[MaxGhenis]

Fixes #2724
Fixes #2725

What and why

The review of #2719 (Autumn Budget 2026 baseline) found two pre-existing bugs. This PR fixes them outside #2719 and together, so one merge-queue pass covers both. It is not for merging during the Budget-week hold.

A third item from that review, Carer's Allowance penny rounding at the earnings limit, is already fixed more thoroughly by open draft #2543 (issue #2541). #2543 stores the limit in pence and applies reg. 5 per step, while the review's patch used a float tolerance, so it is not repeated here.

1. The 2022 Energy Bills Rebate in HBAI income (#2724)

Bug. energy_bills_rebate (the Energy Bills Support Scheme credit plus the £150 Council Tax Rebate) counted in household_net_income and gov_spending, but not in hbai_household_net_income, the income behind the poverty statistics. HBAI counts both. The HBAI quality and methodology report for FYE 2023 puts the EBSS (£400, or £600 in Northern Ireland) and the £150 Council Tax Rebate under miscellaneous income, not state support, and DWP imputes receipt because the FRS did not ask about them.

No double counting. The FRS fields behind miscellaneous_income in policyengine-uk-data (frs.py: current odd-job income oddjob.ojamt, plus allpay2, royyr2–royyr4, chamtern and chamttst) hold no rebate, so adding the rebate counts it once. (allpay2 reaching both miscellaneous_income and private_transfer_income is a separate, known overlap, policyengine-uk-data#627.) It stays out of hbai_benefits, which HBAI keeps for state support.

Second bug found on the way: the Council Tax Rebate was paid again in 2023-24. council_tax_rebate/amount.yaml set £150 from 1 January 2022 to 1 October 2023. Fiscal-year parameters are read at 30 April, so the model paid £150 in 2022-23 and again in 2023-24. The existing test case expected £150 in 2023. Counting the rebate in HBAI income would have counted that second payment too. The billing authority guidance makes it a one-off: eligibility was fixed on 1 April 2022 and billing authorities made every payment by 30 September 2022 (paragraphs 7, 14 and 19). The parameter is now £150 from 2022-04-01 to 2022-09-30 and zero otherwise.

Timing: HBAI counts the rebate by financial year. HBAI is a financial-year statistic and counts the whole EBSS in FYE 2023. The model sums the monthly credit by calendar year (#2103's convention): £199 in 2022 and £201 in 2023 for a household on the scheme throughout. Fiscal-year parameters are read at 30 April, so model year 2022 is 2022-23, the HBAI year that should hold all £400. A new variable, hbai_energy_bills_rebate, sums the monthly credit from April of the year to the next March, plus the Council Tax Rebate and the annual top-up parameter. That puts £400 in 2022-23 (Northern Ireland's January 2023 payment included) and nothing in 2023-24. energy_bills_rebate keeps the calendar-year sum for household_net_income and gov_spending.

The financial-year sum reads January to March of the next calendar year, including the household's country in that year. Datasets carry inputs forward. A situation that sets country for one year only gets the default (England) the next year, while region carries forward, so the new tests set region.

Changes.

• New variable hbai_energy_bills_rebate, added to HBAI_HOUSEHOLD_NET_INCOME_ADDS next to the Warm Home Discount.
• council_tax_rebate/amount.yaml now covers 2022-23 only.
• The existing CTR test case moves from 2023 to 2022. New cases cover 2021, 2023 (bands A, D and E), and HBAI income in 2022-23 and 2023-24, in Great Britain and in Northern Ireland.
• The docs page cost-of-living-payments.md now describes the monthly EBSS, the 2022-23-only CTR and HBAI's financial-year treatment. It previously described a flat £200 credit.

2. The trading allowance on Chapter 8 miscellaneous income (#2725)

Bug. The trading allowance covers "relevant income": trade receipts plus "miscellaneous income" (ITTOIA 2005 s. 783AC). The model applied it to trades only.

Law. These are from ITTOIA 2005 Part 6A Chapter 1.

• s. 783AB: miscellaneous income is income chargeable under Part 5 Chapter 8 (income not otherwise charged, s. 687), before expenses, excluding rent-a-room receipts. s. 688(2)(za) makes the Chapter 8 charge subject to Part 6A.
• s. 783AE, s. 783AG: full relief. With relevant income within the allowance, the miscellaneous income less its expenses is treated as nil.
• s. 783AJ, s. 783AK: partial relief, by election (s. 783AM). The miscellaneous income less its share of the allowance is chargeable. The trade and miscellaneous shares add up to the allowance, and the individual chooses the split (s. 783AK(3)). A trade's step 2 can't go negative (s. 783AK(4)) and the miscellaneous share can't create a loss (s. 783AK(5)).
• s. 783AL, s. 783AM: full relief applies unless the individual elects out of it (s. 783AL), and partial relief needs an election (s. 783AM; s. 783AH(c)). Either way, the treatment covers the relevant income as a whole.

Royalties, other Part 5 chapters, and the SPI's benefits and termination payments are in miscellaneous_income but are not Chapter 8 income, so they get no allowance.

Design.

