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feat(planner): plan with the published prices only #1440

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5 changes: 5 additions & 0 deletions .changeset/published-prices-only.md
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@@ -0,0 +1,5 @@
---
"ftw": minor
---

The planner uses the electricity prices that are published, and no longer estimates prices beyond them. The plan reaches as far as the day-ahead prices, which is 11–35 hours: tomorrow's prices usually arrive around 13:00. The Plan view has no "predicted" zone any more. It says how far the plan reaches, for example "Plan until Sat 24:00", and the chart ends there. The Home Assistant plan and price attributes no longer include `confidence`, which was always 1 outside the removed forecast. An EV target later than the last published price is planned within the known prices until the next day's prices arrive.
26 changes: 1 addition & 25 deletions go/cmd/ftw/main.go
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Expand Up @@ -60,7 +60,6 @@ import (
"github.com/srcfl/ftw/go/internal/notifications"
"github.com/srcfl/ftw/go/internal/nova"
"github.com/srcfl/ftw/go/internal/ocpp"
"github.com/srcfl/ftw/go/internal/priceforecast"
"github.com/srcfl/ftw/go/internal/prices"
"github.com/srcfl/ftw/go/internal/proxy"
"github.com/srcfl/ftw/go/internal/pvmodel"
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -930,7 +929,7 @@ func main() {

// Forward-declared so the hot-reload closure below can push
// capacity changes into the running planner. Assigned at line
// ~450 after all its dependencies (pvSvc, loadSvc, priceFc) are
// ~450 after all its dependencies (pvSvc, loadSvc) are
// wired up. nil until that point — the reload closure guards.
var mpcSvc *mpc.Service

Expand Down Expand Up @@ -1131,7 +1130,6 @@ func main() {
mpcSvc.ExportBonusOreKwh = newCfg.Price.ExportBonusOreKwh
mpcSvc.ExportFeeOreKwh = newCfg.Price.ExportFeeOreKwh
mpcSvc.ExportFloorOreKwh = newCfg.Price.ExportFloorOreKwh
mpcSvc.GridTariffOreKwh = newCfg.Price.GridTariffOreKwh
mpcSvc.VATPercent = newCfg.Price.VATPercent
mpcSvc.DemandPricePerKW = newCfg.Price.DemandPricePerKW
mpcSvc.DemandTopN = newCfg.Price.DemandTopN
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -1268,25 +1266,6 @@ func main() {

priceSvc = prices.FromConfig(cfg.Price, st, fxSvc)

