[MaxGhenis]

Fixes #1933

What and why

PolicyEngine's pension-age Council Tax Reduction for England, Scotland and Wales left out two parts of the law. At main 2da212abc, the model gave a 72-year-old an applicable amount of £13,312 a year (256.00 × 52) whether or not a ten-year-old lived with them, and counted capital over £10,000 as no income. Earlier PRs on this issue added the post-April-2021 personal allowances, the severe disability premium and the Child Benefit exclusion. We now add child amounts, family premiums and tariff income. We still leave out the enhanced disability and disabled child premiums for a pensioner's child (see Not modelled).

Child or young person amounts and the family premium. Councils add a weekly amount for every child or young person in a pensioner applicant's family. The Welsh Ministers keep a family premium; the Secretary of State and the Scottish Ministers ended theirs in 2016:

Scheme	Provision	2026-27 child amount	Family premium
England	SI 2012/2885 Sch 1 para 6(1)(b)-(c), Sch 2 paras 2-3	£87.88	nil for reduction weeks beginning after 1 May 2016 (SI 2015/2041 reg 2(4)(b))
Wales	WSI 2013/3029 Sch 1 para 1(1)(b)-(c), Sch 2 paras 2-3	£87.88	£20.22
Scotland	SSI 2012/319 reg 20(b), Sch 1 para 3	£109.85	removed from 1 May 2016 (SSI 2016/81 reg 18)

For the 2018-19 to 2024-25 schemes, the Secretary of State limited England's child amounts to two children or young persons, or more where the applicant's Child Tax Credit award included the individual element for more (SI 2017/1305 reg 7, inserting para 6(1A)-(1C); removed for 2025-26 by SI 2025/39 reg 5(2)). Councils apply the exception where the applicant has an award of Child Tax Credit "whether or not any amount is payable" (para 6(1B)(a)). In council_tax_reduction_pensioner_child_amounts, we count an award when final child_tax_credit exceeds zero, whether the model calculates it or the user enters it. While HMRC pays tax credit awards (gov.dwp.tax_credits.active), we also count would_claim_CTC with is_CTC_eligible to retain nil-rate awards, as has_tax_credit_award does. HMRC paid no ongoing tax credit awards after 5 April 2025, and the Secretary of State removed England's limit for the 2025-26 schemes, so that condition changes no current-law result. It changes a result only under a reform that closes tax credits before 2025-26 or restores England's limit after it. We add the family premium through council_tax_reduction_pensioner_family_premium and add both amounts for pensioners. When a household head applies alone, we assume their family includes no children because the model cannot identify those relationships.

So the 72-year-old with a ten-year-old now has an applicable amount of £17,881.76 in England (13,312 + 87.88 × 52), £19,024.20 in Scotland (13,312 + 109.85 × 52) and £18,933.20 in Wales (13,312 + 87.88 × 52 + 20.22 × 52). In 2024-25, an English 72-year-old with three children born before April 2017 and an entered Child Tax Credit award of £9,800.95 gets three child amounts, £12,985.44 (3 × 83.24 × 52); without an award they get two, £8,656.96. Under a reform that ends tax credits for 2024-25, a family that reports Child Tax Credit has no award and also gets two; where the user enters the award HMRC made, we still count it, as councils do, and the family gets three.

Tariff income. Councils treat a pensioner's capital as a weekly income of £1 for each £500, or part of £500, over £10,000. The Secretary of State and the Welsh Ministers count the excess "not exceeding £16,000" (SI 2012/2885 Sch 1 para 37; WSI 2013/3029 Sch 1 para 31). The Scottish Ministers set no ceiling in SSI 2012/319 reg 27(2). All three bar a reduction where capital exceeds £16,000 (SI 2012/2885 reg 11(2); WSI 2013/3029 reg 30; SSI 2012/319 reg 40). Councils apply the £16,000 limit to assessable capital after statutory disregards (SI 2012/2885 reg 11(3); WSI 2013/3029 reg 30(2); SSI 2012/319 reg 41), and disregard all of an applicant's capital where the applicant or their partner receives guarantee credit (England Sch 1 para 13, Wales Sch 1 para 7, Scotland reg 24). In the new council_tax_reduction_pensioner_tariff_income we apply the tariff to council_tax_reduction_assessable_capital, the capital the model already represents (this PR does not widen it; #1936 tracks that). We add it to general-rule income after the income floor, so the tax and pension deductions cannot reduce it. Councils count no tariff income on £10,000 of capital, £52 a year on £10,001 and £624 on £16,000. At £20,000 of capital, a Scottish pensioner off Pension Credit has £1,040 of tariff income (20 × £1 × 52) and an English or Welsh one £624, and none of them gets a reduction.

Pension Credit. Councils keep the guarantee credit route: they disregard the whole of the applicant's capital and income (England Sch 1 para 13, Wales Sch 1 para 7, Scotland reg 24), so we add no tariff income. On a savings-credit-only award they use the Secretary of State's assessment of income and capital (England Sch 1 para 14, Wales Sch 1 para 8, Scotland reg 25). The Secretary of State already counts Pension Credit's deemed income from capital in that assessment (pension_credit_income sums the sources in gov.dwp.pension_credit.guarantee_credit.income, which lists pension_credit_deemed_income), so we add no tariff income on top. A savings-credit-only pensioner with £16,000, in council_tax_reduction_pension_credit.yaml, keeps applicable income of £14,247.02.

Reuse of Housing Benefit parameters

• Tariff income. We reuse the pension-age Housing Benefit tariff parameters (gov.dwp.housing_benefit.means_test.capital.pension_age.tariff_income: £1 for each £500 over £10,000, SI 2006/214 reg 29(2)). The Secretary of State, the Welsh Ministers and the Scottish Ministers set the same step, amount and threshold, so this PR adds no tariff parameter. For the £16,000 ceiling in England and Wales we read each scheme's existing capital limit.

• Child amounts. The model's Housing Benefit has no child allowance parameter to reuse: housing_benefit_applicable_amount adds no child amounts at all. We put the new parameters under each scheme. England's amounts equal the pension-age Housing Benefit amounts (SI 2006/214 Sch 3 para 2) in every year; Wales and Scotland differ:

  Year	HB (SI 2006/214 Sch 3 para 2)	England	Wales	Scotland
  2013-14	65.62	65.62	65.62	65.62
  2014-15	66.33	66.33	66.33	66.33
  2015-16 to 2016-17	66.90	66.90	66.90	66.90
  2017-18 to 2019-20	66.90	66.90	66.90	83.63
  2020-21	68.27	68.27	66.90	85.34
  2021-22	68.60	68.60	66.90	85.75
  2022-23	70.80	70.80	70.80	88.50
  2023-24	77.78	77.78	77.78	97.23
  2024-25	83.24	83.24	83.24	104.05
  2025-26	84.66	84.66	84.66	105.85
  2026-27	87.88	87.88	87.88	109.85

  The Welsh Ministers did not raise the child amount or the family premium for 2020-21 or 2021-22: in WSI 2020/16 reg 8 and WSI 2021/34 reg 5 they amended only Sch 2 para 1 and Part 4. For each value we cite the version of the schedule in force on 30 April, or the amending regulations where legislation.gov.uk's revised text lags them (WSI 2013/112 reg 5(b) for Wales in 2013-14; SSI 2025/24 for Scotland in 2025-26).

