[anth-volk]

Fixes #2224

Adds the approved £20 Housing Benefit special standard earnings disregard. It replaces £5/£10 rather than stacking with them, preserves lone-parent precedence, caps the deduction at net earnings and participates in the additional-disregard threshold.

Automatic routes distinguish the statutory regulation set: working-age disability/severe premiums; pension-age qualifying benefit receipt (including SDA and an actual WTC award with either disability element), blindness or carer premium, restricted to claimant/partner. Other full-amount cases can use the single pre-assessed Boolean. Existing premium qualification approximations are inherited, not audited or expanded here.

Important boundary: working-age carer/occupation provisions can restrict the deduction to a particular person's/job's earnings. A supplied Boolean must establish that the full amount is legally available across the unit's earnings. Category membership alone does not suffice. Partial allocations below £20 are not reconstructed. Pension paragraph 5 routes still requiring pre-assessment are long-term Incapacity Benefit status, prescribed war/personal-injury mobility supplements, main-phase ESA, continuous incapacity, assessed/excepted LCW or LCWRA, and protected earlier awards with eight-week continuity. Scottish PADP/SADLA/ADP mapping to existing receipt categories is unverified. The false fallback can omit qualifying awards. No verified dataset mapping for residual pre-assessment.

Government references are embedded in the monetary parameter and all formulas: GB working-age Schedule 4, GB pension-age Schedule 4, NI working-age Schedule 5, NI pension-age Schedule 5. The £20 amount is not CPI-uprated.

The full-amount pre-assessment remains a single Boolean input; no occupation/history flag matrix.

Validation at 1db09c3e86b670b44aa35775de71b40d20918c55 (review fixes on top of a clean merge of main e54d354f6):

• Changed YAML files: 44 passed (14 special-disregard tests, 30 applicable-income-disregard tests). Before the receipt fix, the new special file produced four expected failures identifying SDA and WTC omissions in GB/NI.
• Full housing_benefit YAML directory: 367 passed.
• pytest -n 4 policyengine_uk/tests/test_housing_benefit*.py policyengine_uk/tests/test_council_tax_reduction_pensioner_earnings_disregard_properties.py: 147 passed, using the existing cloned_uk_tax_benefit_system fixture for independent model state without repeated source loading. This includes the formerly failing cross-module oracle, independent natural eligibility, both ages with eligibility fixed false and true, the £20 freeze, and direct selected-standard bounds/precedence with 72 explicit boundary combinations.
• Two mutations killed through run_capped.py --rss-gb 2: selection order (1 failed / 13 passed) and net-earnings cap (3 failed / 11 passed). Both isolated clones returned YAML exit 1, with successful harness exits. Paragraph 17 special-term mutation was not run: 25 five-minute resource checks over 2:00:41 found only 39.54–50.84 decimal GB free (final 40.48 GB), below the required 52 GB. The idle wait was stopped; no paragraph 17 mutant/test process launched and no kill is claimed.
• make format, uvx ruff format --check . (1,984 files), and git diff --check passed.

Python 3.13.9; core 3.33.2, pytest 9.1.1, Hypothesis 6.169.0 and xdist 3.8.0 match uv.lock. All local test commands were gated by load1 ≤110 and at least 52 decimal GB free disk. No full repository suite or local population simulation was run; the focused checks cover this change. Hosted CI reruns have started on this head; these local results do not establish its outcome.

Reproducer: policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/finance/benefit/family/housing_benefit/applicable_income/housing_benefit_special_disregard.yaml

Impact: the Aggregate impact report at head 05246aa1d (merge commit 1ed307fa49 against eb0b8087d8, on enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5 from policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1) passes with no flagged moves. Housing Benefit spending rises by £0.1m a year from 2025-26 to 2028-29 and is unchanged from 2029-30 to 2031-32. Household net income moves by the same amount and the government balance falls by it. No check breaks; one check fails on both sides.
Main advanced during the disk wait. A final read-only git merge-tree --write-tree HEAD origin/main against eb0b8087d821b92d4faa75cf51a92d15aa2a3c45 exited 0. The local test results above are for the pushed head with its setup-time main merge.

Merge dependency: merge before the permitted-work and childcare/accommodation composition, preserving each later replacement and calculation.

axiom: TheAxiomFoundation/rulespec-uk#375 queued
The special and permitted-work earnings disregards extension to rulespec-uk#375, with the law, required outputs and companion tests: TheAxiomFoundation/rulespec-uk#375 (comment) (UK hub, 24 Oct).

