Skip to content

Extend the zero rate of VAT on domestic electricity to 30 June 2027 (Budget 2026) - #2718

Closed
MaxGhenis wants to merge 1 commit into
mainfrom
ab26-electricity-vat
Closed

Extend the zero rate of VAT on domestic electricity to 30 June 2027 (Budget 2026)#2718
MaxGhenis wants to merge 1 commit into
mainfrom
ab26-electricity-vat

Conversation

@MaxGhenis

@MaxGhenis MaxGhenis commented Oct 28, 2026

Copy link
Copy Markdown
Collaborator

Draft: Budget week. Not for merge until the Budget-week merge rules lift.

Part of moving the Autumn Budget 2026 household measures from the dashboard repo's reforms (PolicyEngine/uk-autumn-budget-dashboard-2026#290) into current law here. This one is Table 6.1 item 2.

What and why

Budget 2026 extends the temporary zero rate of VAT on domestic electricity by three months:

  • Budget 2026, paragraph 6.210: the 0% rate "will be extended for a further three months, to 1 July 2027. This is expected to apply UK-wide from April 2027."
  • Budget 2026, section 4.3: "Extended VAT relief is expected to apply in Northern Ireland from April 2027."
  • Policy costings, page 12: effective "from 1 October 2026 until 1 July 2027".
  • Table 6.1 item 2: −£755m in 2026-27 and −£305m in 2027-28.

Changes:

  • gov.hmrc.vat.domestic_electricity_rate.great_britain: 5% returns on 1 July 2027, not 1 April 2027 (SI 2026/987's end date).
  • gov.hmrc.vat.domestic_electricity_rate.northern_ireland: 0% from 1 April to 30 June 2027. The Budget says "expected"; the parameter comment and references say so.

Both are Budget policy, not yet law. Liability follows the consumption date (Revenue and Customs Brief 10 (2026)), and the fiscal_year_blend day-weighting already in place assumes equal daily use:

Model year Great Britain at 5% Northern Ireland at 5%
2026-27 (365 days) 178 days (was 183) 360 days (was 365)
2027-28 (366 days) 280 days (was 366) 280 days (was 366)

Tests

  • test_domestic_electricity_vat.py:
    • scheduled rates by nation on each changeover date;
    • day-weighted model-year rates for 2025 to 2028;
    • every nation's 2027-28 VAT on £1,050 of bills is 50 × 280 / 366 = £38.25;
    • Northern Ireland's 2026-27 VAT is 50 × 360 / 365 = £49.32;
    • the two dated-reform tests now take a baseline that already zero-rates 86 days of 2027-28, and compare float32 changes to the penny, as the neighbouring tests do.
  • test_private_school_vat_receipts.py: its expected electricity rate by nation and year follows the new schedule.
  • domestic_energy_vat.yaml: 2026-27 and 2027-28 cases for Great Britain and Northern Ireland, plus 2028-29 back at 5%.
  • Run locally:
    • test_domestic_electricity_vat.py (31) and test_private_school_vat_receipts.py: all pass;
    • every YAML file that mentions electricity consumption or energy VAT: 25 passed.

Invariants

  • The model-year rate is the day-weighted average of the dated schedule. Tests check it against the hand-counted day shares.
  • Gas VAT is unaffected; gas stays on the reduced rate.
  • With no reform, vat_change is zero and the baseline and reformed energy VAT agree. The existing test still covers this, and now runs on the new schedule.

Impact

Not run yet. To follow on this PR.

Plan

  • Parameters, tests
  • CI green
  • Independent review
  • rulespec-uk parity issue

Reproducer: policyengine_uk/tests/test_domestic_electricity_vat.py::test_rates_change_on_each_scheduled_date; policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/gov/hmrc/vat/domestic_energy_vat.yaml

axiom: queued (rulespec-uk issue to follow; the extension is not yet legislated)

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

@MaxGhenis @claude
Extend the zero rate of VAT on domestic electricity to 30 June 2027 (…
5d0f64a 
…Budget 2026)

Budget 2026 (paragraph 6.210; policy costings page 12) extends the
temporary 0% rate from 31 March 2027 to 1 July 2027, and expects it to
apply UK-wide from April 2027 (section 4.3: "Extended VAT relief is
expected to apply in Northern Ireland from April 2027").

