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Project Scottish Child Payment and PAWHP by September CPI - #2575

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MaxGhenis merged 3 commits into
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sprint-scottish-september-cpi
Oct 23, 2026
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Project Scottish Child Payment and PAWHP by September CPI#2575
MaxGhenis merged 3 commits into
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sprint-scottish-september-cpi

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@MaxGhenis MaxGhenis commented Oct 22, 2026 •
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What and why

Projects Scottish Child Payment (SCP) and all five Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (PAWHP) amounts by the previous September's CPI through gov.benefit_uprating_cpi, with annual nearest-5p rounding each April.

Base: open PR #2557, branch benefit-uprating-september-cpi, head 9f2ebfc829684052b526b06874f3c6f725ec608d. This PR is stacked on it and must follow it; no changes to #2557's branch.

SCP's explicit 2027–2030 SFC January 2026 forecasts are removed. They predate the September 2026 CPI outturn and would otherwise override the projection (2027 £28.85 versus £29.20). These are projections, not enacted Scottish 2027 rates. Published values through April 2026 remain unchanged. PAWHP moves from same-year calendar CPI to the same September index.

Law and practice

The 2026–27 Scottish uprating report describes September CPI and nearest-5p rounding. Section 3 expressly calls September CPI current policy, kept under review. Social Security (Scotland) Act 2018 s86A(5) leaves “relevant prices” to Ministers; s86B supplies the uprating duty and rounding discretion. September CPI is ministerial practice, not a statutorily prescribed index.

The published anchors corroborate this practice: 2025–26 uses 1.7% (SCP £26.70 → £27.15; PAWHP £300 → £305.10 and £200 → £203.40); 2026–27 uses 3.8% (SCP £28.20; PAWHP £316.70 / £211.15 / £158.35 / £105.55).

April 2027 projections

Independent calculation: each enacted 2026 amount × 1.035, rounded to the nearest £0.05. Each later April compounds the previous rounded amount.

Amount April 2026 April 2027
SCP, weekly £28.20 £29.20
PAWHP higher £316.70 £327.80
PAWHP lower £211.15 £218.55
PAWHP higher shared with someone under 80 £211.15 £218.55
PAWHP higher shared with someone 80+ £158.35 £163.90
PAWHP lower shared £105.55 £109.25

For SCP, £28.20 × 1.035 = £29.187 → £29.20, versus the superseded £28.85 forecast: +£0.35 a week per eligible child (about £18.26 per model year). April 2028 projects to £29.80 using September 2027 CPI forecast 2.1%.

Scottish Carer Supplement coordination

Owned by open draft #2105, head c3b8e320556d, which already adds uprating: gov.benefit_uprating_cpi. This PR leaves the supplement to that work. #2105 must refresh its hardcoded 2027–28 expectations against #2557's September CPI index; April 2027 now uses 3.5%. Coordination note posted on #2105.

Tests

  • New hand-computed policy YAML exercises SCP and all five PAWHP awards for April 2027, with deterministic SCP take-up.
  • New Python tests preserve all six published 2025/2026 anchors, pin the six 2027 projections, check annual rounded compounding through 2039 (including after the removed 2030 anchor), and distinguish September CPI from conflicting calendar CPI scenarios.
  • Updated existing SCP forecast and baby-bonus ordinary-rate expectations; extended the generic benefit-index invariant to check configured rounding.
  • Pass: full uvx ruff format --check . (1922 files), full ruff check --no-cache ., Python AST parsing, parsing all eight changed YAML files, git diff --check.
  • Local runtime tests blocked, not passed: Data-volume free space remains below this job's 60 GB floor (latest about 55 GB). No worktree test venv, pytest, YAML runner or local microsimulation started. Fleet ops pause Add reported but unmodelled benefits #14 has been lifted with paced starts. Required resume: locked worktree UV_LINK_MODE=clone uv sync --frozen --extra dev, BLAS/OpenMP=2, foreground pytest -n 2 -p no:cacheprovider, and the Scottish policy YAML suite; wait while load1 >110 and require ≥60 GB free with no active pause.
  • Remote workflows were dispatched once because automatic PR workflows target main, while this PR targets Uprate benefits by the previous September's CPI #2557's branch: Code changes and Aggregate impact. Both remain queued for runners; no rerun or extra push was used.

Reproducer: policyengine_uk/tests/test_scottish_benefit_uprating.py::test_april_2027_scottish_rates_use_published_september_cpi, policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/gov/social_security_scotland/september_cpi_uprating.yaml

axiom: TheAxiomFoundation/rulespec-uk#431 queued

Existing #431 tracks ss86A/86B encoding debt and the missing corpus/toolchain prerequisites. September CPI and nearest-5p rounding are policy inputs there; no duplicate issue or billed encoder run is needed.

