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End the Pension Credit, Child Benefit and CTC qualifying young person status for Income Support in own right - #2302

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End the Pension Credit, Child Benefit and CTC qualifying young person status for Income Support in own right#2302
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qyp-income-support-exclusion

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@MaxGhenis MaxGhenis commented Oct 11, 2026 •
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Fixes #2292

Stacked on #2299, #2301, #2300, #2387 and #2279. Do not merge before them. This PR edits the qualifying young person tests those PRs change. Until they merge, the diff here also shows their commits. This PR's own commits:

git log -p --no-merges origin/qyp-income-support-exclusion ^origin/main ^origin/ctc-qyp-school-leaver-routes ^origin/qyp-terminal-date-19

Summary

A young person who receives Income Support in their own right is not a qualifying young person (QYP) for Pension Credit, Child Benefit or Child Tax Credit. The model's own-right input, receives_benefits_in_own_right, covers Universal Credit, Employment and Support Allowance and Jobseeker's Allowance, which is Universal Credit's list. Income support, which the other three programmes also name, did not end the status.

Against its base (items 1, 2 and 6 merged, on main 4d80b29 with #2279), YAML cases run as plain simulations on both (scratch/probe_E_base_vs_branch.txt):

Case Variable Base This PR
2: pensioner 70, 17-year-old at school reporting £3,000 of Income Support (2025-26) young person's Pension Credit QYP status true false
young person's Child Benefit QYP status true false
young person's Universal Credit QYP status true true
child_minimum_guarantee_addition £4,061.20 £0
child_benefit_entitlement £1,354.60 £0
3: parent 40, the same 17-year-old (2024-25) CTC_child_element £3,455 £0

This is a follow-up from #2279 (its "Reg. 4A(5)'s income support exclusion is also missing").

The law

  • Pension Credit. SPC Regs 2002 reg. 4A(5): "A person who is receiving universal credit, a contributory employment and support allowance, a contribution-based jobseeker's allowance, an income-related employment and support allowance, an income-based jobseeker's allowance or income support is not a qualifying young person."
  • Child Benefit, and through SSCBA 1992 s.142 the Housing Benefit and legacy young person. Child Benefit (General) Regulations 2006 reg. 8(2): "The condition is that the person is not in receipt, in a week, of— (a) income support, [...]".
  • Child Tax Credit. CTC Regs 2002 reg. 5(4)(c): the period must not be "a period in respect of which that person receives income support, [...]".
  • Universal Credit does not list it. UC Regs 2013 reg. 5(5): "A person who is receiving universal credit, an employment and support allowance or a jobseeker's allowance is not a qualifying young person."

Change

  • New receives_income_support_in_own_right (Person, year): the person's own reported Income Support (income_support_reported above zero) while Income Support is in payment (gov.dwp.income_support.active, true to 31 March 2026). A dataset or situation can set it directly. It is false once a reform removes Income Support (neutralizes income_support), as is_on_income_support already treats another member's own claim; the review of this PR found the first version kept excluding the young person under such a reform.
  • is_qualifying_young_person_for_pension_credit, ..._for_child_benefit and ..._for_child_tax_credit now also require that it is false. It applies to every route, as each regulation's exclusion does.
  • is_qualifying_young_person_for_universal_credit is unchanged.

Why reported receipt and not the calculated award. The benefit unit's income_support is the claimant's award, and it depends on who the family's young persons are (lone-parent status and the child allowances read the Child Benefit QYP). Reading it here would be a cycle. is_on_income_support has that same dependency for claimants; for another member it reads their own report while Income Support is in payment, which is what the new variable does.

Still not separated, and noted in the docstrings: Child Benefit reg. 8 also lists incapacity benefit and tax credits; CTC reg. 5(4)(c) lists only the income-related and income-based allowances, where the existing input also catches the contributory ones.

Invariants

  1. Over every combination of age, education, training, the other own-right benefits and the 16th-birthday fact: with Income Support in their own right, nobody is a Pension Credit, Child Benefit or Child Tax Credit QYP.
  2. Without it, each of those three statuses is exactly what it is when the input is left alone.
  3. Universal Credit status never depends on it.
  4. Without it, Pension Credit and Universal Credit agree on every combination; with it, Pension Credit is the narrower.
  5. By default the input is the person's own reported Income Support while Income Support is in payment (to 2025-26) and no reform removes it, and false otherwise.

Tests

  • Properties, new test_qualifying_young_person_income_support_properties.py: invariants 1 to 4 over 512 combinations (8 ages, every education value, training, own-right benefits, the 16th-birthday fact), each run three ways, so 1,536 rows (input untouched, false, true), with a check that there is a status to lose; invariant 5 on Hypothesis-drawn ages, reported amounts and years from 2021 to 2028. A new test applies a reform that neutralizes income_support: the same 17-year-old student reporting £3,000 is excluded from all three statuses with Income Support and qualifies for all three once it is removed.
  • YAML, new qualifying_young_person_income_support.yaml, seven cases hand-computed:
Case Facts Expected
1 2025-26; pensioner 70, 17-year-old at school, no Income Support every programme's QYP; Pension Credit first-child addition £78.10 × 52 = £4,061.20; Child Benefit £26.05 × 52 = £1,354.60
2 as 1, the 17-year-old reports £3,000 of Income Support not a Pension Credit or Child Benefit QYP, nor a legacy young person; addition and Child Benefit £0; still a Universal Credit QYP
3 2024-25; parent 40, same 17-year-old not a CTC QYP; child element £0
4 as 3 without Income Support child element £3,455
5 2025-26; a 16-year-old school leaver reporting Income Support excluded from Pension Credit and Child Benefit; still a Universal Credit QYP
6 2026-27; a report of Income Support after it stopped paying does not count
7 the input set directly excluded

Mutation checks, each applied alone in a copy of the branch (YAML cases and property tests that fail):

Mutation YAML cases Property tests
Pension Credit ignores Income Support 2, 5, 7 the grid
Child Benefit ignores Income Support 2, 5, 7 the grid
Child Tax Credit ignores Income Support 3 the grid
Universal Credit excludes for Income Support too 2, 5, 7 the grid
A report counts after Income Support stopped paying 6 the default test

Run locally at c6c46e6:

Round 2 mutation at c6c46e6 (mutation/prE_r2.txt): receipt that ignores a reform removing Income Support fails test_no_receipt_once_a_reform_removes_income_support.

The full suites run in CI.

Microsimulation impact

Aggregate impact report (CI)

The report runs main a8b2848 against this PR merged into it (62e9317) on the certified Enhanced FRS 2024-25 (policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1), one full run per side for each year 2025-26 to 2031-32. Result: pass, 0 checks broken, 2 moves flagged. It is identical, line for line, to #2299's report: this PR's own change, and #2300 and #2301 that it carries, move nothing from 2025-26. The carried figures are #2299's (Child Benefit +£5.2m to +£6.2m a year; the two relative poverty flags, where the poverty line moves, not anyone's income) and #2279's taper costing line. Commits since then change tests only (the benefit cap oracle and #2279's test generator), so the report carries over to the current head.