• Family premium. Housing Benefit's family premium parameter holds the protected premium for legacy awards, which housing_benefit_family_premium gates on a protection category. Welsh councils add the premium for every pensioner family with a child or young person, and the Secretary of State and the Scottish Ministers ended theirs in 2016, so each scheme has its own parameter.

Which years

The change reaches model years 2015 onward. Each new parameter starts on 1 April 2013, the first Council Tax Reduction scheme year, but the model annualises parameters only from 2015: _fiscal_year_conversion_years in policyengine_uk/utils/parameters.py keeps the years from 2015 (lines 108 and 126), and convert_to_fiscal_year_parameters gives each ordinary parameter its value on 30 April of the year (line 171). The Housing Benefit personal allowance that the CTR applicable amount reads starts on 1 April 2015, so the model has no applicable amount before then, as on main. A run of the parameter tree on this branch gives:

Model year	2015	2016	2017	2018-2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027
England child amount	66.90	66.90	66.90	66.90	68.27	68.60	70.80	77.78	83.24	84.66	87.88	90.96
England family premium	17.45	17.45	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
England child limit	none	none	none	2	2	2	2	2	2	none	none	none
Wales child amount	66.90	66.90	66.90	66.90	66.90	66.90	70.80	77.78	83.24	84.66	87.88	90.96
Wales family premium	17.45	17.45	17.45	17.45	17.45	17.45	17.85	18.53	19.15	19.48	20.22	20.93
Scotland child amount	66.90	66.90	83.63	83.63	85.34	85.75	88.50	97.23	104.05	105.85	109.85	113.69
Scotland family premium	17.45	17.45	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Two dates limit the change. The Secretary of State made England's family premium nil, and the Scottish Ministers removed Scotland's, from 1 May 2016, after the 30 April reading, so we keep both premiums for the whole of model year 2016 and drop them from 2017. England's two-child limit covers model years 2018 to 2024. After 2026-27 we uprate the child amounts and the Welsh family premium by September CPI (gov.benefit_uprating_cpi), as we uprate the Housing Benefit family premium. We count tariff income in every model year from 2015; the Housing Benefit tariff threshold reads £10,000 from 2 November 2009.

Not modelled

• Transitional protection. We do not model the English and Scottish family premium that councils keep for families with a child who had a reduction on 30 April 2016 (SI 2015/2041 reg 3; SSI 2016/81 reg 2 and SSI 2012/319 reg 20(e), £19.48), or England's protection for families with more than two children on 31 March 2018 (SI 2017/1305 reg 17). No input identifies these families.
• The enhanced disability premium and the disabled child premium for a pensioner's child (England SI 2012/2885 Sch 2 paras 7 and 8; Wales WSI 2013/3029 Sch 2 paras 7 and 8; Scotland SSI 2012/319 Sch 1 paras 8 and 9; £33.99 and £84.46 a week in 2026-27). We currently include the severe disability and carer premiums for pensioners. We give a 72-year-old in England whose ten-year-old gets the highest rate of the DLA care component an applicable amount of £17,881.76, where councils add 118.45 × 52 = £6,159.40 under paras 7 and 8, for £24,041.16. We give £18,933.20 in Wales against £25,092.60, and £19,024.20 in Scotland against £25,183.60. Pension-age Council Tax Reduction omits the disabled child and enhanced disability premiums #2824 tracks them.
• Child amounts, the family premium and tariff income for working-age families in Scotland and Wales (Give Scotland and Wales working-age CTR their own rules #1966 covers them).
• Applicant and partner capital. We use household savings in their place, and where the household head applies alone we cannot establish whether a child belongs to the head's family.

Existing tests changed

Each change follows from the law above. Only the Child Benefit property test changes an input, its State Pension range.

• council_tax_reduction_pension_credit.yaml, "Capital of exactly 16,000 is within the limit for a pensioner without Pension Credit": the award moves from £2,000 to £1,954.80. Under Sch 1 para 37 the pensioner has £624 of tariff income: 13,000 − 86 tax + 624 = 13,538, and 2,000 − 0.2 × (13,538 − 13,312) = 1,954.80. The old comment named this as the Pensioner council tax reduction: applicable amount (post-April-2021 allowance, children, severe disability premium) and income (Child Benefit, tariff income) #1933 gap.
• council_tax_reduction_pensioner_child_benefit.yaml, "England pensioner Child Benefit is excluded before the CTR taper": the applicable amount moves from £13,312 to £17,881.76 (the child's 87.88 × 52, Sch 2 para 2), so income of £15,314 no longer exceeds it and the award moves from £2,599.60 to the whole £3,000. "Not claiming Child Benefit preserves the pensioner general-rule income" moves the same way, from £2,599.60 to £3,000.
• council_tax_reduction_young_person.yaml, Case 5: Scotland's pension-age applicable amount for a lone parent with a 19-year-old young person moves from £13,312 to £19,024.20 (SSI 2012/319 reg 20(b) and Sch 1 para 3, 109.85 × 52).
• test_council_tax_reduction_child_benefit_properties.py: the generated State Pension range moves from £15,000-£19,000 to £30,000-£34,000. The test checks the 20% taper on an award between the floor and the cap, which needs income above an applicable amount that now includes up to two children's amounts (£24,736.40 for two children in Scotland). Its assertions stay the same.
• test_council_tax_reduction_pension_credit_properties.py: invariant 4 recomputes general-rules income from its components rather than reading the variable. The recomputation now adds the pensioner tariff income, written out from the law: 52 × ceil((capital − 10,000) / 500) where positive, capping capital at £16,000 in England and Wales and leaving it uncapped in Scotland. Families off Pension Credit with savings over £10,000 still match. Its assertions stay the same.

Overlap with open PRs and issues

We ran git merge-tree --write-tree --name-only of each head against this branch (06e51a8ab) and against main (2da212abc) to find the conflicts this PR adds:

Head	Conflicts with main	Added by this PR
#1995 1b8f2dede	6 files	council_tax_reduction_pension_credit.yaml
#2017 3efa8bd60, #2077 cf0475ddb	the same 7 non-dependant and claimant-family files	none
#2002 6df59cdb4	22 files	none
#1966 779f5dcfd	3 files with git 2.43 (CHANGELOG.md, tests/test_means_test_income_properties.py, pyproject.toml); the two commits have more than one merge base	none
#2301 cf381c188, #2302 98a473909, #2688 798491cb7	1 file each	none
#1969 3a3241cf6, #2007 97f792542, #2756 c34662736, #2776 1d4a3e475, #2808 43a545dcb	none	none
branch fix-2120-uc-carer-awards 260f6a77e, which has no PR	none	none

#1995 (legacy capital-derived income) and this PR both move the £16,000 capital case in council_tax_reduction_pension_credit.yaml to £1,954.80. #1995 also adds council_tax_reduction_tariff_income (the pensioner tariff plus the Scottish and Welsh working-age tariffs) on the line of council_tax_reduction_applicable_income where this PR adds council_tax_reduction_pensioner_tariff_income, and widens council_tax_reduction_assessable_capital from savings to savings plus land and property other than the home. To merge it after this PR, keep one tariff addition after the income floor, with this branch's uncapped Scottish pensioner tariff and applicant-family Pension Credit gate, and let #1995's wider assessable capital feed that calculation. Its working-age tariff stays its own. #2002 builds on #1995, so #1995 has to merge first.