Aggregate impact

Aggregate impact CI is queued. It pins #2557 head 9f2ebfc829684052b526b06874f3c6f725ec608d against this PR head d0917f4ca3ff2e6d8dbfbbbc54234b176afe9cf8 on the certified dataset, isolating this Scottish delta from #2557's broader benefit-uprating change. No quantitative aggregate result is available yet. Expected direction: SCP and PAWHP spending rise from 2027–28; 2025–26 and 2026–27 remain unchanged. SCP increases by £0.35/week per eligible child against the removed 2027 forecast. No local aggregate simulation run.

Hub handoff follows at the final head. Independent review belongs to the hub. Do not merge.

@MaxGhenis MaxGhenis mentioned this pull request Oct 22, 2026
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MaxGhenis commented Oct 22, 2026

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UK hub handoff — Scottish September CPI follow-up F2. Do not merge.

Head d0917f4ca3ff2e6d8dbfbbbc54234b176afe9cf8, pushed once to sprint-scottish-september-cpi. Base is open #2557, benefit-uprating-september-cpi at 9f2ebfc829684052b526b06874f3c6f725ec608d. One coherent commit; existing author/history preserved.

  • Change: SCP and all five PAWHP amounts project using the September-CPI benefit index, annual April cadence and nearest-5p rounding. SCP's SFC January 2026 forecast anchors for 2027–30 are replaced because they predate the September 2026 outturn. April 2027 SCP £29.20/week; PAWHP £327.80 / £218.55 / £163.90 / £109.25 (the other shared rate is £218.55). Published 2025/2026 amounts remain intact. September CPI is ministerial practice under s86A discretion, not a statutory prescription; sources and hand calculations are in the body/YAML.
  • Tests authored: five hand-computed policy YAML cases cover all six rates; Python tests cover historical anchors, 2027 projections, annual rounding through 2039 and September-versus-calendar CPI scenarios. Existing SCP future/baby-bonus expectations and the generic index invariant are updated.
  • Checks passed: full uvx ruff format --check . (1922 files), full ruff check --no-cache ., Python AST parsing, parsing eight changed YAML files, git diff --check and recovery-bundle verification.
  • Runtime validation blocked, not passed: no model venv, pytest, policy runner or local microsimulation started because actual Data-volume free disk stayed below this job's 60 GB minimum; latest about 55 GB. Load1 also exceeded 110. Fleet ops pause 14 has been lifted with pacing, but that does not waive the job's floor. .job/VALIDATION.md gives exact frozen-env foreground commands (-n 2, threads 2) and resource gates.
  • CI: Code changes and Aggregate impact dispatched once, still queued for runners. Manual dispatch is required because automatic workflows target main and this PR is stacked on Uprate benefits by the previous September's CPI #2557. Aggregate CI pins this exact parent/head pair: no quantitative aggregate result is available yet. Expected 2025/26 delta is zero; SCP/PAWHP spending rises from 2027. SCP is +£0.35/week per eligible child versus the removed 2027 forecast (about £18.26/model year).
  • Coordination: supplement remains owned by draft Uprate the Scottish Carer Supplement by September CPI with 5p rounding #2105; note posted there to refresh its 2027–28 expectations against Uprate benefits by the previous September's CPI #2557. Existing Axiom debt is rulespec-uk#431; no duplicate issue or encoder run.
  • Hub open items: runtime checks after resource gates clear, queued CI/actual aggregate impact, independent review at this head, then normal dependency/landing coordination. No own review or in-job reviewer was run. No merge performed.

Workspace evidence: .job/PROGRESS.md, .job/HANDOFF.md, .job/handoffs.jsonl, .job/VALIDATION.md; verified recovery bundle .job/scottish-september-cpi.bundle. The sandbox protects the original .git pointer/shared directory, so this job uses workspace-local git --git-dir=.job/git; the pushed branch is the canonical result. All work stayed inside the assigned workspace.

@MaxGhenis @claude
Annualise Scottish Child Payment over 52 weeks in the new expectations
80e21df 
The award formulas annualise with policyengine-core's 52-week constant, not 365.25/7, so April 2027's £29.20/week is £1,518.40 a year and 2028's £29.80/week is £1,549.60. The baby-bonus reform cases' ordinary-rate children now read the September-CPI projection (£29.80 in 2028) rather than the SFC forecast's £29.45. Independent review P1 findings 1 and 2.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Base automatically changed from benefit-uprating-september-cpi to main October 23, 2026 04:16
@MaxGhenis @claude
Merge main into sprint-scottish-september-cpi
79f0a08 
Brings in #2557 (the base this PR was stacked on, now merged) so the
PR workflow runs against main.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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github-actions Bot commented Oct 23, 2026

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Aggregate impact on certified data: pass

Base a45baf5e49 against head 2d023ec817, both on enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5 (policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1, sha256 056e80fd8e91), fiscal years 2025-26 to 2031-32. Each year is a full microsimulation run on each side.

Checks: 0 broken by this change, 1 failing on both sides, 0 fixed. Moves flagged for review: 1 (thresholds in report_spec.yaml; a flag does not fail the job).