Local runs

Real runs on Enhanced FRS 2024-25 (uk-data 1.58.0, sha256 5ba399ea5ab9a6c7), one run each for 2024-25 to 2030-31, exact comparison of every record. Base: items 1, 2 and 6 merged (local merge 565b29c04, on main e01f2f5 with #2279 and #2387). Branch: c6c46e6. Outputs: impact/prE_r2/.

No record changes in any year. In 2024-25 and 2025-26, 60 records (about 36,000 weighted people) receive Income Support in their own right, and none is aged 16 to 19; no one aged 16 to 19 reports any Income Support (impact/prE_r1/context.txt, on the earlier base). From 2026-27 Income Support is not in payment. The PR changes household calculations (the table at the top).

Reproducer: policyengine_uk/tests/test_qualifying_young_person_income_support_properties.py::test_income_support_ends_three_statuses_and_not_universal_credit

axiom: SPC Regs 2002 reg 4A(5) TheAxiomFoundation/rulespec-uk#360 queued (its Case F and addendum cases A3 and A4 cover income support); Child Benefit (General) Regulations 2006 reg 8 TheAxiomFoundation/rulespec-uk#356 queued (addendum); CTC Regs 2002 reg 5(4)(c) TheAxiomFoundation/rulespec-uk#361 queued (addendum, Case J). Each states its blocker: the rows are in an unreleased ingest, axiom-corpus#765, and a billed encoder run needs approval.

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MaxGhenis and others added 30 commits October 10, 2026 18:09
@MaxGhenis @claude
Add the UC and Pension Credit qualifying young person route with no e…
6af7019 
…ducation condition

UC Regs 2013 reg. 5(1)(a) and SPC Regs 2002 reg. 4A(1)(a) make a person who
has reached 16 a qualifying young person up to the 1 September following
their 16th birthday, whatever their education. The model encoded only the
education route, so a 16-year-old outside education was not a UC or PC
qualifying young person.

is_before_first_september_following_16th_birthday places that date from the
date of birth and counts the route for a year that starts (6 April) before
it: every annual age of 16, and a 17-year-old born from 1 September to 6
October. Both QYP variables OR it with the education route, under the same
age band and own-right benefits exclusion. Tests: YAML cases hand-computed
from the regulations (flags, date edges, UC child element and work
allowance, PC child addition), the property-test oracle, a calendar
differential over every birth date in 2008-2011 and across years, and a
grid test of sufficiency, monotonicity, exclusion and UC/PC agreement.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis
Merge remote-tracking branch 'origin/uc-pc-qyp-sixteen-route' into cb…
3d327fe 
…-qyp-school-leaver-routes
@MaxGhenis @claude
Add the Child Benefit qualifying young person conditions for school l…
505ac7e 
…eavers

Child Benefit (General) Regulations 2006 regs 4, 5 and 7 were not modelled:
is_qualifying_young_person_for_child_benefit was reg. 3 (education or
training) alone, so a 16-year-old who had left school was not a qualifying
young person for Child Benefit, nor a young person for Housing Benefit, the
legacy benefits or Council Tax Reduction (SSCBA 1992 s.142).

- Reg. 4: until the 31 August after the 16th birthday, read from
  is_before_first_september_following_16th_birthday.
- Reg. 5: the 20-week extension period for a 16- or 17-year-old not in
  remunerative work, from the new input is_in_child_benefit_extension_period.
- Reg. 7: until the terminal date after leaving, from the new input
  is_before_child_benefit_terminal_date.
- Reg. 7(3): no Child Benefit for a young person who qualifies through
  reg. 7 alone and works 24 hours or more a week
  (is_child_benefit_payable_for_person); they stay a qualifying young person.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis @claude
Add the Child Tax Credit qualifying young person rules for school lea…
9b3b82a 
…vers

Child Tax Credit Regulations 2002 reg. 4 makes a person a qualifying young
person from their 16th birthday until the 31 August that next follows, with
no education condition, and reg. 5(3)(b) adds the 20 weeks after leaving for
an under-18 registered for work or training. The model had only the
education condition (reg. 5(3)(a), (ab)).

- Reg. 4 reads is_before_first_september_following_16th_birthday.
- Reg. 5(3)(b) reads the new input is_in_child_tax_credit_extension_period.
- Reg. 5(4)(a): a young person who has left education or training and works
  24 hours a week or more is not a qualifying young person through either.

Tax credits ended on 5 April 2025, so this changes years to 2024-25.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis
Merge remote-tracking branch 'origin/uc-pc-qyp-sixteen-route' into qy…
9c194db 
…p-terminal-date-19
@MaxGhenis @claude
Place the 1 September after a QYP's 19th birthday from the date of birth
dc4cf44 
UC Regs 2013 reg. 5(1)(b) and SPC Regs 2002 reg. 4A(1)(b) keep a young
person in education or training a qualifying young person up to, but not
including, the 1 September following their 19th birthday.

- Universal Credit read the date from an input that defaulted to false, so
  a 19-year-old at school was not a qualifying young person in a household
  calculation, while the microdata sets the input true for every
  19-year-old in education.
- Pension Credit did not model the date at all.

Add is_before_first_september_following_19th_birthday, which counts a year
that starts before the date, as the 16th-birthday fact does.
is_before_universal_credit_qualifying_young_person_terminal_date now
follows it unless set, and Pension Credit's new terminal date condition
reads it.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis
Merge branch 'qyp-terminal-date-19' into qyp-income-support-exclusion
a5f5b1b
@MaxGhenis @claude
Exclude Income Support in own right from PC, Child Benefit and CTC QYPs
9b0c276 
SPC Regs 2002 reg. 4A(5), Child Benefit (General) Regulations 2006
reg. 8(2)(a) and CTC Regs 2002 reg. 5(4)(c) each say a person receiving
income support is not a qualifying young person. The own-right benefits
input covers Universal Credit, Employment and Support Allowance and
Jobseeker's Allowance, which is Universal Credit's list (reg. 5(5)).

