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Document that Northern Ireland business rates count regional and district rates - #2344

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Document that Northern Ireland business rates count regional and district rates#2344
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@MaxGhenis MaxGhenis commented Oct 11, 2026 •
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Fixes #2343

Summary

Documentation only. No values or formulas change. It explains why business_rates.statistics.revenue.NORTHERN_IRELAND (£741m in 2024-25) is about twice the OBR line that projects it (£382m):

  • The NI series counts payments of the whole rate bill: the regional rate plus each council's district rate, levied as one bill (Rates (Northern Ireland) Order 1977, art 9(1)).
  • The OBR's "Northern Ireland business rates" line (receipts Table 3.2, other taxes) appears to cover the regional rate only. The OBR's tables do not define it, so this is a reading of the evidence below.

Evidence

District rates are about half of NI rates. In 2024-25 LPS paid £1,592.7m of "Regional and District Rates" into the NI Consolidated Fund. Of that, £814.4m (51.1%) went to councils as "Transfer of District Rates to Local Councils" (DoF, Public Income and Expenditure Account 2024-25, p17 and note 6 on p23; both property sectors).

Non-domestic, 2024-25, £m:

Value Source
LPS non-domestic rates paid (the statistic) 741.3 OpenDataNI, "Non-Domestic Rates collected by District Council", row "Northern Ireland". Payments allocated to accounts by 31 March; mixed properties included
Regional part, estimate 363.7 Each council's payments × regional/(regional + district) poundage: regional 29.02p (NISR 2024/28 art 3(1)), district 25.57p to 38.22p (DfC Rate Statistics, Table 4). Not a published split
District part, estimate 377.7 Remainder
ONS, NI regional non-domestic rates (central government) 327 ONS CRPSF revenue tables, FYE 2025, sheet "Northern Ireland", row 38
ONS, NI district non-domestic rates (local government) 378 Same sheet, row 47. Blue Book 2025 note 58: the local-government series "only contain rates paid in Northern Ireland"
OBR, "Northern Ireland business rates" 382.3 OBR March 2026 receipts, Table 3.2, cell C7

Why the OBR line reads as the regional rate:

  • Placement. The OBR records it in "Other taxes" beside "Northern Ireland domestic rates". ONS classes both regional rates as central government taxes.
  • DoF's forecast. DoF expects regional rate income of "just over £900m" in 2026-27 (NI Assembly written statement, 12 February 2026). The OBR's two Table 3.2 NI lines sum to £913.7m that year.
  • This matches the model's existing reading for NI domestic rates (ni_domestic_rates in yoy_growth.yaml).
  • Magnitude alone does not settle it. £382m is near both estimated components, which happen to be of similar size.

Residual.

  • LPS (£741.3m) exceeds the two named ONS rows (£705m) by £36.3m (5.2%) in 2024-25, or by £31.3m if a separate £5m ONS row for non-profit payers is additional.
  • The whole of that non-domestic residual is unexplained.
  • For scale only: across all NI rates, LPS's audited Trust Statement shows accrued net revenue of £1,601.6m against operating cash of £1,594.0m, a net difference of £7.6m. This covers both property sectors and is not a bridge to the non-domestic residual.

Decision

  • Keep the level. NI businesses pay both rates on one bill. domestic_rates already charges the full NI domestic bill.
    • Review r1 found no evidence for reducing NI to the regional component.
    • Alternative: ONS accrued. The two named ONS rows sum to £705m (£710m if the £5m non-profit row is additional). The GB series stay on each government's own published accounting measures (England's NNDR3 income, Scotland's nominal contributable amount, Wales's pool contribution), so this would not put the nations on one basis.
  • Keep the index, and say what it covers. We did not identify a published NI-wide forecast of district non-domestic receipts, so applying the OBR line's growth to the district part is now stated as an assumption.
    • Alternative: enacted 2026-27 poundages, as the NI domestic index does under d870. That adds £10.7m to 2026-27, or £2.9m if the OBR's implied base change is kept.
    • Non-domestic values are revalued, unlike frozen domestic capital values.
    • This choice is queued for Max as d2001 (low priority). The documentation here describes the current choice and does not depend on it.

