[vahid-ahmadi]

Summary

Part of #1862 (this is the rail_usage item; the savings_interest_income item is #2638, so #1862 stays open until both merge). gov.dft.rail.ridership_index did not match ORR: on a 2020-21 = 1.0 base it had 0.40 for 2021-22 and 0.95 for 2024-25, where ORR's journeys give 2.55 and 4.46. And rail_usage was never projected: it was not in uprating_indices.yaml, and the index ended in 2029, so the post-2030 fallback ratio was 1.

• History: the index is now ORR Table 1220 passenger journeys (published 18 June 2026) over the 2020-21 figure, financial year t-(t+1) stored at t-01-01, up to 2025-26. 2025-26 growth is 1,829.47 / 1,728.70 - 1 = +5.83%; the old index had +1.9%.
• Forecast: no official body forecasts passenger journeys, so the index is held at its 2025-26 level from 2026-27. This is a stated assumption on the parameter.
• Per person: household weights grow by ons.population, so each household's rail_usage grows by journeys growth net of population growth, a new series yoy_growth.orr.per_capita.rail_passenger_journeys (2025: (4.7165 / 4.4567) / 1.0030 - 1 = +5.51% on main's March 2026 population vintage; from 2026, 1 / (1 + population) - 1 for every year ons.population covers, to 2073). The weighted total then follows ORR's journeys and stays flat from 2026-27. rail_usage now declares that series' indices twin, is listed under it, and leaves KNOWN_UNUPRATED.

What reads the index

Only rail_usage's uprating did; no formula reads gov.dft.rail.ridership_index (the bus fares code has its own gov.dft.bus.ridership_index). The index stays as the sourced series, and a test ties the per-person growth to it and to ons.population. rail_usage feeds rail_subsidy_spending (= rail_usage x fare_index), which feeds dft_subsidy_spending and so household_benefits and household_net_income.

Aggregate effect

On the Enhanced FRS 2024-25 (cached release, sha256 5ba399ea...b960b6): rail_usage rises 5.51% per household against main from 2025, but no output changes. The dataset stores rail_subsidy_spending itself (£21.45bn in 2024), so the formula that reads rail_usage is not used, and the stored column grows only with the weights (the same on main and this branch). This PR changes outputs only for a dataset that supplies rail_usage without rail_subsidy_spending. On such a dataset, 2025-26 rail subsidy would be 5.51% higher than on main.

Not in this PR

• The stored rail_subsidy_spending also means gov.dft.rail.fare_index reforms have no effect on that dataset. That is a pre-existing data question for policyengine-uk-data, not changed here.
• policyengine-uk-data's rail scaler (calibrate_rail_subsidy_spending) simulates through policyengine-uk at the calibration year. Its comment in create_datasets.py says policyengine-uk carries rail_usage forward unchanged; after this PR it grows by the series above.
• The savings_interest_income item of rail_usage and savings_interest_income are still not uprated by the index they declare #1862 is Project savings interest by interest received per person #2638.

Tests

policyengine_uk/tests/test_rail_usage_uprating.py: the index against ORR's journeys, the flat years, the per-person series against the index and ons.population, and a projected two-household dataset whose weighted total grows by ORR's 5.83% into 2025-26 and stays flat to 2032-33 (PROJECTION_END_YEAR); the per-person series is checked against the index and ons.population in every population year. On the first push 21 of 22 failed on main (the 2020-21 base value of 1.0 passes on both). test_projection_horizon.py and test_uprating_inputs_reach_data.py named rail_usage and its old index as the example post-2030 fallback; they now use employee_pension_contributions_reported and assert rail_usage is no longer a fallback.

Reproducer: policyengine_uk/tests/test_rail_usage_uprating.py::test_ridership_index_is_orr_journeys_on_a_2020_21_base, policyengine_uk/tests/test_rail_usage_uprating.py::test_journeys_are_held_flat_after_2025_26, policyengine_uk/tests/test_rail_usage_uprating.py::test_per_person_growth_is_journeys_growth_net_of_population_growth, policyengine_uk/tests/test_rail_usage_uprating.py::test_projected_rail_usage_tracks_orr_journeys

axiom: n/a: dataset uprating and transport usage data, no policy rule changes

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

[github-actions]

Aggregate impact on certified data: pass

Base ae7d0a73a5 against head e5210873e5, both on enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5 (policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1, sha256 056e80fd8e91), fiscal years 2025-26 to 2031-32. Each year is a full microsimulation run on each side.

