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Uprate the Scottish Carer Supplement by September CPI with 5p rounding - #2105

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Uprate the Scottish Carer Supplement by September CPI with 5p rounding#2105
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fix-1957-scottish-carer-supplement-uprating

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@MaxGhenis MaxGhenis commented Oct 3, 2026 •
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Fixes #1957

What

gov.social_security_scotland.carer_support_payment.supplement is the Scottish Carer Supplement (SSI 2023/302 reg. 16(1A)). It had no uprating metadata, so main holds it at £11.70 a week (£608.40 a year) from 2027-28 onward.

This PR uprates it the way main has uprated Scottish Child Payment and the five Pension Age Winter Heating Payment rates since #2575. Each April it rises by the previous September's CPI (gov.benefit_uprating_cpi, re-based on September CPI by #2557). The rise is applied to the previous rounded rate, and the result is rounded to the nearest 5p. The uprating block is the same one scottish_child_payment/amount.yaml uses: at_defined_interval with April enactment, and rounding: {type: nearest, interval: 0.05}.

The Carer Support Payment component (rate.yaml, reg. 16(1)) already rose with gov.benefit_uprating_cpi, but unrounded. It gets the same block:

  • the same s. 86A report and 5p rule govern it;
  • it keeps the two reg. 16 components consistent;
  • it leaves no uprated Scottish amount in the model unrounded.

Compounding the rounded rates raises its projections by 2p to 7p a week over 2027-28 to 2030-31 (table below), and by up to 11p by 2039-40.

Nothing changes for 2026-27 or earlier: the supplement is £0 before 15 March 2026 and £11.70 in 2026-27, and the component is £86.45.

Other edits:

  • References. Both files cite Social Security (Scotland) Act 2018 ss. 86A-86B and the 2026-27 s. 86A report: section 2.1 for 5p rounding, section 3 for September CPI, and table 5 for the 2026-27 rates. supplement.yaml drops a dead socialsecurity.gov.scot link.
  • Changelog. changelog.d/1957.fixed.md covers both rates and no longer starts with a list marker, which towncrier would render as "- - ".

Law and uprating policy

Re-read on legislation.gov.uk and gov.scot on 2026-10-25.

  • SSI 2026/170 reg. 12(3). SSI 2026/170 reg. 12(3) substitutes three amounts in SSI 2023/302 reg. 16:

    • (a) £83.30 becomes £86.45;
    • (b) £11.29 becomes £11.70;
    • (c) £10.00 becomes £10.40, the Carer Additional Person Payment, which the model does not include.

    Each is the old amount × 1.038, rounded to the nearest 5p. For the supplement, 11.29 × 1.038 = 11.719, which rounds to 11.70.

  • Duty to uprate, s. 86B. Social Security (Scotland) Act 2018 s. 86B requires the Scottish Ministers to "bring forward legislation to replace any relevant figure ... which is, in their opinion, materially below its inflation-adjusted level with a figure of at least that level (subject to any rounding they think appropriate)".

    • s. 86A(4) defines that level as f × (1 + i/100). Here i is the change the Ministers consider reflects "the general level of relevant prices".
    • Carer's assistance (s. 28) is in Chapter 2 of Part 2, so reg. 16(1) and (1A) are relevant figures (s. 86A(3)(a)(i)).

  • September CPI and 5p are the Ministers' policy. The source is Social Security Assistance in Scotland: up-rating for inflation in 2026-27.

    • Section 2.1: the Scottish Government recommended that "the 12 months to September rate of Consumer Prices Index (CPI) is used for up-rating devolved social security assistance, with the assistance payment rounded to the nearest five pence".
    • Section 3.1 calls September CPI the Scottish Government's "current policy".
    • Table 5 lists the Carer Support Payment component at £86.45 and the Scottish Carer Supplement component at £11.70, with "rounding to the nearest 5p".

    As Project Scottish Child Payment and PAWHP by September CPI #2575 notes, September CPI is ministerial practice, not an index the Act prescribes.

  • Alternatives considered:

    • No uprating (main's behaviour) is contrary to s. 86B.
    • The s. 81 Carer's Allowance Supplement formula does not govern reg. 16(1A): s. 81 is in Part 3 and sets the supplement for Carer's Allowance recipients.
    • Unrounded uprating (this PR's earlier heads) departs from the 5p practice that main now models for every other Scottish rate.
    • The Carer's Allowance Supplement weekly equivalent. Section 7.3 of the report notes that the £304.65 bi-annual Carer's Allowance Supplement "is equivalent to a weekly rate of £11.72, or £11.70 when rounded to the nearest 5p". Projecting that route would give 304.65 × 1.035 = 315.31 → £315.30, then ÷ 26 = 12.127 → £12.15 for 2027-28, 5p above this PR. This PR instead follows reg. 16(1A) and table 5, which uprate the supplement as its own figure (£11.29 → £11.70).

Values

The April rises come from gov.economic_assumptions.yoy_growth.september_cpi_uprating, the previous September's CPI rounded to 0.1pp:

  • April 2027: 3.5%, ONS September 2026 (statutory_uprating_inputs/cpi_september.yaml);
  • April 2028: 2.1%, the OBR March 2026 EFO forecast for September 2027;
  • April 2029 and April 2030: 2.0% each, calendar-year CPI plus the forecast gap, as create_statutory_uprating_inputs.py computes them.

Hand computations, each from the previous rounded rate:

Fiscal year Rise Supplement, main Supplement, branch Annual (× 52) CSP component, main (unrounded) CSP component, branch
2026-27 3.8% (enacted) £11.70 £11.70 £608.40 £86.45 £86.45
2027-28 3.5% £11.70 11.70 × 1.035 = 12.1095 → £12.10 £629.20 £89.48 86.45 × 1.035 = 89.47575 → £89.50
2028-29 2.1% £11.70 12.10 × 1.021 = 12.3541 → £12.35 £642.20 £91.35 89.50 × 1.021 = 91.3795 → £91.40
2029-30 2.0% £11.70 12.35 × 1.02 = 12.597 → £12.60 £655.20 £93.18 91.40 × 1.02 = 93.228 → £93.25
2030-31 2.0% £11.70 12.60 × 1.02 = 12.852 → £12.85 £668.20 £95.05 93.25 × 1.02 = 95.115 → £95.10

Main builds its economic assumption indices to 2039 (create_economic_assumption_indices.py), so both rates, like every other rate on the index, stop rising after 2039-40.