Changes

  • parameters/gov/hmrc/business_rates/statistics.yaml: header (the NI bill; Scotland's series as a nominal pool contribution), NORTHERN_IRELAND comment (district transfers, ONS rows, poundage estimate, growth assumption) and description (2015-16 to 2019-20 take the 2020-21 value, checked in the model).
  • parameters/gov/economic_assumptions/yoy_growth.yaml: description of obr.business_rates.northern_ireland.
  • data/fiscal_partition.yaml: the NI sentence of the business_rates data note. £0.78bn is the projected 2026-27 value.

Tests

test_fiscal_partition.py and test_corporate_receipts_statistics.py: 182 passed locally (uv run --frozen --extra dev pytest, after merging main). No test reads the changed text.

Review

  • r1 (GPT-6.1 Sol, at 1432062): REQUEST_CHANGES, ten findings. Revisions in 2f673c5 resolved seven; r2 found three (the residual, GB measures and the £5m ONS row) only partly addressed, and those were finished at 50a0c42.
    • The mapping is now qualified, and the poundage split is labelled an estimate.
    • The district transfers and Trust Statement figures are added.
    • The partition figure is labelled projected.
  • r2 (GPT-6.1 Sol, at 2f673c5): REQUEST_CHANGES. It found two MEDIUM and three LOW wording issues and confirmed that the other r1 findings were resolved. All five are addressed at the current head:
    • the £7.6m is now a net difference for scale, not a partial bridge to the residual;
    • four published measures (not five) put district rates at £814-819m;
    • Scotland's series is described as a nominal pool contribution;
    • the accrued alternative is qualified;
    • the page citation is corrected.
  • r3 (GPT-6.1 Sol, at 50a0c42): APPROVE. All r2 findings and r1 findings 3-5 resolved; one LOW note on this review history, fixed here.
  • Evidence and the finding-by-finding responses are in ~/reviews/ni-business-rates-reconciliation-2026-10-11/REPORT.md, with sources and scripts.

axiom: n/a: documentation of official receipts statistics; no law encoded or changed

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

@MaxGhenis @claude
Document that NI business rates count regional and district rates
1432062 
The Northern Ireland statistic is LPS non-domestic rates paid, which covers
the regional rate and each council's district rate (levied as one bill,
Rates (Northern Ireland) Order 1977, art 9(1)). The OBR's "Northern Ireland
business rates" line that projects it covers the regional rate only, which
is why the statistic is about twice the line. ONS records the two parts
separately (CRPSF FYE 2025: regional £327m, district £378m in 2024-25).

Fixes #2343

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis
MaxGhenis force-pushed the ni-business-rates-regional-district branch from 941107b to 1432062 Compare October 11, 2026 19:20
Base automatically changed from update-corporate-receipts-statistics to main October 24, 2026 03:40
juaristi22
juaristi22 approved these changes Oct 24, 2026
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Reviewed at 1432062732b89ea90c08c8a712fb010ecc523cdd against the actual merge base. No actionable findings from independent source and code reviews.

Primary sources support the regional-plus-district scope of the modeled NI business-rate level and the regional-only OBR comparator. The description correctly identifies applying that regional growth rate to the district portion as a modelling assumption.

A recursive parsed-YAML comparison confirms that only three documentation strings change; values, schedules, references and formulas are unchanged. Relevant source tables and arithmetic were independently checked. No behavioral tests or documentation build were needed for this documentation-only change.

MaxGhenis and others added 2 commits October 24, 2026 22:52
@MaxGhenis
Merge remote-tracking branch 'origin/main' into ni-business-rates-reg…
8314a29 
…ional-district
@MaxGhenis @claude
Qualify the OBR NI business rates mapping and cite the district rate …
2f673c5 
…transfers

Review r1 asked for the OBR line's coverage to be stated as a reading, not a
fact, since the OBR does not define it. Add the NI Consolidated Fund's
district rate transfers (£0.81bn of £1.59bn in 2024-25) as primary evidence
of the district share, call the poundage split an estimate, note that LPS
counts mixed properties as non-domestic, and label the 2026-27 partition
figure as projected.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis
MaxGhenis marked this pull request as ready for review October 25, 2026 03:02
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github-actions Bot commented Oct 25, 2026 •
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Aggregate impact on certified data: pass

Base e54d354f66 against head fc16beeae0, both on enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5 (policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1, sha256 056e80fd8e91), fiscal years 2025-26 to 2031-32. Each year is a full microsimulation run on each side.

