[MaxGhenis]

What and why

gov.dwp.carers_allowance.earnings_limit ends at £204 from 6 April 2026 (SI 2026/218) and had no projection, so the model held £204 in every later year. The Carer's Allowance rate next to it is uprated by CPI, so the limit fell in real terms and against earnings in every projected year.

The limit follows a stated rule. Reg. 8(1) of the Social Security (Invalid Care Allowance) Regulations 1976 holds a fixed sum, which each year's up-rating regulations replace. From April 2025 the Government sets that sum at 16 times the hourly national living wage, rounded up to the nearest pound:

• Explanatory Memorandum to SI 2025/352, para. 5.6: reg. 4 "increases the Carer's Allowance earnings limit to equal 16 times the hourly National Living Wage rounded up to the nearest pound. This policy, announced by the Chancellor in her Budget on 30 October 2024, will apply from April 2025 and in future years". Para. 5.3 gives £151 to £196.
• Explanatory Memorandum to SI 2026/218, para. 5.3: the amount "is in line with 16 times the hourly National Living Wage rounded up to the nearest pound", £196 to £204.
• Arithmetic check: 16 × £12.21 = £195.36, rounded up to £196, and 16 × £12.71 = £203.36, rounded up to £204. Before 2025 the limit did not follow the rule: 16 × £11.44 = £183.04 against £151 in 2024-25.
• HM Treasury, "Everyday fixes to make life easier for millions of Britons" (26 Oct 2026): the Carer's Allowance taper announced for the Budget applies above the "Weekly Earnings Limit, equivalent to 16 hours of the National Living Wage".

(Autumn Budget 2024 itself says "raising the Carer's Allowance Weekly Earnings Limit to the equivalent of 16 hours at the NLW" without saying it continues; the "future years" commitment is in the 2025 Explanatory Memorandum.)

The change

The repo already projects derived amounts after their last stated value with extend_after_last_stated (the Savings Credit threshold, the pension-age Housing Benefit allowances). This uses it:

• create_earnings_limit_projection.py: for each year after the last legislated amount, the limit is ceil(hours × NLW). NLW is the national living wage in force on 30 April, the last amount of gov.hmrc.minimum_wage.non_apprentice, as esa_exempt_work_higher_earnings_limit reads it. It runs after general uprating and before fiscal-year conversion, on the main tree and its baseline copy, so a reform's national living wage or hours are read when it is reprocessed.
• earnings_limit_national_living_wage_hours.yaml: the 16, from 7 April 2025, citing the 2025 Explanatory Memorandum. It is a stated policy, not law, and the description says so.
• earnings_limit.yaml: unchanged values; a comment and a reference record how later years are projected.

Rounding. ceil(round(hours × NLW, 6)). Rounding to six places first keeps an exact amount from rounding up when the float product sits just above it: 20 × (1,020 × 0.01) is 204.00000000000003, which must give £204, not £205. (At 16 hours no wage in whole pence needs this, but a reform can change the hours.)

Each projected year is the rule alone, with no floor. A reform that lowers the national living wage or the hours lowers the limit, and a change to a single year changes only that year. The model's own national living wage never falls below its April 2026 rate, so in the baseline no projected year is below £204.

Changes made after the build don't move the limit. As with the other derived projections, Scenario.apply on a built simulation and reform-dict keys naming a single day or month edit the processed parameters, so a change to the hours made that way has no effect. The hours parameter's description says so.

Effect today. gov.hmrc.minimum_wage.non_apprentice is itself unprojected (#2537): it holds £12.71 after April 2026, so this still gives £204 in every later year, and the baseline doesn't move. #2700, stacked on this PR, projects the national living wage by May to July earnings growth. With it the limit is £212 from April 2027 (16 × £13.21), then £217, £221, £226 and £232 to April 2031.

Invariants

Stated in the module docstring of test_carers_allowance_earnings_limit_projection.py and executed:

1. Statutory precedence: each year up to the last legislated amount reads the amount earnings_limit.yaml states for it, whatever the wage.
2. The rule reproduces the legislated amounts from the legislated wages: £196 (2025) and £204 (2026).
3. Rule: a projected year is ceil(hours × NLW on 30 April), whatever the years before it were.
4. Floor: while the national living wage is at least £12.71 and the hours at least 16, no projected year is below £204. The model's own path satisfies this in every year to 2040.
5. Exact pounds (differential against fractions.Fraction): exhaustively for wages from 1p to £50 and 1 to 40 hours, in both float representations (p / 100 and uprating's p × 0.01).
6. The entitlement test reads the projected limit.
7. The baseline copy (parameters.baseline) keeps current law's limit under a reform. (While the national living wage is flat this can't tell a projected baseline from an unprojected one; it can once Project the minimum wage rates by the OBR's national living wage forecast #2700 lands.)