Invariants and tests

policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/gov/social_security_scotland/scottish_carer_supplement.yaml, four cases, each for a 35-year-old caring 40 hours a week:

Case Supplement CSP component
2026, Scotland £608.40 86.45 × 52
2027, Scotland 12.10 × 52 = £629.20 89.50 × 52
2028, Scotland 12.35 × 52 = £642.20 91.40 × 52
2027, England £0 £0

policyengine_uk/tests/test_scottish_carer_supplement_uprating.py:

  1. Anchors. The enacted 2026 rates are kept, and April 2027 is £12.10 and £89.50.
  2. Compounding, 2027-2039. Each year's rate equals the previous rounded rate × (1 + that April's September CPI rise), rounded half-up to 5p. The reference is computed in Decimal from £11.70 and £86.45, independently of the index.
  3. Never falls. Neither rate falls, because the rise is never negative.
  4. Metamorphic (Hypothesis, derandomized). Setting the previous September's CPI to a published rate g in [0, 12%] through a Scenario moves that April's rates to the previous rates × (1 + g), rounded to 5p, and leaves the year before unchanged.

Main's test_september_cpi_uprating.py::test_every_parameter_on_the_index_rises_by_september_cpi_after_its_last_value also covers both parameters through their rounding config.

Mutations, each killed:

  • Drop the rounding block (unrounded uprating): 2 YAML cases and 3 pytest tests fail.
  • Freeze the supplement (main's behaviour): 2 YAML cases and 3 pytest tests fail.
  • Round the cumulative rise instead of compounding rounded rates (drop at_defined_interval): both compounding tests fail. For example, the CSP component would be £91.35 in 2028-29 rather than £91.40.

Run locally at 09289e485, one file at a time under the host's disk hold. After merging main (54d1ea466, which touches no uprating or Scottish code), the Scottish YAML directory (96) and the new pytest file (7) passed again.

  • YAML. 287 passed:
    • tests/policy/baseline/gov/social_security_scotland;
    • finance/benefit/personal/carer_support_payment.yaml, couple_carer_award.yaml, carer_premium.yaml and uc_unearned_benefits.yaml;
    • pension_credit_carer_income.yaml, benefit_cap_by_scheme.yaml and benefit_cap_specified_benefits.yaml;
    • integration/carer_support_payment_age_and_earnings.yaml and carer_and_dla_minimum_ages.yaml.
  • Python. All pass:
    • test_scottish_carer_supplement_uprating.py: 7;
    • test_scottish_benefit_uprating.py: 26;
    • test_september_cpi_uprating.py: 17;
    • test_carer_support_payment.py: 10;
    • test_pension_credit_carer_income_properties.py: 3;
    • test_carer_overlapping_benefits_properties.py: 4.
  • Lint. ruff format --check . (2,003 files), ruff check and git diff --check are clean.

Only two variables read these parameters: carer_support_payment_pre_couple_limit (csp.rate * WEEKS_IN_YEAR) and scottish_carer_supplement (csp.supplement * WEEKS_IN_YEAR).

Aggregate impact

From the Aggregate impact CI report (run). It compares base 335bb01e32 (main) against head f0f8a7290d (this PR at 54d1ea466 merged into that main). Both sides ran on enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5 (policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1), with a full microsimulation run for each year on each side:

Checks: 0 broken by this change, 1 failing on both sides, 0 fixed. Moves flagged for review: 0

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland)¹ 0 0 +£1.5m +£2.4m +£3.4m +£4.3m +£5.3m
Carer Support Payment (Scotland) 0 0 +£90,902 +£0.2m +£0.3m +£0.2m +£0.2m
Council Tax Reduction 0 0 -£276 -£514 -£773 -£623 -£610
Income tax 0 0 +£0.1m +£0.2m +£0.3m +£0.4m +£0.5m
Government spending 0 † 0 † +£1.6m † +£2.6m † +£3.6m † +£4.5m † +£5.5m †
Government balance, each receipt once 0 † 0 † -£1.5m † -£2.4m † -£3.4m † -£4.2m † -£5.0m †
Household net income 0 † 0 † +£1.5m † +£2.4m † +£3.4m † +£4.2m † +£5.0m †
People in absolute poverty, before housing costs 0 0 -2.2k 0 0 0 0
People in absolute poverty, after housing costs 0 0 0 0 0 -50 0
People in relative poverty, after housing costs 0 0 0 0 0 0 -50

¹ The report's label for the scottish_carer_supplement variable (policyengine_uk/data/fiscal_partition.yaml).
† As the report notes, these totals are rebuilt without a suppressed small-cell figure (Disabled Students' Allowance).

Reading it:

  • Supplement. The supplement accounts for most of the change. Main holds it at £11.70, while this PR raises it to £12.10 in 2027-28 and on from there.
  • Carer Support Payment. Its line moves only by the 5p rounding of the component: 2p to 7p a week, a few hundred thousand pounds a year.
  • Council Tax Reduction. Scottish CTR counts carer_support_payment_pre_overlap as income but not the supplement (council_tax_reduction_applicable_income.py), so the slightly higher component trims CTR by a few hundred pounds.
  • Income tax rises because both payments are taxable.

Earlier versions of this description quoted local Enhanced FRS runs made with the old index and unrounded rates. Those figures are withdrawn.