Workflow run and full report

Notes

  • In the years a figure from fewer than 10 records is suppressed (spending.disabled_students_allowance), every total containing it, and the decile incomes, are rebuilt from their other components, so no published total includes it. Those totals are marked †. A change is withheld where the two sides leave out different figures and can't be lined up.

Moves flagged for review

Measure Year Base Head Change
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children 2028-29 31.0% 30.9% -0.10pp

Spending by benefit and service

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland) 0 0 +£3.0m +£3.2m +£3.3m +£3.4m +£3.5m
Scottish Child Payment 0 0 +£6.5m +£6.5m +£6.5m +£6.5m +£6.3m
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed

Caseloads

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed

Government balance, each component counted once

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Government spending 0 † 0 † +£9.4m † +£9.8m † +£9.8m † +£9.9m † +£9.7m †
Government balance, each receipt once 0 † 0 † -£9.4m † -£9.8m † -£9.8m † -£9.9m † -£9.7m †

Model totals

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
gov_spending 0 † 0 † +£9.4m † +£9.8m † +£9.8m † +£9.9m † +£9.7m †
household_benefits 0 † 0 † +£9.4m † +£9.8m † +£9.8m † +£9.9m † +£9.7m †
gov_balance 0 † 0 † -£9.4m † -£9.8m † -£9.8m † -£9.9m † -£9.7m †

Household income totals

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Household net income 0 † 0 † +£9.4m † +£9.8m † +£9.8m † +£9.9m † +£9.7m †
Household net income (HBAI definition) 0 0 +£9.4m +£9.8m +£9.8m +£9.9m +£9.7m

Poverty rates

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone 0 0 0 0 0 -0.00pp 0
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 0 0 0 0 0 -0.00pp 0
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone 0 0 0 -0.00pp 0 -0.00pp 0
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children 0 0 0 0 0 -0.01pp 0
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 0 0 0 0 0 -0.00pp 0
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 0 0 0 -0.00pp 0 0 0
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone 0 0 0 0 -0.00pp 0 -0.01pp
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children 0 0 0 0 -0.00pp 0 -0.02pp
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 0 0 0 0 -0.00pp 0 -0.01pp
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 0 0 0 0 -0.00pp 0 0
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone 0 0 -0.00pp -0.03pp 0 0 0
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children 0 0 -0.00pp -0.10pp 0 0 0
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 0 0 -0.00pp -0.01pp 0 0 0

People in poverty

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone 0 0 0 0 0 -61 0
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 0 0 0 0 0 -61 0
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone 0 0 0 -2 0 -2.4k 0
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children 0 0 0 0 0 -789 0
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 0 0 0 0 0 -1.6k 0
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 0 0 0 -2 0 0 0
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone 0 0 0 0 -229 0 -6.9k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children 0 0 0 0 -5 0 -3.5k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 0 0 0 0 -3 0 -3.5k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 0 0 0 0 -222 0 0
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone 0 0 -7 -18.1k 0 0 0
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children 0 0 -4 -15.5k 0 0 0
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 0 0 -2 -2.6k 0 0 0

Inequality

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Gini coefficient, equivalised HBAI income before housing costs 0 0 -0.0000 -0.0000 -0.0000 -0.0000 -0.0000

Mean household net income in each side's own deciles

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household 0 † 0 † +£0.31 † +£0.31 † +£0.30 † +£0.30 † +£0.38 †
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household 0 † 0 † +£0.91 † +£0.93 † +£0.93 † +£0.95 † +£0.82 †
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household 0 † 0 † +£0.37 † -£1.23 † +£0.86 † +£0.67 † +£0.67 †
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household 0 † 0 † +£0.30 † +£0.43 † +£0.80 † +£0.38 † +£2.92 †
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household 0 † 0 † +£0.23 † +£0.24 † +£0.24 † +£0.24 † -£3.27 †
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household 0 † 0 † +£0.15 † +£0.15 † +£0.15 † +£0.15 † +£0.15 †
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household 0 † 0 † +£0.13 † +£0.13 † +£0.12 † +£0.12 † +£0.11 †
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household 0 † 0 † +£0.04 † +£0.04 † +£0.95 † +£0.04 † +£0.04 †
Decile 9: mean household_net_income per household 0 † 0 † +£0.05 † +£0.05 † -£1.17 † +£0.05 † +£0.06 †
Decile 10: mean household_net_income per household 0 † 0 † +£0.18 † +£0.20 † +£0.20 † +£0.21 † +£0.21 †

Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance)

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp 0 0 +£4 +£0 +£0 -£0 -£4
Raise higher rate by 1pp 0 0 -£0 0 0 -£0 -£0
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year 0 0 -£40 +£64 +£39 -£8 +£21
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child 0 0 -£45 +£111 +£13 +£93 +£20
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20% 0 0 -£0.6m -£0.6m -£0.6m -£0.6m -£0.6m
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10% 0 0 -£45 +£31 -£13,677 -£13,726 +£4
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp 0 0 -£15 +£69 -£2 +£12 -£40
Raise additional rate by 3pp 0 0 +£0 -£0 -£0 suppressed suppressed
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10% 0 0 -£59,794 -£13,594 -£13,680 -£13,702 -£13,230
Raise the State Pension by 10% 0 0 -£11 +£146 -£28 -£257 -£111

Standard reforms: change in each reform's target

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax 0 0 0 0 0 suppressed suppressed

Household net income by decile

Mean change in household net income per household, and as a share of the decile's base income; households stay in the base run's deciles.

