compare.py: "This change edits the fiscal partition…"), since the file's SHA-256 changes. Its numbers should be unchanged.
  • policyengine-uk-data does not read the partition. Its targets/sources/obr.py (_parse_council_tax) builds obr/domestic_rates from the Table 4.1 line alone. That is uk-data#520 and is not changed here.

Real run (level, for context)

domestic_rates on the pinned certified dataset (policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1, HF commit 2526edbb, SHA-256 056e80fd… verified), weighted by household_weight.

  • Re-run for r2 with recorded provenance. policyengine-uk 2.158.2, imported from this worktree at c7cdbfc98. git status shows policyengine_uk/{variables,parameters,reforms,data} clean. Output: measure_domestic_rates_r2.json.
  • First run. Launched from this worktree when git rev-parse HEAD printed eb0b8087d (main). It gave identical totals.
  • This PR changes no model code.
Year Total Of which NI NI households paying
2024 (FRS 2024-25) £0.524bn £0.524bn 0.654m
2025 £0.550bn £0.550bn 0.656m
2026 £0.576bn £0.576bn 0.658m

LPS reports £889.5m of domestic rates paid in 2024-25 and £947.9m in 2025-26. Script and outputs: ~/reviews/uk-ni-domestic-rates-partition-2662/measure_domestic_rates{.py,.json,.log,_r2.json,_r2.log}.

Cells verified

The local copies of the OBR workbooks have the same SHA-256 as the files policyengine-uk-data commits in targets/source_manifests/obr_march_2026.yaml (receipts f65b6cb7…, expenditure 700bfd70…). obr.uk returns a bot challenge to scripted downloads.

  • OBR expenditure Table 4.1. Row 16 is 0.494 in every column. The footnote (cell B20) calls the table a breakdown of Table A.5's council tax line. Row 19, total net council tax receipts, is 47.6899 in 2024-25.
  • OBR receipts Table 3.2. Row 6 is 0.4853 in 2024-25. The footnote (cell B32) says the table is consistent with Table A.5's other taxes line.
  • OBR annex Table A.5 (March 2026). Row 18, council tax, is 47.417 in 2024-25 and equals Table 4.1 row 19 in every forecast year. Row 40, other taxes, is 12.9688.
  • OBR council tax page. The quotation above.
  • EFO March 2026 Table 3.1, footnote 3. "Include council tax, VAT refunds, environmental levies, extended producer responsibility, and community infrastructure levy."
  • ONS.
    • CRPSF FYE2025, Northern Ireland sheet: row 51 regional domestic 498 and row 52 district domestic 441 (2024-25).
    • The methodology guide's section 29 is headed "Council Tax and Northern Ireland District Domestic Rates".
    • Blue Book 2025 Table 10.1 has "Other current taxes paid to central government: Northern Ireland domestic rates" and "...paid to local government: Domestic rates" (note 58: NI only since 1990/91).
  • LPS. "Domestic Rates paid as at 31st March 2025", Northern Ireland: £889,543,160.

Review

  • r1 (Subfleet review --tier hard, served by Opus 5.5 because no Codex lane was open; ~/reviews/uk-ni-domestic-rates-partition-2662/review/review_r1.md): REQUEST_CHANGES, eight findings. All are addressed in c7cdbfc:
    1. The outturn A.5/4.1 mismatch is now stated.
    2. Placement, not size, is now stated, here and in yoy_growth.yaml.
    3. The uncovered_receipts definition was changed to match the closure test. r2 reverted this; the note was dropped instead.
    4. The LPS figure is reworded so it does not read as the head's level.
    5. "See those heads" held once Document that Northern Ireland business rates count regional and district rates #2344 merged and main was merged in. The note that contained it was later dropped under r2.
    6. The aggregate-impact partition warning is stated above.
    7. The cell references and run provenance are corrected.
    8. obr_table_3_1: null is explained in the note.
  • r2 (Subfleet review --tier hard, GPT-6.1 Sol; review/review_r2.md): REQUEST_CHANGES. It confirmed every number and mechanism claim, and marked r1 findings 1-6 and 8 resolved. Addressed in 1e7b265:
    1. MEDIUM, a schema_version bump for the redefinition: the redefinition is reverted instead, for the reason given under "What changed".
    2. Conditional wording: "the head appears to span two Table A.5 rows". The yoy_growth.yaml opening now rests on size.
    3. Provenance: the measurement was re-run with the git head and model version recorded (see "Real run").
    4. Clarity: the repeated regional sentence is gone, and ONS and the Family Resources Survey are spelled out.
  • r3 (GPT-6.1 Sol; review/review_r3.md): APPROVE at 0ba211760. All r2 findings are resolved. One LOW nit on PR-body wording ("appears to span") is fixed in this body.