Axiom

axiom: uk:regulations/ssi/2023/302/16#scottish_carer_supplement_weekly_rate encoded-correct | TheAxiomFoundation/rulespec-uk#431 queued

Review

GPT-6.1 Sol reviewed this head, 54d1ea466, and returned VERDICT: APPROVE with no blocking findings (Subfleet run 20261025-130338-pr2105-r5). It confirmed:

  • the law and method;
  • core's cadence mechanics: the first projected value is at 2027-04-01 and each year compounds the rounded rate;
  • the hand computations for 2027-2030;
  • that the 2027 and 2028 YAML cases fail on main;
  • the Axiom line.

Its non-blocking notes:

  • Tie risk. Core rounds with Python's half-even round(), while the test uses Decimal half-up. No exact tie arises in current data, and Project Scottish Child Payment and PAWHP by September CPI #2575's tests share the risk.
  • Carer's Allowance Supplement route. The weekly-equivalent route is now listed under alternatives.
  • Impact report. It is now quoted above.

Earlier heads were approved under the old method: GPT-6.1 Sol at 2bdb860a8, 55173abc8 and f01fbad05, and Opus at b61e68d36.

Out of scope: the Carer Additional Person Payment (reg. 16(1B), £10.40) is not modelled.

Reproducer: policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/gov/social_security_scotland/scottish_carer_supplement.yaml::Scottish Carer Supplement rises by September CPI in 2027

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

@MaxGhenis @claude
Uprate the Scottish Carer Supplement with the benefit uprating index
2bdb860 
The supplement had no uprating metadata, so the model held it at 11.70 a
week from 2027 while the Carer Support Payment component kept rising.

Social Security (Scotland) Act 2018 s.86B requires Scottish Ministers to
bring forward legislation raising each relevant figure, which includes
both components (carer's assistance is s.28, in Part 2 Chapter 2), to at
least its s.86A inflation-adjusted level. Their measure is the 12 months
to September CPI, rounded to the nearest 5p (s.86A report for 2026-27,
sections 1.6, 2.1, 3.1 and 6.1). SSI 2026/170 reg 12(3) raised both
components by the 3.8% September 2025 rate: 83.30 to 86.45 and 11.29 to
11.70.

The supplement now uprates with gov.benefit_uprating_cpi, as the Carer
Support Payment component and Carer's Allowance already do. That index
lags OBR calendar-year CPI by a year, so it approximates rather than
reproduces September CPI. As for every other uprated parameter, the model
does not round projected rates to 5p: 2027-28 is 11.969 a week.

Also cite s.86B and the s.86A report on rate.yaml, and replace the
supplement's dead socialsecurity.gov.scot news link with the report's
table of 2026-27 rates.

Fixes #1957

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
This was referenced Oct 3, 2026
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MaxGhenis and others added 3 commits October 3, 2026 17:04
@MaxGhenis @claude
Merge origin/main into fix-1957-scottish-carer-supplement-uprating
55173ab 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis @claude
Merge origin/main into fix-1957-scottish-carer-supplement-uprating
b61e68d 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis @claude
Merge origin/main into fix-1957-scottish-carer-supplement-uprating
f01fbad 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis

MaxGhenis commented Oct 22, 2026

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UK hub takeover for the Budget fix sprint (Max, 21 Oct). The owner session local_295319c4 has been idle since mid-October. The hub woke it on 21 Oct at 23:58Z, and it did not start. To land this before the Budget model locks (the first pe-uk release cut by about 12:00Z Thu 22 Oct), the hub has taken it over as build 20261021-211255-sprint-2105, which merges main, re-tests, pushes as a fast-forward and marks it ready. The hub then reviews it and lands it through the merge queue.

If the owner session wakes, please don't push to this branch; comment here instead, so there's only one writer.

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

@MaxGhenis

MaxGhenis commented Oct 22, 2026

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UK hub: takeover withdrawn. The owner session has been woken (22 Oct 01:25Z) and is finishing this PR itself, so the hub's build is cancelled. One writer: the owner session.

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

@MaxGhenis @claude
Merge origin/main into fix-1957-scottish-carer-supplement-uprating
c3b8e32 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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Aggregate impact on certified data: pass

Base 335bb01e32 against head f0f8a7290d, both on enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5 (policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1, sha256 056e80fd8e91), fiscal years 2025-26 to 2031-32. Each year is a full microsimulation run on each side.

Checks: 0 broken by this change, 1 failing on both sides, 0 fixed. Moves flagged for review: 0 (thresholds in report_spec.yaml; a flag does not fail the job).

Workflow run and full report

Notes

  • In the years a figure from fewer than 10 records is suppressed (spending.disabled_students_allowance), every total containing it, and the decile incomes, are rebuilt from their other components, so no published total includes it. Those totals are marked †. A change is withheld where the two sides leave out different figures and can't be lined up.

Moves flagged for review

None.

Receipts by tax head

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Income tax 0 0 +£0.1m +£0.2m +£0.3m +£0.4m +£0.5m

Spending by benefit and service

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Council Tax Reduction 0 0 -£276 -£514 -£773 -£623 -£610
Carer Support Payment (Scotland) 0 0 +£90,902 +£0.2m +£0.3m +£0.2m +£0.2m
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland) 0 0 +£1.5m +£2.4m +£3.4m +£4.3m +£5.3m
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed

Caseloads

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed

Government balance, each component counted once

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Government receipts, each component once 0 0 +£0.1m +£0.2m +£0.3m +£0.4m +£0.5m
Government spending 0 † 0 † +£1.6m † +£2.6m † +£3.6m † +£4.5m † +£5.5m †
Government balance, each receipt once 0 † 0 † -£1.5m † -£2.4m † -£3.4m † -£4.2m † -£5.0m †

Model totals

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
gov_tax 0 0 +£0.1m +£0.2m +£0.3m +£0.4m +£0.5m
household_tax 0 0 +£0.1m +£0.2m +£0.3m +£0.4m +£0.5m
pre_budget_change_household_tax 0 0 +£0.1m +£0.2m +£0.3m +£0.4m +£0.5m
gov_spending 0 † 0 † +£1.6m † +£2.6m † +£3.6m † +£4.5m † +£5.5m †
household_benefits 0 † 0 † +£1.6m † +£2.6m † +£3.6m † +£4.5m † +£5.5m †
gov_balance 0 † 0 † -£1.5m † -£2.4m † -£3.4m † -£4.2m † -£5.0m †