Checks: 0 broken by this change, 1 failing on both sides, 0 fixed. Moves flagged for review: 0 (thresholds in report_spec.yaml; a flag does not fail the job).

Workflow run and full report

Notes

• In the years a figure from fewer than 10 records is suppressed (spending.disabled_students_allowance), every total containing it, and the decile incomes, are rebuilt from their other components, so no published total includes it. Those totals are marked †. A change is withheld where the two sides leave out different figures and can't be lined up.

Moves flagged for review

None.

Spending by benefit and service

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed

Caseloads

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed

Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance)

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise additional rate by 3pp	0	0	0	0	0	suppressed	suppressed

Standard reforms: change in each reform's target

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax	0	0	0	0	0	suppressed	suppressed

Household net income by decile

No household's net income changes in any year.

No change in any year: receipts by tax head; government balance, each component counted once; model totals; household income totals; population; poverty rates; people in poverty; inequality; mean household net income in each side's own deciles.

Checks failing on both base and head (1)

• VAT excluding private school fees is never negative (sign:vat): 2025-26: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-53,889,156 in total; 2026-27: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-55,420,387 in total; 2027-28: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-56,618,038 in total

Counted-once check

Each of 88 components was raised by £1 per unit in 2026-27, and every head of its totals was read household by household: its own head must rise by exactly £1, no other tax head may move, no other benefit may rise, and the model's own total must move by what its heads moved. A head that breaks a rule is measured again twice: with every other head held at its baseline value, and with every other head held at its value after the first £1 while the component rises again. It fails where either still shows the response. 0 failed; 0 were skipped.

• widowed_parents_allowance: pension_credit responds only through other heads in fewer than 10 households (other heads that moved there: carers_allowance; gov_spending; not a failure)
• widowed_parents_allowance: pension_credit responds only through other heads in fewer than 10 households (other heads that moved there: carers_allowance; household_benefits; not a failure)

Provenance

Side	Commit	Runtime	Environment hash	Partition hash	Time
base	main ae7d0a73a5	uk 2.158.3 (files 1c541983837f), core 3.33.2, py 3.13.17 aarch64	ea5a2478c6d1	9a54a111ed04	1736.98s
head	#2639 merged into main e5210873e5	uk 2.158.3 (files 44b1684ef568), core 3.33.2, py 3.13.17 aarch64	ea5a2478c6d1	9a54a111ed04	1732.13s

Dataset: hf://policyengine/policyengine-uk-data-private/enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5@2526edbbb687a3b54dbb11272e5389e4b62d2ac2, sha256 056e80fd8e9151d78f432a25cde863340baee81304c6216a37fb575ce8563784 (verified on both sides), policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1.

