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Add the Child Benefit qualifying young person routes for young people who have left education - #2299

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Add the Child Benefit qualifying young person routes for young people who have left education#2299
MaxGhenis wants to merge 26 commits into
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@MaxGhenis MaxGhenis commented Oct 11, 2026 •
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Fixes #2287

Stacked on #2387 and #2279. Do not merge before them. This PR reads #2279's date fact (is_before_first_september_following_16th_birthday). It needs #2387, which stops a young person's own income counting in the parent's Housing Benefit, Income Support, tax credit and Council Tax Reduction means tests: without it, a working school-leaver this PR makes a young person would bring their earnings into those tests. Until both merge, the diff here also shows their commits. This PR's own commits:

git log -p --no-merges origin/cb-qyp-school-leaver-routes ^origin/main ^origin/uc-pc-qyp-sixteen-route ^origin/means-tests-dependants-income

Summary

is_qualifying_young_person_for_child_benefit modelled only the education and training condition (Child Benefit (General) Regulations 2006 reg. 3). A young person who had left education was never a Child Benefit qualifying young person (QYP), and so never a "young person" for Housing Benefit, Income Support, income-based JSA, income-related ESA or Council Tax Reduction in England and Wales, which all take the Child Benefit definition (SSCBA 1992 s.142).

This PR adds the three conditions for young people who have left:

Regulation Who How the model reads it
4 under 17, left education, until the 31 August after the 16th birthday is_before_first_september_following_16th_birthday (from #2279)
5 under 18, registered with the careers service, not in remunerative work, for a 20-week extension period the responsible person asked for new input is_in_child_benefit_extension_period, false by default
7 under 20, from leaving until the terminal date (end of February, May, August or November) new input is_before_child_benefit_terminal_date, false by default

Reg. 7(3) pays no Child Benefit "by virtue of this regulation" in a week of remunerative work. The model applies it to the Child Benefit amount only, so the young person stays a QYP for the legacy schemes.

Against its base (main 4d80b29 with #2279 merged), 2026-27, the YAML cases below run as plain simulations on both (scratch/probe_B_main_vs_branch.txt; the base has no input for the reg. 5 and reg. 7 routes, so the probe drops them there):

Case Variable Base This PR
1: parent 40, 16-year-old who has left school young person's is_qualifying_young_person_for_child_benefit false true
child_benefit_entitlement £0 £1,406.60
is_lone_parent false true
7: 17-year-old in an extension period child_benefit_entitlement £0 £1,406.60
10: 18-year-old before the terminal date, 23 hours child_benefit_entitlement £0 £1,406.60
11: as 10, 24 hours young person's QYP status false true
child_benefit_entitlement £0 £0 (reg. 7(3))

This is a follow-up from #2279. It needs #2285, which stops a young person who heads their own benefit unit being paid Child Benefit for themselves.

The law

Child Benefit (General) Regulations 2006:

  • Reg. 2(2): "Where more than one of those regulations apply to a person, he is a qualifying young person until the last of them ceases to be satisfied."
  • Reg. 4: "(1) This regulation applies in the case of a person who has not attained the age of 17 and who has left relevant education or training. (2) Subject to paragraph (3), the condition is that the 31st August next following the person's 16th birthday has not passed. (3) In the case of a person who attains the age of 16 on 31 August in any year, the condition is that the 1st September immediately following has not passed."
  • Reg. 5: "(1) This regulation applies in the case of a person who has not attained the age of 18. (2) The condition is that— (a) the person has ceased to be in education or training; (b) the person is registered for work, education or for training with a qualifying body; (c) the person is not engaged in remunerative work; (d) the extension period which applies in the case of that person has not expired; (e) immediately before the extension period begins, the person who is responsible for him is entitled to child benefit in respect of him without regard to this regulation; and (f) the individual who is responsible for that person, within three months of that person's ceasing education or training, has made a request for the payment of child benefit during the extension period [...]". The period "ends 20 weeks after it started" (reg. 5(3)).
  • Reg. 7: "(1) This regulation applies in the case of a person who has not attained the age of 20. (2) The condition is that the period found in accordance with Cases 1 and 2 has not expired in that person's case". Case 1 runs "from the date on which he ceases to receive relevant education or approved training, up to and including— (a) the week including the terminal date", which is "(a) the last day in February, (b) the last day in May, (c) the last day in August, (d) the last day in November, whichever first occurs after the date on which the person's relevant education or approved training ceased". "(3) Child benefit is not payable in respect of a qualifying young person by virtue of this regulation for any week in which he is engaged in remunerative work."
  • Reg. 1(3): "“remunerative work” means work of not less than 24 hours a week— (a) in respect of which payment is made; or (b) which is done in expectation of payment".
  • Reg. 8: the person must not be receiving income support, income-based JSA, incapacity benefit, a tax credit, ESA or universal credit.
  • HB Regs 2006 reg. 19(1): a young person is "a person who falls within the definition of qualifying young person in section 142 of the Act". IS Regs 1987 reg. 14(1) says the same of "section 142 of the Contributions and Benefits Act".

Change

  • is_qualifying_young_person_for_child_benefit: aged 16 to 19, not receiving benefits in their own right (reg. 8), and any of: education or training begun before 19 (reg. 3, unchanged); the reg. 4 date fact; the reg. 5 extension condition; the reg. 7 input.
  • New meets_qualifying_young_person_extension_period_condition_for_child_benefit: under 18, the extension input, and not in remunerative work (reg. 5(1), (2)(c)).
  • New is_in_remunerative_work_for_child_benefit: average weekly hours of 24 or more, with a new parameter remunerative_work_hours.
  • New is_child_benefit_payable_for_person: the unit's child or QYP, unless they qualify through reg. 7 alone and are in remunerative work (reg. 7(3) with reg. 2(2)). child_benefit_child_index and child_benefit_respective_amount read it, so a barred young person does not take the eldest-child rate.
  • The legacy flag is_child_or_young_person_for_legacy_benefits is not edited. It follows the Child Benefit QYP, so Housing Benefit, the legacy benefits, lone-parent status and Council Tax Reduction pick the routes up.

Not modelled: reg. 6 (interruptions), reg. 7 Case 2 beyond the input, and the Income Support, incapacity benefit and tax credit limbs of reg. 8. The Income Support limb is #2302, stacked on this PR; the own-right input here covers Universal Credit, ESA and JSA.

The annual approximation for reg. 4

Reg. 4 ends on 31 August (1 September for a 16th birthday on 31 August). Universal Credit's route in #2279 ends "up to, but not including" 1 September. Both dates fall in the same fiscal year, so a year that starts (6 April) before one starts before the other, and reg. 4 reads #2279's fact unchanged. As there, a year counts if any of it falls in the period: every 16-year-old (age on 6 October), and a 17-year-old born from 1 September to 6 October. #2279 sets out the bias of that rule; this PR follows it so that Child Benefit, Universal Credit and Pension Credit agree on a 16-year-old.