Household income totals

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Household net income 0 † 0 † +£1.5m † +£2.4m † +£3.4m † +£4.2m † +£5.0m †
Household net income (HBAI definition) 0 0 +£1.5m +£2.4m +£3.4m +£4.2m +£5.0m

Poverty rates

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone 0 0 -0.00pp 0 0 0 0
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children 0 0 -0.01pp 0 0 0 0
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 0 0 -0.00pp 0 0 0 0
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone 0 0 0 0 0 -0.00pp 0
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children 0 0 0 0 0 -0.00pp 0
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 0 0 0 0 0 -0.00pp 0
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone 0 0 0 0 0 0 -0.00pp
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children 0 0 0 0 0 0 -0.00pp
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 0 0 0 0 0 0 -0.00pp

People in poverty

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone 0 0 -2.2k 0 0 0 0
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children 0 0 -1.1k 0 0 0 0
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 0 0 -1.1k 0 0 0 0
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone 0 0 0 0 0 -50 0
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children 0 0 0 0 0 -33 0
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 0 0 0 0 0 -17 0
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone 0 0 0 0 0 0 -50
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children 0 0 0 0 0 0 -34
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 0 0 0 0 0 0 -17

Inequality

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Gini coefficient, equivalised HBAI income before housing costs 0 0 -0.0000 -0.0000 -0.0000 -0.0000 -0.0000

Mean household net income in each side's own deciles

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household 0 † 0 † +£0.11 † +£0.20 † +£0.24 † +£0.30 † +£0.36 †
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household 0 † 0 † +£0.08 † +£0.09 † +£0.22 † +£0.27 † -£0.06 †
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household 0 † 0 † +£0.10 † +£0.15 † -£1.54 † +£0.17 † +£0.39 †
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household 0 † 0 † +£0.04 † +£0.07 † +£1.15 † +£0.14 † +£0.16 †
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household 0 † 0 † +£0.13 † +£0.22 † +£0.31 † +£0.38 † +£0.46 †
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household 0 † 0 † +£0.00 † +£0.01 † +£0.01 † +£0.01 † +£0.02 †
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household 0 † 0 † 0 † +£0.00 † +£0.00 † +£0.01 † 0 †
Decile 9: mean household_net_income per household 0 † 0 † +£0.00 † +£0.01 † +£0.01 † +£0.01 † +£0.01 †

Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance)

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp 0 0 +£0 0 +£0 -£0 -£0
Raise higher rate by 1pp 0 0 +£0 -£0 0 -£0 -£0
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year 0 0 -£191 -£1 -£26 -£41,233 -£2
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child 0 0 -£9 +£0 +£0 -£10 +£9
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20% 0 0 +£4 +£7 +£0 -£1 -£13
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10% 0 0 +£0 -£0 +£3 -£0 -£3
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp 0 0 +£11 -£4 +£44 +£4 -£6
Raise additional rate by 3pp 0 0 +£0 -£0 0 suppressed suppressed
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10% 0 0 +£17 -£4 +£20 +£13 -£13
Raise the State Pension by 10% 0 0 -£44 -£45 -£0 +£1 +£44

Standard reforms: change in each reform's target

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp: change in income_tax 0 0 -£0 0 +£0 0 0
Raise higher rate by 1pp: change in income_tax 0 0 -£0 +£0 +£0 -£0 -£0
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year: change in income_tax 0 0 -£190 -£4 -£32 -£41,239 +£0
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax 0 0 0 0 +£0 suppressed suppressed

Household net income by decile

Mean change in household net income per household, and as a share of the decile's base income; households stay in the base run's deciles.

Base decile 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Decile 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Decile 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Decile 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Decile 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Decile 5 0 0 fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change
Decile 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Decile 7 0 0 fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change
Decile 8 0 0 0 fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change 0
Decile 9 0 0 fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change
Decile 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
all 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Year People gaining over £1 People losing over £1
2025-26 0.0% 0.0%
2026-27 0.0% 0.0%
2027-28 0.3% 0.0%
2028-29 0.3% 0.0%
2029-30 0.3% 0.0%
2030-31 0.3% 0.0%
2031-32 0.3% 0.0%

No change in any year: population.

Checks failing on both base and head (1)
  • VAT excluding private school fees is never negative (sign:vat): 2025-26: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-53,889,156 in total; 2026-27: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-55,420,387 in total; 2027-28: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-56,618,038 in total
Counted-once check

Each of 88 components was raised by £1 per unit in 2026-27, and every head of its totals was read household by household: its own head must rise by exactly £1, no other tax head may move, no other benefit may rise, and the model's own total must move by what its heads moved. A head that breaks a rule is measured again twice: with every other head held at its baseline value, and with every other head held at its value after the first £1 while the component rises again. It fails where either still shows the response. 0 failed; 0 were skipped.

  • widowed_parents_allowance: pension_credit responds only through other heads in fewer than 10 households (other heads that moved there: carers_allowance; gov_spending; not a failure)
  • widowed_parents_allowance: pension_credit responds only through other heads in fewer than 10 households (other heads that moved there: carers_allowance; household_benefits; not a failure)
Provenance
Side Commit Runtime Environment hash Partition hash Time
base main 335bb01e32 uk 2.161.1 (files b49bcb84a02f), core 3.33.2, py 3.13.17 aarch64 fb074331f2f4 9a54a111ed04 1868.97s
head #2105 merged into main f0f8a7290d uk 2.161.1 (files 907109931397), core 3.33.2, py 3.13.17 aarch64 fb074331f2f4 9a54a111ed04 1860.75s

Dataset: hf://policyengine/policyengine-uk-data-private/enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5@2526edbbb687a3b54dbb11272e5389e4b62d2ac2, sha256 056e80fd8e9151d78f432a25cde863340baee81304c6216a37fb575ce8563784 (verified on both sides), policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1.