Add receives_income_support_in_own_right: the person's own reported Income
Support while Income Support is in payment (to 2025-26), settable directly.
It does not read the benefit unit's calculated award, which depends on who
the family's young persons are. The three programmes' qualifying young
person tests exclude it; Universal Credit's does not.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis @claude
Update the Housing Benefit childcare case for a disabled 16-year-old …
086b78b 
…school leaver

A disabled 16-year-old outside education is now a young person until the 31 August after their 16th birthday (Child Benefit reg. 4; HB reg 19(1)), so HB reg 28(6) counts them. Keep the original point, that the disability age extension does not itself create young-person status, as a second case with the reg. 4 period ended.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis @claude
Place the property tests' 16-year-old outside the reg 5(1)(a) route
2ef1d8d 
Two property tests build a member who is outside every programme's family
as a 16 to 19 year old not in education. At 16 that member is now a UC
qualifying young person under reg 5(1)(a), so the family's UC gains a child
element and the tests' premise no longer holds. Their generators now set
is_before_first_september_following_16th_birthday false for that member.
The test functions are unchanged, so Hypothesis draws the same examples.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis @claude
Merge remote-tracking branch 'origin/uc-pc-qyp-sixteen-route' into cb…
64ca2d2 
…-qyp-school-leaver-routes

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis @claude
Keep the Income Support property's outside member out of the Child Be…
bb6f487 
…nefit reg. 4 period

test_excluded_member_never_changes_is_eligibility adds a member aged 16 or over who is not in education, on the premise that they are not a qualifying young person. With reg. 4 a 16-year-old who has left education is one until the 31 August after their 16th birthday, so the generator now puts the member past that date, as #2279 does for the same reason in two other property tests.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis @claude
Merge branch 'cb-qyp-school-leaver-routes' into ctc-qyp-school-leaver…
3ca8714 
…-routes

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis @claude
Merge remote-tracking branch 'origin/uc-pc-qyp-sixteen-route' into qy…
24b79b8 
…p-terminal-date-19

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis @claude
Merge branch 'ctc-qyp-school-leaver-routes' into qyp-income-support-e…
85bbc1c 
…xclusion

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis @claude
Merge branch 'qyp-terminal-date-19' into qyp-income-support-exclusion
724d012 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis @claude
Vary the age the course began in the Child Tax Credit leaver grid
1954ebe 
A mutation that opened the leaver routes to a student who fails the
entry condition (reg. 5(3A)) passed every test: the grid fixed the entry
age at 17. The grid now also draws a course begun at 19, with the date
fact set directly, and asserts that such a student never qualifies.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis @claude
Pin the 1 September birthday in the terminal-date YAML cases
3876f05 
A mutation that read a 19th birthday on 1 September as its own
"1 September following" was caught by the calendar property test only.
Case 11 pins the edge in YAML too.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis @claude
Merge remote-tracking branch 'origin/claimant-not-own-child-or-qyp' i…
70eb1cf 
…nto cb-qyp-school-leaver-routes

Brings in #2285's review round 2 head (212db88).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis @claude
Merge remote-tracking branch 'origin/cb-qyp-school-leaver-routes' int…
83ea641 
…o ctc-qyp-school-leaver-routes

Brings in #2285's review round 2 head through the item 1 branch.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis @claude
Merge remote-tracking branch 'origin/ctc-qyp-school-leaver-routes' in…
eeb1d85 
…to qyp-income-support-exclusion

Brings in the item 2 grid fix and #2285's review round 2 head.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis @claude
Merge remote-tracking branch 'origin/qyp-terminal-date-19' into qyp-i…
1a131a9 
…ncome-support-exclusion

Brings in the 1 September YAML case.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis @claude
Merge origin/main into cb-qyp-school-leaver-routes
2575e9e 
Brings in main with #2285 and #2288 merged.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis @claude
Merge origin/main into qyp-terminal-date-19
d262e0a 
Brings in main with #2285 and #2288 merged.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis @claude
Merge origin/cb-qyp-school-leaver-routes into ctc-qyp-school-leaver-r…
59f5a25 
…outes

Brings in main with #2285 and #2288 merged.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis @claude
Merge origin/ctc-qyp-school-leaver-routes into qyp-income-support-exc…
20c921a 
…lusion

Brings in main with #2285 and #2288 merged, through items 1 and 2.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis @claude
Merge origin/qyp-terminal-date-19 into qyp-income-support-exclusion
0d14bc6 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis @claude
Address review r1c: partial-input warning, two-child limit and mixed …
b171ef7 
…date-of-birth tests

- The route variable's docs now warn that setting it for some people gives
  everyone else false, and point to date_of_birth for placing one person.
  They also state that the rule departs from the 6 October reading that
  is_SP_age uses.
- YAML: a 2025-26 case where the 16-year-old ranks first under the
  two-child limit and the youngest child loses the element (GBP 7,581.72),
  and a case mixing a person with date_of_birth and one without (both in
  the route). The second kills a mutant that reads the raw date_of_birth
  input instead of birth_day.
- means_test_income_members.yaml: the 17-year-old case's name says why they
  are outside the route.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis
Merge remote-tracking branch 'origin/main' into uc-pc-qyp-sixteen-route
addd127
@MaxGhenis
Merge remote-tracking branch 'origin/main' into uc-pc-qyp-sixteen-route
9d2fadb
@MaxGhenis

MaxGhenis commented Oct 22, 2026

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UK hub takeover for the Budget fix sprint (Max, 21 Oct). The owner session local_1b6fef51 has been idle since mid-October. The hub woke it on 21 Oct at 23:58Z, and it did not start. To land this before the Budget model locks (the first pe-uk release cut by about 12:00Z Thu 22 Oct), the hub has taken it over as build 20261021-211254-sprint-2300-2302, which merges main, re-tests, pushes as a fast-forward and marks it ready. The hub then reviews it and lands it through the merge queue.

If the owner session wakes, please don't push to this branch; comment here instead, so there's only one writer.

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@MaxGhenis

MaxGhenis commented Oct 22, 2026

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UK hub: takeover withdrawn. The owner session has been woken (22 Oct 01:25Z) and is finishing this PR itself, so the hub's build is cancelled. One writer: the owner session.

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MaxGhenis and others added 16 commits October 21, 2026 21:18
@MaxGhenis
Merge remote-tracking branch 'origin/main' into uc-pc-qyp-sixteen-route
0b0d764 
# Conflicts:
#	policyengine_uk/tests/test_legacy_award_readers_properties.py
@MaxGhenis @claude
Merge origin/main into means-tests-dependants-income
78a8cca 
Main has moved the tax credit member mask into tax_credits_current_year_income
and, through #2078, means-tests the Council Tax Reduction applicant and
partner. Both conflicts take main's code and re-apply this PR's change
where the masks now live: the tax credit income counts the claimants
alone, and the CTR income the applicant and partner alone, dropping the
family's children and young persons that #2078 still counted.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis @claude
Count an apprentice still on a course as not having ceased full-time …
3737d29 
…education