Invariants

  1. Reg. 4 against calendar arithmetic that shares no code with the model: a person outside education is a QYP for a year exactly when they are 16 to 19 on 6 October and the year starts on or before the reg. 4 end date, for every date of birth.
  2. Over every combination of age, education, training, own-right benefits, the three leaver facts and hours, the status is the union of the four conditions within ages 16 to 19 and without own-right benefits. So each condition ends at its age limit, own-right benefits exclude every condition, and with the leaver facts off the status is reg. 3's alone, as before.
  3. Switching a leaver fact on never removes the status.
  4. Child Benefit is payable for the unit's child or QYP unless they qualify through reg. 7 alone and are in remunerative work; they stay a QYP and a legacy young person.
  5. Child Benefit entitlement is the eldest payable member at the eldest rate and each other at the additional rate, for 52 weeks.

Tests

  • Properties, new test_child_benefit_school_leaver_routes_properties.py:
    • invariant 1 for every date of birth from 2006 to 2011 (2,191 people, ages 14 to 20 on 6 October 2026), with the 31 August, 1 September and 6/7 October edges asserted, and again on Hypothesis-drawn dates of birth and years;
    • invariants 2 to 4 over 6,144 combinations (8 ages, every education value, training, own-right benefits, hours of 0, 23 and 24, and the 8 combinations of the three facts);
    • invariant 5 on generated benefit units, from the inputs and the weekly rates alone.
  • Oracle, test_child_and_adult_definitions_properties.py: Child Benefit joins Universal Credit and Pension Credit in the 16-year-old route.
  • YAML, new child_benefit_school_leaver_routes.yaml, 16 cases hand-computed (2026-27; eldest rate £27.05 × 52 = £1,406.60):
Case Facts Expected
1 parent 40, 16-year-old who has left school QYP; Child Benefit £1,406.60; legacy young person; lone parent
2 16-year-old apprentice, 30 hours QYP and paid: reg. 4 has no education or work condition
3 born 15 September 2009 (17 on 6 October) the period runs to 31 August 2026: QYP
4 born 31 August 2009 the period ended on 1 September 2025: not a QYP
5 17 and 18, left school neither is a QYP by default
6 16, receiving a benefit in own right not a QYP (reg. 8)
7 17, in an extension period QYP (reg. 5)
8 as 7, working 24 hours not a QYP (reg. 5(2)(c))
9 18, extension input set not a QYP (reg. 5(1))
10 18, before the terminal date, 23 hours QYP and paid (reg. 7)
11 as 10, 24 hours, earning £20,000 still a QYP and a legacy young person; Child Benefit £0 (reg. 7(3)); the parent's HB, IS and CTR applicable income £0: the young person's earnings are not the parent's (#2387)
12 16, before the terminal date, 40 hours paid: reg. 4 also applies (reg. 2(2))
13 parent, working 18-year-old before the terminal date, child of 10 the child of 10 is the eldest paid child: £1,406.60
14 20, terminal input set not a QYP
15 two 16-year-olds, one at school, one left (£27.05 + £17.90) × 52 = £2,337.40
16 lone 16-year-old who has left school a QYP by status, not their own
  • Changed expectations from main's benefit cap work. Two cases in benefit_cap_specified_benefits.yaml asserted that a 16-year-old who has left education is not a Housing Benefit young person, so their DLA or armed forces independence payment does not lift the Housing Benefit cap; the exemption's docstring named this PR's issue (Child Benefit qualifying young person omits the school-leaver conditions (Child Benefit (General) Regulations 2006 regs 4, 5 and 7) #2287) as the gap. Under reg. 4 they are a Child Benefit qualifying young person, so a Housing Benefit young person (HB Regs 2006 reg. 19), and their benefit lifts the cap (reg. 75F(1)). Both cases now say so, as do the exemption's docstring, its inline comment, the single-claimant rate's documentation and has_sixteen_year_old_dependant's docstring, which all named Child Benefit qualifying young person omits the school-leaver conditions (Child Benefit (General) Regulations 2006 regs 4, 5 and 7) #2287 as the gap; Universal Credit's exemption is unchanged. The reference oracle in test_benefit_cap_specified_benefits_properties.py (reference_specified_benefit) made the same assumption, counting the 16-year-old school-leaver role as a young person for Universal Credit only; it now counts them for both schemes (CI caught it on Add the Child Tax Credit qualifying young person period after leaving education #2301, which carries this PR).
  • Changed expectation. housing_benefit_applicable_income_childcare_element.yaml asserted that a disabled 16-year-old outside education "is not a relevant young person". Reg. 4 makes them a young person until 31 August, so HB reg. 28(6) counts them (1 relevant child, £9,000). The case is split in two: the default, and the same person with the reg. 4 period ended, which keeps the original point that the disability age extension does not itself create the status.

Mutation checks, each applied alone in a copy of the branch (YAML cases and property tests that fail):

Mutation YAML cases Property tests
Reg. 4 dropped 1, 2, 3, 15, 16 both calendar tests; the union grid
Reg. 5 dropped 7 the union grid
Reg. 7 dropped 10, 11 the union grid
Reg. 5 without the remunerative work bar 8 the union grid
Reg. 5 without the under-18 limit 9 the union grid
Reg. 7(3) ignored (always payable) 11, 13 the union grid
Reg. 7(3) bars every working young person 2, 12 the union grid; the entitlement count
Remunerative work from 25 hours 8, 11 the union grid

Run locally at e53c1eb (logs in the session folder):

The full suites run in CI.

Microsimulation impact

Aggregate impact report (CI)

The report runs main a8b2848 against this PR merged into it (4772258) on the certified Enhanced FRS 2024-25 (policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1), one full run per side for each year 2025-26 to 2031-32. Result: pass, 0 checks broken, 2 moves flagged. It measures this PR with #2279 and #2387 below it. Commits since then change tests only (the benefit cap oracle and #2279's test generator), so the report carries over to the current head. #2279's own report shows no household change and #2387's no change at all, so every household change here is this PR's.

£ million a year 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Child Benefit +5.2 +5.4 +5.6 +5.7 +5.9 +6.0 +6.2
Income tax +1.8 +1.8 +1.9 +1.9 +2.0 +2.1 +2.2
Household net income +3.5 +3.6 +3.7 +3.8 +3.9 +3.9 +4.0
Government balance −3.5 −3.6 −3.7 −3.8 −3.9 −3.9 −4.0

The Child Benefit caseload rises by 1.0k each year. Absolute poverty before housing costs falls by 4.7k people in 2025-26 and about 200 a year from 2026-27 to 2030-31; absolute poverty after housing costs falls by 4.5k in 2026-27; relative poverty before housing costs falls by 4.5k to 4.8k people a year from 2026-27.

The two flags are relative poverty after housing costs for children in 2029-30: +0.16pp, +24.2k (everyone +39.6k, pensioners +4.4k). They come from the poverty line, not from anyone's income falling. in_relative_poverty_ahc compares each household with 60% of the same run's person-weighted median equivalised income after housing costs, so a family near the median that gains Child Benefit moves the median and the line with it. Absolute poverty after housing costs, against a fixed line, does not change in 2029-30. In the local run below, no household loses in 2029-30, and the households that change hold 23,346 weighted people, none aged 66 or over; the report's 39.6k new people below the line, 4.4k of them pensioners, are mostly people whose income does not change. Relative poverty before housing costs falls in the same year.

The standard reform costing "Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%" moves by −£1.6m to −£2.2m a year. #2279's own report shows the same line, so it is #2279's.