Tests

• test_projection_follows_any_national_living_wage_path (Hypothesis, derandomized, with explicit examples): any national living wage in 2025 and 2026, and any at or above £12.71 in 2027 to 2030. It checks that every year to 2040 keeps its legislated amount or equals ceil(16 × NLW), and that no projected year is below £204. The examples are:
  • a rising path through whole-pound wages (£13.25 → £212, £13.50 → £216);
  • a path that rises to £14 and falls back to £12.71 (the limit follows it down to £204);
  • wages below the legislated ones in 2025 and 2026 (no change there).
• test_reforms_lower_the_limit_and_change_only_their_own_years sets 12 hours in 2027-28 and 20 hours in 2028-29 only, a £12.00 national living wage in 2029-30, and £14.50 for the 25-and-over band alone in 2030-31. It checks:
  • each year follows its own hours and wage (£192 in 2029-30, below £204);
  • the rule reads the 25-and-over band;
  • later years return to current law;
  • parameters.baseline stays at current law.
• test_baseline_projection_follows_the_model_national_living_wage: invariants 1, 3 and 4 on the model's own path, whatever it is, so the test holds before and after Project the minimum wage rates by the OBR's national living wage forecast #2700.
• test_hours_change_only_projected_years: 20 hours from 2025 changes 2027 onwards only.
• test_whole_pounds_are_exact_for_every_wage_in_pence: invariant 5.
• test_entitlement_reads_the_projected_limit: a £13.50 national living wage from April 2028 gives £216; earnings of £216 a week are within it and £217 over it.
• The tests' exact-arithmetic rule works on the wage in whole pence, as rates are set. Uprating holds £14.45 as 14.450000000000001, and exact arithmetic on that float at 20 hours gives £290 where the model's £289 is right; Project the minimum wage rates by the OBR's national living wage forecast #2700's CI caught this.
• YAML carers_allowance_earnings_limit_projection.yaml: 2027-28, 2028-29 and 2030-31, earnings at the limit (within) and £1 a week over it. They pin £204 while the national living wage is flat; the stacked PR moves them.

Interaction with #2543

No file overlap. #2543 at 32f1639 merges cleanly onto this PR and onto #2700. Its CA tests pass on both merged trees: 34 Python tests and 31 YAML cases, run locally. Its properties test now takes years after the last legislated amount from the model, so a projected limit doesn't break it.

Aggregate impact

None: the Aggregate impact job on certified data finds no change in any measure, 2025-26 to 2031-32 (run), because the national living wage is flat after April 2026. With #2700 the limit rises from April 2027. Carer's Allowance spending doesn't change until 2030-31, and the change after that rests on very few survey records. #2700's body has its full impact.

Reproducer: policyengine_uk/tests/test_carers_allowance_earnings_limit_projection.py::test_entitlement_reads_the_projected_limit

axiom: n/a: projects years after the last legislated amount; reg. 8(1)'s legislated £204 (SI 2026/218) is unchanged

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

[juaristi22]

Review: Carer’s Allowance earnings-limit projection

Base repository: PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk
PR number: 2699
Reviewed head SHA: 7217486
Merge base SHA: 8ba8bd6
Scope: seven changed files and affected projection, reform and final-award paths.
Review status: PARTIAL
Review severity: COMMENT
Confirmed critical findings: 0

The independent policy and code reviews found no confirmed defects in this scope. Test completion remains the material evidence gap, so this is a partial review.

Policy and implementation

The 2025 Explanatory Memorandum, physical page 2, paragraphs 5.3 and 5.6 supports setting the limit at 16 times the hourly National Living Wage, rounded upwards to a whole pound, from April 2025 and in future years. The 2026 memorandum, physical page 2, paragraph 5.3 corroborates the increase from £196 to £204.

The existing dates and amounts remain intact. Regulation 8(1) still states a fixed £204 and applies when earnings exceed the limit; the helper projects only years after the last stated amount. The nondecreasing floor and 30 April sample are disclosed modelling conventions, rather than statutory guarantees. The Treasury’s 26 October announcement corroborates the 16-hour threshold; its prospective taper is outside this change.

Code inspection covered the adult-wage bracket, processing order, baseline copy, dated reforms, historical preservation and the path from the earnings test to the final allowance. With the current flat £12.71 wage, the projected limit remains £204. A £13.50 wage gives £216 under the stated rule. These are source and arithmetic checks, not executed benefit results.