Issue #2090 (CTR income deducts the family's whole income tax) has no PR. A fix would change the tax we deduct from general-rule income before the floor. Keep the tariff as a separate addition after the deductions, and change the reference income in test_council_tax_reduction_pension_credit_properties.py with it (MAIN_DEDUCTIONS at line 291 and the recomputation at lines 374-396).

#1966 adds working-age child amounts and tariff income in separate working-age variables, so the pensioner variables here stay apart from them.

Invariants

Each invariant holds on a fixed route and status: the family stays on the same Council Tax Reduction scheme (pensioner or working-age) and, for the first, off Pension Credit.

1. For a pensioner off Pension Credit, tariff income is 52 × £1 for each £500, or part of £500, of capital above £10,000 (up to £16,000 in England and Wales), and nil for working-age families and on the Pension Credit routes. It never falls as capital rises, capital changes nothing else in the applicable income, and the award never rises with capital.
2. For a family whose scheme stays the same, adding a dependent child never lowers the applicable amount. For a pensioner, councils add 52 times the scheme's weekly rate for each extra child they count. In England from 2018-19 to 2024-25, they count up to two children, or more where a Child Tax Credit award includes individual elements for more. In Wales, councils also add the family premium with the first child.
3. A pensioner with no child and capital up to £10,000, and every working-age family, gets no child amount, family premium or tariff income, so their applicable amount, applicable income and award match origin/main.

Off those routes, capital and a child can both move these amounts. A savings-credit-only pensioner aged 90 with a State Pension of £13,500 has no tariff income at £10,000 or £16,000 of capital, but the Secretary of State counts Pension Credit's deemed income in the assessment, so their Pension Credit income rises from £13,314 to £13,938 and their applicable income from £13,872.62 to £14,247.02. A couple aged 72 and 50 with a State Pension of £10,000 who claim Universal Credit get none of it until a ten-year-old joins them. With the child, the couple gets £2,226.20 of Universal Credit and moves to the working-age scheme, and their applicable amount falls from £19,934.20 to £7,807.80.

Test plan

• YAML tests whose expected values come from the legislation: council_tax_reduction_pensioner_child_amounts.yaml (23 cases) and council_tax_reduction_pensioner_tariff_income.yaml (17 cases), with the arithmetic worked in comments.
• make format equivalent on the changed files (see below).
• Changelog fragment changelog.d/1933.fixed.md.

Results

Every run used small hand-built situations; no survey data. Since 36f1dd17e, this branch changes one formula, the tax-credit closure condition in council_tax_reduction_pensioner_child_amounts, and adds child Cases 21, 22 and 23. Its other changes touch documentation, comments, docstrings, parameter descriptions and the changelog. c5b07aec7 has this head's code. From it to this head, 06e51a8ab, the Python syntax trees match once we strip docstrings and documentation, and the parsed YAML matches apart from Case 23 and four parameter descriptions. Unless a bullet names a commit, the run used e8831fb6b.

• council_tax_reduction_pensioner_child_amounts.yaml: 23 passed at 06e51a8ab. At c5b07aec7, before Case 23, 22 passed.
• council_tax_reduction_pensioner_tariff_income.yaml: 17 passed at 06e51a8ab.
• council_tax_reduction_pensioner_child_benefit.yaml: 8 passed.
• policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/gov/local_authorities/council_tax_reduction/, all 24 files in one run: 371 passed, and no case raised a CycleError.
• The 26 other YAML files that read Council Tax Reduction outputs (entitledto_scenarios.yaml, ctc_child_element_eligibility.yaml, the Housing Benefit, legacy award reader, Pension Credit and winter fuel files among them): 293 passed at c91e960cf. The closure condition changes a result only where gov.dwp.tax_credits.active reads false while England's limit runs. Outside the child amounts file, only claims_universal_credit.yaml sets that parameter, to true, for 2026.
• test_council_tax_reduction_pensioner_children_tariff_properties.py: 7 passed (the three Hypothesis properties, the Northern Ireland check and the frozen origin/main differential for 2019, 2024 and 2026). Its generated families report no Child Tax Credit, so the closure condition never applies to them.
• test_council_tax_reduction_pension_credit_properties.py: 9 passed at e8831fb6b, including the two route tests whose reference income adds the tariff (test_awards_follow_the_pension_credit_routes, test_savings_credit_only_awards_use_the_pension_credit_assessment).
• test_council_tax_reduction_child_benefit_properties.py, with its higher State Pension range: 3 passed.
• test_claims_all_entitled_benefits.py, which runs its tax credit families in 2024, while England's limit runs: 19 passed, 1 skipped at e8831fb6b. test_survey_takeup_follows_reports_in_microdata carries the microsimulation mark, and with no survey dataset configured the suite skips it.
• test_parameter_descriptions.py: 24 passed at 06e51a8ab.
• test_savings_credit_only_receipt_properties.py: 6 passed (1,901 seconds) at f5c75cbfc.
• The other property files that compute Council Tax Reduction, at e8831fb6b: test_council_tax_reduction_claimant_family_scheme_properties.py 3 passed, test_legacy_award_readers_properties.py 18 passed, test_council_tax_reduction_carer_income_properties.py 4 passed, test_council_tax_reduction_applicant_properties.py 2 passed and test_council_tax_reduction_prescribed_benefits_properties.py 4 passed.
• Closure condition at c5b07aec7: we ran an English 72-year-old with three children who reports Child Tax Credit in each model year from 2015 to 2030, and in 12 runs under reforms. The reforms close tax credits from 2018-19, for 2024-25, or from a date before or after the 30 April reading; extend England's limit past 2025-26 with tax credits closed or open; or close tax credits for 2024-25 and enter a final award, or a claim and eligibility without a report. In all 28 runs, the claim-and-eligibility route that the condition counts equals has_tax_credit_award. child_limit reads 2 for model years 2018 to 2024, and infinity from 2014 to 2017 and from 2025 on.
• For model years 2011 to 2014, council_tax_reduction raises ParameterNotFoundError on gov.dwp.pension_credit.mixed_age_couples in all three nations, on main and on this branch alike, so the new variable's failed read of child_limit before model year 2014 adds no failure.
• We ran 2026 households in Maidstone, Cardiff and Glasgow at c5b07aec7 and at 2da212abc. For private renters who claim Housing Benefit, with and without a ten-year-old, housing_benefit and the amounts it reads match. For a 72-year-old homeowner, only the Council Tax Reduction outputs move: with a ten-year-old, the applicable amount rises from 13,312.00 to 17,881.76 in England, 18,933.20 in Wales and 19,024.20 in Scotland, and with £24,000 of pensions the award rises from 319.60 to 1,233.55 in England, from 319.60 to 1,443.84 in Wales and from 311.67 to 1,454.11 in Scotland.
• The off-route amounts under Invariants and the parameter table under Which years come from one household and parameter run, which gives the same 52 rows at e8831fb6b as at c91e960cf.
• Lint at 06e51a8ab: ruff format --check and ruff check (ruff 0.17.2) on the changed Python files, ruff check --select F811,F821 policyengine_uk and git diff --check: clean.

