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Charge higher-stake machines at the Machine Games Duty higher rate from April 2027 - #2731

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Charge higher-stake machines at the Machine Games Duty higher rate from April 2027#2731
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@MaxGhenis MaxGhenis commented Oct 28, 2026 •
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Budget 2026 Table 6.1 line 56: Machine Games Duty on higher-stake machines from 1 April 2027. María asked for it on #2719 (comment) so Microcosm can score it (PolicyEngine/microcosm#1418). It stays separate from #2719, which carries the dashboard's other Table 6.1 items.

What and why

OOTLAR paragraph 1.50: "Under the revised thresholds, gaming machines with a maximum charge to play of more than £1 or a maximum prize of more than £100 will become subject to the higher rate of MGD at 25%, instead of the standard rate of 20%." It takes effect from 1 April 2027, through Finance Bill 2026-27. The policy costing (p. 67) uses the same thresholds and scores +£135m in 2027-28, then +£130m a year to 2031-32.

Today, FA 2012 Sch 24 para 5(3) makes every machine outside the lower-rate class with a highest charge of at most £5 a type 2 (standard-rate) machine. The old formula had no way to say that part of that base moves to 25%.

Changes:

  • New input machine_games_standard_rate_higher_stake_net_takings: the part of machine_games_standard_rate_net_takings from machines with a maximum charge to play above £1 or a maximum prize above £100. The class corresponds closely to the Gambling Commission's Category B (B1 £5; B2, B3 and B3A £2 and £500; B4 £2 and £400). Category C (£1 and £100) and D stay within the thresholds.
  • Dated switch gov.hmrc.gambling_duty.machine_games.higher_stake_machines_at_higher_rate: false, then true from 2027-04-01, with preserve_calendar_dates. It references OOTLAR 1.50, the costing page and Sch 24 paras 5 and 6. Set it to false for the counterfactual, or date it later to delay the change.
  • Formula. machine_games_duty charges the higher-stake part at the standard rate while the switch is off and at the higher rate while it is on. The rest of the standard-rate base stays at 20%.
  • fiscal_year_segments accepts a mapping of names to leaves as well as a node, so the switch and the three rates share one set of fiscal-year segments. Existing callers pass nodes and need no change.
  • Docs. A new "Higher-stake machines from 1 April 2027" section in docs/engineering/gambling-duties.md, and the standard rate's description.

Subset, not a separate amount

The new input is a subset of the standard-rate input:

  • Microcosm builds machine_games_standard_rate_net_takings from HMRC's standard-rate MGD liabilities and the 20% rate (hmrc.machine_games_duty_liabilities in packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/spec/sources.yaml; £3.02bn of takings in its uk-excise-quantities-1359 reconciliation). For periods before 1 April 2027 those liabilities include Category B, so the column keeps its meaning and its target, and Microcosm only adds the Category B share from the Gambling Commission's machine yield by category. A standard-rate input built from liabilities after that date must add the moved takings back. The docs show the arithmetic: £25 instead of £45 for £100 of each.
  • A separate amount would force every dataset to move Category B out of the standard-rate column. An engine without this PR, run on such a dataset, would then drop Category B's 20% duty in every year.
  • The duty floors the new input at zero and caps it at the standard-rate input, so it never taxes takings the standard-rate input leaves out. YAML cases 10 to 12 pin that down.

Periods

The model year runs from 6 April to 5 April (fiscal_year_segments). Model year 2026 therefore holds 1 to 5 April 2027 and charges the higher-stake part at 25% for 5 of its 365 days. Model year 2027 and later charge all of it at 25%. Paras 6(6) and 9(4) split a machine's takings the same way when its type or rate changes within an accounting period. The government's 2026-27 runs April to March, which is why the costing shows £0 for it.

Impact

Expected zero on current datasets: the input defaults to 0, and no released dataset supplies it yet. CI's aggregate-impact job will confirm. Microcosm will write the input (microcosm#1418), and the measure scores once that data lands.

The costing nets off behaviour: an elasticity of −0.95, a quarter of lost stakes moving to Remote Gaming Duty, attrition and lower Corporation Tax. This model applies the rates statically and reproduces none of those responses.

Invariants

These hold for every input and every model year 2024 to 2030. S is the standard-rate input, H the higher-stake input and f the share of the model year on or after 1 April 2027 (0 to FY2025, 5/365 in FY2026, 1 after).