Local runs

Real runs on Enhanced FRS 2024-25 (uk-data 1.58.0, sha256 5ba399ea5ab9a6c7), one run each for 2024-25 to 2030-31, exact comparison of every record. Base: main e01f2f5 with #2279 (9d2fadb) and #2387 merged (a local merge, eeabc65e3), so the figures are this PR's alone. Branch: e626d3f. Outputs: impact/prB_r2/ in the session folder.

Who changes. In 2026-27, 102 records (203,321 weighted people) become Child Benefit qualifying young persons by status. Only 22 records (4,929 weighted) are in a family whose claimant now counts them: in the microdata most 16-year-olds outside education are the only member of their own benefit unit, apart from their parents (PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk-data#562), and since #2285 nobody is their own QYP.

Aggregates (£ million a year):

Variable Records that differ 2024-25 2026-27 2030-31
child_benefit 22 +4.6 +4.9 +5.5
household_tax 4 (8 in 2030-31) +1.5 +1.6 +1.8
household_net_income 22 +3.1 +3.3 +3.6
housing_benefit_applicable_income 22 +3.1 +3.3 +3.6
council_tax_reduction_applicable_income 22 +3.1 +3.3 +3.6

The tax is the High Income Child Benefit Charge: in 2026-27 the change in household_tax equals the change in CB_HITC exactly (impact/prB_r2/hitc_check.txt).

Per benefit unit in 2026-27 (impact/prB_r2/context.txt): in 16 units the new Child Benefit (£930.80, the additional rate, or £1,406.60) is added to both applicable incomes in full. In 4 units the charge takes back all or nearly all of it, so the applicable incomes move by under £1 either way. In the 2 units whose parent becomes a lone parent, Council Tax Reduction income rises by the £1,406.60, and Housing Benefit income by £1,040 less, because the lone parent earnings disregard is £25 a week where a single claimant's is £5. No saved Housing Benefit, Income Support, Council Tax Reduction, Universal Credit, tax credit or Pension Credit award output changes in any year. That does not mean none of these families is on those benefits: three affected households keep a positive reported Council Tax Reduction (£156.54 for one, £417.43 for two others in 2026-27), which council_tax_benefit keeps as reported where it does not simulate the claim (for example where the scheme is not supported), so the comparison does not compute how those awards would respond. is_lone_parent changes for those 2 records (35 weighted).

Winners and losers (household_net_income, changes over 50p):

Year Gaining (records / weighted households) Mean gain Losing
2024-25 18 / 3,530 £886 0
2026-27 20 / 4,274 £781 0
2030-31 18 / 3,628 £1,001 0

In 2026-27 the gaining households by decile of base household income: 1 (529 weighted), 2 (863), 3 (1,419), 4 (283), 6 (475) and 9 (706, each gaining £0.59 after the charge). People in poverty after housing costs fall by 3,899 and before housing costs by 196.

Reproducer: policyengine_uk/tests/test_child_benefit_school_leaver_routes_properties.py::test_status_is_the_union_of_the_four_conditions

axiom: Child Benefit (General) Regulations 2006 regs 2, 4, 5, 7 and 8 TheAxiomFoundation/rulespec-uk#356 queued (addendum; blocker stated there: the rows are in an unreleased ingest, axiom-corpus#765, and a billed encoder run needs approval)

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

MaxGhenis and others added 9 commits October 10, 2026 18:09
@MaxGhenis @claude
Add the UC and Pension Credit qualifying young person route with no e…
6af7019 
…ducation condition

UC Regs 2013 reg. 5(1)(a) and SPC Regs 2002 reg. 4A(1)(a) make a person who
has reached 16 a qualifying young person up to the 1 September following
their 16th birthday, whatever their education. The model encoded only the
education route, so a 16-year-old outside education was not a UC or PC
qualifying young person.

is_before_first_september_following_16th_birthday places that date from the
date of birth and counts the route for a year that starts (6 April) before
it: every annual age of 16, and a 17-year-old born from 1 September to 6
October. Both QYP variables OR it with the education route, under the same
age band and own-right benefits exclusion. Tests: YAML cases hand-computed
from the regulations (flags, date edges, UC child element and work
allowance, PC child addition), the property-test oracle, a calendar
differential over every birth date in 2008-2011 and across years, and a
grid test of sufficiency, monotonicity, exclusion and UC/PC agreement.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis
Merge remote-tracking branch 'origin/uc-pc-qyp-sixteen-route' into cb…
3d327fe 
…-qyp-school-leaver-routes
@MaxGhenis @claude
Add the Child Benefit qualifying young person conditions for school l…
505ac7e 
…eavers

Child Benefit (General) Regulations 2006 regs 4, 5 and 7 were not modelled:
is_qualifying_young_person_for_child_benefit was reg. 3 (education or
training) alone, so a 16-year-old who had left school was not a qualifying
young person for Child Benefit, nor a young person for Housing Benefit, the
legacy benefits or Council Tax Reduction (SSCBA 1992 s.142).

- Reg. 4: until the 31 August after the 16th birthday, read from
  is_before_first_september_following_16th_birthday.
- Reg. 5: the 20-week extension period for a 16- or 17-year-old not in
  remunerative work, from the new input is_in_child_benefit_extension_period.
- Reg. 7: until the terminal date after leaving, from the new input
  is_before_child_benefit_terminal_date.
- Reg. 7(3): no Child Benefit for a young person who qualifies through
  reg. 7 alone and works 24 hours or more a week
  (is_child_benefit_payable_for_person); they stay a qualifying young person.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis @claude
Update the Housing Benefit childcare case for a disabled 16-year-old …
086b78b 
…school leaver

A disabled 16-year-old outside education is now a young person until the 31 August after their 16th birthday (Child Benefit reg. 4; HB reg 19(1)), so HB reg 28(6) counts them. Keep the original point, that the disability age extension does not itself create young-person status, as a second case with the reg. 4 period ended.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis @claude
Place the property tests' 16-year-old outside the reg 5(1)(a) route
2ef1d8d 
Two property tests build a member who is outside every programme's family
as a 16 to 19 year old not in education. At 16 that member is now a UC
qualifying young person under reg 5(1)(a), so the family's UC gains a child
element and the tests' premise no longer holds. Their generators now set
is_before_first_september_following_16th_birthday false for that member.
The test functions are unchanged, so Hypothesis draws the same examples.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis @claude
Merge remote-tracking branch 'origin/uc-pc-qyp-sixteen-route' into cb…
64ca2d2 
…-qyp-school-leaver-routes

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis @claude
Keep the Income Support property's outside member out of the Child Be…
bb6f487 
…nefit reg. 4 period

test_excluded_member_never_changes_is_eligibility adds a member aged 16 or over who is not in education, on the premise that they are not a qualifying young person. With reg. 4 a 16-year-old who has left education is one until the 31 August after their 16th birthday, so the generator now puts the member past that date, as #2279 does for the same reason in two other property tests.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis @claude
Merge remote-tracking branch 'origin/claimant-not-own-child-or-qyp' i…
70eb1cf 
…nto cb-qyp-school-leaver-routes

Brings in #2285's review round 2 head (212db88).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis @claude
Merge origin/main into cb-qyp-school-leaver-routes
2575e9e 
Brings in main with #2285 and #2288 merged.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
This was referenced Oct 11, 2026
Draft
Draft
MaxGhenis and others added 3 commits October 11, 2026 08:53
@MaxGhenis @claude
Address review r1c: partial-input warning, two-child limit and mixed …
b171ef7 
…date-of-birth tests