// ---- Price forecaster (fills in beyond day-ahead publication) ----
zones := []string{"SE3"}
if cfg.Price != nil && cfg.Price.Zone != "" {
zones = []string{cfg.Price.Zone}
}
priceFc := priceforecast.NewService(st, zones)
// Optional: seed from bundled CSV on first boot. Idempotent so safe
// to call every boot — no-op once data is already in the store.
seedPath := filepath.Join(filepath.Dir(*configPath), "seed", "prices.csv")
if _, err := os.Stat(seedPath); err == nil {
n, err := priceFc.SeedFromCSV(seedPath)
if err != nil {
slog.Warn("priceforecast seed failed", "path", seedPath, "err", err)
} else if n > 0 {
slog.Info("priceforecast seeded", "rows", n, "path", seedPath)
}
}
priceFc.Start(ctx)
defer priceFc.Stop()
if priceSvc != nil {
priceSvc.Start(ctx)
defer priceSvc.Stop()
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -1650,7 +1629,6 @@ func main() {
mpcSvc.MinArbitrageSpreadOreKwh = cfg.Planner.MinArbitrageSpreadOreKwh
}
mpcSvc.Load = loadSvc.Predict
mpcSvc.Price = priceFc.Predict
mpcSvc.SiteMeter = cfg.SiteMeterDriver()
// The mathematical planner co-optimizes every scheduled loadpoint.
// The service retains the first entry for its Go-DP emergency fallback.
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -1837,7 +1815,6 @@ func main() {
mpcSvc.ExportBonusOreKwh = cfg.Price.ExportBonusOreKwh
mpcSvc.ExportFeeOreKwh = cfg.Price.ExportFeeOreKwh
mpcSvc.ExportFloorOreKwh = cfg.Price.ExportFloorOreKwh
mpcSvc.GridTariffOreKwh = cfg.Price.GridTariffOreKwh
mpcSvc.VATPercent = cfg.Price.VATPercent
mpcSvc.DemandPricePerKW = cfg.Price.DemandPricePerKW
mpcSvc.DemandTopN = cfg.Price.DemandTopN
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -4312,7 +4289,6 @@ func (b mpcPlanBridge) LatestActions() []ha.PlanAction {
PriceOre: a.PriceOre,
SpotOre: a.SpotOre,
CostOre: a.CostOre,
Confidence: a.Confidence,
Reason: a.Reason,
EMSMode: a.EMSMode,
PVW: a.PVW,
Expand Down
6 changes: 2 additions & 4 deletions go/internal/control/ev_site_test.go
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Expand Up @@ -63,12 +63,10 @@ func TestEVSiteOptimizeThenDispatchChargesEVFromPVBesideBatteryImport(t *testing
slots := []mpc.Slot{
{
StartMs: slot.UnixMilli(), LenMin: 60,
PriceOre: 20, SpotOre: 10, LoadW: evComboLoadW, PVW: evComboPVW, Confidence: 1,
},
PriceOre: 20, SpotOre: 10, LoadW: evComboLoadW, PVW: evComboPVW},
{
StartMs: slot.Add(time.Hour).UnixMilli(), LenMin: 60,
PriceOre: 300, SpotOre: 240, LoadW: 2500, PVW: 0, Confidence: 1,
},
PriceOre: 300, SpotOre: 240, LoadW: 2500, PVW: 0},
}
params := mpc.Params{
Mode: mpc.ModeArbitrage,
Expand Down
18 changes: 8 additions & 10 deletions go/internal/ha/bridge.go
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Expand Up @@ -72,7 +72,6 @@ type PlanAction struct {
PriceOre float64 // total consumer price (öre/kWh)
SpotOre float64 // raw wholesale spot price (öre/kWh)
CostOre float64 // expected cost this slot (öre, negative = revenue)
Confidence float64 // forecast confidence 0–1
Reason string // human-readable DP reason
EMSMode string // effective EMS mode the planner chose
PVW float64 // planned PV output (site-sign, ≤ 0)
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -623,7 +622,7 @@ func (b *Bridge) publishDiscovery() {
total++

// Current electricity price sensor: state = total consumer price (öre/kWh),
// attrs = spot_ore, cost_ore, confidence, reason, ems_mode.
// attrs = spot_ore, cost_ore, reason, ems_mode.
priceMsg := b.withAvail(map[string]any{
"name": "Electricity Price",
"unique_id": b.deviceID + "_price_ore",
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -1151,7 +1150,7 @@ func (b *Bridge) announceVehicleDriver(dev map[string]any, driver string) {
// Assistant's recorder keeps it (#1296)
// - plan_schedule_json: the full schedule with every field, own topic
// - price_ore: current consumer electricity price (öre/kWh)
// - price_json: price attributes (spot_ore, cost_ore, confidence, reason, ems_mode)
// - price_json: price attributes (spot_ore, cost_ore, reason, ems_mode)
func (b *Bridge) publishPlan() {
actions := b.plan.LatestActions()
now := time.Now()
Expand All @@ -1160,7 +1159,7 @@ func (b *Bridge) publishPlan() {
currentAction := snapshot.Action
cur := snapshot.Current
curPVW, curLoadW := cur.PVW, cur.LoadW
curPriceOre, curSpotOre, curCostOre, curConfidence := cur.PriceOre, cur.SpotOre, cur.CostOre, cur.Confidence
curPriceOre, curSpotOre, curCostOre := cur.PriceOre, cur.SpotOre, cur.CostOre
curReason, curEMSMode := cur.Reason, cur.EMSMode