Receipts by tax head: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Income tax £298.70bn £318.31bn £335.60bn £350.52bn £365.79bn £383.53bn £401.03bn
National Insurance (employee and self-employed) £52.37bn £54.71bn £56.48bn £58.15bn £60.22bn £62.11bn £64.44bn
National Insurance (employer) £150.59bn £156.99bn £161.74bn £166.13bn £173.24bn £178.59bn £185.29bn
Employer NI change borne by capital £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Employer NI change borne by consumers £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Capital gains tax £12.61bn £13.05bn £13.53bn £14.02bn £14.52bn £15.05bn £15.58bn
Student loan repayments £7.79bn £8.09bn £8.31bn £8.51bn £8.72bn £8.97bn £9.28bn
VAT excluding private school fees £249.37bn £255.28bn £261.81bn £267.87bn £274.12bn £280.56bn £286.81bn
Change in VAT from its baseline £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
VAT on private school fees £1.95bn £2.00bn £2.05bn £2.10bn £2.21bn £2.21bn £2.31bn
Change in private school VAT from its baseline £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Fuel duties £24.53bn £24.64bn £26.64bn £26.69bn £26.42bn £25.76bn £26.35bn
Alcohol duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Tobacco duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Vehicle excise duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Betting and gaming duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
TV licence fee £4.26bn £4.41bn £4.42bn £4.44bn £4.45bn £4.47bn £4.48bn
Council tax £49.21bn £51.88bn £54.97bn £58.29bn £61.55bn £64.92bn £68.49bn
High value council tax surcharge £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.48bn £0.49bn £0.50bn £0.51bn
Northern Ireland domestic rates £0.55bn £0.58bn £0.60bn £0.63bn £0.66bn £0.69bn £0.72bn
Business rates £34.68bn £38.04bn £38.88bn £39.76bn £43.07bn £43.13bn £44.57bn
Stamp duty land tax on the household's own purchases £6.90bn £7.39bn £7.81bn £8.21bn £8.62bn £9.02bn £9.42bn
Stamp duty land tax paid by companies £4.81bn £5.98bn £6.73bn £7.46bn £8.21bn £8.87bn £9.16bn
Land transaction tax (Wales) £0.07bn £0.08bn £0.09bn £0.09bn £0.10bn £0.10bn £0.11bn
Land and buildings transaction tax (Scotland) £0.31bn £0.32bn £0.34bn £0.35bn £0.37bn £0.38bn £0.40bn
Unspecified tax change borne by capital £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Unspecified tax change borne by consumers £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Wealth tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Wealth tax excluding the main residence £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Land value tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Carbon tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Spending by benefit and service: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
State Pension £121.64bn £126.07bn £127.08bn £128.87bn £132.52bn £136.31bn £140.08bn
Pension Credit £6.66bn £7.04bn £7.32bn £7.46bn £7.60bn £7.77bn £7.94bn
Winter Fuel Payment £1.86bn £1.86bn £1.80bn £1.78bn £1.79bn £1.79bn £1.80bn
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland) £0.19bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.21bn £0.21bn £0.22bn £0.22bn
Universal Credit £75.21bn £80.38bn £82.93bn £84.23bn £85.58bn £86.87bn £87.97bn
Housing Benefit £8.55bn £8.89bn £9.17bn £9.31bn £9.58bn £9.84bn £10.10bn
Council Tax Reduction £1.98bn £2.02bn £2.07bn £2.11bn £2.16bn £2.21bn £2.25bn
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related) £0.79bn £0.81bn £0.83bn £0.85bn £0.86bn £0.89bn £0.90bn
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based) £5.20bn £5.34bn £5.46bn £5.59bn £5.72bn £5.85bn £5.99bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based) £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based) £0.29bn £0.30bn £0.30bn £0.31bn £0.32bn £0.32bn £0.33bn
Income Support £0.12bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Working Tax Credit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Child Tax Credit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Incapacity Benefit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Personal Independence Payment £26.94bn £28.06bn £29.13bn £29.83bn £30.54bn £31.26bn £31.96bn
Disability Living Allowance £7.49bn £7.80bn £8.10bn £8.29bn £8.49bn £8.69bn £8.88bn
Attendance Allowance £8.68bn £9.04bn £9.38bn £9.61bn £9.83bn £10.07bn £10.29bn
Carer's Allowance £4.48bn £4.67bn £4.84bn £4.96bn £5.08bn £5.19bn £5.31bn
Carer Support Payment (Scotland) £0.31bn £0.32bn £0.33bn £0.34bn £0.35bn £0.36bn £0.37bn
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland) £0.00bn £0.04bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn
Severe Disablement Allowance £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit £0.50bn £0.52bn £0.53bn £0.54bn £0.55bn £0.57bn £0.58bn
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme £0.61bn £0.62bn £0.64bn £0.65bn £0.67bn £0.68bn £0.70bn
War Widow's or Widower's Pension £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Child Benefit £16.16bn £16.83bn £17.43bn £17.85bn £18.26bn £18.69bn £19.10bn
Scottish Child Payment £0.49bn £0.52bn £0.54bn £0.55bn £0.56bn £0.57bn £0.56bn
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual) £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Healthy Start vouchers £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn
Maternity Allowance £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Statutory Maternity Pay £3.30bn £3.39bn £3.47bn £3.55bn £3.63bn £3.72bn £3.80bn
Statutory Paternity Pay £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Statutory Sick Pay £1.12bn £1.15bn £1.18bn £1.21bn £1.24bn £1.27bn £1.29bn
Sure Start Maternity Grant £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn
Bereavement Support Payment £0.67bn £0.69bn £0.70bn £0.72bn £0.73bn £0.75bn £0.77bn
Widowed Parent's Allowance £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Tax-Free Childcare £0.55bn £0.56bn £0.57bn £0.58bn £0.59bn £0.61bn £0.59bn
Extended childcare entitlement £2.99bn £3.50bn £3.60bn £3.67bn £3.77bn £3.85bn £3.94bn
Universal childcare entitlement £2.05bn £2.23bn £2.28bn £2.34bn £2.40bn £2.47bn £2.52bn
Targeted childcare entitlement £0.50bn £0.51bn £0.52bn £0.53bn £0.54bn £0.56bn £0.52bn
Childcare Offer for Wales £0.26bn £0.28bn £0.28bn £0.29bn £0.30bn £0.30bn £0.31bn
Care to Learn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Childcare Grant £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Parents' Learning Allowance £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn
Adult Dependants' Grant £0.06bn £0.06bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn
Travel Grant £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
NHS spending £203.83bn £204.54bn £205.13bn £205.79bn £206.49bn £207.23bn £207.73bn