• New input income_not_otherwise_charged (person, year): the Chapter 8 part of miscellaneous_income. It is optional and defaults to zero, because no dataset separates it yet (see Follow-ups). It is capped at miscellaneous_income and never adds to it.
• New helper utils/trading_allowance.py::trading_allowance_reliefs makes one decision for the whole relevant income and returns (trade_relief, miscellaneous_relief).
  • The trade side is exactly the existing trading_allowance_deduction logic, unchanged when there is no Chapter 8 income.
  • The miscellaneous income gets the part of the allowance that the trade receipts leave. Trade-first allocation keeps Class 4 as low as it can be.
  • Every valid split leaves the same trade plus miscellaneous income: relevant income less the allowance. Two reliefs read the trade's share alone, so a smaller trade share can charge less income tax this year. The model keeps trade-first in both cases. Trade-first leaves losses for later years and keeps Class 4 profits lower, but it does not always minimise the year's income tax and Class 4 together.
    • Losses brought forward (loss_relief, ITA 2007 s. 83) absorb the trade profit a smaller share leaves, but that uses up loss which would otherwise carry forward against later profits of the trade (s. 84). YAML Case 14 pins this: £3,606 against £3,486 under the £200/£800 split, which would use £600 of the loss.
    • Pension contributions above relevant UK earnings (FA 2004 s. 189) get more relief when the trade keeps more profit, because trade profit counts towards those earnings and miscellaneous income does not. YAML Case 15 pins this: trade-first gives relief on £19,000 of £20,000 contributions, £3,486 income tax and £385.80 Class 4. Giving the casual income the whole allowance would give £20,000, £3,286 and £445.80 under the same rules.
  • With unknown gross receipts, a profit within the allowance is taken as that many receipts. A larger profit takes the whole allowance, as the trade logic already assumes.
  • Ordinary treatment is an election out of full relief (s. 783AL), or no election for partial relief (s. 783AM). It is taken when a raw current trading loss exceeds the saving from both reliefs, and it drops both together.
• New variables:
  • miscellaneous_income_trading_allowance_deduction;
  • miscellaneous_income_before_trading_allowance (the old taxable_miscellaneous_income formula, max_(0, miscellaneous_income));
  • uses_trading_allowance, true when either relief applies.
• taxable_miscellaneous_income is now the before-allowance figure less the deduction.

Means tests read income before the allowance. Benefits read raw self_employment_income, not profit after the trading allowance. To match, every means-test and gross-income reader of miscellaneous income now uses miscellaneous_income_before_trading_allowance:

• UC earned income (uc_individual_earned_income_before_mif);
• HB net earnings;
• the HB and CTR non-dependant gross income;
• gross_taxable_inputs;
• the Welsh childcare offer's gross income sources.

Tax-side readers stay on taxable_miscellaneous_income: adjusted net income, the UC income tax deduction, the CPS marriage tax reform and the property allowance check.

"Allowance chosen" now means either relief. Three places treated trading_allowance_deduction > 0 as "the allowance was used": the trading loss in annual_allowance_net_income (utils/pensions.py), trade_loss_relief_against_general_income, and ni_class_4_trading_loss. With relief on Chapter 8 income alone, that would let the s. 783AF nil trade loss be claimed as well. All three now read uses_trading_allowance. YAML Cases 10 and 11 cover both directions: a £5,000 loss is claimed and the casual income is taxed, while a £500 loss gives way to full relief on £800 of casual income.

Not modelled (stated in the helper's docstring):

• the exclusions in ss. 783AN–783AQ (rent-a-room receipts, and income including a payment from the person's employer, firm or close company);
• expenses against Chapter 8 income;
• a loss created by capital allowances, which the model never sets against other income.

Assumption with unknown receipts. Without self_employment_gross_receipts, a trade's receipts are taken as the lowest its profit allows: the profit when that is within the allowance, and nil when the trade made a loss or no profit. This is the reading the trade-side logic already uses, and it is the generous one. The helper and the income_not_otherwise_charged docs both state it. So a loss-making trade with unknown receipts leaves the whole allowance to Chapter 8 income. Where actual receipts would push relevant income above the allowance, the model can over-relieve. With receipts supplied, the statutory differential test covers it exactly.

Invariants

Each one holds for every input. Each is tested by Hypothesis over many generated cases in one reusable simulation.

Energy Bills Rebate (tests/test_energy_bills_rebate_hbai_properties.py, 16 households across bands, nations, pay, UC claims and EBSS months, 2021–2024):

1. HBAI income before the zero reset rises by exactly hbai_energy_bills_rebate, in every year, nation and band. (test_hbai_income_rises_by_exactly_the_rebate)
2. hbai_benefits does not change with the rebate, because it is miscellaneous income. (same test)
3. The Council Tax Rebate is paid once: £150 in 2022, bands A–D only, nothing in any other year from 2015 to 2030, and £150 at most in total. (test_the_council_tax_rebate_is_paid_once)
4. HBAI counts the credit by financial year. In 2022 it equals the household's eligible months of the October 2022 to March 2023 schedule (Northern Ireland: the January 2023 payment), written out in the test rather than read from parameters. In every other year it is nil. (test_hbai_counts_the_credit_by_financial_year)
5. Financial and calendar years count the same payments: over 2021–2024, hbai_energy_bills_rebate and energy_bills_rebate add up to the same total. (test_financial_and_calendar_years_count_the_same_payments)
6. HBAI adds hbai_energy_bills_rebate once, and neither energy_bills_rebate nor its parts, and neither it nor the Warm Home Discount is in hbai_benefits. (test_the_rebate_is_counted_once_and_not_as_state_support)

Trading allowance (tests/test_trading_allowance_miscellaneous_income_properties.py, 24 drawn cases × 3 copies: drawn Chapter 8 share, none, all; each with and without the trade; the allowance is read from parameters, so the tests carry over to #2719's £3,000):