[anth-volk]

Corrected the existing disabled-worker test to expect (£20 + £17.10) × 52 = £1,929.20 and removed its obsolete known-limitation description. No formula, parameter or input changes. The altered earnings-disregard YAML file passed 30 tests; the special-disregard file passed 6 tests, sequentially. Formatting/lint and git diff --check passed. No full suite or CI polling. Dependent branches were not rewritten; preserve this correction when rebasing them.

[MaxGhenis]

Parent-gated build hand-off. Head remains 6e68f23fafef3a1e0a1718bd5d1e4bc0fa860c72; no branch changes, push or retarget. Immediate parent #2211 is still OPEN/unmerged at d91378be94d5678e4ac40cda5ead37fd3344106e (checked 22 October). Its reconciliation is committed locally but cannot complete verification until the required disk gate opens: #2211 (comment)

Tests for this child: 0 executed in this job; no claim is made about the current head's CI. Preserve Anthony's corrected disabled-worker earnings-disregard regression (£1,929.20) when updating the base. Draft status unchanged; no merge/readiness/closure action.

Once #2211 lands, the pending commands are:

git fetch origin main add-hb-special-disregard
git switch add-hb-special-disregard  # create tracking branch if absent
git merge --no-ff origin/main
# Resolve, run focused foreground tests with -n 2 after load1 <=110 and
# os.statvfs available disk >=55 GB decimal; commit fixes and push once.
gh api -X PATCH repos/PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk/pulls/2225 -f base=main

Open items: parent landing; merge/test/push/body refresh as needed; retarget; hub independent review. #2219 remains gated on this PR's landing.

[juaristi22]

Reviewed at 6e68f23fafef3a1e0a1718bd5d1e4bc0fa860c72. No actionable findings from independent policy/source and code reviews of the special earnings-disregard component.

The GB and NI schedules support the automatic £20 routes, lone-parent precedence and documented externally assessed residual route. The new amount replaces the ordinary selection rather than stacking it.

Validation: 36 focused tests passed. A 70-year-old blind pension-age claimant with actual earnings, pension and rent selects £1040 rather than the £260 ordinary control, raising final HB from £3884.66 to £4391.66, exactly £507. Qualification and eligibility were not forced. The input-contract boundaries and parent merge order remain.

[github-actions]

Aggregate impact on certified data: pass

Base eb0b8087d8 against head 1ed307fa49, both on enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5 (policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1, sha256 056e80fd8e91), fiscal years 2025-26 to 2031-32. Each year is a full microsimulation run on each side.

Checks: 0 broken by this change, 1 failing on both sides, 0 fixed. Moves flagged for review: 0 (thresholds in report_spec.yaml; a flag does not fail the job).

Workflow run and full report

Notes

• In the years a figure from fewer than 10 records is suppressed (spending.disabled_students_allowance), every total containing it, and the decile incomes, are rebuilt from their other components, so no published total includes it. Those totals are marked †. A change is withheld where the two sides leave out different figures and can't be lined up.

Moves flagged for review

None.

Spending by benefit and service

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Housing Benefit	+£0.1m	+£0.1m	+£0.1m	+£0.1m	0	0	0
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed

Caseloads

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed

Government balance, each component counted once

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Government spending	+£0.1m †	+£0.1m †	+£0.1m †	+£0.1m †	0 †	0 †	0 †
Government balance, each receipt once	-£0.1m †	-£0.1m †	-£0.1m †	-£0.1m †	0 †	0 †	0 †

Model totals

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
gov_spending	+£0.1m †	+£0.1m †	+£0.1m †	+£0.1m †	0 †	0 †	0 †
household_benefits	+£0.1m †	+£0.1m †	+£0.1m †	+£0.1m †	0 †	0 †	0 †
gov_balance	-£0.1m †	-£0.1m †	-£0.1m †	-£0.1m †	0 †	0 †	0 †

Household income totals

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Household net income	+£0.1m †	+£0.1m †	+£0.1m †	+£0.1m †	0 †	0 †	0 †
Household net income (HBAI definition)	+£0.1m	+£0.1m	+£0.1m	+£0.1m	0	0	0

Inequality

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Gini coefficient, equivalised HBAI income before housing costs	-0.0000	-0.0000	-0.0000	-0.0000	0	0	0

Mean household net income in each side's own deciles

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household	+£0.04 †	+£0.04 †	+£0.04 †	+£0.04 †	0 †	0 †	0 †

Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance)