  1. Closed form: duty = duty without the change + min(max(H, 0), max(S, 0)) × (25% − 20%) × f. The reference uses para 9's rates and its own date arithmetic, not fiscal_year_segments. This is a differential test against the code path.
  2. Zero takings in the class give the old duty, in every year.
  3. Before FY2026 the split of the standard-rate base doesn't change the duty.
  4. Monotonicity: moving takings into the class (raising H with S fixed) never lowers the duty, given a higher rate at least the standard rate, as in law.
  5. Bounds: old duty ≤ duty ≤ old duty + max(S, 0) × 5% × f, and duty ≥ 0.
  6. Counterfactual: switching the change off gives the old duty in every year.

Property tests cover all six with Hypothesis (derandomize=True, 25 examples each, within the engine's float32 rounding). One simulation per scenario serves every example, and a module fixture releases it.

Mutation check. Six formula mutants each fail both the property tests and the YAML: no cap, no floor, switch ignored, switch always on, takings added instead of moved, and the switch read once per fiscal year (30 April) instead of by day.

Test plan

  • YAML cases 6 to 13 in machine_games_duty.yaml: before (FY2025), the FY2026 split (£36,500 of standard-rate takings, £7,300 of them higher-stake: £7,305), after (FY2027, FY2029), the cap, no standard-rate base, a negative input, and all four bases through gambling_duty. The expected values come from Sch 24 para 9's rates and OOTLAR 1.50's date.
  • test_machine_games_higher_stake.py: the six invariants; the statutory rates and the switch date; an annual reform covering the whole of FY2026 (£9,125); a dated delay to 1 April 2028 leaving 5 of FY2027's 366 days (£7,345); and the mapping path of fiscal_year_segments, which splits at every leaf's dates and rejects nodes.
  • Local: gambling YAML (51 passed). The new tests, code_health, and the gambling, excise, TV licence, bus fare, parameter and fiscal-year tests ran at -n 4: 3,175 passed, 1 skipped (at e860bf1).
  • ruff format and ruff check.
  • Changelog fragment changelog.d/mgd-higher-stake-2027.added.md.

Review

  • r1 (GPT-6.1 Sol, job 20261028-181411-pe-uk-2731-r1, at e860bf1): APPROVE, with two minor findings and one nit. All three are fixed in 9292e25:
    • the threshold wording now requires both "at most £1" and "at most £100";
    • the claim about HMRC liabilities now covers only periods before 1 April 2027;
    • the switch's label is in sentence case.
  • r2 (delta, job 20261028-192612-pe-uk-2731-r2, at 9292e25): pending.
  • Gambling bases aren't uprated (María, below). That goes to a follow-up stacked on Update the economic assumptions to the October 2026 EFO #2717.

Not for merge while Budget week's merge rules apply (until after 29 October).

Reproducer: policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/gov/hmrc/gambling_duty/machine_games_duty.yaml; policyengine_uk/tests/test_machine_games_higher_stake.py::test_duty_matches_the_closed_form

axiom: rulespec-uk#488 queued (Budget 2026 extension in this comment; blocked on the Finance Bill 2026-27 text and on ingesting FA 2012 Sch 24 into the corpus)

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

@MaxGhenis @claude
Charge higher-stake standard-rate machines at 25% from 1 April 2027
e1ae3d0 
Budget 2026 (OOTLAR para 1.50) moves machines with a maximum charge to
play above £1 or a maximum prize above £100 from the standard rate of
Machine Games Duty to the higher rate. Add the input for that part of the
standard-rate base, a dated parameter for the reclassification, and let
fiscal_year_segments segment leaves from several nodes jointly so the
switch and the rates share one set of fiscal-year segments.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
This was referenced Oct 28, 2026
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Open
@juaristi22 juaristi22 mentioned this pull request Oct 28, 2026
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@MaxGhenis @claude
Test and document the higher-stake Machine Games Duty change
e860bf1 
YAML cases for the years before, the FY2026 split (5 of 365 days at 25%)
and after, the cap at the standard-rate base, and the totals. Hypothesis
property tests check the closed form against para 9's rates and an
independent day count, monotonicity, bounds and the counterfactual
switch; annual and dated reforms of the switch; and the mapping path of
fiscal_year_segments. Document why the input is a subset of the
standard-rate input, the period split and the costing's behavioural
netting the model leaves out.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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github-actions Bot commented Oct 28, 2026 •
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Aggregate impact on certified data: pass

Base 2475bf58a8 against head 704b9a1fa6, both on enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5 (policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1, sha256 056e80fd8e91), fiscal years 2025-26 to 2031-32. Each year is a full microsimulation run on each side.