Validation and remaining gap

• UK model tests, collection and imports: NOT RUN in this review. The new reform and final-award tests were inspected. Author-reported runs are separate evidence.
• The rounding helper was evaluated in isolation against exact Fraction arithmetic: 400,000 comparisons passed over integer hours 1–40 and penny wages 1–5,000, in both float representations. This does not execute the parameter pipeline or UK tests.
• Six primary originals and their text extracts were checked. The two memoranda’s relevant prose was read with physical page boundaries. No policy/source gap remains within this changed-behaviour scope.
• At 2026-10-27T19:54:58.806551+00:00, the exact reviewed commit has 19 observed raw checks: 10 SUCCESS, 8 IN_PROGRESS and 1 earlier FAILURE. YAML, all six Python shards and Aggregate impact remain pending; Test / Result is not yet observed. The earlier failed Fix evidence job 122424634262 is preserved alongside the separate newer successful Fix evidence job 122429405822. No failure cause or official-attempt classification was acquired.

The updated description now names the added reproducer, so the provisional missing-description finding was withdrawn. A completed hosted suite on this commit can resolve the remaining execution gap; this review does not add a local rerun requirement.

The source acquisition window closed after 172.42 seconds of its 300-second budget. The local review, including snapshot cleanup, took 774.71 seconds. No population, private-data, deployment, Axiom-encoding or performance validation is claimed.

[github-actions]

Aggregate impact on certified data: pass

Base 6030cbc0ba against head 98663588f2, both on enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5 (policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1, sha256 056e80fd8e91), fiscal years 2025-26 to 2031-32. Each year is a full microsimulation run on each side.

Checks: 0 broken by this change, 1 failing on both sides, 0 fixed. Moves flagged for review: 0 (thresholds in report_spec.yaml; a flag does not fail the job).

Workflow run and full report

Notes

• In the years a figure from fewer than 10 records is suppressed (spending.disabled_students_allowance), every total containing it, and the decile incomes, are rebuilt from their other components, so no published total includes it. Those totals are marked †. A change is withheld where the two sides leave out different figures and can't be lined up.

Moves flagged for review

None.

Spending by benefit and service

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed

Caseloads

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed

Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance)

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise additional rate by 3pp	0	0	0	0	0	suppressed	suppressed

Standard reforms: change in each reform's target

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax	0	0	0	0	0	suppressed	suppressed

Household net income by decile

No household's net income changes in any year.

No change in any year: receipts by tax head; government balance, each component counted once; model totals; household income totals; population; poverty rates; people in poverty; inequality; mean household net income in each side's own deciles.

Checks failing on both base and head (1)

• VAT excluding private school fees is never negative (sign:vat): 2025-26: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-53,889,156 in total; 2026-27: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-55,420,387 in total; 2027-28: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-56,618,038 in total

Counted-once check

Each of 91 components was raised by £1 per unit in 2026-27, and every head of its totals was read household by household: its own head must rise by exactly £1, no other tax head may move, no other benefit may rise, and the model's own total must move by what its heads moved. A head that breaks a rule is measured again twice: with every other head held at its baseline value, and with every other head held at its value after the first £1 while the component rises again. It fails where either still shows the response. 0 failed; 0 were skipped.

• widowed_parents_allowance: pension_credit responds only through other heads in fewer than 10 households (other heads that moved there: carers_allowance; gov_spending; not a failure)
• widowed_parents_allowance: pension_credit responds only through other heads in fewer than 10 households (other heads that moved there: carers_allowance; household_benefits; not a failure)

Provenance

Side	Commit	Runtime	Environment hash	Partition hash	Time
base	main 6030cbc0ba	uk 2.162.14 (files d25750c1b916), core 3.33.12, py 3.13.18 aarch64	d254d556bf69	4f86ac4248d9	1920.99s
head	#2699 merged into main 98663588f2	uk 2.162.14 (files 77a0bd2dc503), core 3.33.12, py 3.13.18 aarch64	d254d556bf69	4f86ac4248d9	1906.51s

Dataset: hf://policyengine/policyengine-uk-data-private/enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5@2526edbbb687a3b54dbb11272e5389e4b62d2ac2, sha256 056e80fd8e9151d78f432a25cde863340baee81304c6216a37fb575ce8563784 (verified on both sides), policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1.

