Add the Child Tax Credit qualifying young person period after leaving education by MaxGhenis · Pull Request #2301 · PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk

MaxGhenis · 2026-10-11T12:45:10Z

Stacked on #2299, #2387 and #2279. Do not merge before them. This PR builds on #2299's Child Benefit routes (which carry #2387) and #2279's date fact. Until they merge, the diff here also shows their commits. This PR's own commits:

git log -p --no-merges origin/ctc-qyp-school-leaver-routes ^origin/main ^origin/cb-qyp-school-leaver-routes

Summary

is_qualifying_young_person_for_child_tax_credit modelled only the education and training condition (Child Tax Credit Regulations 2002 reg. 5(3)(a) and (ab)). Two rules for a young person who has left education were missing:

Rule	Who	How the model reads it
Reg. 4	from the 16th birthday until the 31 August that next follows, with no education condition	`is_before_first_september_following_16th_birthday` (from #2279)
Reg. 5(3)(b)	under 18, for 20 weeks after leaving, while registered for work or training with a qualifying body	new input `is_in_child_tax_credit_extension_period`, false by default

The second condition (reg. 5(4)) applies to both. A young person who has left education or training and works 24 hours a week or more qualifies through neither.

Against its base (the item 1 branch at 2575e9e, which carries main 4d80b29 and #2279), 2024-25, YAML cases run as plain simulations on both (scratch/probe_C_base_vs_branch.txt):

Case	Variable	Base	This PR
1: parent 40, 16-year-old who has left school	young person's `is_qualifying_young_person_for_child_tax_credit`	false	true
	`CTC_child_element`	£0	£3,455
2: as 1, working 24 hours	young person's CTC QYP status	false	false (reg. 5(4)(a))
	young person's Child Benefit QYP status	true	true
11: 17-year-old in the 20 weeks	`CTC_child_element`	£0	£3,455

It changes years up to 2024-25: tax credits ended on 5 April 2025. This is a follow-up from #2279. It needs #2285, which stops a young person who heads their own benefit unit being their own qualifying young person (QYP).

The law

Child Tax Credit Regulations 2002:

Reg. 4: "(1) Subject to paragraph (1A), a person who attains the age of sixteen is a qualifying young person from the date on which that person attained that age until 31st August which next follows that date. (1A) A person who attains the age of sixteen on 31st August is a qualifying young person from the date on which that person attained that age. (2) Paragraph (1) is subject to regulation 5 but as if there were no requirement to satisfy the first condition specified in paragraph (3) of that regulation. (2A) Paragraph (1A) is subject to regulation 5."
Reg. 5(3)(b): the first condition is also met by a person "under the age of eighteen years and— (i) he ceased to receive full-time education or to undertake approved training (the date of that event being referred to as “the relevant leaving date”); (ii) within 3 months of the relevant leaving date, he has notified the Board [...] that he is registered for work or training with a qualifying body, and (iii) not more than 20 weeks has elapsed since the relevant leaving date."
Reg. 5(4): "The second condition is that the period in question is not (and does not include)— (a) a week in which he (having ceased to receive full-time education or approved training) becomes engaged in remunerative work [...] (c) a period in respect of which that person receives income support, income-related employment and support allowance [...], income-based jobseeker's allowance [...] or universal credit".
Reg. 2(1): "“remunerative work” means work which is— (a) done for payment or in expectation of payment, (b) undertaken for not less than 24 hours a week [...]".

HMRC's TCTM02220, which the entry-condition variable already cites, says: "There is no requirement for the qualifying young person to satisfy the condition of being in full-time non-advanced education or approved training up to and including 31 August following their 16th birthday. However, during this period, they have to satisfy the other conditions relating to qualifying young people."

Change

is_qualifying_young_person_for_child_tax_credit is now: aged 16 to 19, not receiving benefits in their own right (reg. 5(4)(c)), and any of

in education or training begun before 19 (reg. 5(3)(a), (ab), (3A); unchanged);
before the 31 August after the 16th birthday (reg. 4), unless the person has ceased full-time education or approved training and is in remunerative work (reg. 4(2) lifts the first condition only; reg. 5(4)(a));
under 18, having ceased, not in remunerative work, in the 20 weeks (reg. 5(3)(b), 5(4)(a)).

New: is_in_child_tax_credit_extension_period (input), is_in_remunerative_work_for_child_tax_credit (average weekly hours of 24 or more), and the parameters remunerative_work_hours and extension_period_age_limit.

Having ceased. Reg. 5(4)(a) applies to a person "having ceased to receive full-time education or approved training", so a student's hours do not matter (YAML Case 4). Full-time education at a school or college counts at any level (reg. 5(5)): a 16-year-old in full-time advanced education has not ceased it, so works 24 hours and keeps the reg. 4 period (YAML Case 15), although advanced education fails the first condition. An apprentice still on a course has not ceased either (Case 5): education received by virtue of employment is left out of the first condition (reg. 5(3)(a)(ii)), which reg. 4(2) lifts, and reg. 5(5) counts a course at a school or college without that exclusion. An apprentice who has left every course has ceased (Case 17). This is a reading of reg. 5(4)(a), which does not say whether an employment-linked course is "full-time education"; the round 2 review of this PR proposed it, and it follows the text that is there. It matters for 2024-25 and earlier only, since tax credits ended in April 2025. The review of this PR found that a first version took failing the non-advanced test as having ceased; the property oracle had the same mistake, and both are fixed.

Not modelled: interruptions (reg. 5(7)); the Working Tax Credit rules reg. 2(1) points to for counting hours.

The annual approximation, and a 16th birthday on 31 August

Reg. 4 reads #2279's date fact: a year counts if it starts (6 April) before the end of the period. That is every 16-year-old (age on 6 October) and a 17-year-old born from 1 September to 6 October.

Reg. 4(1A) gives a 16th birthday on 31 August no period without education. Its effect is to stop the period running to the next year's 31 August. The date fact already ends that person's period in the year of the birthday, so no separate exclusion is needed. That year still counts, as the one in which they are a child until 30 August (YAML Case 8), and the year after does not (Case 7). An exclusion for 31 August birthdays was written and removed: it would have dropped a year in which the person is a child for nearly five months.

Invariants

Reg. 4 against calendar arithmetic that shares no code with the model: a person outside education, not working, is a QYP for a year exactly when they are 16 to 19 on 6 October and some of the year falls on or before the last day they are a child or in the reg. 4 period (30 August for a 16th birthday on 31 August).
Over every combination of age, education, training, apprenticeship, own-right benefits, the age the course began, the two leaver facts and hours: the status is the education condition; or the reg. 4 period, unless the person has ceased education or training and is in remunerative work; or the 20 weeks for a person under 18 who has ceased and is not in remunerative work; within ages 16 to 19 and without own-right benefits. So remunerative work ends both routes for a person who has ceased and never a student's status, an advanced student keeps the reg. 4 period whatever their hours, the 20 weeks end at 18 and never reach a student whose course began at 19, and with the leaver facts off the status is the education condition's alone, as before.
Switching a leaver fact on never removes the status.
The benefit unit's child or QYP is a child or QYP who is not its claimant or partner and not looked after.

