[MaxGhenis]

Draft: Budget week. Not for merge until the Budget-week merge rules lift.

This moves the Autumn Budget 2026 household measures from the dashboard repo's reforms (PolicyEngine/uk-autumn-budget-dashboard-2026#290) into current law. It is one PR so the merge queue runs once. It replaces #2713, #2714, #2715 and #2718, which are closed.

Sources:

• Budget 2026;
• policy costings;
• Table 6.1;
• the Pension Tax Allowance explainer.

None of the measures is law yet; each parameter says so.

Measure	Table 6.1	Commit	Status
Trading allowance £3,000 from 6 April 2027	15	2d31a50	done
Savings and property rates +2pp from 6 April 2027	61, 62	e95275e	done
Fuel duty: 5p cut to 1 July 2027 (60.59p), then RPI; LPG and natural gas too	3	8ee81b3, 064826e, 9521429	done
Electricity VAT 0% to 30 June 2027, NI from April 2027	2	66d0281	done
Household Energy Payment, £100, bands A–D, England	1	d4f803b, d43e015	done
Pension Tax Allowance	52	d6b3611, 7de3747, d436a27	done
Carer's Allowance 100% taper above the limit, within 2030-31	7	b5d2d77, 948d15d, 5bd68fd, 835a765, b1c4f95, d436a27, bffa9e8	done
Older tests moved to the Budget rates	n/a	e5e8942	done
Review round 1 fixes	n/a	805bf0e, 1386278 (and the commits above)	done
Review round 2 fixes	n/a	835a765	done
Review round 3 fixes	n/a	b1c4f95	done
Review round 4 fixes	n/a	d436a27	done
Main merged in; main's 2028 Pension Credit boundary test pinned with and without the allowance	n/a	16497d7, f51c6dc	done
Review round 5 fix	n/a	bffa9e8	done
OBR October 2026 EFO economic assumptions	n/a	#2717 (María)	separate PR

Trading allowance (item 15)

Paragraph 6.254 and costings p. 23 set the allowance at £3,000 from 6 April 2027. The parameter gets a new 2027-04-06: 3_000 value. trading_allowance_deduction already reads it, so Income Tax and Class 4 NI follow.

Known gap: the allowance also covers miscellaneous income (ITTOIA s. 783B), but the model applies it only to trading income. #290's review (issuecomment-6472453512) bounds the missing cost at about £71m in 2027-28.

Tests:

• the £1,000 cases move to 2026;
• new 2027-28 cases: full relief, the £3,001 cliff when receipts are unknown, partial relief and expenses above £3,000;
• the property tests now use £3,000.

Savings and property income rates (items 61, 62)

Paragraphs 6.246 and 6.247 set 24%, 44% and 49% from 6 April 2027. The property rates apply in England, Wales and Northern Ireland; the savings rates UK-wide. The existing formulas already do the rest:

• Scottish taxpayers' property income stays on the Scottish rates (property_income_tax.formula_2027).
• Finance cost relief reads rates.property.basic, so it becomes 24%, in line with costings p. 74.
• The ISA cash-interest charge reads the savings basic rate (SI 2026/1018 reg. 22A(3)).

One consequence: under the model's reading of ITTOIA s. 274AA(5), Scottish landlords' relief also rises to 24%, while their property tax doesn't change.

Tests:

• hard-coded 22/42/47% expectations, recomputed by hand at 24/44/49%;
• new tests/policy/reforms/oct_2026_budget/savings_property_income_rates.yaml;
• property tests in test_budget_2026_savings_property_rates_properties.py. Mutation check: with the higher property rate at 43%, invariant 1 fails.

The higher relief can also change the property allowance election. A Scottish landlord with £500 of rent and £435 of finance costs uses the £1,000 allowance at 22%, since the relief (£95.70) is worth less than the £100 of tax the allowance saves. At 24% the relief is £104.40, so the model drops the allowance: property income tax rises from £0 to £100 and income tax falls by £4.40. The model makes that choice only where it lowers the person's income tax (uses_property_allowance). The rate identities hold for people whose election doesn't change, and a worked test covers this case.

Fuel duty (item 3)

Paragraph 6.211 extends the 5p cut to 1 July 2027. Costings p. 13: "On 1 July 2027, fuel duty rates will increase by 5ppl and will be uprated in line with the Retail Prices Index (RPI). From 1 April 2028, fuel duty rates will be uprated annually in line with RPI." Other fuels get "a proportionate percentage cut (equivalent to 5ppl from the main fuel duty rate of 57.95 ppl)".

Changes:

• petrol and diesel stay at 52.95p to 30 June 2027; SI 2026/164's January and March 2027 steps are gone;
• on 1 July 2027, calculate_fuel_duty_rates.py uprates each full rate by RPI growth in the year to 2027 Q1 (4.5565%, economy Table 1.7). For petrol and diesel that is the OBR's 60.59p (October 2026 EFO ¶3.19: "from 52.95 pence per litre to 60.59 pence per litre"); the script refuses to write a different figure;
• LPG and natural gas get the same uprating: 33.05p and 25.83p a kilogram from 1 July 2027;
• all three then rise by the previous calendar year's RPI each 1 April from 2028, with RPI uprating metadata after 2031.

This branch's RPI series is still the March 2026 EFO, so the April steps are 62.41p, 64.16p, 66.02p and 67.54p. #2717's October RPI moves them.

Day-weighted model-year rates (p/litre):

Model year	Before	After
2026-27	53.95	52.95
2027-28	59.77	58.82

Electricity VAT (item 2)

Paragraph 6.210 extends the zero rate "to 1 July 2027. This is expected to apply UK-wide from April 2027". The parameter changes:

• Great Britain stays at 0% to 30 June 2027;
• Northern Ireland is at 0% from 1 April to 30 June 2027.

Day-weighted model years:

• 2026-27: Great Britain 178 of 365 days at 5%, Northern Ireland 360 of 365;
• 2027-28: 280 of 366 days at 5% in every nation.

The dashboard (#290, 5d18a5e2) weights 2027-28 differently. It uses April to June's share of a year's domestic electricity use (22.30%), where this PR uses the day share (86 of 366, 23.50%). For the dashboard's £1,040 electricity bill, the 2027-28 saving is £11.04 there and £11.64 here.

This PR doesn't change how electricity spending is projected. uprate_energy moves it by headline CPI from the dataset's declared price basis (calendar 2024 for the managed Microcosm bundle) and holds it flat where a dataset declares none (Enhanced FRS, priced at April 2026 Ofgem rates). The Treasury costing (p. 12) grows "nominal consumer expenditure on electricity" instead, price and volume together. The OBR's Table 1.20 electricity series is a wholesale price in £/MWh, not a bill. Its nearest retail series, Table 1.19 "Utilities", covers more than electricity and is post-measures, so it already contains this VAT cut. On it, spending would be about 1.1% lower in 2026-27 and 1.4% lower in 2027-28 than on CPI: roughly £8m and £4m off the costing's £755m and £305m. A pre-measures retail electricity index would be a separate change.

Household Energy Payment (item 1)

Paragraph 6.24 and section 4.3: £100 for households in council tax bands A to D in England, delivered by local authorities from January 2027.

Changes:

• new parameters gov.treasury.household_energy_payment.{amount, bands, countries} and variable household_energy_payment;
• the payment counts in household_benefits, gov_spending and pre_budget_change_household_benefits, as the Energy Bills Rebate does;
• it counts in HBAI income: DWP counted the 2022 £150 Council Tax Rebate and the Energy Bills Support Scheme as miscellaneous income (HBAI QMI FYE 2023). Round 1 of the review caught the earlier exclusion, which cited that rebate the wrong way round;
• it has its own fiscal partition head and programme entry.

Not modelled:

• the devolved governments' Barnett share;
• the £100m local-authority fund;
• liability: DESNZ pays the householder liable for council tax on their main home, most exempt households included. Survey data hold only main homes, but households whose landlord is liable can't be identified, so they are paid. The variable and docs say so.

Fixture fallout: council_tax_band defaults to D, so 2026 England fixtures with no band now carry the £100. Seven tests' totals are updated, each with a comment.

Pension Tax Allowance (item 52)

Sources:

• Paragraph 6.182;
• costings p. 63;
• the explainer.

The allowance is a non-refundable Step 6 reduction from 6 April 2027 to 5 April 2030:

• Who: people over State Pension age, or reaching it within the tax year (by 5 April).
• Full amount: 20% × (full new State Pension − Personal Allowance), rounded up to the pound. That is £94 in 2027-28.
• Taper: £1 for every £3 of total income above the full new State Pension, so nothing is left from £13,318.98 (the threshold plus three times £94 is £13,318.973; the explainer's £13,319).
• Threshold: the full annual value of the new State Pension, "the total income you are entitled to receive within the tax year" (explainer): 52 weeks at the weekly rate, read from gov.dwp.state_pension.new_state_pension.amount, so it follows any change to that rate, dated or undated. The model projects the April 2027 rate unrounded (241.30 × 1.039 = £250.711, from published inputs), so the threshold is £13,036.97, where the explainer gives £13,036.40, which is 52 × £250.70. Neither the explainer nor the Budget states the weekly rate, so the model doesn't enter £250.70; the gap closes when the uprating order sets the rate.
• Scottish taxpayers: it is worked out at 20%, then capped at their Step 5 tax (explainer FAQ).