Tests

  • uv run --frozen pytest -n 4 policyengine_uk/tests/test_fiscal_partition.py policyengine_uk/tests/aggregate_impact/test_aggregate_impact_partition.py policyengine_uk/tests/test_domestic_rates_uprating.py: 67 passed.
  • load_partition parses the file.
  • ruff format --check . and ruff check . are clean.

Reproducer: n/a: documentation-only change to partition metadata and a parameter comment; the fragment is changed, not fixed.

axiom: n/a: partition metadata and a comment documenting OBR receipt lines; no policy provision changes

Related: #2343 and #2344 (the NI business rates note, now merged), PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk-data#520, PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk-data#584.

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

@MaxGhenis @claude
Give both OBR placements of NI domestic rates in the fiscal partition
64e63f0 
The domestic_rates note said only that the OBR adds NI domestic rates to
council tax receipts. The OBR's March 2026 tables show them in two places,
labelled neither regional nor district: expenditure Table 4.1 "NI domestic
rates" (£0.494bn flat, inside council tax) and receipts Table 3.2 "Northern
Ireland domestic rates" (£485.3m in 2024-25, other taxes). domestic_rates
charges the whole bill. The note now gives both, with the regional and
district attribution stated as inference, as in the finance_ni.domestic_rates
comment (d870). The head keeps the Council tax row, where the OBR says it
adds NI domestic rates; the Other taxes row of uncovered_receipts records
that its two NI lines are partly measured.

Fixes #2662

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@github-actions

github-actions Bot commented Oct 25, 2026 •
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Aggregate impact on certified data: pass

Base e0998eee74 against head 9ed9f7e083, both on enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5 (policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1, sha256 056e80fd8e91), fiscal years 2025-26 to 2031-32. Each year is a full microsimulation run on each side.

Checks: 0 broken by this change, 1 failing on both sides, 0 fixed. Moves flagged for review: 0 (thresholds in report_spec.yaml; a flag does not fail the job).

Workflow run and full report

Notes

  • This change edits the fiscal partition; review the partition diff alongside the moves it explains.
  • In the years a figure from fewer than 10 records is suppressed (spending.disabled_students_allowance), every total containing it, and the decile incomes, are rebuilt from their other components, so no published total includes it. Those totals are marked †. A change is withheld where the two sides leave out different figures and can't be lined up.

Moves flagged for review

None.

Spending by benefit and service

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed

Caseloads

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed

Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance)

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise additional rate by 3pp 0 0 0 0 0 suppressed suppressed

Standard reforms: change in each reform's target

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax 0 0 0 0 0 suppressed suppressed

Household net income by decile

No household's net income changes in any year.

No change in any year: receipts by tax head; government balance, each component counted once; model totals; household income totals; population; poverty rates; people in poverty; inequality; mean household net income in each side's own deciles.

Checks failing on both base and head (1)
  • VAT excluding private school fees is never negative (sign:vat): 2025-26: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-53,889,156 in total; 2026-27: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-55,420,387 in total; 2027-28: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-56,618,038 in total
Counted-once check

Each of 88 components was raised by £1 per unit in 2026-27, and every head of its totals was read household by household: its own head must rise by exactly £1, no other tax head may move, no other benefit may rise, and the model's own total must move by what its heads moved. A head that breaks a rule is measured again twice: with every other head held at its baseline value, and with every other head held at its value after the first £1 while the component rises again. It fails where either still shows the response. 0 failed; 0 were skipped.