State education spending £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn
Transport subsidy spending £25.05bn £25.13bn £25.21bn £25.29bn £25.37bn £25.46bn £25.53bn
Cost-of-living support payment £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Energy Bills Rebate £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Basic income £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Disability basic income £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Other public spending budget change £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Caseloads: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
State Pension 11,261k 11,158k 10,849k 10,746k 10,783k 10,822k 10,848k
Pension Credit 1,485k 1,483k 1,480k 1,461k 1,462k 1,464k 1,460k
Winter Fuel Payment 7,842k 7,793k 7,494k 7,407k 7,432k 7,459k 7,477k
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland) 803k 803k 803k 800k 803k 806k 808k
Universal Credit 6,334k 6,341k 6,366k 6,347k 6,345k 6,333k 6,298k
Housing Benefit 1,249k 1,247k 1,250k 1,234k 1,238k 1,240k 1,239k
Council Tax Reduction 3,175k 3,198k 3,209k 3,229k 3,244k 3,257k 3,264k
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related) 71k 71k 71k 71k 71k 72k 72k
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based) 719k 721k 723k 726k 728k 731k 732k
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based) 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based) 67k 67k 67k 68k 68k 68k 68k
Income Support 25k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Working Tax Credit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Child Tax Credit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Incapacity Benefit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Personal Independence Payment 3,566k 3,579k 3,589k 3,601k 3,613k 3,626k 3,635k
Disability Living Allowance 1,291k 1,295k 1,299k 1,303k 1,308k 1,312k 1,316k
Attendance Allowance 1,694k 1,700k 1,705k 1,711k 1,716k 1,723k 1,727k
Carer's Allowance 1,034k 1,038k 1,041k 1,044k 1,048k 1,051k 1,053k
Carer Support Payment (Scotland) 71k 71k 72k 72k 72k 72k 73k
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland) 0k 71k 72k 72k 72k 72k 73k
Severe Disablement Allowance 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit 137k 137k 138k 138k 139k 139k 140k
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme 93k 93k 94k 94k 94k 95k 95k
War Widow's or Widower's Pension 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Child Benefit 8,102k 8,128k 8,142k 8,165k 8,191k 8,216k 8,232k
Scottish Child Payment 350k 352k 353k 357k 354k 355k 342k
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual) 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Healthy Start vouchers 199k 200k 201k 201k 202k 203k 203k
Maternity Allowance 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Statutory Maternity Pay 332k 334k 335k 336k 337k 338k 339k
Statutory Paternity Pay 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Statutory Sick Pay 181k 182k 182k 183k 183k 184k 185k
Sure Start Maternity Grant 26k 26k 26k 26k 26k 27k 27k
Bereavement Support Payment 98k 98k 98k 99k 99k 99k 100k
Widowed Parent's Allowance 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Tax-Free Childcare 1,014k 1,024k 1,024k 1,027k 1,027k 1,031k 1,013k
Extended childcare entitlement 796k 801k 806k 809k 815k 819k 820k
Universal childcare entitlement 1,071k 1,074k 1,077k 1,080k 1,086k 1,096k 1,097k
Targeted childcare entitlement 165k 156k 154k 155k 155k 156k 144k
Childcare Offer for Wales 39k 39k 39k 39k 39k 39k 39k
Care to Learn 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Childcare Grant 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Parents' Learning Allowance 98k 98k 99k 99k 99k 100k 100k
Adult Dependants' Grant 18k 18k 12k 12k 12k 13k 13k
Travel Grant 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Cost-of-living support payment 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Energy Bills Rebate 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Basic income 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Disability basic income 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Government balance, each component counted once: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Government receipts, each component once £898.70bn £941.74bn £979.99bn £1,013.71bn £1,052.76bn £1,088.87bn £1,128.96bn
Government spending £528.87bn † £543.67bn † £551.43bn † £557.71bn † £566.13bn † £574.78bn † £582.74bn †
Government balance, each receipt once £369.83bn † £398.07bn † £428.56bn † £456.00bn † £486.63bn † £514.10bn † £546.22bn †
Benefits in household_benefits but not in gov_spending £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Model totals: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
gov_tax £898.70bn £941.74bn £979.99bn £1,013.71bn £1,052.76bn £1,088.87bn £1,128.96bn
household_tax £496.79bn £527.48bn £554.39bn £577.61bn £603.19bn £627.52bn £654.55bn
pre_budget_change_household_tax £489.00bn £519.39bn £546.08bn £568.63bn £593.98bn £618.05bn £644.75bn
gov_spending £528.87bn † £543.67bn † £551.43bn † £557.71bn † £566.13bn † £574.78bn † £582.74bn †
household_benefits £528.87bn † £543.67bn † £551.43bn † £557.71bn † £566.13bn † £574.78bn † £582.74bn †
gov_balance £369.83bn † £398.07bn † £428.56bn † £456.00bn † £486.63bn † £514.10bn † £546.22bn †
Household income totals: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Household market income £1,651.49bn £1,713.03bn £1,764.05bn £1,812.97bn £1,862.19bn £1,918.39bn £1,985.28bn
Household net income £1,644.46bn † £1,688.65bn † £1,719.42bn † £1,750.39bn † £1,781.37bn † £1,820.67bn † £1,866.89bn †
Household net income (HBAI definition) £1,457.33bn £1,504.44bn £1,537.45bn £1,569.14bn £1,602.36bn £1,640.09bn £1,686.55bn
Population: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
People 69,224k 69,466k 69,668k 69,891k 70,128k 70,381k 70,550k
Benefit units 35,100k 35,223k 35,325k 35,438k 35,558k 35,686k 35,772k
Households 31,037k 31,145k 31,236k 31,336k 31,442k 31,555k 31,631k