Changes:

• Parameters: gov.hmrc.income_tax.reliefs.pension_tax_allowance.{in_effect, rate, taper}. There is no threshold parameter: the formula reads the new State Pension rate (above). An earlier version kept the explainer's £13,036.40 uprated by the new State Pension amount, which divided by zero under a nil-rate reform (CI at 835a765); 7de3747 uprated it by the triple lock index instead, which round 4 showed cut it loose from rate reforms (a pensioner on £15,600 under a £300 rate paid £606).
• Variable: a new pension_tax_allowance, last in income_tax_subtractions.
• Step 6 cap: each reduction is capped at the tax the earlier ones leave. A new helper, utils/income_tax_reductions.earlier_tax_reductions, gives that order. property_finance_cost_relief now uses the helper too, which avoids a dependency cycle.
• Universal Credit: UC's deduction for tax on earnings (utils/uc_income_tax.py) takes the income_tax_subtractions entries off the tax on earnings. It handles finance cost relief separately, against the tax on property income first. So it picks up the allowance with no change of its own. This settles @PavelMakarchuk's point on Budget day: announced measures uk-autumn-budget-dashboard-2026#290 (issuecomment-6472987762). His mixed-age couple comes out at an allowance of £93.28, UC −£51.30 and net income +£41.97.
• Fiscal partition: pension_tax_allowance is recorded as a component of income_tax.

Later years: the allowance is recomputed each year as 20% × (threshold − Personal Allowance): £159 in 2028-29 and £226 in 2029-30 on the current forecast. Someone on exactly the full new State Pension and nothing else pays no Income Tax at any rate (a Hypothesis property over rates from £0 to £400 a week). Uprating the £94 instead would leave someone on exactly the full new State Pension owing about £62 in 2028-29, which breaks the guarantee in ¶3.19 and ¶6.182. The reading is logged in ~/reviews/uk-hub/RULINGS.md.

Conflict to watch: draft #2545 restructures Step 6. Whichever lands second moves pension_tax_allowance into the new structure.

Tests:

• tests/policy/reforms/oct_2026_budget/pension_tax_allowance.yaml, 15 cases:
  • the explainer's five people on its inputs (Tom, Steph, Anne, Jonathan, Nadia; Nadia's income is all private pension, because the £166 the explainer quotes assumes no savings allowance). Jonathan gets £44.19, not the explainer's £44, because the threshold is 57p higher;
  • the end of the taper and one pound before it, on the model's threshold;
  • two Scottish cases;
  • under State Pension age;
  • reaching State Pension age on 5 April 2028 (qualifies) and on 6 April 2028 (doesn't);
  • 2026-27 and 2030-31, when there is no allowance;
  • 2028-29, which checks the recomputed threshold.
• tests/test_pension_tax_allowance_properties.py. Mutation check: with a 20% taper in place of 1 in 3, the first property fails. The full new State Pension pays no Income Tax without a reform, with the rate at £300 for 2028-29 only (allowance £606), and at any undated rate from £0 to £400 a week; the dated and undated reform tests fail on both earlier threshold versions.
• tests/test_pension_tax_allowance_universal_credit.py: Pavel's couple, and the same income as a private pension (UC unchanged).

Carer's Allowance taper (item 7)

Sources: paragraph 6.13 and costings p. 16. In England and Wales, the withdrawal of the allowance in full above the weekly earnings limit becomes a 100% taper on the earnings above it.

Start date: the costings say only "within the 2030-31 financial year, with a precise start date confirmed in due course". Until DWP confirms it, the model starts on 6 October 2030. applies is day-weighted (fiscal_year_blend), so 2030-31 carries 182 of 365 days. That is in line with Table 6.1's −£40m, then −£80m.

Changes:

• Parameters: gov.dwp.carers_allowance.earnings_taper.{applies, rate, countries}.
• Variable: a new carers_allowance_weekly_earnings_above_limit, using the existing pence rule. is_gainfully_employed_for_carers_allowance now reads it.
• Entitlement: carers_allowance_pre_couple_limit pays rate − taper × excess, floored at zero, where the taper applies.
• Downstream: carers_allowance_pre_overlap, and through it carers_allowance and UC unearned income (income_definitions/unearned.yaml), read the new amount.
• 2030-31, the year the taper starts: the weeks before the taper (183 of 365) and the weeks under it (182) each get the couple restriction and the overlapping-benefit rule on their own weekly award, then are weighted by their share of the year (utils/carers_allowance_taper.py, read by carers_allowance_pre_couple_limit, carers_allowance_pre_overlap and carers_allowance). Both rules work week by week:
  • a carer earning £250 a week with £40 a week of State Pension got £0 before round 1's fix; now £234.54 (182/365 × (rate − £46 − £40) × 52);
  • a couple caring for the same person, the head on £250 and the partner on £200, both with £40 of State Pension: the partner's award for the weeks before the head becomes eligible was suppressed for the whole year (round 2); now the head gets £234.54 and the partner £1,435.10 (183/365 × (rate − £40) × 52);
  • a supplied carers_allowance_pre_overlap carries no dates, so it still meets the whole year's overlapping benefits (round 2 caught the earlier fix dropping the deduction there);
  • the parts of the year reach the payment as shares of the year: within the parts where a person's weekly award is positive it is the same amount, so carers_allowance_pre_overlap is carers_allowance_pre_couple_limit times the share of those parts the couple restriction keeps, and carers_allowance takes the overlapping benefits off for the share kept. A value supplied for either intermediate, or a reform that neutralizes one, therefore reaches the payment (round 3 caught the round 2 fix recomputing the award and bypassing both);
  • the shares describe an amount only where the model's own formulas calculate it from the parts of the year. An amount that an input supplies, or that a reform neutralizes or calculates with a formula of its own, carries no dates, even where it equals the model's, since a value can't show where it came from: such a carers_allowance_pre_couple_limit gets the whole-year couple restriction and the whole year's overlap, and such a carers_allowance_pre_overlap the whole year's overlap. Each stage asks the simulation whether it calculates the earlier stage with the model's formula (calculated_from_parts_of_year in utils/carers_allowance_taper.py: no supplied input, not neutralized, and the formula's code is the model's, by calculated_by, now in utils/formula_origin.py), and the payment asks it of both stages. Rounds 4 and 5 caught the earlier value tests: a reform giving the partner £1,000 paid £0, and a reform changing only the partner's award, or setting the model's own amount, took off half the head's State Pension (£200.55 too much paid). A reform that updates a stage but keeps the model's formula keeps the parts of the year;
  • less than half a penny for the year is nil. Where an overlapping benefit equals the weekly award, the float32 annual amounts left about a thousandth of a pound, which made receives_carers_allowance true (round 3). A penny left over is paid: float32 stores £5,000.01 as £5,000.0098 (round 4 caught a £0.01 cutoff dropping it).
• Limitation: annual flags such as is_entitled_to_carer_benefit can't split the year, so in 2030-31 both partners of a couple who straddle the limit count as entitled, and both as receiving, for the year. The legacy carer premium and the UC carer element still give one amount. The Pension Credit carer addition counts entitled members, so it gives two: £5,505.49 for the couple above, against £2,752.75 when both partners are under the limit. This affects only couples over State Pension age who care for the same person and straddle the limit, in 2030-31.
• Not modelled: take-up among carers newly entitled above the limit. That comes from the data's would_claim_carers_allowance; there is no new draw.

Dependencies:

• Project the minimum wage rates by the OBR's national living wage forecast #2700: it projects the limit at 16 × NLW. The taper reads gov.dwp.carers_allowance.earnings_limit as it stands, and the tests read the limit and rate from the parameter tree, so they hold before and after Project the minimum wage rates by the OBR's national living wage forecast #2700.
• Count Carer's Allowance earnings-limit pence exactly #2543 (draft): it changes how the pence are read. Its change now belongs in carers_allowance_weekly_earnings_above_limit.

Tests: tests/test_carers_allowance_earnings_taper.py.

• Examples: at the limit; £10 over the limit, in England and in Wales; a full weekly rate over the limit; Scotland and Northern Ireland; 2029-30; the 2030-31 share.
• Properties: the allowance equals the rate less earnings above the limit; the taper never pays less than the cliff edge; weekly earnings plus the allowance never fall as earnings rise; Scotland and Northern Ireland are unchanged; in 2030-31 the final allowance is the weekly overlap rule over the paid weeks.
• Overlap examples: the £250 / £40 case above, the same in 2031-32, and a carer below the limit in 2030-31.
• Couples and supplied awards: the couple above, a couple both under the limit (one award all year), and supplied pre-overlap awards in England and Northern Ireland (also in tests/policy/reforms/oct_2026_budget/carers_allowance_earnings_taper.yaml).
• Intermediates and residue: a supplied carers_allowance_pre_couple_limit (£0 and £1,000) is what is paid, and neutralizing either intermediate pays nothing, in 2030-31 and 2031-32; a Hypothesis property that an overlapping benefit equal to the award leaves nothing paid or received; and the two 2030-31 properties also check anything paid is at least half a penny. The 10 new tests fail on 835a765. Round 4's: reforms replacing carers_allowance_pre_couple_limit (£1,000 to the partner) and carers_allowance_pre_overlap (£1,000 less £400 of State Pension for a head over the limit), and a penny left after overlap on £1,000.01 and £5,000.01; the 2030-31 replacement cases and the £5,000.01 cases fail on 7de3747. Round 5's: reforms that set the partner's award before the couple limit to nil, scale it by 1.0001 or add a penny, leaving the head's as the model's (the head gets the whole-year restriction and £400 off: the model's award less £400); a reform setting carers_allowance_pre_overlap to the model's own amounts (the whole year's £400 off each); a reform that relabels both stages, which keeps the model's parts-of-year payment; and a Hypothesis property that 2030-31 pays any award a reform sets before the couple limit as 2031-32 does, and as the whole-year rule gives (head if they have an award, otherwise the partner, less the whole year's State Pension). The four 2030-31 partner and model's-own cases fail on f51c6dc; with the payment's check of carers_allowance_pre_couple_limit removed, the three partner cases and the property fail.