Receipts by tax head: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Income tax	£298.70bn	£318.31bn	£335.60bn	£350.52bn	£365.79bn	£383.53bn	£401.03bn
National Insurance (employee and self-employed)	£52.37bn	£54.71bn	£56.48bn	£58.15bn	£60.22bn	£62.11bn	£64.44bn
National Insurance (employer)	£152.00bn	£158.47bn	£163.28bn	£167.71bn	£174.87bn	£180.28bn	£187.05bn
Employer NI change borne by capital	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Employer NI change borne by consumers	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Capital gains tax	£12.61bn	£13.05bn	£13.53bn	£14.02bn	£14.52bn	£15.05bn	£15.58bn
Student loan repayments	£7.79bn	£8.09bn	£8.31bn	£8.51bn	£8.72bn	£8.97bn	£9.28bn
VAT excluding private school fees	£249.37bn	£255.28bn	£261.81bn	£267.87bn	£274.12bn	£280.56bn	£286.81bn
Change in VAT from its baseline	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
VAT on private school fees	£1.95bn	£2.00bn	£2.05bn	£2.10bn	£2.21bn	£2.21bn	£2.31bn
Change in private school VAT from its baseline	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Fuel duties	£24.53bn	£24.64bn	£26.64bn	£26.69bn	£26.42bn	£25.76bn	£26.35bn
Alcohol duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Tobacco duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Vehicle excise duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Betting and gaming duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
TV licence fee	£4.26bn	£4.41bn	£4.42bn	£4.44bn	£4.45bn	£4.47bn	£4.48bn
Council tax	£49.21bn	£51.88bn	£54.97bn	£58.29bn	£61.55bn	£64.92bn	£68.49bn
High value council tax surcharge	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.48bn	£0.49bn	£0.50bn	£0.51bn
Northern Ireland domestic rates	£0.55bn	£0.58bn	£0.60bn	£0.63bn	£0.66bn	£0.69bn	£0.72bn
Business rates	£34.68bn	£38.04bn	£38.88bn	£39.76bn	£43.07bn	£43.13bn	£44.57bn
Stamp duty land tax on the household's own purchases	£6.90bn	£7.39bn	£7.81bn	£8.21bn	£8.62bn	£9.02bn	£9.42bn
Stamp duty land tax paid by companies	£4.81bn	£5.98bn	£6.73bn	£7.46bn	£8.21bn	£8.87bn	£9.16bn
Land transaction tax (Wales)	£0.07bn	£0.08bn	£0.09bn	£0.09bn	£0.10bn	£0.10bn	£0.11bn
Land and buildings transaction tax (Scotland)	£0.31bn	£0.32bn	£0.34bn	£0.35bn	£0.37bn	£0.38bn	£0.40bn
Unspecified tax change borne by capital	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Unspecified tax change borne by consumers	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Wealth tax	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Wealth tax excluding the main residence	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Land value tax	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Carbon tax	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn

Spending by benefit and service: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
State Pension	£121.64bn	£126.07bn	£127.08bn	£128.87bn	£132.52bn	£136.31bn	£140.08bn
Pension Credit	£6.66bn	£7.04bn	£7.32bn	£7.46bn	£7.60bn	£7.77bn	£7.94bn
Winter Fuel Payment	£1.86bn	£1.86bn	£1.80bn	£1.78bn	£1.79bn	£1.79bn	£1.80bn
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland)	£0.19bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.21bn	£0.21bn	£0.22bn	£0.22bn
Universal Credit	£75.21bn	£80.38bn	£82.93bn	£84.23bn	£85.58bn	£86.87bn	£87.97bn
Housing Benefit	£8.55bn	£8.89bn	£9.17bn	£9.31bn	£9.58bn	£9.84bn	£10.10bn
Council Tax Reduction	£1.98bn	£2.02bn	£2.07bn	£2.11bn	£2.16bn	£2.21bn	£2.25bn
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related)	£0.79bn	£0.81bn	£0.83bn	£0.85bn	£0.86bn	£0.89bn	£0.90bn
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based)	£5.20bn	£5.34bn	£5.46bn	£5.59bn	£5.72bn	£5.85bn	£5.99bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based)	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based)	£0.29bn	£0.30bn	£0.30bn	£0.31bn	£0.32bn	£0.32bn	£0.33bn
Income Support	£0.12bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Working Tax Credit	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Child Tax Credit	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Incapacity Benefit	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Personal Independence Payment	£26.94bn	£28.06bn	£29.13bn	£29.83bn	£30.54bn	£31.26bn	£31.96bn
Disability Living Allowance	£7.49bn	£7.80bn	£8.10bn	£8.29bn	£8.49bn	£8.69bn	£8.88bn
Attendance Allowance	£8.68bn	£9.04bn	£9.38bn	£9.61bn	£9.83bn	£10.07bn	£10.29bn
Carer's Allowance	£4.48bn	£4.67bn	£4.84bn	£4.96bn	£5.08bn	£5.19bn	£5.31bn
Carer Support Payment (Scotland)	£0.31bn	£0.32bn	£0.33bn	£0.34bn	£0.35bn	£0.36bn	£0.37bn
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland)	£0.00bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn
Severe Disablement Allowance	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit	£0.50bn	£0.52bn	£0.53bn	£0.54bn	£0.55bn	£0.57bn	£0.58bn
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme	£0.61bn	£0.62bn	£0.64bn	£0.65bn	£0.67bn	£0.68bn	£0.70bn
War Widow's or Widower's Pension	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Child Benefit	£16.16bn	£16.83bn	£17.43bn	£17.85bn	£18.26bn	£18.69bn	£19.10bn
Scottish Child Payment	£0.49bn	£0.52bn	£0.54bn	£0.55bn	£0.56bn	£0.57bn	£0.56bn
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual)	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Healthy Start vouchers	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn
Maternity Allowance	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Statutory Maternity Pay	£3.30bn	£3.39bn	£3.47bn	£3.55bn	£3.63bn	£3.72bn	£3.80bn
Statutory Paternity Pay	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Statutory Sick Pay	£1.12bn	£1.15bn	£1.18bn	£1.21bn	£1.24bn	£1.27bn	£1.29bn
Sure Start Maternity Grant	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn
Bereavement Support Payment	£0.67bn	£0.69bn	£0.70bn	£0.72bn	£0.73bn	£0.75bn	£0.77bn
Widowed Parent's Allowance	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Tax-Free Childcare	£0.55bn	£0.56bn	£0.57bn	£0.58bn	£0.59bn	£0.61bn	£0.59bn
Extended childcare entitlement	£2.99bn	£3.50bn	£3.60bn	£3.67bn	£3.77bn	£3.85bn	£3.94bn
Universal childcare entitlement	£2.05bn	£2.23bn	£2.28bn	£2.34bn	£2.40bn	£2.47bn	£2.52bn
Targeted childcare entitlement	£0.50bn	£0.51bn	£0.52bn	£0.53bn	£0.54bn	£0.56bn	£0.52bn
Childcare Offer for Wales	£0.26bn	£0.28bn	£0.28bn	£0.29bn	£0.30bn	£0.30bn	£0.31bn
Care to Learn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Childcare Grant	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Parents' Learning Allowance	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn
Adult Dependants' Grant	£0.06bn	£0.06bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn
Travel Grant	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
NHS spending	£203.83bn	£204.54bn	£205.13bn	£205.79bn	£206.49bn	£207.23bn	£207.73bn
State education spending	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn
Transport subsidy spending	£25.05bn	£25.13bn	£25.21bn	£25.29bn	£25.37bn	£25.46bn	£25.53bn
Cost-of-living support payment	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Energy Bills Rebate	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Basic income	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Disability basic income	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Other public spending budget change	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn

Caseloads: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
State Pension	11,261k	11,158k	10,849k	10,746k	10,783k	10,822k	10,848k
Pension Credit	1,485k	1,483k	1,480k	1,461k	1,462k	1,464k	1,460k
Winter Fuel Payment	7,842k	7,793k	7,494k	7,407k	7,432k	7,459k	7,477k
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland)	803k	803k	803k	800k	803k	806k	808k
Universal Credit	6,334k	6,341k	6,366k	6,347k	6,345k	6,333k	6,298k
Housing Benefit	1,249k	1,247k	1,250k	1,234k	1,238k	1,240k	1,239k
Council Tax Reduction	3,175k	3,198k	3,209k	3,229k	3,244k	3,257k	3,264k
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related)	71k	71k	71k	71k	71k	72k	72k
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based)	719k	721k	723k	726k	728k	731k	732k
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based)	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based)	67k	67k	67k	68k	68k	68k	68k
Income Support	25k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Working Tax Credit	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Child Tax Credit	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Incapacity Benefit	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Personal Independence Payment	3,566k	3,579k	3,589k	3,601k	3,613k	3,626k	3,635k
Disability Living Allowance	1,291k	1,295k	1,299k	1,303k	1,308k	1,312k	1,316k
Attendance Allowance	1,694k	1,700k	1,705k	1,711k	1,716k	1,723k	1,727k
Carer's Allowance	1,034k	1,038k	1,041k	1,044k	1,048k	1,051k	1,053k
Carer Support Payment (Scotland)	71k	71k	72k	72k	72k	72k	73k
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland)	0k	71k	72k	72k	72k	72k	73k
Severe Disablement Allowance	4k	4k	4k	4k	4k	4k	4k
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit	137k	137k	138k	138k	139k	139k	140k
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme	93k	93k	94k	94k	94k	95k	95k
War Widow's or Widower's Pension	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Child Benefit	8,102k	8,128k	8,142k	8,165k	8,191k	8,216k	8,232k
Scottish Child Payment	350k	352k	353k	357k	354k	355k	342k
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual)	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Healthy Start vouchers	199k	200k	201k	201k	202k	203k	203k
Maternity Allowance	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Statutory Maternity Pay	332k	334k	335k	336k	337k	338k	339k
Statutory Paternity Pay	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Statutory Sick Pay	181k	182k	182k	183k	183k	184k	185k
Sure Start Maternity Grant	26k	26k	26k	26k	26k	27k	27k
Bereavement Support Payment	98k	98k	98k	99k	99k	99k	100k
Widowed Parent's Allowance	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Tax-Free Childcare	1,014k	1,024k	1,024k	1,027k	1,027k	1,031k	1,013k
Extended childcare entitlement	796k	801k	806k	809k	815k	819k	820k
Universal childcare entitlement	1,071k	1,074k	1,077k	1,080k	1,086k	1,096k	1,097k
Targeted childcare entitlement	165k	156k	154k	155k	155k	156k	144k
Childcare Offer for Wales	39k	39k	39k	39k	39k	39k	39k
Care to Learn	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Childcare Grant	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Parents' Learning Allowance	98k	98k	99k	99k	99k	100k	100k
Adult Dependants' Grant	18k	18k	12k	12k	12k	13k	13k
Travel Grant	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Cost-of-living support payment	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Energy Bills Rebate	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Basic income	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Disability basic income	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k

Government balance, each component counted once: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Government receipts, each component once	£900.12bn	£943.23bn	£981.52bn	£1,015.29bn	£1,054.39bn	£1,090.56bn	£1,130.72bn
Government spending	£528.87bn †	£543.67bn †	£551.43bn †	£557.71bn †	£566.13bn †	£574.77bn †	£582.74bn †
Government balance, each receipt once	£371.25bn †	£399.56bn †	£430.10bn †	£457.58bn †	£488.27bn †	£515.79bn †	£547.98bn †
Benefits in household_benefits but not in gov_spending	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn

Model totals: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
gov_tax	£900.12bn	£943.23bn	£981.52bn	£1,015.29bn	£1,054.39bn	£1,090.56bn	£1,130.72bn
household_tax	£496.79bn	£527.48bn	£554.39bn	£577.61bn	£603.19bn	£627.52bn	£654.55bn
pre_budget_change_household_tax	£489.00bn	£519.39bn	£546.08bn	£568.63bn	£593.98bn	£618.05bn	£644.75bn
gov_spending	£528.87bn †	£543.67bn †	£551.43bn †	£557.71bn †	£566.13bn †	£574.77bn †	£582.74bn †
household_benefits	£528.87bn †	£543.67bn †	£551.43bn †	£557.71bn †	£566.13bn †	£574.77bn †	£582.74bn †
gov_balance	£371.25bn †	£399.56bn †	£430.10bn †	£457.58bn †	£488.27bn †	£515.79bn †	£547.98bn †

Household income totals: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Household market income	£1,651.49bn	£1,713.03bn	£1,764.05bn	£1,812.97bn	£1,862.19bn	£1,918.39bn	£1,985.28bn
Household net income	£1,644.46bn †	£1,688.65bn †	£1,719.42bn †	£1,750.39bn †	£1,781.36bn †	£1,820.67bn †	£1,866.89bn †
Household net income (HBAI definition)	£1,457.62bn	£1,504.74bn	£1,537.75bn	£1,569.43bn	£1,602.65bn	£1,640.38bn	£1,686.54bn

Population: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
People	69,224k	69,466k	69,668k	69,891k	70,128k	70,381k	70,550k
Benefit units	35,100k	35,223k	35,325k	35,438k	35,558k	35,686k	35,772k
Households	31,037k	31,145k	31,236k	31,336k	31,442k	31,555k	31,631k