  • widowed_parents_allowance: pension_credit responds only through other heads in fewer than 10 households (other heads that moved there: carers_allowance; gov_spending; not a failure)
  • widowed_parents_allowance: pension_credit responds only through other heads in fewer than 10 households (other heads that moved there: carers_allowance; household_benefits; not a failure)
Provenance
Side Commit Runtime Environment hash Partition hash Time
base main e0998eee74 uk 2.160.0 (files 84060fae80ac), core 3.33.2, py 3.13.17 aarch64 3436b73d44a4 9a54a111ed04 1733.39s
head #2663 merged into main 9ed9f7e083 uk 2.160.0 (files 9c1b15a7a075), core 3.33.2, py 3.13.17 aarch64 3436b73d44a4 047f326904e5 1746.93s

Dataset: hf://policyengine/policyengine-uk-data-private/enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5@2526edbbb687a3b54dbb11272e5389e4b62d2ac2, sha256 056e80fd8e9151d78f432a25cde863340baee81304c6216a37fb575ce8563784 (verified on both sides), policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1.

Receipts by tax head: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Income tax £298.70bn £318.31bn £335.60bn £350.52bn £365.79bn £383.53bn £401.03bn
National Insurance (employee and self-employed) £52.37bn £54.71bn £56.48bn £58.15bn £60.22bn £62.11bn £64.44bn
National Insurance (employer) £150.59bn £156.99bn £161.74bn £166.13bn £173.24bn £178.59bn £185.29bn
Employer NI change borne by capital £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Employer NI change borne by consumers £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Capital gains tax £12.61bn £13.05bn £13.53bn £14.02bn £14.52bn £15.05bn £15.58bn
Student loan repayments £7.79bn £8.09bn £8.31bn £8.51bn £8.72bn £8.97bn £9.28bn
VAT excluding private school fees £249.37bn £255.28bn £261.81bn £267.87bn £274.12bn £280.56bn £286.81bn
Change in VAT from its baseline £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
VAT on private school fees £1.95bn £2.00bn £2.05bn £2.10bn £2.21bn £2.21bn £2.31bn
Change in private school VAT from its baseline £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Fuel duties £24.53bn £24.64bn £26.64bn £26.69bn £26.42bn £25.76bn £26.35bn
Alcohol duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Tobacco duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Vehicle excise duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Betting and gaming duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
TV licence fee £4.26bn £4.41bn £4.42bn £4.44bn £4.45bn £4.47bn £4.48bn
Council tax £49.21bn £51.88bn £54.97bn £58.29bn £61.55bn £64.92bn £68.49bn
High value council tax surcharge £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.48bn £0.49bn £0.50bn £0.51bn
Northern Ireland domestic rates £0.55bn £0.58bn £0.60bn £0.63bn £0.66bn £0.69bn £0.72bn
Business rates £34.68bn £38.04bn £38.88bn £39.76bn £43.07bn £43.13bn £44.57bn
Stamp duty land tax on the household's own purchases £6.90bn £7.39bn £7.81bn £8.21bn £8.62bn £9.02bn £9.42bn
Stamp duty land tax paid by companies £4.81bn £5.98bn £6.73bn £7.46bn £8.21bn £8.87bn £9.16bn
Land transaction tax (Wales) £0.07bn £0.08bn £0.09bn £0.09bn £0.10bn £0.10bn £0.11bn
Land and buildings transaction tax (Scotland) £0.31bn £0.32bn £0.34bn £0.35bn £0.37bn £0.38bn £0.40bn
Unspecified tax change borne by capital £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Unspecified tax change borne by consumers £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Wealth tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Wealth tax excluding the main residence £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Land value tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Carbon tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Spending by benefit and service: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
State Pension £121.64bn £126.07bn £127.08bn £128.87bn £132.52bn £136.31bn £140.08bn
Pension Credit £6.66bn £7.04bn £7.32bn £7.46bn £7.60bn £7.77bn £7.94bn
Winter Fuel Payment £1.86bn £1.86bn £1.80bn £1.78bn £1.79bn £1.79bn £1.80bn
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland) £0.19bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.21bn £0.21bn £0.22bn £0.22bn
Universal Credit £75.21bn £80.38bn £82.93bn £84.23bn £85.58bn £86.87bn £87.97bn
Housing Benefit £8.55bn £8.89bn £9.17bn £9.31bn £9.58bn £9.84bn £10.10bn
Council Tax Reduction £1.98bn £2.02bn £2.07bn £2.11bn £2.16bn £2.21bn £2.25bn
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related) £0.79bn £0.81bn £0.83bn £0.85bn £0.86bn £0.89bn £0.90bn
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based) £5.20bn £5.34bn £5.46bn £5.59bn £5.72bn £5.85bn £5.99bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based) £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based) £0.29bn £0.30bn £0.30bn £0.31bn £0.32bn £0.32bn £0.33bn
Income Support £0.12bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Working Tax Credit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Child Tax Credit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Incapacity Benefit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Personal Independence Payment £26.94bn £28.06bn £29.13bn £29.83bn £30.54bn £31.26bn £31.96bn
Disability Living Allowance £7.49bn £7.80bn £8.10bn £8.29bn £8.49bn £8.69bn £8.88bn