OBR October 2026 EFO

María's #2717 moves the economic assumptions to the October EFO, so this PR doesn't. An independent import of the same tables agreed with #2717 on 122 changed values to 0.005pp; the rest differ only where #2717 makes a deliberate choice (2025 revised, smoothed 2032+ joins, OBR private rents, road fuel re-derived). A trial merge of #2717 into this branch conflicts only in the three fuel duty files. Whichever lands second takes this PR's calculate_fuel_duty_rates.py, reruns it with --update, and updates the hand-computed rates in test_fuel_duty_schedule.py and the two fuel duty YAML tests. #2717 derives road fuel volumes at the same 60.59p path.

Invariants

• Trading allowance: relief is between 0 and min(allowance, profit); the allowance never stacks on actual deductions; Income Tax doesn't fall as profit rises.
• Savings and property: the four identities in the section above.
• Fuel duty:
  • each model-year rate equals the day-by-day average of the dated schedule (a differential test, 2015 to 2040);
  • it lies between the rates in force that year;
  • rates never fall after 2022;
  • the written steps match the RPI series they cite.
• Electricity VAT: model-year rates equal the hand-counted day shares; with no reform, vat_change is zero.
• Household Energy Payment: 0 or £100; zero outside England, outside bands A to D and outside 2026-27; it adds one for one to household benefits, government spending and hbai_household_net_income (tests/test_household_energy_payment_income_measures.py).
• Pension Tax Allowance:
  • the threshold is 52 × the new State Pension weekly rate, so someone on the full new State Pension and nothing else pays no Income Tax at any rate;
  • 0 ≤ allowance ≤ max(0, full − excess / 3), so it is zero from three full allowances above the threshold;
  • nothing for anyone reaching State Pension age after the year;
  • Income Tax falls by exactly the allowance against the same law with it switched off, and never goes below zero;
  • each extra pound of income takes at most a third of a pound off the allowance, so there is no cliff edge.
• Carer's Allowance taper:
  • the weekly award is max(0, rate − (earnings − limit)) above the limit, in England and Wales from 2031-32;
  • it is never below the cliff-edge award;
  • earnings plus the allowance never fall;
  • Scotland and Northern Ireland are unchanged;
  • in 2030-31, the final allowance is the sum over the two parts of the year of share × 52 × max(0, weekly award − weekly overlapping benefits), where the couple restriction picks the head if eligible in that part, otherwise the partner (Hypothesis tests for single carers and couples);
  • a supplied or neutralized intermediate award is what reaches the payment;
  • the payment is 0 or at least half a penny, an overlapping benefit equal to the award leaves 0, not received, and a penny left over is paid;
  • an amount that an input supplies, or that a reform neutralizes or calculates with a formula of its own, at either intermediate reaches the payment with the whole year's restriction and overlap, even where it equals the model's; 2030-31 pays such an award as 2031-32 does (differential property); a reform that keeps the model's formulas keeps the parts of the year.
• Finance cost relief: never falls; rises by at most 2% of the costs relieved wherever the Budget 2025 relief was uncapped and the property allowance election is unchanged. Where the tax left capped it, the rise can be larger (worked test: £86 to £240); where the election changes, see the savings and property section (worked test: £4.40 less income tax). Review round 2's counterexample is pinned as a Hypothesis example on all four rate properties.
• LPG and natural gas: the 1 July 2027 rate is the full rate × 1.045565, rounded to 0.01p, and each April step applies the previous calendar year's RPI (test_road_fuel_gases_get_the_same_rpi_uprating).

Review

Round 1 (GPT-6.1 Sol, at e5e8942) requested changes on nine findings. Here is where each stands:

#	Finding	Status
1	Carer's Allowance: full-year overlap taken off the part-year taper amount	fixed (5bd68fd)
2	Household Energy Payment ignores council-tax liability	documented as a data limitation (d43e015)
3	LPG and natural gas miss the RPI uprating	fixed (9521429)
4	Household Energy Payment left out of HBAI on a misread precedent	fixed (d43e015)
5	Trading allowance doesn't reach miscellaneous income	pre-existing; separate PR
6	Finance cost relief bound claimed for every input	fixed (805bf0e)
7	float32 rounding can drop a penny of weekly earnings	pre-existing on main (is_gainfully_employed_for_carers_allowance); #2543 (draft) fixes it, storing the limit in pence
8	2030 YAML case still expected the cliff edge	fixed (948d15d)
9	Pending-law wording missing	fixed (1386278)

Round 2 (GPT-6.1 Sol, at 1386278) confirmed findings 1, 3, 4, 8 and 9 resolved and 2, 5 and 7 deliberately deferred, and requested changes on four more:

#	Finding	Status
1	Couple restriction applied to the whole of 2030-31, suppressing a partner below the limit before the taper starts	fixed (835a765)
2	The overlap fix dropped the deduction for a supplied pre-overlap award	fixed (835a765)
3	Round 1 finding 6's bound still fails when the property allowance election changes	fixed (835a765)
4	Excise docs still described flat gas rates and the old July uprating	fixed (835a765)

Round 3 (GPT-6.1 Sol, at 835a765) confirmed all four round 2 findings resolved and requested changes on three more:

#	Finding	Status
1	The 2030-31 calculation recomputed the award, so a supplied or neutralized carers_allowance_pre_couple_limit or carers_allowance_pre_overlap no longer reached the payment	fixed (b1c4f95)
2	Float32 residue where an overlapping benefit equals the award left a fraction of a penny and made receives_carers_allowance true	fixed (b1c4f95)
3	A fixture comment gave household income without pay as £5,098.80, not £5,198.80 with the Household Energy Payment	fixed (b1c4f95)

It also measured the annual-flag limitation; the Carer's Allowance section now gives its effects as measured.

CI at 835a765 also failed two of main's State Pension tests on the merge ref: the Pension Tax Allowance threshold was uprated by the new State Pension amount, so a reform setting that amount to nil divided by zero. 7de3747 uprated it by the triple lock index instead.

CI at 7de3747 failed one of main's tests on the merge ref: test_guarantee_credit_boundary_matches_main froze a £1.01 step in household net income where guarantee credit ends in 2028, for an 85-year-old on private pension. The Pension Tax Allowance takes them out of Income Tax at that point, and Pension Credit counts income net of tax (pension_credit_income.py), so guarantee credit ends at £13,165 of private pension rather than £13,315 and the step is £1.61. With the allowance off it is main's £1.01. f51c6dc merges main and pins both cases.

Round 4 (GPT-6.1 Sol, at 7de3747) confirmed round 3's findings 2 and 3 resolved and finding 1 partly, and requested changes on three:

#	Finding	Status
1	A reform replacing carers_allowance_pre_couple_limit with positive amounts still lost the award in 2030-31: the shares rebuilt eligibility from the original rules	fixed (d436a27)
2	7de3747's threshold no longer followed dated new State Pension rate reforms: £606 of tax on the full new State Pension at £300 a week	fixed (d436a27): the threshold is 52 × the weekly rate
3	The £0.01 cutoff dropped a real penny (£5,000.01 stored as £5,000.0098)	fixed (d436a27): the cutoff is half a penny

It also flagged two wording points: the assumptions page implied the couple restriction applies to a supplied carers_allowance_pre_overlap, and this body still named the old uprater. Both are fixed.

Round 5 (GPT-6.1 Sol, at f51c6dc) confirmed round 4's findings 2 and 3 resolved, checked the £1.61 Pension Credit step (£5 less £2 of Pension Credit, £1.06 of Housing Benefit and £0.33 of Council Tax Reduction; £1.01 with the allowance off), found no deleted-parameter readers, and requested changes on one:

#	Finding	Status
1	Telling the model's amounts from a reform's by value fails: a reform changing only the partner's award before the couple limit, or setting carers_allowance_pre_overlap to the model's own amounts, took off only the taper share of the head's State Pension (£200.55 too much paid)	fixed (bffa9e8): each stage checks the earlier stage's formula, not its value, and the payment checks both

It also noted that #2726 leaves round 1's finding 7 to #2543; the round 1 table now says so. And £13,318.97 leaves a fraction of a penny (the end is £13,318.973), so the taper line now says £13,318.98.

Round 6 is running at bffa9e8.

Differences from the dashboard

The dashboard (#290) carries its own copies of these measures. They differ from this PR in:

• the 2030-31 Carer's Allowance overlap (finding 1 applies there too);
• the Household Energy Payment in HBAI;
• the PTA's State Pension age test (the dashboard's is_SP_age is reached by 6 October; this PR and the explainer use the tax year);
• LPG and natural gas, which the dashboard doesn't change;
• the electricity VAT April to June weighting (above).

A list with effects goes to #290 separately.

Impact

Not run yet. To follow on this PR.