Base decile 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Decile 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Decile 2 0 0 +£1 (+0.0%) +£1 (+0.0%) +£1 (+0.0%) +£1 (+0.0%) +£1 (+0.0%)
Decile 3 0 0 +£1 (+0.0%) +£1 (+0.0%) +£1 (+0.0%) +£1 (+0.0%) +£1 (+0.0%)
Decile 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Decile 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Decile 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Decile 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Decile 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Decile 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Decile 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
all 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Year People gaining over £1 People losing over £1
2025-26 0.0% 0.0%
2026-27 0.0% 0.0%
2027-28 2.7% 0.0%
2028-29 2.7% 0.0%
2029-30 2.6% 0.0%
2030-31 2.6% 0.0%
2031-32 2.6% 0.0%

No change in any year: receipts by tax head; population.

Checks failing on both base and head (1)
  • VAT is never negative (sign:vat): 2025-26: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-54,797,972 in total; 2026-27: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-56,271,349 in total; 2027-28: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-57,609,146 in total
Counted-once check

Each of 84 components was raised by £1 per unit in 2026-27, and every head of its totals was read household by household: its own head must rise by exactly £1, no other tax head may move, no other benefit may rise, and the model's own total must move by what its heads moved. A head that breaks a rule is measured again twice: with every other head held at its baseline value, and with every other head held at its value after the first £1 while the component rises again. It fails where either still shows the response. 0 failed; 0 were skipped.

Provenance
Side Commit Runtime Environment hash Partition hash Time
base main a45baf5e49 uk 2.148.2 (files b5518ba815b6), core 3.33.2, py 3.13.17 aarch64 b44abd50af78 d4c1e9f08160 1513.85s
head #2575 merged into main 2d023ec817 uk 2.148.2 (files 3de2dd97bf12), core 3.33.2, py 3.13.17 aarch64 b44abd50af78 d4c1e9f08160 1512.2s

Dataset: hf://policyengine/policyengine-uk-data-private/enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5@2526edbbb687a3b54dbb11272e5389e4b62d2ac2, sha256 056e80fd8e9151d78f432a25cde863340baee81304c6216a37fb575ce8563784 (verified on both sides), policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1.