Attendance Allowance £8.68bn £9.04bn £9.38bn £9.61bn £9.83bn £10.07bn £10.29bn
Carer's Allowance £4.48bn £4.67bn £4.84bn £4.96bn £5.08bn £5.19bn £5.31bn
Carer Support Payment (Scotland) £0.31bn £0.32bn £0.33bn £0.34bn £0.35bn £0.36bn £0.37bn
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland) £0.00bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn
Severe Disablement Allowance £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit £0.50bn £0.52bn £0.53bn £0.54bn £0.55bn £0.57bn £0.58bn
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme £0.61bn £0.62bn £0.64bn £0.65bn £0.67bn £0.68bn £0.70bn
War Widow's or Widower's Pension £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Child Benefit £16.16bn £16.83bn £17.43bn £17.85bn £18.26bn £18.69bn £19.10bn
Scottish Child Payment £0.49bn £0.52bn £0.54bn £0.55bn £0.56bn £0.57bn £0.56bn
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual) £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Healthy Start vouchers £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn
Maternity Allowance £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Statutory Maternity Pay £3.30bn £3.39bn £3.47bn £3.55bn £3.63bn £3.72bn £3.80bn
Statutory Paternity Pay £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Statutory Sick Pay £1.12bn £1.15bn £1.18bn £1.21bn £1.24bn £1.27bn £1.29bn
Sure Start Maternity Grant £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn
Bereavement Support Payment £0.67bn £0.69bn £0.70bn £0.72bn £0.73bn £0.75bn £0.77bn
Widowed Parent's Allowance £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Tax-Free Childcare £0.55bn £0.56bn £0.57bn £0.58bn £0.59bn £0.61bn £0.59bn
Extended childcare entitlement £2.99bn £3.50bn £3.60bn £3.67bn £3.77bn £3.85bn £3.94bn
Universal childcare entitlement £2.05bn £2.23bn £2.28bn £2.34bn £2.40bn £2.47bn £2.52bn
Targeted childcare entitlement £0.50bn £0.51bn £0.52bn £0.53bn £0.54bn £0.56bn £0.52bn
Childcare Offer for Wales £0.26bn £0.28bn £0.28bn £0.29bn £0.30bn £0.30bn £0.31bn
Care to Learn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Childcare Grant £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Parents' Learning Allowance £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn
Adult Dependants' Grant £0.06bn £0.06bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn
Travel Grant £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
NHS spending £203.83bn £204.54bn £205.13bn £205.79bn £206.49bn £207.23bn £207.73bn
State education spending £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn
Transport subsidy spending £25.05bn £25.13bn £25.21bn £25.29bn £25.37bn £25.46bn £25.53bn
Cost-of-living support payment £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Energy Bills Rebate £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Basic income £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Disability basic income £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Other public spending budget change £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Caseloads: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
State Pension 11,261k 11,158k 10,849k 10,746k 10,783k 10,822k 10,848k
Pension Credit 1,485k 1,483k 1,480k 1,461k 1,462k 1,464k 1,460k
Winter Fuel Payment 7,842k 7,793k 7,494k 7,407k 7,432k 7,459k 7,477k
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland) 803k 803k 803k 800k 803k 806k 808k
Universal Credit 6,334k 6,341k 6,366k 6,347k 6,345k 6,333k 6,298k
Housing Benefit 1,249k 1,247k 1,250k 1,234k 1,238k 1,240k 1,239k
Council Tax Reduction 3,175k 3,198k 3,209k 3,229k 3,244k 3,257k 3,264k
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related) 71k 71k 71k 71k 71k 72k 72k
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based) 719k 721k 723k 726k 728k 731k 732k
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based) 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based) 67k 67k 67k 68k 68k 68k 68k
Income Support 25k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Working Tax Credit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Child Tax Credit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Incapacity Benefit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Personal Independence Payment 3,566k 3,579k 3,589k 3,601k 3,613k 3,626k 3,635k
Disability Living Allowance 1,291k 1,295k 1,299k 1,303k 1,308k 1,312k 1,316k
Attendance Allowance 1,694k 1,700k 1,705k 1,711k 1,716k 1,723k 1,727k
Carer's Allowance 1,034k 1,038k 1,041k 1,044k 1,048k 1,051k 1,053k
Carer Support Payment (Scotland) 71k 71k 72k 72k 72k 72k 73k
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland) 0k 71k 72k 72k 72k 72k 73k
Severe Disablement Allowance 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit 137k 137k 138k 138k 139k 139k 140k
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme 93k 93k 94k 94k 94k 95k 95k
War Widow's or Widower's Pension 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Child Benefit 8,102k 8,128k 8,142k 8,165k 8,191k 8,216k 8,232k
Scottish Child Payment 350k 352k 353k 357k 354k 355k 342k
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual) 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Healthy Start vouchers 199k 200k 201k 201k 202k 203k 203k
Maternity Allowance 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Statutory Maternity Pay 332k 334k 335k 336k 337k 338k 339k