Checks

• Trading allowance, savings and property, fuel duty, electricity VAT, Household Energy Payment: run locally per measure (YAML and Python tests listed in the closed PRs)
• Pension Tax Allowance, Carer's Allowance taper: YAML suites for income tax, UC, benefit cap, Pension Credit, Treasury and the Budget reforms (1,547 passed), plus the Python files listed
• CI at d4f803b failed in six older test files that pinned pre-Budget values: the 22% property and savings rates (property rate reforms, finance cost relief accounting, the savings starting rate path, the ISA cash interest charge), the £1,000 trading allowance in pension relief, and household_benefits without the Household Energy Payment. e5e8942 moves them to the Budget values; the six files pass locally (137 tests)
• Review round 1 fixes: Carer's Allowance taper (16 passed), savings and property properties (5), fuel duty and excise (84 Python, 18 YAML), HBAI and Household Energy Payment lists (39 Python), DWP and Treasury YAML (813)
• EFO update: Update the economic assumptions to the October 2026 EFO #2717
• CI green
• CI at 1386278: the YAML job failed 8 cases in 4 files (uc_statutory_pay, warm_home_discount, hbai_property_income, trading_loss_household_income). Each pinned 2026 HBAI income for a band D household in England without the £100 Household Energy Payment, which round 1 moved into HBAI; 835a765 adds it and fixes the comments that said HBAI leaves it out
• Review round 2 fixes: carer, savings and property, and fuel duty Python tests (439 passed); full YAML suite (5,177 passed); carer YAML (778 passed)
• Review round 3 fixes: carer taper Python tests (31 passed; the 10 new ones fail on 835a765); full YAML suite (5,177 passed)
• CI at 835a765: Python shards 2 and 4 failed test_state_pension_components.py (a nil new State Pension rate divided by zero in the Pension Tax Allowance threshold's uprating); 7de3747 fixes it, and on a local merge with main that file and the PTA properties pass (38 tests)
• Review round 4 fixes: carer taper Python tests (39 passed; the 2030-31 replacement cases and the £5,000.01 cases fail on 7de3747), PTA Python tests (11 passed; the dated-reform and any-rate cases fail on 7de3747), PTA YAML (15 passed), full YAML suite (5,177 passed); on a local merge with main, the carer, PTA, State Pension and triple lock Python tests (272 passed)
• CI at 7de3747: Python shard 6 failed main's test_guarantee_credit_boundary_matches_main (the 2028 step where guarantee credit ends moves from £1.01 to £1.61 under the allowance); f51c6dc merges main and pins both cases, which pass locally (3 tests)
• Independent review (round 5 running)
• rulespec-uk parity issues

Reproducer: policyengine_uk/tests/policy/reforms/oct_2026_budget/savings_property_income_rates.yaml; policyengine_uk/tests/policy/reforms/oct_2026_budget/pension_tax_allowance.yaml; policyengine_uk/tests/test_carers_allowance_earnings_taper.py::test_ten_pounds_over_the_limit_takes_ten_pounds_off; policyengine_uk/tests/test_fuel_duty_schedule.py::test_scheduled_rate_on_each_date; policyengine_uk/tests/test_domestic_electricity_vat.py::test_rates_change_on_each_scheduled_date; policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/gov/treasury/household_energy_payment/household_energy_payment.yaml; policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/gov/hmrc/income_tax/allowances/trading_allowance_deduction.yaml

axiom: queued (rulespec-uk issues to follow; Budget 2026 measures are not yet legislated)

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

[github-actions]

Aggregate impact on certified data: pass

Base 2475bf58a8 against head 2eeaa95cef, both on enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5 (policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1, sha256 056e80fd8e91), fiscal years 2025-26 to 2031-32. Each year is a full microsimulation run on each side.

Checks: 0 broken by this change, 1 failing on both sides, 0 fixed. Moves flagged for review: 115 (thresholds in report_spec.yaml; a flag does not fail the job).

Workflow run and full report

New warnings

• Household Energy Payment is not zero for every unit (inert:household_energy_payment): 2025-26: zero for every unit; 2027-28: zero for every unit; 2028-29: zero for every unit

Notes

• This change edits the fiscal partition; review the partition diff alongside the moves it explains.
• In the years a figure from fewer than 10 records is suppressed (spending.disabled_students_allowance), every total containing it, and the decile incomes, are rebuilt from their other components, so no published total includes it. Those totals are marked †. A change is withheld where the two sides leave out different figures and can't be lined up.
• Household Energy Payment (spending.household_energy_payment) is measured on the head only.
• Household Energy Payment (caseloads.household_energy_payment) is measured on the head only.

Moves flagged for review

Measure	Year	Base	Head	Change
Decile 9: mean household_net_income per household	2027-28	£82,828	£80,877	-£1,951
Decile 9: mean household_net_income per household	2028-29	£84,135	£82,192	-£1,943
Decile 10: mean household_net_income per household	2027-28	£121,933	£124,664	+£2,730
Decile 10: mean household_net_income per household	2028-29	£124,163	£126,783	+£2,619
Decile 9: mean household_net_income per household	2029-30	£85,539	£83,778	-£1,761
Decile 10: mean household_net_income per household	2029-30	£126,045	£128,320	+£2,275
Government balance, each receipt once	2026-27	£398.03bn	£395.44bn	-£2.59bn
gov_balance	2026-27	£398.03bn	£395.44bn	-£2.59bn
Income tax	2030-31	£383.53bn	£385.68bn	+£2.15bn
Income tax	2031-32	£401.03bn	£403.27bn	+£2.24bn
Decile 9: mean household_net_income per household	2030-31	£87,053	£86,582	-£471
Income tax	2027-28	£335.60bn	£337.41bn	+£1.81bn
Income tax	2028-29	£350.52bn	£352.35bn	+£1.84bn
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household	2026-27	£17,906	£17,997	+£91
Income tax	2029-30	£365.79bn	£367.65bn	+£1.86bn
Government balance, each receipt once	2028-29	£455.77bn	£458.03bn	+£2.26bn
gov_balance	2028-29	£455.77bn	£458.03bn	+£2.26bn
Government balance, each receipt once	2030-31	£513.70bn	£516.21bn	+£2.52bn
gov_balance	2030-31	£513.70bn	£516.21bn	+£2.52bn
Government balance, each receipt once	2031-32	£545.72bn	£548.34bn	+£2.62bn
gov_balance	2031-32	£545.72bn	£548.34bn	+£2.62bn
Government balance, each receipt once	2029-30	£486.32bn	£488.62bn	+£2.30bn
gov_balance	2029-30	£486.32bn	£488.62bn	+£2.30bn
Fuel duties	2026-27	£24.64bn	£24.18bn	-£457.9m
Fuel duties	2027-28	£26.64bn	£26.21bn	-£425.5m
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household	2028-29	£51,914	£51,698	-£216
pre_budget_change_household_tax	2030-31	£618.05bn	£620.57bn	+£2.52bn
pre_budget_change_household_tax	2031-32	£644.75bn	£647.37bn	+£2.62bn
household_tax	2030-31	£627.65bn	£630.17bn	+£2.52bn
household_tax	2031-32	£654.69bn	£657.30bn	+£2.62bn
pre_budget_change_household_tax	2028-29	£568.63bn	£570.84bn	+£2.21bn
gov_spending	2026-27	£543.83bn	£545.94bn	+£2.11bn
household_benefits	2026-27	£543.83bn	£545.94bn	+£2.11bn
Government spending	2026-27	£543.83bn	£545.94bn	+£2.11bn
household_tax	2028-29	£577.74bn	£579.96bn	+£2.21bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%	2029-30	£-8.43bn	£-8.81bn	-£378.2m
Fuel duties	2028-29	£26.69bn	£27.07bn	+£377.4m
pre_budget_change_household_tax	2029-30	£593.98bn	£596.22bn	+£2.24bn
Fuel duties	2031-32	£26.35bn	£26.73bn	+£376.0m
Fuel duties	2029-30	£26.42bn	£26.79bn	+£375.9m

75 more flags are in the report artifact.