Poverty rates: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone 16.0% 15.1% 15.5% 15.6% 15.7% 15.8% 15.8%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children 24.0% 21.2% 21.5% 21.5% 21.7% 21.9% 21.8%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 13.8% 13.5% 14.0% 14.1% 14.2% 14.2% 14.3%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 13.7% 13.2% 13.1% 13.4% 13.5% 13.5% 13.5%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone 21.5% 20.8% 21.3% 21.5% 21.8% 21.9% 22.2%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children 33.1% 30.7% 31.1% 31.1% 31.4% 31.7% 32.3%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 19.8% 19.6% 20.3% 20.5% 20.7% 20.9% 21.1%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 12.7% 12.4% 12.3% 12.5% 12.9% 12.9% 13.0%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone 17.2% 16.4% 16.5% 16.4% 16.3% 16.4% 16.6%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children 26.2% 23.5% 23.4% 23.1% 22.8% 23.0% 23.3%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 14.6% 14.4% 14.7% 14.7% 14.6% 14.7% 14.9%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 15.0% 14.8% 14.1% 14.1% 14.0% 14.0% 14.2%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone 21.6% 21.0% 21.2% 21.2% 21.3% 21.4% 21.8%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children 33.3% 31.2% 31.0% 30.7% 31.0% 31.0% 31.5%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 19.9% 19.8% 20.2% 20.3% 20.5% 20.5% 20.7%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 12.9% 12.4% 12.2% 11.9% 11.8% 11.9% 12.8%
People in poverty: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone 11,047k 10,485k 10,769k 10,894k 11,001k 11,087k 11,136k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children 3,579k 3,184k 3,230k 3,241k 3,284k 3,320k 3,324k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 5,844k 5,751k 6,035k 6,136k 6,188k 6,228k 6,267k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 1,625k 1,550k 1,504k 1,517k 1,530k 1,539k 1,545k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone 14,858k 14,424k 14,825k 15,015k 15,271k 15,438k 15,663k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children 4,944k 4,610k 4,671k 4,688k 4,757k 4,821k 4,919k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 8,410k 8,360k 8,748k 8,915k 9,052k 9,141k 9,257k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 1,504k 1,454k 1,405k 1,412k 1,461k 1,475k 1,487k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone 11,894k 11,401k 11,466k 11,487k 11,424k 11,524k 11,707k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children 3,917k 3,523k 3,519k 3,491k 3,451k 3,491k 3,549k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 6,200k 6,134k 6,337k 6,400k 6,386k 6,438k 6,537k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 1,776k 1,744k 1,611k 1,597k 1,587k 1,595k 1,621k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone 14,968k 14,591k 14,771k 14,823k 14,961k 15,048k 15,362k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children 4,977k 4,676k 4,659k 4,634k 4,691k 4,712k 4,793k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 8,454k 8,451k 8,719k 8,845k 8,924k 8,983k 9,106k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 1,537k 1,464k 1,393k 1,344k 1,346k 1,354k 1,463k
Inequality: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Gini coefficient, equivalised HBAI income before housing costs 0.3086 0.3059 0.3065 0.3072 0.3076 0.3082 0.3096
Mean household net income in each side's own deciles: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household £17,778 † £17,871 † £17,831 † £17,889 † £18,127 † £18,315 † £18,444 †
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household £27,960 † £28,862 † £28,623 † £28,879 † £29,157 † £29,627 † £30,135 †
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household £34,382 † £35,487 † £36,017 † £36,491 † £36,753 † £37,306 † £38,129 †
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household £38,748 † £40,687 † £41,893 † £42,410 † £43,112 † £43,924 † £44,180 †
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household £43,805 † £44,625 † £45,606 † £46,287 † £47,380 † £48,284 † £49,579 †
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household £48,199 † £49,518 † £50,739 † £51,510 † £52,185 † £53,080 † £54,241 †
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household £56,235 † £57,200 † £57,769 † £58,292 † £59,031 † £60,103 † £61,824 †
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household £69,163 † £70,582 † £71,819 † £73,070 † £74,098 † £75,624 † £77,424 †
Decile 9: mean household_net_income per household £79,493 † £81,439 † £82,842 † £84,150 † £85,534 † £87,059 † £89,936 †
Decile 10: mean household_net_income per household £117,577 † £120,291 † £121,928 † £124,157 † £126,037 † £128,332 † £131,101 †
Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance): head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp £6.47bn £6.76bn £6.67bn £6.86bn £7.06bn £7.35bn £7.55bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp £3.69bn £3.98bn £4.03bn £4.29bn £4.46bn £4.78bn £4.91bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year £-3.82bn £-3.94bn £-4.01bn £-4.09bn £-4.18bn £-4.18bn £-2.00bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child £-1.99bn £-1.75bn £-1.56bn £-1.46bn £-1.35bn £-1.24bn £-1.12bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20% £-20.39bn £-20.96bn £-21.38bn £-21.57bn £-21.87bn £-22.17bn £-22.60bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10% £11.02bn £11.42bn £11.77bn £12.07bn £12.37bn £12.75bn £13.07bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp £24.89bn £25.55bn £26.14bn £26.75bn £27.39bn £28.03bn £28.66bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp £2.96bn £3.21bn £3.26bn £3.46bn £3.65bn suppressed suppressed
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10% £-3.02bn £-3.15bn £-3.26bn £-3.30bn £-3.34bn £-3.39bn £-3.44bn
Raise the State Pension by 10% £-7.79bn £-8.02bn £-8.01bn £-8.12bn £-8.43bn £-8.54bn £-8.87bn
Standard reforms: change in each reform's target: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp: change in income_tax £6.61bn £6.91bn £6.83bn £7.03bn £7.24bn £7.47bn £7.73bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp: change in income_tax £3.69bn £3.99bn £4.04bn £4.25bn £4.47bn £4.74bn £4.93bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year: change in income_tax £-3.95bn £-4.08bn £-4.17bn £-4.24bn £-4.34bn £-4.41bn £-1.76bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child: change in child_benefit £2.33bn £2.14bn £1.95bn £1.84bn £1.73bn £1.62bn £1.50bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%: change in universal_credit £20.39bn £20.95bn £21.37bn £21.62bn £21.87bn £22.22bn £22.61bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%: change in national_insurance £11.28bn £11.74bn £12.06bn £12.37bn £12.69bn £13.03bn £13.49bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp: change in vat £24.69bn £25.35bn £25.94bn £26.54bn £27.17bn £27.81bn £28.43bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax £2.96bn £3.21bn £3.26bn £3.46bn £3.66bn suppressed suppressed
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%: change in universal_credit £3.02bn £3.15bn £3.26bn £3.32bn £3.39bn £3.44bn £3.48bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%: change in state_pension £10.68bn £11.18bn £11.31bn £11.55bn £12.00bn £12.44bn £12.94bn