- great_britain.yaml: 5% returns on 1 July 2027, not 1 April.
- northern_ireland.yaml: 0% from 1 April to 30 June 2027.
- Tests follow the new day weights: FY 2026-27 GB 178/365 at 5%, NI
  360/365; FY 2027-28 280/366 at 5% in every nation.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis MaxGhenis mentioned this pull request Oct 28, 2026
Open
40 tasks done
@MaxGhenis

MaxGhenis commented Oct 28, 2026

Copy link
Copy Markdown
Collaborator Author

Consolidated into #2719 so the Budget 2026 measures go through the merge queue once. This commit is cherry-picked there unchanged.

@MaxGhenis MaxGhenis closed this Oct 28, 2026
@MaxGhenis
MaxGhenis deleted the ab26-electricity-vat branch October 28, 2026 15:19
@github-actions

github-actions Bot commented Oct 28, 2026

Copy link
Copy Markdown
Contributor

Aggregate impact on certified data: pass

Base 63609883cd against head f437bf7997, both on enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5 (policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1, sha256 056e80fd8e91), fiscal years 2025-26 to 2031-32. Each year is a full microsimulation run on each side.

Checks: 0 broken by this change, 1 failing on both sides, 0 fixed. Moves flagged for review: 1 (thresholds in report_spec.yaml; a flag does not fail the job).

Workflow run and full report

Notes

  • In the years a figure from fewer than 10 records is suppressed (spending.disabled_students_allowance), every total containing it, and the decile incomes, are rebuilt from their other components, so no published total includes it. Those totals are marked †. A change is withheld where the two sides leave out different figures and can't be lined up.

Moves flagged for review

Measure Year Base Head Change
VAT excluding private school fees 2027-28 £261.81bn £261.48bn -£327.8m

Receipts by tax head

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
VAT excluding private school fees 0 -£19.1m -£327.8m 0 0 0 0

Spending by benefit and service

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed

Caseloads

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed

Government balance, each component counted once

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Government receipts, each component once 0 -£19.1m -£327.8m 0 0 0 0
Government balance, each receipt once 0 † -£19.1m † -£327.8m † 0 † 0 † 0 † 0 †

Model totals

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
gov_tax 0 -£19.1m -£327.8m 0 0 0 0
gov_balance 0 † -£19.1m † -£327.8m † 0 † 0 † 0 † 0 †

Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance)

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp 0 -£878 +£1,807 0 0 0 0
Raise higher rate by 1pp 0 +£98 +£95 0 0 0 0
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year 0 +£190 -£1,824 0 0 0 0
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child 0 -£297 -£224 0 0 0 0
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20% 0 +£90 +£231 0 0 0 0
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10% 0 -£1,439 -£1,054 0 0 0 0
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp 0 -£64 +£3,870 0 0 0 0
Raise additional rate by 3pp 0 -£913 -£229 0 0 suppressed suppressed
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10% 0 -£105 +£116 0 0 0 0
Raise the State Pension by 10% 0 -£767 +£1,158 0 0 0 0

Standard reforms: change in each reform's target

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp: change in vat 0 -£137 +£792 0 0 0 0
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax 0 0 0 0 0 suppressed suppressed

Household net income by decile

No household's net income changes in any year.

No change in any year: household income totals; population; poverty rates; people in poverty; inequality; mean household net income in each side's own deciles.

Checks failing on both base and head (1)
  • VAT excluding private school fees is never negative (sign:vat): 2025-26: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-53,889,156 in total; 2026-27: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-55,422,765 in total; 2027-28: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-56,658,977 in total
Counted-once check

Each of 91 components was raised by £1 per unit in 2026-27, and every head of its totals was read household by household: its own head must rise by exactly £1, no other tax head may move, no other benefit may rise, and the model's own total must move by what its heads moved. A head that breaks a rule is measured again twice: with every other head held at its baseline value, and with every other head held at its value after the first £1 while the component rises again. It fails where either still shows the response. 0 failed; 0 were skipped.