1. Differential against a statutory reference, with trade losses brought forward and negative profits drawn. Applies whenever trade receipts are known (or the trade has a loss or no profit, so is taken to have none) and there is no current loss. (test_taxable_income_matches_statutory_reference)
   • Taxable trade plus miscellaneous income equals the lower of ordinary treatment and the allowance under the model's trade-first split.
   • It is never below the lowest figure any split under s. 783AK(2)–(5) gives.
   • It equals that lowest figure when no losses are brought forward.
2. One allowance covers both: the two deductions together never exceed it. (test_one_allowance_covers_both)
3. Bounds: the miscellaneous deduction is between 0 and the eligible Chapter 8 income, and taxable miscellaneous income is between 0 and positive miscellaneous income. (test_deduction_and_taxable_income_are_bounded)
4. Without a current loss, trade relief does not depend on Chapter 8 income. (test_trade_relief_does_not_depend_on_chapter_8_income)
5. With no Chapter 8 income, every output equals the trade-only result. (test_no_chapter_8_income_changes_nothing)
6. Means tests read the income before the allowance. (test_means_tests_read_income_before_the_allowance)
7. Monotonicity: with miscellaneous income fixed and no current loss, income tax never rises as more of it is Chapter 8 income. (test_income_tax_never_rises_with_more_chapter_8_income)
8. Parity: without pension contributions, Chapter 8 income is taxed like the same trade receipts with no expenses. (test_chapter_8_income_is_taxed_like_trade_receipts)
9. A current loss is never both claimed and given up, and a loss above anything the allowance could save is always claimed. The test also checks that uses_trading_allowance matches the deductions, which only restates its formula. (test_a_current_loss_is_never_both_claimed_and_given_up)

Mutation check. Each mutant was applied to the helper or flag, then the property tests and YAML were run.

Mutant	Property tests that fail (of 9)	Cases that fail in the new YAML file (of 13)
M1: no relief on Chapter 8 income	2 (statutory differential, trade parity)	7
M2: a separate allowance for Chapter 8 income	2 (statutory differential, one allowance)	3
M3: uses_trading_allowance reads the trade relief only	1 (the loss election)	2
M4: all miscellaneous income is eligible, not only Chapter 8	3 (statutory differential, bounds, no Chapter 8 changes nothing)	1
M5: the loss-aware split (review r1's suggestion), moving allowance that brought-forward losses absorb to Chapter 8 income	1 (statutory differential: it no longer matches the trade-first split)	1 (of 14)
M6: hbai_energy_bills_rebate sums calendar months, not financial-year months	1 of the 5 rebate property tests (financial-year schedule)	5 of 7 in energy_bills_rebate.yaml

M3 at first got past every property test, because the loss test read the flag it was meant to check. The test now works out "allowance used" from the two deductions.

Independent review

Round 1 was dispatched as subfleet run --task review --tier hard, at bd9cca3. No Codex lane was open, so Subfleet served it on Opus 5.5. Verdict: CHANGES REQUESTED, with 1 major, 2 minor and 2 nit findings. The report is in ~/reviews/pe-uk-2726/review-r1.md. Each finding is addressed in 729062e:

1. Major: trade-first split with losses brought forward. The reviewer's counterexample is right that the Act allows a split charging £120 less this year. That split uses £600 of loss that would otherwise carry forward under ITA 2007 ss. 83–84, and it raises Class 4 profits, so the model keeps trade-first.
   • The helper's docstring no longer claims every split charges the same tax.
   • YAML Case 14 pins the split.
   • The property tests now assert that the model never undercuts the Act's lowest split, and equals it without losses brought forward.
2. Minor: unknown receipts on a loss-making trade. The model keeps the zero-receipts reading, which is consistent with the trade side. It is now documented in the helper and in income_not_otherwise_charged, and Case 11's comment states it.
3. Minor: test coverage. The strategies now draw loss_relief and negative profits. The reference minimises over the feasible splits, and M5 shows it pins the documented split.
4. Nit: s. 783AL wording. The docs now cover both the election out of full relief (s. 783AL) and the absence of a partial-relief election (s. 783AM).
5. Nit: the flag assertion. It is kept, and invariant 9 no longer counts it as evidence.

Round 2 ran on GPT-6.1 Sol (pinned to a Codex lane) at 729062e. Verdict: CHANGES REQUESTED, with 1 major and 2 minor findings; report in ~/reviews/pe-uk-2726/review-r2.md. It recommended keeping trade-first as the documented convention. It confirmed the statutory reference's piecewise argument and found it non-vacuous: 31 strict gaps between the lowest split and trade-first among 1,050 applicable cases. It also found no change against main with Chapter 8 income at zero, over 40,000 formula cases. Each finding is addressed in 1077aa2:

1. Major: HBAI counted the EBSS by calendar year. It now counts it by financial year through hbai_energy_bills_rebate (see Fix 1, Timing). Cases 3–7 and rebate invariants 4 and 5 pin it.
2. Minor: the Welsh childcare offer's reviewed source set still named taxable_miscellaneous_income. It now names miscellaneous_income_before_trading_allowance. This was CI's only failure on 729062e.
3. Minor: the income-tax-neutrality claim. Pension relief also reads the trade's share. The helper docstring, the deduction's docs and invariant 8 now say so, and YAML Case 15 pins the trade-first result. Its figures were executed in the model.

Round 3, pinned to GPT-6.1 Sol, is pending on 1077aa2.