Checks: 0 broken by this change, 1 failing on both sides, 0 fixed. Moves flagged for review: 0 (thresholds in report_spec.yaml; a flag does not fail the job).

Workflow run and full report

Notes

  • This change edits the fiscal partition; review the partition diff alongside the moves it explains.
  • In the years a figure from fewer than 10 records is suppressed (spending.disabled_students_allowance), every total containing it, and the decile incomes, are rebuilt from their other components, so no published total includes it. Those totals are marked †. A change is withheld where the two sides leave out different figures and can't be lined up.

Moves flagged for review

None.

Spending by benefit and service

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed

Caseloads

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed

Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance)

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise additional rate by 3pp 0 0 0 0 0 suppressed suppressed

Standard reforms: change in each reform's target

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax 0 0 0 0 0 suppressed suppressed

Household net income by decile

No household's net income changes in any year.

No change in any year: receipts by tax head; government balance, each component counted once; model totals; household income totals; population; poverty rates; people in poverty; inequality; mean household net income in each side's own deciles.

Checks failing on both base and head (1)
  • VAT excluding private school fees is never negative (sign:vat): 2025-26: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-53,889,156 in total; 2026-27: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-55,420,387 in total; 2027-28: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-56,618,038 in total
Counted-once check

Each of 88 components was raised by £1 per unit in 2026-27, and every head of its totals was read household by household: its own head must rise by exactly £1, no other tax head may move, no other benefit may rise, and the model's own total must move by what its heads moved. A head that breaks a rule is measured again twice: with every other head held at its baseline value, and with every other head held at its value after the first £1 while the component rises again. It fails where either still shows the response. 0 failed; 0 were skipped.

  • widowed_parents_allowance: pension_credit responds only through other heads in fewer than 10 households (other heads that moved there: carers_allowance; gov_spending; not a failure)
  • widowed_parents_allowance: pension_credit responds only through other heads in fewer than 10 households (other heads that moved there: carers_allowance; household_benefits; not a failure)
Provenance
Side Commit Runtime Environment hash Partition hash Time
base main e54d354f66 uk 2.157.3 (files d2761950380e), core 3.33.2, py 3.13.17 aarch64 1f7921669013 f7d4b2145ebb 1682.63s
head #2344 merged into main fc16beeae0 uk 2.157.3 (files f3be388500bd), core 3.33.2, py 3.13.17 aarch64 1f7921669013 9a54a111ed04 1675.84s

Dataset: hf://policyengine/policyengine-uk-data-private/enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5@2526edbbb687a3b54dbb11272e5389e4b62d2ac2, sha256 056e80fd8e9151d78f432a25cde863340baee81304c6216a37fb575ce8563784 (verified on both sides), policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1.