Poverty rates: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone	15.9%	15.1%	15.5%	15.6%	15.7%	15.7%	15.8%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children	24.0%	21.1%	21.5%	21.5%	21.7%	21.7%	21.8%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	13.8%	13.5%	14.0%	14.1%	14.2%	14.2%	14.3%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	13.6%	13.2%	13.1%	13.4%	13.5%	13.5%	13.5%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone	21.4%	20.8%	21.2%	21.5%	21.8%	21.9%	22.2%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children	33.0%	30.7%	31.0%	31.1%	31.4%	31.7%	32.3%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	19.8%	19.6%	20.2%	20.5%	20.7%	20.9%	21.1%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	12.7%	12.3%	12.3%	12.5%	12.9%	12.9%	13.0%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone	17.2%	16.4%	16.5%	16.4%	16.3%	16.4%	16.6%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children	26.2%	23.5%	23.4%	23.1%	22.8%	23.0%	23.3%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	14.6%	14.3%	14.7%	14.7%	14.6%	14.7%	14.9%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	15.0%	14.8%	14.1%	14.1%	14.0%	14.0%	14.2%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone	21.6%	21.0%	21.2%	21.2%	21.3%	21.4%	21.8%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children	33.2%	31.2%	30.9%	30.7%	31.0%	31.0%	31.5%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	19.9%	19.8%	20.1%	20.3%	20.4%	20.5%	20.7%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	12.9%	12.4%	12.1%	11.8%	11.8%	11.9%	12.8%

People in poverty: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone	11,039k	10,465k	10,769k	10,890k	10,992k	11,057k	11,136k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children	3,579k	3,171k	3,230k	3,240k	3,280k	3,300k	3,324k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	5,843k	5,744k	6,034k	6,134k	6,183k	6,218k	6,267k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	1,616k	1,550k	1,504k	1,517k	1,530k	1,539k	1,545k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone	14,840k	14,418k	14,804k	15,005k	15,265k	15,430k	15,663k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children	4,937k	4,609k	4,667k	4,687k	4,755k	4,820k	4,919k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	8,401k	8,356k	8,734k	8,907k	9,048k	9,135k	9,257k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	1,503k	1,453k	1,404k	1,412k	1,461k	1,475k	1,487k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone	11,889k	11,389k	11,463k	11,483k	11,421k	11,523k	11,707k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children	3,915k	3,517k	3,517k	3,489k	3,449k	3,489k	3,549k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	6,197k	6,128k	6,335k	6,397k	6,384k	6,437k	6,537k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	1,776k	1,744k	1,611k	1,597k	1,587k	1,596k	1,621k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone	14,943k	14,585k	14,741k	14,808k	14,951k	15,039k	15,362k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children	4,967k	4,674k	4,650k	4,630k	4,691k	4,712k	4,793k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	8,441k	8,448k	8,700k	8,836k	8,916k	8,976k	9,106k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	1,535k	1,463k	1,391k	1,342k	1,344k	1,352k	1,463k

Inequality: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Gini coefficient, equivalised HBAI income before housing costs	0.3084	0.3058	0.3064	0.3071	0.3075	0.3081	0.3096

Mean household net income in each side's own deciles: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household	£17,768 †	£17,862 †	£17,836 †	£17,888 †	£18,172 †	£18,307 †	£18,443 †
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household	£27,982 †	£28,857 †	£28,628 †	£28,890 †	£29,105 †	£29,623 †	£30,135 †
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household	£34,380 †	£35,464 †	£36,042 †	£36,502 †	£36,778 †	£37,311 †	£38,128 †
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household	£39,272 †	£40,694 †	£41,875 †	£42,379 †	£43,101 †	£43,923 †	£44,180 †
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household	£43,318 †	£44,626 †	£45,564 †	£46,292 †	£47,361 †	£48,268 †	£49,578 †
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household	£48,188 †	£49,519 †	£50,747 †	£51,489 †	£52,191 †	£53,186 †	£54,241 †
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household	£56,167 †	£57,131 †	£57,759 †	£58,177 †	£58,914 †	£59,920 †	£61,824 †
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household	£69,198 †	£70,961 †	£71,804 †	£73,232 †	£74,253 †	£75,667 †	£77,424 †
Decile 9: mean household_net_income per household	£79,493 †	£81,039 †	£82,842 †	£84,144 †	£85,534 †	£87,055 †	£89,936 †
Decile 10: mean household_net_income per household	£117,577 †	£120,291 †	£121,928 †	£124,157 †	£126,037 †	£128,333 †	£131,101 †

Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance): head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp	£6.47bn	£6.76bn	£6.67bn	£6.86bn	£7.06bn	£7.35bn	£7.55bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp	£3.69bn	£3.98bn	£4.03bn	£4.29bn	£4.46bn	£4.78bn	£4.91bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year	£-3.82bn	£-3.94bn	£-4.01bn	£-4.09bn	£-4.18bn	£-4.18bn	£-2.00bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child	£-1.99bn	£-1.75bn	£-1.56bn	£-1.46bn	£-1.35bn	£-1.24bn	£-1.12bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%	£-20.39bn	£-20.96bn	£-21.38bn	£-21.57bn	£-21.87bn	£-22.17bn	£-22.60bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%	£11.02bn	£11.42bn	£11.77bn	£12.07bn	£12.37bn	£12.75bn	£13.07bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp	£24.89bn	£25.55bn	£26.14bn	£26.75bn	£27.39bn	£28.03bn	£28.66bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp	£2.96bn	£3.21bn	£3.26bn	£3.46bn	£3.65bn	suppressed	suppressed
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%	£-3.02bn	£-3.15bn	£-3.26bn	£-3.30bn	£-3.34bn	£-3.39bn	£-3.44bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%	£-7.79bn	£-8.02bn	£-8.01bn	£-8.12bn	£-8.43bn	£-8.54bn	£-8.87bn

Standard reforms: change in each reform's target: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp: change in income_tax	£6.61bn	£6.91bn	£6.83bn	£7.03bn	£7.24bn	£7.47bn	£7.73bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp: change in income_tax	£3.69bn	£3.99bn	£4.04bn	£4.25bn	£4.47bn	£4.74bn	£4.93bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year: change in income_tax	£-3.95bn	£-4.08bn	£-4.17bn	£-4.24bn	£-4.34bn	£-4.41bn	£-1.76bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child: change in child_benefit	£2.33bn	£2.14bn	£1.95bn	£1.84bn	£1.73bn	£1.62bn	£1.50bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%: change in universal_credit	£20.39bn	£20.95bn	£21.37bn	£21.62bn	£21.87bn	£22.22bn	£22.61bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%: change in national_insurance	£11.28bn	£11.74bn	£12.06bn	£12.37bn	£12.69bn	£13.03bn	£13.49bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp: change in vat	£24.69bn	£25.35bn	£25.94bn	£26.54bn	£27.17bn	£27.81bn	£28.43bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax	£2.96bn	£3.21bn	£3.26bn	£3.46bn	£3.66bn	suppressed	suppressed
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%: change in universal_credit	£3.02bn	£3.15bn	£3.26bn	£3.32bn	£3.39bn	£3.44bn	£3.48bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%: change in state_pension	£10.68bn	£11.18bn	£11.31bn	£11.55bn	£12.00bn	£12.44bn	£12.94bn

[vahid-ahmadi]

@juaristi22 could you review this when you have a moment? It corrects ridership_index.yaml to ORR Table 1220 (2021 was 0.40, should be 2.55) and projects rail_usage from it, holding growth flat from 2026-27 as a stated assumption. No change to current outputs: the certified data stores rail_subsidy_spending directly, so the fare formula never runs.

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

[juaristi22]

Reviewed b6460a672d254aaed4ab4ed7927c48d9d389c5e6. The ORR Table 1220 original confirms the historical journey values, financial-year mapping and provisional status. The per-person projection avoids double-counting population growth, and its formula path reaches rail subsidy, household benefits and net income.

One nonblocking finding, A1, is attached inline: the new population offset ends in 2030 while population growth continues changing, so total journeys drift below the stated flat forecast from 2031 onward. The synthetic weighted total is about 0.10% below its 2025 level by 2033; extend or derive the offset through the supported horizon and add a post-2030 check.