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp	0	+£0	+£0	0	0	0	0
Raise higher rate by 1pp	0	+£0	+£0	0	0	0	0
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year	-£0	0	+£0	0	0	0	0
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child	0	+£0	+£0	-£0	0	0	0
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%	0	+£0	+£0	0	0	0	0
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%	-£0	+£0	+£0	0	0	0	0
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp	-£0	+£0	+£0	-£0	0	0	0
Raise additional rate by 3pp	-£0	0	0	0	0	suppressed	suppressed
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%	0	+£0	+£0	0	0	0	0
Raise the State Pension by 10%	0	+£0	+£0	0	0	0	0

Standard reforms: change in each reform's target

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax	0	0	0	0	0	suppressed	suppressed

Household net income by decile

Mean change in household net income per household, and as a share of the decile's base income; households stay in the base run's deciles.

Base decile	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Decile 1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Decile 2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Decile 3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Decile 4	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	0	0	0
Decile 5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Decile 6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Decile 7	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Decile 8	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Decile 9	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Decile 10	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
all	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	0	0	0

Year	People gaining over £1	People losing over £1
2025-26	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change
2026-27	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change
2027-28	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change
2028-29	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change
2029-30	0.0%	0.0%
2030-31	0.0%	0.0%
2031-32	0.0%	0.0%

No change in any year: receipts by tax head; population; poverty rates; people in poverty.

Checks failing on both base and head (1)

• VAT excluding private school fees is never negative (sign:vat): 2025-26: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-53,889,156 in total; 2026-27: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-55,420,387 in total; 2027-28: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-56,618,038 in total

Counted-once check

Each of 88 components was raised by £1 per unit in 2026-27, and every head of its totals was read household by household: its own head must rise by exactly £1, no other tax head may move, no other benefit may rise, and the model's own total must move by what its heads moved. A head that breaks a rule is measured again twice: with every other head held at its baseline value, and with every other head held at its value after the first £1 while the component rises again. It fails where either still shows the response. 0 failed; 0 were skipped.

• widowed_parents_allowance: pension_credit responds only through other heads in fewer than 10 households (other heads that moved there: carers_allowance; gov_spending; not a failure)
• widowed_parents_allowance: pension_credit responds only through other heads in fewer than 10 households (other heads that moved there: carers_allowance; household_benefits; not a failure)

Provenance

Side	Commit	Runtime	Environment hash	Partition hash	Time
base	main eb0b8087d8	uk 2.158.1 (files 27fe792b181e), core 3.33.2, py 3.13.17 aarch64	7e5ceecb0e53	f7d4b2145ebb	1751.13s
head	#2225 merged into main 1ed307fa49	uk 2.158.1 (files c6792cd0f0f3), core 3.33.2, py 3.13.17 aarch64	7e5ceecb0e53	f7d4b2145ebb	1749.9s

Dataset: hf://policyengine/policyengine-uk-data-private/enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5@2526edbbb687a3b54dbb11272e5389e4b62d2ac2, sha256 056e80fd8e9151d78f432a25cde863340baee81304c6216a37fb575ce8563784 (verified on both sides), policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1.

Receipts by tax head: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Income tax	£298.70bn	£318.31bn	£335.60bn	£350.52bn	£365.79bn	£383.53bn	£401.03bn
National Insurance (employee and self-employed)	£52.37bn	£54.71bn	£56.48bn	£58.15bn	£60.22bn	£62.11bn	£64.44bn
National Insurance (employer)	£152.00bn	£158.47bn	£163.28bn	£167.71bn	£174.87bn	£180.28bn	£187.05bn
Employer NI change borne by capital	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Employer NI change borne by consumers	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Capital gains tax	£12.61bn	£13.05bn	£13.53bn	£14.02bn	£14.52bn	£15.05bn	£15.58bn
Student loan repayments	£7.79bn	£8.09bn	£8.31bn	£8.51bn	£8.72bn	£8.97bn	£9.28bn
VAT excluding private school fees	£249.37bn	£255.28bn	£261.81bn	£267.87bn	£274.12bn	£280.56bn	£286.81bn
Change in VAT from its baseline	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
VAT on private school fees	£1.95bn	£2.00bn	£2.05bn	£2.10bn	£2.21bn	£2.21bn	£2.31bn
Change in private school VAT from its baseline	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Fuel duties	£24.53bn	£24.64bn	£26.64bn	£26.69bn	£26.42bn	£25.76bn	£26.35bn
Alcohol duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Tobacco duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Vehicle excise duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Betting and gaming duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
TV licence fee	£4.26bn	£4.41bn	£4.42bn	£4.44bn	£4.45bn	£4.47bn	£4.48bn
Council tax	£49.21bn	£51.88bn	£54.97bn	£58.29bn	£61.55bn	£64.92bn	£68.49bn
High value council tax surcharge	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.48bn	£0.49bn	£0.50bn	£0.51bn
Northern Ireland domestic rates	£0.55bn	£0.58bn	£0.60bn	£0.63bn	£0.66bn	£0.69bn	£0.72bn
Business rates	£34.68bn	£38.04bn	£38.88bn	£39.76bn	£43.07bn	£43.13bn	£44.57bn
Stamp duty land tax on the household's own purchases	£6.90bn	£7.39bn	£7.81bn	£8.21bn	£8.62bn	£9.02bn	£9.42bn
Stamp duty land tax paid by companies	£4.81bn	£5.98bn	£6.73bn	£7.46bn	£8.21bn	£8.87bn	£9.16bn
Land transaction tax (Wales)	£0.07bn	£0.08bn	£0.09bn	£0.09bn	£0.10bn	£0.10bn	£0.11bn
Land and buildings transaction tax (Scotland)	£0.31bn	£0.32bn	£0.34bn	£0.35bn	£0.37bn	£0.38bn	£0.40bn
Unspecified tax change borne by capital	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Unspecified tax change borne by consumers	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Wealth tax	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Wealth tax excluding the main residence	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Land value tax	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Carbon tax	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn

Spending by benefit and service: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
State Pension	£121.64bn	£126.07bn	£127.08bn	£128.87bn	£132.52bn	£136.31bn	£140.08bn
Pension Credit	£6.66bn	£7.04bn	£7.32bn	£7.46bn	£7.60bn	£7.77bn	£7.94bn
Winter Fuel Payment	£1.86bn	£1.86bn	£1.80bn	£1.78bn	£1.79bn	£1.79bn	£1.80bn
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland)	£0.19bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.21bn	£0.21bn	£0.22bn	£0.22bn
Universal Credit	£75.21bn	£80.38bn	£82.93bn	£84.23bn	£85.58bn	£86.87bn	£87.97bn
Housing Benefit	£8.55bn	£8.89bn	£9.17bn	£9.31bn	£9.58bn	£9.84bn	£10.10bn
Council Tax Reduction	£1.98bn	£2.02bn	£2.07bn	£2.11bn	£2.16bn	£2.21bn	£2.25bn
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related)	£0.79bn	£0.81bn	£0.83bn	£0.85bn	£0.86bn	£0.89bn	£0.90bn
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based)	£5.20bn	£5.34bn	£5.46bn	£5.59bn	£5.72bn	£5.85bn	£5.99bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based)	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based)	£0.29bn	£0.30bn	£0.30bn	£0.31bn	£0.32bn	£0.32bn	£0.33bn
Income Support	£0.12bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Working Tax Credit	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Child Tax Credit	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Incapacity Benefit	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Personal Independence Payment	£26.94bn	£28.06bn	£29.13bn	£29.83bn	£30.54bn	£31.26bn	£31.96bn
Disability Living Allowance	£7.49bn	£7.80bn	£8.10bn	£8.29bn	£8.49bn	£8.69bn	£8.88bn
Attendance Allowance	£8.68bn	£9.04bn	£9.38bn	£9.61bn	£9.83bn	£10.07bn	£10.29bn
Carer's Allowance	£4.48bn	£4.67bn	£4.84bn	£4.96bn	£5.08bn	£5.19bn	£5.31bn
Carer Support Payment (Scotland)	£0.31bn	£0.32bn	£0.33bn	£0.34bn	£0.35bn	£0.36bn	£0.37bn
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland)	£0.00bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn
Severe Disablement Allowance	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit	£0.50bn	£0.52bn	£0.53bn	£0.54bn	£0.55bn	£0.57bn	£0.58bn
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme	£0.61bn	£0.62bn	£0.64bn	£0.65bn	£0.67bn	£0.68bn	£0.70bn
War Widow's or Widower's Pension	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Child Benefit	£16.16bn	£16.83bn	£17.43bn	£17.85bn	£18.26bn	£18.69bn	£19.10bn
Scottish Child Payment	£0.49bn	£0.52bn	£0.54bn	£0.55bn	£0.56bn	£0.57bn	£0.56bn
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual)	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Healthy Start vouchers	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn
Maternity Allowance	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Statutory Maternity Pay	£3.30bn	£3.39bn	£3.47bn	£3.55bn	£3.63bn	£3.72bn	£3.80bn
Statutory Paternity Pay	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Statutory Sick Pay	£1.12bn	£1.15bn	£1.18bn	£1.21bn	£1.24bn	£1.27bn	£1.29bn
Sure Start Maternity Grant	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn
Bereavement Support Payment	£0.67bn	£0.69bn	£0.70bn	£0.72bn	£0.73bn	£0.75bn	£0.77bn
Widowed Parent's Allowance	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Tax-Free Childcare	£0.55bn	£0.56bn	£0.57bn	£0.58bn	£0.59bn	£0.61bn	£0.59bn
Extended childcare entitlement	£2.99bn	£3.50bn	£3.60bn	£3.67bn	£3.77bn	£3.85bn	£3.94bn
Universal childcare entitlement	£2.05bn	£2.23bn	£2.28bn	£2.34bn	£2.40bn	£2.47bn	£2.52bn
Targeted childcare entitlement	£0.50bn	£0.51bn	£0.52bn	£0.53bn	£0.54bn	£0.56bn	£0.52bn
Childcare Offer for Wales	£0.26bn	£0.28bn	£0.28bn	£0.29bn	£0.30bn	£0.30bn	£0.31bn
Care to Learn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Childcare Grant	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Parents' Learning Allowance	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn
Adult Dependants' Grant	£0.06bn	£0.06bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn
Travel Grant	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
NHS spending	£203.83bn	£204.54bn	£205.13bn	£205.79bn	£206.49bn	£207.23bn	£207.73bn
State education spending	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn
Transport subsidy spending	£25.05bn	£25.13bn	£25.21bn	£25.29bn	£25.37bn	£25.46bn	£25.53bn
Cost-of-living support payment	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Energy Bills Rebate	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Basic income	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Disability basic income	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Other public spending budget change	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn

Caseloads: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
State Pension	11,261k	11,158k	10,849k	10,746k	10,783k	10,822k	10,848k
Pension Credit	1,485k	1,483k	1,480k	1,461k	1,462k	1,464k	1,460k
Winter Fuel Payment	7,842k	7,793k	7,494k	7,407k	7,432k	7,459k	7,477k
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland)	803k	803k	803k	800k	803k	806k	808k
Universal Credit	6,334k	6,341k	6,366k	6,347k	6,345k	6,333k	6,298k
Housing Benefit	1,249k	1,247k	1,250k	1,234k	1,238k	1,240k	1,239k
Council Tax Reduction	3,175k	3,198k	3,209k	3,229k	3,244k	3,257k	3,264k
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related)	71k	71k	71k	71k	71k	72k	72k
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based)	719k	721k	723k	726k	728k	731k	732k
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based)	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based)	67k	67k	67k	68k	68k	68k	68k
Income Support	25k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Working Tax Credit	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Child Tax Credit	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Incapacity Benefit	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Personal Independence Payment	3,566k	3,579k	3,589k	3,601k	3,613k	3,626k	3,635k
Disability Living Allowance	1,291k	1,295k	1,299k	1,303k	1,308k	1,312k	1,316k
Attendance Allowance	1,694k	1,700k	1,705k	1,711k	1,716k	1,723k	1,727k
Carer's Allowance	1,034k	1,038k	1,041k	1,044k	1,048k	1,051k	1,053k
Carer Support Payment (Scotland)	71k	71k	72k	72k	72k	72k	73k
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland)	0k	71k	72k	72k	72k	72k	73k
Severe Disablement Allowance	4k	4k	4k	4k	4k	4k	4k
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit	137k	137k	138k	138k	139k	139k	140k
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme	93k	93k	94k	94k	94k	95k	95k
War Widow's or Widower's Pension	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Child Benefit	8,102k	8,128k	8,142k	8,165k	8,191k	8,216k	8,232k
Scottish Child Payment	350k	352k	353k	357k	354k	355k	342k
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual)	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Healthy Start vouchers	199k	200k	201k	201k	202k	203k	203k
Maternity Allowance	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Statutory Maternity Pay	332k	334k	335k	336k	337k	338k	339k
Statutory Paternity Pay	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Statutory Sick Pay	181k	182k	182k	183k	183k	184k	185k
Sure Start Maternity Grant	26k	26k	26k	26k	26k	27k	27k
Bereavement Support Payment	98k	98k	98k	99k	99k	99k	100k
Widowed Parent's Allowance	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Tax-Free Childcare	1,014k	1,024k	1,024k	1,027k	1,027k	1,031k	1,013k
Extended childcare entitlement	796k	801k	806k	809k	815k	819k	820k
Universal childcare entitlement	1,071k	1,074k	1,077k	1,080k	1,086k	1,096k	1,097k
Targeted childcare entitlement	165k	156k	154k	155k	155k	156k	144k
Childcare Offer for Wales	39k	39k	39k	39k	39k	39k	39k
Care to Learn	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Childcare Grant	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Parents' Learning Allowance	98k	98k	99k	99k	99k	100k	100k
Adult Dependants' Grant	18k	18k	12k	12k	12k	13k	13k
Travel Grant	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Cost-of-living support payment	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Energy Bills Rebate	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Basic income	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Disability basic income	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k