Receipts by tax head: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Income tax £298.70bn £318.31bn £335.60bn £350.52bn £365.79bn £383.53bn £401.03bn
National Insurance (employee and self-employed) £52.37bn £54.71bn £56.48bn £58.15bn £60.22bn £62.11bn £64.44bn
National Insurance (employer) £152.00bn £158.47bn £163.28bn £167.71bn £174.87bn £180.28bn £187.05bn
Employer NI change borne by capital £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Employer NI change borne by consumers £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Capital gains tax £12.61bn £13.05bn £13.53bn £14.02bn £14.52bn £15.05bn £15.58bn
Student loan repayments £7.79bn £8.09bn £8.31bn £8.51bn £8.72bn £8.97bn £9.28bn
VAT excluding private school fees £249.37bn £255.28bn £261.81bn £267.87bn £274.12bn £280.56bn £286.81bn
Change in VAT from its baseline £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
VAT on private school fees £1.95bn £2.00bn £2.05bn £2.10bn £2.21bn £2.21bn £2.31bn
Change in private school VAT from its baseline £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Fuel duties £24.53bn £24.64bn £26.64bn £26.69bn £26.42bn £25.76bn £26.35bn
Alcohol duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Tobacco duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Vehicle excise duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Betting and gaming duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
TV licence fee £4.26bn £4.41bn £4.42bn £4.44bn £4.45bn £4.47bn £4.48bn
Council tax £49.21bn £51.88bn £54.97bn £58.29bn £61.55bn £64.92bn £68.49bn
High value council tax surcharge £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.48bn £0.49bn £0.50bn £0.51bn
Northern Ireland domestic rates £0.55bn £0.58bn £0.60bn £0.63bn £0.66bn £0.69bn £0.72bn
Business rates £34.68bn £38.04bn £38.88bn £39.76bn £43.07bn £43.13bn £44.57bn
Stamp duty land tax on the household's own purchases £6.90bn £7.39bn £7.81bn £8.21bn £8.62bn £9.02bn £9.42bn
Stamp duty land tax paid by companies £4.81bn £5.98bn £6.73bn £7.46bn £8.21bn £8.87bn £9.16bn
Land transaction tax (Wales) £0.07bn £0.08bn £0.09bn £0.09bn £0.10bn £0.10bn £0.11bn
Land and buildings transaction tax (Scotland) £0.31bn £0.32bn £0.34bn £0.35bn £0.37bn £0.38bn £0.40bn
Unspecified tax change borne by capital £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Unspecified tax change borne by consumers £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Wealth tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Wealth tax excluding the main residence £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Land value tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Carbon tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Spending by benefit and service: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
State Pension £121.64bn £126.07bn £127.08bn £128.87bn £132.52bn £136.31bn £140.08bn
Pension Credit £6.66bn £7.04bn £7.32bn £7.46bn £7.60bn £7.77bn £7.94bn
Winter Fuel Payment £1.86bn £1.86bn £1.80bn £1.78bn £1.79bn £1.79bn £1.80bn
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland) £0.19bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.21bn £0.21bn £0.22bn £0.22bn
Universal Credit £75.21bn £80.38bn £82.93bn £84.23bn £85.58bn £86.87bn £87.97bn
Housing Benefit £8.55bn £8.89bn £9.17bn £9.31bn £9.57bn £9.83bn £10.10bn
Council Tax Reduction £1.98bn £2.02bn £2.07bn £2.11bn £2.16bn £2.21bn £2.25bn
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related) £0.79bn £0.81bn £0.83bn £0.85bn £0.86bn £0.89bn £0.90bn
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based) £5.20bn £5.34bn £5.46bn £5.59bn £5.72bn £5.85bn £5.99bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based) £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based) £0.29bn £0.30bn £0.30bn £0.31bn £0.32bn £0.32bn £0.33bn
Income Support £0.12bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Working Tax Credit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Child Tax Credit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Incapacity Benefit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Personal Independence Payment £26.94bn £28.06bn £29.13bn £29.83bn £30.54bn £31.26bn £31.96bn
Disability Living Allowance £7.49bn £7.80bn £8.10bn £8.29bn £8.49bn £8.69bn £8.88bn
Attendance Allowance £8.68bn £9.04bn £9.38bn £9.61bn £9.83bn £10.07bn £10.29bn
Carer's Allowance £4.48bn £4.67bn £4.84bn £4.96bn £5.08bn £5.19bn £5.31bn
Carer Support Payment (Scotland) £0.31bn £0.32bn £0.33bn £0.34bn £0.35bn £0.36bn £0.37bn
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland) £0.00bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn
Severe Disablement Allowance £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit £0.50bn £0.52bn £0.53bn £0.54bn £0.55bn £0.57bn £0.58bn
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme £0.61bn £0.62bn £0.64bn £0.65bn £0.67bn £0.68bn £0.70bn
War Widow's or Widower's Pension £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Child Benefit £16.16bn £16.83bn £17.43bn £17.85bn £18.26bn £18.69bn £19.10bn