Review round 2 of #2301: the formula took apprenticeship as ceasing
education, so a 16-year-old apprentice still on a college course and
working 24 hours or more lost the reg. 4 period. Education received by
virtue of employment is left out of the first condition (reg.
5(3)(a)(ii)), which reg. 4(2) lifts; reg. 5(5) counts a course at a
school or college without that exclusion, so the apprentice has not
"ceased to receive full-time education" and the reg. 5(4)(a) bar does
not apply. The property oracle had the same assumption and is fixed with
it. YAML Case 5 now expects the apprentice on a course to qualify (£3,455);
new Case 17 keeps an apprentice who has left every course out.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis @claude
Assert the UC benefit cap single rate by its name after #2089
16b5c56 
#2089 replaced the shared is_benefit_cap_single_claimant_rate with
is_uc_benefit_cap_single_claimant_rate and its Housing Benefit counterpart.
The lone-parent case asserts the UC rate, which is still false: the
16-year-old outside education is a qualifying young person the claimant is
responsible for.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis @claude
Document and test crossed terminal-date overrides
2932030 
Review round 2 of #2300: a programme-level terminal-date variable set for
one person gives everyone else its default (true), not their date fact, so
a student whose date fact was set false became eligible again. No default
can keep the formula for people left unset, so the two programme variables
now say so and tell users setting both to set the programme variable for
everyone whose status matters. Invariant 5 is qualified, and a crossed test
shows both the hazard and the documented use, for each programme.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis @claude
Merge origin/means-tests-dependants-income into cb-qyp-school-leaver-…
91e963d 
…routes

Brings in #2387 at 78a8cca, which carries main. The one conflict, the
legacy readers property test, takes #2279's current version: this PR's
own commits do not touch it.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis @claude
Merge origin/uc-pc-qyp-sixteen-route into cb-qyp-school-leaver-routes
6b05191 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis @claude
Let a school-leaver's DLA and AFIP lift the Housing Benefit cap
2f0f15a 
After main's benefit cap work, two cases asserted that a 16-year-old who
has left education is not a Housing Benefit young person, so their DLA or
armed forces independence payment does not lift the cap, and the
exemption's docstring named this PR's issue (#2287) as the gap. Under reg.
4 they are a Child Benefit qualifying young person until the 31 August
after their 16th birthday, and so a Housing Benefit young person (HB Regs
2006 reg. 19), whose benefit lifts the cap (reg. 75F(1)). Both
expectations and the docstring now say so; Universal Credit's exemption
is unchanged.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis @claude
Merge origin/cb-qyp-school-leaver-routes into ctc-qyp-school-leaver-r…
4a88450 
…outes

Brings in #2299 on main with #2279 and #2387.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis @claude
Merge origin/uc-pc-qyp-sixteen-route into qyp-terminal-date-19
7ca6af1 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis @claude
Merge origin/main into qyp-terminal-date-19
bfb108d 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis @claude
Merge origin/ctc-qyp-school-leaver-routes into qyp-income-support-exc…
c98a433 
…lusion

Brings in #2301's apprentice fix and the restack on main with #2279,
apprentice-on-a-course wording and this PR's Income Support input.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis @claude
Merge origin/qyp-terminal-date-19 into qyp-income-support-exclusion
5be0ed8 
Brings in #2300's round 2 changes.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis @claude
Drop the comments that said a school leaver is not an HB young person
4772258 
Three comments still said the Housing Benefit cap exceptions leave out a
16-year-old in neither non-advanced education nor approved training
(#2287). Under reg. 4 the model's Child Benefit qualifying young person
now counts every 16-year-old for the year, whatever their education, so
the exceptions and the cap rate agree on them. Comments and documentation
only; no formula changes.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis
Merge remote-tracking branch 'origin/cb-qyp-school-leaver-routes' int…
c6e041e 
…o ctc-qyp-school-leaver-routes
@MaxGhenis
Merge remote-tracking branch 'origin/ctc-qyp-school-leaver-routes' in…
62e9317 
…to qyp-income-support-exclusion
@github-actions

github-actions Bot commented Oct 22, 2026 •
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Aggregate impact on certified data: pass

Base 582b86315c against head 3af3785370, both on enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5 (policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1, sha256 056e80fd8e91), fiscal years 2025-26 to 2031-32. Each year is a full microsimulation run on each side.

Checks: 0 broken by this change, 1 failing on both sides, 0 fixed. Moves flagged for review: 2 (thresholds in report_spec.yaml; a flag does not fail the job).

Workflow run and full report

Notes

  • In the years a figure from fewer than 10 records is suppressed (spending.disabled_students_allowance), every total containing it, and the decile incomes, are rebuilt from their other components, so no published total includes it. Those totals are marked †. A change is withheld where the two sides leave out different figures and can't be lined up.

Moves flagged for review

Measure Year Base Head Change
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children 2029-30 31.3% 31.5% +0.16pp
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children 2029-30 4,771k 4,795k +24.2k

Receipts by tax head

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Income tax +£1.8m +£1.8m +£1.9m +£1.9m +£2.0m +£2.1m +£2.2m

Spending by benefit and service

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Child Benefit +£5.2m +£5.4m +£5.6m +£5.7m +£5.9m +£6.0m +£6.2m
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed

Caseloads

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Child Benefit +1.0k +1.0k +1.0k +1.0k +1.0k +1.0k +1.0k
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed

Government balance, each component counted once

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Government receipts, each component once +£1.8m +£1.8m +£1.9m +£1.9m +£2.0m +£2.1m +£2.2m
Government spending +£5.2m † +£5.4m † +£5.6m † +£5.7m † +£5.9m † +£6.0m † +£6.2m †
Government balance, each receipt once -£3.5m † -£3.6m † -£3.7m † -£3.8m † -£3.9m † -£3.9m † -£4.0m †

Model totals

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
gov_tax +£1.8m +£1.8m +£1.9m +£1.9m +£2.0m +£2.1m +£2.2m
household_tax +£1.8m +£1.8m +£1.9m +£1.9m +£2.0m +£2.1m +£2.2m
pre_budget_change_household_tax +£1.8m +£1.8m +£1.9m +£1.9m +£2.0m +£2.1m +£2.2m
gov_spending +£5.2m † +£5.4m † +£5.6m † +£5.7m † +£5.9m † +£6.0m † +£6.2m †
household_benefits +£5.2m † +£5.4m † +£5.6m † +£5.7m † +£5.9m † +£6.0m † +£6.2m †
gov_balance -£3.5m † -£3.6m † -£3.7m † -£3.8m † -£3.9m † -£3.9m † -£4.0m †

Household income totals

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Household net income +£3.5m † +£3.6m † +£3.7m † +£3.8m † +£3.9m † +£3.9m † +£4.0m †
Household net income (HBAI definition) +£3.5m +£3.6m +£3.7m +£3.8m +£3.9m +£3.9m +£4.0m