Fails on origin/main. On 2da212abc, child Cases 1-17 and tariff Cases 1-14 (we removed the new variables' outputs, since main lacks them) give 12 failed, 12 passed. The 12 failures cover the changed cases: the five applicable amounts with a child or young person (13,312 against 17,881.76, 17,881.76, 19,024.20 and 18,933.20, and the couple's 19,934.20 against 29,073.72) and the seven applicable incomes with capital over £10,000 (12,570 against 12,622 and 13,194 in each nation, and 14,514 against 15,138). The cases that should not move (no child, capital of £10,000, Guarantee Credit, savings credit only, working age) pass. The new property file's child and tariff tests (test_adding_a_dependent_child_never_lowers_the_applicable_amount, test_tariff_income_is_the_tariff_and_never_falls_as_capital_rises) fail on origin/main too (2 failed), because main has no council_tax_reduction_pensioner_child_amounts or council_tax_reduction_pensioner_tariff_income.

Differential against origin/main. We ran the same 23 fixed households (18 across the three nations and one English working-age family under each of the five local schemes) and 120 seeded random households (58 pensioners with no child and capital up to £10,000, 12 of them claiming Pension Credit, and 62 working-age families with any children and capital, 14 of them English families under the local schemes) through this branch and an export of 2da212abc, for 2019, 2024 and 2026. Of 2,145 values (applicable amount, applicable income, council_tax_benefit, council_tax_reduction_pensioner, council_tax_reduction), none differs. We ran that comparison at 15f986ada. We changed the Child Tax Credit award route and the uncapped Scottish tariff after that commit, and both affect only pensioners with children or with capital over £16,000. The compared households include neither, and test_matches_origin_main_on_unchanged_households reruns the 23 fixed ones against frozen origin/main values on this head.

Mutations. Each mutant, a scratch copy of this branch, ran against the YAML file it targets under a 2 GB memory cap, and every one fails:

Mutation	YAML file	Result
Award inference ignores gov.dwp.tax_credits.active	child amounts	1 failed, 21 passed: Case 22 (12,985.44 against 8,656.96)
Award inference runs only when gov.dwp.tax_credits.active reads false	child amounts	2 failed, 20 passed: Case 20 (8,656.96 against 12,985.44) and Case 22 (12,985.44 against 8,656.96)
Award read only from a positive final child_tax_credit, dropping nil-rate awards	child amounts	1 failed, 21 passed: Case 20 (8,656.96 against 12,985.44)
Award inference drops would_claim_CTC, so eligibility alone counts	child amounts	1 failed, 21 passed: Case 21 (12,985.44 against 8,656.96)
Tariff added inside the income floor	tariff income	1 failed, 16 passed: Case 17 (applicable income 0 against 52)
The closure condition also drops an entered final award	child amounts	1 failed, 22 passed: Case 23 (8,656.96 against 12,985.44)
Award gate keeps would_claim_CTC and drops is_CTC_eligible	child amounts	1 failed: Case 19 (12,985.44 against 8,656.96)
Award read only from the claim and eligibility, ignoring an entered final award	child amounts	1 failed: Case 18 (8,656.96 against 12,985.44)
England's two-child limit dropped	child amounts	2 failed: Cases 9 and 19
Child amounts without the pensioner test	child amounts	1 failed: Case 17, the working-age control
Tariff rounds down (np.floor for np.ceil)	tariff income	4 failed: Cases 2, 5, 8 and 17, the £10,001 cases
Scotland's tariff capped at £16,000	tariff income	1 failed: Case 15 (624 against 1,040)
Wales's tariff uncapped	tariff income	1 failed: Case 16 (1,040 against 624)
England's tariff uncapped	tariff income	1 failed: Case 11 (1,040 against 624)

The first six ran on this head's code: the first five at c5b07aec7, which had 22 child cases, and the sixth at e8831fb6b. At c5b07aec7 the sixth passed all 22, because no case entered an award under a closed scheme; Case 23 enters one and fails under it. The other eight ran on the code before the closure condition, and their failing cases set no reform. The condition changes a result only where gov.dwp.tax_credits.active reads false while England's limit runs, which current-law parameters never combine, so it leaves those cases unchanged.

Reproducer

Reproducer: policyengine_uk/tests/test_council_tax_reduction_pensioner_children_tariff_properties.py::test_adding_a_dependent_child_never_lowers_the_applicable_amount, policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/gov/local_authorities/council_tax_reduction/council_tax_reduction_pensioner_child_amounts.yaml, policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/gov/local_authorities/council_tax_reduction/council_tax_reduction_pensioner_tariff_income.yaml

axiom: TheAxiomFoundation/rulespec-uk#522 queued

The Welsh child amount, family premium and tariff modules in rulespec-uk agree for 2026-27. The child and family-premium modules apply 87.88 and 20.22 from 0001-01-01, so they cannot reproduce the 2021-22 amounts of 66.90 and 17.45. In the queued issue we cover that history, England's child amount, family premium and applicable amount, and Scotland's corresponding outputs. A signed encoder run needs separate approval. The pinned release holds England's provisions, including Sch 1 para 37; Scotland's reg 27 and Sch 1 para 3, and all earlier-year versions, need ingest and a new pin.

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Generated by Claude Code

[github-actions]

Aggregate impact on certified data: pass

Base 46a60678ff against head 2d90bcc1c8, both on enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5 (policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1, sha256 056e80fd8e91), fiscal years 2025-26 to 2031-32. Each year is a full microsimulation run on each side.

Checks: 0 broken by this change, 1 failing on both sides, 0 fixed. Moves flagged for review: 0 (thresholds in report_spec.yaml; a flag does not fail the job).

Workflow run and full report

Notes

• In the years a figure from fewer than 10 records is suppressed (spending.disabled_students_allowance), every total containing it, and the decile incomes, are rebuilt from their other components, so no published total includes it. Those totals are marked †. A change is withheld where the two sides leave out different figures and can't be lined up.

Moves flagged for review

None.