Tests

Properties, new test_child_tax_credit_school_leaver_routes_properties.py:
- invariant 1 for every date of birth from 2004 to 2009 (2,192 people, ages 14 to 20 on 6 October 2024), with the 31 August, 1 September and 6/7 October edges asserted, and again on Hypothesis-drawn dates of birth and years;
- invariants 2 to 4 over 12,288 combinations (the age the course began is drawn too: 17, or a course begun at 19);
- invariants 2 and 4 on generated benefit units, where a claimant can be a QYP by status.
Oracle, test_child_and_adult_definitions_properties.py: Child Tax Credit joins the other three programmes in the 16-year-old route, for a person who has left education.
YAML, new child_tax_credit_school_leaver_routes.yaml, 17 cases hand-computed (2024-25; child element £3,455):

Case	Facts	Expected
1	parent 40, 16-year-old who has left school	QYP; one child element, £3,455
2	as 1, working 24 hours	not a QYP (reg. 5(4)(a)); Child Benefit still counts them
3	as 1, working 23 hours	QYP
4	16 at school, working 24 hours	QYP: the bar is for a person "having ceased"
5	16-year-old apprentice still on a college course, 30 hours	QYP: not ceased education (reg. 5(4)(a), 5(5)); £3,455
6	born 15 September 2007 (17 on 6 October)	the period runs to 31 August 2024: QYP
7	born 31 August 2007	no period to the next 31 August: not a QYP
8	born 31 August 2008	a child until 30 August 2024: the year counts
9	16, receiving a benefit in own right	not a QYP (reg. 5(4)(c))
10	17, left school	not a QYP by default
11	17, in the 20 weeks	QYP (reg. 5(3)(b))
12	as 11, working 24 hours	not a QYP
13	18, extension input set	not a QYP
14	lone 16-year-old who has left school	a QYP by status, not their own
15	16, full-time advanced education, 24 hours	QYP: reg. 4(2) lifts the first condition, and they have not ceased education (reg. 5(5)); £3,455
16	17, the same student, outside the reg. 4 period	not a QYP; £0
17	16, apprentice no longer on any course, 30 hours	not a QYP: ceased and in remunerative work; £0

Mutation checks, each applied alone in a copy of the branch (YAML cases and property tests that fail):

Mutation	YAML cases	Property tests
Reg. 4 dropped	1, 3, 6, 8, 14	all four
Reg. 5(3)(b) dropped	11	the grid; the generated units
No remunerative work bar for a leaver	2, 5, 12	the grid; the generated units
Remunerative work bars a student too	4	the grid; the generated units
The 20 weeks without the under-18 limit	13	the grid
Leaver routes open to a student whose course began at 19	none	the grid

Round 2 mutations at 33fa9ee (mutation/prC_r2.txt):

Mutation	YAML cases	Property tests
Failing the non-advanced test counts as having ceased (the round 1 bug)	15	the grid; the generated units
The 20 weeks open to a person who has not ceased	none	the grid
Remunerative work bars the reg. 4 period for everyone	15	the grid; the generated units

The rows above them were run at earlier heads, before the formula was restructured. The last of those first passed every test. The grid fixed the age the course began at 17, so it never drew a student who fails reg. 5(3A); it now draws a course begun at 19 as well. No YAML case can catch it without setting the 16th-birthday fact by hand for a 19-year-old: with the fact computed from the date of birth, a student who fails the entry condition is 19, the fact is false and the 20 weeks have ended, so the mutated and the real formula agree.

Run locally at 33fa9ee:

policyengine-core test on the 8 YAML files the branch changes against main (the PRs below it included): 87 passed.
pytest on the 7 Python test files it changes against main: 47 passed.
The whole stack at 62e9317 (Count only the claimant's and partner's income in the legacy means tests #2387, Count 16-year-olds outside education as UC and Pension Credit qualifying young persons until the 1 September after their 16th birthday #2279 and the Child Benefit, CTC, terminal-date and Income Support follow-ups): policyengine-core test on the 248 YAML files that mention these programmes, 2,685 passed; pytest on the 135 Python test files that mention them, 1,930 passed, 1 xfailed and 6 failed. Four were the benefit cap property oracle (fixed on Add the Child Benefit qualifying young person routes for young people who have left education #2299, 8a5980c) and two a test generator on Count 16-year-olds outside education as UC and Pension Credit qualifying young persons until the 1 September after their 16th birthday #2279 (fixed there, 560005c); both files pass at End the Pension Credit, Child Benefit and CTC qualifying young person status for Income Support in own right #2302's head 98a4739 (64 passed).
ruff format --check and ruff check on policyengine_uk: clean.

The full suites run in CI.

Microsimulation impact

Aggregate impact report (CI)

The report runs main a8b2848 against this PR merged into it (c6e041e) on the certified Enhanced FRS 2024-25 (policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1), one full run per side for each year 2025-26 to 2031-32. Result: pass, 0 checks broken, 2 moves flagged. It is identical, line for line, to #2299's report, which this PR carries with #2279 and #2387: this PR's own change moves nothing from 2025-26, the first year the report runs, as tax credits ended in April 2025. The carried figures are Child Benefit +£5.2m to +£6.2m a year, the two relative poverty flags (explained in #2299: the poverty line moves, not anyone's income), and #2279's taper costing line. Commits since then change tests only (the benefit cap oracle and #2279's test generator), so the report carries over to the current head.

Local run, 2024-25

The one year with tax credits in payment, on the same certified file (sha256 056e80fd8e91), exact comparison of every record. Base: #2299's head 4772258 (with main a8b2848, #2279 and #2387), so the figures are this PR's alone. Branch: c6e041e. Outputs: impact/prC_r3/ in the session folder.

No household's income changes, and no tax credit award changes.

81 records (74,446 weighted people) become CTC qualifying young persons by status. 22 records (5,275 weighted), all aged 16 or 17, are in a family whose claimant now counts them. As for Child Benefit, most are alone in their own benefit unit (FRS benefit units keep some qualifying young persons apart from the adults responsible for them policyengine-uk-data#562).
CTC_child_element rises for those 22 benefit units: +£18.2m. None of them claims tax credits (is_CTC_eligible false and child_tax_credit £0 before and after), so child_tax_credit, tax_credits, net income and poverty are identical in every record.
tax_credits_applicable_income is identical too: Count only the claimant's and partner's income in the legacy means tests #2387 stops a young person's own income counting. (On the round 1 base, without Count only the claimant's and partner's income in the legacy means tests #2387, it rose by £17,171.75 in 4 of those units, the newly counted young person's own miscellaneous_income; impact/prC_r1/income_probe.txt.)

Earlier local runs on uk-data 1.58.0 (impact/prC_r2/, at 33fa9ee, before the apprentice change) found the same pattern for 2024-25 to 2030-31: a higher child element and no award.

Reproducer: policyengine_uk/tests/test_child_tax_credit_school_leaver_routes_properties.py::test_status_is_the_first_condition_or_a_leaver_fact_under_the_second

axiom: CTC Regs 2002 reg 4, reg 5(3)(b) and reg 5(4)(a) TheAxiomFoundation/rulespec-uk#361 queued (addendum; blocker stated there: the rows are in an unreleased ingest, axiom-corpus#765, and a billed encoder run needs approval)

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

…ducation condition UC Regs 2013 reg. 5(1)(a) and SPC Regs 2002 reg. 4A(1)(a) make a person who has reached 16 a qualifying young person up to the 1 September following their 16th birthday, whatever their education. The model encoded only the education route, so a 16-year-old outside education was not a UC or PC qualifying young person. is_before_first_september_following_16th_birthday places that date from the date of birth and counts the route for a year that starts (6 April) before it: every annual age of 16, and a 17-year-old born from 1 September to 6 October. Both QYP variables OR it with the education route, under the same age band and own-right benefits exclusion. Tests: YAML cases hand-computed from the regulations (flags, date edges, UC child element and work allowance, PC child addition), the property-test oracle, a calendar differential over every birth date in 2008-2011 and across years, and a grid test of sufficiency, monotonicity, exclusion and UC/PC agreement. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