Statutory Paternity Pay 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Statutory Sick Pay 181k 182k 182k 183k 183k 184k 185k
Sure Start Maternity Grant 26k 26k 26k 26k 26k 27k 27k
Bereavement Support Payment 98k 98k 98k 99k 99k 99k 100k
Widowed Parent's Allowance 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Tax-Free Childcare 1,014k 1,024k 1,024k 1,027k 1,027k 1,031k 1,013k
Extended childcare entitlement 796k 801k 806k 809k 815k 819k 820k
Universal childcare entitlement 1,071k 1,074k 1,077k 1,080k 1,086k 1,096k 1,097k
Targeted childcare entitlement 165k 156k 154k 155k 155k 156k 144k
Childcare Offer for Wales 39k 39k 39k 39k 39k 39k 39k
Care to Learn 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Childcare Grant 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Parents' Learning Allowance 98k 98k 99k 99k 99k 100k 100k
Adult Dependants' Grant 18k 18k 12k 12k 12k 13k 13k
Travel Grant 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Cost-of-living support payment 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Energy Bills Rebate 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Basic income 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Disability basic income 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Government balance, each component counted once: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Government receipts, each component once £898.70bn £941.74bn £979.99bn £1,013.71bn £1,052.76bn £1,088.87bn £1,128.96bn
Government spending £528.87bn † £543.67bn † £551.43bn † £557.71bn † £566.13bn † £574.77bn † £582.74bn †
Government balance, each receipt once £369.83bn † £398.07bn † £428.56bn † £456.00bn † £486.63bn † £514.10bn † £546.22bn †
Benefits in household_benefits but not in gov_spending £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Model totals: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
gov_tax £898.70bn £941.74bn £979.99bn £1,013.71bn £1,052.76bn £1,088.87bn £1,128.96bn
household_tax £496.79bn £527.48bn £554.39bn £577.61bn £603.19bn £627.52bn £654.55bn
pre_budget_change_household_tax £489.00bn £519.39bn £546.08bn £568.63bn £593.98bn £618.05bn £644.75bn
gov_spending £528.87bn † £543.67bn † £551.43bn † £557.71bn † £566.13bn † £574.77bn † £582.74bn †
household_benefits £528.87bn † £543.67bn † £551.43bn † £557.71bn † £566.13bn † £574.77bn † £582.74bn †
gov_balance £369.83bn † £398.07bn † £428.56bn † £456.00bn † £486.63bn † £514.10bn † £546.22bn †
Household income totals: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Household market income £1,651.49bn £1,713.03bn £1,764.05bn £1,812.97bn £1,862.19bn £1,918.39bn £1,985.28bn
Household net income £1,644.46bn † £1,688.65bn † £1,719.42bn † £1,750.39bn † £1,781.36bn † £1,820.67bn † £1,866.89bn †
Household net income (HBAI definition) £1,457.33bn £1,504.44bn £1,537.45bn £1,569.13bn £1,602.35bn £1,640.08bn £1,686.54bn
Population: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
People 69,224k 69,466k 69,668k 69,891k 70,128k 70,381k 70,550k
Benefit units 35,100k 35,223k 35,325k 35,438k 35,558k 35,686k 35,772k
Households 31,037k 31,145k 31,236k 31,336k 31,442k 31,555k 31,631k
Poverty rates: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone 16.0% 15.1% 15.5% 15.6% 15.7% 15.8% 15.8%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children 24.0% 21.2% 21.5% 21.5% 21.7% 21.9% 21.8%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 13.8% 13.5% 14.0% 14.1% 14.2% 14.2% 14.3%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 13.7% 13.2% 13.1% 13.4% 13.5% 13.5% 13.5%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone 21.5% 20.8% 21.3% 21.5% 21.8% 21.9% 22.2%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children 33.1% 30.7% 31.1% 31.1% 31.4% 31.7% 32.3%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 19.8% 19.6% 20.3% 20.5% 20.7% 20.9% 21.1%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 12.7% 12.4% 12.3% 12.5% 12.9% 12.9% 13.0%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone 17.2% 16.4% 16.5% 16.4% 16.3% 16.4% 16.6%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children 26.2% 23.5% 23.4% 23.1% 22.8% 23.0% 23.3%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 14.6% 14.4% 14.7% 14.7% 14.6% 14.7% 14.9%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 15.0% 14.8% 14.1% 14.1% 14.0% 14.0% 14.2%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone 21.6% 21.0% 21.2% 21.2% 21.3% 21.4% 21.8%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children 33.3% 31.2% 31.0% 30.7% 31.0% 31.0% 31.5%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 19.9% 19.8% 20.2% 20.3% 20.5% 20.5% 20.7%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 12.9% 12.4% 12.2% 11.9% 11.8% 11.9% 12.8%