Spending by benefit and service

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Council Tax Reduction	-£0.1m	+£67,865	+£44,867	-£28,718	-£87,455	-£85,901	-£0.2m
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed

Caseloads

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Council Tax Reduction	+254	+255	+255	0	0	0	-104
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed

Government balance, each component counted once

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Government spending	-£0.1m †	+£67,865 †	+£44,867 †	-£28,718 †	-£87,455 †	-£85,901 †	-£0.2m †
Government balance, each receipt once	+£0.1m †	-£67,865 †	-£44,867 †	+£28,718 †	+£87,455 †	+£85,901 †	+£0.2m †

Model totals

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
gov_spending	-£0.1m †	+£67,865 †	+£44,867 †	-£28,718 †	-£87,455 †	-£85,901 †	-£0.2m †
household_benefits	-£0.1m †	+£67,865 †	+£44,867 †	-£28,718 †	-£87,455 †	-£85,901 †	-£0.2m †
gov_balance	+£0.1m †	-£67,865 †	-£44,867 †	+£28,718 †	+£87,455 †	+£85,901 †	+£0.2m †

Household income totals

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Household net income	-£0.1m †	+£67,865 †	+£44,867 †	-£28,718 †	-£87,455 †	-£85,901 †	-£0.2m †
Household net income (HBAI definition)	-£0.1m	+£67,868	+£44,869	-£28,717	-£87,453	-£85,900	-£0.2m

Inequality

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Gini coefficient, equivalised HBAI income before housing costs	-0.0000	-0.0000	-0.0000	-0.0000	-0.0000	-0.0000	-0.0000

Mean household net income in each side's own deciles

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household	-£0.31 †	-£0.32 †	-£0.36 †	0 †	0 †	0 †	0 †
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household	-£0.48 †	-£0.40 †	-£0.40 †	+£0.05 †	+£0.05 †	+£0.06 †	+£0.06 †
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household	-£0.04 †	+£0.24 †	-£0.03 †	-£0.04 †	-£0.05 †	-£0.06 †	-£0.07 †
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household	-£0.00 †	-£0.00 †	-£0.00 †	-£0.00 †	-£0.00 †	-£0.00 †	-£0.01 †
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household	-£2.07 †	-£0.01 †	-£0.01 †	-£0.01 †	-£0.01 †	-£0.02 †	-£0.02 †
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household	+£2.73 †	-£0.01 †	-£0.01 †	-£0.01 †	-£0.02 †	-£0.02 †	-£0.02 †

Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance)

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp	-£7,626	-£980	+£1,000	+£5,829	+£2	+£14	+£2,243
Raise higher rate by 1pp	+£0	0	0	+£0	+£0	+£0	+£0
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year	+£10,269	-£1,146	-£1,148	-£2	+£1	-£7	-£691
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child	+£0	0	-£1	+£0	+£0	+£0	+£0
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%	0	-£0	+£0	0	0	+£0	0
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%	+£0	-£1	+£1	-£1	0	suppressed	suppressed
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp	+£3	+£1	-£0	+£1	-£0	-£2	-£1
Raise additional rate by 3pp	+£0	0	-£0	+£0	0	suppressed	suppressed
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%	+£0	+£0	+£0	+£0	0	0	+£0
Raise the State Pension by 10%	+£41,465	-£23,643	-£24,591	+£36,702	+£15,259	+£1,305	-£26,041

Standard reforms: change in each reform's target

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%: change in national_insurance	0	0	0	0	0	suppressed	suppressed
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax	0	0	0	0	0	suppressed	suppressed

Household net income by decile

Mean change in household net income per household, and as a share of the decile's base income; households stay in the base run's deciles.

Base decile	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Decile 1	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	0	0	0	0
Decile 2	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change
Decile 3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Decile 4	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change
Decile 5	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change
Decile 6	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change
Decile 7	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Decile 8	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Decile 9	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Decile 10	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
all	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Year	People gaining over £1	People losing over £1
2025-26	0.0%	0.0%
2026-27	0.0%	0.0%
2027-28	0.0%	0.0%
2028-29	0.0%	0.0%
2029-30	0.0%	0.0%
2030-31	0.0%	0.0%
2031-32	0.0%	0.0%

No change in any year: receipts by tax head; population; poverty rates; people in poverty.

Checks failing on both base and head (1)

• VAT excluding private school fees is never negative (sign:vat): 2025-26: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-53,888,684 in total; 2026-27: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-55,777,260 in total; 2027-28: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-57,727,917 in total

Counted-once check

Each of 92 components was raised by £1 per unit in 2026-27, and every head of its totals was read household by household: its own head must rise by exactly £1, no other tax head may move, no other benefit may rise, and the model's own total must move by what its heads moved. A head that breaks a rule is measured again twice: with every other head held at its baseline value, and with every other head held at its value after the first £1 while the component rises again. It fails where either still shows the response. 0 failed; 0 were skipped.

• widowed_parents_allowance: pension_credit responds only through other heads in fewer than 10 households (other heads that moved there: carers_allowance; gov_spending; not a failure)
• widowed_parents_allowance: pension_credit responds only through other heads in fewer than 10 households (other heads that moved there: carers_allowance; household_benefits; not a failure)

Provenance

Side	Commit	Runtime	Environment hash	Partition hash	Time
base	main 46a60678ff	uk 2.170.2 (files 313aa9b13826), core 3.33.12, py 3.13.18 aarch64	55127f469306	7cb61324a46b	2091.51s
head	#2826 merged into main 2d90bcc1c8	uk 2.170.2 (files 3288ff300873), core 3.33.12, py 3.13.18 aarch64	55127f469306	7cb61324a46b	2094.54s

Dataset: hf://policyengine/policyengine-uk-data-private/enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5@2526edbbb687a3b54dbb11272e5389e4b62d2ac2, sha256 056e80fd8e9151d78f432a25cde863340baee81304c6216a37fb575ce8563784 (verified on both sides), policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1.