Scottish Child Payment £0.49bn £0.52bn £0.54bn £0.55bn £0.56bn £0.57bn £0.56bn
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual) £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Healthy Start vouchers £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn
Maternity Allowance £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Statutory Maternity Pay £3.30bn £3.39bn £3.47bn £3.55bn £3.63bn £3.72bn £3.80bn
Statutory Paternity Pay £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Statutory Sick Pay £1.12bn £1.15bn £1.18bn £1.21bn £1.24bn £1.27bn £1.29bn
Sure Start Maternity Grant £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn
Bereavement Support Payment £0.67bn £0.69bn £0.70bn £0.72bn £0.73bn £0.75bn £0.77bn
Widowed Parent's Allowance £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Tax-Free Childcare £0.55bn £0.56bn £0.57bn £0.58bn £0.59bn £0.61bn £0.59bn
Extended childcare entitlement £2.99bn £3.50bn £3.60bn £3.67bn £3.77bn £3.85bn £3.94bn
Universal childcare entitlement £2.05bn £2.23bn £2.28bn £2.34bn £2.40bn £2.47bn £2.52bn
Targeted childcare entitlement £0.50bn £0.51bn £0.52bn £0.53bn £0.54bn £0.56bn £0.52bn
Childcare Offer for Wales £0.26bn £0.28bn £0.28bn £0.29bn £0.30bn £0.30bn £0.31bn
Care to Learn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Childcare Grant £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Parents' Learning Allowance £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn
Adult Dependants' Grant £0.06bn £0.06bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn
Travel Grant £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
NHS spending £203.83bn £204.54bn £205.13bn £205.79bn £206.49bn £207.23bn £207.73bn
State education spending £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn
Transport subsidy spending £25.05bn £25.13bn £25.21bn £25.29bn £25.37bn £25.46bn £25.53bn
Cost-of-living support payment £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Energy Bills Rebate £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Basic income £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Disability basic income £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Other public spending budget change £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Caseloads: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
State Pension 11,261k 11,158k 10,849k 10,746k 10,783k 10,822k 10,848k
Pension Credit 1,485k 1,483k 1,480k 1,461k 1,462k 1,464k 1,460k
Winter Fuel Payment 7,842k 7,793k 7,494k 7,407k 7,432k 7,459k 7,477k
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland) 803k 803k 803k 800k 803k 806k 808k
Universal Credit 6,334k 6,341k 6,366k 6,347k 6,345k 6,333k 6,298k
Housing Benefit 1,249k 1,247k 1,250k 1,234k 1,238k 1,240k 1,239k
Council Tax Reduction 3,174k 3,198k 3,208k 3,228k 3,243k 3,256k 3,263k
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related) 71k 71k 71k 71k 71k 72k 72k
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based) 719k 721k 723k 726k 728k 731k 732k
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based) 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based) 67k 67k 67k 68k 68k 68k 68k
Income Support 25k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Working Tax Credit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Child Tax Credit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Incapacity Benefit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Personal Independence Payment 3,566k 3,579k 3,589k 3,601k 3,613k 3,626k 3,635k
Disability Living Allowance 1,291k 1,295k 1,299k 1,303k 1,308k 1,312k 1,316k
Attendance Allowance 1,694k 1,700k 1,705k 1,711k 1,716k 1,723k 1,727k
Carer's Allowance 1,034k 1,038k 1,041k 1,044k 1,048k 1,051k 1,053k
Carer Support Payment (Scotland) 71k 71k 72k 72k 72k 72k 73k
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland) 0k 71k 72k 72k 72k 72k 73k
Severe Disablement Allowance 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit 137k 137k 138k 138k 139k 139k 140k
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme 93k 93k 94k 94k 94k 95k 95k
War Widow's or Widower's Pension 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Child Benefit 8,102k 8,128k 8,142k 8,165k 8,191k 8,216k 8,232k
Scottish Child Payment 350k 352k 353k 357k 354k 355k 342k
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual) 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Healthy Start vouchers 199k 200k 201k 201k 202k 203k 203k
Maternity Allowance 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Statutory Maternity Pay 332k 334k 335k 336k 337k 338k 339k
Statutory Paternity Pay 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Statutory Sick Pay 181k 182k 182k 183k 183k 184k 185k
Sure Start Maternity Grant 26k 26k 26k 26k 26k 27k 27k
Bereavement Support Payment 98k 98k 98k 99k 99k 99k 100k
Widowed Parent's Allowance 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Tax-Free Childcare 1,014k 1,024k 1,024k 1,027k 1,027k 1,031k 1,013k
Extended childcare entitlement 796k 801k 806k 809k 815k 819k 820k