Validation: 62 repository tests and the additional stored-subsidy control passed. The custom flat-total diagnostic reproduced A1 and failed at its 2032 assertion; its preceding final subsidy/income propagation checks passed. Required hosted checks are green. Review status: COMPLETE; no critical findings or material evidence gaps. The private dataset's reported aggregate totals were not independently reproduced.

[juaristi22]

A1 — Continue the population offset after 2030 (nonblocking). This final -0.0045 value carries forward into 2031+, but ons.population changes to +0.0043, +0.0042 and +0.0041 in 2031–33. Thus 2031 uses 1.0043 × 0.9955 = 0.99978065 instead of keeping weighted journeys approximately flat. In a native two-household projection, the weighted total falls from 232.81831 in 2025 to 232.57506 in 2033 (−0.10448%); ordinary rounding accounts for only −0.00837% through 2030. This also changes subsidy and household income when rail_usage supplies the formula. Please derive or extend the population offset across the supported projection horizon and test flat totals past 2030; the new test currently stops at 2027. The observed effect is small, so this is nonblocking.

[vahid-ahmadi]

Agreed, thanks. Fixed in 5f74f93: the offset now runs to 2073, every year ons.population has a value, so the 2030 value no longer carries forward.

While doing it I found a bigger problem of ours: main's ons.population changed to the March 2026 vintage (#2611) after this branch was cut, so every value here, 2021 to 2030 too, was derived from the old series. I merged main (d5b2b07) and re-derived all years from the new one. 2025-26 per person is now (4.7165 / 4.4567) / 1.0030 - 1 = +5.51%, not +5.07%.

Tests: the per-person check now runs over every population year (2021 to 2073), and the two-household projection asserts a flat weighted total in each year 2026 to 2032 (PROJECTION_END_YEAR). Both failed before the fix. The total now drifts by 4-decimal rounding only: -0.0066% by 2032, and -0.0081% by 2039 on the index twins Core uses after 2032.

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

[juaristi22]

Re-reviewed and approved 5f74f93af2188b03c8befdd265ae699d74ec260d. A1 is resolved.

The rail population offset now covers all 53 dated population years through 2073 and matches the updated population series within the stated rounding. The regression checks every dated value and extends the weighted projection through the supported data horizon. The original ORR evidence remains unchanged and checksum-valid.

107 focused checks passed (105 repository tests and two native controls). The exact diagnostic that previously failed now passes without any tolerance change, including the post-2030 weighted totals, final rail-subsidy/income path and stored-subsidy control. No new findings or material evidence gaps in this incremental review.

Hosted lint and YAML checks have passed. The five Python shards and aggregate-impact check are still running; the approval records the completed code/source review and local validation.

[vahid-ahmadi]

@juaristi22 thanks for the review. Where each point stands:

• A1 (offset ends in 2030): fixed in 5f74f93. orr.per_capita.rail_passenger_journeys now runs to 2073, every year ons.population covers, and the test asserts a flat weighted total in each year 2026 to 2032. Details in the thread.
• Our own mistake, found while fixing A1: main moved ons.population to the March 2026 vintage (Take population growth from the OBR's March 2026 long-term determinants, and re-derive the per-capita series from it #2611) after this branch was cut, so all the per-person values were derived from the old series. I merged main (d5b2b07, a normal merge, no force push) and re-derived every year. 2025-26 per person is +5.51% (it was +5.07%), and the PR body now says so. The per-person test covers every population year, so it will fail if either series moves again.
• ORR figures: I downloaded Table 1220 again today. It is unchanged: published 18 June 2026, ends March 2026, next release 17 June 2027. The six journey figures match the parameter.

Tests run locally: test_rail_usage_uprating.py, test_projection_horizon.py, test_uprating_inputs_reach_data.py, test_population_vintage.py, the other projection tests that read these series, tests/code_health and the gov/dft YAML tests. All pass. CI is green at 5f74f93, and aggregate impact passes with nothing broken and no moves flagged, as expected, because the certified data stores rail_subsidy_spending.

Could you re-review when you have a moment?

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