Checks: 0 broken by this change, 1 failing on both sides, 0 fixed. Moves flagged for review: 0 (thresholds in report_spec.yaml; a flag does not fail the job).

Workflow run and full report

Notes

  • In the years a figure from fewer than 10 records is suppressed (spending.disabled_students_allowance), every total containing it, and the decile incomes, are rebuilt from their other components, so no published total includes it. Those totals are marked †. A change is withheld where the two sides leave out different figures and can't be lined up.

Moves flagged for review

None.

Spending by benefit and service

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed

Caseloads

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed

Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance)

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise additional rate by 3pp 0 0 0 0 0 suppressed suppressed

Standard reforms: change in each reform's target

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax 0 0 0 0 0 suppressed suppressed

Household net income by decile

No household's net income changes in any year.

No change in any year: receipts by tax head; government balance, each component counted once; model totals; household income totals; population; poverty rates; people in poverty; inequality; mean household net income in each side's own deciles.

Checks failing on both base and head (1)
  • VAT excluding private school fees is never negative (sign:vat): 2025-26: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-53,889,156 in total; 2026-27: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-55,420,387 in total; 2027-28: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-56,618,038 in total
Counted-once check

Each of 91 components was raised by £1 per unit in 2026-27, and every head of its totals was read household by household: its own head must rise by exactly £1, no other tax head may move, no other benefit may rise, and the model's own total must move by what its heads moved. A head that breaks a rule is measured again twice: with every other head held at its baseline value, and with every other head held at its value after the first £1 while the component rises again. It fails where either still shows the response. 0 failed; 0 were skipped.

  • widowed_parents_allowance: pension_credit responds only through other heads in fewer than 10 households (other heads that moved there: carers_allowance; gov_spending; not a failure)
  • widowed_parents_allowance: pension_credit responds only through other heads in fewer than 10 households (other heads that moved there: carers_allowance; household_benefits; not a failure)
Provenance
Side Commit Runtime Environment hash Partition hash Time
base main 2475bf58a8 uk 2.164.0 (files 6e91d97dc6a2), core 3.33.12, py 3.13.18 aarch64 8eafc5aaa169 1eac2ca06b91 1948.89s
head #2731 merged into main 704b9a1fa6 uk 2.164.0 (files d6d0b2778fab), core 3.33.12, py 3.13.18 aarch64 8eafc5aaa169 1eac2ca06b91 1849.12s

Dataset: hf://policyengine/policyengine-uk-data-private/enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5@2526edbbb687a3b54dbb11272e5389e4b62d2ac2, sha256 056e80fd8e9151d78f432a25cde863340baee81304c6216a37fb575ce8563784 (verified on both sides), policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1.