…-qyp-school-leaver-routes

…eavers Child Benefit (General) Regulations 2006 regs 4, 5 and 7 were not modelled: is_qualifying_young_person_for_child_benefit was reg. 3 (education or training) alone, so a 16-year-old who had left school was not a qualifying young person for Child Benefit, nor a young person for Housing Benefit, the legacy benefits or Council Tax Reduction (SSCBA 1992 s.142). - Reg. 4: until the 31 August after the 16th birthday, read from is_before_first_september_following_16th_birthday. - Reg. 5: the 20-week extension period for a 16- or 17-year-old not in remunerative work, from the new input is_in_child_benefit_extension_period. - Reg. 7: until the terminal date after leaving, from the new input is_before_child_benefit_terminal_date. - Reg. 7(3): no Child Benefit for a young person who qualifies through reg. 7 alone and works 24 hours or more a week (is_child_benefit_payable_for_person); they stay a qualifying young person. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

…vers Child Tax Credit Regulations 2002 reg. 4 makes a person a qualifying young person from their 16th birthday until the 31 August that next follows, with no education condition, and reg. 5(3)(b) adds the 20 weeks after leaving for an under-18 registered for work or training. The model had only the education condition (reg. 5(3)(a), (ab)). - Reg. 4 reads is_before_first_september_following_16th_birthday. - Reg. 5(3)(b) reads the new input is_in_child_tax_credit_extension_period. - Reg. 5(4)(a): a young person who has left education or training and works 24 hours a week or more is not a qualifying young person through either. Tax credits ended on 5 April 2025, so this changes years to 2024-25. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

…school leaver A disabled 16-year-old outside education is now a young person until the 31 August after their 16th birthday (Child Benefit reg. 4; HB reg 19(1)), so HB reg 28(6) counts them. Keep the original point, that the disability age extension does not itself create young-person status, as a second case with the reg. 4 period ended. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Two property tests build a member who is outside every programme's family as a 16 to 19 year old not in education. At 16 that member is now a UC qualifying young person under reg 5(1)(a), so the family's UC gains a child element and the tests' premise no longer holds. Their generators now set is_before_first_september_following_16th_birthday false for that member. The test functions are unchanged, so Hypothesis draws the same examples. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

…-qyp-school-leaver-routes Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

…nefit reg. 4 period test_excluded_member_never_changes_is_eligibility adds a member aged 16 or over who is not in education, on the premise that they are not a qualifying young person. With reg. 4 a 16-year-old who has left education is one until the 31 August after their 16th birthday, so the generator now puts the member past that date, as #2279 does for the same reason in two other property tests. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

…-routes Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

A mutation that opened the leaver routes to a student who fails the entry condition (reg. 5(3A)) passed every test: the grid fixed the entry age at 17. The grid now also draws a course begun at 19, with the date fact set directly, and asserts that such a student never qualifies. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

…nto cb-qyp-school-leaver-routes Brings in #2285's review round 2 head (212db88). Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

…o ctc-qyp-school-leaver-routes Brings in #2285's review round 2 head through the item 1 branch. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Brings in main with #2285 and #2288 merged. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

…outes Brings in main with #2285 and #2288 merged. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

…date-of-birth tests - The route variable's docs now warn that setting it for some people gives everyone else false, and point to date_of_birth for placing one person. They also state that the rule departs from the 6 October reading that is_SP_age uses. - YAML: a 2025-26 case where the 16-year-old ranks first under the two-child limit and the youngest child loses the element (GBP 7,581.72), and a case mixing a person with date_of_birth and one without (both in the route). The second kills a mutant that reads the raw date_of_birth input instead of birth_day. - means_test_income_members.yaml: the 17-year-old case's name says why they are outside the route. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

…e education Review round 1 of #2301: the formula took failing the non-advanced education test as having left education, so a 16-year-old in full-time advanced education working 24 hours a week lost the reg. 4 period. Reg. 5(4)(a) bars work only for a person "having ceased to receive full-time education or approved training", and full-time education at a school or college counts at any level (reg. 5(5)). Reg. 4(2) lifts the first condition only. The 20 weeks of reg. 5(3)(b) are for a person who has ceased. The property oracle had the same conflation and is fixed with it; the grid now draws a course begun at 19, as its comment says. YAML Cases 15 and 16 pin the advanced student. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Fixes #2385. Housing Benefit, Income Support, tax credit and Council Tax Reduction applicable income counted the family's own children's and young persons' income, tax, contributions and personal benefits too, an approximation each formula's comment called a follow-up. The law counts the claimant's and partner's alone: HB Regs 2006 reg 25(3) and IS Regs 1987 reg 23(2) say in terms that a child's or young person's income is not the claimant's; the tax credit income regulations (reg 3(1)) and every Council Tax Reduction scheme count the claimant or applicant and partner (SSI 2021/249 reg 36(2) says so in terms). The household head who applies alone for Council Tax Reduction keeps the treatment #2288 gave them. Tests: new YAML (three cases, each failing on main), a property test that a dependant's income never changes any of the seven income totals, and the Scottish CTR young-person tests updated to the rule. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

…routes Brings in #2387 (only the claimant's and partner's income in the legacy means tests), which this PR needs, and main e01f2f5 with it. The one conflict, the means-test property docstring, keeps both changes. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Brings in #2279's head 9d2fadb. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

…ent's means tests Review round 1 of #2299: a young person who qualifies through reg. 7 and works 24 hours stays a young person, so their earnings must not enter the parent's Housing Benefit, Income Support or Council Tax Reduction income. #2387, merged in here, makes that so; Case 11 now has £20,000 of earnings and asserts the three applicable incomes are nil. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

…outes Brings in #2299's round 1 fixes, #2387 and #2279's head 9d2fadb. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

…lusion Brings in #2301 and #2299's round 1 fixes, #2387 and #2279's head. The one conflict, the CTC QYP docstring, keeps both changes: the ceased- education wording and the Income Support own-right input. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

MaxGhenis · 2026-10-22T01:13:12Z

UK hub takeover for the Budget fix sprint (Max, 21 Oct). The owner session local_1b6fef51 has been idle since mid-October. The hub woke it on 21 Oct at 23:58Z, and it did not start. To land this before the Budget model locks (the first pe-uk release cut by about 12:00Z Thu 22 Oct), the hub has taken it over as build 20261021-211254-sprint-2300-2302, which merges main, re-tests, pushes as a fast-forward and marks it ready. The hub then reviews it and lands it through the merge queue.

If the owner session wakes, please don't push to this branch; comment here instead, so there's only one writer.

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

MaxGhenis · 2026-10-22T01:17:38Z

UK hub: takeover withdrawn. The owner session has been woken (22 Oct 01:25Z) and is finishing this PR itself, so the hub's build is cancelled. One writer: the owner session.