  • widowed_parents_allowance: pension_credit responds only through other heads in fewer than 10 households (other heads that moved there: carers_allowance; gov_spending; not a failure)
  • widowed_parents_allowance: pension_credit responds only through other heads in fewer than 10 households (other heads that moved there: carers_allowance; household_benefits; not a failure)
Provenance
Side Commit Runtime Environment hash Partition hash Time
base main 63609883cd uk 2.162.21 (files 097bc87ac2a7), core 3.33.12, py 3.13.18 aarch64 7807fde1129c 1eac2ca06b91 1813.15s
head #2718 merged into main f437bf7997 uk 2.162.21 (files c0b17f00a8c7), core 3.33.12, py 3.13.18 aarch64 7807fde1129c 1eac2ca06b91 1874.52s

Dataset: hf://policyengine/policyengine-uk-data-private/enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5@2526edbbb687a3b54dbb11272e5389e4b62d2ac2, sha256 056e80fd8e9151d78f432a25cde863340baee81304c6216a37fb575ce8563784 (verified on both sides), policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1.

Receipts by tax head: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Final charge on cash interest in non-cash ISAs £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Lifetime ISA withdrawal charge £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Income tax £298.70bn £318.31bn £335.60bn £350.52bn £365.79bn £383.53bn £401.03bn
National Insurance (employee and self-employed) £52.37bn £54.71bn £56.48bn £58.15bn £60.22bn £62.11bn £64.44bn
National Insurance (employer) £150.59bn £156.99bn £161.74bn £166.13bn £173.24bn £178.59bn £185.29bn
Employer NI change borne by capital £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Employer NI change borne by consumers £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Capital gains tax £12.61bn £13.05bn £13.53bn £14.02bn £14.52bn £15.05bn £15.58bn
Student loan repayments £7.91bn £8.21bn £8.43bn £8.63bn £8.85bn £9.10bn £9.42bn
VAT excluding private school fees £249.37bn £255.26bn £261.48bn £267.87bn £274.12bn £280.56bn £286.81bn
Change in VAT from its baseline £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
VAT on private school fees £1.95bn £2.00bn £2.05bn £2.10bn £2.21bn £2.21bn £2.31bn
Change in private school VAT from its baseline £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Fuel duties £24.53bn £24.64bn £26.64bn £26.69bn £26.42bn £25.76bn £26.35bn
Alcohol duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Tobacco duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Vehicle excise duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Betting and gaming duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
TV licence fee £4.26bn £4.41bn £4.42bn £4.44bn £4.45bn £4.47bn £4.48bn
Council tax £49.21bn £51.88bn £54.97bn £58.29bn £61.55bn £64.92bn £68.49bn
High value council tax surcharge £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.48bn £0.49bn £0.50bn £0.51bn
Northern Ireland domestic rates £0.55bn £0.58bn £0.60bn £0.63bn £0.66bn £0.69bn £0.72bn
Business rates £34.68bn £38.04bn £38.88bn £39.76bn £43.07bn £43.13bn £44.57bn
Stamp duty land tax on the household's own purchases £6.90bn £7.39bn £7.81bn £8.21bn £8.62bn £9.02bn £9.42bn
Stamp duty land tax paid by companies £4.81bn £5.98bn £6.73bn £7.46bn £8.21bn £8.87bn £9.16bn
Land transaction tax (Wales) £0.07bn £0.08bn £0.09bn £0.09bn £0.10bn £0.10bn £0.11bn
Land and buildings transaction tax (Scotland) £0.31bn £0.32bn £0.34bn £0.35bn £0.37bn £0.38bn £0.40bn
Unspecified tax change borne by capital £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Unspecified tax change borne by consumers £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Wealth tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Wealth tax excluding the main residence £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Land value tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Carbon tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Spending by benefit and service: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Lifetime ISA bonus £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
State Pension £121.64bn £126.07bn £127.08bn £128.87bn £132.52bn £136.31bn £140.08bn
Pension Credit £6.66bn £7.04bn £7.32bn £7.46bn £7.60bn £7.77bn £7.94bn
Winter Fuel Payment £1.86bn £1.86bn £1.80bn £1.78bn £1.79bn £1.79bn £1.80bn