People in poverty: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone 11,047k 10,485k 10,771k 10,894k 11,001k 11,087k 11,136k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children 3,579k 3,184k 3,231k 3,241k 3,284k 3,320k 3,324k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 5,844k 5,751k 6,036k 6,136k 6,188k 6,228k 6,267k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 1,625k 1,550k 1,504k 1,517k 1,530k 1,539k 1,545k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone 14,858k 14,424k 14,825k 15,015k 15,271k 15,438k 15,663k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children 4,944k 4,610k 4,671k 4,688k 4,757k 4,821k 4,919k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 8,410k 8,360k 8,748k 8,915k 9,052k 9,141k 9,257k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 1,504k 1,454k 1,405k 1,412k 1,461k 1,475k 1,487k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone 11,894k 11,401k 11,466k 11,487k 11,424k 11,524k 11,707k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children 3,917k 3,523k 3,519k 3,491k 3,451k 3,491k 3,549k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 6,200k 6,134k 6,337k 6,400k 6,386k 6,438k 6,537k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 1,776k 1,744k 1,611k 1,597k 1,587k 1,595k 1,621k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone 14,968k 14,591k 14,771k 14,823k 14,961k 15,048k 15,362k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children 4,977k 4,676k 4,659k 4,634k 4,691k 4,712k 4,793k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 8,454k 8,451k 8,719k 8,845k 8,924k 8,983k 9,106k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 1,537k 1,464k 1,393k 1,344k 1,346k 1,354k 1,463k
Inequality: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Gini coefficient, equivalised HBAI income before housing costs 0.3086 0.3059 0.3066 0.3072 0.3076 0.3082 0.3096
Mean household net income in each side's own deciles: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household £17,778 † £17,871 † £17,830 † £17,889 † £18,127 † £18,315 † £18,443 †
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household £27,960 † £28,862 † £28,623 † £28,879 † £29,157 † £29,627 † £30,135 †
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household £34,382 † £35,487 † £36,016 † £36,491 † £36,755 † £37,306 † £38,128 †
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household £38,748 † £40,687 † £41,893 † £42,409 † £43,111 † £43,924 † £44,180 †
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household £43,805 † £44,625 † £45,606 † £46,287 † £47,380 † £48,284 † £49,578 †
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household £48,199 † £49,518 † £50,739 † £51,510 † £52,185 † £53,080 † £54,241 †
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household £56,235 † £57,200 † £57,769 † £58,292 † £59,031 † £60,103 † £61,824 †
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household £69,163 † £70,582 † £71,819 † £73,070 † £74,098 † £75,624 † £77,424 †
Decile 9: mean household_net_income per household £79,493 † £81,439 † £82,842 † £84,150 † £85,534 † £87,059 † £89,936 †
Decile 10: mean household_net_income per household £117,577 † £120,291 † £121,928 † £124,157 † £126,037 † £128,332 † £131,101 †
Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance): head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp £6.47bn £6.76bn £6.67bn £6.86bn £7.06bn £7.35bn £7.55bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp £3.69bn £3.98bn £4.03bn £4.29bn £4.46bn £4.78bn £4.91bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year £-3.82bn £-3.94bn £-4.01bn £-4.09bn £-4.18bn £-4.18bn £-2.00bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child £-1.99bn £-1.75bn £-1.56bn £-1.46bn £-1.35bn £-1.24bn £-1.12bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20% £-20.39bn £-20.96bn £-21.38bn £-21.57bn £-21.87bn £-22.17bn £-22.60bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10% £11.02bn £11.42bn £11.77bn £12.07bn £12.37bn £12.75bn £13.07bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp £24.89bn £25.55bn £26.14bn £26.75bn £27.39bn £28.03bn £28.66bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp £2.96bn £3.21bn £3.26bn £3.46bn £3.65bn suppressed suppressed
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10% £-3.02bn £-3.15bn £-3.26bn £-3.30bn £-3.34bn £-3.39bn £-3.44bn
Raise the State Pension by 10% £-7.79bn £-8.02bn £-8.01bn £-8.12bn £-8.43bn £-8.54bn £-8.87bn
Standard reforms: change in each reform's target: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp: change in income_tax £6.61bn £6.91bn £6.83bn £7.03bn £7.24bn £7.47bn £7.73bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp: change in income_tax £3.69bn £3.99bn £4.04bn £4.25bn £4.47bn £4.74bn £4.93bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year: change in income_tax £-3.95bn £-4.08bn £-4.17bn £-4.24bn £-4.34bn £-4.41bn £-1.76bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child: change in child_benefit £2.33bn £2.14bn £1.95bn £1.84bn £1.73bn £1.62bn £1.50bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%: change in universal_credit £20.39bn £20.95bn £21.37bn £21.62bn £21.87bn £22.22bn £22.61bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%: change in national_insurance £11.28bn £11.74bn £12.06bn £12.37bn £12.69bn £13.03bn £13.49bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp: change in vat £24.69bn £25.35bn £25.94bn £26.54bn £27.17bn £27.81bn £28.43bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax £2.96bn £3.21bn £3.26bn £3.46bn £3.66bn suppressed suppressed
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%: change in universal_credit £3.02bn £3.15bn £3.26bn £3.32bn £3.39bn £3.44bn £3.48bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%: change in state_pension £10.68bn £11.18bn £11.31bn £11.55bn £12.00bn £12.44bn £12.94bn