Receipts by tax head: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Final charge on cash interest in non-cash ISAs £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Lifetime ISA withdrawal charge £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Income tax £298.70bn £318.31bn £335.60bn £350.52bn £365.79bn £383.53bn £401.03bn
National Insurance (employee and self-employed) £52.37bn £54.71bn £56.48bn £58.15bn £60.22bn £62.11bn £64.44bn
National Insurance (employer) £150.59bn £156.99bn £161.74bn £166.13bn £173.24bn £178.59bn £185.29bn
Employer NI change borne by capital £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Employer NI change borne by consumers £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Capital gains tax £12.61bn £13.05bn £13.53bn £14.02bn £14.52bn £15.05bn £15.58bn
Student loan repayments £7.91bn £8.21bn £8.43bn £8.63bn £8.85bn £9.10bn £9.42bn
VAT excluding private school fees £249.37bn £255.28bn £261.81bn £267.87bn £274.12bn £280.56bn £286.81bn
Change in VAT from its baseline £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
VAT on private school fees £1.95bn £2.00bn £2.05bn £2.10bn £2.21bn £2.21bn £2.31bn
Change in private school VAT from its baseline £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Fuel duties £24.53bn £24.64bn £26.64bn £26.69bn £26.42bn £25.76bn £26.35bn
Alcohol duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Tobacco duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Vehicle excise duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Betting and gaming duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
TV licence fee £4.26bn £4.41bn £4.42bn £4.44bn £4.45bn £4.47bn £4.48bn
Council tax £49.21bn £51.88bn £54.97bn £58.29bn £61.55bn £64.92bn £68.49bn
High value council tax surcharge £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.48bn £0.49bn £0.50bn £0.51bn
Northern Ireland domestic rates £0.55bn £0.58bn £0.60bn £0.63bn £0.66bn £0.69bn £0.72bn
Business rates £34.68bn £38.04bn £38.88bn £39.76bn £43.07bn £43.13bn £44.57bn
Stamp duty land tax on the household's own purchases £6.90bn £7.39bn £7.81bn £8.21bn £8.62bn £9.02bn £9.42bn
Stamp duty land tax paid by companies £4.81bn £5.98bn £6.73bn £7.46bn £8.21bn £8.87bn £9.16bn
Land transaction tax (Wales) £0.07bn £0.08bn £0.09bn £0.09bn £0.10bn £0.10bn £0.11bn
Land and buildings transaction tax (Scotland) £0.31bn £0.32bn £0.34bn £0.35bn £0.37bn £0.38bn £0.40bn
Unspecified tax change borne by capital £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Unspecified tax change borne by consumers £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Wealth tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Wealth tax excluding the main residence £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Land value tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Carbon tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Spending by benefit and service: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Lifetime ISA bonus £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
State Pension £121.64bn £126.07bn £127.08bn £128.87bn £132.52bn £136.31bn £140.08bn
Pension Credit £6.66bn £7.04bn £7.32bn £7.46bn £7.60bn £7.77bn £7.94bn
Winter Fuel Payment £1.86bn £1.86bn £1.80bn £1.78bn £1.79bn £1.79bn £1.80bn
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland) £0.19bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.21bn £0.21bn £0.22bn £0.22bn
Universal Credit £75.21bn £80.38bn £82.93bn £84.23bn £85.58bn £86.87bn £87.97bn
Housing Benefit £8.55bn £8.89bn £9.17bn £9.31bn £9.58bn £9.84bn £10.10bn
Council Tax Reduction £2.07bn £2.18bn £2.32bn £2.46bn £2.60bn £2.74bn £2.89bn
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related) £0.79bn £0.81bn £0.83bn £0.85bn £0.86bn £0.89bn £0.90bn
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based) £5.20bn £5.34bn £5.46bn £5.59bn £5.72bn £5.85bn £5.99bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based) £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based) £0.29bn £0.30bn £0.30bn £0.31bn £0.32bn £0.32bn £0.33bn
Income Support £0.11bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Working Tax Credit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Child Tax Credit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Incapacity Benefit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Personal Independence Payment £26.94bn £28.06bn £29.13bn £29.83bn £30.54bn £31.26bn £31.96bn
Disability Living Allowance £7.49bn £7.80bn £8.10bn £8.29bn £8.49bn £8.69bn £8.88bn
Attendance Allowance £8.68bn £9.04bn £9.38bn £9.61bn £9.83bn £10.07bn £10.29bn
Carer's Allowance £4.48bn £4.67bn £4.84bn £4.96bn £5.08bn £5.19bn £5.31bn
Carer Support Payment (Scotland) £0.31bn £0.32bn £0.33bn £0.34bn £0.35bn £0.36bn £0.37bn
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland) £0.00bn £0.04bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn
Severe Disablement Allowance £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit £0.50bn £0.52bn £0.53bn £0.54bn £0.55bn £0.57bn £0.58bn
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme £0.61bn £0.62bn £0.64bn £0.65bn £0.67bn £0.68bn £0.70bn