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

# Conflicts: # policyengine_uk/tests/test_legacy_award_readers_properties.py

Main has moved the tax credit member mask into tax_credits_current_year_income and, through #2078, means-tests the Council Tax Reduction applicant and partner. Both conflicts take main's code and re-apply this PR's change where the masks now live: the tax credit income counts the claimants alone, and the CTR income the applicant and partner alone, dropping the family's children and young persons that #2078 still counted. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

…education Review round 2 of #2301: the formula took apprenticeship as ceasing education, so a 16-year-old apprentice still on a college course and working 24 hours or more lost the reg. 4 period. Education received by virtue of employment is left out of the first condition (reg. 5(3)(a)(ii)), which reg. 4(2) lifts; reg. 5(5) counts a course at a school or college without that exclusion, so the apprentice has not "ceased to receive full-time education" and the reg. 5(4)(a) bar does not apply. The property oracle had the same assumption and is fixed with it. YAML Case 5 now expects the apprentice on a course to qualify (£3,455); new Case 17 keeps an apprentice who has left every course out. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

#2089 replaced the shared is_benefit_cap_single_claimant_rate with is_uc_benefit_cap_single_claimant_rate and its Housing Benefit counterpart. The lone-parent case asserts the UC rate, which is still false: the 16-year-old outside education is a qualifying young person the claimant is responsible for. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

…routes Brings in #2387 at 78a8cca, which carries main. The one conflict, the legacy readers property test, takes #2279's current version: this PR's own commits do not touch it. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

After main's benefit cap work, two cases asserted that a 16-year-old who has left education is not a Housing Benefit young person, so their DLA or armed forces independence payment does not lift the cap, and the exemption's docstring named this PR's issue (#2287) as the gap. Under reg. 4 they are a Child Benefit qualifying young person until the 31 August after their 16th birthday, and so a Housing Benefit young person (HB Regs 2006 reg. 19), whose benefit lifts the cap (reg. 75F(1)). Both expectations and the docstring now say so; Universal Credit's exemption is unchanged. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

…outes Brings in #2299 on main with #2279 and #2387. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

…lusion Brings in #2301's apprentice fix and the restack on main with #2279, apprentice-on-a-course wording and this PR's Income Support input. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Three comments still said the Housing Benefit cap exceptions leave out a 16-year-old in neither non-advanced education nor approved training (#2287). Under reg. 4 the model's Child Benefit qualifying young person now counts every 16-year-old for the year, whatever their education, so the exceptions and the cap rate agree on them. Comments and documentation only; no formula changes. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

…o ctc-qyp-school-leaver-routes

github-actions · 2026-10-22T03:03:22Z

Aggregate impact on certified data: pass

Base 582b86315c against head e4a6e8373d, both on enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5 (policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1, sha256 056e80fd8e91), fiscal years 2025-26 to 2031-32. Each year is a full microsimulation run on each side.

Checks: 0 broken by this change, 1 failing on both sides, 0 fixed. Moves flagged for review: 2 (thresholds in report_spec.yaml; a flag does not fail the job).

Workflow run and full report

Notes

In the years a figure from fewer than 10 records is suppressed (spending.disabled_students_allowance), every total containing it, and the decile incomes, are rebuilt from their other components, so no published total includes it. Those totals are marked †. A change is withheld where the two sides leave out different figures and can't be lined up.

Moves flagged for review

Measure	Year	Base	Head	Change
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children	2029-30	31.3%	31.5%	+0.16pp
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children	2029-30	4,771k	4,795k	+24.2k

Receipts by tax head

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Income tax	+£1.8m	+£1.8m	+£1.9m	+£1.9m	+£2.0m	+£2.1m	+£2.2m

Spending by benefit and service

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Child Benefit	+£5.2m	+£5.4m	+£5.6m	+£5.7m	+£5.9m	+£6.0m	+£6.2m
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed

Caseloads

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Child Benefit	+1.0k	+1.0k	+1.0k	+1.0k	+1.0k	+1.0k	+1.0k
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed

Government balance, each component counted once

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Government receipts, each component once	+£1.8m	+£1.8m	+£1.9m	+£1.9m	+£2.0m	+£2.1m	+£2.2m
Government spending	+£5.2m †	+£5.4m †	+£5.6m †	+£5.7m †	+£5.9m †	+£6.0m †	+£6.2m †
Government balance, each receipt once	-£3.5m †	-£3.6m †	-£3.7m †	-£3.8m †	-£3.9m †	-£3.9m †	-£4.0m †

Model totals

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
gov_tax	+£1.8m	+£1.8m	+£1.9m	+£1.9m	+£2.0m	+£2.1m	+£2.2m
household_tax	+£1.8m	+£1.8m	+£1.9m	+£1.9m	+£2.0m	+£2.1m	+£2.2m
pre_budget_change_household_tax	+£1.8m	+£1.8m	+£1.9m	+£1.9m	+£2.0m	+£2.1m	+£2.2m
gov_spending	+£5.2m †	+£5.4m †	+£5.6m †	+£5.7m †	+£5.9m †	+£6.0m †	+£6.2m †
household_benefits	+£5.2m †	+£5.4m †	+£5.6m †	+£5.7m †	+£5.9m †	+£6.0m †	+£6.2m †
gov_balance	-£3.5m †	-£3.6m †	-£3.7m †	-£3.8m †	-£3.9m †	-£3.9m †	-£4.0m †

Household income totals

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Household net income	+£3.5m †	+£3.6m †	+£3.7m †	+£3.8m †	+£3.9m †	+£3.9m †	+£4.0m †
Household net income (HBAI definition)	+£3.5m	+£3.6m	+£3.7m	+£3.8m	+£3.9m	+£3.9m	+£4.0m

Poverty rates

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone	-0.01pp	-0.00pp	-0.00pp	-0.00pp	-0.00pp	-0.00pp	0
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children	-0.01pp	-0.00pp	-0.00pp	-0.00pp	-0.00pp	-0.00pp	0
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	-0.01pp	-0.00pp	-0.00pp	-0.00pp	-0.00pp	-0.00pp	0
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone	0	-0.01pp	0	0	0	0	0
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children	0	-0.01pp	0	0	0	0	0
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	0	-0.01pp	0	0	0	0	0
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone	0	-0.01pp	-0.01pp	-0.01pp	-0.01pp	-0.01pp	-0.01pp
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children	0	-0.01pp	-0.01pp	-0.01pp	-0.01pp	-0.01pp	-0.01pp
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	0	-0.01pp	-0.01pp	-0.01pp	-0.01pp	-0.01pp	-0.01pp
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone	0	0	0	0	+0.06pp	+0.01pp	-0.01pp
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children	0	0	0	0	+0.16pp	0	-0.01pp
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	0	0	0	0	+0.02pp	+0.01pp	-0.01pp
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	0	0	0	0	+0.04pp	+0.00pp	0

People in poverty

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone	-4.7k	-203	-203	-204	-205	-206	0
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children	-1.9k	-81	-81	-82	-82	-82	0
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	-2.8k	-122	-122	-122	-123	-124	0
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone	0	-4.5k	0	0	0	0	0
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children	0	-1.8k	0	0	0	0	0
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	0	-2.7k	0	0	0	0	0
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone	0	-4.5k	-4.5k	-4.5k	-4.6k	-4.6k	-4.8k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children	0	-1.8k	-1.8k	-1.8k	-1.8k	-1.8k	-1.9k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	0	-2.7k	-2.7k	-2.7k	-2.7k	-2.7k	-2.9k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone	0	0	0	0	+39.6k	+3.8k	-4.6k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children	0	0	0	0	+24.2k	0	-1.8k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	0	0	0	0	+11.0k	+3.6k	-2.8k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	0	0	0	0	+4.4k	+222	0

Inequality

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Gini coefficient, equivalised HBAI income before housing costs	-0.0000	-0.0000	-0.0000	-0.0000	-0.0000	-0.0000	-0.0000

Mean household net income in each side's own deciles

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household	+£0.14 †	+£0.14 †	+£0.14 †	+£0.14 †	+£0.15 †	+£0.15 †	+£0.15 †
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household	+£0.29 †	+£0.29 †	+£0.29 †	+£0.30 †	+£0.31 †	+£0.31 †	+£0.32 †
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household	+£0.46 †	+£0.48 †	+£0.49 †	+£0.51 †	+£0.51 †	+£0.52 †	+£0.54 †
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household	+£0.09 †	+£0.09 †	+£0.10 †	+£0.10 †	+£0.10 †	+£0.10 †	+£0.09 †
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household	-£3.88 †	-£6.13 †	-£4.09 †	-£4.08 †	-£0.29 †	-£2.92 †	-£4.50 †
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household	+£3.05 †	+£22 †	+£3.20 †	+£3.30 †	+£2.00 †	+£4.96 †	+£3.38 †
Decile 9: mean household_net_income per household	+£0.00 †	+£0.00 †	+£0.00 †	+£0.00 †	+£0.00 †	+£0.00 †	+£0.00 †

Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance)

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp	0	+£0	-£0	-£0	-£0	+£0	0
Raise higher rate by 1pp	+£0	-£0	+£1	+£0	+£2	+£0	-£1
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year	+£0	-£0	+£0	0	0	+£0	-£1
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child	-£1.5m	-£1.4m	-£1.3m	-£1.3m	-£1.2m	-£1.1m	-£1.0m
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%	-£1.6m	-£1.6m	-£1.7m	-£1.7m	-£2.1m	-£2.1m	-£2.2m
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%	+£0	-£0	-£0	-£1	+£0	+£0	-£1
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp	+£8	-£0	+£0	-£0	+£1	+£0	-£1
Raise additional rate by 3pp	+£0	-£0	-£0	-£0	0	+£0	0
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%	-£1	-£0	-£1	-£0	+£1	+£0	0
Raise the State Pension by 10%	+£0	0	0	0	-£0	0	-£0

Standard reforms: change in each reform's target

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp: change in income_tax	0	0	+£0	0	0	0	0
Raise higher rate by 1pp: change in income_tax	+£0	0	+£0	0	-£0	+£0	0
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year: change in income_tax	0	0	+£0	0	-£0	0	-£0
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child: change in child_benefit	+£1.7m	+£1.6m	+£1.5m	+£1.4m	+£1.4m	+£1.3m	+£1.2m
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%: change in universal_credit	+£1.6m	+£1.6m	+£1.7m	+£1.7m	+£2.1m	+£2.1m	+£2.2m
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax	0	+£0	+£0	0	0	0	0

Household net income by decile

Mean change in household net income per household, and as a share of the decile's base income; households stay in the base run's deciles.

Base decile	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Decile 1	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change
Decile 2	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change
Decile 3	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change
Decile 4	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change
Decile 5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Decile 6	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change
Decile 7	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Decile 8	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Decile 9	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change	fewer than 10 households change
Decile 10	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
all	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Year	People gaining over £1	People losing over £1
2025-26	0.0%	0.0%
2026-27	0.0%	0.0%
2027-28	0.0%	0.0%
2028-29	0.0%	0.0%
2029-30	0.0%	0.0%
2030-31	0.0%	0.0%
2031-32	0.0%	0.0%

No change in any year: components the model counts twice; population.

Checks failing on both base and head (1)

VAT is never negative (sign:vat): 2025-26: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-54,797,972 in total; 2026-27: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-56,271,349 in total; 2027-28: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-57,609,146 in total

Counted-once check

Each of 84 components was raised by £1 per unit in 2026-27, and every head of its totals was read household by household: its own head must rise by exactly £1, no other tax head may move, no other benefit may rise, and the model's own total must move by what its heads moved. A head that breaks a rule is measured again twice: with every other head held at its baseline value, and with every other head held at its value after the first £1 while the component rises again. It fails where either still shows the response. 0 failed; 0 were skipped.

declared double count corporate_sdlt is still contained in expected_sdlt (coefficient 1.000; Corporate SDLT is counted twice in household and government tax totals #2159)

Provenance

Side	Commit	Runtime	Environment hash	Partition hash	Time
base	main `582b86315c`	uk 2.146.1 (files `792e7aaf1a15`), core 3.33.2, py 3.13.16 aarch64	`5d40da9d9749`	`f210f83d5be4`	1511.11s
head	#2301 merged into main `e4a6e8373d`	uk 2.146.1 (files `2431056b039d`), core 3.33.2, py 3.13.16 aarch64	`5d40da9d9749`	`f210f83d5be4`	1533.66s

Dataset: hf://policyengine/policyengine-uk-data-private/enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5@2526edbbb687a3b54dbb11272e5389e4b62d2ac2, sha256 056e80fd8e9151d78f432a25cde863340baee81304c6216a37fb575ce8563784 (verified on both sides), policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1.

Receipts by tax head: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Income tax	£299.29bn	£319.01bn	£336.47bn	£351.62bn	£367.17bn	£385.29bn	£403.60bn
National Insurance (employee and self-employed)	£52.58bn	£54.94bn	£56.75bn	£58.48bn	£60.62bn	£62.57bn	£65.03bn
National Insurance (employer)	£152.64bn	£159.18bn	£164.14bn	£168.73bn	£176.11bn	£181.72bn	£188.90bn
Employer NI change borne by capital	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Employer NI change borne by consumers	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Capital gains tax	£12.62bn	£13.06bn	£13.55bn	£14.04bn	£14.54bn	£15.09bn	£15.65bn
Student loan repayments	£7.83bn	£8.12bn	£8.35bn	£8.56bn	£8.79bn	£9.04bn	£9.38bn
VAT	£253.71bn	£260.53bn	£266.72bn	£273.14bn	£279.83bn	£286.71bn	£293.71bn
Change in VAT from its baseline	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
VAT on private school fees	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Fuel duties	£24.53bn	£24.64bn	£26.64bn	£26.69bn	£26.42bn	£25.76bn	£26.35bn
Alcohol duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Tobacco duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Vehicle excise duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
TV licence fee	£4.28bn	£4.43bn	£4.44bn	£4.46bn	£4.48bn	£4.51bn	£4.53bn
Council tax	£49.56bn	£52.45bn	£55.78bn	£59.39bn	£62.98bn	£66.74bn	£70.70bn
High value council tax surcharge	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.48bn	£0.49bn	£0.51bn	£0.52bn
Northern Ireland domestic rates	£0.55bn	£0.58bn	£0.61bn	£0.63bn	£0.67bn	£0.70bn	£0.73bn
Business rates	£31.73bn	£31.73bn	£31.73bn	£31.73bn	£31.73bn	£31.73bn	£31.73bn
Stamp duty land tax (own purchases, and corporate until the	£10.06bn	£10.56bn	£10.98bn	£11.40bn	£11.81bn	£12.23bn	£12.64bn
Land transaction tax (Wales)	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Land and buildings transaction tax (Scotland)	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn
Unspecified tax change borne by capital	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Unspecified tax change borne by consumers	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Wealth tax	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Wealth tax excluding the main residence	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Land value tax	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Carbon tax	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn

Spending by benefit and service: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
State Pension	£122.15bn	£126.64bn	£127.57bn	£129.47bn	£133.29bn	£137.24bn	£141.32bn
Pension Credit	£6.68bn	£7.07bn	£7.06bn	£7.13bn	£7.26bn	£7.39bn	£7.49bn
Winter Fuel Payment	£1.70bn	£1.68bn	£1.59bn	£1.58bn	£1.57bn	£1.55bn	£1.52bn
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland)	£0.19bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.21bn	£0.21bn	£0.22bn	£0.22bn
Universal Credit	£78.81bn	£83.11bn	£84.93bn	£86.69bn	£87.61bn	£89.03bn	£90.35bn
Housing Benefit	£8.59bn	£8.93bn	£9.19bn	£9.34bn	£9.61bn	£9.87bn	£10.15bn
Council Tax Reduction	£1.99bn	£2.03bn	£2.08bn	£2.13bn	£2.18bn	£2.23bn	£2.29bn
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related)	£2.12bn	£2.18bn	£2.23bn	£2.28bn	£2.33bn	£2.39bn	£2.45bn
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based)	£5.22bn	£5.36bn	£5.49bn	£5.62bn	£5.76bn	£5.90bn	£6.04bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based)	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based)	£0.29bn	£0.30bn	£0.30bn	£0.31bn	£0.32bn	£0.33bn	£0.33bn
Income Support	£0.12bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Working Tax Credit	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Child Tax Credit	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Incapacity Benefit	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Personal Independence Payment	£27.05bn	£28.19bn	£28.94bn	£29.64bn	£30.37bn	£31.11bn	£31.87bn
Disability Living Allowance	£7.52bn	£7.83bn	£8.04bn	£8.24bn	£8.44bn	£8.65bn	£8.86bn
Attendance Allowance	£8.71bn	£9.08bn	£9.32bn	£9.55bn	£9.78bn	£10.02bn	£10.26bn
Carer's Allowance	£4.50bn	£4.69bn	£4.81bn	£4.93bn	£5.05bn	£5.17bn	£5.29bn
Carer Support Payment (Scotland)	£0.31bn	£0.32bn	£0.33bn	£0.34bn	£0.35bn	£0.36bn	£0.36bn
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland)	£0.00bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn
Severe Disablement Allowance	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit	£0.51bn	£0.52bn	£0.53bn	£0.54bn	£0.56bn	£0.57bn	£0.59bn
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme	£0.61bn	£0.62bn	£0.64bn	£0.65bn	£0.67bn	£0.69bn	£0.70bn
War Widow's or Widower's Pension	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Child Benefit	£16.24bn	£16.91bn	£17.33bn	£17.74bn	£18.17bn	£18.61bn	£19.05bn
Scottish Child Payment	£0.50bn	£0.52bn	£0.53bn	£0.55bn	£0.56bn	£0.57bn	£0.58bn
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual)	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Healthy Start vouchers	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn
Maternity Allowance	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Statutory Maternity Pay	£3.32bn	£3.41bn	£3.49bn	£3.57bn	£3.66bn	£3.75bn	£3.84bn
Statutory Paternity Pay	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Statutory Sick Pay	£1.13bn	£1.16bn	£1.19bn	£1.22bn	£1.25bn	£1.28bn	£1.31bn
Sure Start Maternity Grant	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn
Bereavement Support Payment	£0.67bn	£0.69bn	£0.70bn	£0.72bn	£0.74bn	£0.76bn	£0.78bn
Tax-Free Childcare	£0.55bn	£0.56bn	£0.57bn	£0.58bn	£0.60bn	£0.61bn	£0.59bn
Extended childcare entitlement	£2.66bn	£3.14bn	£3.23bn	£3.30bn	£3.38bn	£3.47bn	£3.55bn
Universal childcare entitlement	£3.32bn	£3.59bn	£3.69bn	£3.78bn	£3.88bn	£3.99bn	£4.08bn
Targeted childcare entitlement	£0.57bn	£0.60bn	£0.62bn	£0.63bn	£0.65bn	£0.66bn	£0.67bn
Care to Learn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Childcare Grant	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Parents' Learning Allowance	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn
Adult Dependants' Grant	£0.06bn	£0.06bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn
Travel Grant	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
NHS spending	£204.68bn	£205.46bn	£206.22bn	£207.04bn	£207.96bn	£208.89bn	£209.79bn
State education spending	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn
Transport subsidy spending	£25.15bn	£25.25bn	£25.34bn	£25.44bn	£25.55bn	£25.67bn	£25.78bn
Cost-of-living support payment	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Energy Bills Rebate	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Basic income	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Disability basic income	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Other public spending budget change	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn

Caseloads: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
State Pension	11,308k	11,208k	10,906k	10,812k	10,860k	10,908k	10,955k
Pension Credit	1,491k	1,489k	1,478k	1,459k	1,459k	1,457k	1,453k
Winter Fuel Payment	7,092k	7,011k	6,601k	6,517k	6,493k	6,381k	6,254k
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland)	806k	807k	807k	805k	809k	812k	816k
Universal Credit	6,371k	6,379k	6,409k	6,420k	6,395k	6,387k	6,371k
Housing Benefit	1,254k	1,252k	1,254k	1,240k	1,245k	1,247k	1,249k
Council Tax Reduction	3,186k	3,211k	3,224k	3,245k	3,264k	3,280k	3,293k
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related)	187k	188k	188k	189k	190k	190k	191k
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based)	722k	724k	727k	730k	733k	737k	740k
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based)	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based)	67k	67k	68k	68k	68k	69k	69k
Income Support	25k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Working Tax Credit	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Child Tax Credit	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Incapacity Benefit	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Personal Independence Payment	3,581k	3,595k	3,608k	3,623k	3,639k	3,655k	3,671k
Disability Living Allowance	1,296k	1,301k	1,306k	1,311k	1,317k	1,323k	1,329k
Attendance Allowance	1,701k	1,708k	1,714k	1,721k	1,729k	1,736k	1,744k
Carer's Allowance	1,038k	1,042k	1,046k	1,050k	1,055k	1,059k	1,064k
Carer Support Payment (Scotland)	71k	72k	72k	72k	73k	73k	73k
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland)	0k	72k	72k	72k	73k	73k	73k
Severe Disablement Allowance	4k	4k	4k	4k	4k	4k	4k
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit	137k	138k	139k	139k	140k	140k	141k
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme	94k	94k	94k	95k	95k	95k	96k
War Widow's or Widower's Pension	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Child Benefit	8,137k	8,166k	8,186k	8,216k	8,250k	8,283k	8,315k
Scottish Child Payment	352k	354k	355k	356k	357k	358k	357k
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual)	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Healthy Start vouchers	200k	201k	202k	203k	204k	204k	205k
Maternity Allowance	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Statutory Maternity Pay	334k	335k	336k	338k	339k	341k	342k
Statutory Paternity Pay	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Statutory Sick Pay	182k	183k	183k	184k	185k	186k	186k
Sure Start Maternity Grant	26k	26k	26k	27k	27k	27k	27k
Bereavement Support Payment	98k	98k	99k	99k	100k	100k	101k
Tax-Free Childcare	1,017k	1,028k	1,028k	1,033k	1,034k	1,038k	1,023k
Extended childcare entitlement	665k	671k	675k	677k	682k	686k	687k
Universal childcare entitlement	986k	989k	992k	997k	1,002k	1,013k	1,015k
Targeted childcare entitlement	119k	120k	120k	121k	121k	122k	121k
Care to Learn	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Childcare Grant	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Parents' Learning Allowance	98k	99k	99k	100k	100k	100k	101k
Adult Dependants' Grant	18k	18k	12k	13k	13k	13k	13k
Travel Grant	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Cost-of-living support payment	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Energy Bills Rebate	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Basic income	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Disability basic income	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k

Government balance, each component counted once: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Government receipts, each component once	£899.38bn	£939.24bn	£976.19bn	£1,009.39bn	£1,045.66bn	£1,082.61bn	£1,123.48bn
Government spending	£536.24bn †	£550.46bn †	£556.58bn †	£563.62bn †	£572.16bn †	£581.38bn †	£590.56bn †
Government balance, each receipt once	£363.14bn †	£388.79bn †	£419.61bn †	£445.77bn †	£473.51bn †	£501.22bn †	£532.92bn †
Benefits in household_benefits but not in gov_spending	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn

Model totals: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
gov_tax	£902.51bn	£942.37bn	£979.32bn	£1,012.52bn	£1,048.79bn	£1,085.74bn	£1,126.61bn
household_tax	£496.17bn	£522.66bn	£548.45bn	£570.64bn	£592.85bn	£617.30bn	£644.01bn
pre_budget_change_household_tax	£488.34bn	£514.54bn	£540.10bn	£561.60bn	£583.57bn	£607.76bn	£634.11bn
gov_spending	£536.24bn †	£550.46bn †	£556.58bn †	£563.62bn †	£572.16bn †	£581.38bn †	£590.56bn †
household_benefits	£536.24bn †	£550.46bn †	£556.58bn †	£563.62bn †	£572.16bn †	£581.38bn †	£590.56bn †
gov_balance	£366.27bn †	£391.92bn †	£422.74bn †	£448.90bn †	£476.64bn †	£504.35bn †	£536.05bn †