Receipts by tax head: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Final charge on cash interest in non-cash ISAs	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Lifetime ISA withdrawal charge	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Income tax	£298.70bn	£318.31bn	£335.60bn	£350.52bn	£365.79bn	£383.53bn	£401.03bn
National Insurance (employee and self-employed)	£52.37bn	£54.71bn	£56.48bn	£58.15bn	£60.22bn	£62.11bn	£64.44bn
National Insurance (employer)	£150.59bn	£156.99bn	£161.74bn	£166.13bn	£173.24bn	£178.59bn	£185.29bn
Employer NI change borne by capital	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Employer NI change borne by consumers	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Capital gains tax	£12.61bn	£13.05bn	£13.53bn	£14.02bn	£14.52bn	£15.05bn	£15.58bn
Student loan repayments	£7.91bn	£8.21bn	£8.43bn	£8.63bn	£8.85bn	£9.10bn	£9.42bn
VAT excluding private school fees	£249.37bn	£255.28bn	£261.81bn	£267.87bn	£274.12bn	£280.56bn	£286.81bn
Change in VAT from its baseline	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
VAT on private school fees	£1.95bn	£2.00bn	£2.05bn	£2.10bn	£2.21bn	£2.21bn	£2.31bn
Change in private school VAT from its baseline	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Fuel duties	£24.53bn	£24.64bn	£26.64bn	£26.69bn	£26.42bn	£25.76bn	£26.35bn
Alcohol duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Tobacco duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Vehicle excise duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Betting and gaming duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
TV licence fee	£4.26bn	£4.41bn	£4.42bn	£4.44bn	£4.45bn	£4.47bn	£4.48bn
Council tax	£49.21bn	£51.88bn	£54.97bn	£58.29bn	£61.55bn	£64.92bn	£68.49bn
High value council tax surcharge	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.48bn	£0.49bn	£0.50bn	£0.51bn
Northern Ireland domestic rates	£0.55bn	£0.58bn	£0.60bn	£0.63bn	£0.66bn	£0.69bn	£0.72bn
Business rates	£34.68bn	£38.04bn	£38.88bn	£39.76bn	£43.07bn	£43.13bn	£44.57bn
Stamp duty land tax on the household's own purchases	£6.90bn	£7.39bn	£7.81bn	£8.21bn	£8.62bn	£9.02bn	£9.42bn
Stamp duty land tax paid by companies	£4.81bn	£5.98bn	£6.73bn	£7.46bn	£8.21bn	£8.87bn	£9.16bn
Land transaction tax (Wales)	£0.07bn	£0.08bn	£0.09bn	£0.09bn	£0.10bn	£0.10bn	£0.11bn
Land and buildings transaction tax (Scotland)	£0.31bn	£0.32bn	£0.34bn	£0.35bn	£0.37bn	£0.38bn	£0.40bn
Unspecified tax change borne by capital	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Unspecified tax change borne by consumers	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Wealth tax	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Wealth tax excluding the main residence	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Land value tax	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Carbon tax	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn

Spending by benefit and service: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Lifetime ISA bonus	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
State Pension	£121.64bn	£126.07bn	£127.08bn	£128.87bn	£132.52bn	£136.31bn	£140.08bn
Pension Credit	£6.66bn	£7.04bn	£7.32bn	£7.46bn	£7.60bn	£7.77bn	£7.94bn
Winter Fuel Payment	£1.86bn	£1.86bn	£1.80bn	£1.78bn	£1.79bn	£1.79bn	£1.80bn
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland)	£0.19bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.21bn	£0.21bn	£0.22bn	£0.22bn
Universal Credit	£75.21bn	£80.38bn	£82.93bn	£84.23bn	£85.58bn	£86.87bn	£87.97bn
Housing Benefit	£8.55bn	£8.89bn	£9.17bn	£9.31bn	£9.58bn	£9.84bn	£10.10bn
Council Tax Reduction	£2.07bn	£2.18bn	£2.32bn	£2.46bn	£2.60bn	£2.74bn	£2.89bn
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related)	£0.79bn	£0.81bn	£0.83bn	£0.85bn	£0.86bn	£0.89bn	£0.90bn
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based)	£5.20bn	£5.34bn	£5.46bn	£5.59bn	£5.72bn	£5.85bn	£5.99bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based)	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based)	£0.29bn	£0.30bn	£0.30bn	£0.31bn	£0.32bn	£0.32bn	£0.33bn
Income Support	£0.12bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Working Tax Credit	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Child Tax Credit	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Incapacity Benefit	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Personal Independence Payment	£26.94bn	£28.06bn	£29.13bn	£29.83bn	£30.54bn	£31.26bn	£31.96bn
Disability Living Allowance	£7.49bn	£7.80bn	£8.10bn	£8.29bn	£8.49bn	£8.69bn	£8.88bn
Attendance Allowance	£8.68bn	£9.04bn	£9.38bn	£9.61bn	£9.83bn	£10.07bn	£10.29bn
Carer's Allowance	£4.48bn	£4.67bn	£4.84bn	£4.96bn	£5.08bn	£5.19bn	£5.31bn
Carer Support Payment (Scotland)	£0.31bn	£0.32bn	£0.33bn	£0.34bn	£0.35bn	£0.36bn	£0.37bn
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland)	£0.00bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn
Severe Disablement Allowance	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit	£0.50bn	£0.52bn	£0.53bn	£0.54bn	£0.55bn	£0.57bn	£0.58bn
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme	£0.61bn	£0.62bn	£0.64bn	£0.65bn	£0.67bn	£0.68bn	£0.70bn
War Widow's or Widower's Pension	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Child Benefit	£16.16bn	£16.83bn	£17.43bn	£17.85bn	£18.26bn	£18.69bn	£19.10bn
Scottish Child Payment	£0.49bn	£0.52bn	£0.54bn	£0.55bn	£0.56bn	£0.57bn	£0.56bn
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual)	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Healthy Start vouchers	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn
Maternity Allowance	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Statutory Maternity Pay	£3.30bn	£3.39bn	£3.47bn	£3.55bn	£3.63bn	£3.72bn	£3.80bn
Statutory Paternity Pay	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Statutory Sick Pay	£1.12bn	£1.15bn	£1.18bn	£1.21bn	£1.24bn	£1.27bn	£1.29bn
Sure Start Maternity Grant	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn
Bereavement Support Payment	£0.67bn	£0.69bn	£0.70bn	£0.72bn	£0.73bn	£0.75bn	£0.77bn
Widowed Parent's Allowance	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Tax-Free Childcare	£0.55bn	£0.56bn	£0.57bn	£0.58bn	£0.59bn	£0.61bn	£0.59bn
Extended childcare entitlement	£2.99bn	£3.50bn	£3.60bn	£3.67bn	£3.77bn	£3.85bn	£3.94bn
Universal childcare entitlement	£2.05bn	£2.23bn	£2.28bn	£2.34bn	£2.40bn	£2.47bn	£2.52bn
Targeted childcare entitlement	£0.50bn	£0.51bn	£0.52bn	£0.53bn	£0.54bn	£0.56bn	£0.52bn
Childcare Offer for Wales	£0.26bn	£0.28bn	£0.28bn	£0.29bn	£0.30bn	£0.30bn	£0.31bn
Care to Learn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Childcare Grant	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Parents' Learning Allowance	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn
Adult Dependants' Grant	£0.06bn	£0.06bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn
Travel Grant	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
NHS spending	£203.83bn	£204.54bn	£205.13bn	£205.79bn	£206.49bn	£207.23bn	£207.73bn
State education spending	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn
Transport subsidy spending	£25.05bn	£25.13bn	£25.21bn	£25.29bn	£25.37bn	£25.46bn	£25.53bn
Cost-of-living support payment	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Energy Bills Rebate	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Basic income	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Disability basic income	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Other public spending budget change	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn

Caseloads: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Lifetime ISA bonus	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
State Pension	11,261k	11,158k	10,849k	10,746k	10,783k	10,822k	10,848k
Pension Credit	1,485k	1,483k	1,480k	1,461k	1,462k	1,464k	1,460k
Winter Fuel Payment	7,842k	7,793k	7,494k	7,407k	7,432k	7,459k	7,477k
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland)	803k	803k	803k	800k	803k	806k	808k
Universal Credit	6,334k	6,341k	6,366k	6,347k	6,345k	6,333k	6,298k
Housing Benefit	1,249k	1,247k	1,250k	1,234k	1,238k	1,240k	1,239k
Council Tax Reduction	3,175k	3,198k	3,209k	3,229k	3,244k	3,257k	3,264k
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related)	71k	71k	71k	71k	71k	72k	72k
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based)	719k	721k	723k	726k	728k	731k	732k
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based)	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based)	67k	67k	67k	68k	68k	68k	68k
Income Support	25k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Working Tax Credit	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Child Tax Credit	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Incapacity Benefit	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Personal Independence Payment	3,566k	3,579k	3,589k	3,601k	3,613k	3,626k	3,635k
Disability Living Allowance	1,291k	1,295k	1,299k	1,303k	1,308k	1,312k	1,316k
Attendance Allowance	1,694k	1,700k	1,705k	1,711k	1,716k	1,723k	1,727k
Carer's Allowance	1,034k	1,038k	1,041k	1,044k	1,048k	1,051k	1,053k
Carer Support Payment (Scotland)	71k	71k	72k	72k	72k	72k	73k
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland)	0k	71k	72k	72k	72k	72k	73k
Severe Disablement Allowance	4k	4k	4k	4k	4k	4k	4k
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit	137k	137k	138k	138k	139k	139k	140k
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme	93k	93k	94k	94k	94k	95k	95k
War Widow's or Widower's Pension	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Child Benefit	8,102k	8,128k	8,142k	8,165k	8,191k	8,216k	8,232k
Scottish Child Payment	350k	352k	353k	357k	354k	355k	342k
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual)	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Healthy Start vouchers	199k	200k	201k	201k	202k	203k	203k
Maternity Allowance	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Statutory Maternity Pay	332k	334k	335k	336k	337k	338k	339k
Statutory Paternity Pay	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Statutory Sick Pay	181k	182k	182k	183k	183k	184k	185k
Sure Start Maternity Grant	26k	26k	26k	26k	26k	27k	27k
Bereavement Support Payment	98k	98k	98k	99k	99k	99k	100k
Widowed Parent's Allowance	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Tax-Free Childcare	1,014k	1,024k	1,024k	1,027k	1,027k	1,031k	1,013k
Extended childcare entitlement	796k	801k	806k	809k	815k	819k	820k
Universal childcare entitlement	1,071k	1,074k	1,077k	1,080k	1,086k	1,096k	1,097k
Targeted childcare entitlement	165k	156k	154k	155k	155k	156k	144k
Childcare Offer for Wales	39k	39k	39k	39k	39k	39k	39k
Care to Learn	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Childcare Grant	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Parents' Learning Allowance	98k	98k	99k	99k	99k	100k	100k
Adult Dependants' Grant	18k	18k	12k	12k	12k	13k	13k
Travel Grant	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Cost-of-living support payment	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Energy Bills Rebate	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Basic income	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Disability basic income	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k