War Widow's or Widower's Pension £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Child Benefit £16.16bn £16.83bn £17.43bn £17.85bn £18.26bn £18.69bn £19.10bn
Scottish Child Payment £0.49bn £0.52bn £0.54bn £0.55bn £0.56bn £0.57bn £0.56bn
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual) £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Healthy Start vouchers £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn
Maternity Allowance £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Statutory Maternity Pay £3.30bn £3.39bn £3.47bn £3.55bn £3.63bn £3.72bn £3.80bn
Statutory Paternity Pay £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Statutory Sick Pay £1.12bn £1.15bn £1.18bn £1.21bn £1.24bn £1.27bn £1.29bn
Sure Start Maternity Grant £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn
Bereavement Support Payment £0.67bn £0.69bn £0.70bn £0.72bn £0.73bn £0.75bn £0.77bn
Widowed Parent's Allowance £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Tax-Free Childcare £0.55bn £0.56bn £0.57bn £0.58bn £0.59bn £0.61bn £0.59bn
Extended childcare entitlement £2.99bn £3.50bn £3.60bn £3.67bn £3.77bn £3.85bn £3.94bn
Universal childcare entitlement £2.05bn £2.23bn £2.28bn £2.34bn £2.40bn £2.47bn £2.52bn
Targeted childcare entitlement £0.50bn £0.51bn £0.52bn £0.53bn £0.54bn £0.56bn £0.52bn
Childcare Offer for Wales £0.26bn £0.28bn £0.28bn £0.29bn £0.30bn £0.30bn £0.31bn
Care to Learn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Childcare Grant £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Parents' Learning Allowance £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn
Adult Dependants' Grant £0.06bn £0.06bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn
Travel Grant £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
NHS spending £203.83bn £204.54bn £205.13bn £205.79bn £206.49bn £207.23bn £207.73bn
State education spending £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn
Transport subsidy spending £25.05bn £25.13bn £25.21bn £25.29bn £25.37bn £25.46bn £25.53bn
Cost-of-living support payment £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Energy Bills Rebate £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Basic income £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Disability basic income £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Other public spending budget change £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Caseloads: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Lifetime ISA bonus 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
State Pension 11,261k 11,158k 10,849k 10,746k 10,783k 10,822k 10,848k
Pension Credit 1,485k 1,483k 1,480k 1,461k 1,462k 1,464k 1,460k
Winter Fuel Payment 7,842k 7,793k 7,494k 7,407k 7,432k 7,459k 7,477k
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland) 803k 803k 803k 800k 803k 806k 808k
Universal Credit 6,334k 6,341k 6,366k 6,347k 6,345k 6,333k 6,298k
Housing Benefit 1,249k 1,247k 1,250k 1,234k 1,238k 1,240k 1,239k
Council Tax Reduction 3,175k 3,198k 3,209k 3,229k 3,244k 3,257k 3,264k
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related) 71k 71k 71k 71k 71k 72k 72k
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based) 719k 721k 723k 726k 728k 731k 732k
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based) 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based) 67k 67k 67k 68k 68k 68k 68k
Income Support 25k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Working Tax Credit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Child Tax Credit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Incapacity Benefit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Personal Independence Payment 3,566k 3,579k 3,589k 3,601k 3,613k 3,626k 3,635k
Disability Living Allowance 1,291k 1,295k 1,299k 1,303k 1,308k 1,312k 1,316k
Attendance Allowance 1,694k 1,700k 1,705k 1,711k 1,716k 1,723k 1,727k
Carer's Allowance 1,034k 1,038k 1,041k 1,044k 1,048k 1,051k 1,053k
Carer Support Payment (Scotland) 71k 71k 72k 72k 72k 72k 73k
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland) 0k 71k 72k 72k 72k 72k 73k
Severe Disablement Allowance 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit 137k 137k 138k 138k 139k 139k 140k
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme 93k 93k 94k 94k 94k 95k 95k
War Widow's or Widower's Pension 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Child Benefit 8,102k 8,128k 8,142k 8,165k 8,191k 8,216k 8,232k
Scottish Child Payment 350k 352k 353k 357k 354k 355k 342k
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual) 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Healthy Start vouchers 199k 200k 201k 201k 202k 203k 203k
Maternity Allowance 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Statutory Maternity Pay 332k 334k 335k 336k 337k 338k 339k
Statutory Paternity Pay 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Statutory Sick Pay 181k 182k 182k 183k 183k 184k 185k
Sure Start Maternity Grant 26k 26k 26k 26k 26k 27k 27k
Bereavement Support Payment 98k 98k 98k 99k 99k 99k 100k