Poverty rates

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone -0.01pp -0.00pp -0.00pp -0.00pp -0.00pp -0.00pp 0
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children -0.01pp -0.00pp -0.00pp -0.00pp -0.00pp -0.00pp 0
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults -0.01pp -0.00pp -0.00pp -0.00pp -0.00pp -0.00pp 0
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone 0 -0.01pp 0 0 0 0 0
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children 0 -0.01pp 0 0 0 0 0
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 0 -0.01pp 0 0 0 0 0
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone 0 -0.01pp -0.01pp -0.01pp -0.01pp -0.01pp -0.01pp
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children 0 -0.01pp -0.01pp -0.01pp -0.01pp -0.01pp -0.01pp
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 0 -0.01pp -0.01pp -0.01pp -0.01pp -0.01pp -0.01pp
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone 0 0 0 0 +0.06pp +0.01pp -0.01pp
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children 0 0 0 0 +0.16pp 0 -0.01pp
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 0 0 0 0 +0.02pp +0.01pp -0.01pp
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 0 0 0 0 +0.04pp +0.00pp 0

People in poverty

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone -4.7k -203 -203 -204 -205 -206 0
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children -1.9k -81 -81 -82 -82 -82 0
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults -2.8k -122 -122 -122 -123 -124 0
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone 0 -4.5k 0 0 0 0 0
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children 0 -1.8k 0 0 0 0 0
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 0 -2.7k 0 0 0 0 0
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone 0 -4.5k -4.5k -4.5k -4.6k -4.6k -4.8k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children 0 -1.8k -1.8k -1.8k -1.8k -1.8k -1.9k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 0 -2.7k -2.7k -2.7k -2.7k -2.7k -2.9k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone 0 0 0 0 +39.6k +3.8k -4.6k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children 0 0 0 0 +24.2k 0 -1.8k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 0 0 0 0 +11.0k +3.6k -2.8k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 0 0 0 0 +4.4k +222 0

Inequality

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Gini coefficient, equivalised HBAI income before housing costs -0.0000 -0.0000 -0.0000 -0.0000 -0.0000 -0.0000 -0.0000

Mean household net income in each side's own deciles

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household +£0.14 † +£0.14 † +£0.14 † +£0.14 † +£0.15 † +£0.15 † +£0.15 †
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household +£0.29 † +£0.29 † +£0.29 † +£0.30 † +£0.31 † +£0.31 † +£0.32 †
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household +£0.46 † +£0.48 † +£0.49 † +£0.51 † +£0.51 † +£0.52 † +£0.54 †
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household +£0.09 † +£0.09 † +£0.10 † +£0.10 † +£0.10 † +£0.10 † +£0.09 †
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household -£3.88 † -£6.13 † -£4.09 † -£4.08 † -£0.29 † -£2.92 † -£4.50 †
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household +£3.05 † +£22 † +£3.20 † +£3.30 † +£2.00 † +£4.96 † +£3.38 †
Decile 9: mean household_net_income per household +£0.00 † +£0.00 † +£0.00 † +£0.00 † +£0.00 † +£0.00 † +£0.00 †

Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance)

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp 0 +£0 -£0 -£0 -£0 +£0 0
Raise higher rate by 1pp +£0 -£0 +£1 +£0 +£2 +£0 -£1
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year +£0 -£0 +£0 0 0 +£0 -£1
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child -£1.5m -£1.4m -£1.3m -£1.3m -£1.2m -£1.1m -£1.0m
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20% -£1.6m -£1.6m -£1.7m -£1.7m -£2.1m -£2.1m -£2.2m
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10% +£0 -£0 -£0 -£1 +£0 +£0 -£1
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp +£8 -£0 +£0 -£0 +£1 +£0 -£1
Raise additional rate by 3pp +£0 -£0 -£0 -£0 0 +£0 0
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10% -£1 -£0 -£1 -£0 +£1 +£0 0
Raise the State Pension by 10% +£0 0 0 0 -£0 0 -£0

Standard reforms: change in each reform's target

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp: change in income_tax 0 0 +£0 0 0 0 0
Raise higher rate by 1pp: change in income_tax +£0 0 +£0 0 -£0 +£0 0
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year: change in income_tax 0 0 +£0 0 -£0 0 -£0
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child: change in child_benefit +£1.7m +£1.6m +£1.5m +£1.4m +£1.4m +£1.3m +£1.2m
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%: change in universal_credit +£1.6m +£1.6m +£1.7m +£1.7m +£2.1m +£2.1m +£2.2m
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax 0 +£0 +£0 0 0 0 0

Household net income by decile

Mean change in household net income per household, and as a share of the decile's base income; households stay in the base run's deciles.

Base decile 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Decile 1 fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change
Decile 2 fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change
Decile 3 fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change
Decile 4 fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change
Decile 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Decile 6 fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change
Decile 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Decile 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Decile 9 fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change
Decile 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
all 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Year People gaining over £1 People losing over £1
2025-26 0.0% 0.0%
2026-27 0.0% 0.0%
2027-28 0.0% 0.0%
2028-29 0.0% 0.0%
2029-30 0.0% 0.0%
2030-31 0.0% 0.0%
2031-32 0.0% 0.0%

No change in any year: components the model counts twice; population.

Checks failing on both base and head (1)
  • VAT is never negative (sign:vat): 2025-26: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-54,797,972 in total; 2026-27: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-56,271,349 in total; 2027-28: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-57,609,146 in total
Counted-once check

Each of 84 components was raised by £1 per unit in 2026-27, and every head of its totals was read household by household: its own head must rise by exactly £1, no other tax head may move, no other benefit may rise, and the model's own total must move by what its heads moved. A head that breaks a rule is measured again twice: with every other head held at its baseline value, and with every other head held at its value after the first £1 while the component rises again. It fails where either still shows the response. 0 failed; 0 were skipped.

Provenance
Side Commit Runtime Environment hash Partition hash Time
base main 582b86315c uk 2.146.1 (files 792e7aaf1a15), core 3.33.2, py 3.13.16 aarch64 5d40da9d9749 f210f83d5be4 1513.28s
head #2302 merged into main 3af3785370 uk 2.146.1 (files 375f5892ab21), core 3.33.2, py 3.13.16 aarch64 5d40da9d9749 f210f83d5be4 1569.39s

Dataset: hf://policyengine/policyengine-uk-data-private/enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5@2526edbbb687a3b54dbb11272e5389e4b62d2ac2, sha256 056e80fd8e9151d78f432a25cde863340baee81304c6216a37fb575ce8563784 (verified on both sides), policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1.