Universal childcare entitlement 1,071k 1,074k 1,077k 1,080k 1,086k 1,096k 1,097k
Targeted childcare entitlement 165k 156k 154k 155k 155k 156k 144k
Childcare Offer for Wales 39k 39k 39k 39k 39k 39k 39k
Care to Learn 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Childcare Grant 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Parents' Learning Allowance 98k 98k 99k 99k 99k 100k 100k
Adult Dependants' Grant 18k 18k 12k 12k 12k 13k 13k
Travel Grant 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Cost-of-living support payment 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Energy Bills Rebate 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Basic income 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Disability basic income 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Government balance, each component counted once: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Government receipts, each component once £900.12bn £943.23bn £981.52bn £1,015.29bn £1,054.39bn £1,090.56bn £1,130.72bn
Government spending £528.87bn † £543.67bn † £551.43bn † £557.71bn † £566.13bn † £574.77bn † £582.73bn †
Government balance, each receipt once £371.25bn † £399.56bn † £430.10bn † £457.58bn † £488.27bn † £515.79bn † £547.98bn †
Benefits in household_benefits but not in gov_spending £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Model totals: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
gov_tax £900.12bn £943.23bn £981.52bn £1,015.29bn £1,054.39bn £1,090.56bn £1,130.72bn
household_tax £496.79bn £527.48bn £554.39bn £577.61bn £603.19bn £627.52bn £654.55bn
pre_budget_change_household_tax £489.00bn £519.39bn £546.08bn £568.63bn £593.98bn £618.05bn £644.75bn
gov_spending £528.87bn † £543.67bn † £551.43bn † £557.71bn † £566.13bn † £574.77bn † £582.73bn †
household_benefits £528.87bn † £543.67bn † £551.43bn † £557.71bn † £566.13bn † £574.77bn † £582.73bn †
gov_balance £371.25bn † £399.56bn † £430.10bn † £457.58bn † £488.27bn † £515.79bn † £547.98bn †
Household income totals: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Household market income £1,651.49bn £1,713.03bn £1,764.05bn £1,812.97bn £1,862.19bn £1,918.39bn £1,985.28bn
Household net income £1,644.46bn † £1,688.65bn † £1,719.42bn † £1,750.39bn † £1,781.36bn † £1,820.67bn † £1,866.89bn †
Household net income (HBAI definition) £1,457.62bn £1,504.74bn £1,537.75bn £1,569.43bn £1,602.65bn £1,640.37bn £1,686.54bn
Population: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
People 69,224k 69,466k 69,668k 69,891k 70,128k 70,381k 70,550k
Benefit units 35,100k 35,223k 35,325k 35,438k 35,558k 35,686k 35,772k
Households 31,037k 31,145k 31,236k 31,336k 31,442k 31,555k 31,631k
Poverty rates: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone 15.9% 15.1% 15.5% 15.6% 15.7% 15.7% 15.8%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children 24.0% 21.1% 21.5% 21.5% 21.7% 21.7% 21.8%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 13.8% 13.5% 14.0% 14.1% 14.2% 14.2% 14.3%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 13.6% 13.2% 13.1% 13.4% 13.5% 13.5% 13.5%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone 21.4% 20.8% 21.2% 21.5% 21.8% 21.9% 22.2%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children 33.0% 30.7% 31.0% 31.1% 31.4% 31.7% 32.3%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 19.8% 19.6% 20.2% 20.5% 20.7% 20.9% 21.1%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 12.7% 12.3% 12.3% 12.5% 12.9% 12.9% 13.0%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone 17.2% 16.4% 16.5% 16.4% 16.3% 16.4% 16.6%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children 26.2% 23.5% 23.4% 23.1% 22.8% 23.0% 23.3%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 14.6% 14.3% 14.7% 14.7% 14.6% 14.7% 14.9%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 15.0% 14.8% 14.1% 14.1% 14.0% 14.0% 14.2%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone 21.6% 21.0% 21.2% 21.2% 21.3% 21.4% 21.8%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children 33.2% 31.2% 30.9% 30.7% 31.0% 31.0% 31.5%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 19.9% 19.8% 20.1% 20.3% 20.4% 20.5% 20.7%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 12.9% 12.4% 12.1% 11.8% 11.8% 11.9% 12.8%
People in poverty: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone 11,039k 10,465k 10,769k 10,890k 10,992k 11,057k 11,136k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children 3,579k 3,171k 3,230k 3,240k 3,280k 3,300k 3,324k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 5,843k 5,744k 6,034k 6,134k 6,183k 6,218k 6,267k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 1,616k 1,550k 1,504k 1,517k 1,530k 1,539k 1,545k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone 14,840k 14,418k 14,804k 15,005k 15,265k 15,430k 15,663k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children 4,937k 4,609k 4,667k 4,687k 4,755k 4,820k 4,919k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 8,401k 8,356k 8,734k 8,907k 9,048k 9,135k 9,257k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 