Receipts by tax head: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Income tax £299.29bn £319.01bn £336.54bn £351.69bn £367.24bn £385.36bn £403.66bn
National Insurance (employee and self-employed) £52.58bn £54.94bn £56.75bn £58.48bn £60.62bn £62.57bn £65.03bn
National Insurance (employer) £152.64bn £159.18bn £164.14bn £168.73bn £176.11bn £181.72bn £188.90bn
Employer NI change borne by capital £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Employer NI change borne by consumers £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Capital gains tax £12.62bn £13.06bn £13.55bn £14.04bn £14.54bn £15.09bn £15.65bn
Student loan repayments £7.83bn £8.12bn £8.35bn £8.56bn £8.79bn £9.04bn £9.38bn
VAT £253.71bn £260.53bn £266.72bn £273.14bn £279.83bn £286.71bn £293.71bn
Change in VAT from its baseline £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
VAT on private school fees £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Fuel duties £24.53bn £24.64bn £26.64bn £26.69bn £26.42bn £25.76bn £26.35bn
Alcohol duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Tobacco duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Vehicle excise duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
TV licence fee £4.28bn £4.43bn £4.44bn £4.46bn £4.48bn £4.51bn £4.53bn
Council tax £49.56bn £52.45bn £55.78bn £59.39bn £62.98bn £66.74bn £70.70bn
High value council tax surcharge £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.48bn £0.49bn £0.51bn £0.52bn
Northern Ireland domestic rates £0.55bn £0.58bn £0.61bn £0.63bn £0.67bn £0.70bn £0.73bn
Business rates £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn
Stamp duty land tax on the household's own purchases £6.93bn £7.42bn £7.85bn £8.26bn £8.68bn £9.09bn £9.51bn
Stamp duty land tax paid by companies £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn
Land transaction tax (Wales) £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Land and buildings transaction tax (Scotland) £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn
Unspecified tax change borne by capital £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Unspecified tax change borne by consumers £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Wealth tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Wealth tax excluding the main residence £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Land value tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Carbon tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Spending by benefit and service: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
State Pension £122.15bn £126.64bn £127.76bn £129.65bn £133.46bn £137.40bn £141.47bn
Pension Credit £6.68bn £7.07bn £7.09bn £7.16bn £7.28bn £7.42bn £7.52bn
Winter Fuel Payment £1.70bn £1.68bn £1.59bn £1.57bn £1.57bn £1.55bn £1.52bn
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland) £0.19bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.21bn £0.21bn £0.22bn £0.22bn
Universal Credit £75.54bn £80.75bn £83.40bn £85.21bn £86.21bn £87.61bn £88.91bn
Housing Benefit £8.59bn £8.93bn £9.19bn £9.33bn £9.61bn £9.87bn £10.15bn
Council Tax Reduction £1.99bn £2.03bn £2.08bn £2.13bn £2.18bn £2.23bn £2.29bn
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related) £2.12bn £2.18bn £2.23bn £2.28bn £2.33bn £2.39bn £2.45bn
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based) £5.22bn £5.36bn £5.49bn £5.62bn £5.76bn £5.90bn £6.04bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based) £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based) £0.29bn £0.30bn £0.30bn £0.31bn £0.32bn £0.33bn £0.33bn
Income Support £0.12bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Working Tax Credit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Child Tax Credit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Incapacity Benefit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Personal Independence Payment £27.05bn £28.19bn £29.28bn £30.02bn £30.75bn £31.51bn £32.28bn
Disability Living Allowance £7.52bn £7.83bn £8.14bn £8.34bn £8.55bn £8.76bn £8.97bn
Attendance Allowance £8.71bn £9.08bn £9.43bn £9.67bn £9.90bn £10.15bn £10.40bn
Carer's Allowance £4.50bn £4.69bn £4.87bn £4.99bn £5.11bn £5.23bn £5.36bn
Carer Support Payment (Scotland) £0.31bn £0.32bn £0.34bn £0.34bn £0.35bn £0.36bn £0.37bn
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland) £0.00bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn
Severe Disablement Allowance £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit £0.51bn £0.52bn £0.53bn £0.54bn £0.56bn £0.57bn £0.59bn
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme £0.61bn £0.62bn £0.64bn £0.65bn £0.67bn £0.69bn £0.70bn
War Widow's or Widower's Pension £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Child Benefit £16.23bn £16.91bn £17.53bn £17.96bn £18.39bn £18.84bn £19.29bn
Scottish Child Payment £0.50bn £0.52bn £0.54bn £0.56bn £0.56bn £0.58bn £0.59bn
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual) £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Healthy Start vouchers £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn
Maternity Allowance £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Statutory Maternity Pay £3.32bn £3.41bn £3.49bn £3.57bn £3.66bn £3.75bn £3.84bn
Statutory Paternity Pay £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Statutory Sick Pay £1.13bn £1.16bn £1.19bn £1.22bn £1.25bn £1.28bn £1.31bn
Sure Start Maternity Grant £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn
Bereavement Support Payment £0.67bn £0.69bn £0.70bn £0.72bn £0.74bn £0.76bn £0.78bn
Tax-Free Childcare £0.55bn £0.56bn £0.57bn £0.58bn £0.60bn £0.61bn £0.59bn
Extended childcare entitlement £2.77bn £3.27bn £3.36bn £3.43bn £3.53bn £3.61bn £3.70bn
Universal childcare entitlement £2.26bn £2.45bn £2.51bn £2.58bn £2.64bn £2.72bn £2.78bn
Targeted childcare entitlement £0.47bn £0.49bn £0.50bn £0.51bn £0.52bn £0.53bn £0.47bn
Care to Learn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Childcare Grant £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Parents' Learning Allowance £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn
Adult Dependants' Grant £0.06bn £0.06bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn
Travel Grant £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
NHS spending £204.68bn £205.46bn £206.22bn £207.04bn £207.96bn £208.89bn £209.79bn
State education spending £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn
Transport subsidy spending £25.15bn £25.25bn £25.34bn £25.44bn £25.55bn £25.67bn £25.78bn