Receipts by tax head: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Income tax £299.29bn £319.01bn £336.47bn £351.62bn £367.17bn £385.29bn £403.60bn
National Insurance (employee and self-employed) £52.58bn £54.94bn £56.75bn £58.48bn £60.62bn £62.57bn £65.03bn
National Insurance (employer) £152.64bn £159.18bn £164.14bn £168.73bn £176.11bn £181.72bn £188.90bn
Employer NI change borne by capital £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Employer NI change borne by consumers £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Capital gains tax £12.62bn £13.06bn £13.55bn £14.04bn £14.54bn £15.09bn £15.65bn
Student loan repayments £7.83bn £8.12bn £8.35bn £8.56bn £8.79bn £9.04bn £9.38bn
VAT £253.71bn £260.53bn £266.72bn £273.14bn £279.83bn £286.71bn £293.71bn
Change in VAT from its baseline £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
VAT on private school fees £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Fuel duties £24.53bn £24.64bn £26.64bn £26.69bn £26.42bn £25.76bn £26.35bn
Alcohol duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Tobacco duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Vehicle excise duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
TV licence fee £4.28bn £4.43bn £4.44bn £4.46bn £4.48bn £4.51bn £4.53bn
Council tax £49.56bn £52.45bn £55.78bn £59.39bn £62.98bn £66.74bn £70.70bn
High value council tax surcharge £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.48bn £0.49bn £0.51bn £0.52bn
Northern Ireland domestic rates £0.55bn £0.58bn £0.61bn £0.63bn £0.67bn £0.70bn £0.73bn
Business rates £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn
Stamp duty land tax (own purchases, and corporate until the £10.06bn £10.56bn £10.98bn £11.40bn £11.81bn £12.23bn £12.64bn
Land transaction tax (Wales) £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Land and buildings transaction tax (Scotland) £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn
Unspecified tax change borne by capital £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Unspecified tax change borne by consumers £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Wealth tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Wealth tax excluding the main residence £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Land value tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Carbon tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Spending by benefit and service: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
State Pension £122.15bn £126.64bn £127.57bn £129.47bn £133.29bn £137.24bn £141.32bn
Pension Credit £6.68bn £7.07bn £7.06bn £7.13bn £7.26bn £7.39bn £7.49bn
Winter Fuel Payment £1.70bn £1.68bn £1.59bn £1.58bn £1.57bn £1.55bn £1.52bn
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland) £0.19bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.21bn £0.21bn £0.22bn £0.22bn
Universal Credit £78.81bn £83.11bn £84.93bn £86.69bn £87.61bn £89.03bn £90.35bn
Housing Benefit £8.59bn £8.93bn £9.19bn £9.34bn £9.61bn £9.87bn £10.15bn
Council Tax Reduction £1.99bn £2.03bn £2.08bn £2.13bn £2.18bn £2.23bn £2.29bn
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related) £2.12bn £2.18bn £2.23bn £2.28bn £2.33bn £2.39bn £2.45bn
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based) £5.22bn £5.36bn £5.49bn £5.62bn £5.76bn £5.90bn £6.04bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based) £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based) £0.29bn £0.30bn £0.30bn £0.31bn £0.32bn £0.33bn £0.33bn
Income Support £0.12bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Working Tax Credit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Child Tax Credit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Incapacity Benefit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Personal Independence Payment £27.05bn £28.19bn £28.94bn £29.64bn £30.37bn £31.11bn £31.87bn
Disability Living Allowance £7.52bn £7.83bn £8.04bn £8.24bn £8.44bn £8.65bn £8.86bn
Attendance Allowance £8.71bn £9.08bn £9.32bn £9.55bn £9.78bn £10.02bn £10.26bn
Carer's Allowance £4.50bn £4.69bn £4.81bn £4.93bn £5.05bn £5.17bn £5.29bn
Carer Support Payment (Scotland) £0.31bn £0.32bn £0.33bn £0.34bn £0.35bn £0.36bn £0.36bn
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland) £0.00bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn
Severe Disablement Allowance £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit £0.51bn £0.52bn £0.53bn £0.54bn £0.56bn £0.57bn £0.59bn
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme £0.61bn £0.62bn £0.64bn £0.65bn £0.67bn £0.69bn £0.70bn
War Widow's or Widower's Pension £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Child Benefit £16.24bn £16.91bn £17.33bn £17.74bn £18.17bn £18.61bn £19.05bn
Scottish Child Payment £0.50bn £0.52bn £0.53bn £0.55bn £0.56bn £0.57bn £0.58bn
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual) £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Healthy Start vouchers £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn
Maternity Allowance £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Statutory Maternity Pay £3.32bn £3.41bn £3.49bn £3.57bn £3.66bn £3.75bn £3.84bn
Statutory Paternity Pay £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Statutory Sick Pay £1.13bn £1.16bn £1.19bn £1.22bn £1.25bn £1.28bn £1.31bn
Sure Start Maternity Grant £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn
Bereavement Support Payment £0.67bn £0.69bn £0.70bn £0.72bn £0.74bn £0.76bn £0.78bn
Tax-Free Childcare £0.55bn £0.56bn £0.57bn £0.58bn £0.60bn £0.61bn £0.59bn
Extended childcare entitlement £2.66bn £3.14bn £3.23bn £3.30bn £3.38bn £3.47bn £3.55bn
Universal childcare entitlement £3.32bn £3.59bn £3.69bn £3.78bn £3.88bn £3.99bn £4.08bn
Targeted childcare entitlement £0.57bn £0.60bn £0.62bn £0.63bn £0.65bn £0.66bn £0.67bn
Care to Learn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Childcare Grant £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Parents' Learning Allowance £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn
Adult Dependants' Grant £0.06bn £0.06bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn
Travel Grant £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
NHS spending £204.68bn £205.46bn £206.22bn £207.04bn £207.96bn £208.89bn £209.79bn
State education spending £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn
Transport subsidy spending £25.15bn £25.25bn £25.34bn £25.44bn £25.55bn £25.67bn £25.78bn
Cost-of-living support payment £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Energy Bills Rebate £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Basic income £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Disability basic income £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Other public spending budget change £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Caseloads: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
State Pension 11,308k 11,208k 10,906k 10,812k 10,860k 10,908k 10,955k
Pension Credit 1,491k 1,489k 1,478k 1,459k 1,459k 1,457k 1,453k
Winter Fuel Payment 7,092k 7,011k 6,601k 6,517k 6,493k 6,381k 6,254k
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland) 806k 807k 807k 805k 809k 812k 816k
Universal Credit 6,371k 6,379k 6,409k 6,420k 6,395k 6,387k 6,371k
Housing Benefit 1,254k 1,252k 1,254k 1,240k 1,245k 1,247k 1,249k
Council Tax Reduction 3,186k 3,211k 3,224k 3,245k 3,264k 3,280k 3,293k
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related) 187k 188k 188k 189k 190k 190k 191k
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based) 722k 724k 727k 730k 733k 737k 740k
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based) 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based) 67k 67k 68k 68k 68k 69k 69k
Income Support 25k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Working Tax Credit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Child Tax Credit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Incapacity Benefit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Personal Independence Payment 3,581k 3,595k 3,608k 3,623k 3,639k 3,655k 3,671k
Disability Living Allowance 1,296k 1,301k 1,306k 1,311k 1,317k 1,323k 1,329k
Attendance Allowance 1,701k 1,708k 1,714k 1,721k 1,729k 1,736k 1,744k
Carer's Allowance 1,038k 1,042k 1,046k 1,050k 1,055k 1,059k 1,064k
Carer Support Payment (Scotland) 71k 72k 72k 72k 73k 73k 73k
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland) 0k 72k 72k 72k 73k 73k 73k
Severe Disablement Allowance 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit 137k 138k 139k 139k 140k 140k 141k
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme 94k 94k 94k 95k 95k 95k 96k
War Widow's or Widower's Pension 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Child Benefit 8,137k 8,166k 8,186k 8,216k 8,250k 8,283k 8,315k
Scottish Child Payment 352k 354k 355k 356k 357k 358k 357k
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual) 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Healthy Start vouchers 200k 201k 202k 203k 204k 204k 205k
Maternity Allowance 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Statutory Maternity Pay 334k 335k 336k 338k 339k 341k 342k
Statutory Paternity Pay 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Statutory Sick Pay 182k 183k 183k 184k 185k 186k 186k
Sure Start Maternity Grant 26k 26k 26k 27k 27k 27k 27k
Bereavement Support Payment 98k 98k 99k 99k 100k 100k 101k
Tax-Free Childcare 1,017k 1,028k 1,028k 1,033k 1,034k 1,038k 1,023k
Extended childcare entitlement 665k 671k 675k 677k 682k 686k 687k
Universal childcare entitlement 986k 989k 992k 997k 1,002k 1,013k 1,015k
Targeted childcare entitlement 119k 120k 120k 121k 121k 122k 121k
Care to Learn 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Childcare Grant 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Parents' Learning Allowance 98k 99k 99k 100k 100k 100k 101k