b.publishString("plan_action", currentAction)
Expand All @@ -1172,12 +1171,11 @@ func (b *Bridge) publishPlan() {
// Price sensor: standalone value + rich attributes for HA energy dashboard.
b.publishValue("price_ore", curPriceOre)
priceAttrs := map[string]any{
"price_ore": curPriceOre,
"spot_ore": curSpotOre,
"cost_ore": curCostOre,
"confidence": curConfidence,
"reason": curReason,
"ems_mode": curEMSMode,
"price_ore": curPriceOre,
"spot_ore": curSpotOre,
"cost_ore": curCostOre,
"reason": curReason,
"ems_mode": curEMSMode,
}
if d, err := json.Marshal(priceAttrs); err == nil {
b.publish(b.stateTopic("price_json"), d, false)
Expand Down
46 changes: 21 additions & 25 deletions go/internal/ha/plan_payload.go
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Expand Up @@ -20,33 +20,31 @@ const planAttributesBudget = 14 * 1024
// dashboard or automation needs per slot, rounded to one decimal. The full
// slot detail goes to plan_schedule_json.
type planSlot struct {
Start string `json:"start"`
Action string `json:"action"`
BatteryW float64 `json:"battery_w"`
GridW float64 `json:"grid_w"`
SoCPct float64 `json:"soc_pct"`
PriceOre float64 `json:"price_ore"`
Confidence float64 `json:"confidence"`
Start string `json:"start"`
Action string `json:"action"`
BatteryW float64 `json:"battery_w"`
GridW float64 `json:"grid_w"`
SoCPct float64 `json:"soc_pct"`
PriceOre float64 `json:"price_ore"`

@chatgpt-codex-connector chatgpt-codex-connector Bot Sep 25, 2026

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P2 Badge Update the MQTT payload documentation after removing confidence

Removing confidence from both schedule payload structs makes the maintained integration guide incorrect: docs/ha-integration.md lines 49–55 still promises confidence in plan_json and describes plan_schedule_json as containing every field. Home Assistant or raw MQTT consumers following that contract will wait for a field that is no longer emitted, so update the documented payload alongside this wire-format change.

AGENTS.md reference: AGENTS.md:L321-L322

Useful? React with 👍 / 👎.

}

// planScheduleSlot is one entry of plan_schedule_json, the full schedule for
// MQTT consumers. It is not attached to a Home Assistant entity because it
// can exceed the recorder limit.
type planScheduleSlot struct {
Start string `json:"start"`
End string `json:"end"`
Action string `json:"action"`
BatteryW float64 `json:"battery_w"`
GridW float64 `json:"grid_w"`
SoCPct float64 `json:"soc_pct"`
PVW float64 `json:"pv_w,omitempty"`
LoadW float64 `json:"load_w,omitempty"`
PriceOre float64 `json:"price_ore,omitempty"`
SpotOre float64 `json:"spot_ore,omitempty"`
CostOre float64 `json:"cost_ore,omitempty"`
Confidence float64 `json:"confidence,omitempty"`
Reason string `json:"reason,omitempty"`
EMSMode string `json:"ems_mode,omitempty"`
Start string `json:"start"`
End string `json:"end"`
Action string `json:"action"`
BatteryW float64 `json:"battery_w"`
GridW float64 `json:"grid_w"`
SoCPct float64 `json:"soc_pct"`
PVW float64 `json:"pv_w,omitempty"`
LoadW float64 `json:"load_w,omitempty"`
PriceOre float64 `json:"price_ore,omitempty"`
SpotOre float64 `json:"spot_ore,omitempty"`
CostOre float64 `json:"cost_ore,omitempty"`
Reason string `json:"reason,omitempty"`
EMSMode string `json:"ems_mode,omitempty"`
}