- The route variable's docs now warn that setting it for some people gives
  everyone else false, and point to date_of_birth for placing one person.
  They also state that the rule departs from the 6 October reading that
  is_SP_age uses.
- YAML: a 2025-26 case where the 16-year-old ranks first under the
  two-child limit and the youngest child loses the element (GBP 7,581.72),
  and a case mixing a person with date_of_birth and one without (both in
  the route). The second kills a mutant that reads the raw date_of_birth
  input instead of birth_day.
- means_test_income_members.yaml: the 17-year-old case's name says why they
  are outside the route.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis
Merge remote-tracking branch 'origin/main' into uc-pc-qyp-sixteen-route
addd127
@MaxGhenis
Merge remote-tracking branch 'origin/main' into uc-pc-qyp-sixteen-route
9d2fadb
@MaxGhenis MaxGhenis mentioned this pull request Oct 12, 2026
Closed
@MaxGhenis @claude
Count only the claimant's and partner's income in the legacy means tests
fafd220 
Fixes #2385. Housing Benefit, Income Support, tax credit and Council Tax
Reduction applicable income counted the family's own children's and young
persons' income, tax, contributions and personal benefits too, an
approximation each formula's comment called a follow-up. The law counts
the claimant's and partner's alone: HB Regs 2006 reg 25(3) and IS Regs
1987 reg 23(2) say in terms that a child's or young person's income is
not the claimant's; the tax credit income regulations (reg 3(1)) and every
Council Tax Reduction scheme count the claimant or applicant and partner
(SSI 2021/249 reg 36(2) says so in terms). The household head who applies
alone for Council Tax Reduction keeps the treatment #2288 gave them.

Tests: new YAML (three cases, each failing on main), a property test that
a dependant's income never changes any of the seven income totals, and
the Scottish CTR young-person tests updated to the rule.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis MaxGhenis mentioned this pull request Oct 12, 2026
Merged
MaxGhenis and others added 3 commits October 12, 2026 09:19
@MaxGhenis @claude
Merge origin/means-tests-dependants-income into cb-qyp-school-leaver-…
c6f0eb8 
…routes

Brings in #2387 (only the claimant's and partner's income in the legacy
means tests), which this PR needs, and main e01f2f5 with it. The one
conflict, the means-test property docstring, keeps both changes.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis @claude
Merge origin/uc-pc-qyp-sixteen-route into cb-qyp-school-leaver-routes
3c61b47 
Brings in #2279's head 9d2fadb.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis @claude
Give the working school-leaver in Case 11 earnings, and check the par…
e626d3f 
…ent's means tests

Review round 1 of #2299: a young person who qualifies through reg. 7 and
works 24 hours stays a young person, so their earnings must not enter the
parent's Housing Benefit, Income Support or Council Tax Reduction income.
#2387, merged in here, makes that so; Case 11 now has £20,000 of earnings
and asserts the three applicable incomes are nil.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
MaxGhenis added a commit that referenced this pull request Oct 12, 2026
@MaxGhenis @claude
Merge origin/cb-qyp-school-leaver-routes into ctc-qyp-school-leaver-r…
33fa9ee 
…outes

Brings in #2299's round 1 fixes, #2387 and #2279's head 9d2fadb.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
MaxGhenis added a commit that referenced this pull request Oct 12, 2026
@MaxGhenis @claude
Merge origin/ctc-qyp-school-leaver-routes into qyp-income-support-exc…
49c549d 
…lusion

Brings in #2301 and #2299's round 1 fixes, #2387 and #2279's head. The
one conflict, the CTC QYP docstring, keeps both changes: the ceased-
education wording and the Income Support own-right input.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
This was referenced Oct 14, 2026
Open
Merged
MaxGhenis and others added 6 commits October 21, 2026 21:18
@MaxGhenis
Merge remote-tracking branch 'origin/main' into uc-pc-qyp-sixteen-route
0b0d764 
# Conflicts:
#	policyengine_uk/tests/test_legacy_award_readers_properties.py
@MaxGhenis @claude
Merge origin/main into means-tests-dependants-income
78a8cca 
Main has moved the tax credit member mask into tax_credits_current_year_income
and, through #2078, means-tests the Council Tax Reduction applicant and
partner. Both conflicts take main's code and re-apply this PR's change
where the masks now live: the tax credit income counts the claimants
alone, and the CTR income the applicant and partner alone, dropping the
family's children and young persons that #2078 still counted.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis @claude
Assert the UC benefit cap single rate by its name after #2089
16b5c56 
#2089 replaced the shared is_benefit_cap_single_claimant_rate with
is_uc_benefit_cap_single_claimant_rate and its Housing Benefit counterpart.
The lone-parent case asserts the UC rate, which is still false: the
16-year-old outside education is a qualifying young person the claimant is
responsible for.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis @claude
Merge origin/means-tests-dependants-income into cb-qyp-school-leaver-…
91e963d 
…routes

Brings in #2387 at 78a8cca, which carries main. The one conflict, the
legacy readers property test, takes #2279's current version: this PR's
own commits do not touch it.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis @claude
Merge origin/uc-pc-qyp-sixteen-route into cb-qyp-school-leaver-routes
6b05191 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis @claude
Let a school-leaver's DLA and AFIP lift the Housing Benefit cap
2f0f15a 
After main's benefit cap work, two cases asserted that a 16-year-old who
has left education is not a Housing Benefit young person, so their DLA or
armed forces independence payment does not lift the cap, and the
exemption's docstring named this PR's issue (#2287) as the gap. Under reg.
4 they are a Child Benefit qualifying young person until the 31 August
after their 16th birthday, and so a Housing Benefit young person (HB Regs
2006 reg. 19), whose benefit lifts the cap (reg. 75F(1)). Both
expectations and the docstring now say so; Universal Credit's exemption
is unchanged.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@github-actions

github-actions Bot commented Oct 22, 2026 •
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Aggregate impact on certified data: pass

Base 582b86315c against head e501a92e40, both on enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5 (policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1, sha256 056e80fd8e91), fiscal years 2025-26 to 2031-32. Each year is a full microsimulation run on each side.

Checks: 0 broken by this change, 1 failing on both sides, 0 fixed. Moves flagged for review: 2 (thresholds in report_spec.yaml; a flag does not fail the job).

Workflow run and full report

Notes

  • In the years a figure from fewer than 10 records is suppressed (spending.disabled_students_allowance), every total containing it, and the decile incomes, are rebuilt from their other components, so no published total includes it. Those totals are marked †. A change is withheld where the two sides leave out different figures and can't be lined up.