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland) £0.19bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.21bn £0.21bn £0.22bn £0.22bn
Universal Credit £75.21bn £80.38bn £82.93bn £84.23bn £85.58bn £86.87bn £87.97bn
Housing Benefit £8.55bn £8.89bn £9.17bn £9.31bn £9.58bn £9.84bn £10.10bn
Council Tax Reduction £2.07bn £2.18bn £2.32bn £2.46bn £2.60bn £2.74bn £2.89bn
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related) £0.79bn £0.81bn £0.83bn £0.85bn £0.86bn £0.89bn £0.90bn
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based) £5.20bn £5.34bn £5.46bn £5.59bn £5.72bn £5.85bn £5.99bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based) £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based) £0.29bn £0.30bn £0.30bn £0.31bn £0.32bn £0.32bn £0.33bn
Income Support £0.11bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Working Tax Credit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Child Tax Credit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Incapacity Benefit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Personal Independence Payment £26.94bn £28.06bn £29.13bn £29.83bn £30.54bn £31.26bn £31.96bn
Disability Living Allowance £7.49bn £7.80bn £8.10bn £8.29bn £8.49bn £8.69bn £8.88bn
Attendance Allowance £8.68bn £9.04bn £9.38bn £9.61bn £9.83bn £10.07bn £10.29bn
Carer's Allowance £4.48bn £4.67bn £4.84bn £4.96bn £5.08bn £5.19bn £5.31bn
Carer Support Payment (Scotland) £0.31bn £0.32bn £0.33bn £0.34bn £0.35bn £0.36bn £0.37bn
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland) £0.00bn £0.04bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn
Severe Disablement Allowance £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit £0.50bn £0.52bn £0.53bn £0.54bn £0.55bn £0.57bn £0.58bn
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme £0.61bn £0.62bn £0.64bn £0.65bn £0.67bn £0.68bn £0.70bn
War Widow's or Widower's Pension £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Child Benefit £16.16bn £16.83bn £17.43bn £17.85bn £18.26bn £18.69bn £19.10bn
Scottish Child Payment £0.49bn £0.52bn £0.54bn £0.55bn £0.56bn £0.57bn £0.56bn
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual) £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Healthy Start vouchers £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn
Maternity Allowance £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Statutory Maternity Pay £3.30bn £3.39bn £3.47bn £3.55bn £3.63bn £3.72bn £3.80bn
Statutory Paternity Pay £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Statutory Sick Pay £1.12bn £1.15bn £1.18bn £1.21bn £1.24bn £1.27bn £1.29bn
Sure Start Maternity Grant £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn
Bereavement Support Payment £0.67bn £0.69bn £0.70bn £0.72bn £0.73bn £0.75bn £0.77bn
Widowed Parent's Allowance £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Tax-Free Childcare £0.55bn £0.56bn £0.57bn £0.58bn £0.59bn £0.61bn £0.59bn
Extended childcare entitlement £2.99bn £3.50bn £3.60bn £3.67bn £3.77bn £3.85bn £3.94bn
Universal childcare entitlement £2.05bn £2.23bn £2.28bn £2.34bn £2.40bn £2.47bn £2.52bn
Targeted childcare entitlement £0.50bn £0.51bn £0.52bn £0.53bn £0.54bn £0.56bn £0.52bn
Childcare Offer for Wales £0.26bn £0.28bn £0.28bn £0.29bn £0.30bn £0.30bn £0.31bn
Care to Learn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Childcare Grant £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Parents' Learning Allowance £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn
Adult Dependants' Grant £0.06bn £0.06bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn
Travel Grant £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
NHS spending £203.83bn £204.54bn £205.13bn £205.79bn £206.49bn £207.23bn £207.73bn
State education spending £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn
Transport subsidy spending £25.05bn £25.13bn £25.21bn £25.29bn £25.37bn £25.46bn £25.53bn
Cost-of-living support payment £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Energy Bills Rebate £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Basic income £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Disability basic income £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Other public spending budget change £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Caseloads: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Lifetime ISA bonus 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