Adult Dependants' Grant 18k 18k 12k 13k 13k 13k 13k
Travel Grant 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Cost-of-living support payment 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Energy Bills Rebate 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Basic income 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Disability basic income 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Government balance, each component counted once: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Government receipts, each component once £899.38bn £939.24bn £976.19bn £1,009.39bn £1,045.66bn £1,082.61bn £1,123.48bn
Government spending £536.24bn † £550.46bn † £556.58bn † £563.62bn † £572.16bn † £581.38bn † £590.56bn †
Government balance, each receipt once £363.14bn † £388.79bn † £419.61bn † £445.77bn † £473.51bn † £501.22bn † £532.92bn †
Benefits in household_benefits but not in gov_spending £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Model totals: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
gov_tax £902.51bn £942.37bn £979.32bn £1,012.52bn £1,048.79bn £1,085.74bn £1,126.61bn
household_tax £496.17bn £522.66bn £548.45bn £570.64bn £592.85bn £617.30bn £644.01bn
pre_budget_change_household_tax £488.34bn £514.54bn £540.10bn £561.60bn £583.57bn £607.76bn £634.11bn
gov_spending £536.24bn † £550.46bn † £556.58bn † £563.62bn † £572.16bn † £581.38bn † £590.56bn †
household_benefits £536.24bn † £550.46bn † £556.58bn † £563.62bn † £572.16bn † £581.38bn † £590.56bn †
gov_balance £366.27bn † £391.92bn † £422.74bn † £448.90bn † £476.64bn † £504.35bn † £536.05bn †
Components the model counts twice: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
corporate_sdlt, counted again inside expected_sdlt £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn
Household income totals: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Household market income £1,657.06bn £1,719.25bn £1,771.68bn £1,821.99bn £1,872.88bn £1,930.99bn £2,001.98bn
Household net income £1,657.86bn † £1,706.28bn † £1,737.92bn † £1,772.03bn † £1,808.11bn † £1,849.73bn † £1,901.48bn †
Household net income (HBAI definition) £1,466.42bn £1,513.07bn £1,545.11bn £1,578.08bn £1,612.10bn £1,651.13bn £1,701.58bn
Population: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
People 69,514k 69,778k 70,036k 70,316k 70,626k 70,944k 71,249k
Benefit units 35,247k 35,381k 35,512k 35,654k 35,811k 35,972k 36,127k
Households 31,167k 31,285k 31,401k 31,526k 31,665k 31,808k 31,944k
Poverty rates: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone 15.9% 15.0% 15.5% 15.6% 15.7% 15.8% 15.8%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children 23.7% 20.9% 21.6% 21.4% 21.6% 21.8% 21.7%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 13.8% 13.4% 14.0% 14.1% 14.2% 14.3% 14.3%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 13.7% 13.2% 13.3% 13.5% 13.6% 13.7% 13.7%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone 21.1% 20.6% 21.3% 21.5% 21.9% 22.2% 22.3%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children 32.1% 30.2% 30.9% 31.1% 31.7% 32.3% 32.5%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 19.6% 19.4% 20.2% 20.4% 20.8% 21.0% 21.0%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 12.8% 12.6% 12.6% 13.1% 13.4% 13.4% 13.4%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone 16.9% 16.4% 16.4% 16.6% 16.6% 16.7% 16.7%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children 25.6% 23.5% 23.2% 23.2% 23.2% 23.2% 23.2%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 14.4% 14.4% 14.6% 14.8% 14.9% 15.0% 14.9%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 15.0% 14.9% 14.4% 14.7% 14.3% 14.3% 14.6%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone 21.7% 21.3% 21.4% 21.5% 21.7% 21.9% 22.0%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children 33.0% 31.6% 31.0% 31.1% 31.5% 31.6% 32.0%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 20.0% 20.0% 20.3% 20.4% 20.6% 20.8% 20.9%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 13.7% 13.1% 12.8% 13.0% 12.8% 12.9% 13.2%
People in poverty: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone 11,051k 10,435k 10,856k 10,959k 11,091k 11,220k 11,234k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children 3,558k 3,141k 3,261k 3,253k 3,298k 3,334k 3,335k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 5,860k 5,735k 6,068k 6,164k 6,235k 6,314k 6,321k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 1,634k 1,559k 1,527k 1,543k 1,558k 1,572k 1,579k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone 14,663k 14,362k 14,907k 15,144k 15,491k 15,755k 15,874k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children 4,809k 4,555k 4,676k 4,719k 4,835k 4,939k 4,994k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 8,333k 8,323k 8,775k 8,931k 9,122k 9,275k 9,329k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 1,521k 1,484k 1,456k 1,493k 1,533k 1,541k 1,551k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone 11,780k 11,459k 11,518k 11,656k 11,703k 11,827k 11,874k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children 3,840k 3,536k 3,504k 3,522k 3,540k 3,552k 3,563k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 6,154k 6,157k 6,353k 6,461k 6,528k 6,633k 6,625k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 1,786k 1,766k 1,661k 1,673k 1,636k 1,643k 1,686k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone 15,110k 14,866k 14,956k 15,109k 15,320k 15,517k 15,691k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children 4,948k 4,756k 4,684k 4,715k 4,795k 4,840k 4,914k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 8,531k 8,560k 8,793k 8,917k 9,065k 9,191k 9,254k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 1,631k 1,551k 1,479k 1,477k 1,460k 1,486k 1,523k
Inequality: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Gini coefficient, equivalised HBAI income before housing costs 0.3074 0.3052 0.3066 0.3072 0.3078 0.3084 0.3094
Mean household net income in each side's own deciles: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household £17,700 † £17,996 † £17,934 † £17,992 † £18,328 † £18,507 † £18,680 †
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household £28,323 † £29,102 † £28,705 † £28,983 † £29,330 † £29,734 † £30,318 †
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household £34,630 † £35,808 † £36,446 † £37,019 † £37,221 † £37,812 † £38,493 †
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household £39,334 † £40,803 † £41,758 † £42,693 † £43,435 † £44,025 † £44,926 †
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household £44,856 † £46,150 † £47,077 † £47,439 † £48,027 † £49,181 † £50,036 †
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household £47,926 † £49,328 † £50,286 † £51,170 † £52,167 † £52,950 † £54,200 †
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household £56,322 † £57,590 † £58,476 † £59,426 † £60,151 † £61,626 † £62,896 †
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household £69,267 † £70,356 † £71,672 † £72,810 † £74,351 † £75,797 † £77,578 †
Decile 9: mean household_net_income per household £79,648 † £81,992 † £83,192 † £84,486 † £86,056 † £87,570 † £90,645 †
Decile 10: mean household_net_income per household £117,618 † £120,489 † £122,421 † £124,552 † £126,802 † £129,073 † £131,887 †
Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance): head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp £6.21bn £6.50bn £6.70bn £6.90bn £7.11bn £7.34bn £7.62bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp £3.54bn £3.82bn £4.05bn £4.27bn £4.49bn £4.76bn £4.96bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year £-3.83bn £-3.96bn £-4.03bn £-4.10bn £-4.19bn £-4.29bn £-2.02bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child £-2.00bn £-1.76bn £-1.64bn £-1.54bn £-1.44bn £-1.34bn £-1.24bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20% £-20.54bn £-21.10bn £-21.45bn £-21.88bn £-21.96bn £-22.33bn £-22.79bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10% £11.06bn £11.51bn £11.83bn £12.14bn £12.47bn £12.81bn £13.29bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp £25.01bn £25.68bn £26.29bn £26.92bn £27.58bn £28.26bn £28.95bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp £2.83bn £3.07bn £3.27bn £3.47bn £3.67bn £3.91bn £4.23bn
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10% £-3.04bn £-3.17bn £-3.24bn £-3.32bn £-3.37bn £-3.42bn £-3.47bn
Raise the State Pension by 10% £-7.81bn £-8.07bn £-7.99bn £-8.11bn £-8.36bn £-8.66bn £-9.02bn
Standard reforms: change in each reform's target: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp: change in income_tax £6.36bn £6.65bn £6.86bn £7.07bn £7.28bn £7.52bn £7.80bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp: change in income_tax £3.55bn £3.83bn £4.06bn £4.28bn £4.50bn £4.77bn £4.97bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year: change in income_tax £-3.96bn £-4.10bn £-4.19bn £-4.26bn £-4.36bn £-4.47bn £-1.77bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child: change in child_benefit £2.34bn £2.15bn £2.03bn £1.92bn £1.82bn £1.71bn £1.59bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%: change in universal_credit £20.53bn £21.09bn £21.44bn £21.87bn £21.95bn £22.32bn £22.78bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%: change in national_insurance £11.33bn £11.79bn £12.13bn £12.44bn £12.78bn £13.13bn £13.62bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp: change in vat £25.01bn £25.68bn £26.29bn £26.92bn £27.58bn £28.26bn £28.95bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax £2.83bn £3.07bn £3.27bn £3.47bn £3.67bn £3.91bn £4.23bn
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%: change in universal_credit £3.04bn £3.17bn £3.25bn £3.32bn £3.37bn £3.43bn £3.47bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%: change in state_pension £10.72bn £11.23bn £11.37bn £11.62bn £12.08bn £12.54bn £13.07bn