Widowed Parent's Allowance 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Tax-Free Childcare 1,014k 1,024k 1,024k 1,027k 1,027k 1,031k 1,013k
Extended childcare entitlement 796k 801k 806k 809k 815k 819k 820k
Universal childcare entitlement 1,071k 1,074k 1,077k 1,080k 1,086k 1,096k 1,097k
Targeted childcare entitlement 165k 156k 154k 155k 155k 156k 144k
Childcare Offer for Wales 39k 39k 39k 39k 39k 39k 39k
Care to Learn 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Childcare Grant 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Parents' Learning Allowance 98k 98k 99k 99k 99k 100k 100k
Adult Dependants' Grant 18k 18k 12k 12k 12k 13k 13k
Travel Grant 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Cost-of-living support payment 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Energy Bills Rebate 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Basic income 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Disability basic income 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Government balance, each component counted once: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Government receipts, each component once £898.82bn £941.86bn £980.11bn £1,013.84bn £1,052.89bn £1,089.01bn £1,129.10bn
Government spending £528.95bn † £543.83bn † £551.68bn † £558.06bn † £566.57bn † £575.31bn † £583.38bn †
Government balance, each receipt once £369.87bn † £398.03bn † £428.43bn † £455.77bn † £486.32bn † £513.70bn † £545.72bn †
Benefits in household_benefits but not in gov_spending £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Model totals: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
gov_tax £898.82bn £941.86bn £980.11bn £1,013.84bn £1,052.89bn £1,089.01bn £1,129.10bn
household_tax £496.91bn £527.60bn £554.51bn £577.74bn £603.32bn £627.65bn £654.69bn
pre_budget_change_household_tax £489.00bn £519.39bn £546.08bn £568.63bn £593.98bn £618.05bn £644.75bn
gov_spending £528.95bn † £543.83bn † £551.68bn † £558.06bn † £566.57bn † £575.31bn † £583.38bn †
household_benefits £528.95bn † £543.83bn † £551.68bn † £558.06bn † £566.57bn † £575.31bn † £583.38bn †
gov_balance £369.87bn † £398.03bn † £428.43bn † £455.77bn † £486.32bn † £513.70bn † £545.72bn †
Household income totals: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Household market income £1,651.49bn £1,713.03bn £1,764.05bn £1,812.97bn £1,862.19bn £1,918.39bn £1,985.28bn
Household net income £1,644.42bn † £1,688.69bn † £1,719.55bn † £1,750.62bn † £1,781.68bn † £1,821.07bn † £1,867.39bn †
Household net income (HBAI definition) £1,457.29bn £1,504.48bn £1,537.58bn £1,569.36bn £1,602.67bn £1,640.49bn £1,687.04bn
Population: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
People 69,224k 69,466k 69,668k 69,891k 70,128k 70,381k 70,550k
Benefit units 35,100k 35,223k 35,325k 35,438k 35,558k 35,686k 35,772k
Households 31,037k 31,145k 31,236k 31,336k 31,442k 31,555k 31,631k
Poverty rates: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone 16.0% 15.1% 15.4% 15.5% 15.6% 15.7% 15.7%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children 24.0% 21.1% 21.3% 21.3% 21.5% 21.8% 21.8%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 13.8% 13.5% 13.9% 14.1% 14.1% 14.2% 14.2%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 13.7% 13.2% 13.1% 13.4% 13.5% 13.5% 13.5%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone 21.4% 20.8% 21.3% 21.5% 21.7% 21.9% 22.2%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children 33.0% 30.7% 31.1% 31.1% 31.4% 31.7% 32.3%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 19.8% 19.6% 20.2% 20.5% 20.7% 20.8% 21.1%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 12.7% 12.4% 12.3% 12.5% 12.8% 12.9% 13.0%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone 17.2% 16.4% 16.5% 16.4% 16.2% 16.3% 16.5%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children 26.2% 23.5% 23.4% 23.1% 22.6% 22.8% 23.1%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 14.6% 14.4% 14.7% 14.7% 14.6% 14.7% 14.8%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 15.0% 14.8% 14.1% 14.1% 14.0% 14.0% 14.2%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone 21.6% 21.0% 21.1% 21.2% 21.3% 21.4% 21.8%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children 33.3% 31.2% 30.8% 30.7% 31.0% 31.0% 31.5%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 19.9% 19.8% 20.1% 20.3% 20.4% 20.5% 20.7%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 12.9% 12.5% 12.1% 11.9% 11.8% 11.9% 12.8%