State Pension 11,261k 11,158k 10,849k 10,746k 10,783k 10,822k 10,848k
Pension Credit 1,485k 1,483k 1,480k 1,461k 1,462k 1,464k 1,460k
Winter Fuel Payment 7,842k 7,793k 7,494k 7,407k 7,432k 7,459k 7,477k
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland) 803k 803k 803k 800k 803k 806k 808k
Universal Credit 6,334k 6,341k 6,366k 6,347k 6,345k 6,333k 6,298k
Housing Benefit 1,249k 1,247k 1,250k 1,234k 1,238k 1,240k 1,239k
Council Tax Reduction 3,175k 3,198k 3,209k 3,229k 3,244k 3,257k 3,264k
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related) 71k 71k 71k 71k 71k 72k 72k
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based) 719k 721k 723k 726k 728k 731k 732k
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based) 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based) 67k 67k 67k 68k 68k 68k 68k
Income Support 25k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Working Tax Credit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Child Tax Credit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Incapacity Benefit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Personal Independence Payment 3,566k 3,579k 3,589k 3,601k 3,613k 3,626k 3,635k
Disability Living Allowance 1,291k 1,295k 1,299k 1,303k 1,308k 1,312k 1,316k
Attendance Allowance 1,694k 1,700k 1,705k 1,711k 1,716k 1,723k 1,727k
Carer's Allowance 1,034k 1,038k 1,041k 1,044k 1,048k 1,051k 1,053k
Carer Support Payment (Scotland) 71k 71k 72k 72k 72k 72k 73k
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland) 0k 71k 72k 72k 72k 72k 73k
Severe Disablement Allowance 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit 137k 137k 138k 138k 139k 139k 140k
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme 93k 93k 94k 94k 94k 95k 95k
War Widow's or Widower's Pension 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Child Benefit 8,102k 8,128k 8,142k 8,165k 8,191k 8,216k 8,232k
Scottish Child Payment 350k 352k 353k 357k 354k 355k 342k
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual) 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Healthy Start vouchers 199k 200k 201k 201k 202k 203k 203k
Maternity Allowance 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Statutory Maternity Pay 332k 334k 335k 336k 337k 338k 339k
Statutory Paternity Pay 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Statutory Sick Pay 181k 182k 182k 183k 183k 184k 185k
Sure Start Maternity Grant 26k 26k 26k 26k 26k 27k 27k
Bereavement Support Payment 98k 98k 98k 99k 99k 99k 100k
Widowed Parent's Allowance 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Tax-Free Childcare 1,014k 1,024k 1,024k 1,027k 1,027k 1,031k 1,013k
Extended childcare entitlement 796k 801k 806k 809k 815k 819k 820k
Universal childcare entitlement 1,071k 1,074k 1,077k 1,080k 1,086k 1,096k 1,097k
Targeted childcare entitlement 165k 156k 154k 155k 155k 156k 144k
Childcare Offer for Wales 39k 39k 39k 39k 39k 39k 39k
Care to Learn 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Childcare Grant 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Parents' Learning Allowance 98k 98k 99k 99k 99k 100k 100k
Adult Dependants' Grant 18k 18k 12k 12k 12k 13k 13k
Travel Grant 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Cost-of-living support payment 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Energy Bills Rebate 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Basic income 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Disability basic income 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Government balance, each component counted once: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Government receipts, each component once £898.82bn £941.84bn £979.78bn £1,013.84bn £1,052.89bn £1,089.01bn £1,129.10bn
Government spending £528.95bn † £543.83bn † £551.68bn † £558.06bn † £566.57bn † £575.31bn † £583.38bn †
Government balance, each receipt once £369.87bn † £398.01bn † £428.10bn † £455.77bn † £486.32bn † £513.70bn † £545.72bn †
Benefits in household_benefits but not in gov_spending £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Model totals: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
gov_tax £898.82bn £941.84bn £979.78bn £1,013.84bn £1,052.89bn £1,089.01bn £1,129.10bn
household_tax £496.91bn £527.60bn £554.51bn £577.74bn £603.32bn £627.65bn £654.69bn
pre_budget_change_household_tax £489.00bn £519.39bn £546.08bn £568.63bn £593.98bn £618.05bn £644.75bn