Government balance, each component counted once: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Government receipts, each component once	£898.82bn	£941.86bn	£980.11bn	£1,013.84bn	£1,052.89bn	£1,089.01bn	£1,129.10bn
Government spending	£528.96bn †	£543.83bn †	£551.68bn †	£558.06bn †	£566.57bn †	£575.31bn †	£583.37bn †
Government balance, each receipt once	£369.86bn †	£398.03bn †	£428.43bn †	£455.78bn †	£486.32bn †	£513.70bn †	£545.72bn †
Benefits in household_benefits but not in gov_spending	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn

Model totals: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
gov_tax	£898.82bn	£941.86bn	£980.11bn	£1,013.84bn	£1,052.89bn	£1,089.01bn	£1,129.10bn
household_tax	£496.91bn	£527.60bn	£554.51bn	£577.74bn	£603.32bn	£627.65bn	£654.69bn
pre_budget_change_household_tax	£489.00bn	£519.39bn	£546.08bn	£568.63bn	£593.98bn	£618.05bn	£644.75bn
gov_spending	£528.96bn †	£543.83bn †	£551.68bn †	£558.06bn †	£566.57bn †	£575.31bn †	£583.37bn †
household_benefits	£528.96bn †	£543.83bn †	£551.68bn †	£558.06bn †	£566.57bn †	£575.31bn †	£583.37bn †
gov_balance	£369.86bn †	£398.03bn †	£428.43bn †	£455.78bn †	£486.32bn †	£513.70bn †	£545.72bn †

Household income totals: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Household market income	£1,651.49bn	£1,713.03bn	£1,764.05bn	£1,812.97bn	£1,862.19bn	£1,918.39bn	£1,985.28bn
Household net income	£1,644.43bn †	£1,688.69bn †	£1,719.55bn †	£1,750.61bn †	£1,781.67bn †	£1,821.07bn †	£1,867.39bn †
Household net income (HBAI definition)	£1,457.30bn	£1,504.48bn	£1,537.58bn	£1,569.36bn	£1,602.66bn	£1,640.48bn	£1,687.04bn

Population: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
People	69,224k	69,466k	69,668k	69,891k	70,128k	70,381k	70,550k
Benefit units	35,100k	35,223k	35,325k	35,438k	35,558k	35,686k	35,772k
Households	31,037k	31,145k	31,236k	31,336k	31,442k	31,555k	31,631k