Moves flagged for review

Measure Year Base Head Change
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children 2029-30 31.3% 31.5% +0.16pp
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children 2029-30 4,771k 4,795k +24.2k

Receipts by tax head

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Income tax +£1.8m +£1.8m +£1.9m +£1.9m +£2.0m +£2.1m +£2.2m

Spending by benefit and service

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Child Benefit +£5.2m +£5.4m +£5.6m +£5.7m +£5.9m +£6.0m +£6.2m
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed

Caseloads

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Child Benefit +1.0k +1.0k +1.0k +1.0k +1.0k +1.0k +1.0k
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed

Government balance, each component counted once

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Government receipts, each component once +£1.8m +£1.8m +£1.9m +£1.9m +£2.0m +£2.1m +£2.2m
Government spending +£5.2m † +£5.4m † +£5.6m † +£5.7m † +£5.9m † +£6.0m † +£6.2m †
Government balance, each receipt once -£3.5m † -£3.6m † -£3.7m † -£3.8m † -£3.9m † -£3.9m † -£4.0m †

Model totals

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
gov_tax +£1.8m +£1.8m +£1.9m +£1.9m +£2.0m +£2.1m +£2.2m
household_tax +£1.8m +£1.8m +£1.9m +£1.9m +£2.0m +£2.1m +£2.2m
pre_budget_change_household_tax +£1.8m +£1.8m +£1.9m +£1.9m +£2.0m +£2.1m +£2.2m
gov_spending +£5.2m † +£5.4m † +£5.6m † +£5.7m † +£5.9m † +£6.0m † +£6.2m †
household_benefits +£5.2m † +£5.4m † +£5.6m † +£5.7m † +£5.9m † +£6.0m † +£6.2m †
gov_balance -£3.5m † -£3.6m † -£3.7m † -£3.8m † -£3.9m † -£3.9m † -£4.0m †

Household income totals

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Household net income +£3.5m † +£3.6m † +£3.7m † +£3.8m † +£3.9m † +£3.9m † +£4.0m †
Household net income (HBAI definition) +£3.5m +£3.6m +£3.7m +£3.8m +£3.9m +£3.9m +£4.0m

Poverty rates

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone -0.01pp -0.00pp -0.00pp -0.00pp -0.00pp -0.00pp 0
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children -0.01pp -0.00pp -0.00pp -0.00pp -0.00pp -0.00pp 0
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults -0.01pp -0.00pp -0.00pp -0.00pp -0.00pp -0.00pp 0
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone 0 -0.01pp 0 0 0 0 0
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children 0 -0.01pp 0 0 0 0 0
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 0 -0.01pp 0 0 0 0 0
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone 0 -0.01pp -0.01pp -0.01pp -0.01pp -0.01pp -0.01pp
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children 0 -0.01pp -0.01pp -0.01pp -0.01pp -0.01pp -0.01pp
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 0 -0.01pp -0.01pp -0.01pp -0.01pp -0.01pp -0.01pp
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone 0 0 0 0 +0.06pp +0.01pp -0.01pp
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children 0 0 0 0 +0.16pp 0 -0.01pp
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 0 0 0 0 +0.02pp +0.01pp -0.01pp
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 0 0 0 0 +0.04pp +0.00pp 0

People in poverty

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone -4.7k -203 -203 -204 -205 -206 0
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children -1.9k -81 -81 -82 -82 -82 0
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults -2.8k -122 -122 -122 -123 -124 0
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone 0 -4.5k 0 0 0 0 0
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children 0 -1.8k 0 0 0 0 0
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 0 -2.7k 0 0 0 0 0
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone 0 -4.5k -4.5k -4.5k -4.6k -4.6k -4.8k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children 0 -1.8k -1.8k -1.8k -1.8k -1.8k -1.9k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 0 -2.7k -2.7k -2.7k -2.7k -2.7k -2.9k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone 0 0 0 0 +39.6k +3.8k -4.6k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children 0 0 0 0 +24.2k 0 -1.8k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 0 0 0 0 +11.0k +3.6k -2.8k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 0 0 0 0 +4.4k +222 0

Inequality

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Gini coefficient, equivalised HBAI income before housing costs -0.0000 -0.0000 -0.0000 -0.0000 -0.0000 -0.0000 -0.0000

Mean household net income in each side's own deciles

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household +£0.14 † +£0.14 † +£0.14 † +£0.14 † +£0.15 † +£0.15 † +£0.15 †
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household +£0.29 † +£0.29 † +£0.29 † +£0.30 † +£0.31 † +£0.31 † +£0.32 †
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household +£0.46 † +£0.48 † +£0.49 † +£0.51 † +£0.51 † +£0.52 † +£0.54 †
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household +£0.09 † +£0.09 † +£0.10 † +£0.10 † +£0.10 † +£0.10 † +£0.09 †
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household -£3.88 † -£6.13 † -£4.09 † -£4.08 † -£0.29 † -£2.92 † -£4.50 †
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household +£3.05 † +£22 † +£3.20 † +£3.30 † +£2.00 † +£4.96 † +£3.38 †
Decile 9: mean household_net_income per household +£0.00 † +£0.00 † +£0.00 † +£0.00 † +£0.00 † +£0.00 † +£0.00 †

Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance)

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp 0 +£0 -£0 -£0 -£0 +£0 0
Raise higher rate by 1pp +£0 -£0 +£1 +£0 +£2 +£0 -£1
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year +£0 -£0 +£0 0 0 +£0 -£1
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child -£1.5m -£1.4m -£1.3m -£1.3m -£1.2m -£1.1m -£1.0m
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20% -£1.6m -£1.6m -£1.7m -£1.7m -£2.1m -£2.1m -£2.2m
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10% +£0 -£0 -£0 -£1 +£0 +£0 -£1
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp +£8 -£0 +£0 -£0 +£1 +£0 -£1
Raise additional rate by 3pp +£0 -£0 -£0 -£0 0 +£0 0
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10% -£1 -£0 -£1 -£0 +£1 +£0 0
Raise the State Pension by 10% +£0 0 0 0 -£0 0 -£0

Standard reforms: change in each reform's target

Measure 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp: change in income_tax 0 0 +£0 0 0 0 0
Raise higher rate by 1pp: change in income_tax +£0 0 +£0 0 -£0 +£0 0
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year: change in income_tax 0 0 +£0 0 -£0 0 -£0
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child: change in child_benefit +£1.7m +£1.6m +£1.5m +£1.4m +£1.4m +£1.3m +£1.2m
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%: change in universal_credit +£1.6m +£1.6m +£1.7m +£1.7m +£2.1m +£2.1m +£2.2m
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax 0 +£0 +£0 0 0 0 0

Household net income by decile

Mean change in household net income per household, and as a share of the decile's base income; households stay in the base run's deciles.

Base decile 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Decile 1 fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change
Decile 2 fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change
Decile 3 fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change
Decile 4 fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change
Decile 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Decile 6 fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change
Decile 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Decile 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Decile 9 fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change fewer than 10 households change
Decile 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
all 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Year People gaining over £1 People losing over £1
2025-26 0.0% 0.0%
2026-27 0.0% 0.0%
2027-28 0.0% 0.0%
2028-29 0.0% 0.0%
2029-30 0.0% 0.0%
2030-31 0.0% 0.0%
2031-32 0.0% 0.0%

No change in any year: components the model counts twice; population.

Checks failing on both base and head (1)
  • VAT is never negative (sign:vat): 2025-26: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-54,797,972 in total; 2026-27: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-56,271,349 in total; 2027-28: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-57,609,146 in total
Counted-once check

Each of 84 components was raised by £1 per unit in 2026-27, and every head of its totals was read household by household: its own head must rise by exactly £1, no other tax head may move, no other benefit may rise, and the model's own total must move by what its heads moved. A head that breaks a rule is measured again twice: with every other head held at its baseline value, and with every other head held at its value after the first £1 while the component rises again. It fails where either still shows the response. 0 failed; 0 were skipped.