1,503k 1,453k 1,404k 1,412k 1,461k 1,475k 1,487k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone 11,889k 11,389k 11,463k 11,483k 11,421k 11,523k 11,707k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children 3,915k 3,517k 3,517k 3,489k 3,449k 3,489k 3,549k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 6,197k 6,128k 6,335k 6,397k 6,384k 6,437k 6,537k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 1,776k 1,744k 1,611k 1,597k 1,587k 1,596k 1,621k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone 14,943k 14,585k 14,741k 14,808k 14,951k 15,039k 15,362k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children 4,967k 4,674k 4,650k 4,630k 4,691k 4,712k 4,793k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 8,441k 8,448k 8,700k 8,836k 8,916k 8,976k 9,106k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 1,535k 1,463k 1,391k 1,342k 1,344k 1,352k 1,463k
Inequality: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Gini coefficient, equivalised HBAI income before housing costs 0.3084 0.3058 0.3064 0.3071 0.3075 0.3081 0.3096
Mean household net income in each side's own deciles: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household £17,768 † £17,862 † £17,836 † £17,888 † £18,172 † £18,307 † £18,443 †
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household £27,982 † £28,857 † £28,628 † £28,890 † £29,105 † £29,623 † £30,135 †
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household £34,380 † £35,464 † £36,042 † £36,505 † £36,776 † £37,317 † £38,131 †
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household £39,272 † £40,694 † £41,877 † £42,377 † £43,098 † £43,915 † £44,181 †
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household £43,318 † £44,626 † £45,562 † £46,292 † £47,361 † £48,268 † £49,576 †
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household £48,188 † £49,519 † £50,747 † £51,489 † £52,191 † £53,186 † £54,241 †
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household £56,167 † £57,131 † £57,764 † £58,177 † £58,914 † £59,920 † £61,824 †
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household £69,200 † £70,962 † £71,797 † £73,234 † £74,254 † £75,668 † £77,426 †
Decile 9: mean household_net_income per household £79,493 † £81,039 † £82,842 † £84,144 † £85,534 † £87,055 † £89,936 †
Decile 10: mean household_net_income per household £117,577 † £120,291 † £121,928 † £124,157 † £126,037 † £128,333 † £131,101 †
Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance): head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp £6.47bn £6.76bn £6.67bn £6.86bn £7.06bn £7.35bn £7.55bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp £3.69bn £3.98bn £4.03bn £4.29bn £4.46bn £4.78bn £4.91bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year £-3.82bn £-3.94bn £-4.01bn £-4.09bn £-4.18bn £-4.18bn £-2.00bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child £-1.99bn £-1.75bn £-1.56bn £-1.46bn £-1.35bn £-1.24bn £-1.12bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20% £-20.39bn £-20.96bn £-21.38bn £-21.57bn £-21.87bn £-22.17bn £-22.60bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10% £11.02bn £11.42bn £11.77bn £12.07bn £12.37bn £12.75bn £13.07bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp £24.89bn £25.55bn £26.14bn £26.75bn £27.39bn £28.03bn £28.66bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp £2.96bn £3.21bn £3.26bn £3.46bn £3.65bn suppressed suppressed
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10% £-3.02bn £-3.15bn £-3.26bn £-3.30bn £-3.34bn £-3.39bn £-3.44bn
Raise the State Pension by 10% £-7.79bn £-8.02bn £-8.01bn £-8.12bn £-8.43bn £-8.54bn £-8.87bn
Standard reforms: change in each reform's target: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp: change in income_tax £6.61bn £6.91bn £6.83bn £7.03bn £7.24bn £7.47bn £7.73bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp: change in income_tax £3.69bn £3.99bn £4.04bn £4.25bn £4.47bn £4.74bn £4.93bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year: change in income_tax £-3.95bn £-4.08bn £-4.17bn £-4.24bn £-4.34bn £-4.41bn £-1.76bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child: change in child_benefit £2.33bn £2.14bn £1.95bn £1.84bn £1.73bn £1.62bn £1.50bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%: change in universal_credit £20.39bn £20.95bn £21.37bn £21.62bn £21.87bn £22.22bn £22.61bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%: change in national_insurance £11.28bn £11.74bn £12.06bn £12.37bn £12.69bn £13.03bn £13.49bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp: change in vat £24.69bn £25.35bn £25.94bn £26.54bn £27.17bn £27.81bn £28.43bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax £2.96bn £3.21bn £3.26bn £3.46bn £3.66bn suppressed suppressed
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%: change in universal_credit £3.02bn £3.15bn £3.26bn £3.32bn £3.39bn £3.44bn £3.48bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%: change in state_pension £10.68bn £11.18bn £11.31bn £11.55bn £12.00bn £12.44bn £12.94bn