Test plan

• YAML tests with expected values from statute and guidance:
  • miscellaneous_income_trading_allowance_deduction.yaml: 15 cases, with tax worked from s. 783AD's £1,000, the £12,570 personal allowance, the 20% basic rate and the 6% Class 4 main rate.
  • energy_bills_rebate.yaml: Cases 3–7.
  • council_tax_rebate.yaml: 2021, 2022 and 2023.
• Hypothesis property tests above, with pytest -n 4.
• Related YAML directories, single-process: 3,627 passed. They cover income tax, NI, pensions, student loans, treasury, household, finance, UC, tax credits, Pension Credit, Welsh Government, local authorities, Ofgem, gov spending and parametric reforms. The Budget-night capacity reservation ruled out a full local suite, so CI runs that.
• tests/code_health, test_uprating_inputs_reach_data.py and test_projection_horizon.py with -n 2: 3,027 passed.
• After review r2, with -n 4:
  • the rebate property tests, the Welsh childcare income sources test, and the code-health income-list, aggregation-list and uprating tests: 107 passed;
  • the HBAI-adjacent tests (winter heating and carers' disable-simulated-benefits, PAWHP household income, HBAI negative income): 42 passed;
  • the treasury and trading allowance YAML: 46 passed.
• make format
• Changelog fragments changelog.d/2724.fixed.md and changelog.d/2725.fixed.md

Aggregate impact

Pending CI's Aggregate impact job. Expected zero over 2025-26 to 2031-32: the rebates are nil after 2023-24, and income_not_otherwise_charged defaults to zero, so taxable_miscellaneous_income, every means-test reader and the loss sites compute what they did before.

Overlaps with open PRs

• Autumn Budget 2026 measures in current law #2719 (Budget 2026 baseline).
  • It adds household_energy_payment to the same HBAI list, right after warm_home_discount, and inserts a docs section after the CTR parameter line this PR rewrites. Both are textual conflicts that keep both sides.
  • Its new comment in trading_allowance.yaml says the s. 783AD amount "also relieves miscellaneous income (s. 783B); the model applies it to trading income". Once this PR lands, the model applies it to both. The section is s. 783AB; s. 783B starts Chapter 2, the property allowance. Whichever lands second should fix that comment.
  • Its £3,000 allowance from 2027 flows through this PR's helper unchanged.
• Carry unused Income Tax trading losses forward once #2661 (trading losses carried forward). It touches utils/pensions.py and trade_loss_relief_against_general_income.py, where this PR changes one line each (trading_allowance_deduction > 0 becomes uses_trading_allowance). Any new "allowance chosen" test there should read the flag.
• Model rent from boarders, lodgers and sub-tenants for the householder #2002 (rent from boarders). It also edits the HBAI list.

Follow-ups (not in this PR)

• policyengine-uk-data: fill in income_not_otherwise_charged from the FRS odd-jobs and casual-income fields, and keep it at zero for SPI income that is already net of the allowance. Until then the relief has no aggregate effect.
• Outside HBAI, household_net_income and gov_spending keep Correct Energy Bills Support Scheme amounts and timing #2103's calendar-year sum of the EBSS. Whether they should follow the financial year too is a separate methodology question.
• Northern Ireland: the model pays the £150 CTR by band, but NI has domestic rates, not council tax. NI's £200 Alternative Fuel Payment is not modelled.

Reproducer: policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/gov/treasury/energy_bills_rebate/energy_bills_rebate.yaml; policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/gov/treasury/energy_bills_rebate/council_tax_rebate.yaml; policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/gov/hmrc/income_tax/allowances/miscellaneous_income_trading_allowance_deduction.yaml; policyengine_uk/tests/test_trading_allowance_miscellaneous_income_properties.py::test_taxable_income_matches_statutory_reference; policyengine_uk/tests/test_energy_bills_rebate_hbai_properties.py::test_hbai_counts_the_credit_by_financial_year

axiom: TheAxiomFoundation/rulespec-uk#348 queued

The axiom line covers the trading allowance. The spec for its miscellaneous-income half is in this comment, and the encoder is blocked because the corpus lacks ss. 783AA–783AR. The Energy Bills Rebate half is n/a: HBAI income is DWP's statistical definition (microsimulation-only), and the 2022-23 Council Tax Rebate was a grant scheme set by billing-authority guidance, with no rulespec-uk module.

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

[github-actions]

Aggregate impact on certified data: pass

Base b090ec6277 against head 5b057b9327, both on enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5 (policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1, sha256 056e80fd8e91), fiscal years 2025-26 to 2031-32. Each year is a full microsimulation run on each side.

Checks: 0 broken by this change, 1 failing on both sides, 0 fixed. Moves flagged for review: 0 (thresholds in report_spec.yaml; a flag does not fail the job).

Workflow run and full report

Notes

• In the years a figure from fewer than 10 records is suppressed (spending.disabled_students_allowance), every total containing it, and the decile incomes, are rebuilt from their other components, so no published total includes it. Those totals are marked †. A change is withheld where the two sides leave out different figures and can't be lined up.

Moves flagged for review

None.

Spending by benefit and service

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed

Caseloads

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed

Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance)

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise additional rate by 3pp	0	0	0	0	0	suppressed	suppressed

Standard reforms: change in each reform's target

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax	0	0	0	0	0	suppressed	suppressed

Household net income by decile

No household's net income changes in any year.

No change in any year: receipts by tax head; government balance, each component counted once; model totals; household income totals; population; poverty rates; people in poverty; inequality; mean household net income in each side's own deciles.

Checks failing on both base and head (1)

• VAT excluding private school fees is never negative (sign:vat): 2025-26: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-53,889,156 in total; 2026-27: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-55,420,387 in total; 2027-28: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-56,618,038 in total

Counted-once check

Each of 91 components was raised by £1 per unit in 2026-27, and every head of its totals was read household by household: its own head must rise by exactly £1, no other tax head may move, no other benefit may rise, and the model's own total must move by what its heads moved. A head that breaks a rule is measured again twice: with every other head held at its baseline value, and with every other head held at its value after the first £1 while the component rises again. It fails where either still shows the response. 0 failed; 0 were skipped.