MaxGhenis and others added 4 commits October 25, 2026 07:17
@MaxGhenis
Merge remote-tracking branch 'origin/main' into ni-domestic-rates-par…
617fc45 
…tition-note
@MaxGhenis @claude
Address review r1 on the NI domestic rates partition note
c7cdbfc 
- State that the reading rests on where each OBR line sits, not its size:
  the £0.494bn Table 4.1 line is nearer ONS's regional row than its
  district row, and the two lines together exceed LPS and ONS. Add the
  same clause to the finance_ni.domestic_rates comment.
- Say the 2024-25 Table A.5 council tax row (£47.417bn) is £0.273bn below
  Table 4.1's total, so its outturn may not include NI domestic rates.
- Define uncovered_receipts by what the closure test checks (rows no
  head's obr_line names) and let a note record partial measurement.
- Explain obr_table_3_1: null in the note; reword the LPS figure so it
  does not read as the head's own level.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis @claude
Address review r2 on the NI domestic rates partition note
1e7b265 
- Keep uncovered_receipts' documented meaning and drop the Other taxes
  note: a schema_version bump would break the pinned aggregate-impact
  tool copies in policyengine.py and policyengine-uk-data for a prose
  change no code reads. The two heads' notes carry the overlap.
- Hedge 'the head appears to span two Table A.5 rows'; ground the
  yoy_growth 'neither line covers the whole bill' in size.
- Drop the repeated regional sentence; define ONS and the Family
  Resources Survey.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis
Merge remote-tracking branch 'origin/main' into ni-domestic-rates-par…
0ba2117 
…tition-note
@MaxGhenis
MaxGhenis marked this pull request as ready for review October 25, 2026 15:39
@MaxGhenis