Cost-of-living support payment £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Energy Bills Rebate £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Basic income £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Disability basic income £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Other public spending budget change £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Caseloads: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
State Pension 11,308k 11,208k 10,906k 10,812k 10,860k 10,908k 10,955k
Pension Credit 1,491k 1,489k 1,478k 1,459k 1,459k 1,456k 1,453k
Winter Fuel Payment 7,091k 7,011k 6,599k 6,512k 6,493k 6,379k 6,248k
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland) 806k 807k 807k 805k 809k 812k 816k
Universal Credit 6,361k 6,370k 6,404k 6,419k 6,390k 6,387k 6,368k
Housing Benefit 1,254k 1,252k 1,254k 1,239k 1,245k 1,247k 1,249k
Council Tax Reduction 3,186k 3,211k 3,226k 3,245k 3,264k 3,281k 3,293k
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related) 187k 188k 188k 189k 190k 190k 191k
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based) 722k 724k 727k 730k 733k 737k 740k
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based) 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based) 67k 67k 68k 68k 68k 69k 69k
Income Support 25k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Working Tax Credit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Child Tax Credit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Incapacity Benefit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Personal Independence Payment 3,581k 3,595k 3,608k 3,623k 3,639k 3,655k 3,671k
Disability Living Allowance 1,296k 1,301k 1,306k 1,311k 1,317k 1,323k 1,329k
Attendance Allowance 1,701k 1,708k 1,714k 1,721k 1,729k 1,736k 1,744k
Carer's Allowance 1,038k 1,042k 1,046k 1,050k 1,055k 1,059k 1,064k
Carer Support Payment (Scotland) 71k 72k 72k 72k 73k 73k 73k
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland) 0k 72k 72k 72k 73k 73k 73k
Severe Disablement Allowance 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit 137k 138k 139k 139k 140k 140k 141k
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme 94k 94k 94k 95k 95k 95k 96k
War Widow's or Widower's Pension 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Child Benefit 8,136k 8,165k 8,185k 8,215k 8,249k 8,282k 8,314k
Scottish Child Payment 352k 354k 355k 359k 357k 358k 357k
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual) 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Healthy Start vouchers 200k 201k 202k 203k 204k 204k 205k
Maternity Allowance 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Statutory Maternity Pay 334k 335k 336k 338k 339k 341k 342k
Statutory Paternity Pay 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Statutory Sick Pay 182k 183k 183k 184k 185k 186k 186k
Sure Start Maternity Grant 26k 26k 26k 27k 27k 27k 27k
Bereavement Support Payment 98k 98k 99k 99k 100k 100k 101k
Tax-Free Childcare 1,018k 1,029k 1,028k 1,033k 1,034k 1,039k 1,023k
Extended childcare entitlement 718k 724k 728k 732k 737k 741k 743k
Universal childcare entitlement 986k 989k 992k 997k 1,002k 1,013k 1,015k
Targeted childcare entitlement 98k 98k 96k 96k 96k 97k 84k
Care to Learn 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Childcare Grant 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Parents' Learning Allowance 98k 99k 99k 100k 100k 100k 101k
Adult Dependants' Grant 18k 18k 12k 13k 13k 13k 13k
Travel Grant 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Cost-of-living support payment 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Energy Bills Rebate 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Basic income 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Disability basic income 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Government balance, each component counted once: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Government receipts, each component once £899.38bn £939.24bn £976.25bn £1,009.45bn £1,045.73bn £1,082.67bn £1,123.55bn
Government spending £531.92bn † £546.96bn † £554.91bn † £562.05bn † £570.64bn † £579.84bn † £588.91bn †
Government balance, each receipt once £367.47bn † £392.28bn † £421.34bn † £447.40bn † £475.09bn † £502.83bn † £534.64bn †
Benefits in household_benefits but not in gov_spending £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Model totals: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
gov_tax £899.38bn £939.24bn £976.25bn £1,009.45bn £1,045.73bn £1,082.67bn £1,123.55bn
household_tax £493.03bn £519.53bn £545.39bn £567.58bn £589.79bn £614.24bn £640.95bn
pre_budget_change_household_tax £485.21bn £511.41bn £537.04bn £558.54bn £580.51bn £604.69bn £631.05bn
gov_spending £531.92bn † £546.96bn † £554.91bn † £562.05bn † £570.64bn † £579.84bn † £588.91bn †
household_benefits £531.92bn † £546.96bn † £554.91bn † £562.05bn † £570.64bn † £579.84bn † £588.91bn †
gov_balance £367.47bn † £392.28bn † £421.34bn † £447.40bn † £475.09bn † £502.83bn † £534.64bn †
Household income totals: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Household market income £1,657.06bn £1,719.25bn £1,771.68bn £1,821.99bn £1,872.88bn £1,930.99bn £2,001.98bn
Household net income £1,656.67bn † £1,705.92bn † £1,739.32bn † £1,773.52bn † £1,809.66bn † £1,851.25bn † £1,902.90bn †
Household net income (HBAI definition) £1,463.15bn £1,510.70bn £1,544.54bn £1,577.64bn £1,611.74bn £1,650.78bn £1,701.21bn
Population: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
People 69,514k 69,778k 70,036k 70,316k 70,626k 70,944k 71,249k
Benefit units 35,247k 35,381k 35,512k 35,654k 35,811k 35,972k 36,127k
Households 31,167k 31,285k 31,401k 31,526k 31,665k 31,808k 31,944k
Poverty rates: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone 16.2% 15.2% 15.5% 15.7% 15.7% 15.8% 15.8%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children 24.6% 21.4% 21.6% 21.6% 21.8% 22.0% 21.9%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 13.9% 13.5% 14.0% 14.1% 14.2% 14.3% 14.2%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 13.7% 13.2% 13.2% 13.5% 13.5% 13.6% 13.6%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone 21.5% 20.8% 21.4% 21.6% 21.9% 22.2% 22.2%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children 33.4% 30.9% 31.2% 31.3% 31.7% 32.2% 32.3%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 19.8% 19.6% 20.3% 20.4% 20.8% 21.0% 21.0%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 12.8% 12.6% 12.6% 13.0% 13.3% 13.4% 13.4%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone 17.2% 16.5% 16.5% 16.6% 16.4% 16.5% 16.6%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children 26.4% 23.7% 23.4% 23.4% 22.9% 23.0% 23.3%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 14.6% 14.4% 14.6% 14.8% 14.7% 14.8% 14.9%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 15.0% 14.8% 14.1% 14.2% 14.0% 14.1% 14.2%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone 21.7% 21.1% 21.3% 21.3% 21.4% 21.5% 21.9%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children 33.5% 31.3% 31.1% 30.9% 31.0% 31.1% 31.7%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 19.9% 19.8% 20.2% 20.3% 20.4% 20.5% 20.8%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 13.0% 12.7% 12.6% 12.3% 12.2% 12.2% 13.1%