Poverty rates: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone	16.0%	15.1%	15.4%	15.5%	15.6%	15.7%	15.7%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children	24.0%	21.1%	21.4%	21.3%	21.5%	21.8%	21.8%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	13.8%	13.5%	13.9%	14.1%	14.1%	14.2%	14.2%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	13.7%	13.2%	13.1%	13.4%	13.5%	13.5%	13.5%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone	21.4%	20.8%	21.3%	21.5%	21.7%	21.9%	22.2%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children	33.0%	30.7%	31.1%	31.1%	31.4%	31.7%	32.3%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	19.8%	19.6%	20.2%	20.5%	20.7%	20.8%	21.1%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	12.7%	12.4%	12.3%	12.5%	12.8%	12.9%	13.0%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone	17.2%	16.4%	16.5%	16.4%	16.2%	16.3%	16.5%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children	26.2%	23.5%	23.4%	23.1%	22.7%	22.8%	23.1%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	14.6%	14.4%	14.7%	14.7%	14.6%	14.7%	14.8%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	15.0%	14.8%	14.1%	14.1%	14.0%	14.0%	14.2%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone	21.6%	21.0%	21.1%	21.2%	21.3%	21.4%	21.8%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children	33.3%	31.2%	30.8%	30.7%	31.0%	31.0%	31.5%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	19.9%	19.8%	20.1%	20.3%	20.4%	20.5%	20.7%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	12.9%	12.5%	12.1%	11.9%	11.8%	11.9%	12.8%

People in poverty: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone	11,049k	10,466k	10,736k	10,860k	10,960k	11,054k	11,081k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children	3,580k	3,171k	3,211k	3,220k	3,261k	3,305k	3,317k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	5,845k	5,746k	6,022k	6,123k	6,169k	6,209k	6,219k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	1,625k	1,550k	1,504k	1,517k	1,530k	1,539k	1,545k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone	14,847k	14,422k	14,808k	14,994k	15,242k	15,402k	15,638k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children	4,937k	4,609k	4,671k	4,685k	4,757k	4,814k	4,912k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	8,406k	8,359k	8,732k	8,898k	9,024k	9,114k	9,240k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	1,504k	1,454k	1,404k	1,411k	1,460k	1,475k	1,486k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone	11,896k	11,403k	11,468k	11,487k	11,391k	11,468k	11,652k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children	3,918k	3,523k	3,519k	3,491k	3,435k	3,458k	3,516k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	6,202k	6,136k	6,338k	6,400k	6,368k	6,415k	6,515k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	1,776k	1,744k	1,611k	1,597k	1,588k	1,595k	1,621k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone	14,957k	14,597k	14,698k	14,825k	14,951k	15,042k	15,351k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children	4,976k	4,677k	4,630k	4,634k	4,690k	4,712k	4,794k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	8,443k	8,455k	8,680k	8,847k	8,916k	8,977k	9,092k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	1,537k	1,465k	1,388k	1,344k	1,346k	1,354k	1,464k

Inequality: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Gini coefficient, equivalised HBAI income before housing costs	0.3085	0.3059	0.3065	0.3071	0.3075	0.3081	0.3094

Mean household net income in each side's own deciles: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household	£17,781 †	£17,906 †	£17,832 †	£17,905 †	£18,142 †	£18,339 †	£18,482 †
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household	£27,963 †	£28,917 †	£28,654 †	£28,906 †	£29,096 †	£29,646 †	£30,235 †
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household	£34,381 †	£35,463 †	£36,065 †	£36,509 †	£36,851 †	£37,338 †	£38,043 †
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household	£38,785 †	£40,713 †	£41,873 †	£42,413 †	£43,144 †	£43,906 †	£44,167 †
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household	£43,788 †	£44,626 †	£45,606 †	£46,288 †	£47,327 †	£48,285 †	£49,710 †
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household	£48,210 †	£49,525 †	£50,736 †	£51,914 †	£52,203 †	£53,174 †	£54,203 †
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household	£56,219 †	£57,224 †	£57,764 †	£58,010 †	£59,040 †	£60,061 †	£61,765 †
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household	£69,150 †	£70,533 †	£71,800 †	£73,075 †	£74,092 †	£75,540 †	£77,427 †
Decile 9: mean household_net_income per household	£79,490 †	£81,421 †	£82,828 †	£84,135 †	£85,539 †	£87,053 †	£89,944 †
Decile 10: mean household_net_income per household	£117,581 †	£120,296 †	£121,933 †	£124,163 †	£126,045 †	£128,342 †	£131,110 †

Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance): head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp	£6.47bn	£6.76bn	£6.67bn	£6.86bn	£7.06bn	£7.35bn	£7.55bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp	£3.69bn	£3.98bn	£4.03bn	£4.29bn	£4.46bn	£4.78bn	£4.91bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year	£-3.82bn	£-3.94bn	£-4.01bn	£-4.09bn	£-4.18bn	£-4.18bn	£-2.00bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child	£-1.99bn	£-1.75bn	£-1.56bn	£-1.46bn	£-1.35bn	£-1.23bn	£-1.12bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%	£-20.39bn	£-20.96bn	£-21.38bn	£-21.61bn	£-21.87bn	£-22.17bn	£-22.60bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%	£11.02bn	£11.42bn	£11.77bn	£12.07bn	£12.37bn	£12.75bn	£13.07bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp	£24.89bn	£25.55bn	£26.14bn	£26.75bn	£27.39bn	£28.03bn	£28.66bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp	£2.96bn	£3.21bn	£3.26bn	£3.46bn	£3.65bn	suppressed	suppressed
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%	£-3.05bn	£-3.18bn	£-3.30bn	£-3.34bn	£-3.38bn	£-3.42bn	£-3.48bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%	£-7.79bn	£-8.02bn	£-8.01bn	£-8.12bn	£-8.43bn	£-8.54bn	£-8.87bn