Receipts by tax head

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Income tax	0	0	+£1.81bn	+£1.84bn	+£1.86bn	+£2.15bn	+£2.24bn
Capital gains tax	0	0	-£19,052	-£17,068	-£16,859	-£15,182	-£13,357
VAT excluding private school fees	0	-£19.1m	-£327.8m	0	0	0	0
VAT on private school fees	0	0	+£3.5m	+£0.4m	+£0.3m	+£0.8m	+£2.8m
Fuel duties	0	-£457.9m	-£425.5m	+£377.4m	+£375.9m	+£368.1m	+£376.0m
TV licence fee	0	0	0	0	+£0.1m	-£28,038	-£28,105

Spending by benefit and service

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Pension Credit	0	0	-£10.9m	-£23.2m	-£38.7m	+£30,813	+£53,088
Universal Credit	0	0	-£0.8m	-£0.8m	-£0.4m	-£19.4m	-£34.6m
Housing Benefit	0	0	-£1.1m	-£17.3m	-£19.4m	+£556	+£581
Council Tax Reduction	0	0	-£77,142	-£0.2m	-£0.4m	+£25,772	+£29,346
Carer's Allowance	0	0	0	0	0	+£19.5m	+£34.8m
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed
Household Energy Payment (new: head levels)	£0.00bn	£2.11bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn

Caseloads

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Pension Credit	0	0	0	-2.3k	-3.1k	+156	+156
Housing Benefit	0	0	-267	-1.6k	-1.6k	0	0
Council Tax Reduction	0	0	0	-330	-332	0	0
Carer's Allowance	0	0	0	0	0	+15.2k	+15.2k
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed
Household Energy Payment (new: head levels)	0k	21,091k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k

Government balance, each component counted once

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Government receipts, each component once	0	-£477.0m	+£1.06bn	+£2.22bn	+£2.24bn	+£2.52bn	+£2.62bn
Government spending	0 †	+£2.11bn †	-£12.9m †	-£41.6m †	-£58.9m †	+£0.2m †	+£0.3m †
Government balance, each receipt once	0 †	-£2.59bn †	+£1.07bn †	+£2.26bn †	+£2.30bn †	+£2.52bn †	+£2.62bn †

Model totals

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
gov_tax	0	-£477.0m	+£1.06bn	+£2.22bn	+£2.24bn	+£2.52bn	+£2.62bn
household_tax	0	-£457.9m	+£1.38bn	+£2.21bn	+£2.24bn	+£2.52bn	+£2.62bn
pre_budget_change_household_tax	0	-£457.9m	+£1.38bn	+£2.21bn	+£2.24bn	+£2.52bn	+£2.62bn
gov_spending	0 †	+£2.11bn †	-£12.9m †	-£41.6m †	-£58.9m †	+£0.2m †	+£0.3m †
household_benefits	0 †	+£2.11bn †	-£12.9m †	-£41.6m †	-£58.9m †	+£0.2m †	+£0.3m †
gov_balance	0 †	-£2.59bn †	+£1.07bn †	+£2.26bn †	+£2.30bn †	+£2.52bn †	+£2.62bn †

Household income totals

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Household net income	0 †	+£2.57bn †	-£1.39bn †	-£2.26bn †	-£2.30bn †	-£2.52bn †	-£2.62bn †
Household net income (HBAI definition)	0	+£2.10bn	-£1.82bn	-£1.88bn	-£1.92bn	-£2.15bn	-£2.24bn

Poverty rates

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone	0	-0.13pp	+0.00pp	+0.00pp	-0.00pp	+0.00pp	+0.00pp
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children	0	-0.06pp	0	0	0	+0.00pp	+0.01pp
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	0	-0.16pp	+0.00pp	0	-0.00pp	+0.00pp	+0.00pp
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	0	-0.13pp	+0.01pp	+0.00pp	-0.02pp	0	0
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone	0	-0.10pp	-0.00pp	-0.00pp	-0.02pp	-0.01pp	-0.01pp
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children	0	-0.09pp	0	+0.00pp	-0.03pp	-0.02pp	-0.02pp
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	0	-0.10pp	-0.00pp	-0.00pp	-0.01pp	-0.00pp	-0.00pp
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	0	-0.09pp	-0.01pp	-0.01pp	-0.07pp	-0.00pp	0
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone	0	-0.06pp	-0.00pp	-0.00pp	+0.03pp	-0.01pp	+0.08pp
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children	0	-0.06pp	0	0	+0.07pp	-0.01pp	+0.21pp
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	0	-0.07pp	0	-0.00pp	+0.03pp	-0.00pp	+0.05pp
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	0	-0.06pp	-0.00pp	-0.02pp	+0.00pp	-0.01pp	+0.00pp
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone	0	-0.04pp	+0.08pp	-0.00pp	+0.00pp	+0.00pp	+0.00pp
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children	0	-0.03pp	+0.21pp	-0.00pp	-0.00pp	+0.00pp	0
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	0	-0.04pp	+0.05pp	-0.00pp	+0.01pp	+0.01pp	+0.01pp
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	0	-0.05pp	+0.05pp	-0.01pp	-0.00pp	-0.01pp	-0.01pp

People in poverty

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone	0	-91.4k	+1.6k	+87	-2.1k	+1.6k	+2.3k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children	0	-9.0k	0	0	0	+452	+1.2k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	0	-66.8k	+8	0	-180	+1.2k	+1.2k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	0	-15.6k	+1.6k	+87	-1.9k	0	0
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone	0	-66.8k	-1.6k	-107	-15.0k	-4.0k	-3.7k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children	0	-13.1k	0	+625	-4.0k	-2.9k	-2.9k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	0	-42.6k	-859	-74	-2.7k	-878	-880
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	0	-11.1k	-770	-658	-8.3k	-298	0
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone	0	-44.5k	-19	-2.8k	+22.4k	-5.2k	+53.7k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children	0	-8.6k	0	0	+10.0k	-2.3k	+31.9k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	0	-28.9k	0	-21	+12.2k	-1.5k	+21.4k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	0	-7.0k	-19	-2.8k	+230	-1.4k	+450
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone	0	-26.8k	+57.1k	-1.6k	+1.7k	+2.1k	+2.0k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children	0	-4.1k	+31.3k	-407	-76	+45	0
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	0	-16.3k	+20.1k	-548	+2.3k	+2.7k	+2.6k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	0	-6.4k	+5.6k	-680	-456	-712	-671

Inequality

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Gini coefficient, equivalised HBAI income before housing costs	0	-0.0005	-0.0005	-0.0006	-0.0006	-0.0006	-0.0006

Mean household net income in each side's own deciles

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household	0 †	+£91 †	+£6.71 †	-£58 †	+£16 †	-£13 †	-£16 †
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household	0 †	+£56 †	+£21 †	+£38 †	-£18 †	-£18 †	-£24 †
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household	0 †	+£130 †	-£34 †	-£21 †	-£8.34 †	-£25 †	-£15 †
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household	0 †	+£65 †	-£71 †	+£24 †	-£13 †	+£17 †	-£56 †
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household	0 †	-£15 †	+£145 †	-£96 †	-£13 †	-£19 †	-£44 †
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household	0 †	+£73 †	-£5.86 †	-£216 †	+£0.77 †	+£95 †	-£13 †
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household	0 †	+£80 †	+£4.43 †	+£111 †	-£49 †	-£176 †	+£61 †
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household	0 †	+£74 †	-£53 †	+£2.41 †	-£42 †	-£36 †	+£24 †
Decile 9: mean household_net_income per household	0 †	+£28 †	-£1,951 †	-£1,943 †	-£1,761 †	-£471 †	-£100 †
Decile 10: mean household_net_income per household	0 †	+£87 †	+£2,730 †	+£2,619 †	+£2,275 †	-£451 †	-£472 †

Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance)

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp	0	+£1,123	-£8.7m	-£1.6m	-£7.8m	-£5.0m	-£7.2m
Raise higher rate by 1pp	0	+£533	-£4.7m	+£0.8m	+£1.9m	-£58.1m	-£0.7m
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year	0	+£23,615	+£17.3m	+£44.5m	+£60.7m	-£13.6m	-£6.6m
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child	0	-£715	-£54,670	+£5.7m	-£0.2m	-£0.4m	-£2.3m
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%	0	+£38	+£45.1m	+£47.5m	+£0.9m	+£0.8m	-£0.9m
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%	0	+£1.1m	-£3.5m	+£2.7m	-£19.2m	suppressed	suppressed
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp	0	+£406	+£0.4m	+£44,498	+£32,809	+£81,227	+£0.3m
Raise additional rate by 3pp	0	-£872	-£3.3m	+£24.4m	+£22.8m	suppressed	suppressed
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%	0	+£0.9m	+£0.2m	+£4.1m	-£18.6m	-£9.2m	-£1.4m
Raise the State Pension by 10%	0	+£1.6m	-£242.6m	-£313.9m	-£378.2m	+£0.8m	-£60.7m

Standard reforms: change in each reform's target

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp: change in income_tax	0	0	-£5.1m	-£6.3m	-£7.8m	-£4.3m	-£4.3m
Raise higher rate by 1pp: change in income_tax	0	0	-£1.1m	-£1.2m	-£1.2m	-£1.2m	-£1.0m
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year: change in income_tax	0	0	+£28.6m	+£58.9m	+£82.6m	-£13.8m	-£5.9m
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%: change in universal_credit	0	0	-£0.7m	-£0.8m	-£1.2m	-£1.3m	-£1.2m
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%: change in national_insurance	0	0	0	0	0	suppressed	suppressed
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp: change in vat	0	-£137	+£792	0	0	0	0
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax	0	0	-£0.1m	-£0.1m	-£0.1m	suppressed	suppressed
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%: change in universal_credit	0	0	-£0	0	-£0.9m	-£1.4m	+£53

Household net income by decile

Mean change in household net income per household, and as a share of the decile's base income; households stay in the base run's deciles.