// planSnapshot is everything publishPlan publishes about the plan.
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -86,12 +84,12 @@ func buildPlanSnapshot(actions []PlanAction, now time.Time) planSnapshot {
compact = append(compact, planSlot{
Start: start, Action: label,
BatteryW: round1(a.BatteryW), GridW: round1(a.GridW), SoCPct: round1(a.SoCPct),
PriceOre: round1(a.PriceOre), Confidence: round2(a.Confidence),
PriceOre: round1(a.PriceOre),
})
full = append(full, planScheduleSlot{
Start: start, End: end, Action: label,
BatteryW: a.BatteryW, GridW: a.GridW, SoCPct: a.SoCPct, PVW: a.PVW, LoadW: a.LoadW,
PriceOre: a.PriceOre, SpotOre: a.SpotOre, CostOre: a.CostOre, Confidence: a.Confidence,
PriceOre: a.PriceOre, SpotOre: a.SpotOre, CostOre: a.CostOre,
Reason: a.Reason, EMSMode: a.EMSMode,
})
}
Expand All @@ -107,7 +105,6 @@ func buildPlanSnapshot(actions []PlanAction, now time.Time) planSnapshot {
"price_ore": cur.PriceOre,
"spot_ore": cur.SpotOre,
"cost_ore": cur.CostOre,
"confidence": cur.Confidence,
"reason": cur.Reason,
"ems_mode": cur.EMSMode,
}
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -143,4 +140,3 @@ func marshalPlanAttributes(attrs map[string]any, slots []planSlot, budget int) (
}