Provenance
Side Commit Runtime Environment hash Partition hash Time
base main 582b86315c uk 2.146.1 (files 792e7aaf1a15), core 3.33.2, py 3.13.16 aarch64 5d40da9d9749 f210f83d5be4 1520.55s
head #2299 merged into main e501a92e40 uk 2.146.1 (files 6e219a13f9c2), core 3.33.2, py 3.13.16 aarch64 5d40da9d9749 f210f83d5be4 1529.39s

Dataset: hf://policyengine/policyengine-uk-data-private/enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5@2526edbbb687a3b54dbb11272e5389e4b62d2ac2, sha256 056e80fd8e9151d78f432a25cde863340baee81304c6216a37fb575ce8563784 (verified on both sides), policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1.

Receipts by tax head: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Income tax £299.29bn £319.01bn £336.47bn £351.62bn £367.17bn £385.29bn £403.60bn
National Insurance (employee and self-employed) £52.58bn £54.94bn £56.75bn £58.48bn £60.62bn £62.57bn £65.03bn
National Insurance (employer) £152.64bn £159.18bn £164.14bn £168.73bn £176.11bn £181.72bn £188.90bn
Employer NI change borne by capital £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Employer NI change borne by consumers £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Capital gains tax £12.62bn £13.06bn £13.55bn £14.04bn £14.54bn £15.09bn £15.65bn
Student loan repayments £7.83bn £8.12bn £8.35bn £8.56bn £8.79bn £9.04bn £9.38bn
VAT £253.71bn £260.53bn £266.72bn £273.14bn £279.83bn £286.71bn £293.71bn
Change in VAT from its baseline £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
VAT on private school fees £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Fuel duties £24.53bn £24.64bn £26.64bn £26.69bn £26.42bn £25.76bn £26.35bn
Alcohol duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Tobacco duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Vehicle excise duties £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
TV licence fee £4.28bn £4.43bn £4.44bn £4.46bn £4.48bn £4.51bn £4.53bn
Council tax £49.56bn £52.45bn £55.78bn £59.39bn £62.98bn £66.74bn £70.70bn
High value council tax surcharge £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.48bn £0.49bn £0.51bn £0.52bn
Northern Ireland domestic rates £0.55bn £0.58bn £0.61bn £0.63bn £0.67bn £0.70bn £0.73bn
Business rates £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn £31.73bn
Stamp duty land tax (own purchases, and corporate until the £10.06bn £10.56bn £10.98bn £11.40bn £11.81bn £12.23bn £12.64bn
Land transaction tax (Wales) £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Land and buildings transaction tax (Scotland) £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn
Unspecified tax change borne by capital £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Unspecified tax change borne by consumers £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Wealth tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Wealth tax excluding the main residence £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Land value tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Carbon tax £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Spending by benefit and service: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
State Pension £122.15bn £126.64bn £127.57bn £129.47bn £133.29bn £137.24bn £141.32bn
Pension Credit £6.68bn £7.07bn £7.06bn £7.13bn £7.26bn £7.39bn £7.49bn
Winter Fuel Payment £1.70bn £1.68bn £1.59bn £1.58bn £1.57bn £1.55bn £1.52bn
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland) £0.19bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.21bn £0.21bn £0.22bn £0.22bn
Universal Credit £78.81bn £83.11bn £84.93bn £86.69bn £87.61bn £89.03bn £90.35bn
Housing Benefit £8.59bn £8.93bn £9.19bn £9.34bn £9.61bn £9.87bn £10.15bn
Council Tax Reduction £1.99bn £2.03bn £2.08bn £2.13bn £2.18bn £2.23bn £2.29bn
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related) £2.12bn £2.18bn £2.23bn £2.28bn £2.33bn £2.39bn £2.45bn
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based) £5.22bn £5.36bn £5.49bn £5.62bn £5.76bn £5.90bn £6.04bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based) £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based) £0.29bn £0.30bn £0.30bn £0.31bn £0.32bn £0.33bn £0.33bn
Income Support £0.12bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Working Tax Credit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Child Tax Credit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Incapacity Benefit £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Personal Independence Payment £27.05bn £28.19bn £28.94bn £29.64bn £30.37bn £31.11bn £31.87bn
Disability Living Allowance £7.52bn £7.83bn £8.04bn £8.24bn £8.44bn £8.65bn £8.86bn
Attendance Allowance £8.71bn £9.08bn £9.32bn £9.55bn £9.78bn £10.02bn £10.26bn
Carer's Allowance £4.50bn £4.69bn £4.81bn £4.93bn £5.05bn £5.17bn £5.29bn
Carer Support Payment (Scotland) £0.31bn £0.32bn £0.33bn £0.34bn £0.35bn £0.36bn £0.36bn
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland) £0.00bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn
Severe Disablement Allowance £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn £0.03bn
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit £0.51bn £0.52bn £0.53bn £0.54bn £0.56bn £0.57bn £0.59bn
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme £0.61bn £0.62bn £0.64bn £0.65bn £0.67bn £0.69bn £0.70bn
War Widow's or Widower's Pension £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Child Benefit £16.24bn £16.91bn £17.33bn £17.74bn £18.17bn £18.61bn £19.05bn
Scottish Child Payment £0.50bn £0.52bn £0.53bn £0.55bn £0.56bn £0.57bn £0.58bn
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual) £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Healthy Start vouchers £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn £0.05bn
Maternity Allowance £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Statutory Maternity Pay £3.32bn £3.41bn £3.49bn £3.57bn £3.66bn £3.75bn £3.84bn
Statutory Paternity Pay £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Statutory Sick Pay £1.13bn £1.16bn £1.19bn £1.22bn £1.25bn £1.28bn £1.31bn
Sure Start Maternity Grant £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn £0.01bn
Bereavement Support Payment £0.67bn £0.69bn £0.70bn £0.72bn £0.74bn £0.76bn £0.78bn
Tax-Free Childcare £0.55bn £0.56bn £0.57bn £0.58bn £0.60bn £0.61bn £0.59bn
Extended childcare entitlement £2.66bn £3.14bn £3.23bn £3.30bn £3.38bn £3.47bn £3.55bn
Universal childcare entitlement £3.32bn £3.59bn £3.69bn £3.78bn £3.88bn £3.99bn £4.08bn
Targeted childcare entitlement £0.57bn £0.60bn £0.62bn £0.63bn £0.65bn £0.66bn £0.67bn
Care to Learn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Childcare Grant £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Parents' Learning Allowance £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn £0.20bn
Adult Dependants' Grant £0.06bn £0.06bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn £0.04bn
Travel Grant £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
NHS spending £204.68bn £205.46bn £206.22bn £207.04bn £207.96bn £208.89bn £209.79bn
State education spending £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn £0.02bn
Transport subsidy spending £25.15bn £25.25bn £25.34bn £25.44bn £25.55bn £25.67bn £25.78bn
Cost-of-living support payment £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Energy Bills Rebate £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Basic income £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Disability basic income £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Other public spending budget change £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Caseloads: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
State Pension 11,308k 11,208k 10,906k 10,812k 10,860k 10,908k 10,955k
Pension Credit 1,491k 1,489k 1,478k 1,459k 1,459k 1,457k 1,453k
Winter Fuel Payment 7,092k 7,011k 6,601k 6,517k 6,493k 6,381k 6,254k
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland) 806k 807k 807k 805k 809k 812k 816k
Universal Credit 6,371k 6,379k 6,409k 6,420k 6,395k 6,387k 6,371k
Housing Benefit 1,254k 1,252k 1,254k 1,240k 1,245k 1,247k 1,249k
Council Tax Reduction 3,186k 3,211k 3,224k 3,245k 3,264k 3,280k 3,293k
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related) 187k 188k 188k 189k 190k 190k 191k
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based) 722k 724k 727k 730k 733k 737k 740k
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based) 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based) 67k 67k 68k 68k 68k 69k 69k
Income Support 25k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Working Tax Credit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Child Tax Credit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Incapacity Benefit 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Personal Independence Payment 3,581k 3,595k 3,608k 3,623k 3,639k 3,655k 3,671k
Disability Living Allowance 1,296k 1,301k 1,306k 1,311k 1,317k 1,323k 1,329k
Attendance Allowance 1,701k 1,708k 1,714k 1,721k 1,729k 1,736k 1,744k
Carer's Allowance 1,038k 1,042k 1,046k 1,050k 1,055k 1,059k 1,064k
Carer Support Payment (Scotland) 71k 72k 72k 72k 73k 73k 73k
Carer's Allowance Supplement (Scotland) 0k 72k 72k 72k 73k 73k 73k
Severe Disablement Allowance 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k 4k
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit 137k 138k 139k 139k 140k 140k 141k
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme 94k 94k 94k 95k 95k 95k 96k
War Widow's or Widower's Pension 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Child Benefit 8,137k 8,166k 8,186k 8,216k 8,250k 8,283k 8,315k
Scottish Child Payment 352k 354k 355k 356k 357k 358k 357k
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual) 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Healthy Start vouchers 200k 201k 202k 203k 204k 204k 205k
Maternity Allowance 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Statutory Maternity Pay 334k 335k 336k 338k 339k 341k 342k
Statutory Paternity Pay 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Statutory Sick Pay 182k 183k 183k 184k 185k 186k 186k
Sure Start Maternity Grant 26k 26k 26k 27k 27k 27k 27k
Bereavement Support Payment 98k 98k 99k 99k 100k 100k 101k
Tax-Free Childcare 1,017k 1,028k 1,028k 1,033k 1,034k 1,038k 1,023k
Extended childcare entitlement 665k 671k 675k 677k 682k 686k 687k