MaxGhenis and others added 7 commits October 21, 2026 23:32
@MaxGhenis @claude
Place other_members_with_awards outside the reg 5(1)(a) route too
560005c 
#2549 added other_members_with_awards ("As other_members") for the young
singles and working parents properties. It draws a 16-60-year-old outside
education, but unlike other_members it did not set
is_before_first_september_following_16th_birthday false. A drawn
16-year-old was therefore a UC qualifying young person, so the family
changed. In the shrunk case, a single 19-year-old in Wales with GBP 12,000
earnings, housing_benefit_applicable_income went from GBP 11,740 to 0, and
the two properties failed.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis
Merge remote-tracking branch 'origin/uc-pc-qyp-sixteen-route' into qy…
c710718 
…p-terminal-date-19
@MaxGhenis @claude
Count a 16-year-old school leaver in the benefit cap property oracle
8a5980c 
reference_specified_benefit counted the school-leaver role as a young
person for Universal Credit only, matching the old model, where the
Child Benefit qualifying young person (and so Housing Benefit's young
person, reg. 19) had no route for a 16-year-old who has left education.
Under reg. 4 they are one for the year, so their DLA, PIP, AFIP or carer
benefit lifts the Housing Benefit cap too, as the formula now gives.
Neither scheme counts one receiving benefits in their own right.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis
Merge remote-tracking branch 'origin/uc-pc-qyp-sixteen-route' into cb…
e53c1eb 
…-qyp-school-leaver-routes
@MaxGhenis
Merge remote-tracking branch 'origin/cb-qyp-school-leaver-routes' int…
cf381c1 
…o ctc-qyp-school-leaver-routes
@MaxGhenis
Merge remote-tracking branch 'origin/ctc-qyp-school-leaver-routes' in…
c51de17 
…to qyp-income-support-exclusion
@MaxGhenis
Merge remote-tracking branch 'origin/qyp-terminal-date-19' into qyp-i…
98a4739 
…ncome-support-exclusion
This was referenced Oct 22, 2026
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@MaxGhenis

MaxGhenis commented Oct 22, 2026

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Parked until after the 28 October Budget under the UK hub's Budget triage (04:10Z 22 Oct: the QYP set is not Budget-material). Status at 98a4739:

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Income Support in own right does not end qualifying young person status for Pension Credit, Child Benefit or Child Tax Credit

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@MaxGhenis