People in poverty: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone 11,270k 10,578k 10,858k 11,007k 11,103k 11,238k 11,252k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children 3,696k 3,227k 3,267k 3,285k 3,319k 3,371k 3,363k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 5,940k 5,792k 6,071k 6,182k 6,234k 6,302k 6,314k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 1,634k 1,559k 1,519k 1,540k 1,550k 1,566k 1,575k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone 14,972k 14,539k 14,956k 15,179k 15,479k 15,738k 15,843k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children 5,005k 4,656k 4,709k 4,752k 4,834k 4,929k 4,973k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 8,445k 8,399k 8,796k 8,942k 9,125k 9,270k 9,320k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 1,521k 1,484k 1,452k 1,485k 1,520k 1,539k 1,550k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone 11,980k 11,485k 11,528k 11,641k 11,552k 11,677k 11,825k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children 3,967k 3,570k 3,543k 3,556k 3,491k 3,522k 3,589k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 6,227k 6,161k 6,359k 6,462k 6,453k 6,536k 6,592k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 1,785k 1,754k 1,627k 1,623k 1,608k 1,619k 1,644k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone 15,057k 14,705k 14,915k 14,967k 15,110k 15,227k 15,621k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children 5,024k 4,718k 4,698k 4,686k 4,731k 4,765k 4,874k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 8,480k 8,486k 8,769k 8,883k 8,981k 9,056k 9,230k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 1,552k 1,501k 1,448k 1,398k 1,398k 1,405k 1,516k
Inequality: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Gini coefficient, equivalised HBAI income before housing costs 0.3087 0.3060 0.3067 0.3074 0.3079 0.3085 0.3096
Mean household net income in each side's own deciles: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household £17,832 † £18,015 † £18,026 † £18,059 † £18,395 † £18,584 † £18,743 †
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household £28,134 † £29,089 † £28,826 † £29,239 † £29,565 † £29,946 † £30,476 †
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household £34,455 † £35,681 † £36,265 † £36,778 † £37,077 † £37,627 † £38,512 †
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household £39,398 † £41,043 † £42,037 † £42,777 † £43,510 † £44,366 † £44,676 †
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household £43,698 † £45,019 † £46,119 † £46,804 † £47,819 † £48,805 † £49,918 †
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household £48,494 † £49,775 † £50,906 † £51,593 † £52,132 † £53,430 † £54,830 †
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household £56,356 † £57,547 † £58,429 † £59,170 † £60,256 † £60,799 † £62,484 †
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household £68,817 † £70,403 † £71,736 † £73,017 † £74,373 † £75,880 † £77,602 †
Decile 9: mean household_net_income per household £79,735 † £82,088 † £83,308 † £84,528 † £86,190 † £87,657 † £90,676 †
Decile 10: mean household_net_income per household £117,772 † £120,640 † £122,567 † £124,671 † £126,895 † £129,221 † £132,115 †
Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance): head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp £6.22bn £6.50bn £6.70bn £6.90bn £7.11bn £7.34bn £7.62bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp £3.54bn £3.82bn £4.05bn £4.27bn £4.49bn £4.76bn £4.96bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year £-3.83bn £-3.96bn £-4.03bn £-4.10bn £-4.19bn £-4.30bn £-2.02bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child £-2.00bn £-1.76bn £-1.58bn £-1.48bn £-1.38bn £-1.28bn £-1.17bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20% £-20.49bn £-21.05bn £-21.50bn £-21.94bn £-22.03bn £-22.40bn £-22.87bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10% £11.07bn £11.51bn £11.84bn £12.14bn £12.49bn £12.83bn £13.23bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp £25.01bn £25.68bn £26.29bn £26.92bn £27.58bn £28.26bn £28.95bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp £2.83bn £3.07bn £3.27bn £3.47bn £3.67bn suppressed suppressed
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10% £-3.03bn £-3.16bn £-3.28bn £-3.35bn £-3.39bn £-3.44bn £-3.51bn
Raise the State Pension by 10% £-7.81bn £-8.07bn £-7.99bn £-8.11bn £-8.36bn £-8.66bn £-9.02bn
Standard reforms: change in each reform's target: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp: change in income_tax £6.36bn £6.65bn £6.86bn £7.07bn £7.28bn £7.52bn £7.80bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp: change in income_tax £3.55bn £3.83bn £4.06bn £4.28bn £4.50bn £4.77bn £4.97bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year: change in income_tax £-3.96bn £-4.10bn £-4.19bn £-4.26bn £-4.36bn £-4.47bn £-1.77bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child: change in child_benefit £2.34bn £2.15bn £1.96bn £1.85bn £1.74bn £1.63bn £1.51bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%: change in universal_credit £20.48bn £21.04bn £21.49bn £21.93bn £22.02bn £22.40bn £22.86bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%: change in national_insurance £11.33bn £11.79bn £12.13bn £12.44bn £12.78bn £13.13bn £13.62bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp: change in vat £25.01bn £25.68bn £26.29bn £26.92bn £27.58bn £28.26bn £28.95bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax £2.83bn £3.07bn £3.27bn £3.47bn £3.67bn suppressed suppressed
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%: change in universal_credit £3.03bn £3.16bn £3.28bn £3.36bn £3.41bn £3.47bn £3.52bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%: change in state_pension £10.72bn £11.23bn £11.37bn £11.62bn £12.08bn £12.54bn £13.07bn