Receipts by tax head: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Final charge on cash interest in non-cash ISAs	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Lifetime ISA withdrawal charge	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Income tax	£294.46bn	£315.23bn	£335.82bn	£351.28bn	£366.96bn	£385.36bn	£400.00bn
National Insurance (employee and self-employed)	£51.70bn	£54.14bn	£56.13bn	£57.73bn	£59.76bn	£61.64bn	£63.51bn
National Insurance (employer)	£148.71bn	£155.37bn	£160.88bn	£165.09bn	£172.06bn	£177.36bn	£182.57bn
Employer NI change borne by capital	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Employer NI change borne by consumers	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Capital gains tax	£12.60bn	£13.15bn	£13.60bn	£14.11bn	£14.67bn	£15.24bn	£15.80bn
Student loan repayments	£7.82bn	£8.13bn	£8.39bn	£8.58bn	£8.79bn	£9.04bn	£9.29bn
VAT excluding private school fees	£249.37bn	£256.87bn	£266.33bn	£272.70bn	£278.97bn	£285.24bn	£291.59bn
Change in VAT from its baseline	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
VAT on private school fees	£1.95bn	£2.01bn	£2.09bn	£2.14bn	£2.20bn	£2.26bn	£2.31bn
Change in private school VAT from its baseline	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Fuel duties	£24.71bn	£24.13bn	£26.00bn	£26.83bn	£26.51bn	£25.78bn	£24.63bn
Alcohol duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Tobacco duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Vehicle excise duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Betting and gaming duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
TV licence fee	£4.26bn	£4.40bn	£4.41bn	£4.42bn	£4.43bn	£4.44bn	£4.45bn
Council tax	£49.21bn	£52.16bn	£54.89bn	£57.95bn	£61.16bn	£64.47bn	£67.91bn
High value council tax surcharge	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.48bn	£0.49bn	£0.50bn	£0.51bn
Northern Ireland domestic rates	£0.55bn	£0.58bn	£0.60bn	£0.63bn	£0.66bn	£0.69bn	£0.72bn
Business rates	£34.68bn	£36.20bn	£38.00bn	£39.46bn	£42.27bn	£43.25bn	£44.29bn
Stamp duty land tax on the household's own purchases	£6.88bn	£7.32bn	£7.66bn	£8.06bn	£8.47bn	£8.91bn	£9.35bn
Stamp duty land tax paid by companies	£4.72bn	£4.57bn	£5.29bn	£6.03bn	£6.37bn	£6.92bn	£7.45bn
Land transaction tax (Wales)	£0.07bn	£0.08bn	£0.08bn	£0.09bn	£0.10bn	£0.10bn	£0.11bn
Land and buildings transaction tax (Scotland)	£0.31bn	£0.32bn	£0.33bn	£0.35bn	£0.36bn	£0.38bn	£0.40bn
Unspecified tax change borne by capital	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Unspecified tax change borne by consumers	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Wealth tax	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Wealth tax excluding the main residence	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Land value tax	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Carbon tax	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn

Spending by benefit and service: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Lifetime ISA bonus	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
State Pension	£121.68bn	£125.92bn	£126.72bn	£129.49bn	£132.99bn	£136.66bn	£140.42bn
Pension Credit	£6.66bn	£7.03bn	£7.29bn	£7.48bn	£7.60bn	£7.84bn	£8.03bn
Winter Fuel Payment	£1.86bn	£1.85bn	£1.79bn	£1.77bn	£1.78bn	£1.78bn	£1.78bn
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland)	£0.19bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.21bn	£0.21bn	£0.22bn	£0.22bn
Universal Credit	£75.48bn	£80.52bn	£82.95bn	£84.96bn	£86.11bn	£87.61bn	£88.21bn
Housing Benefit	£8.56bn	£8.89bn	£9.23bn	£9.46bn	£9.69bn	£9.99bn	£10.27bn
Council Tax Reduction	£2.07bn	£2.20bn	£2.31bn	£2.45bn	£2.58bn	£2.72bn	£2.86bn
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related)	£0.79bn	£0.82bn	£0.84bn	£0.86bn	£0.88bn	£0.90bn	£0.92bn
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based)	£5.20bn	£5.37bn	£5.56bn	£5.69bn	£5.82bn	£5.95bn	£6.09bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based)	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based)	£0.29bn	£0.30bn	£0.31bn	£0.31bn	£0.32bn	£0.33bn	£0.34bn
Income Support	£0.11bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Working Tax Credit	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Child Tax Credit	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Incapacity Benefit	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Personal Independence Payment	£26.95bn	£28.03bn	£29.05bn	£30.09bn	£30.75bn	£31.51bn	£32.21bn
Disability Living Allowance	£7.49bn	£7.79bn	£8.07bn	£8.36bn	£8.55bn	£8.76bn	£8.95bn
Attendance Allowance	£8.68bn	£9.03bn	£9.36bn	£9.69bn	£9.90bn	£10.15bn	£10.38bn
Carer's Allowance	£4.48bn	£4.66bn	£4.83bn	£5.00bn	£5.11bn	£5.27bn	£5.42bn
Carer Support Payment (Scotland)	£0.31bn	£0.32bn	£0.33bn	£0.34bn	£0.35bn	£0.36bn	£0.37bn
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland)	£0.00bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn
Severe Disablement Allowance	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit	£0.50bn	£0.52bn	£0.54bn	£0.55bn	£0.56bn	£0.58bn	£0.59bn
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme	£0.61bn	£0.63bn	£0.65bn	£0.66bn	£0.68bn	£0.69bn	£0.71bn
War Widow's or Widower's Pension	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Child Benefit	£16.19bn	£16.82bn	£17.39bn	£18.00bn	£18.39bn	£18.84bn	£19.25bn
Scottish Child Payment	£0.49bn	£0.52bn	£0.53bn	£0.55bn	£0.56bn	£0.57bn	£0.56bn
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual)	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Healthy Start vouchers	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn
Maternity Allowance	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Statutory Maternity Pay	£3.30bn	£3.41bn	£3.54bn	£3.62bn	£3.70bn	£3.78bn	£3.87bn
Statutory Paternity Pay	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Statutory Sick Pay	£1.12bn	£1.16bn	£1.20bn	£1.23bn	£1.26bn	£1.29bn	£1.32bn
Sure Start Maternity Grant	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn
Bereavement Support Payment	£0.67bn	£0.69bn	£0.71bn	£0.73bn	£0.75bn	£0.76bn	£0.78bn
Widowed Parent's Allowance	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Tax-Free Childcare	£0.56bn	£0.57bn	£0.57bn	£0.58bn	£0.60bn	£0.61bn	£0.59bn
Extended childcare entitlement	£2.99bn	£3.50bn	£3.59bn	£3.71bn	£3.78bn	£3.86bn	£3.93bn
Universal childcare entitlement	£2.06bn	£2.22bn	£2.29bn	£2.37bn	£2.43bn	£2.48bn	£2.53bn
Targeted childcare entitlement	£0.50bn	£0.51bn	£0.52bn	£0.54bn	£0.55bn	£0.57bn	£0.56bn
Childcare Offer for Wales	£0.26bn	£0.28bn	£0.28bn	£0.29bn	£0.30bn	£0.31bn	£0.32bn
Care to Learn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Childcare Grant	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Parents' Learning Allowance	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn
Adult Dependants' Grant	£0.06bn	£0.06bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn
Travel Grant	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
NHS spending	£203.89bn	£204.30bn	£204.56bn	£204.91bn	£205.34bn	£205.85bn	£206.35bn
State education spending	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn
Transport subsidy spending	£25.05bn	£25.10bn	£25.14bn	£25.18bn	£25.23bn	£25.30bn	£25.36bn
Cost-of-living support payment	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Energy Bills Rebate	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Household Energy Payment	£0.00bn	£2.11bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Basic income	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Disability basic income	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Other public spending budget change	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn

Caseloads: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Lifetime ISA bonus	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
State Pension	11,264k	11,145k	10,819k	10,700k	10,723k	10,750k	10,776k
Pension Credit	1,486k	1,480k	1,472k	1,452k	1,450k	1,455k	1,464k
Winter Fuel Payment	7,844k	7,783k	7,473k	7,375k	7,391k	7,409k	7,427k
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland)	803k	802k	800k	797k	799k	801k	802k
Universal Credit	6,342k	6,347k	6,336k	6,297k	6,292k	6,271k	6,223k
Housing Benefit	1,249k	1,245k	1,244k	1,227k	1,227k	1,229k	1,232k
Council Tax Reduction	3,176k	3,195k	3,201k	3,214k	3,224k	3,235k	3,242k
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related)	71k	71k	71k	71k	71k	71k	71k
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based)	719k	720k	721k	722k	724k	726k	728k
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based)	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based)	67k	67k	67k	67k	67k	68k	68k
Income Support	25k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Working Tax Credit	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Child Tax Credit	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Incapacity Benefit	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Personal Independence Payment	3,567k	3,575k	3,579k	3,585k	3,593k	3,602k	3,611k
Disability Living Allowance	1,291k	1,294k	1,296k	1,298k	1,300k	1,304k	1,307k
Attendance Allowance	1,695k	1,698k	1,700k	1,703k	1,707k	1,711k	1,715k
Carer's Allowance	1,034k	1,037k	1,038k	1,040k	1,042k	1,060k	1,062k
Carer Support Payment (Scotland)	71k	71k	71k	72k	72k	72k	72k
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland)	0k	71k	71k	72k	72k	72k	72k
Severe Disablement Allowance	4k	4k	4k	4k	4k	4k	4k
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit	137k	137k	137k	138k	138k	138k	139k
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme	93k	93k	94k	94k	94k	94k	94k
War Widow's or Widower's Pension	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Child Benefit	8,123k	8,120k	8,120k	8,130k	8,145k	8,161k	8,178k
Scottish Child Payment	351k	352k	352k	353k	350k	348k	337k
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual)	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Healthy Start vouchers	200k	200k	200k	201k	201k	201k	202k
Maternity Allowance	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Statutory Maternity Pay	333k	333k	334k	334k	335k	336k	337k
Statutory Paternity Pay	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Statutory Sick Pay	181k	182k	182k	182k	182k	183k	183k
Sure Start Maternity Grant	26k	26k	26k	26k	26k	26k	26k
Bereavement Support Payment	98k	98k	98k	98k	98k	99k	99k
Widowed Parent's Allowance	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Tax-Free Childcare	1,043k	1,027k	1,014k	1,009k	1,011k	1,009k	993k
Extended childcare entitlement	795k	800k	796k	797k	798k	798k	792k
Universal childcare entitlement	1,071k	1,072k	1,072k	1,073k	1,076k	1,079k	1,074k
Targeted childcare entitlement	165k	156k	154k	154k	155k	155k	150k
Childcare Offer for Wales	39k	39k	39k	39k	39k	39k	39k
Care to Learn	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Childcare Grant	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Parents' Learning Allowance	98k	98k	98k	99k	99k	99k	99k
Adult Dependants' Grant	18k	18k	12k	12k	12k	12k	12k
Travel Grant	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Cost-of-living support payment	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Energy Bills Rebate	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Household Energy Payment	0k	21,065k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Basic income	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Disability basic income	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k

Government balance, each component counted once: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Government receipts, each component once	£892.00bn	£934.66bn	£980.50bn	£1,015.93bn	£1,054.24bn	£1,091.56bn	£1,124.89bn
Government spending	£529.38bn †	£545.66bn †	£550.77bn †	£559.51bn †	£567.20bn †	£575.95bn †	£583.60bn †
Government balance, each receipt once	£362.62bn †	£389.00bn †	£429.73bn †	£456.42bn †	£487.04bn †	£515.61bn †	£541.29bn †
Benefits in household_benefits but not in gov_spending	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn

Model totals: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
gov_tax	£892.00bn	£934.66bn	£980.50bn	£1,015.93bn	£1,054.24bn	£1,091.56bn	£1,124.89bn
household_tax	£491.97bn	£520.41bn	£551.21bn	£576.01bn	£601.00bn	£626.70bn	£648.42bn
pre_budget_change_household_tax	£484.15bn	£512.28bn	£542.82bn	£566.95bn	£591.72bn	£617.16bn	£638.61bn
gov_spending	£529.38bn †	£545.66bn †	£550.77bn †	£559.51bn †	£567.20bn †	£575.95bn †	£583.60bn †
household_benefits	£529.38bn †	£545.66bn †	£550.77bn †	£559.51bn †	£567.20bn †	£575.95bn †	£583.60bn †
gov_balance	£362.62bn †	£389.00bn †	£429.73bn †	£456.42bn †	£487.04bn †	£515.61bn †	£541.29bn †

Household income totals: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Household market income	£1,637.96bn	£1,702.77bn	£1,757.35bn	£1,806.41bn	£1,855.97bn	£1,912.43bn	£1,970.44bn
Household net income	£1,636.69bn †	£1,687.82bn †	£1,715.45bn †	£1,747.49bn †	£1,778.69bn †	£1,817.02bn †	£1,859.69bn †
Household net income (HBAI definition)	£1,449.57bn	£1,499.83bn	£1,530.86bn	£1,565.17bn	£1,597.89bn	£1,635.60bn	£1,676.61bn

Population: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
People	69,245k	69,383k	69,473k	69,592k	69,738k	69,912k	70,080k
Benefit units	35,110k	35,181k	35,226k	35,286k	35,360k	35,449k	35,534k
Households	31,046k	31,108k	31,149k	31,201k	31,267k	31,345k	31,420k

Poverty rates: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone	16.3%	15.5%	16.4%	16.3%	16.5%	16.5%	16.6%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children	24.7%	22.1%	23.3%	22.9%	23.1%	23.2%	23.5%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	14.1%	13.8%	14.7%	14.7%	14.8%	14.8%	15.0%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	13.7%	13.4%	14.0%	13.8%	13.9%	13.9%	13.9%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone	21.6%	21.0%	22.0%	22.6%	22.9%	23.1%	23.4%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children	33.3%	31.3%	32.3%	32.5%	32.9%	33.4%	34.2%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	19.9%	19.8%	20.8%	21.6%	21.9%	22.0%	22.3%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	12.7%	12.4%	13.2%	13.2%	13.3%	13.4%	13.6%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone	17.0%	16.0%	16.4%	16.3%	16.4%	16.3%	16.6%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children	25.9%	22.9%	23.3%	22.9%	23.0%	22.9%	23.5%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	14.5%	14.1%	14.6%	14.7%	14.7%	14.7%	15.0%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	14.5%	14.0%	13.9%	13.8%	13.8%	13.9%	13.9%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone	21.4%	21.0%	21.3%	21.3%	21.3%	21.5%	21.7%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children	33.1%	31.1%	31.2%	31.0%	31.1%	31.2%	31.8%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	19.9%	19.8%	20.2%	20.4%	20.5%	20.6%	20.8%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	12.5%	12.4%	12.2%	11.7%	11.7%	11.8%	12.0%