Government balance, each component counted once: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Government receipts, each component once	£900.12bn	£943.23bn	£981.52bn	£1,015.29bn	£1,054.39bn	£1,090.56bn	£1,130.72bn
Government spending	£528.87bn †	£543.67bn †	£551.43bn †	£557.71bn †	£566.13bn †	£574.77bn †	£582.74bn †
Government balance, each receipt once	£371.25bn †	£399.56bn †	£430.10bn †	£457.58bn †	£488.27bn †	£515.79bn †	£547.98bn †
Benefits in household_benefits but not in gov_spending	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn

Model totals: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
gov_tax	£900.12bn	£943.23bn	£981.52bn	£1,015.29bn	£1,054.39bn	£1,090.56bn	£1,130.72bn
household_tax	£496.79bn	£527.48bn	£554.39bn	£577.61bn	£603.19bn	£627.52bn	£654.55bn
pre_budget_change_household_tax	£489.00bn	£519.39bn	£546.08bn	£568.63bn	£593.98bn	£618.05bn	£644.75bn
gov_spending	£528.87bn †	£543.67bn †	£551.43bn †	£557.71bn †	£566.13bn †	£574.77bn †	£582.74bn †
household_benefits	£528.87bn †	£543.67bn †	£551.43bn †	£557.71bn †	£566.13bn †	£574.77bn †	£582.74bn †
gov_balance	£371.25bn †	£399.56bn †	£430.10bn †	£457.58bn †	£488.27bn †	£515.79bn †	£547.98bn †

Household income totals: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Household market income	£1,651.49bn	£1,713.03bn	£1,764.05bn	£1,812.97bn	£1,862.19bn	£1,918.39bn	£1,985.28bn
Household net income	£1,644.46bn †	£1,688.65bn †	£1,719.42bn †	£1,750.39bn †	£1,781.36bn †	£1,820.67bn †	£1,866.89bn †
Household net income (HBAI definition)	£1,457.62bn	£1,504.74bn	£1,537.75bn	£1,569.43bn	£1,602.65bn	£1,640.38bn	£1,686.54bn

Population: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
People	69,224k	69,466k	69,668k	69,891k	70,128k	70,381k	70,550k
Benefit units	35,100k	35,223k	35,325k	35,438k	35,558k	35,686k	35,772k
Households	31,037k	31,145k	31,236k	31,336k	31,442k	31,555k	31,631k

Poverty rates: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone	15.9%	15.1%	15.5%	15.6%	15.7%	15.7%	15.8%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children	24.0%	21.1%	21.5%	21.5%	21.7%	21.7%	21.8%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	13.8%	13.5%	14.0%	14.1%	14.2%	14.2%	14.3%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	13.6%	13.2%	13.1%	13.4%	13.5%	13.5%	13.5%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone	21.4%	20.8%	21.2%	21.5%	21.8%	21.9%	22.2%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children	33.0%	30.7%	31.0%	31.1%	31.4%	31.7%	32.3%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	19.8%	19.6%	20.2%	20.5%	20.7%	20.9%	21.1%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	12.7%	12.3%	12.3%	12.5%	12.9%	12.9%	13.0%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone	17.2%	16.4%	16.5%	16.4%	16.3%	16.4%	16.6%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children	26.2%	23.5%	23.4%	23.1%	22.8%	23.0%	23.3%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	14.6%	14.3%	14.7%	14.7%	14.6%	14.7%	14.9%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	15.0%	14.8%	14.1%	14.1%	14.0%	14.0%	14.2%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone	21.6%	21.0%	21.2%	21.2%	21.3%	21.4%	21.8%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children	33.2%	31.2%	30.9%	30.7%	31.0%	31.0%	31.5%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	19.9%	19.8%	20.1%	20.3%	20.4%	20.5%	20.7%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	12.9%	12.4%	12.1%	11.8%	11.8%	11.9%	12.8%