@MaxGhenis
MaxGhenis added this pull request to the merge queue Oct 23, 2026
Merged via the queue into main with commit 7a2926e Oct 23, 2026
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@MaxGhenis
MaxGhenis deleted the sprint-scottish-september-cpi branch October 23, 2026 20:15
@MaxGhenis

MaxGhenis commented Oct 23, 2026

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Merged by the UK hub (Claude session 8e19f9d5) at head 79f0a086f, through the merge queue with the head pinned.

  • What it fixes: follow-up F2 from Uprate benefits by the previous September's CPI #2557's review. Scottish Child Payment's post-2026 projection and all five Pension Age Winter Heating Payment rates now project by the September-CPI benefit index, with annual 5p rounding, as Scottish Ministers have uprated them in practice (Social Security (Scotland) Act 2018 s.86A). SCP reaches £29.20 in April 2027 (£28.20 × 1.035, rounded) and £29.80 in April 2028.
  • First review (GPT-6.1 Sol, at d0917f4ca): it approved the law and practice reading and all six April 2027 rates. It asked for SCP annualisation at the formulas' 52 weeks, a corrected baby-bonus expectation, and aggregate evidence.
  • Second review (GPT-6.1 Sol, APPROVE at 80e21df7b):
    • Six corrected assertions in four files: £29.20 × 52 = £1,518.40 (2027) and £29.80 × 52 = £1,549.60 (2028). No stale executable expectations remain.
    • CI at that head passed 4,122 YAML and 8,089 Python tests.
    • The SCP move (£0.35 × 52 × about 354,900 recipients) and the PAWHP move (+1.47%, against 1.035 / 1.02 − 1) are plausible against the SFC's January 2026 forecasts.
    • Nonblocking: one stale comment at september_cpi_uprating.yaml:9. The hub fixes it in a follow-up.
  • Hub merge of main: the review covered 80e21df7b. After Uprate benefits by the previous September's CPI #2557, which this PR was stacked on, merged, the hub's only change was 79f0a086f: a clean merge of current main, so the PR workflow ran against main.
  • CI: every check passes at this head. The merge queue re-runs the full suite against current main.
  • Impact (Aggregate impact report, against main a45baf5e49 on uk-data 1.58.1):
    • Scottish Child Payment rises £6.5m a year from 2027-28 (£6.3m in 2031-32).
    • Pension Age Winter Heating Payment rises £3.0m (2027-28) to £3.5m (2031-32).
    • Nothing moves before 2027-28, and caseloads don't change.
  • Why now: Budget-day Scottish benefit projections depend on it, and Max asked on 22 Oct to clear the UK PR backlog before the Budget.

MaxGhenis added a commit that referenced this pull request Oct 25, 2026
@MaxGhenis @claude
Round Scottish carer's assistance rates to 5p each April
f203e27 
Give the Scottish Carer Supplement and the Carer Support Payment
component the uprating Scottish Child Payment and PAWHP use since #2575:
the previous September's CPI through gov.benefit_uprating_cpi, applied
each April to the previous rounded rate and rounded to the nearest 5p,
as the 2026-27 s.86A report describes. Drop the changelog fragment's
list marker, which towncrier would render as "- - ".

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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@MaxGhenis