People in poverty: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone	11,278k	10,779k	11,402k	11,365k	11,476k	11,513k	11,651k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children	3,688k	3,314k	3,496k	3,445k	3,480k	3,502k	3,549k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	5,965k	5,893k	6,308k	6,362k	6,420k	6,430k	6,521k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	1,624k	1,572k	1,598k	1,558k	1,576k	1,580k	1,581k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone	14,944k	14,600k	15,310k	15,721k	15,937k	16,141k	16,426k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children	4,975k	4,682k	4,837k	4,888k	4,945k	5,040k	5,179k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	8,463k	8,461k	8,971k	9,344k	9,491k	9,584k	9,706k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	1,506k	1,457k	1,502k	1,490k	1,501k	1,517k	1,542k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone	11,750k	11,084k	11,388k	11,364k	11,416k	11,415k	11,651k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children	3,872k	3,423k	3,496k	3,445k	3,466k	3,454k	3,549k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	6,159k	6,013k	6,301k	6,362k	6,389k	6,389k	6,521k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	1,720k	1,648k	1,590k	1,557k	1,562k	1,572k	1,581k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone	14,849k	14,552k	14,776k	14,809k	14,874k	15,014k	15,234k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children	4,942k	4,660k	4,673k	4,663k	4,679k	4,707k	4,806k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	8,426k	8,440k	8,711k	8,823k	8,873k	8,967k	9,062k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	1,482k	1,452k	1,392k	1,323k	1,322k	1,339k	1,365k

Inequality: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Gini coefficient, equivalised HBAI income before housing costs	0.3080	0.3052	0.3058	0.3058	0.3063	0.3069	0.3085

Mean household net income in each side's own deciles: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household	£17,680 †	£17,997 †	£17,914 †	£18,152 †	£18,307 †	£18,531 †	£18,717 †
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household	£27,939 †	£29,022 †	£28,710 †	£29,013 †	£29,276 †	£29,691 †	£30,150 †
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household	£34,320 †	£35,485 †	£36,073 †	£36,611 †	£37,197 †	£37,736 †	£38,187 †
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household	£38,933 †	£40,687 †	£41,723 †	£42,727 †	£43,334 †	£44,132 †	£44,432 †
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household	£43,237 †	£45,567 †	£46,014 †	£46,959 †	£47,712 †	£48,584 †	£50,282 †
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household	£47,930 †	£49,210 †	£50,892 †	£51,939 †	£52,944 †	£53,942 †	£54,680 †
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household	£55,662 †	£56,571 †	£57,442 †	£57,670 †	£58,729 †	£59,657 †	£61,082 †
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household	£68,789 †	£70,803 †	£71,858 †	£73,466 †	£73,880 †	£75,320 †	£77,178 †
Decile 9: mean household_net_income per household	£78,890 †	£81,013 †	£80,861 †	£82,646 †	£85,464 †	£86,946 †	£89,509 †
Decile 10: mean household_net_income per household	£117,005 †	£120,339 †	£124,742 †	£126,632 †	£125,971 †	£128,600 †	£130,938 †

Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance): head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp	£6.41bn	£6.66bn	£6.63bn	£6.85bn	£7.03bn	£7.25bn	£7.49bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp	£3.61bn	£3.87bn	£4.00bn	£4.22bn	£4.44bn	£4.71bn	£4.83bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year	£-3.80bn	£-3.92bn	£-3.98bn	£-4.04bn	£-4.10bn	£-4.23bn	£-1.95bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child	£-1.99bn	£-1.75bn	£-1.55bn	£-1.38bn	£-1.30bn	£-1.18bn	£-1.07bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%	£-20.77bn	£-21.32bn	£-21.75bn	£-21.99bn	£-22.34bn	£-22.75bn	£-22.94bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%	£10.89bn	£11.30bn	£11.71bn	£12.01bn	£12.31bn	suppressed	suppressed
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp	£24.89bn	£25.71bn	£26.63bn	£27.24bn	£27.87bn	£28.50bn	£29.14bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp	£2.90bn	£3.15bn	£3.22bn	£3.41bn	£3.61bn	suppressed	suppressed
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%	£-3.06bn	£-3.18bn	£-3.26bn	£-3.35bn	£-3.44bn	£-3.49bn	£-3.50bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%	£-7.78bn	£-8.01bn	£-8.24bn	£-8.47bn	£-8.82bn	£-8.55bn	£-8.89bn

Standard reforms: change in each reform's target: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp: change in income_tax	£6.55bn	£6.86bn	£6.79bn	£7.00bn	£7.20bn	£7.44bn	£7.66bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp: change in income_tax	£3.61bn	£3.92bn	£4.01bn	£4.23bn	£4.45bn	£4.72bn	£4.84bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year: change in income_tax	£-3.93bn	£-4.07bn	£-4.13bn	£-4.18bn	£-4.22bn	£-4.40bn	£-1.75bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child: change in child_benefit	£2.33bn	£2.14bn	£1.94bn	£1.76bn	£1.65bn	£1.52bn	£1.40bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%: change in universal_credit	£20.74bn	£21.31bn	£21.78bn	£22.04bn	£22.37bn	£22.78bn	£22.99bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%: change in national_insurance	£11.15bn	£11.63bn	£12.00bn	£12.29bn	£12.61bn	suppressed	suppressed
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp: change in vat	£24.69bn	£25.51bn	£26.42bn	£27.03bn	£27.65bn	£28.28bn	£28.91bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax	£2.90bn	£3.15bn	£3.22bn	£3.42bn	£3.62bn	suppressed	suppressed
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%: change in universal_credit	£3.06bn	£3.19bn	£3.28bn	£3.37bn	£3.43bn	£3.49bn	£3.51bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%: change in state_pension	£10.68bn	£11.17bn	£11.28bn	£11.60bn	£12.03bn	£12.47bn	£12.97bn

[juaristi22]

Reviewed 06e51a8ab57d5c2bce6f98c3b2f0f763b17b6a0a. COMPLETE; no findings or material evidence gaps within the disclosed scope.

Independent source review checked the historical child/family amounts, England's two-child limit and nil-rate CTC exception, the different tariff ceilings, and Pension Credit routing. In particular, England's paragraph 37 caps the capital counted for tariff income; Scotland's regulation 27 does not, with its separate capital-entitlement rule retained. The actual Axiom #522 dispatch includes the source excerpts, outputs, companion cases and signed-encoder/ingest blocker; completed encoding is not claimed.

100 local tests passed, zero failures/skips, in one bounded serial run: 81 YAML cases and 19 properties. Six ordinary-input calculations plus one explicitly supplied-award contract cover final CTR/household income, Guarantee Credit, savings-credit-only, positive/nil-rate CTC and closure. The Welsh native child/family/tariff case increases both CTR and household income by £1,113.84 against a control setting only the new components to zero; that is a component control, not a separate prior-branch run. Current-head hosted checks also pass.

The stated annual 30 April convention, transitional/protected-family and existing disability-premium exclusions remain scope qualifications; this approval does not certify those omitted histories or the author's private population results. Approving this head after a fresh activity/readiness/required-CI check.