People in poverty: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone	11,039k	10,465k	10,769k	10,890k	10,992k	11,057k	11,136k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children	3,579k	3,171k	3,230k	3,240k	3,280k	3,300k	3,324k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	5,843k	5,744k	6,034k	6,134k	6,183k	6,218k	6,267k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	1,616k	1,550k	1,504k	1,517k	1,530k	1,539k	1,545k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone	14,840k	14,418k	14,804k	15,005k	15,265k	15,430k	15,663k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children	4,937k	4,609k	4,667k	4,687k	4,755k	4,820k	4,919k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	8,401k	8,356k	8,734k	8,907k	9,048k	9,135k	9,257k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	1,503k	1,453k	1,404k	1,412k	1,461k	1,475k	1,487k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone	11,889k	11,389k	11,463k	11,483k	11,421k	11,523k	11,707k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children	3,915k	3,517k	3,517k	3,489k	3,449k	3,489k	3,549k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	6,197k	6,128k	6,335k	6,397k	6,384k	6,437k	6,537k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	1,776k	1,744k	1,611k	1,597k	1,587k	1,596k	1,621k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone	14,943k	14,585k	14,741k	14,808k	14,951k	15,039k	15,362k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children	4,967k	4,674k	4,650k	4,630k	4,691k	4,712k	4,793k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	8,441k	8,448k	8,700k	8,836k	8,916k	8,976k	9,106k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	1,535k	1,463k	1,391k	1,342k	1,344k	1,352k	1,463k

Inequality: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Gini coefficient, equivalised HBAI income before housing costs	0.3084	0.3058	0.3064	0.3071	0.3075	0.3081	0.3096

Mean household net income in each side's own deciles: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household	£17,768 †	£17,862 †	£17,836 †	£17,888 †	£18,172 †	£18,307 †	£18,443 †
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household	£27,982 †	£28,857 †	£28,628 †	£28,890 †	£29,105 †	£29,623 †	£30,135 †
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household	£34,380 †	£35,464 †	£36,042 †	£36,502 †	£36,778 †	£37,311 †	£38,128 †
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household	£39,272 †	£40,694 †	£41,875 †	£42,379 †	£43,101 †	£43,923 †	£44,180 †
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household	£43,318 †	£44,626 †	£45,564 †	£46,292 †	£47,361 †	£48,268 †	£49,578 †
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household	£48,188 †	£49,519 †	£50,747 †	£51,489 †	£52,191 †	£53,186 †	£54,241 †
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household	£56,167 †	£57,131 †	£57,759 †	£58,177 †	£58,914 †	£59,920 †	£61,824 †
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household	£69,198 †	£70,961 †	£71,804 †	£73,232 †	£74,253 †	£75,667 †	£77,424 †
Decile 9: mean household_net_income per household	£79,493 †	£81,039 †	£82,842 †	£84,144 †	£85,534 †	£87,055 †	£89,936 †
Decile 10: mean household_net_income per household	£117,577 †	£120,291 †	£121,928 †	£124,157 †	£126,037 †	£128,333 †	£131,101 †

Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance): head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp	£6.47bn	£6.76bn	£6.67bn	£6.86bn	£7.06bn	£7.35bn	£7.55bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp	£3.69bn	£3.98bn	£4.03bn	£4.29bn	£4.46bn	£4.78bn	£4.91bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year	£-3.82bn	£-3.94bn	£-4.01bn	£-4.09bn	£-4.18bn	£-4.18bn	£-2.00bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child	£-1.99bn	£-1.75bn	£-1.56bn	£-1.46bn	£-1.35bn	£-1.24bn	£-1.12bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%	£-20.39bn	£-20.96bn	£-21.38bn	£-21.57bn	£-21.87bn	£-22.17bn	£-22.60bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%	£11.02bn	£11.42bn	£11.77bn	£12.07bn	£12.37bn	£12.75bn	£13.07bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp	£24.89bn	£25.55bn	£26.14bn	£26.75bn	£27.39bn	£28.03bn	£28.66bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp	£2.96bn	£3.21bn	£3.26bn	£3.46bn	£3.65bn	suppressed	suppressed
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%	£-3.02bn	£-3.15bn	£-3.26bn	£-3.30bn	£-3.34bn	£-3.39bn	£-3.44bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%	£-7.79bn	£-8.02bn	£-8.01bn	£-8.12bn	£-8.43bn	£-8.54bn	£-8.87bn