• widowed_parents_allowance: pension_credit responds only through other heads in fewer than 10 households (other heads that moved there: carers_allowance; gov_spending; not a failure)
• widowed_parents_allowance: pension_credit responds only through other heads in fewer than 10 households (other heads that moved there: carers_allowance; household_benefits; not a failure)

Provenance

Side	Commit	Runtime	Environment hash	Partition hash	Time
base	main b090ec6277	uk 2.163.2 (files 361d4f9ceaf6), core 3.33.12, py 3.13.18 aarch64	b0a4790c3b8d	1eac2ca06b91	1908.96s
head	#2726 merged into main 5b057b9327	uk 2.163.2 (files 6e1f2903c2f9), core 3.33.12, py 3.13.18 aarch64	b0a4790c3b8d	1eac2ca06b91	1900.36s

Dataset: hf://policyengine/policyengine-uk-data-private/enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5@2526edbbb687a3b54dbb11272e5389e4b62d2ac2, sha256 056e80fd8e9151d78f432a25cde863340baee81304c6216a37fb575ce8563784 (verified on both sides), policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1.

Receipts by tax head: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Final charge on cash interest in non-cash ISAs	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Lifetime ISA withdrawal charge	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Income tax	£298.70bn	£318.31bn	£335.60bn	£350.52bn	£365.79bn	£383.53bn	£401.03bn
National Insurance (employee and self-employed)	£52.37bn	£54.71bn	£56.48bn	£58.15bn	£60.22bn	£62.11bn	£64.44bn
National Insurance (employer)	£150.59bn	£156.99bn	£161.74bn	£166.13bn	£173.24bn	£178.59bn	£185.29bn
Employer NI change borne by capital	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Employer NI change borne by consumers	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Capital gains tax	£12.61bn	£13.05bn	£13.53bn	£14.02bn	£14.52bn	£15.05bn	£15.58bn
Student loan repayments	£7.91bn	£8.21bn	£8.43bn	£8.63bn	£8.85bn	£9.10bn	£9.42bn
VAT excluding private school fees	£249.37bn	£255.28bn	£261.81bn	£267.87bn	£274.12bn	£280.56bn	£286.81bn
Change in VAT from its baseline	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
VAT on private school fees	£1.95bn	£2.00bn	£2.05bn	£2.10bn	£2.21bn	£2.21bn	£2.31bn
Change in private school VAT from its baseline	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Fuel duties	£24.53bn	£24.64bn	£26.64bn	£26.69bn	£26.42bn	£25.76bn	£26.35bn
Alcohol duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Tobacco duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Vehicle excise duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Betting and gaming duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
TV licence fee	£4.26bn	£4.41bn	£4.42bn	£4.44bn	£4.45bn	£4.47bn	£4.48bn
Council tax	£49.21bn	£51.88bn	£54.97bn	£58.29bn	£61.55bn	£64.92bn	£68.49bn
High value council tax surcharge	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.48bn	£0.49bn	£0.50bn	£0.51bn
Northern Ireland domestic rates	£0.55bn	£0.58bn	£0.60bn	£0.63bn	£0.66bn	£0.69bn	£0.72bn
Business rates	£34.68bn	£38.04bn	£38.88bn	£39.76bn	£43.07bn	£43.13bn	£44.57bn
Stamp duty land tax on the household's own purchases	£6.90bn	£7.39bn	£7.81bn	£8.21bn	£8.62bn	£9.02bn	£9.42bn
Stamp duty land tax paid by companies	£4.81bn	£5.98bn	£6.73bn	£7.46bn	£8.21bn	£8.87bn	£9.16bn
Land transaction tax (Wales)	£0.07bn	£0.08bn	£0.09bn	£0.09bn	£0.10bn	£0.10bn	£0.11bn
Land and buildings transaction tax (Scotland)	£0.31bn	£0.32bn	£0.34bn	£0.35bn	£0.37bn	£0.38bn	£0.40bn
Unspecified tax change borne by capital	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Unspecified tax change borne by consumers	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Wealth tax	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Wealth tax excluding the main residence	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Land value tax	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Carbon tax	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn

Spending by benefit and service: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Lifetime ISA bonus	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
State Pension	£121.64bn	£126.07bn	£127.08bn	£128.87bn	£132.52bn	£136.31bn	£140.08bn
Pension Credit	£6.66bn	£7.04bn	£7.32bn	£7.46bn	£7.60bn	£7.77bn	£7.94bn
Winter Fuel Payment	£1.86bn	£1.86bn	£1.80bn	£1.78bn	£1.79bn	£1.79bn	£1.80bn
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland)	£0.19bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.21bn	£0.21bn	£0.22bn	£0.22bn
Universal Credit	£75.21bn	£80.38bn	£82.93bn	£84.23bn	£85.58bn	£86.87bn	£87.97bn
Housing Benefit	£8.55bn	£8.89bn	£9.17bn	£9.31bn	£9.58bn	£9.84bn	£10.10bn
Council Tax Reduction	£2.07bn	£2.18bn	£2.32bn	£2.46bn	£2.60bn	£2.74bn	£2.89bn
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related)	£0.79bn	£0.81bn	£0.83bn	£0.85bn	£0.86bn	£0.89bn	£0.90bn
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based)	£5.20bn	£5.34bn	£5.46bn	£5.59bn	£5.72bn	£5.85bn	£5.99bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based)	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based)	£0.29bn	£0.30bn	£0.30bn	£0.31bn	£0.32bn	£0.32bn	£0.33bn
Income Support	£0.11bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Working Tax Credit	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Child Tax Credit	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Incapacity Benefit	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Personal Independence Payment	£26.94bn	£28.06bn	£29.13bn	£29.83bn	£30.54bn	£31.26bn	£31.96bn
Disability Living Allowance	£7.49bn	£7.80bn	£8.10bn	£8.29bn	£8.49bn	£8.69bn	£8.88bn
Attendance Allowance	£8.68bn	£9.04bn	£9.38bn	£9.61bn	£9.83bn	£10.07bn	£10.29bn
Carer's Allowance	£4.48bn	£4.67bn	£4.84bn	£4.96bn	£5.08bn	£5.19bn	£5.31bn
Carer Support Payment (Scotland)	£0.31bn	£0.32bn	£0.33bn	£0.34bn	£0.35bn	£0.36bn	£0.37bn
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland)	£0.00bn	£0.04bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn
Severe Disablement Allowance	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit	£0.50bn	£0.52bn	£0.53bn	£0.54bn	£0.55bn	£0.57bn	£0.58bn
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme	£0.61bn	£0.62bn	£0.64bn	£0.65bn	£0.67bn	£0.68bn	£0.70bn
War Widow's or Widower's Pension	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Child Benefit	£16.16bn	£16.83bn	£17.43bn	£17.85bn	£18.26bn	£18.69bn	£19.10bn
Scottish Child Payment	£0.49bn	£0.52bn	£0.54bn	£0.55bn	£0.56bn	£0.57bn	£0.56bn
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual)	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Healthy Start vouchers	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn
Maternity Allowance	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Statutory Maternity Pay	£3.30bn	£3.39bn	£3.47bn	£3.55bn	£3.63bn	£3.72bn	£3.80bn
Statutory Paternity Pay	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Statutory Sick Pay	£1.12bn	£1.15bn	£1.18bn	£1.21bn	£1.24bn	£1.27bn	£1.29bn
Sure Start Maternity Grant	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn
Bereavement Support Payment	£0.67bn	£0.69bn	£0.70bn	£0.72bn	£0.73bn	£0.75bn	£0.77bn
Widowed Parent's Allowance	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Tax-Free Childcare	£0.55bn	£0.56bn	£0.57bn	£0.58bn	£0.59bn	£0.61bn	£0.59bn
Extended childcare entitlement	£2.99bn	£3.50bn	£3.60bn	£3.67bn	£3.77bn	£3.85bn	£3.94bn
Universal childcare entitlement	£2.05bn	£2.23bn	£2.28bn	£2.34bn	£2.40bn	£2.47bn	£2.52bn
Targeted childcare entitlement	£0.50bn	£0.51bn	£0.52bn	£0.53bn	£0.54bn	£0.56bn	£0.52bn
Childcare Offer for Wales	£0.26bn	£0.28bn	£0.28bn	£0.29bn	£0.30bn	£0.30bn	£0.31bn
Care to Learn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Childcare Grant	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Parents' Learning Allowance	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn
Adult Dependants' Grant	£0.06bn	£0.06bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn
Travel Grant	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
NHS spending	£203.83bn	£204.54bn	£205.13bn	£205.79bn	£206.49bn	£207.23bn	£207.73bn
State education spending	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn
Transport subsidy spending	£25.05bn	£25.13bn	£25.21bn	£25.29bn	£25.37bn	£25.46bn	£25.53bn
Cost-of-living support payment	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Energy Bills Rebate	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Basic income	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Disability basic income	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Other public spending budget change	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn

Caseloads: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Lifetime ISA bonus	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
State Pension	11,261k	11,158k	10,849k	10,746k	10,783k	10,822k	10,848k
Pension Credit	1,485k	1,483k	1,480k	1,461k	1,462k	1,464k	1,460k
Winter Fuel Payment	7,842k	7,793k	7,494k	7,407k	7,432k	7,459k	7,477k
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland)	803k	803k	803k	800k	803k	806k	808k
Universal Credit	6,334k	6,341k	6,366k	6,347k	6,345k	6,333k	6,298k
Housing Benefit	1,249k	1,247k	1,250k	1,234k	1,238k	1,240k	1,239k
Council Tax Reduction	3,175k	3,198k	3,209k	3,229k	3,244k	3,257k	3,264k
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related)	71k	71k	71k	71k	71k	72k	72k
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based)	719k	721k	723k	726k	728k	731k	732k
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based)	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based)	67k	67k	67k	68k	68k	68k	68k
Income Support	25k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Working Tax Credit	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Child Tax Credit	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Incapacity Benefit	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Personal Independence Payment	3,566k	3,579k	3,589k	3,601k	3,613k	3,626k	3,635k
Disability Living Allowance	1,291k	1,295k	1,299k	1,303k	1,308k	1,312k	1,316k
Attendance Allowance	1,694k	1,700k	1,705k	1,711k	1,716k	1,723k	1,727k
Carer's Allowance	1,034k	1,038k	1,041k	1,044k	1,048k	1,051k	1,053k
Carer Support Payment (Scotland)	71k	71k	72k	72k	72k	72k	73k
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland)	0k	71k	72k	72k	72k	72k	73k
Severe Disablement Allowance	4k	4k	4k	4k	4k	4k	4k
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit	137k	137k	138k	138k	139k	139k	140k
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme	93k	93k	94k	94k	94k	95k	95k
War Widow's or Widower's Pension	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Child Benefit	8,102k	8,128k	8,142k	8,165k	8,191k	8,216k	8,232k
Scottish Child Payment	350k	352k	353k	357k	354k	355k	342k
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual)	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Healthy Start vouchers	199k	200k	201k	201k	202k	203k	203k
Maternity Allowance	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Statutory Maternity Pay	332k	334k	335k	336k	337k	338k	339k
Statutory Paternity Pay	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Statutory Sick Pay	181k	182k	182k	183k	183k	184k	185k
Sure Start Maternity Grant	26k	26k	26k	26k	26k	27k	27k
Bereavement Support Payment	98k	98k	98k	99k	99k	99k	100k
Widowed Parent's Allowance	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Tax-Free Childcare	1,014k	1,024k	1,024k	1,027k	1,027k	1,031k	1,013k
Extended childcare entitlement	796k	801k	806k	809k	815k	819k	820k
Universal childcare entitlement	1,071k	1,074k	1,077k	1,080k	1,086k	1,096k	1,097k
Targeted childcare entitlement	165k	156k	154k	155k	155k	156k	144k
Childcare Offer for Wales	39k	39k	39k	39k	39k	39k	39k
Care to Learn	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Childcare Grant	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Parents' Learning Allowance	98k	98k	99k	99k	99k	100k	100k
Adult Dependants' Grant	18k	18k	12k	12k	12k	13k	13k
Travel Grant	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Cost-of-living support payment	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Energy Bills Rebate	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Basic income	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Disability basic income	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k