Components the model counts twice: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
corporate_sdlt, counted again inside expected_sdlt	£3.13bn	£3.13bn	£3.13bn	£3.13bn	£3.13bn	£3.13bn	£3.13bn

Household income totals: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Household market income	£1,657.06bn	£1,719.25bn	£1,771.68bn	£1,821.99bn	£1,872.88bn	£1,930.99bn	£2,001.98bn
Household net income	£1,657.86bn †	£1,706.28bn †	£1,737.92bn †	£1,772.03bn †	£1,808.11bn †	£1,849.73bn †	£1,901.48bn †
Household net income (HBAI definition)	£1,466.42bn	£1,513.07bn	£1,545.11bn	£1,578.08bn	£1,612.10bn	£1,651.13bn	£1,701.58bn

Population: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
People	69,514k	69,778k	70,036k	70,316k	70,626k	70,944k	71,249k
Benefit units	35,247k	35,381k	35,512k	35,654k	35,811k	35,972k	36,127k
Households	31,167k	31,285k	31,401k	31,526k	31,665k	31,808k	31,944k

Poverty rates: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone	15.9%	15.0%	15.5%	15.6%	15.7%	15.8%	15.8%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children	23.7%	20.9%	21.6%	21.4%	21.6%	21.8%	21.7%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	13.8%	13.4%	14.0%	14.1%	14.2%	14.3%	14.3%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	13.7%	13.2%	13.3%	13.5%	13.6%	13.7%	13.7%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone	21.1%	20.6%	21.3%	21.5%	21.9%	22.2%	22.3%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children	32.1%	30.2%	30.9%	31.1%	31.7%	32.3%	32.5%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	19.6%	19.4%	20.2%	20.4%	20.8%	21.0%	21.0%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	12.8%	12.6%	12.6%	13.1%	13.4%	13.4%	13.4%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone	16.9%	16.4%	16.4%	16.6%	16.6%	16.7%	16.7%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children	25.6%	23.5%	23.2%	23.2%	23.2%	23.2%	23.2%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	14.4%	14.4%	14.6%	14.8%	14.9%	15.0%	14.9%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	15.0%	14.9%	14.4%	14.7%	14.3%	14.3%	14.6%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone	21.7%	21.3%	21.4%	21.5%	21.7%	21.9%	22.0%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children	33.0%	31.6%	31.0%	31.1%	31.5%	31.6%	32.0%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	20.0%	20.0%	20.3%	20.4%	20.6%	20.8%	20.9%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	13.7%	13.1%	12.8%	13.0%	12.8%	12.9%	13.2%

People in poverty: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone	11,051k	10,435k	10,856k	10,959k	11,091k	11,220k	11,234k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children	3,558k	3,141k	3,261k	3,253k	3,298k	3,334k	3,335k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	5,860k	5,735k	6,068k	6,164k	6,235k	6,314k	6,321k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	1,634k	1,559k	1,527k	1,543k	1,558k	1,572k	1,579k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone	14,663k	14,362k	14,907k	15,144k	15,491k	15,755k	15,874k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children	4,809k	4,555k	4,676k	4,719k	4,835k	4,939k	4,994k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	8,333k	8,323k	8,775k	8,931k	9,122k	9,275k	9,329k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	1,521k	1,484k	1,456k	1,493k	1,533k	1,541k	1,551k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone	11,780k	11,459k	11,518k	11,656k	11,703k	11,827k	11,874k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children	3,840k	3,536k	3,504k	3,522k	3,540k	3,552k	3,563k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	6,154k	6,157k	6,353k	6,461k	6,528k	6,633k	6,625k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	1,786k	1,766k	1,661k	1,673k	1,636k	1,643k	1,686k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone	15,110k	14,866k	14,956k	15,109k	15,320k	15,517k	15,691k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children	4,948k	4,756k	4,684k	4,715k	4,795k	4,840k	4,914k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	8,531k	8,560k	8,793k	8,917k	9,065k	9,191k	9,254k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	1,631k	1,551k	1,479k	1,477k	1,460k	1,486k	1,523k

Inequality: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Gini coefficient, equivalised HBAI income before housing costs	0.3074	0.3052	0.3066	0.3072	0.3078	0.3084	0.3094

Mean household net income in each side's own deciles: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household	£17,700 †	£17,996 †	£17,934 †	£17,992 †	£18,328 †	£18,507 †	£18,680 †
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household	£28,323 †	£29,102 †	£28,705 †	£28,983 †	£29,330 †	£29,734 †	£30,318 †
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household	£34,630 †	£35,808 †	£36,446 †	£37,019 †	£37,221 †	£37,812 †	£38,493 †
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household	£39,334 †	£40,803 †	£41,758 †	£42,693 †	£43,435 †	£44,025 †	£44,926 †
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household	£44,856 †	£46,150 †	£47,077 †	£47,439 †	£48,027 †	£49,181 †	£50,036 †
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household	£47,926 †	£49,328 †	£50,286 †	£51,170 †	£52,167 †	£52,950 †	£54,200 †
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household	£56,322 †	£57,590 †	£58,476 †	£59,426 †	£60,151 †	£61,626 †	£62,896 †
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household	£69,267 †	£70,356 †	£71,672 †	£72,810 †	£74,351 †	£75,797 †	£77,578 †
Decile 9: mean household_net_income per household	£79,648 †	£81,992 †	£83,192 †	£84,486 †	£86,056 †	£87,570 †	£90,645 †
Decile 10: mean household_net_income per household	£117,618 †	£120,489 †	£122,421 †	£124,552 †	£126,802 †	£129,073 †	£131,887 †

Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance): head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp	£6.21bn	£6.50bn	£6.70bn	£6.90bn	£7.11bn	£7.34bn	£7.62bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp	£3.54bn	£3.82bn	£4.05bn	£4.27bn	£4.49bn	£4.76bn	£4.96bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year	£-3.83bn	£-3.96bn	£-4.03bn	£-4.10bn	£-4.19bn	£-4.29bn	£-2.02bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child	£-2.00bn	£-1.76bn	£-1.64bn	£-1.54bn	£-1.44bn	£-1.34bn	£-1.24bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%	£-20.54bn	£-21.10bn	£-21.45bn	£-21.88bn	£-21.96bn	£-22.33bn	£-22.79bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%	£11.06bn	£11.51bn	£11.83bn	£12.14bn	£12.47bn	£12.81bn	£13.29bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp	£25.01bn	£25.68bn	£26.29bn	£26.92bn	£27.58bn	£28.26bn	£28.95bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp	£2.83bn	£3.07bn	£3.27bn	£3.47bn	£3.67bn	£3.91bn	£4.23bn
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%	£-3.04bn	£-3.17bn	£-3.24bn	£-3.32bn	£-3.37bn	£-3.42bn	£-3.47bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%	£-7.81bn	£-8.07bn	£-7.99bn	£-8.11bn	£-8.36bn	£-8.66bn	£-9.02bn