func round1(v float64) float64 { return math.Round(v*10) / 10 }
func round2(v float64) float64 { return math.Round(v*100) / 100 }
3 changes: 1 addition & 2 deletions go/internal/ha/plan_payload_test.go
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Expand Up @@ -19,7 +19,6 @@ func planFixture(now time.Time, slotMin, slots int) []PlanAction {
PriceOre: 123.456789 + float64(i),
SpotOre: 80.12345,
CostOre: -12.3456,
Confidence: 0.87654321,
Reason: "cheap hour: charge before the evening peak while PV output is still available",
EMSMode: "planner_arbitrage",
PVW: -2000.5,
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -57,7 +56,7 @@ func TestPlanAttributesStayUnderHomeAssistantLimit(t *testing.T) {
t.Fatalf("schedule entries = %d", len(schedule))
}
first, _ := schedule[0].(map[string]any)
for _, key := range []string{"start", "action", "battery_w", "grid_w", "soc_pct", "price_ore", "confidence"} {
for _, key := range []string{"start", "action", "battery_w", "grid_w", "soc_pct", "price_ore"} {
if _, ok := first[key]; !ok {
t.Fatalf("compact slot missing %s: %v", key, first)
}
Expand Down
2 changes: 1 addition & 1 deletion go/internal/mpc/charging_periods_test.go
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Expand Up @@ -71,7 +71,7 @@ func TestNativeChargingPeriodsContinueMeasuredRun(t *testing.T) {
start := time.Now().Add(time.Minute).Truncate(time.Minute)
slots := make([]Slot, 12)
for i := range slots {
slots[i] = Slot{StartMs: start.Add(time.Duration(i) * time.Minute).UnixMilli(), LenMin: 1, Confidence: 1, PriceOre: 100, Limits: PowerLimits{MaxImportW: 1000}}
slots[i] = Slot{StartMs: start.Add(time.Duration(i) * time.Minute).UnixMilli(), LenMin: 1, PriceOre: 100, Limits: PowerLimits{MaxImportW: 1000}}
}
p := Params{Mode: ModeArbitrage, CapacityWh: 10000, SoCMin: .1, SoCMax: .9, InitialSoC: .5, ChargeEfficiency: 1, DischargeEfficiency: 1,
Loadpoint: &LoadpointSpec{ID: "car", CapacityWh: 1000, Levels: 11, SoCMax: .1, TargetSoC: .1, TargetSlotIdx: 11, PluggedIn: true,
Expand Down
32 changes: 16 additions & 16 deletions go/internal/mpc/demand_test.go
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Expand Up @@ -33,11 +33,11 @@ func TestBindDemandChargesExpandsWeekdayHoursAndElapsed(t *testing.T) {
now := time.Date(2026, 9, 9, 10, 7, 0, 0, loc) // Wednesday
start := time.Date(2026, 9, 9, 10, 0, 0, 0, loc)
slots := []Slot{
{StartMs: start.UnixMilli(), ExecutionStartMs: now.UnixMilli(), LenMin: 15, PriceOre: 100, Confidence: 1},
{StartMs: start.Add(15 * time.Minute).UnixMilli(), LenMin: 15, PriceOre: 100, Confidence: 1},
{StartMs: start.Add(30 * time.Minute).UnixMilli(), LenMin: 15, PriceOre: 100, Confidence: 1},
{StartMs: start.Add(45 * time.Minute).UnixMilli(), LenMin: 15, PriceOre: 100, Confidence: 1},
{StartMs: start.Add(time.Hour).UnixMilli(), LenMin: 60, PriceOre: 80, Confidence: 1},
{StartMs: start.UnixMilli(), ExecutionStartMs: now.UnixMilli(), LenMin: 15, PriceOre: 100},
{StartMs: start.Add(15 * time.Minute).UnixMilli(), LenMin: 15, PriceOre: 100},
{StartMs: start.Add(30 * time.Minute).UnixMilli(), LenMin: 15, PriceOre: 100},
{StartMs: start.Add(45 * time.Minute).UnixMilli(), LenMin: 15, PriceOre: 100},
{StartMs: start.Add(time.Hour).UnixMilli(), LenMin: 60, PriceOre: 80},
}
importWh := func(intervals [][2]int64) ([]float64, []int64) {
wh := make([]float64, len(intervals))
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -91,9 +91,9 @@ func TestBindDemandChargesGroupsHoursByLocalDay(t *testing.T) {
}
now := time.Date(2026, 9, 9, 6, 0, 0, 0, loc)
slots := []Slot{
{StartMs: now.UnixMilli(), LenMin: 60, PriceOre: 100, Confidence: 1},
{StartMs: now.Add(time.Hour).UnixMilli(), LenMin: 60, PriceOre: 100, Confidence: 1},
{StartMs: time.Date(2026, 9, 10, 6, 0, 0, 0, loc).UnixMilli(), LenMin: 60, PriceOre: 100, Confidence: 1},
{StartMs: now.UnixMilli(), LenMin: 60, PriceOre: 100},
{StartMs: now.Add(time.Hour).UnixMilli(), LenMin: 60, PriceOre: 100},
{StartMs: time.Date(2026, 9, 10, 6, 0, 0, 0, loc).UnixMilli(), LenMin: 60, PriceOre: 100},
}
got := bindDemandCharges(slots, 7000, 3, 0, 0, loc, now, nil)
if len(got) != 1 || len(got[0].Hours) < 3 {
Expand All @@ -118,9 +118,9 @@ func TestEllevioNightWeightIncludesWeekendsAndHalvesNightHours(t *testing.T) {
}
now := time.Date(2026, 9, 5, 10, 0, 0, 0, loc) // Saturday
slots := []Slot{
{StartMs: now.UnixMilli(), LenMin: 60, PriceOre: 100, Confidence: 1},
{StartMs: time.Date(2026, 9, 5, 22, 0, 0, 0, loc).UnixMilli(), LenMin: 60, PriceOre: 80, Confidence: 1},
{StartMs: time.Date(2026, 9, 5, 23, 0, 0, 0, loc).UnixMilli(), LenMin: 60, PriceOre: 80, Confidence: 1},
{StartMs: now.UnixMilli(), LenMin: 60, PriceOre: 100},
{StartMs: time.Date(2026, 9, 5, 22, 0, 0, 0, loc).UnixMilli(), LenMin: 60, PriceOre: 80},
{StartMs: time.Date(2026, 9, 5, 23, 0, 0, 0, loc).UnixMilli(), LenMin: 60, PriceOre: 80},
}
without := bindDemandCharges(slots, 7000, 3, 0, 0, loc, now, nil)
if len(without) != 0 {
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -161,9 +161,9 @@ func TestBindDemandChargesSkipsUnalignedCurrentHour(t *testing.T) {
now := time.Date(2026, 9, 9, 10, 17, 0, 0, loc)
start := time.Date(2026, 9, 9, 10, 15, 0, 0, loc)
slots := []Slot{
{StartMs: start.UnixMilli(), ExecutionStartMs: now.UnixMilli(), LenMin: 15, Confidence: 1},
{StartMs: start.Add(15 * time.Minute).UnixMilli(), LenMin: 45, Confidence: 1},
{StartMs: start.Add(time.Hour).UnixMilli(), LenMin: 60, Confidence: 1},
{StartMs: start.UnixMilli(), ExecutionStartMs: now.UnixMilli(), LenMin: 15},
{StartMs: start.Add(15 * time.Minute).UnixMilli(), LenMin: 45},
{StartMs: start.Add(time.Hour).UnixMilli(), LenMin: 60},
}
got := bindDemandCharges(slots, 7000, 1, 0, 0, loc, now, nil)
if len(got) != 1 || len(got[0].Hours) == 0 {
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -203,9 +203,9 @@ func TestNativeDemandChargesOnWeekdayHour(t *testing.T) {
defer o.Close()
start := time.Date(2026, 9, 9, 10, 0, 0, 0, time.UTC)
slots := []Slot{
{StartMs: start.UnixMilli(), LenMin: 60, PriceOre: 100, SpotOre: 50, Confidence: 1, LoadW: 500,
{StartMs: start.UnixMilli(), LenMin: 60, PriceOre: 100, SpotOre: 50, LoadW: 500,
Limits: PowerLimits{MaxImportW: 8000, MaxExportW: 8000}},
{StartMs: start.Add(time.Hour).UnixMilli(), LenMin: 60, PriceOre: 300, SpotOre: 240, Confidence: 1, LoadW: 500,
{StartMs: start.Add(time.Hour).UnixMilli(), LenMin: 60, PriceOre: 300, SpotOre: 240, LoadW: 500,
Limits: PowerLimits{MaxImportW: 8000, MaxExportW: 8000}},
}
p := Params{
Expand Down
16 changes: 5 additions & 11 deletions go/internal/mpc/diagnose.go
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Expand Up @@ -19,11 +19,10 @@ type DiagnosticSlot struct {
LenMin int `json:"len_min"`