MaxGhenis commented Oct 25, 2026

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Hand-off to the UK hub

  • Head: 0ba2117605496f8f3cbfd20872efcc94accae7ae.
  • Changes: documentation only. The domestic_rates notes and a source entry in fiscal_partition.yaml, one comment in yoy_growth.yaml, and changelog.d/2662.changed.md.
  • Independent review: three rounds, through Subfleet review --tier hard.
    • r1, Opus 5.5 (no Codex lane was open): REQUEST_CHANGES, eight findings, all addressed.
    • r2, GPT-6.1 Sol: REQUEST_CHANGES, four findings, all addressed.
    • r3, GPT-6.1 Sol: APPROVE at this head. Its one LOW finding was in the PR body wording and is fixed.
    • The reviews are in ~/reviews/uk-ni-domestic-rates-partition-2662/review/review_r{1,2,3}.md.
  • CI at this head: Changelog fragments, Changes, Documentation build, Fix evidence, Lint, Release build and all four smoke-import jobs pass. Test / Python 1-5, Test / YAML and Aggregate impact are pending.
    • Aggregate impact should warn that the partition changed (its SHA-256 differs) and show no change in any number. No code compares obr_line with OBR figures.
  • Local checks:
    • pytest -n 4 on test_fiscal_partition.py, aggregate_impact/test_aggregate_impact_partition.py and test_domestic_rates_uprating.py: 67 passed.
    • ruff format --check and ruff check are clean.
  • Dependencies, holds and decisions: none. Document that Northern Ireland business rates count regional and district rates #2344, the sibling business rates note, has merged and main is merged into this branch.
  • Follow-ups owed: none from this PR. Northern Ireland domestic rates: low level and district-only OBR target policyengine-uk-data#520 already tracks the low NI domestic rates level (£0.524bn on certified 1.58.1, against £889.5m LPS) and the Table 4.1-only target.
  • Not done, deliberately: a schema_version bump to redefine uncovered_receipts. Pinned copies of the aggregate-impact tool in policyengine.py (provenance/uk_candidate.py) and in policyengine-uk-data's pull_request.yaml accept only version 1.
  • Evidence: ~/reviews/uk-ni-domestic-rates-partition-2662/.

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Fiscal partition: domestic_rates note gives only the council tax placement of NI domestic rates

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@MaxGhenis