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Add /anywhere: open microsimulation anywhere#22

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MaxGhenis merged 3 commits into
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anywhere-page
Jul 5, 2026
Merged

Add /anywhere: open microsimulation anywhere#22
MaxGhenis merged 3 commits into
masterfrom
anywhere-page

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What this adds

A new /anywhere page positioned as an application of the populace stack — not a seventh strategy aspect — plus a separate application strip on the front page linking to it.

The page (/anywhere/index.html)

  • The thesis: most countries' household microdata is restricted; rules engines are no longer the bottleneck, data access is.
  • One operation, three domain distances: reweighting one national file to a US congressional district, to the UK, and to Belgium is the same operator at increasing domain distance — shown as a single domain-distance diagram in the shared .dg-* SVG vocabulary.
  • The validation protocol: validate where native microdata exists, deploy where it doesn't.
  • A custodian-run evaluation section: a pinned, pre-registered evaluation pack a data custodian runs locally against restricted ground truth, publishing only a low-dimensional scorecard — "open microsimulation anywhere does not require open microdata anywhere; it requires an open referee." No partner or institution is named.
  • Belgium (measured, verbatim): 21/21 calibration targets within 1.8%; Axiom vs EUROMOD worker SSC agree to €643 on €20.9B on an identical population.
  • United Kingdom (held-out leg, v1 as-found): the first evaluation has run against the native FRS holdout — 3 of 4 survey views clearly distinct from native, floor at chance, determinism confirmed — and it diagnosed a concrete feed defect (a missing retirement stream that zeroed state pensions and cascaded into pension credit and household benefits). Every v1 number carries a provenance marker to the specific run artifact.

UK numbers are partial — v1.1 is pending

The UK leg reports real v1 "as-found" results only. A repaired-feed v1.1 rerun (retirement stream restored, scoring config unchanged so the pre-registration stays intact) is still in production by a parallel run. Every v1.1 slot on the page is marked [PENDING: uk-transfer v1.1] and no v1.1 number is asserted.

Front page

A new "03 — an application, not a seventh strategy" strip sits between the six-aspect stack grid and the sources section, with a single card linking to /anywhere. Subsequent sections renumbered (sources 04, releases 05, evidence 06, commons 07).

Design-system compliance

  • Zero hardcoded hex in the diff (a distinct accent role reuses --chart-2, already in the shared palette; verified with grep).
  • Both diagrams carry full ARIA (role="img", aria-labelledby, <title>, <desc>).
  • Sentence-case headings; house .strategy-hero / .band / .metrics / .cards / .dg-* / .not-yet patterns.
  • No horizontal scroll at 375px (verified: document scrollWidth == viewport width).

Note

While testing this page I found a pre-existing bug: the homepage and all six strategy pages are missing <script src="/reveal.js" defer></script>, so their band content never receives the .in-view class and stays at opacity: 0. /anywhere includes the script, so it reveals correctly. The pre-existing gap is out of scope for this PR and flagged separately.

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

New application page positioned as an application of the six-strategy
stack, not a seventh aspect. Content: the data-access-is-the-bottleneck
thesis; one-operation/three-distances (CD -> UK -> BE) domain-distance
diagram; the validate-where-truth-exists / deploy-where-it-doesn't
protocol; a custodian-run evaluation section (pinned pre-registered eval
pack, custodian runs locally against restricted data and publishes only a
scorecard); Belgium numbers verbatim (21/21 within 1.8%, EUR 643 on
EUR 20.9B SSC); and the UK held-out leg with real v1 as-found results
(3/4 views clearly distinct vs native FRS) plus the state-pension defect
the referee diagnosed. v1.1 slots marked pending. Front page gains a
separate application strip linking to /anywhere; sections renumbered.

All colors from CSS variables; no hardcoded hex. Verified no horizontal
scroll at 375px.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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Project Deployment Actions Updated (UTC)
populace-dev Ready Ready Preview, Comment Jul 5, 2026 7:16pm

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…aw-file measurement exists); attribute q99 tail to capital-gains concept mismatch per diagnosis
Replace every [PENDING: uk-transfer v1.1] slot with measured v1.1 values
in house style ([SOURCE: ...] mono markers), completed tense throughout.
Both the "v1 measured" cards (calibration targets, held-out FRS score)
stay as the historical v1 record; the pending card becomes "v1.1
measured" stating the headline movement (3/4 -> 2/4 clearly distinct)
and the net_income energy-ratio doubling (6.3x -> 12.5x) together, per
house rule never to present the band improvement without the
proper-score deterioration.

Updates the domain-distance diagram (stop 2 kicker/label/figcaption),
the distance-rail UK paragraph, the section head and intro prose, the
custodian-defect paragraph (now completed tense, both directions), and
the calibration-MARE caveat paragraph, which gains the symmetric
counterpart clause required by the Phase 2 reconciliation finding: the
transfer's 87-targets-at-exactly-1.0 empty-estimate count alongside
native's existing 26-overshoot-target framing.

Verified: 0 remaining [PENDING] strings, ARIA unchanged (2x role=img,
2x aria-labelledby), 0 new hardcoded hex, all tags balanced, and no
horizontal overflow at 375px or 1280px (checked programmatically via a
headless Chromium render — docScrollWidth == docClientWidth at both
widths). Fixed one line-wrap artifact ("market -income" -> "market
-income" -> "market-income") caught in the 375px screenshot pass.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis MaxGhenis merged commit ca8cf79 into master Jul 5, 2026
2 checks passed
@MaxGhenis MaxGhenis deleted the anywhere-page branch July 5, 2026 21:39
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