@MaxGhenis MaxGhenis mentioned this pull request Oct 22, 2026
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MaxGhenis commented Oct 22, 2026

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Scottish CPI follow-up coordination: #2575 now projects Scottish Child Payment and the five PAWHP rates using September CPI with annual nearest-5p rounding. It is stacked on open #2557 at 9f2ebfc829 and leaves carer_support_payment/supplement.yaml and Scottish Carer Supplement tests to this PR, avoiding a duplicate implementation.

When refreshing this PR against #2557, its gov.benefit_uprating_cpi uses September 2026 CPI 3.5% for April 2027, so the hardcoded 2027–28 supplement expectations need refreshing against that index. No merge performed.

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MaxGhenis commented Oct 25, 2026

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The UK hub has adopted this PR. It has had no progress since 10/22, and two PRs merged on 10/23 make its expectations stale:

Main still holds the supplement flat from 2027-28, so the fix is still needed. A hub build will:

An independent review follows before landing. The owner session has been told.

MaxGhenis and others added 4 commits October 25, 2026 11:02
@MaxGhenis @claude
Merge origin/main into fix-1957-scottish-carer-supplement-uprating
a2b288c 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis @claude
Round Scottish carer's assistance rates to 5p each April
f203e27 
Give the Scottish Carer Supplement and the Carer Support Payment
component the uprating Scottish Child Payment and PAWHP use since #2575:
the previous September's CPI through gov.benefit_uprating_cpi, applied
each April to the previous rounded rate and rounded to the nearest 5p,
as the 2026-27 s.86A report describes. Drop the changelog fragment's
list marker, which towncrier would render as "- - ".

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis @claude
Recompute carer uprating tests for September CPI and 5p rounding
a351b15 
#2557 re-based gov.benefit_uprating_cpi on the previous September's CPI,
so the old hard-coded index values no longer hold. Expectations are now
hand-computed from the enacted 2026-27 rates: 11.70 x 1.035 = 12.1095,
12.10 in April 2027, and 12.35 in April 2028 (OBR September 2027
forecast of 2.1%); the Carer Support Payment component goes 86.45 ->
89.50 -> 91.40. The Python tests check the 5p compounding against an
independent Decimal reference for 2027-2039 and a derandomized
September CPI scenario.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis @claude
Cite section 2.1 of the uprating report for 5p rounding
09289e4 
The nearest-five-pence rule is in section 2.1 of the 2026-27 s.86A
report; section 3.1 states only the September CPI measure.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis MaxGhenis changed the title Uprate the Scottish Carer Supplement with the benefit uprating index Uprate the Scottish Carer Supplement by September CPI with 5p rounding Oct 25, 2026
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MaxGhenis commented Oct 25, 2026

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The owner session is awake and has pushed the rework at 09289e485. It covers the hub's rework brief:

The UK hub has been asked to drop its queued rework-2105 build, so the PR keeps one writer. The Aggregate impact report goes into the description when CI posts it. Then the PR is marked ready and handed to the hub for review and landing.

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

@MaxGhenis @claude
Merge origin/main into fix-1957-scottish-carer-supplement-uprating
54d1ea4 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis
MaxGhenis marked this pull request as ready for review October 25, 2026 19:48
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MaxGhenis commented Oct 25, 2026

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Hand-off to the UK hub at head 54d1ea46621fdd92559ab0f501ee50445d83f85f.

Review. GPT-6.1 Sol returned VERDICT: APPROVE at this exact head, with no blocking findings (Subfleet run 20261025-130338-pr2105-r5, verdict in the owner's evidence folder ~/reviews/uk-scottish-carer-supplement-uprating-2026-10-02/review/review_r5_54d1ea466.md). Its non-blocking notes are answered in the description:

CI. Every check passed on the latest run at this head (gh pr checks exit 0), including Aggregate impact (run 40213990277), Test (5 shards plus YAML), Lint, Changelog fragments and Fix evidence. The PR is MERGEABLE (CLEAN), not a draft, and has no CHANGES_REQUESTED.

Local tests at 09289e485: 287 carer and Scottish YAML cases and six pytest files. At 54d1ea466: the Scottish YAML directory (96) and the new pytest file (7). Three mutants are killed (rounding removed, supplement frozen, cumulative rounding).

Impact, from CI:

2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Supplement +£1.5m +£2.4m +£3.4m +£4.3m +£5.3m
CSP component +£0.09m +£0.2m +£0.3m +£0.2m +£0.2m
CTR about -£300 to -£800
Income tax +£0.1m +£0.5m
Government balance -£1.5m -£5.0m

0 checks broken and 0 moves flagged. The full table is in the description.

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

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Scottish Carer Supplement rate has no uprating

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