// Inputs
PriceOre float64 `json:"price_ore"` // consumer total (spot + tariff + VAT)
SpotOre float64 `json:"spot_ore"` // raw spot — used for export revenue
Confidence float64 `json:"confidence"` // 1.0 = day-ahead, 0.6 = forecast
PVW float64 `json:"pv_w"` // site-signed (≤ 0 when producing)
LoadW float64 `json:"load_w"`
PriceOre float64 `json:"price_ore"` // consumer total (spot + tariff + VAT)
SpotOre float64 `json:"spot_ore"` // raw spot — used for export revenue
PVW float64 `json:"pv_w"` // site-signed (≤ 0 when producing)
LoadW float64 `json:"load_w"`

// Source and local availability time for the rows consulted to build this
// slot. Synthetic price rows use their creation time. WeatherRow is not full
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -130,9 +129,7 @@ type Diagnostic struct {
// The shape matches what the UI renders in the planner inspector so
// operators can audit each slot: "what did the DP see, what did it
// decide, and why". The per-slot `Reason` string already explains the
// decision class; the adjacent inputs show whether the decision was
// grounded in a real day-ahead price (`confidence == 1.0`) or a
// forecasted one (`confidence == 0.6`).
// decision class; the adjacent inputs show what it was based on.
func (s *Service) Diagnose() *Diagnostic {
if s == nil {
return nil
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -178,7 +175,6 @@ func buildDiagnostic(plan *Plan, slots []Slot, p Params, zone string,
ExecutionStartMs: slot.ExecutionStartMs,
PriceOre: slot.PriceOre,
SpotOre: slot.SpotOre,
Confidence: slot.Confidence,
PVW: slot.PVW,
LoadW: slot.LoadW,
PriceInputSource: slot.PriceInputSource,
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -391,7 +387,6 @@ func planFromDiagnostic(d *Diagnostic) (*Plan, []Slot, Params, time.Time, bool)
SpotOre: ds.SpotOre,
PVW: ds.PVW,
LoadW: ds.LoadW,
Confidence: ds.Confidence,
InputProvenanceSchema: d.InputProvenanceSchema,
PriceInputSource: ds.PriceInputSource,
PriceInputAvailableAtMs: ds.PriceInputAvailableAtMs,
Expand All @@ -410,7 +405,6 @@ func planFromDiagnostic(d *Diagnostic) (*Plan, []Slot, Params, time.Time, bool)
GridW: ds.GridW,
SoC: ds.SoC,
CostOre: ds.CostOre,
Confidence: ds.Confidence,
Reason: ds.Reason,
EMSMode: ds.EMSMode,
PVLimitW: ds.PVLimitW,
Expand Down
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