Universal childcare entitlement 986k 989k 992k 997k 1,002k 1,013k 1,015k
Targeted childcare entitlement 119k 120k 120k 121k 121k 122k 121k
Care to Learn 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Childcare Grant 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Parents' Learning Allowance 98k 99k 99k 100k 100k 100k 101k
Adult Dependants' Grant 18k 18k 12k 13k 13k 13k 13k
Travel Grant 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Disabled Students' Allowance suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Cost-of-living support payment 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Energy Bills Rebate 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Basic income 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Disability basic income 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k 0k
Government balance, each component counted once: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Government receipts, each component once £899.38bn £939.24bn £976.19bn £1,009.39bn £1,045.66bn £1,082.61bn £1,123.48bn
Government spending £536.24bn † £550.46bn † £556.58bn † £563.62bn † £572.16bn † £581.38bn † £590.56bn †
Government balance, each receipt once £363.14bn † £388.79bn † £419.61bn † £445.77bn † £473.51bn † £501.22bn † £532.92bn †
Benefits in household_benefits but not in gov_spending £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn £0.00bn
Model totals: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
gov_tax £902.51bn £942.37bn £979.32bn £1,012.52bn £1,048.79bn £1,085.74bn £1,126.61bn
household_tax £496.17bn £522.66bn £548.45bn £570.64bn £592.85bn £617.30bn £644.01bn
pre_budget_change_household_tax £488.34bn £514.54bn £540.10bn £561.60bn £583.57bn £607.76bn £634.11bn
gov_spending £536.24bn † £550.46bn † £556.58bn † £563.62bn † £572.16bn † £581.38bn † £590.56bn †
household_benefits £536.24bn † £550.46bn † £556.58bn † £563.62bn † £572.16bn † £581.38bn † £590.56bn †
gov_balance £366.27bn † £391.92bn † £422.74bn † £448.90bn † £476.64bn † £504.35bn † £536.05bn †
Components the model counts twice: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
corporate_sdlt, counted again inside expected_sdlt £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn £3.13bn
Household income totals: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Household market income £1,657.06bn £1,719.25bn £1,771.68bn £1,821.99bn £1,872.88bn £1,930.99bn £2,001.98bn
Household net income £1,657.86bn † £1,706.28bn † £1,737.92bn † £1,772.03bn † £1,808.11bn † £1,849.73bn † £1,901.48bn †
Household net income (HBAI definition) £1,466.42bn £1,513.07bn £1,545.11bn £1,578.08bn £1,612.10bn £1,651.13bn £1,701.58bn
Population: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
People 69,514k 69,778k 70,036k 70,316k 70,626k 70,944k 71,249k
Benefit units 35,247k 35,381k 35,512k 35,654k 35,811k 35,972k 36,127k
Households 31,167k 31,285k 31,401k 31,526k 31,665k 31,808k 31,944k
Poverty rates: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone 15.9% 15.0% 15.5% 15.6% 15.7% 15.8% 15.8%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children 23.7% 20.9% 21.6% 21.4% 21.6% 21.8% 21.7%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 13.8% 13.4% 14.0% 14.1% 14.2% 14.3% 14.3%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 13.7% 13.2% 13.3% 13.5% 13.6% 13.7% 13.7%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone 21.1% 20.6% 21.3% 21.5% 21.9% 22.2% 22.3%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children 32.1% 30.2% 30.9% 31.1% 31.7% 32.3% 32.5%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 19.6% 19.4% 20.2% 20.4% 20.8% 21.0% 21.0%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 12.8% 12.6% 12.6% 13.1% 13.4% 13.4% 13.4%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone 16.9% 16.4% 16.4% 16.6% 16.6% 16.7% 16.7%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children 25.6% 23.5% 23.2% 23.2% 23.2% 23.2% 23.2%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 14.4% 14.4% 14.6% 14.8% 14.9% 15.0% 14.9%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 15.0% 14.9% 14.4% 14.7% 14.3% 14.3% 14.6%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone 21.7% 21.3% 21.4% 21.5% 21.7% 21.9% 22.0%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children 33.0% 31.6% 31.0% 31.1% 31.5% 31.6% 32.0%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 20.0% 20.0% 20.3% 20.4% 20.6% 20.8% 20.9%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 13.7% 13.1% 12.8% 13.0% 12.8% 12.9% 13.2%
People in poverty: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone 11,051k 10,435k 10,856k 10,959k 11,091k 11,220k 11,234k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children 3,558k 3,141k 3,261k 3,253k 3,298k 3,334k 3,335k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 5,860k 5,735k 6,068k 6,164k 6,235k 6,314k 6,321k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 1,634k 1,559k 1,527k 1,543k 1,558k 1,572k 1,579k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone 14,663k 14,362k 14,907k 15,144k 15,491k 15,755k 15,874k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children 4,809k 4,555k 4,676k 4,719k 4,835k 4,939k 4,994k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 8,333k 8,323k 8,775k 8,931k 9,122k 9,275k 9,329k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 1,521k 1,484k 1,456k 1,493k 1,533k 1,541k 1,551k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone 11,780k 11,459k 11,518k 11,656k 11,703k 11,827k 11,874k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children 3,840k 3,536k 3,504k 3,522k 3,540k 3,552k 3,563k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults 6,154k 6,157k 6,353k 6,461k 6,528k 6,633k 6,625k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners 1,786k 1,766k 1,661k 1,673k 1,636k 1,643k 1,686k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone 15,110k 14,866k 14,956k 15,109k 15,320k 15,517k 15,691k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children 4,948k 4,756k 4,684k 4,715k 4,795k 4,840k 4,914k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults 8,531k 8,560k 8,793k 8,917k 9,065k 9,191k 9,254k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners 1,631k 1,551k 1,479k 1,477k 1,460k 1,486k 1,523k
Inequality: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Gini coefficient, equivalised HBAI income before housing costs 0.3074 0.3052 0.3066 0.3072 0.3078 0.3084 0.3094
Mean household net income in each side's own deciles: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household £17,700 † £17,996 † £17,934 † £17,992 † £18,328 † £18,507 † £18,680 †
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household £28,323 † £29,102 † £28,705 † £28,983 † £29,330 † £29,734 † £30,318 †
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household £34,630 † £35,808 † £36,446 † £37,019 † £37,221 † £37,812 † £38,493 †
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household £39,334 † £40,803 † £41,758 † £42,693 † £43,435 † £44,025 † £44,926 †
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household £44,856 † £46,150 † £47,077 † £47,439 † £48,027 † £49,181 † £50,036 †
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household £47,926 † £49,328 † £50,286 † £51,170 † £52,167 † £52,950 † £54,200 †
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household £56,322 † £57,590 † £58,476 † £59,426 † £60,151 † £61,626 † £62,896 †
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household £69,267 † £70,356 † £71,672 † £72,810 † £74,351 † £75,797 † £77,578 †
Decile 9: mean household_net_income per household £79,648 † £81,992 † £83,192 † £84,486 † £86,056 † £87,570 † £90,645 †
Decile 10: mean household_net_income per household £117,618 † £120,489 † £122,421 † £124,552 † £126,802 † £129,073 † £131,887 †
Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance): head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp £6.21bn £6.50bn £6.70bn £6.90bn £7.11bn £7.34bn £7.62bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp £3.54bn £3.82bn £4.05bn £4.27bn £4.49bn £4.76bn £4.96bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year £-3.83bn £-3.96bn £-4.03bn £-4.10bn £-4.19bn £-4.29bn £-2.02bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child £-2.00bn £-1.76bn £-1.64bn £-1.54bn £-1.44bn £-1.34bn £-1.24bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20% £-20.54bn £-21.10bn £-21.45bn £-21.88bn £-21.96bn £-22.33bn £-22.79bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10% £11.06bn £11.51bn £11.83bn £12.14bn £12.47bn £12.81bn £13.29bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp £25.01bn £25.68bn £26.29bn £26.92bn £27.58bn £28.26bn £28.95bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp £2.83bn £3.07bn £3.27bn £3.47bn £3.67bn £3.91bn £4.23bn
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10% £-3.04bn £-3.17bn £-3.24bn £-3.32bn £-3.37bn £-3.42bn £-3.47bn
Raise the State Pension by 10% £-7.81bn £-8.07bn £-7.99bn £-8.11bn £-8.36bn £-8.66bn £-9.02bn
Standard reforms: change in each reform's target: head levels
Measure (head) 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp: change in income_tax £6.36bn £6.65bn £6.86bn £7.07bn £7.28bn £7.52bn £7.80bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp: change in income_tax £3.55bn £3.83bn £4.06bn £4.28bn £4.50bn £4.77bn £4.97bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year: change in income_tax £-3.96bn £-4.10bn £-4.19bn £-4.26bn £-4.36bn £-4.47bn £-1.77bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child: change in child_benefit £2.34bn £2.15bn £2.03bn £1.92bn £1.82bn £1.71bn £1.59bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%: change in universal_credit £20.53bn £21.09bn £21.44bn £21.87bn £21.95bn £22.32bn £22.78bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%: change in national_insurance £11.33bn £11.79bn £12.13bn £12.44bn £12.78bn £13.13bn £13.62bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp: change in vat £25.01bn £25.68bn £26.29bn £26.92bn £27.58bn £28.26bn £28.95bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax £2.83bn £3.07bn £3.27bn £3.47bn £3.67bn £3.91bn £4.23bn
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%: change in universal_credit £3.04bn £3.17bn £3.25bn £3.32bn £3.37bn £3.43bn £3.47bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%: change in state_pension £10.72bn £11.23bn £11.37bn £11.62bn £12.08bn £12.54bn £13.07bn