gov_spending £528.95bn † £543.83bn † £551.68bn † £558.06bn † £566.57bn † £575.31bn † £583.38bn †
household_benefits £528.95bn † £543.83bn † £551.68bn † £558.06bn † £566.57bn † £575.31bn † £583.38bn †
gov_balance £369.87bn † £398.01bn † £428.10bn † £455.77bn † £486.32bn † £513.70bn † £545.72bn †
Household income totals: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Household market income £1,651.49bn £1,713.03bn £1,764.05bn £1,812.97bn £1,862.19bn £1,918.39bn £1,985.28bn
Household net income £1,644.42bn † £1,688.69bn † £1,719.55bn † £1,750.62bn † £1,781.68bn † £1,821.07bn † £1,867.39bn †
Household net income (HBAI definition) £1,457.29bn £1,504.48bn £1,537.58bn £1,569.36bn £1,602.67bn £1,640.49bn £1,687.04bn
Population: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
People 69,224k 69,466k 69,668k 69,891k 70,128k 70,381k 70,550k
Benefit units 35,100k 35,223k 35,325k 35,438k 35,558k 35,686k 35,772k
Households 31,037k 31,145k 31,236k 31,336k 31,442k 31,555k 31,631k
Poverty rates: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone 16.0% 15.1% 15.4% 15.5% 15.6% 15.7% 15.7%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children 24.0% 21.1% 21.3% 21.3% 21.5% 21.8% 21.8%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 13.8% 13.5% 13.9% 14.1% 14.1% 14.2% 14.2%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 13.7% 13.2% 13.1% 13.4% 13.5% 13.5% 13.5%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone 21.4% 20.8% 21.3% 21.5% 21.7% 21.9% 22.2%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children 33.0% 30.7% 31.1% 31.1% 31.4% 31.7% 32.3%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 19.8% 19.6% 20.2% 20.5% 20.7% 20.8% 21.1%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 12.7% 12.4% 12.3% 12.5% 12.8% 12.9% 13.0%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone 17.2% 16.4% 16.5% 16.4% 16.2% 16.3% 16.5%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children 26.2% 23.5% 23.4% 23.1% 22.6% 22.8% 23.1%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 14.6% 14.4% 14.7% 14.7% 14.6% 14.7% 14.8%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 15.0% 14.8% 14.1% 14.1% 14.0% 14.0% 14.2%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone 21.6% 21.0% 21.1% 21.2% 21.3% 21.4% 21.8%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children 33.3% 31.2% 30.8% 30.7% 31.0% 31.0% 31.5%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 19.9% 19.8% 20.1% 20.3% 20.4% 20.5% 20.7%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 12.9% 12.5% 12.1% 11.9% 11.8% 11.9% 12.8%
People in poverty: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone 11,057k 10,466k 10,734k 10,860k 10,960k 11,054k 11,081k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children 3,580k 3,171k 3,210k 3,220k 3,261k 3,305k 3,317k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 5,853k 5,746k 6,021k 6,123k 6,169k 6,209k 6,219k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 1,625k 1,550k 1,504k 1,517k 1,530k 1,539k 1,545k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone 14,847k 14,422k 14,808k 14,994k 15,242k 15,402k 15,638k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children 4,937k 4,609k 4,671k 4,685k 4,757k 4,814k 4,912k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 8,406k 8,359k 8,732k 8,898k 9,024k 9,114k 9,240k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 1,504k 1,454k 1,404k 1,411k 1,460k 1,475k 1,486k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone 11,896k 11,403k 11,468k 11,487k 11,373k 11,468k 11,652k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children 3,918k 3,523k 3,519k 3,491k 3,419k 3,458k 3,516k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 6,202k 6,136k 6,338k 6,400k 6,366k 6,415k 6,515k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 1,776k 1,744k 1,611k 1,597k 1,588k 1,595k 1,621k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone 14,957k 14,597k 14,698k 14,825k 14,951k 15,042k 15,351k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children 4,976k 4,677k 4,630k 4,634k 4,690k 4,712k 4,794k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 8,443k 8,455k 8,680k 8,847k 8,916k 8,977k 9,092k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 1,537k 1,465k 1,388k 1,344k 1,346k 1,354k 1,464k