People in poverty: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone 11,057k 10,466k 10,734k 10,860k 10,960k 11,054k 11,081k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children 3,580k 3,171k 3,210k 3,220k 3,261k 3,305k 3,317k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 5,853k 5,746k 6,021k 6,123k 6,169k 6,209k 6,219k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 1,625k 1,550k 1,504k 1,517k 1,530k 1,539k 1,545k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone 14,847k 14,422k 14,808k 14,994k 15,242k 15,402k 15,638k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children 4,937k 4,609k 4,671k 4,685k 4,757k 4,814k 4,912k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 8,406k 8,359k 8,732k 8,898k 9,024k 9,114k 9,240k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 1,504k 1,454k 1,404k 1,411k 1,460k 1,475k 1,486k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone 11,896k 11,403k 11,468k 11,487k 11,373k 11,468k 11,652k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children 3,918k 3,523k 3,519k 3,491k 3,419k 3,458k 3,516k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 6,202k 6,136k 6,338k 6,400k 6,366k 6,415k 6,515k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 1,776k 1,744k 1,611k 1,597k 1,588k 1,595k 1,621k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone 14,957k 14,597k 14,698k 14,825k 14,951k 15,042k 15,351k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children 4,976k 4,677k 4,630k 4,634k 4,690k 4,712k 4,794k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 8,443k 8,455k 8,680k 8,847k 8,916k 8,977k 9,092k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 1,537k 1,465k 1,388k 1,344k 1,346k 1,354k 1,464k
Inequality: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Gini coefficient, equivalised HBAI income before housing costs 0.3085 0.3059 0.3065 0.3071 0.3075 0.3081 0.3094
Mean household net income in each side's own deciles: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household £17,781 † £17,906 † £17,832 † £17,905 † £18,142 † £18,339 † £18,483 †
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household £27,962 † £28,917 † £28,654 † £28,906 † £29,096 † £29,646 † £30,235 †
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household £34,380 † £35,463 † £36,065 † £36,509 † £36,850 † £37,338 † £38,043 †
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household £38,785 † £40,713 † £41,873 † £42,413 † £43,145 † £43,906 † £44,167 †
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household £43,788 † £44,626 † £45,606 † £46,289 † £47,328 † £48,286 † £49,711 †
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household £48,210 † £49,525 † £50,736 † £51,914 † £52,203 † £53,174 † £54,203 †
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household £56,218 † £57,224 † £57,764 † £58,010 † £59,040 † £60,061 † £61,765 †
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household £69,150 † £70,533 † £71,800 † £73,075 † £74,092 † £75,540 † £77,427 †
Decile 9: mean household_net_income per household £79,490 † £81,421 † £82,828 † £84,135 † £85,539 † £87,053 † £89,944 †
Decile 10: mean household_net_income per household £117,581 † £120,296 † £121,933 † £124,163 † £126,045 † £128,342 † £131,110 †
Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance): head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp £6.47bn £6.76bn £6.67bn £6.86bn £7.06bn £7.35bn £7.55bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp £3.69bn £3.98bn £4.03bn £4.29bn £4.46bn £4.78bn £4.91bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year £-3.82bn £-3.94bn £-4.01bn £-4.09bn £-4.18bn £-4.18bn £-2.00bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child £-1.99bn £-1.75bn £-1.56bn £-1.46bn £-1.35bn £-1.23bn £-1.12bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20% £-20.39bn £-20.96bn £-21.38bn £-21.61bn £-21.87bn £-22.17bn £-22.60bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10% £11.02bn £11.42bn £11.77bn £12.07bn £12.37bn £12.75bn £13.07bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp £24.89bn £25.55bn £26.14bn £26.75bn £27.39bn £28.03bn £28.66bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp £2.96bn £3.21bn £3.26bn £3.46bn £3.65bn suppressed suppressed
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10% £-3.05bn £-3.18bn £-3.30bn £-3.34bn £-3.38bn £-3.42bn £-3.48bn
Raise the State Pension by 10% £-7.79bn £-8.02bn £-8.01bn £-8.12bn £-8.43bn £-8.54bn £-8.87bn
Standard reforms: change in each reform's target: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp: change in income_tax £6.61bn £6.91bn £6.83bn £7.03bn £7.24bn £7.47bn £7.73bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp: change in income_tax £3.69bn £3.99bn £4.04bn £4.25bn £4.47bn £4.74bn £4.93bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year: change in income_tax £-3.95bn £-4.08bn £-4.17bn £-4.24bn £-4.34bn £-4.41bn £-1.76bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child: change in child_benefit £2.33bn £2.14bn £1.95bn £1.84bn £1.73bn £1.62bn £1.50bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%: change in universal_credit £20.39bn £20.95bn £21.37bn £21.62bn £21.87bn £22.22bn £22.61bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%: change in national_insurance £11.28bn £11.74bn £12.06bn £12.37bn £12.69bn £13.03bn £13.49bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp: change in vat £24.69bn £25.35bn £25.94bn £26.54bn £27.17bn £27.81bn £28.43bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax £2.96bn £3.21bn £3.26bn £3.46bn £3.66bn suppressed suppressed
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%: change in universal_credit £3.05bn £3.18bn £3.29bn £3.36bn £3.43bn £3.48bn £3.52bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%: change in state_pension £10.68bn £11.18bn £11.31bn £11.55bn £12.00bn £12.44bn £12.94bn