Base decile	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Decile 1	0	+£76 (+0.4%)	+£10 (+0.1%)	-£7 (-0.0%)	-£2 (-0.0%)	-£13 (-0.1%)	-£13 (-0.1%)
Decile 2	0	+£89 (+0.3%)	+£17 (+0.1%)	-£12 (-0.0%)	-£10 (-0.0%)	-£16 (-0.1%)	-£16 (-0.1%)
Decile 3	0	+£84 (+0.2%)	+£9 (+0.0%)	-£7 (-0.0%)	-£2 (-0.0%)	-£10 (-0.0%)	-£10 (-0.0%)
Decile 4	0	+£89 (+0.2%)	+£13 (+0.0%)	-£14 (-0.0%)	-£16 (-0.0%)	-£14 (-0.0%)	-£8 (-0.0%)
Decile 5	0	+£93 (+0.2%)	+£15 (+0.0%)	-£19 (-0.0%)	-£14 (-0.0%)	-£18 (-0.0%)	-£25 (-0.1%)
Decile 6	0	+£88 (+0.2%)	0	-£12 (-0.0%)	-£10 (-0.0%)	-£19 (-0.0%)	-£20 (-0.0%)
Decile 7	0	+£85 (+0.1%)	+£1 (+0.0%)	-£28 (-0.0%)	-£30 (-0.1%)	-£33 (-0.1%)	-£33 (-0.1%)
Decile 8	0	+£80 (+0.1%)	-£54 (-0.1%)	-£63 (-0.1%)	-£65 (-0.1%)	-£67 (-0.1%)	-£72 (-0.1%)
Decile 9	0	+£74 (+0.1%)	-£66 (-0.1%)	-£93 (-0.1%)	-£97 (-0.1%)	-£103 (-0.1%)	-£111 (-0.1%)
Decile 10	0	+£66 (+0.1%)	-£376 (-0.3%)	-£448 (-0.4%)	-£468 (-0.4%)	-£484 (-0.4%)	-£498 (-0.4%)
all	0	+£82 (+0.2%)	-£45 (-0.1%)	-£72 (-0.1%)	-£73 (-0.1%)	-£80 (-0.1%)	-£83 (-0.1%)

Year	People gaining over £1	People losing over £1
2025-26	0.0%	0.0%
2026-27	84.1%	0.0%
2027-28	45.1%	14.1%
2028-29	2.6%	57.1%
2029-30	3.0%	57.0%
2030-31	0.9%	58.2%
2031-32	0.9%	58.4%

No change in any year: population.

Checks failing on both base and head (1)

• VAT excluding private school fees is never negative (sign:vat): 2025-26: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-53,889,156 in total; 2026-27: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-55,422,765 in total; 2027-28: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-56,658,977 in total

Counted-once check

Each of 92 components was raised by £1 per unit in 2026-27, and every head of its totals was read household by household: its own head must rise by exactly £1, no other tax head may move, no other benefit may rise, and the model's own total must move by what its heads moved. A head that breaks a rule is measured again twice: with every other head held at its baseline value, and with every other head held at its value after the first £1 while the component rises again. It fails where either still shows the response. 0 failed; 0 were skipped.

• widowed_parents_allowance: pension_credit responds only through other heads in fewer than 10 households (other heads that moved there: carers_allowance; gov_spending; not a failure)
• widowed_parents_allowance: pension_credit responds only through other heads in fewer than 10 households (other heads that moved there: carers_allowance; household_benefits; not a failure)

Provenance

Side	Commit	Runtime	Environment hash	Partition hash	Time
base	main 2475bf58a8	uk 2.164.0 (files 6e91d97dc6a2), core 3.33.12, py 3.13.18 aarch64	8eafc5aaa169	1eac2ca06b91	1942.37s
head	#2719 merged into main 2eeaa95cef	uk 2.164.0 (files aa88e115d979), core 3.33.12, py 3.13.18 aarch64	8eafc5aaa169	beb7035bea19	1965.56s

Dataset: hf://policyengine/policyengine-uk-data-private/enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5@2526edbbb687a3b54dbb11272e5389e4b62d2ac2, sha256 056e80fd8e9151d78f432a25cde863340baee81304c6216a37fb575ce8563784 (verified on both sides), policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1.

Receipts by tax head: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Final charge on cash interest in non-cash ISAs	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Lifetime ISA withdrawal charge	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Income tax	£298.70bn	£318.31bn	£337.41bn	£352.35bn	£367.65bn	£385.68bn	£403.27bn
National Insurance (employee and self-employed)	£52.37bn	£54.71bn	£56.48bn	£58.15bn	£60.22bn	£62.11bn	£64.44bn
National Insurance (employer)	£150.59bn	£156.99bn	£161.74bn	£166.13bn	£173.24bn	£178.59bn	£185.29bn
Employer NI change borne by capital	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Employer NI change borne by consumers	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Capital gains tax	£12.61bn	£13.05bn	£13.53bn	£14.02bn	£14.52bn	£15.05bn	£15.58bn
Student loan repayments	£7.91bn	£8.21bn	£8.43bn	£8.63bn	£8.85bn	£9.10bn	£9.42bn
VAT excluding private school fees	£249.37bn	£255.26bn	£261.48bn	£267.87bn	£274.12bn	£280.56bn	£286.81bn
Change in VAT from its baseline	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
VAT on private school fees	£1.95bn	£2.00bn	£2.05bn	£2.10bn	£2.21bn	£2.21bn	£2.32bn
Change in private school VAT from its baseline	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Fuel duties	£24.53bn	£24.18bn	£26.21bn	£27.07bn	£26.79bn	£26.13bn	£26.73bn
Alcohol duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Tobacco duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Vehicle excise duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Betting and gaming duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
TV licence fee	£4.26bn	£4.41bn	£4.42bn	£4.44bn	£4.45bn	£4.47bn	£4.48bn
Council tax	£49.21bn	£51.88bn	£54.97bn	£58.29bn	£61.55bn	£64.92bn	£68.49bn
High value council tax surcharge	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.48bn	£0.49bn	£0.50bn	£0.51bn
Northern Ireland domestic rates	£0.55bn	£0.58bn	£0.60bn	£0.63bn	£0.66bn	£0.69bn	£0.72bn
Business rates	£34.68bn	£38.04bn	£38.88bn	£39.76bn	£43.07bn	£43.13bn	£44.57bn
Stamp duty land tax on the household's own purchases	£6.90bn	£7.39bn	£7.81bn	£8.21bn	£8.62bn	£9.02bn	£9.42bn
Stamp duty land tax paid by companies	£4.81bn	£5.98bn	£6.73bn	£7.46bn	£8.21bn	£8.87bn	£9.16bn
Land transaction tax (Wales)	£0.07bn	£0.08bn	£0.09bn	£0.09bn	£0.10bn	£0.10bn	£0.11bn
Land and buildings transaction tax (Scotland)	£0.31bn	£0.32bn	£0.34bn	£0.35bn	£0.37bn	£0.38bn	£0.40bn
Unspecified tax change borne by capital	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Unspecified tax change borne by consumers	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Wealth tax	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Wealth tax excluding the main residence	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Land value tax	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Carbon tax	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn

Spending by benefit and service: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Lifetime ISA bonus	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
State Pension	£121.64bn	£126.07bn	£127.08bn	£128.87bn	£132.52bn	£136.31bn	£140.08bn
Pension Credit	£6.66bn	£7.04bn	£7.31bn	£7.44bn	£7.56bn	£7.77bn	£7.94bn
Winter Fuel Payment	£1.86bn	£1.86bn	£1.80bn	£1.78bn	£1.79bn	£1.79bn	£1.80bn
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland)	£0.19bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.21bn	£0.21bn	£0.22bn	£0.22bn
Universal Credit	£75.21bn	£80.38bn	£82.93bn	£84.23bn	£85.57bn	£86.85bn	£87.93bn
Housing Benefit	£8.55bn	£8.89bn	£9.17bn	£9.29bn	£9.56bn	£9.84bn	£10.10bn
Council Tax Reduction	£2.07bn	£2.18bn	£2.32bn	£2.46bn	£2.60bn	£2.74bn	£2.89bn
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related)	£0.79bn	£0.81bn	£0.83bn	£0.85bn	£0.86bn	£0.89bn	£0.90bn
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based)	£5.20bn	£5.34bn	£5.46bn	£5.59bn	£5.72bn	£5.85bn	£5.99bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based)	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based)	£0.29bn	£0.30bn	£0.30bn	£0.31bn	£0.32bn	£0.32bn	£0.33bn
Income Support	£0.11bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Working Tax Credit	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Child Tax Credit	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Incapacity Benefit	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Personal Independence Payment	£26.94bn	£28.06bn	£29.13bn	£29.83bn	£30.54bn	£31.26bn	£31.96bn
Disability Living Allowance	£7.49bn	£7.80bn	£8.10bn	£8.29bn	£8.49bn	£8.69bn	£8.88bn
Attendance Allowance	£8.68bn	£9.04bn	£9.38bn	£9.61bn	£9.83bn	£10.07bn	£10.29bn
Carer's Allowance	£4.48bn	£4.67bn	£4.84bn	£4.96bn	£5.08bn	£5.21bn	£5.34bn
Carer Support Payment (Scotland)	£0.31bn	£0.32bn	£0.33bn	£0.34bn	£0.35bn	£0.36bn	£0.37bn
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland)	£0.00bn	£0.04bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn
Severe Disablement Allowance	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit	£0.50bn	£0.52bn	£0.53bn	£0.54bn	£0.55bn	£0.57bn	£0.58bn
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme	£0.61bn	£0.62bn	£0.64bn	£0.65bn	£0.67bn	£0.68bn	£0.70bn
War Widow's or Widower's Pension	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Child Benefit	£16.16bn	£16.83bn	£17.43bn	£17.85bn	£18.26bn	£18.69bn	£19.10bn
Scottish Child Payment	£0.49bn	£0.52bn	£0.54bn	£0.55bn	£0.56bn	£0.57bn	£0.56bn
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual)	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Healthy Start vouchers	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn
Maternity Allowance	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Statutory Maternity Pay	£3.30bn	£3.39bn	£3.47bn	£3.55bn	£3.63bn	£3.72bn	£3.80bn
Statutory Paternity Pay	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Statutory Sick Pay	£1.12bn	£1.15bn	£1.18bn	£1.21bn	£1.24bn	£1.27bn	£1.29bn
Sure Start Maternity Grant	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn
Bereavement Support Payment	£0.67bn	£0.69bn	£0.70bn	£0.72bn	£0.73bn	£0.75bn	£0.77bn
Widowed Parent's Allowance	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Tax-Free Childcare	£0.55bn	£0.56bn	£0.57bn	£0.58bn	£0.59bn	£0.61bn	£0.59bn
Extended childcare entitlement	£2.99bn	£3.50bn	£3.60bn	£3.67bn	£3.77bn	£3.85bn	£3.94bn
Universal childcare entitlement	£2.05bn	£2.23bn	£2.28bn	£2.34bn	£2.40bn	£2.47bn	£2.52bn
Targeted childcare entitlement	£0.50bn	£0.51bn	£0.52bn	£0.53bn	£0.54bn	£0.56bn	£0.52bn
Childcare Offer for Wales	£0.26bn	£0.28bn	£0.28bn	£0.29bn	£0.30bn	£0.30bn	£0.31bn
Care to Learn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Childcare Grant	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Parents' Learning Allowance	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn
Adult Dependants' Grant	£0.06bn	£0.06bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn
Travel Grant	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
NHS spending	£203.83bn	£204.54bn	£205.13bn	£205.79bn	£206.49bn	£207.23bn	£207.73bn
State education spending	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn
Transport subsidy spending	£25.05bn	£25.13bn	£25.21bn	£25.29bn	£25.37bn	£25.46bn	£25.53bn
Cost-of-living support payment	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Energy Bills Rebate	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Household Energy Payment	£0.00bn	£2.11bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Basic income	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Disability basic income	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Other public spending budget change	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn

Caseloads: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Lifetime ISA bonus	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
State Pension	11,261k	11,158k	10,849k	10,746k	10,783k	10,822k	10,848k
Pension Credit	1,485k	1,483k	1,480k	1,458k	1,459k	1,464k	1,461k
Winter Fuel Payment	7,842k	7,793k	7,494k	7,407k	7,432k	7,459k	7,477k
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland)	803k	803k	803k	800k	803k	806k	808k
Universal Credit	6,334k	6,341k	6,366k	6,347k	6,345k	6,333k	6,298k
Housing Benefit	1,249k	1,247k	1,249k	1,233k	1,236k	1,240k	1,239k
Council Tax Reduction	3,175k	3,198k	3,209k	3,229k	3,244k	3,257k	3,264k
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related)	71k	71k	71k	71k	71k	72k	72k
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based)	719k	721k	723k	726k	728k	731k	732k
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based)	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based)	67k	67k	67k	68k	68k	68k	68k
Income Support	25k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Working Tax Credit	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Child Tax Credit	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Incapacity Benefit	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Personal Independence Payment	3,566k	3,579k	3,589k	3,601k	3,613k	3,626k	3,635k
Disability Living Allowance	1,291k	1,295k	1,299k	1,303k	1,308k	1,312k	1,316k
Attendance Allowance	1,694k	1,700k	1,705k	1,711k	1,716k	1,723k	1,727k
Carer's Allowance	1,034k	1,038k	1,041k	1,044k	1,048k	1,066k	1,068k
Carer Support Payment (Scotland)	71k	71k	72k	72k	72k	72k	73k
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland)	0k	71k	72k	72k	72k	72k	73k
Severe Disablement Allowance	4k	4k	4k	4k	4k	4k	4k
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit	137k	137k	138k	138k	139k	139k	140k
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme	93k	93k	94k	94k	94k	95k	95k
War Widow's or Widower's Pension	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Child Benefit	8,102k	8,128k	8,142k	8,165k	8,191k	8,216k	8,232k
Scottish Child Payment	350k	352k	353k	357k	354k	355k	342k
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual)	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Healthy Start vouchers	199k	200k	201k	201k	202k	203k	203k
Maternity Allowance	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Statutory Maternity Pay	332k	334k	335k	336k	337k	338k	339k
Statutory Paternity Pay	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Statutory Sick Pay	181k	182k	182k	183k	183k	184k	185k
Sure Start Maternity Grant	26k	26k	26k	26k	26k	27k	27k
Bereavement Support Payment	98k	98k	98k	99k	99k	99k	100k
Widowed Parent's Allowance	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Tax-Free Childcare	1,014k	1,024k	1,024k	1,027k	1,027k	1,031k	1,013k
Extended childcare entitlement	796k	801k	806k	809k	815k	819k	820k
Universal childcare entitlement	1,071k	1,074k	1,077k	1,080k	1,086k	1,096k	1,097k
Targeted childcare entitlement	165k	156k	154k	155k	155k	156k	144k
Childcare Offer for Wales	39k	39k	39k	39k	39k	39k	39k
Care to Learn	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Childcare Grant	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Parents' Learning Allowance	98k	98k	99k	99k	99k	100k	100k
Adult Dependants' Grant	18k	18k	12k	12k	12k	13k	13k
Travel Grant	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Cost-of-living support payment	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Energy Bills Rebate	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Household Energy Payment	0k	21,091k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Basic income	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Disability basic income	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k

Government balance, each component counted once: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Government receipts, each component once	£898.82bn	£941.38bn	£981.17bn	£1,016.05bn	£1,055.13bn	£1,091.53bn	£1,131.72bn
Government spending	£528.95bn †	£545.94bn †	£551.67bn †	£558.02bn †	£566.51bn †	£575.31bn †	£583.38bn †
Government balance, each receipt once	£369.87bn †	£395.44bn †	£429.50bn †	£458.03bn †	£488.62bn †	£516.21bn †	£548.34bn †
Benefits in household_benefits but not in gov_spending	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn

Model totals: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
gov_tax	£898.82bn	£941.38bn	£981.17bn	£1,016.05bn	£1,055.13bn	£1,091.53bn	£1,131.72bn
household_tax	£496.91bn	£527.14bn	£555.89bn	£579.96bn	£605.56bn	£630.17bn	£657.30bn
pre_budget_change_household_tax	£489.00bn	£518.93bn	£547.46bn	£570.84bn	£596.22bn	£620.57bn	£647.37bn
gov_spending	£528.95bn †	£545.94bn †	£551.67bn †	£558.02bn †	£566.51bn †	£575.31bn †	£583.38bn †
household_benefits	£528.95bn †	£545.94bn †	£551.67bn †	£558.02bn †	£566.51bn †	£575.31bn †	£583.38bn †
gov_balance	£369.87bn †	£395.44bn †	£429.50bn †	£458.03bn †	£488.62bn †	£516.21bn †	£548.34bn †

Household income totals: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Household market income	£1,651.49bn	£1,713.03bn	£1,764.05bn	£1,812.97bn	£1,862.19bn	£1,918.39bn	£1,985.28bn
Household net income	£1,644.42bn †	£1,691.26bn †	£1,718.15bn †	£1,748.36bn †	£1,779.38bn †	£1,818.56bn †	£1,864.78bn †
Household net income (HBAI definition)	£1,457.29bn	£1,506.59bn	£1,535.76bn	£1,567.48bn	£1,600.75bn	£1,638.34bn	£1,684.80bn

Population: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
People	69,224k	69,466k	69,668k	69,891k	70,128k	70,381k	70,550k
Benefit units	35,100k	35,223k	35,325k	35,438k	35,558k	35,686k	35,772k
Households	31,037k	31,145k	31,236k	31,336k	31,442k	31,555k	31,631k

Poverty rates: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone	16.0%	14.9%	15.4%	15.5%	15.6%	15.7%	15.7%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children	24.0%	21.1%	21.3%	21.3%	21.5%	21.8%	21.8%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	13.8%	13.3%	13.9%	14.1%	14.1%	14.2%	14.2%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	13.7%	13.0%	13.1%	13.4%	13.4%	13.5%	13.5%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone	21.4%	20.7%	21.3%	21.5%	21.7%	21.9%	22.2%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children	33.0%	30.7%	31.1%	31.1%	31.4%	31.7%	32.2%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	19.8%	19.5%	20.2%	20.5%	20.7%	20.8%	21.1%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	12.7%	12.3%	12.3%	12.5%	12.8%	12.9%	13.0%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone	17.2%	16.4%	16.5%	16.4%	16.2%	16.3%	16.6%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children	26.2%	23.4%	23.4%	23.1%	22.7%	22.7%	23.3%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	14.6%	14.3%	14.7%	14.7%	14.6%	14.6%	14.9%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	15.0%	14.8%	14.1%	14.1%	14.0%	14.0%	14.2%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone	21.6%	21.0%	21.2%	21.2%	21.3%	21.4%	21.8%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children	33.3%	31.2%	31.0%	30.7%	31.0%	31.0%	31.5%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	19.9%	19.8%	20.1%	20.3%	20.4%	20.5%	20.7%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	12.9%	12.4%	12.2%	11.9%	11.8%	11.9%	12.8%