Inequality: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Gini coefficient, equivalised HBAI income before housing costs 0.3085 0.3059 0.3065 0.3071 0.3075 0.3081 0.3094
Mean household net income in each side's own deciles: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household £17,781 † £17,906 † £17,832 † £17,905 † £18,142 † £18,339 † £18,483 †
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household £27,962 † £28,917 † £28,654 † £28,906 † £29,096 † £29,646 † £30,235 †
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household £34,380 † £35,463 † £36,065 † £36,509 † £36,850 † £37,338 † £38,043 †
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household £38,785 † £40,713 † £41,873 † £42,413 † £43,145 † £43,906 † £44,167 †
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household £43,788 † £44,626 † £45,606 † £46,289 † £47,328 † £48,286 † £49,711 †
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household £48,210 † £49,525 † £50,736 † £51,914 † £52,203 † £53,174 † £54,203 †
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household £56,218 † £57,224 † £57,764 † £58,010 † £59,040 † £60,061 † £61,765 †
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household £69,150 † £70,533 † £71,800 † £73,075 † £74,092 † £75,540 † £77,427 †
Decile 9: mean household_net_income per household £79,490 † £81,421 † £82,828 † £84,135 † £85,539 † £87,053 † £89,944 †
Decile 10: mean household_net_income per household £117,581 † £120,296 † £121,933 † £124,163 † £126,045 † £128,342 † £131,110 †
Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance): head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp £6.47bn £6.76bn £6.67bn £6.86bn £7.06bn £7.35bn £7.55bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp £3.69bn £3.98bn £4.03bn £4.29bn £4.46bn £4.78bn £4.91bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year £-3.82bn £-3.94bn £-4.01bn £-4.09bn £-4.18bn £-4.18bn £-2.00bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child £-1.99bn £-1.75bn £-1.56bn £-1.46bn £-1.35bn £-1.23bn £-1.12bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20% £-20.39bn £-20.96bn £-21.38bn £-21.61bn £-21.87bn £-22.17bn £-22.60bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10% £11.02bn £11.42bn £11.77bn £12.07bn £12.37bn £12.75bn £13.07bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp £24.89bn £25.55bn £26.14bn £26.75bn £27.39bn £28.03bn £28.66bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp £2.96bn £3.21bn £3.26bn £3.46bn £3.65bn suppressed suppressed
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10% £-3.05bn £-3.18bn £-3.30bn £-3.34bn £-3.38bn £-3.42bn £-3.48bn
Raise the State Pension by 10% £-7.79bn £-8.02bn £-8.01bn £-8.12bn £-8.43bn £-8.54bn £-8.87bn
Standard reforms: change in each reform's target: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp: change in income_tax £6.61bn £6.91bn £6.83bn £7.03bn £7.24bn £7.47bn £7.73bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp: change in income_tax £3.69bn £3.99bn £4.04bn £4.25bn £4.47bn £4.74bn £4.93bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year: change in income_tax £-3.95bn £-4.08bn £-4.17bn £-4.24bn £-4.34bn £-4.41bn £-1.76bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child: change in child_benefit £2.33bn £2.14bn £1.95bn £1.84bn £1.73bn £1.62bn £1.50bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%: change in universal_credit £20.39bn £20.95bn £21.37bn £21.62bn £21.87bn £22.22bn £22.61bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%: change in national_insurance £11.28bn £11.74bn £12.06bn £12.37bn £12.69bn £13.03bn £13.49bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp: change in vat £24.69bn £25.35bn £25.94bn £26.54bn £27.17bn £27.81bn £28.43bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax £2.96bn £3.21bn £3.26bn £3.46bn £3.66bn suppressed suppressed
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%: change in universal_credit £3.05bn £3.18bn £3.29bn £3.36bn £3.43bn £3.48bn £3.52bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%: change in state_pension £10.68bn £11.18bn £11.31bn £11.55bn £12.00bn £12.44bn £12.94bn

Sign up for free to join this conversation on GitHub. Already have an account? Sign in to comment

Reviewers

No reviews

Assignees

No one assigned

Labels

None yet

Projects

None yet

Milestone

No milestone

Development

Successfully merging this pull request may close these issues.

1 participant

@MaxGhenis