Government balance, each component counted once: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Government receipts, each component once	£898.82bn	£941.86bn	£980.11bn	£1,013.84bn	£1,052.89bn	£1,089.01bn	£1,129.10bn
Government spending	£528.95bn †	£543.83bn †	£551.68bn †	£558.06bn †	£566.57bn †	£575.31bn †	£583.38bn †
Government balance, each receipt once	£369.87bn †	£398.03bn †	£428.43bn †	£455.77bn †	£486.32bn †	£513.70bn †	£545.72bn †
Benefits in household_benefits but not in gov_spending	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn

Model totals: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
gov_tax	£898.82bn	£941.86bn	£980.11bn	£1,013.84bn	£1,052.89bn	£1,089.01bn	£1,129.10bn
household_tax	£496.91bn	£527.60bn	£554.51bn	£577.74bn	£603.32bn	£627.65bn	£654.69bn
pre_budget_change_household_tax	£489.00bn	£519.39bn	£546.08bn	£568.63bn	£593.98bn	£618.05bn	£644.75bn
gov_spending	£528.95bn †	£543.83bn †	£551.68bn †	£558.06bn †	£566.57bn †	£575.31bn †	£583.38bn †
household_benefits	£528.95bn †	£543.83bn †	£551.68bn †	£558.06bn †	£566.57bn †	£575.31bn †	£583.38bn †
gov_balance	£369.87bn †	£398.03bn †	£428.43bn †	£455.77bn †	£486.32bn †	£513.70bn †	£545.72bn †

Household income totals: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Household market income	£1,651.49bn	£1,713.03bn	£1,764.05bn	£1,812.97bn	£1,862.19bn	£1,918.39bn	£1,985.28bn
Household net income	£1,644.42bn †	£1,688.69bn †	£1,719.55bn †	£1,750.62bn †	£1,781.68bn †	£1,821.07bn †	£1,867.39bn †
Household net income (HBAI definition)	£1,457.29bn	£1,504.48bn	£1,537.58bn	£1,569.36bn	£1,602.67bn	£1,640.49bn	£1,687.04bn

Population: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
People	69,224k	69,466k	69,668k	69,891k	70,128k	70,381k	70,550k
Benefit units	35,100k	35,223k	35,325k	35,438k	35,558k	35,686k	35,772k
Households	31,037k	31,145k	31,236k	31,336k	31,442k	31,555k	31,631k

Poverty rates: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone	16.0%	15.1%	15.4%	15.5%	15.6%	15.7%	15.7%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children	24.0%	21.1%	21.3%	21.3%	21.5%	21.8%	21.8%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	13.8%	13.5%	13.9%	14.1%	14.1%	14.2%	14.2%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	13.7%	13.2%	13.1%	13.4%	13.5%	13.5%	13.5%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone	21.4%	20.8%	21.3%	21.5%	21.7%	21.9%	22.2%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children	33.0%	30.7%	31.1%	31.1%	31.4%	31.7%	32.3%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	19.8%	19.6%	20.2%	20.5%	20.7%	20.8%	21.1%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	12.7%	12.4%	12.3%	12.5%	12.8%	12.9%	13.0%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone	17.2%	16.4%	16.5%	16.4%	16.2%	16.3%	16.5%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children	26.2%	23.5%	23.4%	23.1%	22.6%	22.8%	23.1%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	14.6%	14.4%	14.7%	14.7%	14.6%	14.7%	14.8%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	15.0%	14.8%	14.1%	14.1%	14.0%	14.0%	14.2%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone	21.6%	21.0%	21.1%	21.2%	21.3%	21.4%	21.8%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children	33.3%	31.2%	30.8%	30.7%	31.0%	31.0%	31.5%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	19.9%	19.8%	20.1%	20.3%	20.4%	20.5%	20.7%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	12.9%	12.5%	12.1%	11.9%	11.8%	11.9%	12.8%