@juaristi22

juaristi22 commented Oct 28, 2026

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Thanks for this. One thing the costing depends on that this PR doesn't cover yet is growth.

  • policyengine-uk doesn't uprate any gambling input. None of the gambling bases is in uprating_indices.yaml, and the variables declare no uprating. So a dataset's 2024-25 takings stay at that cash level in every later year.
  • The costing grows its base "using the OBR's forecast for Machine Games Duty receipts" (costings p. 67). Table 6.1 line 56 is +£135m in 2027-28, then +£130m a year, after a behavioural response.
  • On Microcosm's 2024-25 base, the higher-stake share gives about £114m a year at the 5-point rise, before any growth. The share is the Gambling Commission's Category B yield (£2.29bn) over HMRC's standard-rate base (£604.7m of liabilities ÷ 20% = £3.02bn), so 75.7%.

Could the gambling inputs be projected with the OBR's receipts forecasts for the gambling duties, as #2717 does for the receipts series it imports? It could go here or in a follow-up, ideally in the same release.

Microcosm writes machine_games_standard_rate_higher_stake_net_takings as Category B's share of the standard-rate column (PolicyEngine/microcosm#1418). It lands once a release with this PR is locked.

@MaxGhenis @claude
Address review r1: thresholds wording, later HMRC data, label case
9292e25 
State that a machine stays at the standard rate only when both its
maximum charge is at most £1 and its maximum prize at most £100. Limit
the "needs no change" claim to HMRC standard-rate liabilities before
1 April 2027, and say how to rebuild the inclusive base from later ones.
Use sentence case for the switch's label.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis

MaxGhenis commented Oct 28, 2026

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@juaristi22 Agreed: none of the seven gambling bases is uprated, so a 2024-25 dataset holds its cash takings flat in every later year. Your £114m checks out: 75.7% × £3.02bn × 5 points = £114.4m.

I'd keep the projection out of this PR and do it as a follow-up stacked on #2717, aiming for the same release:

  • It touches all seven duties, not just Machine Games Duty.
  • The index has to grow the base, not the receipts. Receipts growth carries the rate changes the model already applies: Remote Gaming Duty goes from 21% to 40% from April 2026, and remote betting from 15% to 25% from April 2027. If takings grew with receipts, the model would apply those rises twice.
  • The same goes for any Budget measure already in the October forecast. Check whether Table 4.10's Machine Games Duty line includes this one before using it.
  • The OBR's October receipts tables publish Table 4.10, "Betting and gaming duties forecast breakdown". Update the economic assumptions to the October 2026 EFO #2717's RECEIPTS_SERIES_SPECS (SDLT and business rates today) is the natural place to import it.

I've proposed that follow-up as a separate task. Meanwhile, this PR changes nothing until Microcosm supplies the new column: CI's aggregate-impact check shows no change in any year.

@juaristi22 juaristi22 mentioned this pull request Oct 29, 2026
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@MaxGhenis @juaristi22