Standard reforms: change in each reform's target: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp: change in income_tax	£6.36bn	£6.65bn	£6.86bn	£7.07bn	£7.28bn	£7.52bn	£7.80bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp: change in income_tax	£3.55bn	£3.83bn	£4.06bn	£4.28bn	£4.50bn	£4.77bn	£4.97bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year: change in income_tax	£-3.96bn	£-4.10bn	£-4.19bn	£-4.26bn	£-4.36bn	£-4.47bn	£-1.77bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child: change in child_benefit	£2.34bn	£2.15bn	£2.03bn	£1.92bn	£1.82bn	£1.71bn	£1.59bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%: change in universal_credit	£20.53bn	£21.09bn	£21.44bn	£21.87bn	£21.95bn	£22.32bn	£22.78bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%: change in national_insurance	£11.33bn	£11.79bn	£12.13bn	£12.44bn	£12.78bn	£13.13bn	£13.62bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp: change in vat	£25.01bn	£25.68bn	£26.29bn	£26.92bn	£27.58bn	£28.26bn	£28.95bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax	£2.83bn	£3.07bn	£3.27bn	£3.47bn	£3.67bn	£3.91bn	£4.23bn
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%: change in universal_credit	£3.04bn	£3.17bn	£3.25bn	£3.32bn	£3.37bn	£3.43bn	£3.47bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%: change in state_pension	£10.72bn	£11.23bn	£11.37bn	£11.62bn	£12.08bn	£12.54bn	£13.07bn

#2549 added other_members_with_awards ("As other_members") for the young singles and working parents properties. It draws a 16-60-year-old outside education, but unlike other_members it did not set is_before_first_september_following_16th_birthday false. A drawn 16-year-old was therefore a UC qualifying young person, so the family changed. In the shrunk case, a single 19-year-old in Wales with GBP 12,000 earnings, housing_benefit_applicable_income went from GBP 11,740 to 0, and the two properties failed. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

reference_specified_benefit counted the school-leaver role as a young person for Universal Credit only, matching the old model, where the Child Benefit qualifying young person (and so Housing Benefit's young person, reg. 19) had no route for a 16-year-old who has left education. Under reg. 4 they are one for the year, so their DLA, PIP, AFIP or carer benefit lifts the Housing Benefit cap too, as the formula now gives. Neither scheme counts one receiving benefits in their own right. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

…-qyp-school-leaver-routes

…o ctc-qyp-school-leaver-routes

MaxGhenis · 2026-10-22T04:03:35Z

Parked until after the 28 October Budget under the UK hub's Budget triage (04:10Z 22 Oct: the QYP set is not Budget-material). Status at cf381c1:

Up to date with main a8b2848 and Count 16-year-olds outside education as UC and Pension Credit qualifying young persons until the 1 September after their 16th birthday #2279's fix 560005c; mergeable. Stacks on Add the Child Benefit qualifying young person routes for young people who have left education #2299.
CI: running at this head. The Aggregate impact report (linked in the description) is from the previous head, and only tests have changed since.
The full-stack integration's only failures are fixed: Add the Child Benefit qualifying young person routes for young people who have left education #2299's benefit cap oracle and Count 16-year-olds outside education as UC and Pension Credit qualifying young persons until the 1 September after their 16th birthday #2279's generator. Both files pass at End the Pension Credit, Child Benefit and CTC qualifying young person status for Income Support in own right #2302's head (64 passed).
Review: round 2 REQUEST_CHANGES on the apprentice reading; addressed (Case 5 now a QYP, new Case 17; mutations C10 and C11 caught). It needs a round 3 review at this head.
Left to do: CI green at this head, then mark ready and hand off to the UK hub with a handoffs.jsonl line. Owner: the QYP follow-ups session (local_1b6fef51-8f78-48d7-addf-36982ce71831).

MaxGhenis and others added 14 commits October 10, 2026 18:09

Merge remote-tracking branch 'origin/uc-pc-qyp-sixteen-route' into cb…

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…-qyp-school-leaver-routes

Merge remote-tracking branch 'origin/uc-pc-qyp-sixteen-route' into cb…

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…-qyp-school-leaver-routes Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Merge branch 'cb-qyp-school-leaver-routes' into ctc-qyp-school-leaver…

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…-routes Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Merge remote-tracking branch 'origin/claimant-not-own-child-or-qyp' i…

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…nto cb-qyp-school-leaver-routes Brings in #2285's review round 2 head (212db88). Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Merge remote-tracking branch 'origin/cb-qyp-school-leaver-routes' int…

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…o ctc-qyp-school-leaver-routes Brings in #2285's review round 2 head through the item 1 branch. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Merge origin/main into cb-qyp-school-leaver-routes

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Brings in main with #2285 and #2288 merged. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Merge origin/cb-qyp-school-leaver-routes into ctc-qyp-school-leaver-r…

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…outes Brings in main with #2285 and #2288 merged. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

MaxGhenis mentioned this pull request Oct 11, 2026

End the Pension Credit, Child Benefit and CTC qualifying young person status for Income Support in own right #2302

Draft

MaxGhenis changed the base branch from cb-qyp-school-leaver-routes to main October 11, 2026 12:46

MaxGhenis closed this Oct 11, 2026

MaxGhenis reopened this Oct 11, 2026

MaxGhenis and others added 9 commits October 11, 2026 08:53

Merge remote-tracking branch 'origin/main' into uc-pc-qyp-sixteen-route

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Merge remote-tracking branch 'origin/main' into uc-pc-qyp-sixteen-route

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Merge origin/uc-pc-qyp-sixteen-route into cb-qyp-school-leaver-routes

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Brings in #2279's head 9d2fadb. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Merge origin/cb-qyp-school-leaver-routes into ctc-qyp-school-leaver-r…

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…outes Brings in #2299's round 1 fixes, #2387 and #2279's head 9d2fadb. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

This was referenced Oct 14, 2026

Count 16-year-olds outside education as UC and Pension Credit qualifying young persons until the 1 September after their 16th birthday #2279

Open

Exclude Child Benefit from pensioner Council Tax Reduction income #2470

Merged

MaxGhenis and others added 8 commits October 21, 2026 21:18

Merge remote-tracking branch 'origin/main' into uc-pc-qyp-sixteen-route

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# Conflicts: # policyengine_uk/tests/test_legacy_award_readers_properties.py

Merge origin/uc-pc-qyp-sixteen-route into cb-qyp-school-leaver-routes

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Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Merge origin/cb-qyp-school-leaver-routes into ctc-qyp-school-leaver-r…

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…outes Brings in #2299 on main with #2279 and #2387. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

MaxGhenis and others added 2 commits October 21, 2026 21:53

Merge remote-tracking branch 'origin/cb-qyp-school-leaver-routes' int…

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…o ctc-qyp-school-leaver-routes

MaxGhenis and others added 4 commits October 21, 2026 23:32

Merge remote-tracking branch 'origin/uc-pc-qyp-sixteen-route' into cb…

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…-qyp-school-leaver-routes

Merge remote-tracking branch 'origin/cb-qyp-school-leaver-routes' int…

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…o ctc-qyp-school-leaver-routes

This was referenced Oct 22, 2026

Count only the claimant's and partner's income in the legacy means tests #2387

Merged

Add the Child Benefit qualifying young person routes for young people who have left education #2299

Closed

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Add the Child Tax Credit qualifying young person period after leaving education - #2301

Add the Child Tax Credit qualifying young person period after leaving education#2301
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Summary

The law

Change

The annual approximation, and a 16th birthday on 31 August

Invariants

Tests

Microsimulation impact

Aggregate impact report (CI)

Local run, 2024-25

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Aggregate impact on certified data: pass

Notes

Moves flagged for review

Receipts by tax head

Spending by benefit and service

Caseloads

Government balance, each component counted once

Model totals

Household income totals

Poverty rates

People in poverty

Inequality

Mean household net income in each side's own deciles

Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance)

Standard reforms: change in each reform's target

Household net income by decile

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