People in poverty: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone	11,057k	10,466k	10,734k	10,860k	10,960k	11,054k	11,081k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children	3,580k	3,171k	3,210k	3,220k	3,261k	3,305k	3,317k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	5,853k	5,746k	6,021k	6,123k	6,169k	6,209k	6,219k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	1,625k	1,550k	1,504k	1,517k	1,530k	1,539k	1,545k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone	14,847k	14,422k	14,808k	14,994k	15,242k	15,402k	15,638k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children	4,937k	4,609k	4,671k	4,685k	4,757k	4,814k	4,912k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	8,406k	8,359k	8,732k	8,898k	9,024k	9,114k	9,240k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	1,504k	1,454k	1,404k	1,411k	1,460k	1,475k	1,486k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone	11,896k	11,403k	11,468k	11,487k	11,373k	11,468k	11,652k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children	3,918k	3,523k	3,519k	3,491k	3,419k	3,458k	3,516k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	6,202k	6,136k	6,338k	6,400k	6,366k	6,415k	6,515k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	1,776k	1,744k	1,611k	1,597k	1,588k	1,595k	1,621k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone	14,957k	14,597k	14,698k	14,825k	14,951k	15,042k	15,351k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children	4,976k	4,677k	4,630k	4,634k	4,690k	4,712k	4,794k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	8,443k	8,455k	8,680k	8,847k	8,916k	8,977k	9,092k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	1,537k	1,465k	1,388k	1,344k	1,346k	1,354k	1,464k

Inequality: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Gini coefficient, equivalised HBAI income before housing costs	0.3085	0.3059	0.3065	0.3071	0.3075	0.3081	0.3094

Mean household net income in each side's own deciles: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household	£17,781 †	£17,906 †	£17,832 †	£17,905 †	£18,142 †	£18,339 †	£18,483 †
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household	£27,962 †	£28,917 †	£28,654 †	£28,906 †	£29,096 †	£29,646 †	£30,235 †
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household	£34,380 †	£35,463 †	£36,065 †	£36,509 †	£36,850 †	£37,338 †	£38,043 †
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household	£38,785 †	£40,713 †	£41,873 †	£42,413 †	£43,145 †	£43,906 †	£44,167 †
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household	£43,788 †	£44,626 †	£45,606 †	£46,289 †	£47,328 †	£48,286 †	£49,711 †
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household	£48,210 †	£49,525 †	£50,736 †	£51,914 †	£52,203 †	£53,174 †	£54,203 †
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household	£56,218 †	£57,224 †	£57,764 †	£58,010 †	£59,040 †	£60,061 †	£61,765 †
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household	£69,150 †	£70,533 †	£71,800 †	£73,075 †	£74,092 †	£75,540 †	£77,427 †
Decile 9: mean household_net_income per household	£79,490 †	£81,421 †	£82,828 †	£84,135 †	£85,539 †	£87,053 †	£89,944 †
Decile 10: mean household_net_income per household	£117,581 †	£120,296 †	£121,933 †	£124,163 †	£126,045 †	£128,342 †	£131,110 †

Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance): head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp	£6.47bn	£6.76bn	£6.67bn	£6.86bn	£7.06bn	£7.35bn	£7.55bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp	£3.69bn	£3.98bn	£4.03bn	£4.29bn	£4.46bn	£4.78bn	£4.91bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year	£-3.82bn	£-3.94bn	£-4.01bn	£-4.09bn	£-4.18bn	£-4.18bn	£-2.00bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child	£-1.99bn	£-1.75bn	£-1.56bn	£-1.46bn	£-1.35bn	£-1.23bn	£-1.12bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%	£-20.39bn	£-20.96bn	£-21.38bn	£-21.61bn	£-21.87bn	£-22.17bn	£-22.60bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%	£11.02bn	£11.42bn	£11.77bn	£12.07bn	£12.37bn	£12.75bn	£13.07bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp	£24.89bn	£25.55bn	£26.14bn	£26.75bn	£27.39bn	£28.03bn	£28.66bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp	£2.96bn	£3.21bn	£3.26bn	£3.46bn	£3.65bn	suppressed	suppressed
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%	£-3.05bn	£-3.18bn	£-3.30bn	£-3.34bn	£-3.38bn	£-3.42bn	£-3.48bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%	£-7.79bn	£-8.02bn	£-8.01bn	£-8.12bn	£-8.43bn	£-8.54bn	£-8.87bn

Standard reforms: change in each reform's target: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp: change in income_tax	£6.61bn	£6.91bn	£6.83bn	£7.03bn	£7.24bn	£7.47bn	£7.73bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp: change in income_tax	£3.69bn	£3.99bn	£4.04bn	£4.25bn	£4.47bn	£4.74bn	£4.93bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year: change in income_tax	£-3.95bn	£-4.08bn	£-4.17bn	£-4.24bn	£-4.34bn	£-4.41bn	£-1.76bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child: change in child_benefit	£2.33bn	£2.14bn	£1.95bn	£1.84bn	£1.73bn	£1.62bn	£1.50bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%: change in universal_credit	£20.39bn	£20.95bn	£21.37bn	£21.62bn	£21.87bn	£22.22bn	£22.61bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%: change in national_insurance	£11.28bn	£11.74bn	£12.06bn	£12.37bn	£12.69bn	£13.03bn	£13.49bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp: change in vat	£24.69bn	£25.35bn	£25.94bn	£26.54bn	£27.17bn	£27.81bn	£28.43bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax	£2.96bn	£3.21bn	£3.26bn	£3.46bn	£3.66bn	suppressed	suppressed
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%: change in universal_credit	£3.05bn	£3.18bn	£3.29bn	£3.36bn	£3.43bn	£3.48bn	£3.52bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%: change in state_pension	£10.68bn	£11.18bn	£11.31bn	£11.55bn	£12.00bn	£12.44bn	£12.94bn