Standard reforms: change in each reform's target: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp: change in income_tax	£6.61bn	£6.91bn	£6.83bn	£7.03bn	£7.24bn	£7.47bn	£7.73bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp: change in income_tax	£3.69bn	£3.99bn	£4.04bn	£4.25bn	£4.47bn	£4.74bn	£4.93bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year: change in income_tax	£-3.95bn	£-4.08bn	£-4.17bn	£-4.24bn	£-4.34bn	£-4.41bn	£-1.76bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child: change in child_benefit	£2.33bn	£2.14bn	£1.95bn	£1.84bn	£1.73bn	£1.62bn	£1.50bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%: change in universal_credit	£20.39bn	£20.95bn	£21.37bn	£21.62bn	£21.87bn	£22.22bn	£22.61bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%: change in national_insurance	£11.28bn	£11.74bn	£12.06bn	£12.37bn	£12.69bn	£13.03bn	£13.49bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp: change in vat	£24.69bn	£25.35bn	£25.94bn	£26.54bn	£27.17bn	£27.81bn	£28.43bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax	£2.96bn	£3.21bn	£3.26bn	£3.46bn	£3.66bn	suppressed	suppressed
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%: change in universal_credit	£3.02bn	£3.15bn	£3.26bn	£3.32bn	£3.39bn	£3.44bn	£3.48bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%: change in state_pension	£10.68bn	£11.18bn	£11.31bn	£11.55bn	£12.00bn	£12.44bn	£12.94bn

[MaxGhenis]

r1 fixes are committed at 1db09c3e86b670b44aa35775de71b40d20918c55, after cleanly merging main e54d354f6. Fix commits: 375d7727a, 042260687, 1db09c3e8.

• P2 receipt eligibility: housing_benefit_special_earnings_disregard_eligible.py:70 adds claimant/partner SDA; line 83 mirrors Pension Credit's positive WTC award AND positive disability/severe-disability elements test. The docstring at line 5 quotes freshly fetched GB/NI paragraph 5 and names the residual categories. GB/NI receipt and boundary regressions start at housing_benefit_special_disregard.yaml:57: SDA, both WTC elements, award/element negatives, partner receipt, adult non-dependant receipt and same-unit young-person exclusion.
• P2 obsolete oracle: test_council_tax_reduction_pensioner_earnings_disregard_properties.py:345 now selects lone-parent £25, special £20, then ordinary £10/£5. The explicit 18/34 couple and disabled-single examples pin £520 and £1,040. Main supplies explicit adult/child claimant roles at lines 124/131.
• P2 direct cap oracle: housing_benefit_special_disregard.yaml:335 asserts the six selected amounts directly. The independent Hypothesis property at test_housing_benefit_earnings_disregard_properties.py:338 varies nonnegative net earnings, family and qualification, asserting statutory precedence, non-stacking and bounds, including 72 explicit boundary combinations.
• P3 coverage: the age comparison at that Python file's line 286 independently asserts natural eligibility, compares every family at both ages with eligibility fixed false and true, and preserves natural lone-parent equality. Line 232 freezes the special amount at £20. The new GB/NI matrices positively exercise AA, DLA mobility, both PIP components and AFIP.

Validation on this head: 44 changed YAML tests passed; 367 full HB YAML tests passed; 147 Python tests passed (-n 4, existing cloned-system fixture). make format, uvx ruff format --check . (1,984 files) and git diff --check passed. Local test commands met load1 ≤110 and ≥52 decimal GB disk gates.

Two mutations killed under run_capped.py --rss-gb 2: selection order (1 assertion failure / 13 passes) and net cap (3 assertion failures / 11 passes, including the direct £500 cap). Both returned YAML exit 1 and the harness exited 0. Paragraph 17 special term: not run. 25 five-minute resource checks over 2:00:41 found only 39.54–50.84 decimal GB free (final 40.48 GB), below the required 52 GB. The idle wait was stopped; no paragraph 17 mutant/test process launched and no kill is claimed.

Still pre-assessed/unmodelled: long-term IB status; prescribed mobility supplements; main-phase ESA, assessed/excepted LCW/LCWRA and incapacity duration; protected earlier awards/continuity; unverified Scottish PADP/SADLA/ADP mappings; existing working-age history/occupation and partial person/job earnings allocations. The existing changelog covers these fixes. PR stays draft. CI reruns have started (Code changes, Aggregate impact); no new local population-impact claim is made. The axiom line is retained.

Main advanced during the resource wait; a final read-only merge-tree against eb0b8087d821b92d4faa75cf51a92d15aa2a3c45 exits 0. The tested/pushed head includes the setup-time main e54d354f6. No second push or history rewrite.