People in poverty: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone	11,057k	10,374k	10,736k	10,860k	10,958k	11,055k	11,084k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children	3,580k	3,162k	3,210k	3,220k	3,261k	3,306k	3,318k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	5,853k	5,679k	6,021k	6,123k	6,169k	6,211k	6,220k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	1,625k	1,534k	1,505k	1,517k	1,528k	1,539k	1,545k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone	14,847k	14,355k	14,806k	14,994k	15,227k	15,398k	15,634k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children	4,937k	4,596k	4,671k	4,686k	4,753k	4,811k	4,909k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	8,406k	8,317k	8,731k	8,898k	9,022k	9,113k	9,239k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	1,504k	1,443k	1,403k	1,410k	1,452k	1,474k	1,486k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone	11,896k	11,358k	11,468k	11,484k	11,395k	11,463k	11,706k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children	3,918k	3,515k	3,519k	3,491k	3,429k	3,456k	3,548k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	6,202k	6,107k	6,338k	6,399k	6,378k	6,414k	6,536k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	1,776k	1,737k	1,611k	1,594k	1,588k	1,594k	1,621k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone	14,957k	14,570k	14,755k	14,824k	14,953k	15,044k	15,353k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children	4,976k	4,673k	4,661k	4,634k	4,690k	4,712k	4,794k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	8,443k	8,439k	8,700k	8,846k	8,918k	8,979k	9,095k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	1,537k	1,459k	1,393k	1,344k	1,345k	1,353k	1,464k

Inequality: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Gini coefficient, equivalised HBAI income before housing costs	0.3085	0.3054	0.3059	0.3065	0.3069	0.3075	0.3089

Mean household net income in each side's own deciles: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household	£17,781 †	£17,997 †	£17,839 †	£17,847 †	£18,159 †	£18,326 †	£18,467 †
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household	£27,962 †	£28,973 †	£28,676 †	£28,944 †	£29,078 †	£29,628 †	£30,211 †
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household	£34,380 †	£35,593 †	£36,031 †	£36,488 †	£36,841 †	£37,313 †	£38,028 †
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household	£38,785 †	£40,778 †	£41,802 †	£42,437 †	£43,133 †	£43,923 †	£44,111 †
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household	£43,788 †	£44,611 †	£45,751 †	£46,192 †	£47,314 †	£48,266 †	£49,667 †
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household	£48,210 †	£49,598 †	£50,730 †	£51,698 †	£52,204 †	£53,269 †	£54,190 †
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household	£56,218 †	£57,305 †	£57,769 †	£58,121 †	£58,991 †	£59,885 †	£61,826 †
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household	£69,150 †	£70,607 †	£71,746 †	£73,077 †	£74,050 †	£75,505 †	£77,451 †
Decile 9: mean household_net_income per household	£79,490 †	£81,449 †	£80,877 †	£82,192 †	£83,778 †	£86,582 †	£89,844 †
Decile 10: mean household_net_income per household	£117,581 †	£120,383 †	£124,664 †	£126,783 †	£128,320 †	£127,891 †	£130,638 †

Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance): head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp	£6.47bn	£6.76bn	£6.66bn	£6.86bn	£7.05bn	£7.34bn	£7.54bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp	£3.69bn	£3.98bn	£4.03bn	£4.29bn	£4.46bn	£4.73bn	£4.91bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year	£-3.82bn	£-3.94bn	£-3.99bn	£-4.04bn	£-4.12bn	£-4.19bn	£-2.01bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child	£-1.99bn	£-1.75bn	£-1.56bn	£-1.45bn	£-1.35bn	£-1.23bn	£-1.13bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%	£-20.39bn	£-20.96bn	£-21.34bn	£-21.57bn	£-21.87bn	£-22.17bn	£-22.60bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%	£11.02bn	£11.42bn	£11.77bn	£12.07bn	£12.35bn	suppressed	suppressed
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp	£24.89bn	£25.55bn	£26.14bn	£26.75bn	£27.39bn	£28.03bn	£28.66bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp	£2.96bn	£3.21bn	£3.26bn	£3.48bn	£3.67bn	suppressed	suppressed
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%	£-3.05bn	£-3.18bn	£-3.29bn	£-3.33bn	£-3.40bn	£-3.43bn	£-3.48bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%	£-7.79bn	£-8.02bn	£-8.25bn	£-8.44bn	£-8.81bn	£-8.54bn	£-8.93bn

Standard reforms: change in each reform's target: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp: change in income_tax	£6.61bn	£6.91bn	£6.83bn	£7.02bn	£7.23bn	£7.46bn	£7.72bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp: change in income_tax	£3.69bn	£3.99bn	£4.04bn	£4.25bn	£4.47bn	£4.74bn	£4.93bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year: change in income_tax	£-3.95bn	£-4.08bn	£-4.14bn	£-4.18bn	£-4.26bn	£-4.42bn	£-1.76bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child: change in child_benefit	£2.33bn	£2.14bn	£1.95bn	£1.84bn	£1.73bn	£1.62bn	£1.50bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%: change in universal_credit	£20.39bn	£20.95bn	£21.37bn	£21.62bn	£21.87bn	£22.22bn	£22.61bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%: change in national_insurance	£11.28bn	£11.74bn	£12.06bn	£12.37bn	£12.69bn	suppressed	suppressed
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp: change in vat	£24.69bn	£25.35bn	£25.94bn	£26.54bn	£27.17bn	£27.81bn	£28.43bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax	£2.96bn	£3.21bn	£3.26bn	£3.46bn	£3.66bn	suppressed	suppressed
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%: change in universal_credit	£3.05bn	£3.18bn	£3.29bn	£3.36bn	£3.42bn	£3.47bn	£3.52bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%: change in state_pension	£10.68bn	£11.18bn	£11.31bn	£11.55bn	£12.00bn	£12.44bn	£12.94bn

[juaristi22]

Checked against what Microcosm needs to score the Budget measures (PolicyEngine/microcosm#1418). This PR covers most of the engine side. Three things look missing:

1. Machine Games Duty (Table 6.1 line 56).
   • OOTLAR para 1.50: from 1 April 2027, machines with a maximum charge to play above £1, or a maximum prize above £100, move to the higher rate of 25%.
   • machine_games_duty has only the lower, standard and higher net-takings inputs, so the change can't be expressed.
   • It needs an input for the standard-class takings of those machines (Category B), taxed at the standard rate to 31 March 2027 and at the higher rate after. Microcosm will write it from the Gambling Commission's machine yield by category.
2. Savings income growth (line 62).
   • The costing grows its base "using the OBR's forecast for growth in savings income" (costings p. 75).
   • Project savings interest by interest received per person #2638 moves savings_interest_income to interest received per person, but leaves other_investment_income on per_capita.gdp. That input is taxed as savings income too, through taxable_savings_interest_income, so it should follow the same series.
   • Microcosm will also fill it from the FRS's NS&I bond and gilt accounts, beside the SPI's (microcosm#1418).
3. Trading allowance on miscellaneous income (line 15). Round 1's finding 5 leaves it to a separate PR. Update and add PolicyEngine metadata to UC work allowances #290's review puts it at about £71m in 2027-28, beside a costing of −£165m to −£180m in its mature years. Microcosm already writes miscellaneous_income, so that PR would score as soon as it lands. It's worth having in the same release.

For the Carer's Allowance taper, the newly entitled carers come from the data's would_claim_carers_allowance, as the PR says. Microcosm is restricting that pool to carers of someone receiving a qualifying benefit (microcosm#1418).

The next Microcosm national and local-area pair waits for this PR's release, with #2712.

[MaxGhenis]

@juaristi22 On item 1 of your comment: Machine Games Duty (Table 6.1 line 56) now has its own draft, #2731.

• It adds machine_games_standard_rate_higher_stake_net_takings: the part of machine_games_standard_rate_net_takings from machines with a maximum charge to play above £1 or a maximum prize above £100. Under the Gambling Commission's limits those are the Category B machines.
• The new input is a subset of the standard-rate input, not a separate amount. Microcosm's standard-rate column, built from HMRC's MGD liabilities, stays as it is, and the new column takes Category B's share of it.
• The duty charges that part at 20% to 31 March 2027 and at 25% from 1 April 2027. Model year 2026 (6 April 2026 to 5 April 2027) takes 5 of its 365 days at 25%.
• A dated switch, gov.hmrc.gambling_duty.machine_games.higher_stake_machines_at_higher_rate, turns the change off for a counterfactual.

It stays a draft until review agrees, and won't merge in Budget week.

[MaxGhenis]

Thanks. Where each one is:

1. Machine Games Duty (line 56). Agreed: machine_games_duty takes only the lower, standard and higher net-takings inputs, so there's no way to move the Category B machines from 1 April 2027. It isn't one of the eight Table 6.1 items this PR covers, so it'll be its own PR. That PR adds an input for the standard-class takings of machines with a maximum charge above £1 or a maximum prize above £100, taxed at the standard rate to 31 March 2027 and at the higher rate after, so Microcosm can write it from the Gambling Commission's yield by category.
2. Savings income growth (line 62). Grow savings income by the OBR's savings income forecast to 2025-26 #2723 (draft) grows other_investment_income in the dataset projection by the OBR's savings income forecast, with savings_interest_income and the ISA cash interest. Values given directly to a calculation still use the index each variable declares, which for other_investment_income is per capita GDP.
3. Trading allowance on miscellaneous income (line 15). That's Count the 2022 Energy Bills Rebate in HBAI income, and apply the trading allowance to Chapter 8 miscellaneous income #2726 (draft), with the 2022 Energy Bills Rebate in HBAI. It can go in the same release as this PR if both are ready.

On the Carer's Allowance pool: noted. This PR doesn't add a draw, so restricting would_claim_carers_allowance in Microcosm is what sets who takes up the taper.