Standard reforms: change in each reform's target: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp: change in income_tax	£6.61bn	£6.91bn	£6.83bn	£7.03bn	£7.24bn	£7.47bn	£7.73bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp: change in income_tax	£3.69bn	£3.99bn	£4.04bn	£4.25bn	£4.47bn	£4.74bn	£4.93bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year: change in income_tax	£-3.95bn	£-4.08bn	£-4.17bn	£-4.24bn	£-4.34bn	£-4.41bn	£-1.76bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child: change in child_benefit	£2.33bn	£2.14bn	£1.95bn	£1.84bn	£1.73bn	£1.62bn	£1.50bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%: change in universal_credit	£20.39bn	£20.95bn	£21.37bn	£21.62bn	£21.87bn	£22.22bn	£22.61bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%: change in national_insurance	£11.28bn	£11.74bn	£12.06bn	£12.37bn	£12.69bn	£13.03bn	£13.49bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp: change in vat	£24.69bn	£25.35bn	£25.94bn	£26.54bn	£27.17bn	£27.81bn	£28.43bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax	£2.96bn	£3.21bn	£3.26bn	£3.46bn	£3.66bn	suppressed	suppressed
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%: change in universal_credit	£3.05bn	£3.18bn	£3.29bn	£3.36bn	£3.43bn	£3.48bn	£3.52bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%: change in state_pension	£10.68bn	£11.18bn	£11.31bn	£11.55bn	£12.00bn	£12.44bn	£12.94bn

[juaristi22]

Review status: COMPLETE
Review severity: APPROVE
Confirmed critical findings: 0

Incremental follow-up at 6a2f6848a5c70af5cf20075a711fe998c2bc1411, covering the five changed files since my review of 7217486087de8252a63133723f0d00daf57c61a6 and the prior execution gap.

The independent code and policy reviews found no blocking issue. The helper now applies each year’s hours × NLW rule directly, so a lower wage or hours reform can lower that projected year without carrying a previous-year floor forward. The new tests cover bounded reforms, recovery to the baseline, the last adult wage band, statutory-year precedence and baseline isolation. The processed Scenario.apply and day/month override limitations are documented consistently with the existing routing.

The 2025 uprating memorandum, physical page 2, §5.6 supports the future-years 16 × NLW policy, rounded upwards to a whole pound; the 2026 memorandum, physical page 2, §5.3 corroborates £196 → £204. Stated amounts remain distinct from the model’s future projection. Six cached primary originals and their text extracts were revalidated; no new source acquisition was needed.

The earlier execution gap is resolved by this head’s associated PR-source CI: YAML, all six Python shards and Test / Result passed, with the Result coverage audit and the later Fix evidence check also passing. Raw metadata retains 19 successful checks and one earlier cancelled Fix evidence check beside its later success; I am not claiming every historical row succeeded or inferring an attempt/cancellation cause. Local UK tests remain NOT RUN. This evidence is for the head-associated PR source workflow; the generated merge commit was not acquired, and it does not certify standalone-head, wheel, private population or performance results. #2700’s different head and CI are separate.

S1 — optional wording precision: in create_earnings_limit_projection.py, lines 14–15, the sentence saying the projected limit stays at least £204 while NLW remains at least its April 2026 rate also needs “and hours remain at least 16”, or a baseline qualifier. The same paragraph now discusses lower-hours reforms: 12 × £12.71 rounds up to £153. The test module’s invariant 4 already includes both conditions. This is a documentation nit; no wrong modeled output was demonstrated.

[MaxGhenis]

Thanks. I've taken S1 in 3c19621: the sentence now reads "While the national living wage stays at or above its April 2026 rate and the hours at or above 16, no projected year is below £204."

The same commit has one test-only fix that #2700's CI caught. The tests' exact-arithmetic _rule now works on the wage rounded to whole pence. Uprating holds £14.45 as 14.450000000000001, and exact arithmetic on that float at 20 hours gave £290; the model's £289 is right. The model code is unchanged.