@MaxGhenis @claude
Describe Scotland's business rates series as a nominal pool contribution
50a0c42 
Review r2: the Scottish workbook defines the contributable amount as "the
nominal contribution to the non-domestic rates pool", so the header no longer
says councils pay it into the pool.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis

MaxGhenis commented Oct 25, 2026

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Handed to the UK hub (session local_cc5241da-d81d-47c5-9a8a-400c640aa30d, which is archiving).

  • Head: 50a0c42e0cb07e31d14e75f7b7ea7e600cf1b389. The base is main, after Update corporate SDLT and business rates statistics and project them with OBR receipts #2322 merged; origin/main was merged in at 8314a29.
  • Independent review: GPT-6.1 Sol r3 APPROVE at this head. The two earlier rounds requested changes, and all of their findings are resolved.
    • r1, at 1432062: ten findings.
    • r2, at 2f673c5: two MEDIUM and three LOW.
    • Verdicts: ~/reviews/ni-business-rates-reconciliation-2026-10-11/review/review_r{1,2,3}.md.
  • Maintainer review: @juaristi22 approved at 1432062. Later commits change documentation wording only.
  • CI: gh pr checks exit 0 at this head. All 18 checks pass, including Test 1-5/5, YAML and Aggregate impact. MERGEABLE.
  • Local tests: test_fiscal_partition.py and test_corporate_receipts_statistics.py: 182 passed after merging main.
  • Scope: documentation only. No values, formulas or aggregates change.
  • Pending: nothing on this PR. What remains is merge order and the merge itself. It touches fiscal_partition.yaml (the business_rates data note only), so check other open PRs that edit that file.
  • Depends on: nothing (Update corporate SDLT and business rates statistics and project them with OBR receipts #2322 is merged).
  • Decision: d2001 (low priority) asks Max whether the NI business rates index should follow d870's poundage pattern. It does not block or close with this PR, because the documentation here describes the current index.
  • Follow-ups (not in this PR):
    • The domestic_rates partition note could say exactly where the OBR records NI domestic rates: Table 3.2 at £485m, and the flat £494m inside Table 4.1.
    • LPS's combined "by sector" CSV swaps the Mid Ulster and Mid and East Antrim labels in its 2025-26 columns. The model reads the separate files, so it is unaffected.
    • Optional: earlier ONS FT6M/FT6N vintages, and an explicit OBR coverage bridge.

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MaxGhenis added this pull request to the merge queue Oct 25, 2026
This was referenced Oct 25, 2026
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Merged via the queue into main with commit 20cb817 Oct 25, 2026
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MaxGhenis deleted the ni-business-rates-regional-district branch October 25, 2026 09:52
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MaxGhenis commented Oct 25, 2026

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Merged by the UK hub (Claude session 8e19f9d5) at head 50a0c42e0, through the merge queue with the head pinned. Its owner session handed it to the hub at 08:09Z (hand-off).

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@MaxGhenis

MaxGhenis commented Oct 25, 2026

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Merged by the UK hub (Claude session 8e19f9d5) at head 50a0c42e0, through the merge queue with the head pinned. Its owner session handed it to the hub at 08:09Z (hand-off).

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Northern Ireland business rates statistic is twice the OBR NI line: regional vs district rates

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@MaxGhenis @juaristi22