MaxGhenis added a commit that referenced this pull request Oct 22, 2026
@MaxGhenis @claude
Merge origin/cb-qyp-school-leaver-routes into ctc-qyp-school-leaver-r…
4a88450 
…outes

Brings in #2299 on main with #2279 and #2387.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
MaxGhenis and others added 4 commits October 21, 2026 21:53
@MaxGhenis @claude
Drop the comments that said a school leaver is not an HB young person
4772258 
Three comments still said the Housing Benefit cap exceptions leave out a
16-year-old in neither non-advanced education nor approved training
(#2287). Under reg. 4 the model's Child Benefit qualifying young person
now counts every 16-year-old for the year, whatever their education, so
the exceptions and the cap rate agree on them. Comments and documentation
only; no formula changes.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis @claude
Place other_members_with_awards outside the reg 5(1)(a) route too
560005c 
#2549 added other_members_with_awards ("As other_members") for the young
singles and working parents properties. It draws a 16-60-year-old outside
education, but unlike other_members it did not set
is_before_first_september_following_16th_birthday false. A drawn
16-year-old was therefore a UC qualifying young person, so the family
changed. In the shrunk case, a single 19-year-old in Wales with GBP 12,000
earnings, housing_benefit_applicable_income went from GBP 11,740 to 0, and
the two properties failed.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis @claude
Count a 16-year-old school leaver in the benefit cap property oracle
8a5980c 
reference_specified_benefit counted the school-leaver role as a young
person for Universal Credit only, matching the old model, where the
Child Benefit qualifying young person (and so Housing Benefit's young
person, reg. 19) had no route for a 16-year-old who has left education.
Under reg. 4 they are one for the year, so their DLA, PIP, AFIP or carer
benefit lifts the Housing Benefit cap too, as the formula now gives.
Neither scheme counts one receiving benefits in their own right.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis
Merge remote-tracking branch 'origin/uc-pc-qyp-sixteen-route' into cb…
e53c1eb 
…-qyp-school-leaver-routes
@MaxGhenis MaxGhenis mentioned this pull request Oct 22, 2026
Draft
@MaxGhenis

MaxGhenis commented Oct 22, 2026

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Parked until after the 28 October Budget under the UK hub's Budget triage (04:10Z 22 Oct: the QYP set is not Budget-material). Status at e53c1eb:

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Child Benefit qualifying young person omits the school-leaver conditions (Child Benefit (General) Regulations 2006 regs 4, 5 and 7)

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@MaxGhenis